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Financial Model Dashboard
Key Details
Name of the Company
Last Balance Sheet Date
Model Currency
Trading Statistics
Last Closing Price
52 Week High
52 Week Low
Shares Outstanding
Scenarios
Revenue Buildup Scenario 3
Scenario I - Worst Case
Scenario II - Base Case
Scnerario III - Management Case
Forecasting Method 1
Capex Scenario 1
Regular Capex - Own Stores
Specific Capex - New Mfg. Facility
Loans & Interest Rates
Prime Lending Rate
Interest Rates
ECI Bank - Term Loan
EDFC Bank - WC Loan
Promoter Loan
Working Capital Financing Limit
% of Capital funded by term loan
Term Loan Repayment period
Interest income on ST investments
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Capex & Depreciation
Specific Capex
Routine Capex
Depreciation Method (as per Companies Act, 19 1
SLM (Life)
WDVIncome Tax Act, 1961
WDV Rate
Additional Depreciation
Others & P / L related
Corporate Tax Rate
MAT Rate
Minimum Cash as a % of Sales
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Time Machine Watch Co. Ltd.
3990300%
INR crore
Rs.435
Rs.1,018
Rs.231
4.46 crore
Scnerario III - Management Case
Last 3 years average
Regular Capex - Own Stores
11%
11%
12%
60%
70%
6 years
4%
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Rs.1,000crore
2%
SLM (Life)
10 years
12%
40%
20%
31%
18.54%
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0 HistoFinancial Model 2007A 2008A
Profit & Loss Account
P&L Related Assumptions
YoY Growth in Net Revenue 24.8% 28.7%
Scenario I - Worst Case
Decrease p.a.
Scenario II - Base Case
Scneraio III - Management Case
Increase p.a.
VAT as % of Net Revenue 3.4% 2.9%
Materials Consumed as % of Net Revenue 70.3% 69.1%Manufacturing Expenses as % of Net Revenue 7.2% 7.6%
SG&A as a % of Net Revenue 8.3% 8.3%
Royalty as a % of Net Revenue 1.2% 1.2%
Other Operating Expenses as a % of Net Revenue 3.1% 2.8%
Other Operating Expenses as a % of SG & A 37.3% 33.9%
Other Operating Expenses - Growth % - 16.4%
Effective Tax Rate 24.8% 24.9%
Dividends as % of Net Profits 14.3% 8.9%
Dividend as a % of Share Capital (DPS) 17.9% 17.9%
Dividend as a % of FCFF
Working Capital Related Assumptions
Inventory T/O 145 days 124 days
Debtors T/O 99 days 96 days
Creditors T/O 179 days 159 days
Provisions as a % of Gross Revenue 1.6% 1.8%
Capex Related Assumptions
Capex as % of Net Revenue - Scenario I 4%
Capex as % of Net Revenue - Scenario II
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Specific Capex of 1000 crore (in % terms)
Specific Capex (in absolute terms)
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ricals
2009A 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
45.1% Err:502 31.7% 36.7% 41.7% 46.7% 51.7%
26.7% 22.7% 18.7% 14.7% 10.7% 6.7%
4.0%
26.7% 26.7% 26.7% 26.7% 26.7% 26.7%
26.7% 31.7% 36.7% 41.7% 46.7% 51.7%
5.0%
2.2% Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
68.0% Err:502 69.1% 69.1% 69.1% 69.1% 69.1%8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%
8.2% Err:502 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3%
1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
3.1% Err:502 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
38.0% 36.4% 36.4% 36.4% 36.4% 36.4% 36.4%
61.6% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0%
22.4% Err:502 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0%
7.7% Err:502 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3%
22.4% 19.4% 19.4% 19.4% 19.4% 19.4% 19.4%
156 days Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
78 days 91 days 91 days 91 days 91 days 91 days 91 days
118 days 152 days 152 days 152 days 152 days 152 days 152 days
2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
7% Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
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30% 70%
0 0
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0 HistoricalsFinancial Model 2007A 2008A 2009A
Calcuations
Capex
Routine Capex
Specific Capex
Total Capex
Depreciation as per Companies Act
SLMGross Block (as on 2010) 497.3
Accumulated Depreciation (264.3)
Existing Assets
Capex in FY 2010
Capex in FY 2011
Capex in FY 2012
Capex in FY 2013
Capex in FY 2014
Capex in FY 2015
Capex in FY 2016
Depreciation as per IT Act
Term Loan related calculations
Working Capital related calculations
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Promoter Loan
Short Term Investments
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2010E 2011B 2012B 2013B 2014B 2015B
Err:502
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0 HistoricalsFinancial Model 2007A 2008A 2009A
Profit & Loss Account
RevenuesGross Revenues 1,156.8 1,481.3 2,136.5
Less: VAT (37.6) (41.2) (46.2)
Net Revenues 896.8 1,119.2 1,440.1 2,090.3
Other Income -- 0.0 0.0
Total Income 1,119.2 1,440.1 2,090.3
Materials Consumed (786.8) (995.7) (1,420.6)
Manufacturing Expenses (80.8) (110.1) (167.1)
Cost of Goods Sold (867.6) (1,105.8) (1,587.7)
Gross Profit 251.6 334.3 502.6
Margin % 0.2 23% 24%
Growth % NA 33% 50%
Selling, General & Admin Exps (93.0) (119.1) (171.7)
Royalty Expenses (13.5) (17.3) (25.0)
Other Operating Expenses (34.7) (40.4) (65.3)
Total Operating Expenses (141.2) (176.8) (262.0)
EBITDA 110.4 157.5 240.6
Margin % 0.1 11% 12%
Growth % NA 43% 53%
Depreciation (16.6) (21.2) (30.6)
EBIT 93.8 136.3 210.0
Margin % 0.1 9% 10%
Growth % NA 45% 54%
Interest Expense (20.5) (20.5) (48.5)
Interest Income 1.2 3.7 5.6
PBT 74.5 119.5 167.1
Margin % 0.1 8% 8%
Growth % NA 60% 40%
(18.5) (29.7) (37.4)Income Tax (Current Tax Only)
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PAT 56.0 89.8 129.7
Dividends (8.0) (8.0) (10.0)
Deferred Tax - (6.1) 6.3
Taxes for earlier years (11.0) (27.6) 9.1
Exceptional Items - 12.0 (23.3)Appropriations (17.7) (22.5) (48.6)
(36.7) (52.2) (66.5)
PAT : Post Appropriations 19.3 37.6 63.2
P&L brought forward 50.0 69.3 106.9
PAT : Carried Forward 69.3 106.9 170.1
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2010E 2011B 2012B 2013B 2014B 2015B
Err:502 Err:502 4,637.8 6,573.5 9,645.6 14,635.8
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Err:502 Err:502 4,771.9 6,763.5 9,924.5 15,059.0
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 (3,662.6) (5,191.3) (7,617.4) (11,558.4)
Err:502 811.3 1,109.3 1,572.3 2,307.1 3,500.6
Err:502 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
Err:502 32% 37% 42% 47% 52%
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 (435.4) (595.3) (843.8) (1,238.2) (1,878.7)
Err:502 375.9 514.0 728.5 1,068.9 1,621.9
Err:502 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
Err:502 32% 37% 42% 47% 52%
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0 HistoricalsFinancial Model 2007A 2008A 2009A
Balance Sheet
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Shareholders FundsShare Capital 44.6 44.6 44.6
Securities Premium 100.0 100.0 100.0
General Reserve 159.6 182.1 230.7
P&L Account 69.3 106.9 170.1
Loan Funds
ECI Bank Term Loan -- -- 100.0
EDFC Security WC Loan 180.0 254.1 384.0
Unsecured Loans - Promoter Loans 24.6 24.6 34.6
Deferred Tax Liability (Net) 17.7 23.8 17.4
TOTAL 595.8 736.1 1,081.4
APPLICACTION OF FUNDS
Fixed Assets
Gross Block (at cost) 350 410.2 497.3
Less : Accumulated Depreciation (212.5) (233.7) (264.3)
Net Block 137.5 176.5 233.0
Investments 25.0 27.0 58.9
Current assets, loans and advances
Inventories 345.2 374.4 677.5
Sundry Debtors 312.6 390.1 458.9
Loans & Advances 18.0 35.6 48.3
Cash & Bank Balances 20.7 42.3 86.9
Short term investments 140.0 151.3 31.2
Less : Current Liabilities & Provisions
Creditors (385.0) (435.1) (458.6)
Provisions (18.9) (26.7) (55.4)
Net Current Assets 432.6 531.9 788.8
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Miscellaneous Expenditure -- -- --
TOTAL 595.1 735.4 1,080.7
Balance Sheet Difference 0.7 0.7 0.7
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2010E 2011B 2012B 2013B 2014B
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0 HistoFinancial Model 2007A 2008A
Cash Flow Statement
OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Net Profit for the year 89.8Add: Depreciation 21.2
Net Interest Expense 16.8
127.8
Changes in Working Capital
(Increase) / Decrease in Inventory (29.2)
(Increase) / Decrease in Sundry Debtors (77.5)
(Increase) / Decrease in Loans & Advances (17.6)
(Increase) / Decrease in Sundry Creditors 50.1(Increase) / Decrease in Provisions 7.8
(66.4)
Net Cash Flow from Operational Activties (Normalized) 61.4
Exceptional Items (15.6)
Net Cash Flow from Operational Activties (Reported) 45.8
INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES
Capex (60.2)
Proceeds from Sale of Assets
(Increase) / Sale of LT Investments (2.0)
Interest Income 3.7
Net Cash Flow from Investment Activities (58.5)
FINANCING ACTIVITIES
New issue of Equity --
New loans drawn 74.1
Repayment of term loans --
Interest Expense (20.5)
Dividends Paid (8.0)
Net Cash Flow from Financing Activities 45.6
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Net Cash during the year 32.9
Opening Cash 20.7
(Increase) / Decrease in ST Investments -- (11.3)
Increase / (Decrease) in Promoted Loans -- --
Closing Cash 42.3
Free Cash Flow to Equity 39.2
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ricals
2009A 2010E 2011B 2012B 2013B 2014B
129.730.6
42.9
203.2
(303.1)
(68.8)
(12.7)
23.528.7
(332.4)
(129.2)
9.1
(120.1)
(152.5)
42.0
(31.9)
5.6
(136.8)
--
229.9
--
(48.5)
(10.0)
171.4
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(85.5)
42.3
120.1
10.0
86.9
(91.2)
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Row Labels
Admin
East
Amit
###
SouthTunny
###
West
Mohan
###
Finance
East
Munny
###
SouthSohan
###
West
anuRadha
###
rosy
###
HR
East
Ram###
West
sumit
###
Sunny
###
(blank)
(blank)
(blank)
(blank)
Grand Total
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Sr. No. st Na ast Nam Region Dept DOJ ualification Basic
1 Amit Sharma East Admin 2/28/2005 Graduate 18000
2 sumit verma West HR 7/16/2007 ost Graduate 22000
3 uRadh gupta West Finance 7/16/2007 Graduate 22000
4 rosy Fernandise West Finance 7/16/2007 Graduate 220005 Ram Gupta East HR 2/28/2005 Graduate 18000
6 Mohan Sharma West Admin 4/27/2005 ost Graduate 22000
7 Sohan Pande South Finance 7/16/2007 Graduate 15000
8 Sunny Pandya West HR 2/28/2005 ost Graduate 12000
9 Tunny Shah South Admin 2/28/2005 Graduate 10000
10 Munny Patel East Finance 5/19/2006 ost Graduate 6000
Row Labels
AdminEast
Amit
###
South
Tunny
###
West
Mohan
###
FinanceEast
Munny
###
South
Sohan
###
West
anuRadha
###
rosy
###
HR
East
Ram
###
West
sumit
###
Sunny
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###
(blank)
(blank)
(blank)
(blank)
Grand Total
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Year evenue BITD BITDA %
1 1000 500 50%
2 1200 700 58%
3 700 250 36%
1
1
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
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2 3
2 3
Revenues
EBITDA
EBITDA %
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Sr. No. Name Amount
1 A 1000
2 B 1220
3 C 13004 D 2335
5 E 1243
6 F 2342
7 G 4572
8 H 567
9 I 234
10 J 56876
A 1000
B 1220
C 1300
D 2335
E 1243
F 2342
G 4572
H 567
I 234
J 56876