FINAL Week 7 Public Opinion

7/27/2019 FINAL Week 7 Public Opinion

1/44

LP3018

Political Communication:Public Opinion


2/44

Note on the portfolios and presentations

Focus on your strategy, not the issue!

You only have 15 minutes each after 15 your group will be cut off

Presentation should either be an example from your campaign or set

out your campaign Portfolio needs to reinforce your choices

Show evidence of engaging with theoretical issues raised in seminars

How has your strategy been devised? What conceptual frames have

informed your decision-making?

Branding / corporate identity for your campaign/group

HAND IN THE PORTFOLIOS DURING CLASS week 9


3/44

Themes and Issues

Understanding what the term public opinion really means

Understanding its place in democracy

What is it used for?

How public opinion is formulated Is it socially constructed?

Is it constructed deliberatively?

Problems in assessing and measuring public opinion

Breaking it down: what are the main components of public opinion?


4/44

Understanding public opinion

How is public opinion different from private opinion?

QUES: Private opinion becomes public opinion

A. when that opinion, regardless of its subject matter, is publicly expressed.B. when it concerns public issues and is publicly expressed.C. when an individual is polled by a major polling organization.D. when it is not divisive.

Private opinion? Not a political concept? Not articulated in a public space Not part of the public sphere


5/44


6/44

The role of the mass media in shaping publicopinion The world we have to deal with politically is out of reach, out of sight,

out of mind (Lippmann,1922)

For nearly all of the concerns on the public agenda, citizens deal with

a second-hand reality, a reality that is structured by journalists

reports about these events and situations Media effects:

Framing, priming, agenda setting, persuasion

All about establishing issue salience amongst the public

Placing an issue on the public agenda

Making that issue the focus of public attention and possiblyaction

This is the initial stage in the formation of public opinion


7/44

Our pictures of the world

Public opinion responds not to the real-world environment, but to the

pseudo-environment constructed by the news media

E.g. KONY 2012


8/44

Public Opinion

Public opinion

Opinions of those not in government, yet claiming some voice in

public affairs (Lazarsfeld)

The comprehensive preferences of the majority of individuals onan issue (Entman and Herbst)

Habermas: public opinion is formed outside government, but also

outside the home


9/44

Why is it so crucial?

Comes back to our understanding of democratic theory

The responsiveness of government policy to citizens

preferences is a central concern in normative democratic

theory (Dahl) Basic question: Do politicians simply do what the public

wants?

The principle of delegation vs majority view/ public opinion


10/44

Why is it so crucial?

Public opinion remains a key marker of democracy

Respect for public opinion is a safeguard against a dictator

mobilising against democratically elected government

Public opinion at times must be mobilised

Public opinion can inform political action


11/44

How public opinion is formed


12/44


Input stimuli

- The public sphere

Individual opinion

Aggregated = publicopinion

ACTIVITYWhat kind of factors influence the process of public opinionformation?


13/44


What is the basis of public opinion?

Is it (only) socially constructed?

Or is it refracted through several frames?

A hugely complex process

Starting points: Values

Beliefs

Norms

Attitudes

Opinions Social context


14/44

The formation of public opinion

Some key points to note

Individuals also impose their own preferences in selecting

information sources

Thesupplyof political information varies across environments

This has important consequences for the information citizensultimately obtain

The public sphere does not work perfectly


15/44

Public opinion and the public sphere

For Habermas, public opinion is formed in this public sphere

This has three key conditions

Universality of access

Rational debate

Disregard for rank or status His view was that the public sphere in Western democracies is far

from optimal

Instead highly susceptible to elite manipulation

Mediatization and media effects can distort the proper functioning of

the public sphere

HOW??


16/44

Analysing public opinion

Not a source of political analysis until around mid-1900s Full extension of the franchise

Rise of the middle class

The spread of democratic institutions The expansion of literacy

Growth of mass media communication


17/44

Assessing public opinion

ACTIVITY

Working in teams

You are going to assess public opinion about current British politics

You want to work out who would be most likely to win a generalelection, if an election were to be held next week

How would you go about it?

What would be the 5 main questions you would ask?


18/44

How does it work?

Polling or canvassing public opinion on its own does not tell us

anything directly

We need to know more than just how many people are for or

against something

We need to know the social and demographic characteristics ofthe respondents

Thus, a good public opinion poll ends up not with one distribution

of attitudes but with many of them for different sectors of the

population


19/44

Problems in assessing public opinion What are these?

Measurement problems


20/44


21/44


22/44

Problems in assessing public opinion What are these?

Measurement problems

Contradictions in beliefs Views based on misconceptions

If these were altered (education), views could change

Aggregation dilemmas i.e. the indeterminacy of majority opinion as soon as we consider trade-

offs among more than two issues at the same time

Non-attitudes The absence of real opinions about many issues


23/44

problems... (contd)

How do you formulate the questions properly?

So as to avoid distortion, simplification and exaggeration of

response The timing of polls is crucial

Can impact on responses Cause and effect?

Polls are not just a measure of political attitudes and intent

Increasing evidence suggests poll data influences how people vote in

elections

Opinion polls have become part of the political environment they aredesigned to monitor

In itself an agenda setter!!


24/44

Constructing public opinion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvodhsMc2QM&list=PLDAC3B90

D67125C6E
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvodhsMc2QM&list=PLDAC3B90D67125C6Ehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvodhsMc2QM&list=PLDAC3B90D67125C6Ehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvodhsMc2QM&list=PLDAC3B90D67125C6Ehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvodhsMc2QM&list=PLDAC3B90D67125C6E


25/44

The four referents of public opinion

Clarity issues are the media, politicians all talking about the same thing? A four-fold categorisation (Entman and Herbst)

1) MASS OPINION The simple, majority view The aggregation of individual preferences

All opinion poll results, referenda, elections regardless of how informed,or firmly held those beliefs are

The will of all (Rousseau) Most useful in instances where the details are within the

comprehension of most E.g. capital punishment


26/44

The four referents of public opinion

Mass opinion is problematic

Because it is not informed opinion Most citizens surveyed are not ideal type citizens

Those who engage in regular policy debate in the public sphere

May be unlikely to vote

Mass opinion is easily swayed

The media have a huge shaping role in the way in which they present

events


27/44

Shell (2010)

In the most general sense, are you interested in politics?Very interested and interested in percent (15-24 Year-Olds)

Declining Interest in Politics


28/44

source: Pew Research Center

'Enjoying the news


29/44

The 3-classes information society

Communicative PrecariatAlmost no political media use, distant to politics, no

participation, low knowledge, high degree of cynicism topolitics and political actors

The Pseudo Informed

Superficial interest in politics, basicknowledge (more of people than issues),typical audience of talkshows, Participationreduced to voting, moderate cynicism to

politics and political actors

Elite

High political media use and participation


30/44

Second referent:

Activated public opinion

The opinions of engaged, informed and mobilised citizens Work to shape policy issues and opinion not just during

election campaigns but between them as well Party loyalists, local community activists, interest group

members


31/44

Activated public opinion

Is this the public opinion that matters? (Blumer, 1948)

People with power and resources, educated citizens, closely

engaged in politics

The media do not have as much impact on the politically engaged

Have strong, pre-existing opinion Usually tied to a coherent ideological position


32/44

Third referent:

Latent public opinion

Fundamental public preferences that underlie superficial opinion

Latent opinion is where public opinion will end up after an informed policy

debate

What people really feel, beyond media depiction etc Successful political leaders tend to be able to tap into latent opinion

From engagement with multiple venues of opinion formation: mass

opinion polls, activated opinion, interaction with colleagues, and

experience of political life


33/44

Fourth referent:

Perceived majorit ies The perceptions held by opinion leaders on where public

preferences lie on an issue

Journalists, politicians and activist members of the public

Tend to overlook the more complex reality of opinion The public wants.... Growing numbers believe...

Politicians and journalists often ignore polling data

Can be contradictory

Can be inconvenient Selective choices can be convenient

They may have other agendas


34/44

Why this framework is useful Can help unpack the reality of what is meant by public opinion

Public opinion is a constantly moving target

How we capture it needs to be a process that is sophisticated enough

to understand this complex and dynamic process

To focus on simply one of these referents means ignoring other potentially more useful insights from the alternative referents


35/44

To conclude:

Public opinion is by no means a straightforward concept

To use the term accurately, you need to be fully aware of the aspects

you are considering

And be aware of the limitations of this concept

Public opinion is dynamic, and subject to external pressures The methodology used for sampling and capturing is therefore crucial


36/44

Analysis

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11656690

Questions:

Can you buy public opinion? And if so, how much do you have to spend?

Should there be limits on partys campaign spending?

If so, how should these be determined?

What does this case study tell us about the public sphere?
http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2010/california/governorhttp://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2010/california/governorhttp://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2010/california/governor


37/44

Seminar - analysis

The Meg Whitman campaign

Running to replace Schwarzenegger as Governor of California in

2010


38/44

Biography and background

Hugely successful businesswoman

Graduate of Harvard Business School

Worked as senior exec for Walt Disney Co. In 1980s, then

DreamWorks

1998-2008 President and CEO of eBay Oversaw its development

1998: 30 employees and $4 million annual revenue

2008: 15 000 employees and $8 billion annual revenue


39/44

The campaign

Having secured the Republican nomination, went head to head with

Jerry Brown (Democrat)

She spent:

$144 million of her own money

$178.5 million from donors He spent:

$31 million


40/44


41/44


42/44

Campaign ads

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VekQ1F9J-C8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TufO2AnYO50&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/user/Meg2010Campaign#p/u/3/zlImfQuY68U

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4lVaWbNdjg&feature=c4-

overview-vl&list=PLD2B1ABEC401E17BD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VekQ1F9J-C8http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TufO2AnYO50&NR=1http://www.youtube.com/user/Meg2010Campaign#p/u/3/zlImfQuY68Uhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4lVaWbNdjg&feature=c4-overview-vl&list=PLD2B1ABEC401E17BDhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4lVaWbNdjg&feature=c4-overview-vl&list=PLD2B1ABEC401E17BDhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4lVaWbNdjg&feature=c4-overview-vl&list=PLD2B1ABEC401E17BDhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4lVaWbNdjg&feature=c4-overview-vl&list=PLD2B1ABEC401E17BDhttp://www.youtube.com/user/Meg2010Campaign#p/u/3/zlImfQuY68Uhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TufO2AnYO50&NR=1http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VekQ1F9J-C8


43/44

The outcome...

Brown: 53%

Whitman: 42%

http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2010/california/governor

(So she effectively spent $50 for every vote she got)
http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2010/california/governorhttp://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2010/california/governor


44/44

Questions

Can you buy public opinion?

And if so, how much do you have to spend?

Should there be limits on partys campaign spending?

If so, how should these be determined?

What does this case study (Whitman-Brown) tell us about the public

sphere?

Date post:	13-Apr-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	chahat-sosa-mayor
View:	216 times
Download:	0 times

FINAL Week 7 Public Opinion

Documents