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Pima County, Arizona Impact Fee Update Land Use Assumptions Final Public Report Prepared by Prepared for 333 East Wetmore Road, Suite 450 Tucson, AZ 85705 201 North Stone Avenue Tucson, AZ 85701 January 22, 2020
Transcript
Page 1: Final Public Report - webcms.pima.gov€¦ · 22/1/2020  · South 210 8% Southeast 862 32% West 714 27% TOTAL 2,674 100% 3.1.3. 10-Year Land Use Assumptions: Residential There were

Pima County, Arizona

Impact Fee Update

Land Use Assumptions

Final Public Report

Prepared by

Prepared for

333 East Wetmore Road, Suite 450

Tucson, AZ 85705

201 North Stone Avenue

Tucson, AZ 85701

January 22, 2020

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Pima County Board of Supervisors

Ally Miller – District 1

Ramon Valadez – District 2

Sharon Bronson – District 3

Steve Christy – District 4

Richard Elias (Chair) – District 5

Key Staff

Ana Olivares, P.E., Transportation Director

Kathryn Skinner, P.E., Transportation Deputy Director

Yves Khawam, PhD, Assistant County Administrator for Public Works

Jonathan Crowe, Principal Planner

Project Consultants

Psomas

333 East Wetmore Road, Suite 450

Tucson, AZ 85705

520-292-2300

Prime Consultant – All Tasks

Curtis Lueck & Associates

5640 West Four Barrel Court

Tucson, AZ 85743

Advisor – All Tasks

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION _________________________________________________________ 1

Allocation of Growth within Service Areas __________________________________ 1

2. EXISTING SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS ___________________________________ 4

Population and Housing _________________________________________________ 4

Employment ___________________________________________________________ 5

3. LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS ________________________________________________ 6

Residential Growth Assumptions _________________________________________ 6

3.1.1. PAG Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) ..................................................... 6

3.1.2. Permits ..................................................................................................................... 7

3.1.3. 10-Year Land Use Assumptions: Residential ............................................................ 7

Employment Growth Assumptions ________________________________________ 9

3.2.1. PAG Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) ..................................................... 9

3.2.2. PAG Regional Mobility and Accessibility Plan (RMAP) ............................................10

3.2.3. 10-Year Land Use Assumptions: Employment.........................................................11

4. SUMMARY _____________________________________________________________ 12

APPENDIX

List of Preparers

January 2015 – May 2018 Permits

2017-2022 TIP Population Growth

2017-2022 TIP Employment Growth

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Exhibit 1. Streets Service Areas ................................................................................................................................. 3

Exhibit 2. Population and Housing Units Census Data ............................................................................................. 4

Exhibit 3. 2013-2018 Population Growth Estimates for Pima County Jurisdictions................................................. 5

Exhibit 4. 2017 Employment Data .............................................................................................................................. 5

Exhibit 5. TIP (2017-2022) Estimated Household Growth ........................................................................................ 7

Exhibit 6. 2015-2018 Residential Permits in Unincorporated Pima County ............................................................. 7

Exhibit 7. 2009-2018 Residential Permits per Year in Unincorporated Pima County.............................................. 8

Exhibit 8. Population and Housing Land Use Assumptions: 10-Year Growth ......................................................... 9

Exhibit 9. TIP (2017-2022) Estimated Employment Growth ................................................................................... 10

Exhibit 10. Existing Jobs in Unincorporated Pima County (March 2018) ............................................................... 10

Exhibit 11. Employment Land Use Assumptions: 10-Year Growth ........................................................................ 11

Exhibit 12. Residential and Employment Land Use Assumptions: 10-Year Growth ............................................. 12

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1. INTRODUCTION

The Roadway Development Impact Fee in unincorporated Pima County is assessed for new

developments to offset some of the infrastructure costs associated with growth. The County

currently charges fees for one public category: roadways. To continue assessing and collecting

fees, the County must update its program to comply with the new state statute ARS §11-1102.

The update of the Roadway Development Impact Fee program includes preparation of new

development impact fee studies, project lists, fee schedules, and county ordinance.

The statute ARS §11-1102 limits the types of “necessary public services” which impact fees can

fund. Before assessing the development fees, a County must release to the public a written report

of the land use assumptions and an infrastructure improvements plan (IIP) for each fee category.

As defined in ARS §11-1102 (V)(6), “‘Land use assumptions’ means projections of changes in

land uses, densities, intensities and population for a specified service area over a period of at

least ten years and pursuant to the general plan of the county.”

This report is a required document that identifies the land use assumptions to be applied in the

IIP for roads, and the subsequent calculation of development impact fee rates. These land use

assumptions are used to estimate the amount of new development within the service areas from

which development impact fees will be assessed. The land use assumptions generally reflect the

regional plans, such as the Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) and the Regional Mobility

and Accessibility Plan (RMAP), and the region’s suballocation of population forecast to the

County.

ALLOCATION OF GROWTH WITHIN SERVICE AREAS

As defined in ARS §11-1102 (V)(9), “‘Service area’ means any specified area within the

boundaries of a county in which development will be served by necessary public services or facility

expansions and within which a substantial nexus exists between the necessary public services or

facility expansions and the development being served as prescribed in the infrastructure

improvements plan.”

Under the current impact fee program, there are ten service areas in unincorporated Pima County:

Altar Valley, Avra Valley, Catalina Foothills, Cañada del Oro, San Xavier, Santa Cruz, Silverbell-

Tortolita, Southeast, Southwest, and Tucson Mountains.

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The County reviewed the existing service areas and modified the boundaries to better align

development patterns and projects and to ensure a substantial nexus as required by the statute.

By statute, “development fees should result in a beneficial use to the development” paying the

fee. The new program generally excludes federal lands, tribal lands, and other conservation

areas that are not expected to be developed. As a guideline, major roadways and topographic

features such as railroads and Central Arizona Project (CAP) canals were considered when

delineating service areas. A map of the seven proposed service areas in unincorporated Pima

County is shown in Exhibit 1.

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Exhibit 1. Streets Service Areas

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2. EXISTING SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS

POPULATION AND HOUSING

Although Pima County is the second most populous county in Arizona, its population has been

growing slower than the state population in the recent years. Based on the US Census Bureau

population estimates, population in the County experienced 4.2% growth from 2013-2018 (0.82%

per year), compared to 8.1% for the state overall (1.57% per year). General population and

housing data from the 2013-2017 American Community Survey (ACS)1 from the US Census

Bureau are shown in Exhibit 2.

Exhibit 2. Population and Housing Units Census Data

Pima County Arizona

Population, 2018 estimate (US Census Estimate) 1,027,502 7,171,646

Population, 2013 estimate (US Census Estimate) 997,437 6,634,999

Population, annual percent change +0.82% +1.57%

Housing units, 2017 estimate (ACS) 453,948 2,941,894

Homeownership rate, 2017 (ACS) 61.9% 63.1%

Housing units in multi-unit structures, percent, 2017 (ACS) 21.8% 20.3%

Median value of owner-occupied housing units, 2017 (ACS) $166,300 $193,200

Households, 2017 (ACS) 398,530 2,482,311

Persons per household, 2017 (ACS) 2.53 2.74

The Arizona Department of Economic Security has official population projections for the state,

counties, incorporated places, and selected census designated areas. Exhibit 3 shows estimated

population growth for each jurisdiction in Pima County from 2013 to 20182.

1 2013-2017 American Community Survey. US Census Bureau. <www.census.gov> 2 2016-2050 Projections. https://population.az.gov/sites/default/files/documents/files/pop-prj-04019inc-16-50.xlsx

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Exhibit 3. 2013-2018 Population Growth Estimates for Pima County Jurisdictions

Jurisdiction Annual Growth

Marana 3.7%

Oro Valley 1.8%

Sahuarita 2.3%

South Tucson 0.4%

Tucson 0.7%

Unincorporated Pima County 0.6%

EMPLOYMENT

The 2013-2017 American Community survey estimates that 4.9% of the population 16 years and

over in labor force is unemployed in Pima County, compared to 4.2% in the state. The 2017

employment data in Exhibit 4 is provided by the US Census Bureau.

Exhibit 4. 2017 Employment Data

Pima County Arizona

Employment Status, 2017 (ACS) Estimate Percent Estimate Percent

Population 16 years and over 814,161 - 5,371,341 -

In labor force 478,706 58.8% 3,197,116 59.5%

Civilian labor force 473,482 58.2% 3,179,802 59.2%

Employed 433,478 53.2% 2,953,891 55.0%

Unemployed 40,004 4.9% 225,911 4.2%

Armed Forces 5,224 0.6% 17,314 0.3%

Not in labor force 335,455 41.2% 2,174,225 40.5%

Civilian labor force 473,482 - 3,179,802 -

% Civilian Labor Force Unemployed - 8.4% - 7.1%

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3. LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS

The land use assumptions for a 10-year horizon are based on the estimated growth in population

and employment in unincorporated Pima County. Growth for both residential and non-residential

(commercial) areas was estimated for each service area to determine the percentage of overall

County growth which is eligible for inclusion in the IIP. The 10-year planning period will be from

2019 to 2029. The following sections discuss the information and methodology used to develop

the land use assumptions. The PAG (Pima Association of Governments) Transportation

Improvement Program (TIP) and Regional Mobility and Accessibility Plan (RMAP), historic permit

information, and other sources were used to inform the development of the growth assumptions

RESIDENTIAL GROWTH PROJECTIONS

3.1.1. PAG Transportation Improvement Program (TIP)

Trends from the Pima Association of Governments (PAG) were evaluated to assist the

development of land use assumptions for unincorporated Pima County. PAG maintains a model

of existing conditions as well as a model representing the regional transportation network

incorporating the planned 5-year Transportation Improvement Program3 (TIP) projects. This

document references the 2017 to 2022 TIP.

PAG provided population estimates for each Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) in the region.

An average household size of 2.46 people per household was assumed to convert population into

number of households. Exhibit 5 shows the 2017-2022 TIP estimated 5-year household growth

for each of the proposed service areas.

3 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP). Pima Association of Governments.

<https://www.pagnet.org/Programs/TransportationPlanning/PlansandPrograms/TransportationImprovementProgram/tabid/172/Default.aspx>

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Exhibit 5. TIP (2017-2022) Estimated Household Growth

Service Area New HH* % New HH

Central 2,267 20%

North 1,776 16%

Northeast 485 4%

Northwest 524 5%

South 579 5%

Southeast 2,514 23%

West 2,943 27%

TOTAL 11,086 100%

*TIP Households includes TAZs that are partially

in the County even if most households are in City

or other municipality

3.1.2. Permits

The historic number of permits from January 2015 to May 2018 was used to guide the estimation

of housing growth in the region. Exhibit 6 shows the residential permits in each of the proposed

service areas.

Exhibit 6. 2015-2018 Residential Permits in Unincorporated Pima County

Service Area Permits % Permits

Central 10 0.4%

North 407 15%

Northeast 407 15%

Northwest 64 2%

South 210 8%

Southeast 862 32%

West 714 27%

TOTAL 2,674 100%

3.1.3. 10-Year Land Use Assumptions: Residential

There were 2,674 total residential permits issued in unincorporated Pima County from January

2015 to May 2018, which means approximately 783 permits were issued each year. However,

as shown in exhibit 7, the number of permits has been slowly increasing to a little over 1,000

permits in 2018 (annualized based in January-May data).

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Therefore, it is assumed that the long term trend is for permits to stabilize at approximately 1,000

permits per year, which means that it is estimated that approximately 10,000 new permits will be

issued in a 10-year period in the County.

Exhibit 7. 2009-2018 Residential Permits per Year in Unincorporated Pima County

*2018 permits based on annualized January to May data

The proportion of new permits in each service area was estimated based on historic permits, the

estimated growth from the 2017-2022 TIP, and knowledge of planned and expected

developments. The proposed residential growth for each service area as estimated based on the

available data and knowledge of regional trends and expected development is shown in Exhibit

8, along with the historic permit and PAG TIP data for reference.

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Exhibit 8. Population and Housing Land Use Assumptions: 10-Year Growth

HISTORIC PERMITS

01/15-05/18

PAG TIP 2017-22* PROPOSED 10-YR

GROWTH

Service Area Permits % Permits New HH % New HH Permits % Permits

Central 10 0.4% 2,267 20% 900 9%

North 407 15% 1,776 16% 1,700 17%

Northeast 407 15% 485 4% 900 9%

Northwest 64 2% 524 5% 400 4%

South 210 8% 579 5% 600 6%

Southeast 862 32% 2,514 23% 2,900 29%

West 714 27% 2,943 27% 2,600 26%

TOTAL 2,674 100% 11,086 100% 10,000 100%

*TIP Households includes TAZs that are partially in the County even if most households are in

City or other municipality

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH PROJECTIONS

3.2.1. PAG Transportation Improvement Program (TIP)

Employment projections are also important to estimate the amount of new infrastructure needed

to serve planned new development at each service area. The PAG TIP data includes five-year

(2017-2022) estimates of the number of employees for each Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ)

in the region. Exhibit 9 shows the TIP estimated employment growth for the proposed service

areas.

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Exhibit 9. TIP (2017-2022) Estimated Employment Growth

Service Area New Jobs* % New Jobs

Central 3,534 26%

North 4,294 32%

Northeast 1,245 9%

Northwest 512 4%

South 715 5%

Southeast 853 6%

West 2,465 18%

TOTAL 13,618 100%

*TIP Employment includes TAZs that are

partially in the County even if most households

are in City or other municipality

3.2.2. PAG Regional Mobility and Accessibility Plan (RMAP)

The Pima Association of Governments (PAG) updates its long-range Regional Mobility and

Accessibility Plan4 (RMAP) every four years. The current RMAP was formally adopted by PAG’s

Regional Council on May 26, 2016 and identifies projects, goals, and performance measures for

the transportation system of the Tucson metropolitan area over the next 30 years (2045). The

RMAP includes information on existing (2018) number of jobs in unincorporated Pima County by

sector, as shown in Exhibit 10.

Exhibit 10. Existing Jobs in Unincorporated Pima County (March 2018)

Sector Industrial Retail Office Total

Existing 19,771 9,774 53,328 82,873

% Existing Jobs 24% 12% 64% 100%

The RMAP data was evaluated to help guide the projected distribution of employment in the

various sectors (industrial, retail, office).

4 Regional Mobility and Accessibility Plan (RMAP). Pima Association of Governments.

<https://www.pagregion.com/documents/rmap/rmap2045/2045RMAP.pdf>

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3.2.3. 10-Year Land Use Assumptions: Employment

Based on the 2017 third quarter forecast by the University of Arizona Economic and Business

Research Center5 (EBRC), a 0.95% annual growth in jobs was estimated in unincorporated Pima

County. The proposed employment growth is also consistent with the most recent EBRC forecast

(May 2019) for the County as a whole of 0.9% per year from 2017-2022. Currently there are

82,873 existing jobs in unincorporated Pima County; therefore approximately 8,245 new jobs are

expected in a 10-year period.

Three non-residential employment sectors are considered in this report: retail, office and

industrial. Based on the 2017-2022 TIP employment growth, the existing distribution of jobs by

sector, and discussions with the County concerning planned and expected development, the

projected number of jobs for the region is shown in Exhibit 11. The TIP job projections are

included in the exhibit for reference.

Exhibit 11. Employment Land Use Assumptions: 10-Year Growth

PAG TIP

2017-22*

PROPOSED

10-YR

GROWTH

% Jobs by Land Use Jobs by Land Use

Service

Area

New

Jobs

%

Jobs Jobs

%

Jobs Ind Retail Office Ind Retail Office

Central 3,534 26% 1,731 21% 63% 3% 34% 1,091 52 589

North 4,294 32% 1,731 21% 25% 15% 60% 433 260 1,039

Northeast 1,245 9% 907 11% 5% 13% 82% 45 118 744

Northwest 512 4% 247 3% 60% 3% 37% 148 7 92

South 715 5% 412 5% 30% 10% 60% 124 41 247

Southeast 853 6% 1,484 18% 30% 25% 45% 445 371 668

West 2,465 18% 1,731 21% 15% 14% 71% 260 242 1,229

TOTAL 13,618 100% 8,245 100% 2,546 1,092 4,607

*TIP Employment includes TAZs that are partially in the County even if most households are in City or

other municipality

5University of Arizona Economic and Business Research Center <https://ebr.eller.arizona.edu/>

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4. SUMMARY

This report provides 10-year growth projections for unincorporated Pima County for the purposes

of the roadway impact fee study update. The estimated population and employment growth data

for 2029 conditions is provided in Exhibit 12.

Exhibit 12. Residential and Employment Land Use Assumptions: 10-Year Growth

Service Area Permits Jobs by Land Use

Ind Retail Office

Central 900 1,091 52 589

North 1,700 433 260 1,039

Northeast 900 45 118 744

Northwest 400 148 7 92

South 600 124 41 247

Southeast 2,900 445 371 668

West 2,600 260 242 1,229

TOTAL 10,000 2,546 1,092 4,607

These assumed land assumptions will be used in the infrastructure improvements plan (IIP) to

estimate the amount of new facilities needed to serve the projected new development. ARS §9-

463.05 (D)(3) requires the land use assumptions to be updated at least every five years.

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APPENDIX

• List of Preparers

• January 2015 – May 2018 Permits

• 2017-2022 TIP Population Growth Map by TAZ

• 2017-2022 TIP Employment Growth by TAZ

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List of Preparers

Staff Participants

Ana Olivares, P.E., Transportation Director

Kathryn Skinner, P.E., Transportation Deputy Director

Yves Khawam, PhD, Assistant County Administrator for Public Works

Jonathan Crowe, Principal Planner

Psomas

Alejandro Angel, PhD, P.E., PTOE, RSP, ENV SP

Luana Broshears, PhD, P.E., RSP

Darlene Danehy, P.E., PTOE, RSP, ENV SP

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WEST(714 Permits)

[$4,217,471.00]SOUTHEAST(862 Permits)

[$5,028,585.00]

NORTHWEST(64 Permits)[$393,760.00]

SOUTH(210 Permits)

[$1,221,152.00]

NORTHEAST(407 Permits)

[$2,356,104.00]

NORTH(407 Permits)

[$2,616,828.00]

CENTRAL(10 Permits)[$80,947.00]

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Pima County Impact Fee Improvement Program01/2015 - 05/2018 Permits October 2019January 2020

Page 19: Final Public Report - webcms.pima.gov€¦ · 22/1/2020  · South 210 8% Southeast 862 32% West 714 27% TOTAL 2,674 100% 3.1.3. 10-Year Land Use Assumptions: Residential There were

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258(0)

79(110)

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Pima County Impact Fee Improvement Program2017-2022 TIP Population Growth per Square Mile by TAZ October 2019

LegendAll TAZsPopulation: 5-Year Growth/sqmi

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*Zoom in for TAZ Information:XX - TAZ(XX) - Population growth/sqmi

January 2020

Page 20: Final Public Report - webcms.pima.gov€¦ · 22/1/2020  · South 210 8% Southeast 862 32% West 714 27% TOTAL 2,674 100% 3.1.3. 10-Year Land Use Assumptions: Residential There were

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176(0)

1077(3)

974(3)

998(31)

623(7)

951(0)

175(0)

190(0)

680(5)

934(0)

832(2)

228(0)

913(0)

839(0)

487(19)

720(7)

126(0)

1090(6)

970(7)

910(0)

1015(14)

906(0)

918(0)

333(0)

959(4)

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1035(12)

867(13)

1099(3)

348(94)

295(20)

77(7)

963(2)

971(30)

317(0)

208(19)

962(1)

941(3)

983(10)

993(16)

938(6)

1025(41)

987(5)

1054(25)

945(11)

665(12)

704(1)

1083(4)

1093(0)

1092(10)

871(0)

734(3)

296(1)

870(18)

878(12)

630(38)

261(73)

937(7)

972(15)

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961(0)

1013(37)

965(1)

1082(16)

658(4)

1018(13)

886(0)

668(12)

884(0)

540(109)

1043(3)

703(11)

652(0)

865(10)

243(1)

716(2)

1080(8)

1016(18)

1007(3)

849(0)

122(17)

747(59)

712(28)

1084(11)

162(2)

718(7)

975(97)

1019(33)

1055(8)

1020(12)

1059(2)

1034(5)

82(11)

1017(12)

239(140)

988(0)

1039(3)

1104(0)

1052(23)

782(24)

634(93)

649(9)

105(2)

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644(10)

326(5)

1006(83)

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97(3)

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65(0)

1040(4)

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1000(107)

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1008(73)

967(18)

124(2)

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80(12)

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624(166)

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108(4)

935(0)

841(0)

67(20)

631(23)

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877(0)

663(12)

977(1)

79(7)

315(155)880

(1)

632(28)

625(34)

997(2)

757(25)

1046(6)

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370(72)

1097(1)

721(3)

153(0)

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713(9)

697(68)

1053(43)

620(173)

1071(67)

1060(5)

1102(2)

202(11)

1047(34)

995(0)

1089(3)

1085(8)

1072(3)1070

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1004(20)

866(3)

1079(21)1075

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270(0)

750(15)

1048(15)

1009(15)

259(273)

1022(22)

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1002(1)

578(105)

1032(258)

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382(203)

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610(61)

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380(386)

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64(1)

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1026(158)

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1024(365)

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311(216)

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258(175)

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729(135)

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1011(180)

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896(46)

1061(179)

605(31)

622(4)

375(49)

760(113)

330(0)

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227(0)

615(139)

577(329)

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Pima County Impact Fee Improvement Program2017-2022 TIP Employment Growth per Square Mile by TAZ October 2019

LegendAll TAZsEmployment: 5-Year Growth/sqmi

<= 12 - 2526 - 5051 - 100101 - 200201 - 500> 500

*Zoom in for TAZ Information:XX - TAZ(XX) - Employment growth/sqmi

January 2020


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