Final report and key messages, Bangladesh Integrated Water Resources...

Final report and key messages, Bangladesh Integrated Water Resources Assessment

WATER FOR A HEALTHY COUNTRY FLAGSHIP

Mac Kirby on behalf of the project team

Dhaka, April 2014

Scoping study 2010

Inception workshop December 2010, with feedback from participants

Inaugurated 2011 by the (then) Secretary of the Ministry of Water Resources Mr. Shaikh Md Wahid-uz-Zaman, with speeches by the DGs/EDs of BWDB, WARPO, IWM, BIDS and CEGIS.

The project

Bangladesh Integrated Water Resources Assessment

Aims:

Bring together hydrological, hydro-geological, socio-economic, climate change, social trend and other data in an integrating framework

Use the framework in (spatial) modelling to explore impact assessment for climate change and development scenarios

Communicate options for policy making that will underpin a more equitable and economically efficient use of Bangladesh’s water resources for development

The project

Partners:

BWDB, WARPO, IWM, BIDS, CEGIS and CSIRO


Study tour by MoWR, BWDB and WARPO, April 2012 (including Ms. QuamrunNahar Khanam, Additional Secretary, MoWR, Shahidur Rahman DG WARPO, K.A.M. Shahiduzzaman DG BWDB)

High level seminar, June 2012, organised by the Australian High Commission. Opened by Mr Tim Bolotnikoff, Acting High Commissioner, with Chief Guest H.E. Ramesh Chandra Sen, MP, Honourable Minister, Ministry of Water Resources and Special Guest H.E. Alhaj Md. Mahbubur Rahman, MP, Honourable State Minister, Ministry of Water Resources

Visit to Canberra by Mr Shaikh Altaf Ali, Senior Secretary Ministry of Water

Visits and meetings

Visit to Canberra by Mr Shaikh Altaf Ali, Senior Secretary Ministry of Water Resources, and Professor Dr Monowar Hossain, ED IWM.


The News Today

14th June 2012

Inception report, 2011

Final reports:

Synthesis report with overview and main messages

10 supplementary reports with details of methods and results

Papers:

Several conference papers by CSIRO and partners

Three journal papers on groundwater, irrigation and food security

Reports and papers

Three journal papers on groundwater, irrigation and food security (including climate change impacts.

More will be written.....


... Lies not in the reports, papers, seminars and so on, but in the ...

Integrated national overview of the impact of future developments (climate change, population growth and economic growth) on water related issues.

We assessed where the main challenges will be, and on what issues our current knowledge is insufficient.

We assessed, in broad, national terms, some of the key responses required to meet the challenges.

Main achievement

meet the challenges.

Importantly, we brought several organisations together in a joint effort, learned much from conducting the assessment, and are better placed to conduct the holistic research necessary for Bangladesh to meet its future water challenges.


Food security is achievable – though there will be challenges

Water is crucial to food security but land may be more limiting in the future

Groundwater use is unsustainable in some areas, and a concern in many areas

Sustainable levels of groundwater use are generally not known: this is a key knowledge gap

Increased flooding and salinity intrusion is a key climate change risk

Climate change is a key concern, and for many water related issues coping with climate variability is likely to enable coping with climate change

Overview of key issues


Water use in Dhaka is unsustainable; returning to sustainable use will include solving water quality problems

Economic development overall is unlikely to be much affected by water related climate change but the structure of the economy may be

Development is the main factor in future poverty reduction, and will enhance resilience to water related hazards


Evidence for the statement - Chapter 5 and detailed report on land use, crop production and irrigation water demand

Key issue 1: Food security is achievable – though there will be challenges


Increases in yield appear to be sufficient to maintain rice grain security

Additional yield increases may come through better varieties, new management techniques and closing the gap in low productivity areas

Key issue 1: Food security is achievable – though there will be challenges


Includes climate change impacts

Dependence of increased rice production on groundwater and shallow tubewells

Key issue 2: Water is crucial to food security but land may be more limiting in the future


But is there enough water?

New areas (SW)

More surface water - Ganges and Jamuna barrages

Change planting dates

Swap to lower water use varieties or crops


varieties or crops


But is there enough land?

Agricultural land availability is declining at about 1 % per year. If we factor that into the diagram, there is insufficient land by 2050 to achieve rice grain security in all but most optimistic scenarios.



Groundwater table falling in many places, seriously in parts of Barind and beneath Dhaka

Key issue 3: Groundwater use is unsustainable in some areas, and a concern in many areas


Unsustainable in parts of Barind and Dhaka

Detailed studies of the Barind area and Dhaka show that overpumping is the main reason - withdrawals are greater than recharge even in wetter times

Elsewhere, water tables are dropping in many areas, but less seriously

Problems with shallow tubewells and hand

Key issue 3: Groundwater use is unsustainable in some areas, and a concern in many areas

Problems with shallow tubewells and hand tubewells at end of dry season - water below suction limit


Good studies for Barind

Elsewhere not well known

Is it reducing rainfall?

Recharge from and discharge to rivers not well known

But more recharge from

Key issue 4: Sustainable levels of groundwater use are generally not known: this is a key knowledge gap

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.001000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Av

era

ge

gro

un

dw

ate

r d

ep

th (

m)

An

nu

al

Ra

infa

ll

(mm

/y

r)

Rainfall DTW Linear (Rainfall) Linear (DTW)

But more recharge from and less discharge to rivers as groundwater levels fall -will that keep areas sustainable?

If we swap to surface water, less GW recharge and more GW discharge -will it be significant?


5.001000

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Bangladesh is more vulnerable to climate change than any other country

General projections are for greater monsoon rainfall

Leads to greater projected floods in Bangladesh - increase in higher

Key issue 5: Increased flooding and salinity intrusion is a key climate change risk

Bangladesh - increase in higher flood categories partly reduces the land in low flood categories

Generally in main riverine and coastal areas

Greater risk to lives and property


Projected sea level rise and changed river flows

Greater saline intrusion in the coastal zone.

In the absence of other changes, will affect rivers, soils and groundwater

Likely impact on agriculture (was taken account of in food security projections)

Key issue 5: Increased flooding and salinity intrusion is a key climate change risk

Also likely impact on plans to develop SW for more agriculture


Key issue 6: Climate change is a key concern, and for many water related issues coping with climate variability is likely to enable coping with climate change Some recent high quality papers show that for rain and temperatures climate variability greater than projected climate change to 2050 (given the uncertainties in knowledge)

Translating this into water balance


Translating this into water balance appears to confirm the suggestion. I suspect that it is also true for river flows in Ganges and Brahmaputra

Investments over last 50 years have reduced losses and increased resilience (World Bank 2010)

Of course, remains a huge challenge

Key issue 7: Water use in Dhaka is unsustainable; returning to sustainable use will include solving water quality problems Water table falling (even furtherunder central Dhaka)

Dhaka water use is about 0.8 km3

per year, 83 % groundwater

Household demand projected to double and industrial demand to quadruple by 2050 (all demand, not


quadruple by 2050 (all demand, not just Dhaka)

N

Key issue 7: Water use in Dhaka is unsustainable; returning to sustainable use will include solving water quality problems

Water quality problems - general urban pollution (runoff, sewage), general river pollution, pollution from particular industries (tanning, dyeing)

Likely induced groundwater contamination - possibly including saline intrusion

Use of other sources of water, either directly or via enhanced aquifer recharge, will require solving water quality problems - both reducing


recharge, will require solving water quality problems - both reducing pollution and treating poor quality water

No single, obvious cheap and quick solution.

Bangladesh economy has grown at an average of about 5.5 % per year for the last 20 years or so

Projections are for a slightly greater rate of growth over next 20 years

Projected climate change scenarios reduce the growth rate by not more than 0.01 % per year (some scenarios by less)

Population growth rates higher or lower than baseline are projected to

Key issue 8: Economic development overall is unlikely to be much affected by water related climate change but the structure of the economy may be

Population growth rates higher or lower than baseline are projected to increase economic growth rate by 0.25 % or reduce it by 0.58 %

Changing agricultural productivity growth to 0.5 or 1.5 x projection reduces growth by 0.05% or increases by 0.03 %

Raising rice tariffs x 4 increases growth by 0.05 %.

The climate change impact did change the structure of the economy - less growth in domestic agricultural production, greater growth in agricuturalimports, greater growth in other sectors of the economy (manufacturing, services)


Non-agricultural employment and education in rural areas are likely to be key positive determinants of household income and reduced vulnerability to water related problems

However, poorer households and calorie consumption improve with more work in agriculture

Vulnerability to water related problems is mainly

Key issue 9: Development is the main factor in future poverty reduction

Vulnerability to water related problems is mainly tied to flood incidence, and hence most apparent in the coastal zone and in the main river flood areas

The results suggest that at the household level, the key drivers of increased resilience are likely to be general development drivers - economic growth, more employment, improvements to health, and education


Food security is achievable – though there will be challenges

Water is crucial to food security but land may be more limiting in the future

Groundwater use is unsustainable in some areas, and a concern in many areas

Sustainable levels of groundwater use are generally not known: this is a key knowledge gap

Increased flooding and salinity intrusion is a key climate change risk


Overview of key issues


Water use in Dhaka is unsustainable; returning to sustainable use will include solving water quality problems

Economic development overall is unlikely to be much affected by water related climate change but the structure of the economy may be

Development is the main factor in future poverty reduction


Maintaining and increasing food production - Bangladesh well placed, but will be a huge challenge

Overuse of aquifers will require knowledge of sustainable levels of use and development of alternatives (without simply transferring the problem elsewhere)

Climate change is an immense challenge, with floods and salinisation likely to reduce the water and land available for agriculture. Bangladesh appears to be well placed to continually improve to meet the challenge but will continue to suffer from floods and droughts.

Major challenges in water and land

suffer from floods and droughts.

Poverty reduction will increase resilience and reduce vulnerability to floods, droughts and other water related problems. Continued emphasis on economic development is a clear national imperative. However, development also puts great pressure on land.


Most pressing issue in north west and north central is groundwater overuse. Because of great importance of region to national food security, solving the issue is of major national importance

Coastal zone developments in agriculture potentially solve other problems (reduce pressure on water and land elsewhere). But problems with water storage, floods and salinity. The region is the most vulnerable to water problems. Great challenge to overcome.

Dhaka water use is unsustainable. Water quality must be improved to solve the problem. There are technical solutions to the problems, but they are

Regional hotspots

the problem. There are technical solutions to the problems, but they are costly. Implementing them fast enough will be a huge challenge.

Surface water pollution by industrial waste and other pollutant is a huge issue. Re-siting industry, reducing pollution or treating polluted water will be costly, but without them options are restricted.


Sustainable level of groundwater use is not known in most places. Exchange of water between the surface and groundwater has not been quantified.

Urban and industrial water availability, and cost effective solutions for alternative water sources (alternatives to groundwater) are a high priority.

Research to develop irrigation management to use the limited surface water and groundwater resources in the coastal zone is a priority. Would include more effective land use classification to aid zoning for alternative uses such as shrimp farming.

Main gaps


We have brought a perspective which is in some ways debatable. For example, the choice of which are the key issues is somewhat subjective. Here, I offer some thoughts on issues for debate.

Key Issue 1: Can Bangladesh maintain rice-grain security to 2050?

Key Issue 2: What is likely to be key limitation to food security - water or land? What is the policy response?

Key Issue 3 & 4: What do we mean by sustainable? Pre-monsoon groundwater stable at some? Or has to be within suction limit at all

Issues for debate

groundwater stable at some? Or has to be within suction limit at all times? Which areas are unsustainable? What are the chief causes of falling groundwater tables - only overpumping? Or elements of declining rainfall and changed surface water groundwater exchanges? Do we know what are the levels of sustainable use? Outside the Barind, can we say how much water can be used?

Key Issue 5:Is flooding and salinity a key climate change risk? If not, what is the key risk? Increased droughts? Health? Energy use?


Key Issue 6: Is the view that preparing for climate variability is sound policy a valid interpretation for Bangladesh? Is the key approach to continue the sorts of investments made over the last 50 years? (Disaster preparedness, agricultural development, economic development, etc.)

Key Issue 7: Is the water supply of Dhaka a key concern? Just Dhaka or all big urban centres? (Khulna water situation is precarious in dry season.) Do solutions require solving water quality? (Eg, can aquifer recharge use storm water directly without great clean-up? Would that yield enough water to solve the problem?)

Issues for debate

Key Issue 8:Is the robustness of economic growth against climate change a correct interpretation for Bangladesh? Is the key internal policy imperative to ensure economic growth and food security as a defence against climate change? (External negotiations may focus on other issues.)

Key Issue 9: Is the key internal policy imperative to ensure economic growth and food security as a defence against climate change and water related disasters? What about policies for the very poor?


Supporters:

DFAT - Australian Aid

Ministry of Water Resources (past and present Honourable Ministers, Secretaries and others)

Past and present DGs / EDs of BWDB, WARPO, IWM, BIDS, CEGIS

Many people who have informed and advised us, including (but not limited to) staff from BARC, BARI, BRRI, BADC, DPHE, BMDA, SRDI.

Thankyou


Contributors:

CSIRO: Mobin-ud Din Ahmad, Riasat Ali, Onil Banerjee, Geoff Hodgson, Jeff Connor, Mac Kirby, Mohammed Mainuddin, Jeff Turner

WARPO: Saiful Alam, Md. Aminul Haque, Md. Jahid Hossain, Md. HasanShahriar

BWDB: K.A.M. Shahiduzzaman, Md. Salim Bhuiyan, Md. Amirul Hossain

IWM: Md. Jakir Hossain, Muhammad Enamul Quadir, Khan Md. Wahid Palash, Md. Salah Uddin, S.M. Sahabuddin, Md. Masbahul Islam, Gourab Kumer Saha,

Thankyou

Md. Salah Uddin, S.M. Sahabuddin, Md. Masbahul Islam, Gourab Kumer Saha, Tusha Devjani Barman, Md. Sohel Masud, Sardar M Shah-Newaz, Abu SalehKhan, M. Monowar Hossain

BIDS: K.M. Nabiul Islam, M. Asaduzzaman, M. K. Mujeri, Moogdho MimMahzab, Quazi Shahabuddin, Morshed Alam

CEGIS: Ahmadul Hassan, Motaleb Hossain Sarker, Mohammad Shahidul Islam, Mohammad Abdur Rashid, Rehab Raihan Chowdhury, Tanvir Ahmed, AnushilaMazumder, Mohammad Saidur Rahman, Md. Nasrat Jahan, Laila Sanjida, Sarazina Mumu, Abu Sayed Md. Faysal, Md. Hasibur Rahman


Thank youThank youCSIRO Land and WaterMac Kirby

t +61 2 6246 5921E [email protected] www.clw.csiro.au/

SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE FLAGSHIP

Date post:	11-Mar-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	0 times
Download:	0 times

Final report and key messages, Bangladesh Integrated Water Resources...

Documents