Final Report - ABWC

7/30/2019 Final Report - ABWC

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Report on Energy Sector Issuesand Crisis in Pakistan

May 06, 2011

Submitted to:

Rizwan Amin SheikhAssistant Professor, LUMS

Submitted by:

Bilal ShahidBS 2013, LUMS


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Research Report on Energy Sector 2

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary ...................................................................................... 3

2 Background of the Energy Sector Issue ..................................................... 4

2.1 Objectives.............................................................................................. 4

2.2 How is Energy Crisis Affecting Pakistan? .............................................. 4

3 Methodology.................................................................................................. 6

4 Findings and Analysis .................................................................................. 7

4.1 Qualitative Analysis................................................................................ 7

4.1.1 Energy Sources ..................................................................................... 7

4.1.2 .........................................................Development of the Power Sector 7

4.1.3 ...............................................International Trend in the Energy Sector 8

4.2 .............................................................................Quantitative Analysis 9

4.3 Key Challenges in solving Energy Crisis.10

5 Evaluation and Conclusion ........................................................................ 11

5.1 Link between Energy Crisis and Economy........................................... 11

5.2 ........................................Implications of the Energy and Power Crisis 11

6 Recommendations ...................................................................................... 137 References .................................................................................................. 16

Appendix A: Glossary o f Acronyms ............................................................... 16

Appendix B: L ists of Exhib its ......................................................................... 18

Appendix C: List of Regulatory Authorit ies and Power Sectors.................. 22


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1 Executive Summary

Sustaining and exploiting the energy sources within Pakistan is crucial to its economicgrowth. During the course of this research several critical needs have been identified,namely, providing more energy supplies and increasing access to modern energyservices to un-served regions and population groups in rural areas. Pakistan faces amajor challenge in terms of energy deficits and the adverse economic conditions thathave so resulted. There have been measures taken by the government to provideeconomic incentives through policies, regulations, subsidies, tariffs, prices, and taxes toimprove energy supplies and attract investment. This attempts to encourage energyconservation and efficiency improvements. However, there is still a huge gap left increating sufficient capacity to empower the private and the public sector and meet theirdemands.

A key element to solve the energy crisis may be through alternative sources of energythat have been tapped by the western counties. When comparing the methods of power

generation and development in Pakistan, the energy sector has developed variousprojects implemented as internationally best practices yet the crisis is serious andworsening. Installation of solar power, rise in prices and load shedding are a few stepstaken, but more could be done to minimize the gap between increasing demand and therather static supply.

Presently, there is a shortfall of about 3000-4000MW electricity per day. This shortageis badly affecting industry, commerce and daily life of people. Therefore, variousregulatory authorities and sectors are working together to develop a solution to thiscrisis and get Pakistan out of this turmoil.

A policy framework to meet the requirements of the expanding economy could include:adequate energy supplies; security of energy supplies; long-term viability of energysector.


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2 Background of the Energy Sector Issue

2.1 Objectives:

The aim of this report is to:

Highlight the energy sector issues and the ongoing crisis Outline the strategies and the approach implemented by the energy sector Compare and analyze the issues with international best practices

Offer appropriate recommendations in the light of the research findings

Suggest a valid conclusion based on the analysis and the facts considering thecurrent scenario

To achieve these objectives there is a need to realize that the energy sector is facing aserious issue of shortage of electricity and power. As a consequence of this crisis,economic growth has thwarted and has damaged commerce and industry.

2.2 How is Energy Crisis Affecting Pakistan?

Despite strong economic growth during the past few years and subsequent risingdemand for energy, no significant steps have been taken to install new capacity forgeneration of electrical power. By 2010, it was projected that Pakistan needs about15000MW electricity per day. Presently, it can generate approximately 11, 500 MW perday and hence there is net deficit of about 3000-4000MW per day (Haq 2008).Through frequent hours of load-shedding and planned power shutdown, manyindustries have closed and it is pointless to say that if the country wishes to continue itseconomic development and improve the quality of life of its people, it has to make

serious efforts towards framing a coherent energy policy.

There is a need to solve this crisis since the basic necessities and infrastructure is notavailable to the populous. With no electricity supply to some rural areas, there isconsequently rise in both poverty and unemployment. The industries that are shuttingdown as a result of power shortages pose a serious threat to Pakistans economy. Thisis because it gives rise to lesser exports and hence more imports, causing an evenmore negative balance of payments. Not only that, it eventually results in a high inflationrate.

With oil prices rising in the international market, electricity prices also show anincreasing trend. This puts an even more load on the regulatory authorities to providecheap sources of energy, and therefore hampers the development and expansion of theservices to meet the increasing demand.

Under such circumstances it is feared that the energy crisis may go from bad to worse.Hence, serious energy shortage, massive load-shedding and lowest ever strategic oilreserves are emerging as major risk to the economy. According to Williams and Alhajji,an energy crisis is a situation in which we have disruption in oil supplies that increasesenergy prices rapidly and threatens our economic and national security (Williams p.8).


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According to the governments own figures, by 2015, eight short years from now, energydemand in Pakistan will be nearly 22 percent greater than projected supply. By 2030,this energy shortfall will be 64 percent (Gill 2008). Table 1.2 shows how Pakistans useof energy compares to other countries around the world and the region and highlightsthe fact that it is a major energy consumer and needs sufficient supply of energy

electricity.According to Private Power and Infrastructure Boards memorandum, the total installedelectricity generation capacity in the country is about 19478 MW (PIM p.4). In the totalinstalled capacity, the share of public sector is around 70%, and the private sector is30% as seen in Figure 1. The rising share of private sector in electricity generation andpresence of some of the leading foreign and local companies in this business, areevidence that there could be huge investment in the energy sector and it is hoped thatthe crisis could be overcome.


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3 Methodology

The research was conducted using multiple sources: books; articles; online journals;magazines; and other electronic documents. The primary sources of information used

for the research mainly include books and internet sources by various authors havingprofound knowledge on energy crisis worldwide and its effect on economic growth anddevelopment.

After thoroughly reading through all the documents and reviewing facts and figures, thedata has been analyzed carefully to fit the current situation of the energy sector.

In addition to that, it has been attempted to retrieve authentic and relevant informationthrough official websites of regulatory authorities.

The hard information was gathered and then added to the relevant sections of thereport. The information was collected from multiple resources to match the trend

supported by latest statistics and report.

A rough first draft was written and was evaluated in terms of its style and content andthen a final draft was written with complete recommendations and conclusions.

The way all the documents were scrutinized is also shown in the flow chart below.

Findingjournalarticles/books

Findingnewspapermaterials

Library

Resources

Findingrelevent datato qualify theresearch

Authenticatingfacts andfigures frommultiplesources

Statistical

figures

Evaluatingrelevent

informationand linking

toappropriatesection of

report

Validating

ResearchTools


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4 Findings and Analysis

4.1 Qualitative Analysis

4.1.1 Energy Sources

Pakistan has a fairly developed energy infrastructure. A network of various power plantsand resources are used to provide energy. Figure 2.1(a) shows the primary energysupply for the country. Hydroelectric power, coal, oil, gas and nuclear fuel contribute tothe energy sector. It has been estimated that the total energy supplies were 58 milliontons oil equivalent (MTOE) in fiscal year (FY) 2006 (Hathaway 2009 p.5).

Natural gas accounts for the major supply of 51% of energy. However, Pakistan meetsless than 15% of its oil demand. Overall, the power sector accounts for 43% of energysupply as seen in Figure 2.1(b).

There are also a lot of other potential renewable energy sources that have not beentapped yet, for example, geothermal energy, tidal and wind energy. There has been aslight move towards solar energy. However, that still remains insignificant andconsidering the high initial cost of a solar panel, its large-scale use seems to be limited.

Considering the energy resource potentials in the country, only about 16% of the hydelpower has been realized and there is still huge capacity for at least, small dams to bebuilt. There are major unexploited reserves of coal in the Thar Desert in the Sindhprovince that could provide an inexpensive source of fuel (Hathaway 2009 p.9).However, the development of the coal reserves presents challenges like improvedmining and quality of coal.

Pakistan has given a high priority to tapping the local resources in the region andseveral projects for import of petroleum and natural gas from the Middle East havereceived great significance. There is, for example, a gas pipeline project with Iran thathas been implemented to cut down the energy deficits. The development of suchoptions has been constrained by sensitive security issues and large cross-borderenergy transactions (Hathaway 2009, p.10)

4.1.2 Development of the Power Sector

There is a need to realize that despite the development of the power sector, there hasstill been a gap in demand and supply of energy. The Water and Power Development

Authority (WAPDA) is responsible for hydroelectricity plants that generate electricity.However, there have been no pilot projects and no construction of large dams in therecent years. This may worsen the energy crisis as capacity of earlier dams has beenreduced.

Apart from that, foreign investment has played a key role in the development of powersector. Oil exploration companies like British Petroleum have been given incentives to


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attract foreign capital. Similarly, Pakistan has signed contracts with Independent PowerProducers (IPPs) and other international organizations to increase its power supply.

However, only 53% of Pakistans population has access to electricity. To expand accessto energy services, the Government of Pakistan has launched a number of programs.One such program is of rural electrification of villages close to the grid. This pilot projectis being carried out by WAPDA and its successor distribution companies (Weynand2007, p.30). But it will still be years before every patch in Pakistan has access tomodern energy services given the rugged terrain, the shortages of electricity, andlimited government financial resources.

4.1.3 International Trend in the Energy Sector

The overall international trend in solving energy sector issues has been to install low-cost renewable sourcesof energy. These include a wide variety of energy sources thathave been used as a suitable method to meet the energy demands. The well-adoptedsources include:

Power from Biomass- Biomass is used extensively throughout the world today.The use of fuelwood and compost is widespread in developing countries. Theuse of biomass is not contained in the Third World only-For instance, USobtains equivalent energy from biomass as it does from nuclear fuel, whileSweden derives 14% of its primary energy from biomass (Hill 1995, p.156).However, Hill also mentions that it is profitable on its operating costs and thereturns depend on the financial circumstances and economic climate (p. 158).

However, according to the 2006 energy report from the Institute of Science inSociety (ISIS), Nepal has overtaken China and India in the number of biogas

plants per capita (Ho p.8). Considering this change by a developing nation,Pakistan can also tap bio-fuels for energy production in the future.Considering that Pakistan has an agro-based economy, biomass could be apotential alternative renewable resource.

Solar Energy-Another option adopted by the western world to solve energycrisis is solar technology. It has been estimated that the continuous supply ofsolar energy to the earth is about 1011

Pakistan also experiences a hot summer and solar panels could provide asufficient source of energy and if batteries could be charged for use when thereis no sunlight.

MW (Hill p.170). There is no doubt that,in theory, solar energy could provide all future energy requirements but anumber of technical problems limit its use as a sustainable source of energy.Yet, solar panels, kits and solar pumps are being installed rapidly. It is also

noted that solar energy potential is rising in arid countries of West Asia (EnergyResearch p.125). According to the ISIS report, worldwide photovoltaicinstallations jumped by 61.5 percent to 927 MW in 2004 (Ho p.7)


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Global renewable energy markets have grown tremendously in the last few years.Annual investment in renewable energy has expanded almost four-fold from US$ 6billion in 1995 to $30 billion in 2004 (Hathaway p. 149). The success of the leadcountries in increasing the percentage of renewable power is already replicated in somedeveloping countries that have power purchasing agreements and availability of bank

financing, such as by Asian Development Bank (ADB).Other measures have also been taken by successive governments to increase theirenergy supplies. These include: commercialization of household energy technologies;financing; clean development mechanism; and quality control and subsidy support byNGOs and the private sector (Hathaway p.151). Economic policies also play a pivotalrole in maintaining a balance between demand and supply. In New Zealand, Australiaand Canada, deregulation of the electricity industry has been introduced as a way ofincreasing efficiency and reducing prices (Rothwell 2003 p.1).

Comparing this trend with the local practices, it is notedthat National Electric PowerRegulatory Authority (NEPRA), WAPDA and other regulatory authorities have failed to

incorporate any of the other renewable sources of energy except Hydel power. Theapproach to solving energy crisis has been central at increasing output power frompreviously installed plants and a couple of minor projects including installation of dams.It is disappointing to note that with all these measures, a large number of the populationin the rural areas is deprived of the basic necessity of electricity and power.

The local practices and the strategies do not follow the international trend, both in thedeveloped world as well as in the developing countries. The result is that Pakistan iscompelled to undergo severe and acute shortages of fuel, gas and electricity.

4.2 Quantitative Analysis

Despite its efforts, Pakistans energy deficits are increasing with its energy demands.The projected energy demand, assuming a GDP rate of 6.5% is summarized in Table1.1, which shows that overall the demand for energy is going to increase by factor of 3.5(Hathaway 2009, p.6).

These projections lay emphasis on the development of power resources. However, inview of the rising prices of oil in the international market, the trend in the consumptionas seen in Figure 3 also highlights an impending economic crisis as the industrial sectordominates the market by sharing 43% of the demand. This entails the government toswitch to low cost fuels, including renewable and nuclear sources. Unfortunately, this

has not been put into practice.

To quantify the difference between demand and supply, sensitivity of demand forenergy to the economic growth rate is illustrated in Figure 4. Along with that, thedemand at other alternative scenarios has also been projected to compare the impact ofGDP growth rate on the demand for energy. This highlights that over the next twenty-year period, the demand for energy under all circumstances is going to vary by morethan 25%.


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Where availability of coal, gas, hydel and nuclear energy is projected to improvesignificantly, in view of the current power projects and plans, it will not be enough tomeet the growing demand of the economy. The energy deficit of 16 MTOE or 28% ofthe energy demand is expected to rise to 62% of the demand by 2025 (Hathaway p.8).

Under these circumstances, there is a clear indication for the Government of Pakistan tosupplement the current supplies with affordable energy from reliable external sources orexplore untapped local resources.

4.3 Summary of Key Challenges in Solving Energy Crisis

The following provide an overview and summary of the challenges discussed in theanalysis:

limited government financial resources sensitive security issues

shortages of electricity

lack of energy resource to supplement the current supplies weak and unplanned local policies

rise in oil prices in the international market

lack of pilot projects in power development

energy losses


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5 Evaluation and Conclusion

5.1 Link between Energy Crisis and Economy

According to the article Energy Crisis in Pakistan, The Senate Standing Committee onWater and Power expressed disappointment on how the government has handled thepower crisis. According to the committee, the crisis has affected various sectors of theeconomy namely the agriculture, textile and manufacturing industries (Mobrez 2009).Energy crisis are, therefore, directly related to economic growth and development. Forinstance, if our exports increase, so does the number of manufactured goods and henceit puts a greater burden of energy or electricity by the industrial sector.

Therefore, energy sector issues need to be dealt with a planned policy framework.Hence, there is a need for renewable energy resources and foreign investment toincrease energy supply to meet the increasing demand.

5.2 Implications of the Energy and Power Crisis

If the energy sector issues are not resolved, serious implications of this energy crisismay aggravate the present situation. With rise in unemployment due to shutting down ofindustries, economic development comes to a halt. Not only are there adverse effectson education, transportation, commerce and industry, local households are alsoaffected.

Deprivation of Rural Areas

Apart from that, deprivation of our rural areas poses a major challenge to GOP.Electrification, therefore, increases migration and disrupts the economic sector in themajor cities. According to Barnes, rural electrification studies show that there is a strongpositive relationship between rural electrification, income, and education (Barnes 1988,p.119). These studies imply that electrification is one of the causes of higher incomeand educational levels.

Unrest and Political Instability

Not only has that, but unrest and political instability also resulted from unavailability ofelectricity. According to a news report in The Nation, inhabitants of various localitiesacted violently against the KESC officials and showed anger in many areas. In Lyari,

Karachi, for example, people protested against KESC and burnt tyres on the roads. TheLyariites often suffered with 12 to 15 hours long power outage due to some technicalcable faults in the area (Haq 2008, p.73).Such events put pressure on the PakistaniGovernment to come up with sustainable and viable solutions in order to achieve growthand development in the future.

Negative Balance of Payments and Increase in Burden of Foreign Debt


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On the utilization side of energy, the government has controlled prices and providedappropriate subsidies to keep energy inexpensive to the population and to encouragethe use of cleaner domestic fuels (e.g., using compressed natural gas for vehicles).While the social aims of the government are good, the resulting hodgepodge of priceand tariff controls, tax burdens, and untargeted subsidies have resulted in a lack of

transparency in the energy sector. This has created an increased financial burden onthe government, and the encouragement of behavior that wastes instead of conservesenergy. These problems are aggravated by the cycle of debt between state ventures,where debts are switched back and forth instead of actual funds to cover energy sales(Weynand 2007, p.30).

The reason that Pakistans population uses extensive quantities of non-commercialforms of energy, for example firewood, is that a significant portion of the populationlacks access to modern forms of energy such as electricity. This shortfall is such that in2006, the Asian Development Bank estimated that 45% of Pakistans population lackedaccess to electricity (ADB 2006a). Hence, severe and acute shortages of electrical

energy may result in future.


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6 Recommendations

Efficient Household Appliances

The government has entrusted Engineering Development Board (EDB) the task ofadopting strategies in collaboration with relevant private sector industries to enhance

the efficiencies of different energy consuming household products being produced in thecountry. The enhancement of efficiency of motors used in domestic industrial andagricultural sectors can save 3 to 5 per cent of the total electricity consumption (Ahmed2008). The government should control the quality of electrical appliances according toglobal standards to prevent energy losses and reduce costs. The use of energy saversand LED light bulbs is one such example of how effectively electricity or energy couldbe saved.

IPPs Meeting

While transmission and distribution of electricity falls solely to the two entities, WAPDAand KESC, the third and increasingly relevant source of power is the IndependentPower Producer (IPP). As the sole purchaser of power from the IPPs, WAPDAs stabilityhas been the main factor deciding the cash flows of IPPs (WEYNAND 2007, p.18). Thepower generation capacity of the IPPs is declining, the major reason of power shortfall(Haq 2008, p.48). Hence, meetings should be held to ask the IPPs to generate poweras per agreement with the government and also to extent their operations to overcomethe power shortages.

Effective Energy Conservation Plan to Combat Shortage

One area where the government is taking action is on obtaining loans to rehabilitate thetransmission and distribution networks to reduce technical losses and improve the

efficiency of operations, all of which will save energy. WAPDAs total system losseswere 25% in 2005; while KESCs total losses in 2005 were 34% (NEPRA 2006b). Well-maintained and operated systems generally have overall losses of 8-9%. Hence, acareful crash energy conservation plan should be rolled-out by the government to bridgedemand-supply gap.

Renewable Resources a MUST to Counter Energy Crisis

Realizing the significant potential for renewable energy sources to provide cleanerpower and fuels for economic growth, the Government of Pakistan created theAlternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) in 2003 to act as the central national

body on the subject of renewable energy. It attempts to facilitate, promote, andencourage development of renewable energy in Pakistan. The AEDB has also beencharged with providing electricity services to the around 8,000 villages in the Sindh andBalochistan provinces that lie too far from the national electricity grid to be economicallyserved (Nepra 2006b). Such projects should be encouraged to meet the increasingdemand of electricity. For example, a project underway is the Renewable EnergyDevelopment Sector Investment Program, which will loan up to $510 million to supportthe development of renewable energy resources in Pakistan (ADB 2006b).


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The development of solar power and bio-fuels will provide a solution to the energy crisisand help reduce the demand of electrical energy.

Load Shedding-A Short-term Solution

Pakistan experiences serious power-shortage resulting in serious power deficit that

hampers not only the development process but also poses serious threat to nationalgrowth. Heavy load shedding of power across Pakistan creates major problemsespecially for all categories of users. The present energy crisis in the country is becausewe have failed to build large dams. So through these steps we can reduce theconsumption of electricity. But this could be on short term basis in order to solve thisissue of load shedding we need a permanent solution though constructing more powerplants.

Heavy Investment Necessary

Pakistans three largest national oil companies include the Oil and Gas Development

Corporation Limited (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) and Pakistan State Oil(PSO). All three operate under joint ventures and partnerships with various internationaloil companies and other domestic firms. The Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA)regulates petroleum product distribution, including compressed natural gas for vehicles,setting safety standards and equalizing prices across the country (Weynand 2007,p.18). The Pakistani government has enacted numerous policies to encourage privatesector leadership of natural gas development, including privatization of state-runbusinesses, regulation that encourages competition and tax incentives geared towardsincreasing exploration and production.

Cross-border investments in energy and promotion of regional energy trade are

essential for achieving economic growth. For example, the gas pipeline project with Irancould provide foreign capital and serve an important step towards implementation ofother prospective pilot projects (Haq 2008).

New Generation of Power Plants

The Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB), a state-owned consulting institutionimproves investment incentives in the Pakistani power sector. The PPIB also providesguarantees to private investors for the performance of government entities (such asWAPDA), monitors litigation and international arbitration for and on behalf of thegovernment and assists the regulatory authority in determining and approving tariffs fornew private power projects.

Creating Awareness to Save Power and Energy

The private sector lacks knowledge on how to improve its energy efficiency and reduceenergy costs. While the furniture industry has been exploring solar kilns as a way tosave energy and cut costs, they are probably an exception rather than the rule. Localgovernments lack the capacity to monitor the energy use of community facilities, and


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to identify opportunities to conserve energy. Consumers and the general public are alsonot fully aware of the opportunities to make known their points of view on governmentpolicies and on energy company performance to regulators and governmentrepresentatives.

Proper Allocation of Power and Implementation of Projects

The World Bank(WB) has been involved in all segments of Pakistans power sector,financing specific investment projects as well as supporting the reform program. In2005, the WB began a loan for an Electricity Distribution and TransmissionImprovement Project. Its aim was to strengthen the electricity transmission network toreduce bottlenecks and improve system reliability and quality to reduce losses andimprove supply.More of such projects need to be implemented to allocate power to appropriate sectorsefficiently.

Other possible recommendations include: authority set up for Thar coal mining;subsidies on use of up to 200 power units; and control of electricity thefts. Theserecommendations are made considering the feasibility with respect to the circumstancesin Pakistan and its current economic situation. Keeping in view the energy crisis, it ishoped that these recommendations may help solve the energy sector issues identifiedin the research.

Bilal Shahid

06/05/11


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References

Ahmed, Amin. (2008). Energy Crisis in Pakistan. Efficient Household Appliances to

Mitigate Energy Crisis.

Asian Development Bank (2006a). Pakistan: Power Transmission Enhancement

Investment Program.

Asian Development Bank (2006b). Pakistan: Renewable Energy Development Sector

Investment Program.

Barnes, Douglas. (1988). Electric Power for Rural Growth.

Desai et al. (1986). Energy Research. Directions and issues for developing countries.

Haq, N., Hussain, K. (2008). Energy Crisis in Pakistan. Energy Crisis in Pakistan are

Growing Rapidly. 39-41.

Hathaway, R., Kugelman, M. (2009). Powering Pakistan. Meeting Pakistans Energy

needs in the 21st Century.

Hill, R. et al. (1995). The Future of Energy Use.

Ho et al. (2006). Which Energy? 2006 Institute of Science in Society Energy Report.

National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (2006b). State of Industry Report 2006.

Rothwell, G., Gomez, T. (2003). Electricity Economics. Regulation and Deregulation.

Weynand, Gordon. (2007). Energy Sector Assessment for USAID/Pakistan.

Williams, J ., Alhajji, A. (2003). The Coming Energy Crisis?


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Appendix A: Glossary o f Acronyms

AEDB Alternative Energy Development Board

FESCOFaisalabad Electric Supply Company

FY Fiscal YearGEPCO Gujranwala Electric Power CompanyGSA Gas Supply AgreementGOP Government of PakistanIESCO Islamabad Electric Supply CompanyIPP Independent Power ProducerKESC Karachi Electric Supply CorporationKm KilometerkV Kilo VoltMEPCO Multan Electric Power CompanyMW MegawattNARUC National Association of Regulatory Utility CommissionersNEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory AuthorityOGDCL Oil and Gas Development Corporation limitedOGRA Oil Gas Regulatory AuthorityPPA Power Purchase agreementPESCO Peshawar Electric Supply CompanyPPIB Private Power and Infrastructure BoardPSO Pakistan State OilQESCO Quetta Electric Supply CompanySAFIR South Asia Forum for Infrastructure RegulationSNGPL Sui Northern Gas Pipeline LimitedSSGC Sui Southern Gas Company LimitedTOE Tons Oil EquivalentWAPDA Water and Power Development Authority


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Appendix B: L ists of Exhib its

Figure 1

30%

70%

Distribut ion of Power Sector

Private Sector Public Sector


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Figure 2.1(a)

Figure 2.1(b)

Source, Figure 2.1(a), 2.1(b): Powering Pakistan, Hathaway and Kugleman (2009)

HYDRO

13%NUCLEAR

1%

OIL 28%

COAL 7%

GAS 51%

HYDRO NUCLEAR OIL COAL GAS

HYDRO29%

NUCLEAR

3%

OIL 16%

GAS 52%

HYDRO NUCLEAR OIL GAS


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Figure 3

Figure 4

Source, Figure 3 and Figure 4: Powering Pakistan, Hathaway and Kugleman(2009)

28%

2%

2%

21%

28%43%

4%

TRANSPORT

AGRICULTURAL

OTHER GOVT

DOMESTIC

TRANSPORT

INDUSTRIAL

COMMERCIAL

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Energy Demand at Various Economic Growth Rates

PROJECTED ENERGY DEMAND AT 6.5% GDP PROJECTED ENERGY DEMAND AT 7.4% GDP

PROJECTED ENERGY DEMAND AT 5.5 % GDP


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Table 1.1: Projected Energy Demand

FY06 FY15 FY25 FY06 FY15 FY25

MILLION TOE % SHARE

OIL 16 29 47 28 27 24

GAS 29 56 93 51 50 47

COAL 4 9 17 7 8 8

HYDEL 7 13 29 13 12 15

RENEWABLE - 1 5 0 1 2

NUCLEAR 1 2 7 1 2 4

TOTAL 57 110 198 100 100 100

Source: Powering Pakistan, Hathaway and Kugleman (2009)

Table 2.2: PAKISTAN ENERGY USE IN COMPARISON TO OTHER COUNTRIES[GOP 2005]

World and Regional Energy Comparison (Year 2004, 1995 USD)

Source: ENERGY SECTOR ASSESSMENT FOR USAID/PAKISTAN


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Appendix C: List of Regulatory Authorit ies and Power Sectors

Regulatory Bodies of Pakistan

OGRA PPRAPTA PEMRA

Electric & Power Sector of Pakistan

FESCO GEPCO PESCO LESCO

IESCO HESCO MEPCO QESCO

PPIB AEDB KESC

International Authorities

World Bank AsianDevelopment Bank

NARUC SAFIR

Source:www.nepra.org.pk
http://www.ogra.org.pk/http://www.ppra.org.pk/http://www.pta.gov.pk/http://www.pemra.gov.pk/http://www.fesco.com.pk/http://www.gepco.com.pk/http://www.pesco.com.pk/http://www.lesco.gov.pk/http://www.iesco.com.pk/http://www.hesco.com.pk/http://www.mepco.com.pk/http://www.qesco.com.pk/http://www.ppib.gov.pk/http://www.aedb.org/http://www.kesc.com.pk/http://www.worldbank.org/http://www.adb.org/http://www.adb.org/http://www.naruc.com/http://www.safir.com.in/http://www.nepra.org.pk/http://www.nepra.org.pk/http://www.nepra.org.pk/http://www.safir.com.in/http://www.naruc.com/http://www.adb.org/http://www.adb.org/http://www.worldbank.org/http://www.kesc.com.pk/http://www.aedb.org/http://www.ppib.gov.pk/http://www.qesco.com.pk/http://www.mepco.com.pk/http://www.hesco.com.pk/http://www.iesco.com.pk/http://www.lesco.gov.pk/http://www.pesco.com.pk/http://www.gepco.com.pk/http://www.fesco.com.pk/http://www.pemra.gov.pk/http://www.pta.gov.pk/http://www.ppra.org.pk/http://www.ogra.org.pk/

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