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Confidential – not for third party distribution © The Kadmos Initiative (Pvt) Ltd. 2009
Advanced Financial Modeling
January 2010
Center for Executive Education
Leadership and Ideas for Tomorrow
Confidential – not for third party distribution © The Kadmos Initiative (Pvt) Ltd. 2009
About The Kadmos Initiative Pvt Ltd.
1
Founded in 2009 by Isfandiyar Shaheen, The Kadmos Initiative (Pvt) Ltd. is a hybrid financial advisory and learning company which provides financial modeling and valuation training courses. Serving financial institutions, corporations entrepreneurs and students, TKI’s goal is to demonstrate the application of finance theory by combining hands-on instruction with practical examples and live deal simulations.
TKI’s extensive list of career partners provide networking opportunities to job seekers, existing finance professionals and potential MBA candidates. Entrepreneurs are provided with a platform through which they can turn an idea into a venture; by teaming with TKI, entrepreneurs can learn the tools required to prepare a marketable business plan. TKI also offers exciting career opportunities, and will give preference to applicants who have successfully completed our training modules.
For more information, please visit our website at www.kadmosinitiative.com
Isfandiyar Shaheen (Asfi) – Instructor
Isfandiyar Shaheen (Asfi) is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of The Kadmos Initiative Pvt Ltd. Prior to establishing TKI, Asfi was an investment banker at Seabury Aviation & Aerospace. At Seabury, Asfi has participated in M&A advisory, financial restructuring and privatization assignments. Asfi has extensive experience with financial modeling, valuation and business plan implementation. Prior to joining Seabury, Asfi was an Analyst at Analysis Group, where his primary responsibilities included developing valuation models for commercial litigation cases.
Asfi graduated from Franklin and Marshall College (cum laude) with degrees in Economics (Honors) and Mathematics and is Series 7 & 63 qualified.
Seabury Aviation & Aerospace is the leading independent transportation-focused investment banking and advisory firm serving aviation, aerospace, cargo and maritime on a global basis. The company's professionals have advised over 225 clients worldwide in the airline, aerospace, cargo/logistics and maritime sectors.
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Table of Contents
2
1. Overview of Advanced Financial Modeling2. Kadmos Modeling Framework3. Thebes Airport: Situation Overview4. Income Statement Projections5. Tax Depreciation and Deferred Tax Liability6. Revolving Credit Agreements and Debt Schedule7. Sale Leasebacks8. Options and Treasury Stock9. Trouble Shooting and Jump Starting Financial Models10. Data Tables11. Utilizing Text Functions12. Building Scenarios
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Pre-requisites and Assumptions
3
Basic knowledge of financial modeling, and an ability to modify existing models
Knowledge of financial accounting and familiarity with financial statements
Strong MS Excel skills and familiarity with Excel Best Practices
Ability to set up financial models and modify architecture
Completion of Financial Modeling Module I offered by The Kadmos Initiative (Recommended, but not required)
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Module Overview
4
Introduction to advanced modeling concepts:- Revolving credit agreements- Deferred taxation- Sale Leasebacks- Share issuances / (buy-backs)- Dilution by options and impact on capital structure
No detailed overview of the operating model and architecture
Introduction to Data Tables and TEXT functions
Trouble shooting and jump starting “busted” models
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Table of Contents
5
1. Overview of Advanced Financial Modeling2. Kadmos Modeling Framework3. Thebes Airport: Situation Overview4. Income Statement Projections5. Tax Depreciation and Deferred Tax Liability6. Sale Leasebacks7. Revolving Credit Agreements and Debt Schedule8. Trouble Shooting and Jump Starting Financial Models9. Data Tables10. Utilizing Text Functions11. Building Scenarios
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Core Statements – Income Statement
6
A basic financial model requires the construction of 3 core statements; Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement Always begin work on a financial model with the Income Statement, and think
clearly about drivers required to complete Income Statement projections Income Statement items above EBITDA are projected using various
methodologies, details of which will be discussed further in the next section
Income Statement Historical Financials Projected Financials(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revenue Projections may be developed using historical figures and research reportsCost of Goods Sold Management typically provides guidance on expected COGS
Gross Profit (Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold)
SG&A Expense Management typically has a budget which details SG&A ExpensesEBITDA (Gross Profit - SG&A Expenses)
Depreciation & Amortization Requires Cap Ex and D&A ScheduleEBIT (EBITDA - Depreciation & Amortization)
Interest Expense Requires Debt & Interest ScheduleInterest Income Calculated based on prevailing interest rates and average cash balances
EBT (EBIT - Interest Expense + Interest Income)
Taxes @ 35.0% Tax Schedule depending on jurisdiction and Company situation requiredNet Income (Pre-tax Income - Taxes)
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Core Statements – Balance Sheet
7
Once the Income Statement is developed, next steps are projecting the Balance Sheet and preparing a corresponding Cash Flow Statement
- It is advisable to project the Balance Sheet first, however some practitioners prefer projecting the Cash Flow Statement and then preparing the corresponding BS
Balance Sheet Historical Financials Projected Financials(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AssetsCash and Equivalents Previous year's cash balance + change in cash, which comes from CF StatementAccounts Receivable Requires Working Capital ScheduleInventory Requires Working Capital ScheduleOther Current Assets Requires Working Capital Schedule
Total Current Assets (Cash and Equivalents + Accounts Receivable + Inventory + Other Current Assets)
Gross PP&E Existing PP&E + related capital expenditures; Requires CapEx and D&A ScheduleOther Non Current Assets Existing Other Non Current Assets + related capital expenditures; Requires CapEx and D&A ScheduleAccumulated Depreciation Existing Accumulated Depreciation + book depreciation; Requires CapEx and D&A Schedule
Total Assets (Total Current Assets + Gross PP&E + Other Non Current Assets - Accumulate Depreciation)
Liabilities and Shareholders' EquityAccounts Payable Requires Working Capital ScheduleAccrued Expenses and Other Current Liabilities Requires Working Capital Schedule
Total Current Liabilities (Accounts Payable + Accrued Expenses and Other Current Liabilities)
Secured Debt Requires Debt and Interest ScheduleUnsecured Debt Requires Debt and Interest Schedule
Total Debt (Secured Debt + Unsecured Debt)
Other Non Current Liabilities Requires schedules detailing unwinding of liabilities OR line item may be projected within the Working Capital ScheduleTotal Liabilities (Total Current Liabilities + Total Debt + Other Non Current Liabilities)
Shareholders' EquityAuthorized Capital of XXX,XXX,XXX common shares Note: Authorized Capital is not added in the Shareholder's Equity section of the balance sheetof Rs. XX eachCommon stock issued at par Par value of issued sharesAdditional paid-in capital Capital paid by investors in excess of par value of common stockAccumulated earnings (deficit) Previous year's balance + Net Income - Dividends Paid
Total Shareholders’ Equity (Common stock + APIC + Accumulated Earnings)
Total Liabilities & Shareholders’ Equity (Total Liabilities + Total Shareholder's Equity)
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Core Statements – Cash Flow Statement
8
The Balance Sheet requires a resulting component for it to balance – Cash! The Cash Flow statement is thus projected using the Balance Sheet, with cash
being the variable that balances a Balance Sheet
Cash Flow Statement Historical Financials Projected Financials(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cash Flow from OperationsNet Income From Income Statement(+) Depreciation & Amortization From Income Statement (D&A is a non cash item)(Increase)/Decrease in Accounts Receivable For 2009: AR in 2008 - AR in 2009(Increase)/Decrease in Inventory For 2009: Inventory in 2008 - Inventory in 2009(Increase)/Decrease in Other Current Assets For 2009: Other Current Assets in 2008 - Other Current Assets in 2009Increase/(Decrease) in Accounts Payable For 2009: AP in 2009 - AP in 2008Increase/(Decrease) in Accr. Exp and Other CL For 2009: Accr. Exp & Other CL in 2009 - Accr. Exp & Other CL in 2008Increase/(Decrease) in Accrued Exp. And Other Non CL For 2009: Accr. Exp & Other Non CL in 2009 - Accr. Exp & Other Non CL in 2008
Total Cash Flow from Operating Activities (SUM all items above); Be careful with signs for working capital changes
Cash Flow from Investing Activities(-) Capital Expenditures Management typically provides guidance on CapEx; often CapEx = D&A is assumed(+) Asset Sales Management typically provides guidance on Asset Sales(-) Acquisition of Assets / Other Securities Management typically provides guidance on Acquisition of Assets
Total Cash Flow from Investing Activities (Asset Sales - CapEx - Acquisition of Assets)
Cash Flow from Financing(+) Issuance of Common Stock Management typically provides guidance(+) Proceeds from Secured Debt Requires Debt & Interest Schedule(+) Proceeds from Unsecured Debt Requires Debt & Interest Schedule(+) Proceeds from Equity Raise from Foreign Investor Requires Shareholder's Equity Schedule(-) Dividends Paid Requires Shareholder's Equity Schedule(-) Payment of Secured Debt Requires Debt & Interest Schedule(-) Payment of Unsecured Debt Requires Debt & Interest Schedule
Total Cash Flow from Investing Activities (SUM all items above); Be careful with signs for debt payments and debt proceeds
Change in Cash Balance (Cash flow from Operation + Investing + Financing)Change in cash is linked back to the balance sheet, and that is how a balance sheet is balanced!
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Kadmos Modeling Framework
9
1.Construct the Income Statement, all items above EBITDA are projected using various methods which will be discussed further in the next section
2.The following schedules are required to complete the Income Statement Cap Ex and D&A Schedule Debt and Interest Schedule Tax Schedule
3.Upon completion of Income Statement, prepare the following schedules to project the Balance Sheet, in the following order: Working Capital Schedule Shareholder’s Equity Schedule
4.After Step 3 only Cash and Equivalents on the Balance Sheet will remain unfilled, use the Cash Flow Statement to populate projected Cash and Equivalents, and simultaneously complete both Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement
5.Incorporate a circular reference to calculate Interest Income in the Income Statement based on Cash and Equivalents on Balance Sheet
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Table of Contents
10
1. Overview of Advanced Financial Modeling2. Kadmos Modeling Framework3. Thebes Airport: Situation Overview4. Income Statement Projections5. Tax Depreciation and Deferred Tax Liability6. Revolving Credit Agreements and Debt Schedule7. Sale Leasebacks8. Options and Treasury Stock9. Trouble Shooting and Jump Starting Financial Models10. Data Tables11. Utilizing Text Functions12. Building Scenarios
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Thebes Airport: Overview
11
Thebes Airport (“Company” or “Thebes”) is located in Asia and is majority owned by Frontier Capital Corporation
The Company has a market capitalization of Rs. 261 MM as of 05/04/2009 and revenue of approximately Rs. 75 MM
Due to an Open Skies treaty between Thebes and neighboring countries, the airport is poised to grow significantly over the next 5 years
To facilitate expansion, the airport’s management is expecting a significant increase in Capital Expenditures which can not be financed by existing cash balances
Management has circulated a Request for Proposal to potential investors for an equity investment
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Thebes Airport: Financial Statements
12
Thebes Airport was established in 1995, presented below are its Income Statement and Balance Sheet
Income Statement Historical Financials(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) 2006 2007 2008
RevenueLanding Fees 4,188 4,603 4,990Handling Fees 21,670 25,179 28,318Embarkation Fees 14,910 17,003 18,663
Total Operating Revenue 40,769 46,785 51,971
Non Operating RevenueAirport Development Fund 9,564 11,478 12,389Flying Club 2,000 2,000 2,000Rental Income 5,600 6,735 8,353
Total Revenue Rs.57,933 Rs.66,998 Rs.74,713
Operating CostsStaff salaries (9,044) (9,768) (10,549)Maintenance (8,403) (8,874) (9,282)Marketing & Advertising (8,843) (9,506) (10,267)Other Operating Costs (1,200) (1,380) (1,587)
EBITDA 30,442 37,470 43,028
Depreciation & Amortization (21,400) (22,400) (23,352)EBIT 9,042 15,070 19,676
Interest Expense (3,190) (3,085) (3,020)Interest Income 939 939 939
EBT 6,791 12,924 17,595
Taxes @ 35% (2,377) (4,523) (6,158)Net Income Rs.4,414 Rs.8,400 Rs.11,437
Net Income Margin 7.6% 12.5% 15.3%
Balance Sheet Historical Financials(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) 2006 2007 2008
AssetsCash and Equivalents 10,430 14,028 19,970Accounts Receivable 13,000 13,910 14,884Inventory 5,000 5,400 5,500Other Current Assets 9,105 10,016 11,017
Total Current Assets 37,535 43,353 51,370
Gross PP&E 500,000 520,000 540,800Other Non Current Assets 25,889 26,666 27,466Accumulated Depreciation (167,654) (190,054) (213,406)
Total Assets Rs.395,770 Rs.399,965 Rs.406,230
Liabilities and Shareholders' EquityAccounts Payable 2,476 2,426 2,378Accrued Expenses and Other Current Liabilities 2,467 2,418 2,369
Total Current Liabilities 4,943 4,844 4,747
Secured Debt 24,000 22,000 20,000Unsecured Debt 10,000 9,000 8,000
Total Debt 34,000 31,000 28,000
Other Non Current Liabilities 10,123 9,921 9,722Total Liabilities 49,066 45,765 42,469
Shareholders' EquityAuthorized Capital of 200,000,000 common sharesof Rs. 1 eachCommon stock issued at par 100,000 100,300 100,601Additional paid-in capital 234,987 235,692 236,399Common stock issued at par to SASAdditional paid-in capital by SASAccumulated earnings (deficit) 11,717 18,208 26,761
Total Shareholders’ Equity 346,704 354,200 363,761
Total Liabilities & Shareholders’ Equity Rs.395,770 Rs.399,965 Rs.406,230
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Thebes Airport: Capital Structure
13
Thebes Airport is a publicly listed company and is majority owned by Frontier Capital Corporation
Market Capitalization =Stock Price X Common Shares Outstanding
Enterprise Value =Market Capitalization + Total Debt - Cash
Valuation as of 05/04/2009
Common shares Outstanding as of 12/31/2008 100,601Stock Price as of 05/04/2009 Rs. 2.6Market Capitalization Rs. 261,562
(+) Total Debt 28,000(-) Cash and Equivalents 19,970Enterprise Value Rs. 269,593
FY 2008 Revenue Rs. 74,713FY 2008 EBITDA 43,028FY 2008 Net Income 11,437
Enterprise Value / Revenue 3.6xEnterprise Value / EBITDA 6.3xPrice / Earnings 22.9x
Capital Structure as of 05/04/2009
Shareholders % of Total Common shares heldFrontier Capital Corporation 55% 55,345Shareef Brothers Limited 17% 16,893Establishment Foundation 15% 15,456Publicly Traded 13% 12,907Total Common Shares Outstanding 100% 100,601
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SAS Capital Partners: Situation Overview
14
SAS Capital Partners is a Rs. 500 Mn investment fund and has retained us as Buy-Side advisor to make an investment in Thebes Airport
SAS typically makes minority investments in infrastructure assets in the MENASA region and has a target IRR of 20%
Investment holding period for SAS is 4-6 years
Due to the credit crises, SAS Capital is able to offer only Rs. 10 Mn, which is not enough for Thebes Airport to finance Capital Expenditures and fulfill working capital requirements
Thebes management decides to stop all dividend payments, but they will still run out of cash in 2010
As a result, Thebes Management has hired us to prepare a new financial model and help them raise alternate means of financing
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SAS Capital Partners: Situation Overview
15
Even though profitability is improving, there is a Rs 16.7 Mn short-fall in cash in 2010 due to Capital Expenditures of approx. Rs. 55 Mn / year in 2009-2011
Income Statement(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) Projected Financials
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Total Revenue 82,742 94,488 104,695 141,359 176,227 194,407 214,443EBITDA 46,801 53,959 60,049 85,497 109,698 122,317 136,224EBIT 21,591 24,913 27,162 52,484 76,561 89,054 102,836Net Income 12,530 14,450 15,849 34,029 51,798 62,428 74,205
Balance Sheet Projected Financials(Pak Rupees in MM, except per share amounts) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AssetsCash and Equivalents 7,533 (10,574) (22,849) 32,702 107,331 196,961 298,514Other Current Assets 36,384 40,346 43,430 56,296 67,702 72,302 77,165
Total Current Assets 43,917 29,772 20,581 88,998 175,033 269,263 375,680
Non Current Assets 385,402 413,298 437,402 405,640 373,753 341,741 309,603Total Assets 429,318 443,069 457,983 494,638 548,786 611,003 685,283
Liabilities and Shareholders' EquityTotal Current Liabilities 5,915 6,670 7,347 9,193 10,948 11,863 12,872Total Debt 25,000 22,000 19,000 16,000 13,000 10,000 7,000Other Non Current Liabilities 12,113 13,659 15,046 18,826 22,421 24,296 26,361
Total Liabilities 43,027 42,328 41,394 44,019 46,369 46,159 46,233
Total Shareholder's Equity 386,291 400,741 416,589 450,619 502,417 564,844 639,050
Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity 429,318 443,069 457,983 494,638 548,786 611,003 685,283
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Table of Contents
16
1. Overview of Advanced Financial Modeling2. Kadmos Modeling Framework3. Thebes Airport: Situation Overview4. Income Statement Projections5. Tax Depreciation and Deferred Tax Liability6. Revolving Credit Agreements and Debt Schedule7. Sale Leasebacks8. Options and Treasury Stock9. Trouble Shooting and Jump Starting Financial Models10. Data Tables11. Utilizing Text Functions12. Building Scenarios
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What is an Operating Model?
17
Development of core revenue and cost drivers which describe a business
A due diligence tool for investors seeking to establish viability of a business
The building blocks of Income Statement items above the EBITDA line
A good operating model is one which can explain very clearly how and why a business generates revenue
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Revenue Projections
18
At the most basic level Revenue = Price X Volume, which can be further broken down into components
Assuming an arbitrary growth rate for revenue based on historical growth and other economic indicators results in projections which are not defensible
To understand how and why a business will generate revenue, it is essential to ask the right questions, the following are a few examples:
- What were the Company’s revenues for the past 3-5 years?- What is the growth rate for the industry or major competitors?- What is the competitive positioning of the Company? Is it poised to steal market
share and outpace industry due to differentiating factors that are sustainable? - What are the pricing trends in the industry? When evaluating pricing trends it is
critical to identify the customers in the relevant market segment. E.g. Swatch and Rolex are both watch makers, but fall in entirely different market segments
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Airport Economics: Revenue
19
What happens at an airport and how do airports generate revenue?- Aircraft lands or takes off, passengers board an airplane or disembark, thus at a
basic level, airports charge landing fees, embarkation fees and handling fees What are landing fees and how can they be projected?
- Landing fees should typically depend on aircraft size or weight- Thus, for a given aircraft type (e.g. B737-300 which has a Maximum Takeoff Weight
of approx 61 tons), multiply number of aircraft movements by aircraft weight by landing charge per ton to arrive at revenue from landing fees
What are handling fees and how can they be projected?- Airport operators charge a fee for passenger luggage and cargo handling, which is
typically done on a per flight basis, different business models exist in this case, but for now assume airport operator is charging a fee per aircraft movement
- Thus, revenue from handling fees is total aircraft movements in a given period multiplied by handling charges / AC movement
What are embarkation fees and can they be projected?- For every embarking passenger, airport operators charge a fee. To determine
passenger movements, a load factor or occupancy rate assumption is required- Once passenger forecast is determined, multiply total passengers in a given period
by embarkation fee / passenger to arrive at revenue from embarkation fees
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Airport Economics: Revenue Forecasting
20
Assembling a revenue forecast requires researching appropriate drivers, business model under consideration and additional relevant factors A revenue forecast developed using a bottom-up approach is more useful as
compared with making high level and relatively arbitrary assumptions However, it is essential to pick a starting point when developing projections
otherwise one can easily get lost in the details:- To project revenue for an airport one requires a traffic forecast- Traffic forecast is dependent on the number of aircraft orders placed with OEMs
and also regulatory issues- Aircraft orders are dependent on the global economy, health of financial markets
and the airline industry Forecasting aircraft orders would typically be beyond the scope of a financial
modeling exercise in an M&A transaction or even for business planning purposes
There is no correct starting point when using a bottom-up approach, and is usually a judgment call
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Airport Economics: Operating Costs
21
What are the major operating costs for an airport?- Typically, Staff Salaries, Maintenance and Marketing are the major costs for an
airport How are operating costs projected?
- Management often provides guidelines on cost projections, however operating cost drivers can be developed using historical ratios
- Some suggested cost drivers are as follows:– Staff Salaries as a % of Operating Revenue– Maintenance as a % of Property Plant & Equipment– Marketing as a % of Revenue– Other Operating Costs as a % of Total Operating Costs (Excl. Other Operating Costs)
In the above example, to project Maintenance expense, we require constructing a Cap Ex and D&A schedule to complete the Income Statement
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It is advisable to brain storm the operating model set up on a piece of paper before beginning the exercise in MS Excel In the airport example, we have identified the following as required drivers to
project landing, handling and embarkation fees:- Aircraft Weight
– Thus, we further require no. of seats in an aircraft and its maximum take off weight (MTOW)
- Aircraft Movements– An Aircraft Movement is defined as an aircraft landing or aircraft take-off. One arrival and
one departure are counted as two aircraft movements– Projecting aircraft movements is beyond the scope of this exercise, thus we will have to
resort to a forecast prepared by an industry consultant– For simplicity all rates are stated on an Aircraft Movement basis
- Passengers– We can make assumptions on the average occupancy or load factor to determine passenger
movements
- For Non Operating Revenue and Operating Costs we can make assumptions based on historical ratios
Thus, we need to list out the above information in a neat, presentable format which will become the basis of our operating model
Airport Economics: Operating Model Set Up
22
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Airport Economics: Operating Model Set Up
23
Input the required historical driversNote: Inputs are always BLUE
Operating ModelAircraft Specifications # of Seats LF Assump. MTOW (Tons) Revenue Driver Inflation Assumptions
B-737-300 Operating Revenue: Assumption: Rate:A-320 Landing Charges / TonA310 Handling Charges / AC MovementB747 Emarkation Fees / Passenger
Non Operating Revenue: Assumption: Rate:Airport Development FundFlying ClubRental Income
Revenue Driver Rates Historical Projected2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Landing Fees / Ton (PKR)Handling Charges / AC Movement (PKR)Embarkation Fees / Passenger (PKR)
Aircraft Traffic Forecast 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Aircraft Movements
B-737-300A-320A310B747
Historical Load FactorB-737-300A-320A310B747
Passenger Forecast 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012B-737-300A-320A310B747
Operating Cost Rates Historical Projected2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Staff salaries as a % of Operating RevenueMaintenance as a % of PP&EMarketing & Advertising as a % of RevenueOther Operating Costs as a % of Total Op Costs (ex-OOC)
Step 1: Set up the operating model as shown
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Airport Economics: Operating Model Set Up
24
Calculations based on average historical ratios
Calculated as: # of Seats X Aircraft Movements X Load Factor
Step 2: Input required historical figures, rates and drivers to prepare projections
Calculated based on LF assumption by aircraft type
Air Traffic forecast taken from an Industry Consultant’s report
Calculated based on Revenue Driver Inflation Assumptions
Operating ModelAircraft Specifications # of Seats LF Assump. MTOW (Tons) Revenue Driver Inflation Assumptions
B-737-300 118 0.5% Annually 61 Operating Revenue: Assumption: Rate:A-320 140 0.8% Annually 73 Landing Charges / Ton Annually - Fixed 7%A310 184 0.0% Annually 160 Handling Charges / AC MovementAnnually - Fixed 9%B747 398 -0.3% Annually 350 Emarkation Fees / Passenger Annually - Fixed 9%
Non Operating Revenue: Assumption: Rate:Airport Development Fund as a % of Op Rev 24%Flying Club as a % of Op Rev 4%Rental Income as a % of Op Rev 15%
Revenue Driver Rates Historical Projected2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Landing Fees / Ton (PKR) Rs.93 Rs.96 Rs.99Handling Charges / AC Movement (PKR) 55,000 57,750 60,638Embarkation Fees / Passenger (PKR) 300 315 331
Aircraft Traffic Forecast 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Aircraft Movements
B-737-300 154 160 176A-320 130 156 160A310 65 80 94B747 45 40 37
Historical Load FactorB-737-300 74% 77% 76%A-320 83% 84% 82%A310 72% 73% 76%B747 70% 65% 62%
Passenger Forecast 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012B-737-300 13,447.3 14,537.6 15,783.7A-320 15,106.0 18,345.6 18,368.0A310 8,611.2 10,745.6 13,145.0B747 12,537.0 10,348.0 9,130.1
Operating Cost Rates Historical Projected2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Staff salaries as a % of Operating Revenue 22.2% 20.9% 20.3%Maintenance as a % of PP&E 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%Marketing & Advertising as a % of Revenue 15.3% 14.2% 13.7%Other Operating Costs as a % of Total Op Costs (ex-OOC) 4.6% 4.9% 5.3%
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Airport Economics: Operating Model Set Up
Forecast taken from Industry Consultant’s Report
Projected LF calculated based on LF Assumption
25
Step 3: Calculate projected drivers based on available data
Operating ModelAircraft Specifications # of Seats LF Assump. MTOW (Tons) Revenue Driver Inflation Assumptions
B-737-300 118 0.5% Annually 61 Operating Revenue: Assumption: Rate:A-320 140 0.8% Annually 73 Landing Charges / Ton Annually - Fixed 7%A310 184 0.0% Annually 160 Handling Charges / AC MovementAnnually - Fixed 9%B747 398 -0.3% Annually 350 Emarkation Fees / Passenger Annually - Fixed 9%
Non Operating Revenue: Assumption: Rate:Airport Development Fund as a % of Op Rev 24%Flying Club as a % of Op Rev 4%Rental Income as a % of Op Rev 15%
Revenue Driver Rates Historical Projected2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Landing Fees / Ton (PKR) Rs.93 Rs.96 Rs.99 Rs. 106 Rs. 113 Rs. 121 Rs. 130Handling Charges / AC Movement (PKR) 55,000 57,750 60,638 66,095 72,043 78,527 85,595Embarkation Fees / Passenger (PKR) 300 315 331 361 393 428 467
Aircraft Traffic Forecast 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Aircraft Movements
B-737-300 154 160 176 179 188 213 243A-320 130 156 160 164 174 197 213A310 65 80 94 100 105 135 156B747 45 40 37 35 35 35 35
Historical Load FactorB-737-300 74% 77% 76% 77% 77% 78% 78%A-320 83% 84% 82% 83% 84% 84% 85%A310 72% 73% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76%B747 70% 65% 62% 62% 61% 61% 61%
Passenger Forecast 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012B-737-300 13,447.3 14,537.6 15,783.7 16,158.3 17,081.7 19,478.9 22,365.7A-320 15,106.0 18,345.6 18,368.0 18,999.4 20,340.6 23,236.2 25,347.0A310 8,611.2 10,745.6 13,145.0 13,984.0 14,683.2 18,878.4 21,815.0B747 12,537.0 10,348.0 9,130.1 8,594.8 8,553.0 8,511.2 8,469.4
Operating Cost Rates Historical Projected2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Staff salaries as a % of Operating Revenue 22.2% 20.9% 20.3% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1%Maintenance as a % of PP&E 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%Marketing & Advertising as a % of Revenue 15.3% 14.2% 13.7% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4%Other Operating Costs as a % of Total Op Costs (ex-OOC) 4.6% 4.9% 5.3% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%
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Income Statement Historical Financials Projected Financials2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
RevenueLanding Fees 4,188 4,603 4,990 (Aircraft Movements X Aircraft MTOW X Landing Fees / Ton)Handling Fees 21,670 25,179 28,318 (Aircraft Movements X Handling Charges / Aircraft Movement)Embarkation Fees 14,910 17,003 18,663 (Number of Passengers X Embarkation Fee / Passenger)
Total Operating Revenue 40,769 46,785 51,971`
Non Operating RevenueAirport Development Fund 9,564 11,478 12,389 (% of Total Operating Revenue based on Historical Ratios)Flying Club 2,000 2,000 2,000 (% of Total Operating Revenue based on Historical Ratios)Rental Income 5,600 6,735 8,353 (% of Total Operating Revenue based on Historical Ratios)
Total Revenue Rs.57,933 Rs.66,998 Rs.74,713
Operating CostsStaff salaries (9,044) (9,768) (10,549) (% of Total Operating Revenue based on Historical Ratios)Maintenance (8,403) (8,874) (9,282) (% of PP&E ); Requires Cap Ex and D&A ScheduleMarketing & Advertising (8,843) (9,506) (10,267) (% of Total Revenue based on Historical Ratios)Other Operating Costs (1,200) (1,380) (1,587) (% of Total Operating Costs (excl. OOC))
EBITDA 30,442 37,470 43,028
Depreciation & Amortization (21,400) (22,400) (23,352) Requires Cap Ex and D&A ScheduleEBIT 9,042 15,070 19,676
Interest Expense (3,190) (3,085) (3,020) Requires Debt and Interest ScheduleInterest Income 939 939 939 Requires Cash Balance - Hold Constant at 1,000 for now
EBT 6,791 12,924 17,595
Taxes @ 37.5% (2,377) (4,523) (6,158) Requires Tax ScheduleNet Income 4,414 8,400 11,437
Net Income Margin 7.6% 12.5% 15.3%
Airport Economics: Income Statement
26
Step 4: Set up and link historical Income Statement and identify fields which can be projected based on data gathered thus far
Once the operating model drivers are laid out as discussed in the previous slide, set up the Income Statement
Links must be in GREEN
Calculations in BLACK
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Airport Economics: Projected Income Statement
27
Step 5: Populate fields which can be projected and identify schedules required to complete Income Statement
Alerts in RED
Once the operating model set up, revenue and certain costs can be projected, additional schedules will be required to complete the Income Statement
Income Statement Historical Financials Projected Financials2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
RevenueLanding Fees 4,188 4,603 4,990 5,417 6,032 7,425 8,770Handling Fees 21,670 25,179 28,318 31,593 36,166 45,546 55,380Embarkation Fees 14,910 17,003 18,663 20,815 23,837 30,028 36,415
Total Operating Revenue 40,768.6 46,784.7 51,971.1 57,825.7 66,034.6 82,999.0 100,565.2`
Non Operating RevenueAirport Development Fund 9,564 11,478 12,389 13,855 15,822 19,887 24,096Flying Club 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,487 2,840 3,569 4,325Rental Income 5,600 6,735 8,353 8,574 9,791 12,307 14,911
Total Revenue Rs.57,932.6 Rs.66,997.7 Rs.74,713.1 Rs.82,742.0 Rs.94,488.0 Rs.118,762.1 Rs.143,897.3
Operating CostsStaff salaries (9,044) (9,768) (10,549) (12,213) (13,947) (17,530) (21,240)Maintenance (8,403) (8,874) (9,282) Requires Cap Ex and D&A ScheduleMarketing & Advertising (8,843) (9,506) (10,267) (11,913) (13,605) (17,100) (20,719)Other Operating Costs (1,200) (1,380) (1,587) Requires Cap Ex and D&A Schedule
EBITDA 30,442 37,470 43,028
Depreciation & Amortization (21,400) (22,400) (23,352) Requires Cap Ex and D&A ScheduleEBIT 9,042 15,070 19,676
Interest Expense (3,190) (3,085) (3,020) Requires Debt and Interest ScheduleInterest Income 939 939 939 Requires Cash Balance - Hold Constant at 1,000 for now
EBT 6,791 12,924 17,595
Taxes @ 37.5% (2,377) (4,523) (6,158) Requires Tax ScheduleNet Income 4,414 8,400 11,437
Net Income Margin 7.6% 12.5% 15.3%
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Table of Contents
28
1. Overview of Advanced Financial Modeling2. Kadmos Modeling Framework3. Thebes Airport: Situation Overview4. Income Statement Projections5. Tax Depreciation and Deferred Tax Liability6. Revolving Credit Agreements and Debt Schedule7. Sale Leasebacks8. Options and Treasury Stock9. Trouble Shooting and Jump Starting Financial Models10. Data Tables11. Utilizing Text Functions12. Building Scenarios
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As advisors to Thebes, the first liquidity initiative identified is utilizing accelerated depreciation
Accelerated depreciation allows a company to shield taxes in the near term
Over a cumulative period, total taxes payable on a nominal basis are the same
For companies facing near-term liquidity crunch, utilizing accelerated depreciation can prove helpful in addressing liquidity issues
As a result, we have advised Thebes management to utilize a 3-Year Property MACRS schedule for incremental Capital Expenditures on PP&E
Accelerated Depreciation Overview
29
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Book depreciation is typically recorded using one of the following methods:- Straight line- Sum of year digits- Double declining balances
For taxation purposes, accelerated depreciation can be recorded using MACRS (Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System)
Accelerated depreciation reduces taxes payable in the short-term by increasing depreciation expense resulting in a deferred tax liability
Corporations facing liquidity short falls in the near term can benefit from utilizing accelerated depreciation
Book versus Accelerated Depreciation
30
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The Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) is the current method of accelerated asset depreciation required by the United States income tax code and is also used under IFRS
Under MACRS, all assets are divided into classes which dictate the number of years over which an asset's cost will be recovered
MACRS
31
Property Class Personal Property (all property except real-estate)
3-year property Special handling devices for food and beverage manufacture
Special tools for the manufacture of finished plastic products, fabricated metal products, and motor vehicles
Property with ADR class life of 4 years or less
5-year property Information Systems; Computers / Peripherals
Aircraft (of non-air-transport companies)
Computers
Petroleum drilling equipment
Property with ADR class life of more than 4 years and less than 10 years
Certain geothermal, solar, and wind energy properties.
7-year property All other property not assigned to another class
Office furniture, fixtures, and equipment
Property with ADR class life of more than 10 years and less than 16 years
10-year property Assets used in petroleum refining and certain food products
Vessels and water transportation equipment
Property with ADR class life of 16 years or more and less than 20 years
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The Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) is the current method of accelerated asset depreciation required by the United States income tax code and is also used under IFRS
Under MACRS, all assets are divided into classes which dictate the number of years over which an asset's cost will be recovered
MACRS
32
Recovery Year
3-Year Property
5-Year Property
7-Year Property
10-Year Property
15-Year Property
20-Year Property
1 33.33 20.00 14.29 10.00 5.00 3.750
2 44.45 32.00 24.49 18.00 9.50 7.219
3 14.81 * 19.20 17.49 14.40 8.55 6.677
4 7.41 11.52 * 12.49 11.52 7.70 6.177
5 11.52 8.93 * 9.22 6.93 5.713
6 5.76 8.92 7.37 6.23 5.285
7 8.93 6.55 * 5.90 * 4.888
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Reference and link historical PP&E, Other Non Current Assets, Accumulated Depreciation and related Cap Ex from historical financials
The airport example assumes management has provided guidance on Cap Ex, otherwise the following assumptions are also reasonable:
- Cap Ex can be projected as a % of Sales- Cap Ex can be projected assuming it remains equal to depreciation
Create a schedule which ensures that subsequent Cap Ex is depreciated separately and not lumped in with existing balances
Identify and state depreciation assumption on the schedule
Schedule Set Up – Book Depreciation
33
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Create a copy of the schedule already prepared for Book Depreciation and re-name the tab to identify it as Tax Depreciation
For incremental Capital Expenditures utilize a 3-year property MACRS schedule per which Capital Expenditures will be depreciated using the following schedule
- Year 1 – 33.33%- Year 2 – 44.45%- Year 3 – 14.81%- Year 4 – 7.41%
Schedule Set Up – Tax Depreciation
34
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Cap Ex and D&A Schedule - Tax
35
Step 6: Create a Copy of Cap Ex and D&A – Book, and recalculate depreciation using 3-yrs MACRS for Incremental Cap Ex on PP&E
Cap Ex and D&A ScheduleHistorical Financials Projected Financials
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Property Plant & Equipment 500,000 520,000 540,800 595,552 651,294 707,036 707,036 707,036 707,036 707,036Other Non Current Assets 25,889 26,666 27,466 28,466 29,666 30,916 32,166 33,416 34,666 35,916Accumulated Depreciation (167,654) (190,054) (213,406) (253,215) (317,811) (391,081) (450,100) (484,541) (510,851) (533,156)Capital Exependitures - PP&E 20,000 20,800 54,752 55,742 55,742Capital Exependitures - Other Non Current Assets 777 800 1,000 1,200 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250 1,250
Depreciation Expense (A + B + C + D) 21,400 22,400 23,352 39,809 64,596 73,270 59,020 34,441 26,310 22,305
D&A Method: Straight Line assuming no residual value
(A)----> Depreciation on Existing Gross PP&E 18,027 18,027 18,027 18,027 18,027 18,027 18,027Useful Life (in years) Remaining of Existing Net PP&E 30
33.33% 44.45% 14.81% 7.41%Year CapEx Useful Life 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152009 54,752 15 Years 18,249 24,337 8,109 4,057 0 0 02010 55,742 15 Years 18,579 24,777 8,255 4,130 0 02011 55,742 15 Years 18,579 24,777 8,255 4,130 02012 0 15 Years 0 0 0 02013 0 15 Years 0 0 02014 0 15 Years 0 02015 0 15 Years 0
(B)----> Depreciation on Cap Ex 18,249 42,916 51,465 37,090 12,386 4,130 0
(C)----> Depreciation on Other Non Current Assets 3,433 3,433 3,433 3,433 3,433 3,433 3,433Useful Life (in years) Remaining of Existing Net PP&E 8
Year CapEx Useful Life 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152009 1,000 10 Years 100 100 100 100 100 100 1002010 1,200 10 Years 120 120 120 120 120 1202011 1,250 10 Years 125 125 125 125 1252012 1,250 10 Years 125 125 125 1252013 1,250 10 Years 125 125 1252014 1,250 10 Years 125 1252015 1,250 10 Years 125
(D)----> Depreciation on Cap Ex 100 220 345 470 595 720 845
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Tax Schedule
36
Step 7: Calculate taxes payable based on accelerated depreciation and also calculate difference between book versus cash tax payable
Tax Schedule
Projected2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EBT Rs. 19,277.7 Rs. 22,230.2 Rs. 24,382.6 Rs. 52,352.5 Rs. 79,689.2 Rs. 96,042.9 Rs. 114,161.8Tax Rate 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0%Taxes Payable ($6,747.2) ($7,780.6) ($8,533.9) ($18,323.4) ($27,891.2) ($33,615.0) ($39,956.6)
EBITDA Rs. 46,801.4 Rs. 53,959.3 Rs. 60,048.9 Rs. 85,496.7 Rs. 109,698.2 Rs. 122,316.7 Rs. 136,223.5D&A - Tax (39,809) (64,596) (73,270) (59,020) (34,441) (26,310) (22,305)Net Interest Expense (2,314) (2,683) (2,779) (132) 3,128 6,988 11,326EBT - Tax Rs. 4,679.0 ($13,319.6) ($15,999.9) Rs. 26,345.1 Rs. 78,385.7 Rs. 102,994.8 Rs. 125,244.2
Taxes - Cash -------- (A) 1,637.6 0.0 0.0 9,220.8 27,435.0 36,048.2 43,835.5
Taxes - Book -------- (B) 6,747.2 7,780.6 8,533.9 18,323.4 27,891.2 33,615.0 39,956.6
Deferred Taxes (B) - (A) 5,109.5 7,780.6 8,533.9 9,102.6 456.2 (2,433.2) (3,878.8)
Deferred Taxes - Balance Sheet View 5,109.5 12,890.1 21,424.0 30,526.7 30,982.9 28,549.7 24,670.9
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Impact on Financial Statements
37
Add a line item in Balance Sheet of Projected Financials for Deferred Tax Liability “DTL” under the Non-Current Liabilities Section
DTL balance will increase and then unwind- Now the Balance Sheet will no longer balance
To balance the Balance Sheet add a corresponding line item on the Cash Flow statement under Cash Flows from Operations to indicate cash flows from DTL
- These cash flows arise due to fewer taxes paid in the initial years
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Financial Statements – After DTL
38
After incorporating, deferred tax liability and accelerated D&A, the short-fall disappears, but cash balances are still very low
Income Statement(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) Projected Financials
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Total Revenue 82,742 94,488 104,695 141,359 176,227 194,407 214,443EBITDA 46,801 53,959 60,049 85,497 109,698 122,317 136,224EBIT 21,591 24,913 27,162 52,484 76,561 89,054 102,836Net Income 12,667 14,802 16,447 34,887 52,691 63,279 74,976
Balance Sheet Projected Financials(Pak Rupees in MM, except per share amounts) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AssetsCash and Equivalents 12,779 2,995 175 65,687 141,665 229,712 328,158Other Current Assets 36,384 40,346 43,430 56,296 67,702 72,302 77,165
Total Current Assets 49,163 43,341 43,605 121,982 209,366 302,015 405,323
Non Current Assets 385,402 413,298 437,402 405,640 373,753 341,741 309,603Total Assets 434,564 456,639 481,007 527,622 583,119 643,755 714,926
Liabilities and Shareholders' EquityTotal Current Liabilities 5,915 6,670 7,347 9,193 10,948 11,863 12,872Total Debt 25,000 22,000 19,000 16,000 13,000 10,000 7,000Other Non Current Liabilities 12,113 13,659 15,046 18,826 22,421 24,296 26,361
Total Liabilities 43,027 42,328 41,394 44,019 46,369 46,159 46,233
Total Shareholder's Equity 386,428 401,230 417,677 452,564 505,255 568,534 643,510
Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity 434,564 456,639 481,007 527,622 583,119 643,755 714,926
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Table of Contents
39
1. Overview of Advanced Financial Modeling2. Kadmos Modeling Framework3. Thebes Airport: Situation Overview4. Income Statement Projections5. Tax Depreciation and Deferred Tax Liability6. Revolving Credit Agreements and Debt Schedule7. Sale Leasebacks8. Options and Treasury Stock9. Trouble Shooting and Jump Starting Financial Models10. Data Tables11. Utilizing Text Functions12. Building Scenarios
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We have identified that Thebes does not currently have a Revolving Credit Facility (also known as Running Finance) currently
Revolving Credit Facilities allows corporations to draw down and pay off cash amounts depending on liquidity needs
In order to determine the size of facility required we will construct a schedule which maintains a minimum cash balance, draws down on the facility when there is a cash short-fall and makes payments when there is a cash surplus
Thebes management has indicated that the cash balance should never fall below Rs. 5 Mn
Revolving Credit Agreements Overview
40
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1. Specify the minimum cash balance of Rs. 5 Mn on the Control Page
2. Input pricing information for the Revolver Typically Revolvers pay interest on cash amount outstanding and there is usually a
commitment fee component however, we are assuming no commitment fee
3. Revolving Credit Facilities allows corporations to draw down and pay off cash amounts depending on liquidity needs
4. In order to determine the size of facility required we will construct a schedule which maintains a minimum cash balance, draws down on the facility when there is a cash short-fall and makes payments when there is a cash surplus The logic should be such that the facility draws down enough cash to always
maintain a minimum cash balance but the draw down should never exceed facility size
5. Finally, add line items for Revolver in Balance Sheet and Cash Flow, and corresponding Interest Expense in the Income Statement
Modeling of Revolving Credit Agreement
41
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Revolver Schedule Set Up
42
Step 8: Set up the Revolver schedule as shown below
Debt & Interest
Debt Obligations Face Value Term Type Base Rate SpreadSecured Debt 24,000 12 Years Fixed 8.5% N/AUnsecured Debt 10,000 10 Years Floating KIBOR 2.5%Revolver 10,000 Variable Variable KIBOR 3.5%
Projected2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
KIBOR - Historical and Forward Curve 13.0% 12.5% 11.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%Secured Debt - Principal Amount Outstanding 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000Unsecured Debt - Principal Amount Outstanding 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000Revolver - Principal Amount Outstanding Link to Revolver Schedule Below
Secured Debt - Interest Expense 1,530 1,360 1,190 1,020 850 680 510Unsecured Debt - Interest Expense 1,085 900 675 420 315 210 105Revolver - Interest Expense (Existing Balance X (Base Rate + Spread)
Total Interest Expense Sum up Interest Expense
Revolver 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Cash flow avaialable for financing activities Cash flow from Operations + Cash flow from Investing
Proceeds from / (repurchase of) equity Link to Cash Flow StatementDividends Link to Cash Flow Statement(+) Beginning Cash Balance Link to Balance Sheet(-) Minimum Cash Balance Link to Control Page or where Minimum Cash Balance is Specified
Cash Available for Debt Payment Sum up all items above
Long term debt issuance Link to Cash Flow StatementLong term debt (payments) Link to Cash Flow Statement
Cash Available for Revolver Sum Cash Available for Debt Payments and Proceeds from / (Payments of) Debt Obligations
Revolving Credit FacilityBeginning Balance Link to BS Link to Ending Balance BelowDiscretionary (Paydown) / Borrowings =IF(-MIN(I39,I42)+I42<$I$12,-MIN(I39,I42),$I$12-I42)Ending balance Sum Above Items
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Revolver Schedule Set Up
43
Step 9: Complete the schedule and link revolver balances to Balance Sheet
Debt & Interest
Debt Obligations Face Value Term Type Base Rate SpreadSecured Debt 24,000 12 Years Fixed 8.5% N/AUnsecured Debt 10,000 10 Years Floating KIBOR 2.5%
10,000 Variable Variable KIBOR 3.5%
Projected2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
KIBOR - Historical and Forward Curve 13.0% 12.5% 11.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%Secured Debt - Principal Amount Outstanding 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000Unsecured Debt - Principal Amount Outstanding 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000Revolver - Principal Amount Outstanding 0 2,291 5,753 0 0 0 0
Secured Debt - Interest Expense 1,530 1,360 1,190 1,020 850 680 510Unsecured Debt - Interest Expense 1,085 900 675 420 315 210 105Revolver - Interest Expense 0 367 834 0 0 0 0
Total Interest Expense 2,615 2,627 2,699 1,440 1,165 890 615
Revolver 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cash flow available for financing activities (14,191) (7,070) (462) 68,487 78,952 91,022 101,419Proceeds from / (repurchase of) equity 10,000 0 0 0 0 0 0Dividends 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(+) Beginning Cash Balance 19,970 12,779 5,000 5,000 64,734 140,687 228,709(-) Minimum Cash Balance (5,000) (5,000) (5,000) (5,000) (5,000) (5,000) (5,000)
Cash Available for Debt Payment 10,779 709 (462) 68,487 138,687 226,709 325,127
Long term debt issuance (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000)Long term debt (payments) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)
Cash Available for Revolver 7,779 (2,291) (3,462) 65,487 135,687 223,709 322,127
Revolving Credit FacilityBeginning Balance 0 0 2,291 5,753 0 0 0Discretionary (Paydown) / Borrowings 0 2,291 3,462 (5,753) 0 0 0Ending balance 0 2,291 5,753 0 0 0 0
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Revised Financial Statements – After Revolver
44
After incorporating a Revolver, cash short fall gets fully addressed
Income Statement(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) Projected Financials
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Total Revenue 82,742 94,488 104,695 141,359 176,227 194,407 214,443EBITDA 46,801 53,959 60,049 85,497 109,698 122,317 136,224EBIT 21,591 24,913 27,162 52,484 76,561 89,054 102,836Net Income 12,667 14,616 16,031 34,862 52,665 63,253 74,949
Balance Sheet Projected Financials(Pak Rupees in MM, except per share amounts) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AssetsCash and Equivalents 12,779 5,000 5,000 64,734 140,687 228,709 327,127Other Current Assets 36,384 40,346 43,430 56,296 67,702 72,302 77,165
Total Current Assets 49,163 45,346 48,430 121,030 208,389 301,011 404,293
Non Current Assets 385,402 413,298 437,402 405,640 373,753 341,741 309,603Total Assets 434,564 458,643 485,832 526,670 582,142 642,751 713,896
Liabilities and Shareholders' EquityTotal Current Liabilities 5,915 6,670 7,347 9,193 10,948 11,863 12,872Total Debt 25,000 24,291 24,753 16,000 13,000 10,000 7,000Other Non Current Liabilities 12,113 13,659 15,046 18,826 22,421 24,296 26,361
Total Liabilities 43,027 44,619 47,146 44,019 46,369 46,159 46,233
Total Shareholder's Equity 386,428 401,044 417,074 451,936 504,602 567,855 642,804
Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity 434,564 458,643 485,832 526,670 582,142 642,751 713,896
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Revised Financial Statements – After Dividends
45
Can Thebes raise more cash to honor Dividend Policy per agreement with SAS?
Can Thebes afford to pay dividends at 18% of Net Income?Income Statement(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) Projected Financials
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Total Revenue 82,742 94,488 104,695 141,359 176,227 194,407 214,443EBITDA 46,801 53,959 60,049 85,497 109,698 122,317 136,224EBIT 21,591 24,913 27,162 52,484 76,561 89,054 102,836Net Income 12,606 14,015 15,497 34,446 51,988 62,259 73,575
Balance Sheet Projected Financials(Pak Rupees in MM, except per share amounts) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AssetsCash and Equivalents 10,449 5,000 (140) 48,730 114,648 190,469 274,270Other Current Assets 36,384 40,346 43,430 56,296 67,702 72,302 77,165
Total Current Assets 46,833 45,346 43,290 105,026 182,350 262,771 351,435
Non Current Assets 385,402 413,298 437,402 405,640 373,753 341,741 309,603Total Assets 432,235 458,643 480,692 510,666 556,103 604,511 661,038
Liabilities and Shareholders' EquityTotal Current Liabilities 5,915 6,670 7,347 9,193 10,948 11,863 12,872Total Debt 25,000 30,068 29,000 16,000 13,000 10,000 7,000Other Non Current Liabilities 12,113 13,659 15,046 18,826 22,421 24,296 26,361
Total Liabilities 43,027 50,396 51,394 44,019 46,369 46,159 46,233
Total Shareholder's Equity 384,098 395,591 408,298 436,543 479,174 530,226 590,558
Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity 432,235 458,643 480,692 510,666 556,103 604,511 661,038
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Table of Contents
46
1. Overview of Advanced Financial Modeling2. Kadmos Modeling Framework3. Thebes Airport: Situation Overview4. Income Statement Projections5. Tax Depreciation and Deferred Tax Liability6. Revolving Credit Agreements and Debt Schedule7. Sale Leasebacks8. Options and Treasury Stock9. Trouble Shooting and Jump Starting Financial Models10. Data Tables11. Utilizing Text Functions12. Building Scenarios
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Sale lease back is a common liquidity initiative taken up by management teams when near term liquidity becomes a potential threat
The transaction involves selling an existing owned asset for cash and leasing it back
- Commonly used by airlines To record a sale lease back transaction
- Cash increases as a result of sale which is recorded in Cash Flow Statement- Asset’s acquisition cost and accumulated depreciation are removed from BS- A gain or loss is recorded on the Income Statement- Rental expense increases on Income Statement- Security deposits increase on Balance Sheet
Sale Lease Back Overview
47
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1.Determine the PP&E break-down of asset to be sold and leased back: Acquisition cost and accumulated depreciation
2.Calculate Gain / (Loss) as a result of Sale Leaseback (Selling Price – Net Book Value)
3.Model out the Rental Agreement which should compute rental expense and a security deposit resulting from a Sale leaseback
4.Modify the logic in the Cap Ex and D&A schedule for PP&E balance and accumulated D&A in a manner such that PP&E balances are automatically reduced when a Sale leaseback happens
5.Modify the logic in existing D&A expense to ensure that sold assets are no longer depreciated
6.Add a row for Gain / (Loss) in both Income Statement and Cash Flow statement to account for non-cash gain / (loss) resulting from SLB transaction
7.Add a row in Cash Flow Statement to show cash inflow due to asset sales8.Add a row in Income Statement for rental expense9.Add a row for Security Deposit on Balance Sheet along with corresponding row
on cash flow statement to indicate a cash out-flow
Modeling of Sale Lease-back
48
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Thebes Management decides to sell and lease-back its Ground Handling Equipment, we have been asked to model this situation
First step is to identify the PP&E breakdown, for this management has provided the following guidance
- As of December 31 2008, approx. 25% of PP&E was Ground Handling Equipment with Accum. D&A spread proportionally across asset classes
Set up the Sale Lease Back Schedule on the same tab as the Cap Ex and D&A Schedule and determine PP&E break-down
- This can be prepared on a separate tab as well
Sale Lease Back Schedule
49
Step 10: Determine PP&E break-down and prepare SLB schedule
Sale Lease Back Schedule
PP&E Breakdown Projected Financials2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PP&E BreakdownGround Handling Equipment - Book Value 135,200 135,200 135,200 135,200 135,200 135,200 135,200Other PP&E - Book Value 405,600 405,600 405,600 405,600 405,600 405,600 405,600PP&E Related to Int'l Terminal - BV 54,752 110,494 166,236 166,236 166,236 166,236 166,236Total Book Value 595,552.0 651,294.1 707,036.2 707,036.2 707,036.2 707,036.2 707,036.2
Ground Handling Equipment - Accum. D&A (57,858) (62,365) (66,872) (71,378) (75,885) (80,392) (84,898)Other PP&E - Accum. D&A (173,575) (187,095) (200,615) (214,135) (227,655) (241,175) (254,695)PP&E Related to Int'l Terminal - Accum. D&A (3,650) (11,016) (22,099) (33,181) (44,264) (55,346) (66,428)Total Accum. D&A (235,083) (260,476) (289,585) (318,694) (347,803) (376,912) (406,021)
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Sale Lease Back Schedule
50
Sale Lease Back Schedule
PP&E Breakdown Historical Financials Projected Financials2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PP&E BreakdownGround Handling Equipment - Book Value 125,000 130,000 135,200 135,200 135,200 135,200 135,200 135,200 135,200 135,200Other PP&E - Book Value 375,000 390,000 405,600 405,600 405,600 405,600 405,600 405,600 405,600 405,600PP&E Related to Int'l Terminal - BV 54,752 110,494 166,236 166,236 166,236 166,236 166,236Total Book Value 595,552.0 651,294.1 707,036.2 707,036.2 707,036.2 707,036.2 707,036.2
Ground Handling Equipment - Accum. D&A (41,914) (47,514) (53,352) (57,858) (62,365) (66,872) (71,378) (75,885) (80,392) (84,898)Other PP&E - Accum. D&A (125,741) (142,541) (160,055) (173,575) (187,095) (200,615) (214,135) (227,655) (241,175) (254,695)PP&E Related to Int'l Terminal - Accum. D&A (3,650) (11,016) (22,099) (33,181) (44,264) (55,346) (66,428)Total Accum. D&A (235,083) (260,476) (289,585) (318,694) (347,803) (376,912) (406,021)
Gain / Loss CalculationsSelling Price of Ground Handling Equipment 35,000.0NBV of Ground Handling Equipment 83,087 82,487 81,849 77,342 72,835 68,329 63,822 59,315 54,809 50,302Gain / (Loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (37,835.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rental AgreementLease Factor 0.085xLease Expense 0 2975 2975 2975 2975 2975 2975Security Deposit 3.0x 0 8925 8925 8925 8925 8925 8925
Lease expense is modeled in a manner which should automatically update depending on sale year
- The logic used to calculate Lease Expense combines IF, OR and MAX functions- Using the IF function alone does not result in desired flow
Logic on the Cap Ex and D&A schedule has to be modified accordingly- PP&E balances should reduce depending on SLB year, a gain or loss should be
recorded and rental expense should get incorporated
Step 11: Set up Gain / (Loss) Calculations and Rental Agreement
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Revised Financial Statements – After SLB
51
After incorporating a SLB in 2011, Thebes is no longer faced with a liquidity crisis and has now asked us to model share buy-backs and options
Income Statement(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) Projected Financials
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Total Revenue 82,742 94,488 104,695 141,359 176,227 194,407 214,443EBITDA 46,801 53,959 59,487 84,935 109,136 121,755 135,661EBIT 21,591 24,913 31,106 56,429 80,505 92,999 106,781Net Income 12,606 14,015 (3,238) 37,822 55,360 65,626 76,938
Balance Sheet Projected Financials(Pak Rupees in MM, except per share amounts) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AssetsCash and Equivalents 10,449 5,000 21,240 79,954 145,712 221,370 305,004Other Current Assets 36,384 40,346 52,447 65,308 76,709 81,305 86,163
Total Current Assets 46,833 45,346 73,687 145,262 222,421 302,674 391,167
Non Current Assets 385,402 413,298 373,581 346,325 318,944 291,439 263,808Total Assets 432,235 458,643 447,267 491,587 541,366 594,113 654,975
Liabilities and Shareholders' EquityTotal Current Liabilities 5,915 6,670 7,440 9,285 11,041 11,956 12,965Total Debt 25,000 30,068 19,000 16,000 13,000 10,000 7,000Other Non Current Liabilities 12,113 13,659 15,236 19,016 22,611 24,485 26,551
Total Liabilities 43,027 50,396 41,675 44,301 46,651 46,441 46,515
Total Shareholder's Equity 384,098 395,591 392,936 423,949 469,344 523,158 586,247
Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity 432,235 458,643 447,267 491,587 541,366 594,113 654,975
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Table of Contents
52
1. Overview of Advanced Financial Modeling2. Kadmos Modeling Framework3. Thebes Airport: Situation Overview4. Income Statement Projections5. Tax Depreciation and Deferred Tax Liability6. Revolving Credit Agreements and Debt Schedule7. Sale Leasebacks8. Options and Treasury Stock9. Trouble Shooting and Jump Starting Financial Models10. Data Tables11. Utilizing Text Functions12. Building Scenarios
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Options and Treasury Stock Overview
53
After incorporating all liquidity initiatives, Thebes management is observing surplus cash in outer years and has therefore asked us to model in Treasury Stock and Options assumptions
Treasury stock represents shares re-purchased by the company from an open market and can be accounted as a negative account on the Balance Sheet
- Alternatively, the shares outstanding can also be reduced instead to account for the same effect
An option is a right but not the obligation to purchase a security- Thebes has issued stock options which has a strike price of Rs. 3
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Modeling of Options and Treasury Stock
54
1.In the Shareholders’ Equity schedule set up share re-purchase and Option exercise schedules
2.To compute cash flows related to share re-purchases, calculate projected EPS based on current number of shares outstanding
3.Assume a price / earnings multiple and calculate projected share price
4.Assume total number of common shares to be re-purchased and multiply the result by projected share price
5.To calculate new shares from options exercised and related proceeds input average strike price
6.Using IF logic compute cash flows from option exercise along with increase in common shares outstanding for in the money options
7.IMPORTANT: Modify Revolving Credit Facility schedule to account for new cash flows
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Modified Shareholders’ Equity Schedule
55
Step 12: Modify Shareholders’ Equity schedule by adding share re-purchase and options assumptions
Shareholders' Equity Schedule
Projected Financials2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Beginning Equity Balance 361,748 382,085 393,578 390,923 421,936 467,332 521,145Net Income 12,606 14,015 (3,238) 37,822 55,360 65,626 76,938Additional shares issued to investor at par 3,571 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Additional paid in capital by investor 6,429Dividends Paid (2,269.1) (2,522.8) 582.8 (6,807.9) (9,964.8) (11,812.8) (13,848.8)
Ending Equity Balance 382,085 393,578 390,923 421,936 467,332 521,145 584,234
Dividend AssumptionsTotal Dividends Paid 2,269.1 2,522.8 (582.8) 6,807.9 9,964.8 11,812.8 13,848.8Net Income 12,606 14,015 (3,238) 37,822 55,360 65,626 76,938Divident Payout Ratio 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
Share Re-Purchase AssumptionsCurrent Year EPS (Excluding Gains on Sale) Net Income (excl gains on sale) / Shares OutstandingPrice / Earnings Multiple Assume a multiple of 25xProjected Share Price P / E Multipe X EPSShares Repurchased Assumption BasedRs. Amount Repurchased Projected share price X Shares Repurchased
New Shares from Exercised OptionsNumber of Shares Backed by Options (contracts issued which will vest yoy) Assumption BasedNew Shares From Exercised Options =IF(K27>K34,K32,0)Average Strike Price Assume Rs. 3Option Proceeds New Shares * Avg Strike Price
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Modified Shareholders’ Equity Schedule
56
Step 13: Complete the Shareholders’ Equity Schedule
After Step 12, incorporate Options and Treasury Stock cash flows in the revolver schedule
Shareholder's Equity Schedule
Projected Financials2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Beginning Equity Balance 361,748 382,085 393,578 390,923 421,936 467,332 521,145Net Income 12,606 14,015 (3,238) 37,822 55,360 65,626 76,938Additional shares issued to investor at par 3,571 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Additional paid in capital by investor 6,429Dividends Paid (2,269.1) (2,522.8) 582.8 (6,807.9) (9,964.8) (11,812.8) (13,848.8)
Ending Equity Balance 382,085 393,578 390,923 421,936 467,332 521,145 584,234
Dividend AssumptionsTotal Dividends Paid 2,269.1 2,522.8 (582.8) 6,807.9 9,964.8 11,812.8 13,848.8Net Income 12,606 14,015 (3,238) 37,822 55,360 65,626 76,938Divident Payout Ratio 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
Share Re-Purchase AssumptionsCurrent Year EPS (Excluding Gains on Sale) 0.12 0.13 0.19 0.36 0.53 0.63 0.74Price / Earnings Multiple 25.0x 25.0x 25.0x 25.0x 25.0x 25.0x 25.0xProjected Share Price Rs. 3.0 Rs. 3.4 Rs. 4.7 Rs. 9.1 Rs. 13.3 Rs. 15.7 Rs. 18.5Shares Repurchased 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000Rs. Amount Repurchased 0.0 0.0 4,693.9 9,076.7 13,285.6 15,749.5 18,464.1
New Shares from Exercised OptionsNumber of Shares Backed by Options (contracts issued which will vest yoy) 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000New Shares From Exercised Options 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000Average Strike Price Rs. 3.0 Rs. 3.0 Rs. 3.0 Rs. 3.0 Rs. 3.0Option Proceeds Rs. 3,000 Rs. 3,000 Rs. 3,000 Rs. 3,000 Rs. 3,000
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Summary Financial Statements
57
Income Statement(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) Projected Financials
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Total Revenue 82,742 94,488 104,695 141,359 176,227 194,407 214,443EBITDA 46,801 53,959 59,487 84,935 109,136 121,755 135,661EBIT 21,591 24,913 31,106 56,429 80,505 92,999 106,781Net Income 12,606 14,015 (3,307) 37,615 54,879 64,802 75,692
Balance Sheet Projected Financials(Pak Rupees in MM, except per share amounts) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AssetsCash and Equivalents 10,449 5,000 19,500 72,018 127,211 189,640 257,088Other Current Assets 36,384 40,346 52,447 65,308 76,709 81,305 86,163
Total Current Assets 46,833 45,346 71,947 137,325 203,920 270,945 343,251
Non Current Assets 385,402 413,298 373,581 346,325 318,944 291,439 263,808Total Assets 432,235 458,643 445,527 483,650 522,865 562,384 607,059
Liabilities and Shareholders' EquityTotal Current Liabilities 5,915 6,670 7,440 9,285 11,041 11,956 12,965Total Debt 25,000 30,068 19,000 16,000 13,000 10,000 7,000Other Non Current Liabilities 12,113 13,659 15,236 19,016 22,611 24,485 26,551
Total Liabilities 43,027 50,396 41,675 44,301 46,651 46,441 46,515
Total Shareholder's Equity 384,098 395,591 391,196 416,013 450,843 491,429 538,331
Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity 432,235 458,643 445,527 483,650 522,865 562,384 607,059
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Table of Contents
58
1. Overview of Advanced Financial Modeling2. Kadmos Modeling Framework3. Thebes Airport: Situation Overview4. Income Statement Projections5. Tax Depreciation and Deferred Tax Liability6. Revolving Credit Agreements and Debt Schedule7. Sale Lease Backs8. Options and Treasury Stock9. Trouble Shooting and Jump Starting Financial Models10. Data Tables11. Utilizing Text Functions12. Building Scenarios
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Dealing With Circular Models
59
Income Statement(Pak Rupees in 000s, except per share amounts) Projected Financials
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Total Revenue 82,742 94,488 104,695 141,359 176,227 194,407 214,443EBITDA 46,801 53,959 59,487 84,935 109,136 121,755 135,661EBIT 21,591 24,913 31,106 56,429 80,505 92,999 106,781Net Income #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Balance Sheet Projected Financials(Pak Rupees in MM, except per share amounts) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AssetsCash and Equivalents #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!Other Current Assets 36,384 40,346 52,447 65,308 76,709 81,305 86,163
Total Current Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Non Current Assets 385,402 413,298 373,581 346,325 318,944 291,439 263,808Total Assets #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Liabilities and Shareholders' EquityTotal Current Liabilities 5,915 6,670 7,440 9,285 11,041 11,956 12,965Total Debt #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!Other Non Current Liabilities 12,113 13,659 15,236 19,016 22,611 24,485 26,551
Total Liabilities #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Total Shareholder's Equity #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Embedded errors “Blow Up” Models- #VALUE: a cell reference to a letter rather than a number- #RED: a reference to a cell that no longer exists- #DIV: an equation divided by zero or blank cell- #NAME: a reference to a name that does not exist
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Understanding Circularity
Net Income
Revolver Balance& Cash Balance
Interest Expense& Interest Income
Free Cash Flow
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Calculating a Circular Model
61
Excel cannot automatically calculate when a model contains a circular reference
Solution: turn iterations ON- Tools, Options (Alt T O); Calculation tab
Iterations create “embedded errors”- Potentially destructive problem
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How to Jump Start a Model
62
1. Copy interest expense / income formulas on the Income Statement
2. Paste the formulas off to the right, beyond the last column
3. Delete the original interest expense / income formulas
Hard Code zeros, and break the Circ
4.Copy interest expense / income formulas back into the Income Statement
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Breaking the CIRC via Jump Start
63
Most common method for fixing a model
Effective when source of error is known
Concept:- Stop the error from flowing though the Income Statement
NI
CFBS
IS
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Breaking the CIRC via “CIRC Buster”
64
A more sophisticated approach- Excellent for finding your error(s)- Solves the problem of embedded errors- USES IF statement logic* to turn circularity on and off
Concept:- Stop the error from flowing through the Income Statement and the Cash Flow
Statement
NI
CFBS
IS
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How the “CIRC Buster” Works
65
An “ON” / “OFF” switch that automates jumpstarting the model
With the switch “OFF”, zeros are placed in the Income Statement
- Interest Income row is made zero
- Interest Expense row is made zero
The formula written is an IF statement which picks up a 0 when CIRC
Breaker is OFF, and picks up a link or formula when CIRC Breaker is ON
- =IF('Control Page'!$I$10="ON",-'Debt and Interest'!I25,0)
Circular ReferenceON
Switch Circ OFF and then back ON if model blows up and errors appear
Step 14: Incorporate a circ breaker
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What is a Balanced Model
66
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow harmony- Reconcile the change in each Balance Sheet line item with flows of funds on the
Cash Flow
Ending Balance on Balance Sheet
Year 0
Ending Balance on Balance Sheet
Year 1
Cash Flow Year 1==
Financial Statements
Balance Sheet Cash Flow2002 2003 Difference 2003
Cash 28,642.0 25,000.0 (3,642.0) (3,642.0)Accounts Receivable, net 472,979.0 505,707.0 (32,728.0) (32,728.0)Inventory 383,753.0 411,429.0 (27,676.0) (27,676.0)Other Current Assets 83,488.0 92,291.0 (8,803.0) (8,803.0)
PP&E, net 965,594.0 1,017,763.0 (52,169.0) (52,169.0)Goodwill 424,312.0 454,346.0 (30,034.0) (30,034.0)Deferred Income Taxes 120,273.0 120,273.0 0.0 0.0Other Long-Term Assets 108,622.0 108,622.0 0.0 0.0
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A Few Balancing Pointers
67
Quick sanity check on BS and CF- Wrong signs: CapEx on Cash Flow statement, etc.- Unreasonable changes on Balance Sheet
Divide error by two- Usually a sign error
Print your model and do a “Pen, paper and calculator” check - Check by hand- Only spend 2-3 minutes hunting the screen
Correctly linked to/ from other schedules?
Check total formulas and other calculations
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Total Liabilities 1,686.0 1,724.6 1,906.0 1,890.9 1,860.6 1,836.0 1,816.6 1,803.3
Total Equity 644.0 789.5 681.6 844.5 1,020.1 1,208.6 1,410.5 1,625.6
Total Liabilites and Equity 2,330.0 2,514.1 2,587.6 2,735.4 2,880.7 3,044.6 3,227.1 3,428.9check 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00
Dealing with Negative Zeros
68
When Parity check has “phantom brackets”
Solution: = IF(ABS(H18-H33),0.001,0,H18-H33)
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Table of Contents
69
1. Overview of Advanced Financial Modeling2. Kadmos Modeling Framework3. Thebes Airport: Situation Overview4. Income Statement Projections5. Tax Depreciation and Deferred Tax Liability6. Revolving Credit Agreements and Debt Schedule7. Sale Lease Backs8. Options and Treasury Stock9. Trouble Shooting and Jump Starting Financial Models10. Data Tables11. Utilizing Text Functions12. Building Scenarios
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Data Tables and Sensitivity Analysis
70
Pick an output that you want to analyze Select one or two variables that you want to change to analyze the impact on
your output data TIP: Data Table must be on the SAME sheet as the input cells / formula that
drive the model
Control PageAircraft Specifications # of Seats LF Assump. MTOW (Tons) CIRC Breaker Revenue Driver Inflation Assumptions
B-737-300 118 0.5% Annually 61 ON Operating Revenue: Assumption: Rate:A-320 140 0.8% Annually 73 Switch CIRC OFF and then back Landing Charges / Ton Annually - Fixed 7%A310 184 0.0% Annually 160 ON if model blows up Handling Charges / AC Movement Annually - Fixed 9%B747 398 -0.3% Annually 350 Emarkation Fees / Passenger Annually - Fixed 9%
Aircraft Traffic Forecast 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Aircraft Movements
B-737-300 154 160 176 179 188 200 230 250 260 270A-320 130 156 160 164 174 180 213 255 255 255A310 65 80 94 100 105 105 156 186 186 186B747 45 40 37 35 35 30 35 35 35 35
Key Financials Historical Financials Projected Financials2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revenue 57,932.6 66,997.7 74,713.1 82,742.0 94,488.0 104,694.8 141,358.5 176,226.6 194,406.6 214,442.7EBITDA 30,442 37,470 43,028 46,801 53,959 59,487 84,935 109,136 121,755 135,661Net Income 4,414 8,400 11,437 12,606 14,015 (3,307) 37,615 54,879 64,802 75,692Cash and Equivalents 10,430 14,028 19,970 10,449 5,000 19,500 72,018 127,211 189,640 257,088
Minimum Cash Balance 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
Investment Amount offered by SAS Capital 10,000 Exit EBITDA Multiple 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3Offer price / share Rs. 2.8 Sponsor's Ownership a % 3.4%Current Stock Price Rs. 2.6Premium Paid by SAS Capital Partners 7.7% IRR Initial Inv 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012
12.9% (10,000.0) 11,292.014.4% (10,000.0) 77.8 13,008.214.7% (10,000.0) 77.8 86.5 14,884.624.0% (10,000.0) 77.8 86.5 (20.4) 23,409.4
Additional Shares Issued 3,571 26.3% (10,000.0) 77.8 86.5 (20.4) 232.1 31,568.0Current Shares Outstanding 100,601 25.0% (10,000.0) 77.8 86.5 (20.4) 232.1 338.7 37,030.5Common shares outstanding post investment 104,172 23.9% (10,000.0) 77.8 86.5 (20.4) 232.1 338.7 399.9 42,993.3
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Data Tables and Sensitivity Analysis
71
Enter Range for Input Variable- For a two-way data table, the vertical range is started below the column of the
reference cell and the horizontal range is started one cell to the right of the column of the reference cell
Note: Input range CANNOT be links to or from the model inputs To populate data table, select the entire table shown above and under the Data
menu, chose Table (Alt D T for Excel 2003)- Chose the row input - Chose the column input- Hit OK
IRR Sensitivity TableLanding Charges / Ton
26.2% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0%Rs. 2.0Rs. 2.2Rs. 2.4Rs. 2.6
Purchase Rs. 2.8Price per Rs. 3.0Share Rs. 3.2
Rs. 3.4Rs. 3.6
Reference Cell
Vertical Inputs: Purchase Price / Share
Horizontal Inputs: Purchase Price / Share
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Data Table Example
72
Set up a Data Table which shows IRRs for a 2012 exit and sensitizes Landing Fees / Ton growth rate against share purchase price
- For a two-way data table, the vertical range is started below the column of the reference cell and the horizontal range is started one cell to the right of the column of the reference cell
Step 15: Prepare a data table
IRR Sensitivity TableLanding Charges / Ton: (Model Currently Assumed 7.0% Inflation)
24.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%Rs. 2.0 29.7% 29.8% 29.8% 29.9% 30.0% 30.1% 30.3%Rs. 2.2 27.9% 28.0% 28.1% 28.2% 28.3% 28.4% 28.5%Rs. 2.4 26.4% 26.5% 26.6% 26.7% 26.8% 26.9% 27.0%Rs. 2.6 25.0% 25.1% 25.1% 25.2% 25.3% 25.4% 25.5%
Purchase Rs. 2.8 23.7% 23.7% 23.8% 23.9% 24.0% 24.1% 24.2%Price per Rs. 3.0 22.5% 22.5% 22.6% 22.7% 22.8% 22.9% 23.0%Share Rs. 3.2 21.4% 21.4% 21.5% 21.6% 21.7% 21.8% 21.9%
Rs. 3.4 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.6% 20.7% 20.8% 20.9%Rs. 3.6 19.3% 19.4% 19.5% 19.6% 19.7% 19.8% 19.9%
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Common Errors with Data Tables
73
1.Flipping row and column input cell in dialog box
2. Not linking referenced output cell
3. Input variable cell is linked to model
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Common Uses of Data Tables
74
1. Sensitivity to an operating statistic variable
Revenue growth rate, gross margin etc
2. Accretion / (Dilution) analysis in M&A deals
Offer price per share versus synergies
3. Credit statistics to various capital structures
Debt / EBITDA to different debt levels
4. DCF Valuation sensitivity
Discount rate, Terminal multiple
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Table of Contents
75
1. Overview of Advanced Financial Modeling2. Kadmos Modeling Framework3. Thebes Airport: Situation Overview4. Income Statement Projections5. Tax Depreciation and Deferred Tax Liability6. Revolving Credit Agreements and Debt Schedule7. Sale Lease Backs8. Options and Treasury Stock9. Trouble Shooting and Jump Starting Financial Models10. Data Tables11. Utilizing Text Functions12. Building Scenarios
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Uses of TEXT Functions
76
Place numeric value into a phrase or sentenceThebes AirportIllustrative Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Projected Fiscal Year Ended December 31,2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CAGR
EBIT 21,591.4 24,913.1 31,106.2 56,429.0 80,505.5 92,999.0 106,780.8Less: Taxes @ 35.0% (7,557.0) (8,719.6) (10,887.2) (19,750.2) (28,176.9) (32,549.7)Tax-effected EBITDA 14,034.4 16,193.5 20,219.0 36,678.9 52,328.6 60,449.4
Plus: D&A 25,210.0 29,046.1 28,380.6 28,505.6 28,630.6 28,755.6Less: Capital Expenditures (54,752.0) (55,742.1) (55,742.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0Less: Changes in Working Capital (3,816.0) (3,206.5) (11,331.0) (11,015.2) (9,646.4) (3,680.3)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow ($19,323.6) ($13,708.9) ($18,473.4) $54,169.3 $71,312.7 $85,524.6Unlevered Free Cash Flow Growth Rate -29.1% 34.8% -393.2% 31.6% 19.9%
A + B = CDiscounted (a) PV of Terminal Value as a
Cash Flows Multiple of 2014 EBITDA (a) Firm ValueDiscount Rate (2010-2014) 6.0x 6.5x 7.0x 6.0x 6.5x 7.0x
20.0% 75,856.3 224,245.4 242,932.5 261,619.6 300,101.7 318,788.8 337,475.922.0% 70,017.5 206,457.4 223,662.2 240,867.0 276,475.0 293,679.7 310,884.524.0% 64,677.6 190,336.1 206,197.5 222,058.8 255,013.7 270,875.1 286,736.4
- D = E ENet Debt Total Equity Value Price / Share
Discount Rate 12/31/09 P 6.0x 6.5x 7.0x 6.0x 6.5x 7.0x
20.0% 14,551.1 285,550.6 304,237.7 322,924.8 2.7 2.9 3.122.0% 14,551.1 261,923.9 279,128.7 296,333.4 2.5 2.7 2.824.0% 14,551.1 240,462.6 256,324.0 272,185.3 2.3 2.5 2.6
(a) Present values calculated as of 12/31/09 P.
"(b) Discounted 5 years; based on projected 2012 EBITDA
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Table of Contents
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1. Overview of Advanced Financial Modeling2. Kadmos Modeling Framework3. Thebes Airport: Situation Overview4. Income Statement Projections5. Tax Depreciation and Deferred Tax Liability6. Revolving Credit Agreements and Debt Schedule7. Sale Lease Backs8. Options and Treasury Stock9. Trouble Shooting and Jump Starting Financial Models10. Data Tables11. Utilizing Text Functions12. Building Scenarios
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Scenario Tab
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Typically deal makers identify a base case, an upside case and a downside case
It is desirable to lay out inputs or assumptions of three distinct scenarios on a different tab and link them to the Control Page using embedded IF statements
On the Control Page utilize the List function under Data and Validation
Link Control Page inputs to Scenario Tab
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Revised Control Page
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Control Page
Aircraft Specifications # of Seats LF Assump. MTOW (Tons) CIRC Breaker Scenario Revenue Driver Inflation AssumptionsB-737-300 118 0.5% Annually 61 ON Base Operating Revenue: Assumption: Rate:A-320 140 0.8% Annually 73 Switch CIRC OFF and then back Landing Charges / Ton Annually - Fixed 7%A310 184 0.0% Annually 160 ON if model blows up Handling Charges / AC Movement Annually - Fixed 9%B747 398 -0.3% Annually 350 Emarkation Fees / Passenger Annually - Fixed 9%
Aircraft Traffic Forecast 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Aircraft Movements
B-737-300 154 160 176 179 188 200 230 250 260 270A-320 130 156 160 164 174 180 213 255 255 255A310 65 80 94 100 105 105 156 186 186 186B747 45 40 37 35 35 30 35 35 35 35
Key Financials Historical Financials Projected Financials2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revenue 57,932.6 66,997.7 74,713.1 82,742.0 94,488.0 104,694.8 141,358.5 176,226.6 194,406.6 214,442.7EBITDA 30,442 37,470 43,028 46,801 53,959 59,487 84,935 109,136 121,755 135,661Net Income 4,414 8,400 11,437 12,606 14,015 (3,307) 37,615 54,879 64,802 75,692Cash and Equivalents 10,430 14,028 19,970 10,449 5,000 19,500 72,018 127,211 189,640 257,088
Minimum Cash Balance 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
Investment Amount offered by SAS Capital 10,000 Exit EBITDA Multiple 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3Offer price / share Rs. 2.8 Sponsor's Ownership a % 3.4%Current Stock Price Rs. 2.6Premium Paid by SAS Capital Partners 7.7% IRR Initial Inv 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012
12.9% (10,000.0) 11,292.014.4% (10,000.0) 77.8 13,008.214.7% (10,000.0) 77.8 86.5 14,884.624.0% (10,000.0) 77.8 86.5 (20.4) 23,409.4
Additional Shares Issued 3,571 26.3% (10,000.0) 77.8 86.5 (20.4) 232.1 31,568.0Current Shares Outstanding 100,601 25.0% (10,000.0) 77.8 86.5 (20.4) 232.1 338.7 37,030.5Common shares outstanding post investment 104,172 23.9% (10,000.0) 77.8 86.5 (20.4) 232.1 338.7 399.9 42,993.3
IRR Sensitivity TableLanding Charges / Ton
23.9% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0%Rs. 2.0 29.7% 29.8% 29.9% 30.0% 30.1% 30.3% 30.4%Rs. 2.2 28.0% 28.1% 28.2% 28.3% 28.4% 28.5% 28.7%Rs. 2.4 26.5% 26.6% 26.7% 26.8% 26.9% 27.0% 27.1%Rs. 2.6 25.1% 25.1% 25.2% 25.3% 25.5% 25.6% 25.7%
Purchase Rs. 2.8 23.8% 23.8% 23.9% 24.0% 24.2% 24.3% 24.4%Price per Rs. 3.0 22.6% 22.7% 22.7% 22.8% 23.0% 23.1% 23.2%Share Rs. 3.2 21.4% 21.5% 21.6% 21.7% 21.8% 21.9% 22.1%
Rs. 3.4 20.4% 20.5% 20.6% 20.7% 20.8% 20.9% 21.0%Rs. 3.6 19.4% 19.5% 19.6% 19.7% 19.8% 19.9% 20.0%