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Final workplan

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1. Project objective European Unconventional oil and gas assessment (EUOGA) is an inventory of existing published knowledge on shale oil and gas resources in Europe. The project will compile data from European countries which are members of EuroGeoSurveys (EGS) and the European union, including Switzerland and Ukraine. The project will define a common resource assessment methodology and make results available in a Geographical Information System (GIS) database and on a website. 2. Project organisation and workflow structure The work will be carried out in an organisation structure as outlined in Figure 1. GEUS will have the overall project management and will lead the GIS database group. TNO will coordinate and develop a common European assessment methodology for unconventional hydrocarbons. The participating European National Geological Surveys (NGS) will provide national published shale oil and gas relevant data. The geology of Europe is complex and in order to make the best possible geological interpretation, the European shale hydrocarbon assessment will be carried out basin by basin in operationally defined basin groups. An overview of the involved parties is presented in Figure 1.

Figure 1. EUOGA organisation structure. Basin groups consisting of National Geological Surveys will be organized as outlined in Figure 2. This approach will provide the basis for a uniform and consistent European geological knowledge framework and ensure transnational correlations. Further facilitating integration of future exploration data gathered within various basins and countries and thus improves the general understanding of the greater European exploration and production potential. Guidelines and data specifications for the GIS will be provided to the participating NGS’ for the delivery of data to the GIS database and the assessment tasks (Table 1). Basin Group 2

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Figure 2. Workflow structure of the EUOGA project. Table 1. Overview of the project structure and tasks within the project organisation. Project manager will organise meetings, communication and finance (GEUS) Database group develops the GIS-database (GEUS)

* Develops questionnaire survey (GIS data part) * Guidelines for GIS data (what data do we need and in what in format) * Map-compilation * Web-based interactive database and map applications

Assessment Group carries out there source calculations (TNO) * Develops questionnaire survey (assessment part) * Common EU methodology technical report * Resource assessment report

All participating national geological surveys (NGS) will provide the needed data to database and assessments calculations within the given deadlines in the final work plan Basin Groups focus on solving cross border issues Project manager will issue the final work plan

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3. Work description The project is divided into 8 tasks:

Task 1: Project management Task 2: Common EU methodology Task 3: Introductory overview of the current status and development of shale gas and oil in Europe Task 4: Geological resource analysis of shale gas and oil in Europe Task 5: Compilation of geological maps and web-portal Task 6: Overview of relevant shale layer characteristics Task 7: Resource estimation Task 8: Review of results, knowledge gaps and recommendations for future work

A detailed overview of tasks, milestones and deliverables is provided in the progress plan, which is included as Appendix 1. 3.1 Project management – Task 1 Coordinated by GEUS Objectives Task 1 will be the overall coordination and management of the project, project planning and execution. The management will be responsible for meeting project goals and delivering all agreed deliverables as described in this work plan. Meetings A Kick-off meeting will be arranged in month 4 with all sub-contractors. The meeting will provide essential information needed for the sub-contractors to deliver data as required in the guideline and data specification documents for GIS, geology and assessment. Communication As the main coordinator of the project GEUS will be in charge of the communication with JRC and all sub-contractors as well as coordination of communication and interdependencies between tasks. To ensure the progress, GEUS will send out quarterly progress reports to JRC and the involved NGS. External communication The EuroGeoSurvey (EGS) secretariat will have the role as ambassador within EUOGA and raise awareness of the project, facilitate effective communication and outreach of project results and progress externally. EGS will ensure that all relevant and interested stakeholders are involved and/or reached, and properly, correctly and regularly informed and kept updated.

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Quality and risk management The quality of the maps and the assessment of the hydrocarbon resources heavily depend on the available data and the data quality for each basin assessed in this study. GEUS will ensure that these issues will be targeted at the workshops and in the communication with the NGS. Quarterly progress reports will ensure that any delays can be targeted and solved early in the process. Table 2. Activities defined for work in Task 1. Item Description Timing Dependencies 1.1 Deliverable T1: Final work plan. M1 1.2 Kick-off meeting with sub-contractors. M4 1.3 Contracts with sub-contractors. M1-M3 1.4 Project progress report. M4, M8, M12, M16 1.5 External communication. M4-M19 3.2 Common EU methodology - Task 2 Coordinated by TNO Objectives Over the last decade, various national assessments of shale gas and shale oil resources for EU-countries have been published. Due to different and/or undocumented methodologies, fundamental assumptions and quality and quantity of underlying geological information, the results of these national assessments are not always easily comparable and interpretable. This task will focus on the development and definition of a uniform methodology for estimating (in-place) shale gas and shale oil resources at the pan-European level. The methodology will be compared with existing published assessments in order to analyse differences and similarities with the various other methods used, to better understand the variations in published estimations across Europe and to improve the overall comparability of the pan-European shale gas/oil assessments with existing studies. The methodology will be established to determine estimates of GIIP (Gas Initially In Place) and OIIP (Oil Initially In Place) including associated uncertainty bandwidths originating from the various geological input parameters available. In order to discuss the TRR (Technical Recoverable Resources) within a typical shale gas development area, this Task will also propose an example of a simple national shale gas development based on available literature. Pre-conditions

- The proposed methodology will apply to regional scale pan-EU assessments of shale gas and shale oil. It does not apply to local, project scale assessments.

- The proposed methodology is tuned to be commonly applicable for all pan-European

geological basins and associated shale gas/oil plays. Existing national assessments may have applied more comprehensive methodologies that specifically focus on the more local geological aspects and available data. Therefore the proposed methodology in this study may differ from methods used for national assessments and even be less comprehensive.

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Table 3. Activities defined for work in Task 2. Item Description Timing Dependencies 2.1 Analysis and documentation of published

methodologies used for national shale gas and shale oil assessments across Europe including the identification of similarities and differences, and input parameters used.

M1 – M3 T3

2.2 Elaborate and document a preliminary common methodology for pan-EU assessment, including evaluation of differences with existing national assessments.

M1 – M3

2.3 Describe a typical (example) notional development for shale gas development including a definition of development area, well lay-out and assumed recovery factors based on literature sources.

M1 – M3

2.4 EU workshop: Discuss results from T2.1 – T2.3 and agree on proposed common methodology and example notional development for TRR discussion.

M4 T2.1 – T2.3

2.5 Deliverable T2a: Mid Term Technical Report on evaluation of existing assessment methodologies and the proposed common methodology for pan-EU assessment.

M4 T2.1 – T2.4

2.6 Evaluate (and adjust where needed) the proposed methodology based on the quality and quantity of geological information gathered from the geological surveys and feed-back from EU workshop.

M10 T2.4, T5, T6

2.7 Deliverable T2b: Final Technical Report describing final methodology for pan-EU assessment including an evaluation of possible deviations from methodologies applied in earlier national assessments.

M11 T2.1 – T2.6

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3.3 Introductory overview of the current status and development of shale gas and oil in Europe - Task 3 Coordinated by GEUS Objectives Various national assessments of shale gas and shale oil resources for EU-countries have been published over the last decade. Differences in methodology, fundamental assumptions and quality and quantity of underlying geological information of these national assessments need to be compared. Thus a comprehensive introductory overview of the current status and development of shale gas and shale oil in Europe, country-per-country, basin-per-basin, is important for the pan-European assessment. The insight and up-to-date knowledge of the European basins will be achieved by having the NGS’ to gather data and information to the project whereupon the report will be made. Pre-conditions

- The results are based on completed questionnaires from the National Geological Surveys delivered on time and complying with quality criteria and where relevant, complemented with available literature sources.

- Data and information from different sources may conflict. We will pursue coherency as much as possible, but not all conflicts may be solved. These conflicts will be mentioned as a focus for future work and research.

Table 4. Activities defined for work in Task 3. Item Description Timing Dependencies 3.1 Sending data questionary to European NGS. M1 – M3 3.2 Compilation and validation. M3 – M8 3.3 Delivery T3a and T3b: Overview of the current

status and development of shale gas and shale oil in Europe.

M4 (T3a draft) M9 (T3b final)

T3.1 – T3.2

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3.4 Geological resource analysis of shale gas and oil in Europe - Task 4 Coordinated by TNO Objectives This Task focuses on a general and compact qualitative geological description of the shale gas/oil plays across Europe. The descriptions will be compiled from information provided by the National Geological Surveys (i.e. questionnaires received from Task 3). The following aspects will among others be described for each shale play and shale basin:

- Identification, type of play and resource, name, geological basin - Geographical extent, typical depth and thickness - Stratigraphy and correlation across country borders - Overall regional geological evolution and structural setting - Generic description of most important and relevant risk components that determine the

prospectivity of the play - Reference to typical shale gas/oil related parameters (TOC, maturity, etc.) collected in Task

5 and 6

Pre-conditions - The results are based on completed templates and questionnaires from the National

Geological Surveys delivered on time and complying to quality criteria and where relevant, complemented with available literature sources.

- Data and information from different sources may conflict. We will pursue coherency as much as possible, but not all conflicts may be solved. These conflicts will be mentioned as a focus for future work and research (T8).

Table 5. Activities defined for work in Task 4. Item Description Timing Dependencies 4.1 Setup and distribute a template for uniformly

describing EU shale plays to the National Geological Surveys.

M1 – M3 T3 (draft)

4.2 Elaborate and compile general and systematic descriptions of the shale plays from the NGS responses. Includes a review by the National Geological Surveys.

M6 – M8 T4.1

4.3 Deliverable T4a: Contribution to Mid Term report regarding progress and results of T4.1 – T4.2

M9 T4.1 – T4.2

4.4 Deliverable T4b: Contribution to Final Technical Report consisting of the finalized shale gas/oil play descriptions, incorporating results from T5, T6 and T7

M18 T4.1 – T4.2, T5, T6, T7

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3.5 Compilation of geological maps and web-portal - Task 5 Coordinated by GEUS Maps and information from the individual basins already exist in different formats and are hosted by various National Geological Surveys. The main objective of task 5 is to gather these inputs and compile them into uniform pan European maps. This will require that strict guidelines and workflows are developed for the exchange of data. This includes standards for the input of GIS products that will be provided from the data owners such as (but not limited to) geographical reference system, GIS layer structure, GIS layer names, attributes, units, common nomenclature (by use of controlled code lists). Also procedures for review and quality control of the final products will be established in this task. Task 5 will compile geological maps as specified in the Technical Annex:

a. the extent of shale gas basins; b. the depth and thickness of shale gas and shale oil intervals; c. an overview of relevant structural elements and faults; d. the maturity and total organic content (TOC) of shale gas / oil plays; and e. the origin of relevant source data used in the assessment.

These maps will be generated at a 1:500.000 scale, representing information that is coherent on a basin level. It should be noted however that the information delivered by the National Geological Surveys may be mapped for application on a larger scale. Therefore the scale of representation may not comply with the resolution of the information itself. In these cases the conflict of scale will be mentioned as part of the meta-data. A common methodology, nomenclature and styling will be applied in order to provide harmonised end products that will enable users to make easy comparisons across basins as well as obtaining pan-European overviews. Standards and guidelines of INSPIRE and other European projects like EuroGeoSource will be followed when relevant. The compiled maps will be stored in a central geodatabase and made publically available by the end of the project through an interactive GIS application. This application will form part of a web-based portal, which is also developed in Task 5.8. The portal will – besides the maps – give access to the other project results such as the shale layer characteristics derived by Task 6 and resource estimates produced in Task 7. Pre-conditions

- The results are dependent on timely and adequate data delivery by the National Geological Surveys.

- Data and information from different sources may conflict. We will pursue coherency as much as possible, but not all conflicts may be solved. These conflicts will be mentioned as a focus for future work and research.

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Table 6. Activities defined for work in Task 5. Item Description Timing Dependencies 5.1 Definition of exchange formats and develop GIS

Guidelines. M1

5.2 Sending data request to the national geological surveys.

M2-M5 T5.1

5.3 Check and approve incoming data contributions. M3 – M8 T5.2 & 5.4 5.4 Compilation of maps and development of

geodatabase. M6 – M17 T5.3

5.5 Development of web-portal. M12-M19 T5.4 5.6 Deliverable T5a: a set of maps for each basin. M17 T5.3 & 5.4 5.7 Deliverable T5b: Geodatabase. M17 T5.3 & 5.4 5.8 Deliverable T5c: Web-based interactive database

and map application. M19 T5.5

The general architecture of the database/portal system and the main data flows are illustrated in Figure 3. Data for the portal will be organised in a combined GIS- and relational database hosted by GEUS (Task 5.5). The database structure will be established to concur with the INSPIRE data models when possible and to follow the principles outlined by the EuroGeoSource project. The maps and data provided through the portal will be generated within the project, i.e. none on the underlying national data or data from other sources will be included unless the data are freely and openly available for integration. A part of Task 5.4 will hence be to assess the conditions of use for the various data sources involved. An OGC service layer will be set up on top of the central database to serve the maps as web map services (WMS). These services will be the source of data for the web portal, but can also be integrated in other applications such as the OneGeologyEurope portal. The data and services will be made discoverable through the INSPIRE geoportal. In this context INSPIRE-compliant metadata are provisioned for the relevant datasets. It is our ambition to establish a database framework that will allow future maintenance and updates on the results delivered. To this end we will make some recommendations in Task 5.8. This framework could for example be realized by future cooperation with EGS on integration of the system with the EGDI – an initiative aiming at establishing a long-term sustainable European Geological Data Infrastructure (EGDI) as part of the general EGS strategy1. We therefore also aim for compatibility with the EGDI and this is partly ensured by the fact that GEUS is playing an active role in the preparations for this infrastructure.

1 EuroGeoSurveys Strategy: http://www.eurogeosurveys.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EGS-Strategy-Document-2014-A4.pdf

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Figure 3. System architecture and data flows. 1) Data and GIS products are provided by the participating NGS and from previously compiled project databases like EuroGeoSource, SPBA, EuCoRes etc. 2) A group of GIS and database persons at GEUS will compile and convert the contributions into harmonised maps and structured data and store these in the central project database (3). 4) A number of WMS services are implemented on top of the central database in order to serve data to the project web portal (5) as well as to potentially other applications such as OneGeologyEurope (6). 7) INSPIRE-compliant metadata are produced for all relevant datasets and provisioned for the INSPIRE metadata catalogue, where they will be discoverable through the INSPIRE geoportal (8). The components within the yellow box (9) will be developed to comply with the EGDI.

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3.6 Overview of relevant shale layer characteristics - Task 6 Coordinated by GEUS Objectives An overview of relevant shale layer characteristics such as frequency distribution of the TOC, porosity distributions, mineralogy and geochemical proxies for organic matter type and maturity will be made for each of the shale layers meeting the screening criterial defined in Table 7 and 8. Although selected shale plays will be include in the database and maps, not all selected plays and intervals will be included in the quantitative resource estimations. These estimations will only be carried out for shale plays and intervals complying with the following criteria:

- The interval is considered to represent a realistic prospect based on the expectation that technical recovery may be feasible with existing technology and development.

- There is enough data to support a well-founded, science based determination of the most relevant parameters and characteristics needed for volume estimations.

- The shale play/interval has regional and pan-European relevance. No volumes will be determined on a local project scale.

Considering the above we note that the assessment of biogenic plays is quite different from thermogenic plays and that we expect that although plays of this type can be identified and mapped by the NGS’, not all plays can be expected to be included in the pan-European shale HC assessment. The Technical Annex mentions surface use as part of the selection criteria to be considered. Inclusion of land use criteria as part of the play mapping criteria, involves an evaluation of current land use and thus on the political situations and would lead to exclusion of areas where resections have been imposed on shale gas development. We are thus strongly inclined only to use strictly defined geological and engineering criteria in our selection process.

Table 7. Proposed selection criteria for thermogenic oil and gas shale plays to be mapped. Geological Properties: Value/comment TOC content and type > 2%, marine type Thermal maturity >0.7% Ro, oil mature Thickness >20 m Present day depth >1.5 km; < 7 km Mineralogy Brittle preferentially Pressure regime Normal to overpressure Structural complexity Low to moderate Geographical Properties: Areal distribution Onshore Surface use Not applicable at this stage Geomorphology of surface Slope stability

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Table 8. Proposed selection criteria for biogenic shale plays to be mapped. Geological Properties: Value/comment TOC content and type > 2%, marine type Thermal maturity <1.2% Ro, gas mature Thickness >20 m Present day depth <1 km Mineralogy Brittle preferentially Pressure regime Normal to overpressure Structural complexity Moderate to high Geographical Properties: Areal distribution Onshore Surface use Not applicable at this stage Geomorphology of surface Slope stability

Pre-conditions

- The results are based on completed templates and questionnaires from the National Geological Surveys delivered on time and complying to quality criteria and where relevant, complemented with available literature sources.

- Data and information from different sources may conflict. We will pursue coherency as much as possible, but not all conflicts may be solved. These conflicts will be mentioned as a focus for future work and research.

Table 9. Deliverables defined for work in Task 6. Item Description Timing Dependencies 6.1 Setup and distribute a template for uniformly

describing EU shale plays to National Geological Surveys.

M1 – M3 T3 (draft)

6.2 Elaborate and compile general and systematic descriptions of the shale layer characteristics from the NGS responses. Includes a review by the National Geological Surveys.

M6 – M8 T6.1, T4.2

6.3 Deliverable T6a: Contribution to Mid Term report regarding progress and results of T6.1 – T6.2.

M9 T6.1– T6.2

6.4 Deliverable T6b: Contribution to Final Technical Report consisting of the finalized shale gas/oil play descriptions, incorporating results from tasks.

M18 T6.1 – T6.2

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3.7 Resource estimation - Task 7 Coordinated by TNO Objectives This Task focuses on the actual estimation of shale gas and shale oil resources in Europe using the common methodology proposed in Task 2 (Deliverable T2a/T2b) and taking into account the results from Task 5 and 6 (underlying geological data and assumed parameter values) as input. The selection of shale gas/oil plays will be determined from the play descriptions in Task 4. The estimates are calculated per basin. The outcomes are translated to country estimates. The results will be evaluated including a discussion of quality and availability of data and assumed shale parameters, a comparison with the results from existing national assessments and a discussion on potential technical recovery based on the notional development description presented in Task 2. Pre-conditions

- The officially reported and published national studies are considered to be the formal reference for assessed shale gas resources. If available, these resource estimates will be reported next to the results of the proposed pan-EU assessment.

- The resource estimations (Task 7) will only be carried out for shale gas/oil plays and

intervals for which there is scientific evidence that they may become feasible for technical recovery (to be defined in Task 4). Shale plays that are only considered hypothetical and that are not supported by firm science-based data will not be assessed quantitatively.

- Resource estimations (Task 7) will only be carried out when enough data is available to

support these calculations. The data should comply with the minimum format and quality standards. Therefore the quality of the final results will depend on what is delivered by the National Geological Surveys.

- Data used as input for the resource estimations should be readily and publicly available.

Restricted and confidential data will not be part of the resource estimations. This proposal does incorporate new interpretations of raw measurements or additional mapping and modelling work on geological intervals and volume parameters. Observed information gaps, deficiencies and scope for future updates and improvements will be reported under Task 8.

- Due to restricted access and confidentiality, the input for this pan-European assessment

may be different from data sets used in national studies of shale gas and shale oil assessments. Therefore the resulting resource estimations in this study may be different from national studies and even be less accurate.

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Table 10. Deliverables defined for work Task 7. Item Description Timing Dependencies 7.1 Preparation and testing of all input data (T5/6) and

routines for stochastic GIIP/OIIP calculations (T2). Documentation of eventual data gaps and deficiencies.

M6 – M10 T2, T4, T5, T6

7.2 Deliverable T7a: Contribution to First draft Technical report consisting of an interim documentation of progress and results from T7.1.

M11 T7.1

7.3 Run preliminary GIIP/OIIP volume calculations per basin. Translate all values to country-specific values (break down of basin estimates). Document outcomes for review by the Basin Teams.

M10 – M13 T7.1

7.4 EU Workshop: discussion of draft estimation results, proposal of alternative settings and improvements.

M14

7.5 Evaluate proposed adjustments and run final GIIP/OIIP volume calculations per basin. Translate all values to country-specific values (break down of basin estimates). Document outcomes for final reporting.

M15 – M16 T7.3, T7.4

7.6 Evaluation of results from T7.4 and T7.5 including discussions on:

- Data quality/quantity/gaps - Quality and uncertainties of input parameters - Comparison with results from existing and

published national assessments - Evaluation of results related to assumed

technical recovery using a typical (example) notional development area as defined in T2.

M16 – M17 T7.5

7.7 Deliverable T7b: Contribution to Final Technical Report consisting of a documentation of final volume estimates (T7.5) and evaluation/discussion of the results (T7.6).

M18 T7.5, T7.6

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3.8 Review of results, knowledge gaps and recommendations for future work- Task 8 Coordinated by GEUS Objectives The project will provide a review of:

- The results, including geological and scientific analyses of derived volumes and associated uncertainties, interdependencies, differences with estimations reported in previous studies, and observed trends.

- Identified knowledge gaps and recommendations for future work that may refine, enhance or complete the resource assessments carried out, where feasible and relevant, taking into account new data and research from shale gas and shale oil exploration and production.

Table 11. Activities defined for Task 8. Item Description Timing Dependencies 8.1 Review of project results. M4 – M19 Tasks 4 – 7 8.2 Identification of knowledge gaps. M4 – M19 Tasks 4 – 7 8.3 Deliverable T8: Final report. Review of results and

recommendations. M19

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Appendix 1. Project progress plan

Task Deliverable Activities Coordinating M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12 M13 M14 M15 M16 M17 M18 M19Contract Data in Data compilation Assessment Review Reporting

1 Coordination and management GEUS1.1 T1 Final work plan T11.2 Kick-off with meeting with sub-contractors1.3 Contract to sub-contractors1.4 Project progress reports1.5 External communication EGS2 Common EU methodology TNO2.1 Analysis of published methodologies used for national shale gas and shale oil assessments2.2 Preliminary common methodology for a pan-EU assessment2.3 Describe a typical (example) notional development for shale gas development2.4 EU workshop: Discuss results from T2.1 – T2.3 and agree on proposed common methodology 2.5 T2a Evaluation of existing assessment methodologies and the proposed common pan-EU methodology T2a2.6 Adjusted proposed methodology for a pan-EU assessment2.7 T2b Final methodology for pan-EU assessment T2b3 Introductory overview of the current status and development of shale gas and oil in Europe GEUS3.1 Sending data questionary to European NGS3.2 Compilation and validation of questionnaries3.3 T3a Overview of the current status and development of shale gas and shale oil in Europe T3a3.3 T3b Overview of the current status and development of shale gas and shale oil in Europe T3b4 Geological resource analysis of shale gas and oil in Europe TNO4.1 Template for uniformly describing EU shale plays to NGS4.2 Compiled general and systematic descriptions of the shale plays from the NGS responses4.3 T4a Mid Term report regarding progress and results of T4.1 – T4.2 T4a4.4 T4b Final report consisting of the finalized shale gas/oil play descriptions, incl. results from T5, T6 and T7 T4b5 Compilation of geological maps and web-portal GEUS5.1 Definition of exchange formats and develop GIS Guidelines5.2 Sending data request to the national geological surveys5.3 Check and approve incoming data contributions5.4 Compilation of maps and development of geodatabase5.5 Develop web-portal5.6 T5a Create set of maps for each basin T5a5.7 T5b Geodatabase T5b5.8 T5c Web-based interactive database and map application T5c6 Overview of relevant shale layer characteristics GEUS6.1 Template for uniformly describing EU shale charateristics to NGS6.2 Compilation of general shale layer characteristics descriptions6.3 T6a Mid Term report contribution on progress and results of 6.1 – 6.2 T6a6.4 T6b Final report contribution on shale gas/oil play descriptions T6b7 Resource estimation TNO7.1 Preparation and testing of all input data (T5/6) and routines for stochastic GIIP/OIIP calculations (T2)7.2 T7a Mid Term report consisting of a interim documentation of progress and results from T7.1 T7a7.3 Run preliminary GIIP/OIIP volume calculations per basin7.4 EU Workshop: discussion of draft estimation results, proposal of alternative settings and improvements7.5 Evaluate proposed adjustments and run final GIIP/OIIP volume calculations per basin7.6 Evaluation of results from 7.4 and 7.57.7 T7b Final report incl. documentation of final volume estimates (T7.5) and evaluation of the results (T7.6) T7b8 Review of results, knowledge gaps and recommendations for future work GEUS8.1 Review of project results8.2 Identification of knowledge gaps 8.3 T8 Review of results, knowlegde gaps and recommendations for future work T8

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