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Financial Projections for 2006-2007

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Financial Projections Financial Projections for 2006-2007 for 2006-2007 Northport-East Northport School District December, 2005 December, 2005
Transcript
Page 1: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

Financial ProjectionsFinancial Projectionsfor 2006-2007for 2006-2007

Northport-East Northport School District

December, 2005December, 2005

Page 2: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

The Many Meetings for Public The Many Meetings for Public Input and Review from Now Input and Review from Now

through Maythrough MayMon Mon Dec 19Dec 19 Sup’t presents Financial Projections for 2006-2007.Sup’t presents Financial Projections for 2006-2007.MonMon Jan 9Jan 9 Board provides budget direction to the Board provides budget direction to the

Superintendent.Superintendent.MonMon Mar 6Mar 6 Sup’t presents the Proposed Budget for 2006-2007,Sup’t presents the Proposed Budget for 2006-2007,

within the Board’s Jan 9 guidelines.within the Board’s Jan 9 guidelines.MonMon Mar 20Mar 20 The Board reviews the Proposed Budget.The Board reviews the Proposed Budget.MonMon Mar 27Mar 27 The Board reviews the Proposed Budget.The Board reviews the Proposed Budget.MonMon Apr 3Apr 3 The Board conducts a Preliminary Public Hearing onThe Board conducts a Preliminary Public Hearing on

the Proposed Budget.the Proposed Budget.MonMon Apr 17Apr 17 The Board reviews the public comment from theThe Board reviews the public comment from the

hearing on the Proposed Budget and finalizes thehearing on the Proposed Budget and finalizes thebudget that will be put up for a vote.budget that will be put up for a vote.

MonMon May 8May 8 The Board conducts a Public Hearing on the The Board conducts a Public Hearing on the finalizedfinalized

Proposed Budget.Proposed Budget.TueTue May 16May 16 Annual Budget Vote and Election of Trustees.Annual Budget Vote and Election of Trustees.

Page 3: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS, FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS, NOTNOT PROPOSED BUDGET PROPOSED BUDGET

• The state aid situation could change.• General economic conditions could change.• Staffing projections may change due to

refinements.• The assessed value could change.

Given the constraints of projecting the 2006-2007 costs at this very early date, the Superintendent believes that the data included within this document are as accurate as possible and adequate for the purpose of preliminary planning.

Page 4: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PROJECTIONSPROJECTIONS

• Work started in OctoberWork started in October• The Superintendent directed staff to The Superintendent directed staff to

develop initial budget projections to meet develop initial budget projections to meet these objectives:these objectives:– Meet all federal, state, and local Meet all federal, state, and local

requirements.requirements.– Continue current educational program.Continue current educational program.– Continue current level of support Continue current level of support

services.services.

Page 5: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

KEY ASSUMPTIONS KEY ASSUMPTIONS • Educational Program. The same as this year. • Enrollment. Used BOCES enrollment projections, which

estimate growth next year from 6,521 pupils to 6,605 pupils, an increase of 84 pupils, or 1.3%. (The enrollment projections are presented in Appendix F.)

• Facilities. Projections based on continuing to operate nine K-12 school buildings, plus the Laurel Avenue School for pre-k special education, child care, community service, central office and other district programs, as well as rental space.

• Inflation. Used current figures from the BLS, which indicate inflation running in the area of 4.5% in the NY area.

• Staffing Guidelines. The assumption was made that the guidelines for teacher staffing will be the same in 2006-2007 as those used in 2005-2006.

Page 6: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

STAFFING LEVELSSTAFFING LEVELS

• Staffing LevelsStaffing Levels– Teaching Staff.Teaching Staff. There will be an estimated There will be an estimated

increase of 5.0 teaching positions K-12, or increase of 5.0 teaching positions K-12, or about 0.8% to accommodate the 1.3% growth about 0.8% to accommodate the 1.3% growth in enrollment. The financial projections also in enrollment. The financial projections also include funding for 2.0 include funding for 2.0 contingency/unallocated teaching positions to contingency/unallocated teaching positions to be used in the event of unanticipated be used in the event of unanticipated enrollment growth.enrollment growth.

Page 7: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED EXPENSESPROJECTED EXPENSES

• Staffing Levels, continuedStaffing Levels, continued

– Support staff.Support staff. No change is anticipated. No change is anticipated. However, NCLB and SED requirements may However, NCLB and SED requirements may cause some teacher aide positions to be cause some teacher aide positions to be eliminated and replaced with teaching eliminated and replaced with teaching assistant positions.assistant positions.

– Administrative staff.Administrative staff. No change is projected. No change is projected. Over the past 15 years, have experienced a Over the past 15 years, have experienced a 35% reduction in service.35% reduction in service.

Page 8: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

ADMINISTRATIVE STAFFADMINISTRATIVE STAFF

# # StudentsStudents

# # AdministratorsAdministrators Students Per AdminStudents Per Admin

1990-1990-9191

52055205 3939 133133

2005-2005-0606

66056605 3232 205205

ChangChangee

UP 27%UP 27% DOWN 18%DOWN 18% The ratio of students to The ratio of students to administrators has administrators has increased 54%.increased 54%.

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990-91 2006-07

Students per AdministratorStudents per Administrator

Page 9: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED EXPENSESPROJECTED EXPENSES

A.A. Personnel – SalariesPersonnel – Salaries

1. 1. Continuing contracts.Continuing contracts. The members of the The members of the administrative bargaining unit are scheduled to administrative bargaining unit are scheduled to

receive a 3.9% increase, and the members receive a 3.9% increase, and the members of the of the clerical unit are scheduled to receive clerical unit are scheduled to receive an increase of an increase of 3.75% + $600. Funds for 3.75% + $600. Funds for these increases have these increases have been included in been included in the projections.the projections.

2.2. Open contracts. The exact salary allocation for Open contracts. The exact salary allocation for the the Custodial, Maintenance and Grounds Unit, the Custodial, Maintenance and Grounds Unit, the

United Teachers of Northport, and the United Teachers of Northport, and the Teacher Teacher Aide unit cannot be projected Aide unit cannot be projected until the completion until the completion of collective of collective bargaining. Funds bargaining. Funds have been includedhave been included in the in the projections for possible settlements.projections for possible settlements.

Page 10: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED EXPENSES, PROJECTED EXPENSES, continuedcontinued

B.B. Personnel – BenefitsPersonnel – BenefitsThe cost of staff benefits is projected to The cost of staff benefits is projected to increase by 11.86% or $2,885,697. The increase by 11.86% or $2,885,697. The increase is due primarily to:increase is due primarily to:

– the state Teachers Retirement System rate the state Teachers Retirement System rate increase from 7.97% to 9% of payroll (an increase from 7.97% to 9% of payroll (an increase of $901,584);increase of $901,584);

– an increase in health insurance costs of an increase in health insurance costs of approximately 14.5% ($1,657,933).approximately 14.5% ($1,657,933).

Page 11: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED EXPENSES, PROJECTED EXPENSES, continuedcontinued

C.C. Supplies, Materials, Textbooks and Supplies, Materials, Textbooks and Field TripsField TripsIt is projected that these funds will increase by It is projected that these funds will increase by $23,133, or 0.91%. (This covers the cost of the $23,133, or 0.91%. (This covers the cost of the increased enrollment and the cost to continue increased enrollment and the cost to continue the current level of service.)the current level of service.)

Page 12: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED EXPENSES, PROJECTED EXPENSES, continuedcontinued

D.D. EquipmentEquipmentThe allocation for equipment in the financial projections is The allocation for equipment in the financial projections is the same as the amount budgeted for the 2005-2006 school the same as the amount budgeted for the 2005-2006 school year, namely, $155,399. There was no equipment in 2004-year, namely, $155,399. There was no equipment in 2004-2005 and very limited equipment in 2005-2006. This 2005 and very limited equipment in 2005-2006. This infrastructure issue needs to be addressed as soon as the infrastructure issue needs to be addressed as soon as the Board feels it is possible. The estimated need for next year Board feels it is possible. The estimated need for next year for high priority equipment is $1,040,895, which is for high priority equipment is $1,040,895, which is $885,496 higher than the 05-06 allocation.$885,496 higher than the 05-06 allocation.Therefore, providing two projections:Therefore, providing two projections:

Projection 1.Projection 1. Same program, including continuation of Same program, including continuation ofseverely reduced equipment allocation.severely reduced equipment allocation.Projection 2Projection 2.. Same as Projection 1, but with a “normal” Same as Projection 1, but with a “normal”

equipment allocation, which would include the equipment allocation, which would include the items theitems the

staff has determined are high priority.staff has determined are high priority.

Page 13: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED EXPENSES, PROJECTED EXPENSES, continuedcontinued

E.E. Other ServicesOther Services

1.1. Contract ServicesContract ServicesIncludes contracted repairs, postage, copier Includes contracted repairs, postage, copier

rental rental cost, consultants, contracted security, cost, consultants, contracted security, professional professional fees (attorneys, auditors, and fees (attorneys, auditors, and architects) and similar architects) and similar services purchased by the services purchased by the district. It is projected district. It is projected that the cost of the that the cost of the current level of contract services current level of contract services will increase will increase overall by approximately $85,317, or overall by approximately $85,317, or 2.20%. 2.20%. This includes $40,000 to fund the new This includes $40,000 to fund the new internal internal auditor function required by new legal auditor function required by new legal requirements.requirements.

Page 14: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED EXPENSES, PROJECTED EXPENSES, continuedcontinued

E. Other Services, E. Other Services, ContinuedContinued

2.2. UtilitiesUtilitiesIt is projected that the cost of electricity, It is projected that the cost of electricity,

fuel, water fuel, water and telephone will increase overall by and telephone will increase overall by $311,371, or $311,371, or 13.58%.13.58%.

3.3. Contract Transportation Contract Transportation The cost of contracts with outside firms to The cost of contracts with outside firms to

provide provide pupil transportation for our children is pupil transportation for our children is projected to projected to increase by 7.16% ($338,494). increase by 7.16% ($338,494). (Across Long Island, (Across Long Island, bids are coming in above bids are coming in above inflation because of inflation because of increased fuel, insurance increased fuel, insurance and labor costs.)and labor costs.)

Page 15: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED EXPENSES, PROJECTED EXPENSES, continuedcontinued

E.E. Other Services, Other Services, ContinuedContinued

4.4. InsuranceInsuranceIt is projected that the current It is projected that the current

appropriation for appropriation for property and casualty property and casualty insurance will need to be insurance will need to be increased by 13.9% increased by 13.9% ($84,514) to continue the ($84,514) to continue the current level of current level of insurance coverage.insurance coverage.

5.5. Community SupportCommunity SupportIt is projected that the district will continue It is projected that the district will continue

to to support the YDA and The Place at the same support the YDA and The Place at the same level as level as this year, totaling $105,250 ($32,000 this year, totaling $105,250 ($32,000 for the YDA for the YDA and $73,250 for The Place).and $73,250 for The Place).

Page 16: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED EXPENSES, PROJECTED EXPENSES, continuedcontinued

E. Other Services, E. Other Services, ContinuedContinued

6.6. Tuition/Health PaymentsTuition/Health PaymentsA 5.98% increase ($33,627) is projected to A 5.98% increase ($33,627) is projected to

cover cover the cost of outside placements, and the cost of outside placements, and health charges health charges for district residents attending for district residents attending schools outside our schools outside our district. district.

7. 7. BOCES ServicesBOCES ServicesAt this early stage of the process, BOCES At this early stage of the process, BOCES

has not has not estimated its increase for next year. estimated its increase for next year. As a rough As a rough estimate, a 6.0% increase has been estimate, a 6.0% increase has been projected. In projected. In addition, funds have been added addition, funds have been added for a projected for a projected increase of five students to increase of five students to attend BOCES programs attend BOCES programs for the 2006-2007 for the 2006-2007 school year.school year.

Page 17: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED EXPENSES, PROJECTED EXPENSES, continuedcontinued

F.F. Debt ServiceDebt Service

1. 1. Long-Term Debt ServiceLong-Term Debt Service

Long-term debt service (principal and Long-term debt service (principal and interest interest payments for bond issues and payments for bond issues and Employee Employee Retirement System Retirement System amortization) will increase by amortization) will increase by $273,949.$273,949.

2.2. Short-Term Debt ServiceShort-Term Debt Service

Short-term debt service, which includes Short-term debt service, which includes interest interest on tax anticipation notes, is on tax anticipation notes, is projected to increase projected to increase by approximately by approximately $432,177 (34.77%).$432,177 (34.77%).

Page 18: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED EXPENSES, PROJECTED EXPENSES, continuedcontinued

G.G. Interfund TransfersInterfund Transfers

1.1. Capital Reserve FundCapital Reserve Fund

Payment nine of ten for $500,000 is in Payment nine of ten for $500,000 is in the the projection.projection.

2. 2. Summer Special Education ProgramSummer Special Education Program

School district’s mandated portion of this School district’s mandated portion of this required required program is in the projection program is in the projection ($237,730).($237,730).

Page 19: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED REVENUEPROJECTED REVENUE

A.A. RevenueRevenue

1.1. State AidState Aid. No estimates from Albany of state . No estimates from Albany of state aid aid yet. Assumption: no change.yet. Assumption: no change.

2.2. Carry Forward BalanceCarry Forward Balance. Projected at . Projected at $1,600,000.$1,600,000.

3.3. Other incomeOther income. Projected to remain constant . Projected to remain constant

with with the exception of a projected increase in the exception of a projected increase in interest interest income of $375,000, and income of $375,000, and projected increases in projected increases in community services community services program fees.program fees.

Page 20: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED ASSESSED PROJECTED ASSESSED VALUEVALUE

B.B. Assessed ValueAssessed Value

Projected to remain the same as this year. At Projected to remain the same as this year. At this this early stage of the process, it is difficult to early stage of the process, it is difficult to anticipate anticipate whether next year the assessed value whether next year the assessed value will increase, will increase, remain unchanged, or remain unchanged, or decrease. The net change decrease. The net change will depend will depend upon the amount of (a) increases in upon the amount of (a) increases in

assessed value due to construction, and (b) assessed value due to construction, and (b) decreases resulting from reassessment. In decreases resulting from reassessment. In

these these projections, the assumption was made projections, the assumption was made that the that the assessed value will remain at assessed value will remain at $81,176,439.$81,176,439.

Page 21: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED BUDGET PROJECTED BUDGET INCREASEINCREASE

Projected Projected Budget IncreaseBudget Increase

Projection 1.Projection 1. Same program as 2005- Same program as 2005-2006, including reduced equipment 2006, including reduced equipment allocation.allocation.

Projected Budget: Projected Budget: $128,718,625$128,718,625

6.65%6.65%

Projection 2.Projection 2. Same as Projection 1, Same as Projection 1, except restore equipment allocation to except restore equipment allocation to more normal level (purchasing only more normal level (purchasing only those items that are deemed to be those items that are deemed to be high priority to maintain a quality high priority to maintain a quality program). Estimated increase to program). Estimated increase to equipment allocation: $885,496.equipment allocation: $885,496.

Projected Budget: Projected Budget: $129,604,121$129,604,121

7.39%7.39%

Page 22: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTION 1 (base projection) is PROJECTION 1 (base projection) is about 2% over current inflation rate of about 2% over current inflation rate of

4.5%.4.5%.Here are the increases driving that.Here are the increases driving that.

AreaTotal Projected

2006-07 Increase

Amount of Increase ABOVE the 4.5%

Inflation Rate

Health Insurance $1,657,933 $1,143,853

State TRS $901,584 $702,654

TAN's $432,177 $376,250

Utilities $311,371 $208,228

Transportation $338,494 $125,609

Long Term Debt $273,949 $73,970

Insurance $84,514 $57,150

TOTAL $ 4,000,022 $ 2,687,714

Page 23: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

PROJECTED TAX RATEPROJECTED TAX RATE

ProjectedBudget

Increase

EstimatedTax Rate Increase

Projection 1.Projection 1. Equipment at Same Reduced Level as 2005-2006

6.65% 7.91%

Projection 2.Projection 2. Equipment as Requested/Recommended 7.39% 8.74%

Because these projections are based on the assumption that state aid will not increase, the estimated tax rate increase will be a bit higher (about 1.3%) than the spending increase. If additional state aid is forthcoming, the tax rate increase will be lower.

Page 24: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

Our School Taxes Are theOur School Taxes Are theLowest in the Town of Lowest in the Town of

HuntingtonHuntington

Town of Huntington

School Districts

05-06TaxRate

School Tax onHouse with

Average Assessment of

$4,000

Amount HIGHER HIGHER

than NEN

Percent HIGHER HIGHER

than NEN

Npt – East Npt 131.675 $ 5,267.00

A 138.489 $ 5,539.56 $ 272.56 5%

B 145.172 $ 5,806.88 $ 539.88 10%

C 166.580 $ 6,663.20 $1,396.20 27%

D 167.820 $ 6,712.80 $1,445.80 27%

E 171.892 $ 6,875.68 $1,608.68 31%

F 174.995 $ 6,999.80 $1,732.80 33%

G 176.489 $ 7,059.56 $1,792.56 34%

Page 25: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

How Much How Much MOREMORE in School Taxes in School Taxes Homeowners in Other Huntington Homeowners in Other Huntington Districts Pay Each Year – for the Districts Pay Each Year – for the

IDENTICAL HOUSEIDENTICAL HOUSE

$0$200$400$600$800

$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800$2,000

N-EN

A B C D E F G

Town of Huntington School Districts

Page 26: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

How Does Our Spending How Does Our Spending CompareCompare

• Some LI Districts that spend approximately (within $500) what Some LI Districts that spend approximately (within $500) what we spend per pupil:we spend per pupil:– Amityville, Bay Shore, Connetquot, Deer Park, East Rockaway, Amityville, Bay Shore, Connetquot, Deer Park, East Rockaway,

Hauppauge, Longwood, Middle Country, West HempsteadHauppauge, Longwood, Middle Country, West Hempstead• Some LI Districts that spend between $1,000 and $3,000 more Some LI Districts that spend between $1,000 and $3,000 more

per pupil than we spend:per pupil than we spend:– Carle Place, Great Neck, Hempstead, Hewlett-Woodmere, Carle Place, Great Neck, Hempstead, Hewlett-Woodmere,

Huntington, Malverne, Plainview-Old Bethpage, South Country, Huntington, Malverne, Plainview-Old Bethpage, South Country, WyandanchWyandanch

• Some LI Districts that spend more than $3,000 more per pupil Some LI Districts that spend more than $3,000 more per pupil than we spend:than we spend:– East Williston, Island Park, Great Neck, Jericho, Locust Valley, East Williston, Island Park, Great Neck, Jericho, Locust Valley,

Manhasset, Mineola, Lawrence, Port Jefferson, North Shore, SyossetManhasset, Mineola, Lawrence, Port Jefferson, North Shore, Syosset

If we were to spend $3,000 more per pupil,If we were to spend $3,000 more per pupil,our budget would be $19.8 million higher. our budget would be $19.8 million higher.

That equates to 264 more teaching positions.That equates to 264 more teaching positions.

Page 27: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

Student AccomplishmentsStudent Accomplishments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Most Competitive Highly Competitive

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

AP Course Enrollment IB Course Enrollment

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1984 2005

Admissions toBest Colleges

% Regents Diploma

AP/IB Program

$0.0$2.0$4.0$6.0$8.0

$10.0$12.0$14.0

Dolla

rs in

Mill

ions

Scholarship Money

Page 28: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

SUMMARYSUMMARY

• This year’s projection (This year’s projection (Projection 2Projection 2, with the higher , with the higher equipment allocation) is equipment allocation) is 4.5 percentage points lower4.5 percentage points lower than than last last year’s projection, demonstrating that last year’s year’s projection, demonstrating that last year’s predictions of easing financial pressures were accurate.predictions of easing financial pressures were accurate.

• The projection (The projection (Projection 2Projection 2, with the higher equipment , with the higher equipment amount) is also amount) is also almostalmost two percentage points (1.93, to be two percentage points (1.93, to be exact) lowerexact) lower than the budget increase approved by the than the budget increase approved by the voters in June, 2005.voters in June, 2005.

• The Superintendent and staff stand ready to provide any The Superintendent and staff stand ready to provide any assistance the Board would like as the Board contemplates assistance the Board would like as the Board contemplates what direction to provide to the staff on January 9.what direction to provide to the staff on January 9.

Page 29: Financial Projections for 2006-2007

The Next StepsThe Next Steps

• The Board will be reviewing and The Board will be reviewing and considering these financial projections.considering these financial projections.

• The Board is scheduled to provide The Board is scheduled to provide budget direction to the staff at the next budget direction to the staff at the next Board meeting on Monday, January 9.Board meeting on Monday, January 9.

• Based on the Board direction given on Based on the Board direction given on January 9, the staff will develop a budget January 9, the staff will develop a budget and propose it to the Board on March 6.and propose it to the Board on March 6.


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