Final Task Force Report - October 2013

MOP-25 – Bangkok, Thailand

Overview of PresentationOutlines the outcomes of the discussions at

OEWG-33 in June and the process followed since then

Describes the main changes that have been made to the structure and layout of the report

Highlights some of the major areas where information and analysis have been strengthened

Summarises major findings

Identifies areas which may require further investigation

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Outline of discussions at OEWG-33 and subsequent process

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Decision XXIV/7 – Guidance given at OEWG-33Restructure report to put greater emphasis on looking

forward rather than backwards and also on barriers to progress

Should not seek to put environmental impacts into a hierarchy but should only seek to quantify climate impacts

As part of the restructure, seek to reduce repetition

No need to include additional sectors or quantify impacts where the baseline is uncertain (e.g. fire protection & solvents)

Seek to provide more explanation on the decision-making process

Highlight specific regional issues (e.g. high urban density) 4

Decision XXIV/7 – Further information receivedA number of references and links from the European

Community (EC)

A marked up version of the draft report from the Government of Japan

Three slides from the Government of Japan on alternatives to high GWP substances, on literature references and on the commercialisation of products by Japanese companies

Comments from other stakeholders

An e-mailed contribution from the US (see corrigendum)

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Main changes made to the structure and layout of report

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Decision XXIV/7 – Report Structure & LayoutExecutive Summaries have been extracted from Chapters

and consolidated at front of Report to allow synergies to be seen

Chapter 2 updated to emphasise the key elements of the selection process, including the influence of local factors

New Chapter 3 introduced to capture information on what could have been avoided (mostly foam analysis)

Considerable further analysis in the Refrigeration and Air Conditioning sector (e.g. penetration rate potential) and the structured development of consensus

Re-working of graphics to focus on forward opportunities for avoiding impacts 7

Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Major Findings

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RAC – Alternatives & SectorsMain alternatives

NH3, CO2 and hydrocarbons HFCs and unsaturated HFCs/HCFCs and blends with low

GWP Other HFCs and blends

Main sectors covered (both Article 5 and non-A5)

Domestic refrigeration Commercial refrigeration Large size and transport refrigeration Air conditioning Heat pumps and chillers Mobile AC

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RAC – Alternatives AssessedR-717, R-744, hydrocarbons

(efficiency compared to HCFC-22)

Two unsaturated HFCs and one unsaturated HCFC (efficiency compared to refrigerants they replace)

Six blends* with medium GWP (containing low GWP HFCs)

HFC-32 (efficiency compared to R-410A)

Six refrigerants and blends with higher GWP (including HFC-134a)

Three high GWP HFC refrigerant blends (for comparison)

* The composition of a blend is a compromise between GWP, flammability and

energy efficiency10

RAC – Refrigerant issuesCurrent usage analysed in the Revised Report Overarching issues important (training, safety and

standards, system chemistry, toxicity, flammability and pressure, disposal)

Penetration rates for low and medium GWP options now defined in three classes (D, C, L, which stand for potentially dominant (>50%), potentially competitive and low (<10%))

A full assessment is shown in Table 4.1 on page 56 of the Final Report

Constraints for certain penetration rates are a complex set of issues such as safety, efficiency, costs, materials and components, system complexity etc.

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RAC – findingsFlammability, toxicity and thermodynamic properties of

certain non fluorocarbon and fluorocarbon refrigerants can be barriers

5-15% higher costs for some hydrocarbon solutions (e.g. HC-290 & HC-1270) in indirect condensing units compared to HFC options

There are a number of alternatives for stationary AC including carbon dioxide and hydrocarbons, with no clear market leaders. However, HFC-32 starts to play a role as a lower GWP alternative for R-410A.

The loss of AC energy efficiency at high ambient temperatures is a significant issue for a number of refrigerants

Overarching issues remain important, including the ones related to servicing, training and end-of-life treatment

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RAC – opportunities for selectionLow GWP refrigerants (such as proprietary blends N-13/ XP-

10) are likely to replace R-404A, which has a very high GWP

R-744 is being used in Northern Europe for some indirect condensing units; R-744 can be applied in many supermarkets, developments are ongoing to expand the application area

HFC-32 and L-41 are both candidates in Small Self-Contained ACs with HC-290 being used in portable and split ACs.

In chillers, both HFC-1234ze(E) and HCFC-1233zd(E) have roles as replacements for HFC-134a and HCFC-123 respectively

R-744 and HC-290 make good progress in chillers, HPs, transport

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Based on the assumptions in the report, for the period 2013-2020, 524 ktonnes of high GWP HFCs (11% of the total) can be avoided in SAC, equivalent to the avoidance of 9% of the total consumption in Mt CO2-eq in that period. This is for all countries (Article 5 and non-Article 5)

The percentage in 2020 would be about 20%

For the period 2013-2020, 270 ktonnes of high GWP HFCs (11% of the total) can be avoided in Commercial Refrigeration, equivalent to the avoidance of 25% of the total consumption in Mt CO2-eq in that period. This is due to the avoidance of very high GWP refrigerants

The percentage in 2020 would be about 27% 14

What can be avoided - SAC/Commercial

Flexible and Rigid Foams Major Findings

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Foams – Alternatives & SectorsMain alternatives

Hydrocarbons, saturated HFCs and unsaturated HFCs/HCFCs*, CO2, HCOs (methyl formate, methylal)*, other

Main sectors covered (both Article 5 and non-A5) PU Appliances PU Board/Laminate PU In-situ/Block PU Spray PU Integral Skin XPS Board Phenolic

Small, medium and large enterprises* Considered as ‘emerging options’ and, in some instances, still ‘under development’

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Foams – barriers & restrictionsHydrocarbons still blowing agent of choice in most

transitions for large enterprises but investment costs limit the option for small-medium sized enterprises

Transition to unsaturated HFCs and HCFCs (HFOs) is conditional on registration processes (incremental toxicity testing) and investment plans

For XPS, CO2 has technical limitations and HFOs are likely to be only usable in blends because of cost

For some applications, the potential restriction of brominated and phosphate flame retardants adds to the challenges of selecting appropriate blowing agents

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Foams – opportunities for selectionHFOs are showing significant benefits for thermal

conductivity

Methyl Formate and Methylal are being used in niche areas (integral skin, some vending machines etc.)

Hydrocarbons are being adopted more widely than might have been anticipated, but real costs are exceeding HPMP estimates

Enterprises are often co-funding hydrocarbon solutions

The development of blends continues to be critical to both technical and economic criteria 18

Current GWP status of Blowing Agents

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• A5 Parties having more challenges than non-A5

• Partially owing to economies of scale

• Also later transition from HCFCs

• Two key areas of concern as of 2013

• PU Spray Foam• XPS Foam• Product & Process

Flammability

non-A5 A5

PU Appliance 41.34% 41.34%PU Boardstock 2.48% 0.00%PU Panel 44.68% 78.60%PU Spray 99.63% 100.00%PU In-situ/Block 36.08% 99.64%XPS Board 81.84% 99.98%Phenolic 15.98% 32.51%

Total 35.61% 48.37%

Economies of scale are critical

Climate impacts that could still be avoided

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Non-A5 A5tonnes ktCO2-eq tonnes ktCO2-eq tonnes ktCO2-eq tonnes ktCO2-eq

PU Appliance 159,132 176,652 225,420 189,564 55% 75% 87,523 97,158 169,065 142,173 PU Boardstock 17,054 19,747 - 8 50% 50% 8,527 9,874 - 4 PU Panel 148,542 172,550 77,374 54,710 50% 40% 74,271 86,275 30,950 21,884 PU Spray 103,966 105,824 75,895 53,582 25% 25% 25,992 26,456 18,974 13,395 PU In-situ/Block 26,881 25,910 71,839 50,711 25% 25% 6,720 6,478 17,960 12,678 XPS Board 202,705 192,878 457,667 891,499 10% 25% 20,271 19,288 114,417 222,875 Phenolic 5,196 4,978 408 282 50% 50% 2,598 2,489 204 141

Total 663,476 698,539 908,603 1,240,356 225,901 248,017 351,569 413,150 34.05% 35.51% 38.69% 33.31%

Non-Article 5 Article 5Cumulative High-GWP Consumption to 2020 Est. % Avoidance Estimated Avoided Consumption to 2020

Non-Article 5 Article 5

Business as Usual Opportunity Outcome

One third saving in cumulative consumption but deferred emission savings

Fire Protection & Solvents Major Findings

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Alternatives to ODS in Fire Protection There are alternatives commercially available for

almost all previous uses of ODS in new systems/extinguishers.

The need for chemical agents remains because inert gases, water mist and other traditional agents are not suitable for many fire protection applications. In the fixed flooding market, HFCs have filled the chemical

agent role and, since about 2005, a fluoro-ketone (FK) is increasingly more accepted.

In the smaller local application and portable extinguisher market, a special blend of HCFC-123 predominates, with substantially lesser amounts of HFCs.

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Alternatives under developmentA Fluoro-ketone blend, and another undisclosed chemical, are currently under test.2-Bromo-3,3,3-trifluoropropene has fire protection characteristics that are close to those of halon 1211 and has low environmental impact. If it proves to be commercially successful for application in portable extinguishers, it would be the replacement of choice for halon 1211 in the civil aviation industry.The aviation sector and certain military and cold climate applications remain a challenge in the transition from halon/HCFC based extinguishing agents. Nevertheless, the industry is still evaluating alternatives that have low environmental impacts, and the HTOC is assessing regional biases in fire protection agent and systems, and variations in price structure across the spectrum of available choices. This evaluation may provide additional clarity on future market penetration scenarios for low environmental impact agents.

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Solvent alternatives to ODSs

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Many alternatives have been developed to replace ODS solvents including:

(semi-)aqueous cleaning, but there are limits to its use because some products/processes simply can’t tolerate water.

Hydrocarbons and alcohols, but are extremely flammable.

Chlorinated solvents and n-PB, but exposures should be strictly controlled due to their toxicity.

HFC and HFEs, but blending may be necessary due to their solvency, and HFCs are greenhouse gases with varying GWPs. The relatively high cost of HFEs limits their use.

HFOs are also becoming available

Areas Potentially Requiring Further Investigation

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Decision XXIV/7 – Areas for further research For RAC and foams, there are high levels of technical

innovation and technology adoption is changing rapidly

The emergence and commercialisation of new low-GWP options makes regular assessment of available alternatives desirable

The relevant period for analysis could be extended beyond 2020 once alternative selection decisions are clearer

Further guidance may be possible at a later date on the selection of alternatives for area of high urban population density and high ambient temperatures 26