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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD @NASEMTRB #TRBwebinar Finding the Path – Messaging Before, During, and After Weather Events October 28, 2020
Transcript
Page 1: Finding the Path – Messaging Before, During, and After ...onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/webinars/201028.pdfIgnition spotted July 13 th 2018 9:36 pm – Hwy 140 Hite Cove near El

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

@NASEMTRB#TRBwebinar

Finding the Path –Messaging Before, During, and After Weather Events

October 28, 2020

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The Transportation Research Board

has met the standards and

requirements of the Registered

Continuing Education Providers

Program. Credit earned on completion

of this program will be reported to

RCEP. A certificate of completion will

be issued to participants that have

registered and attended the entire

session. As such, it does not include

content that may be deemed or

construed to be an approval or

endorsement by RCEP.

PDH Certification Information:

•2.0 Professional Development Hour (PDH) – see follow-up email for instructions•You must attend the entire webinar to be eligible to receive PDH credits•Questions? Contact Reggie Gillum at [email protected]

#TRBwebinar

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Learning Objectives

#TRBwebinar

1. Identify your agency’s current Pathfinder level

2. Integrate your transportation asset management program into Pathfinder activities

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Finding the Path – Messaging Before, During, and After Weather Events

Jack StickelTempestas Enterprises

Alaska DOT&PF (retired)[email protected]

Transportation Asset Management Conference WebinarOctober 28,2020

1:00 – 3:00 PM Eastern

Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/20 1

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The National Academies of

SCIENCESENGINEERINGMEDICINE

TRBTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

Data and Information Systems Section

Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/202

http://www.trb.org/Calendar/Blurbs/178208.aspxAbstract deadline extended to October 30

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Transportation Asset Management Conference Call for Abstracts

The National Academies of

SCIENCESENGINEERINGMEDICINE

TRBTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

Data and Information Systems Section

• Implementation• Data Governance / Tools• Managing Risk• Partners and Peers• Sustaining Asset Management in Your Organization• Cross-cutting issue 1: Transit• Cross-cutting issue 2: Resilience

Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/203

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Transportation Asset Management Conference Cross-cutting Issue - Resilience

The National Academies of

SCIENCESENGINEERINGMEDICINE

TRBTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

Data and Information Systems Section

• Success stories• Balancing resiliency requirements against practical design • Standards and practices for hydraulic engineering

addressing extreme weather events • Integrating resilience into the planning process• Resiliency for Cyber security threats• Decision support tools to mitigate extreme weather events

and natural disasters• Innovative approaches and collaborative partnerships

Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/204

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Pathfinder - Linking to Transportation Asset Management Resilience*

What Can Transportation Agencies Do to Build Resilience

The National Academies of

SCIENCESENGINEERINGMEDICINE

TRBTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

Data and Information Systems Section

• Know Your Vulnerabilities• Use the transportation planning process• Incorporate climate risks into design and asset

management• Develop operations and maintenance strategies

* FHWA Office of Planning, Environment, and Realty Sustainability Resilience https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/sustainability/resilience/publications/bcrt_brochure.cfm

Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/205

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The National Academies of

SCIENCESENGINEERINGMEDICINE

TRBTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

Data and Information Systems Section

Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/20 6

https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/fhwahop16086/

fhwahop16086.pdf

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Presenters

The National Academies of

SCIENCESENGINEERINGMEDICINE

TRBTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

Data and Information Systems Section

• Tony Coventry, FHWATransportation Specialist, Road Weather Management

• Lisa Worthington, California Department of TransportationHQ Maintenance – External Liaison for Fire / Fuels / ForestSacramento, CA

• Kris Mattarochia, National Weather ServiceScience & Operations Officer San Joaquin Valley – Hanford, CA

• Jeff Williams, Utah Department of Transportation – Weather Program Manager / Meteorologist Traffic Operations CenterSalt Lake City, UT

Pathfinder TRB Webinar – 10/28/20 7

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Pathfinder Program Overview

for

TRB Webinar: Finding the Path —Messaging Before, During, and After Weather Events

October 28, 2020

Tony Coventry, Transportation SpecialistFederal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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What is Pathfinder?

Value of Pathfinder

PathfinderPrograms

FHWA Initiative

History of Pathfinder

Collaborative Nature

Major Players

Current Programs

TRB Webinar: Finding the Path--Messaging Before, During, and After Weather Events

Learning Objectives:

Aligned Public Communications

Improved Safety

Improved Mobility

Wide Range of Applications

Implementation Guides

Resource Toolkits

Workshops

Webinars

Case Studies

Peer to Peer Assistance

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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What is Pathfinder…

Source: FHWA

• Operational Strategy used by agencies to effectively inform the traveling public ahead of, during and after adverse road weather conditions to mitigate the impact on the transportation system.

• Collaboration between the National Weather Service (NWS), State departments of transportation (DOTs), and support contractors (and emergency managers/local agencies as needed) to share and translate forecasts into consistent public transportation impact statements

• Goal: Dissemination of public information that is:• Clear • Concise• Impact-based• Consistent

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

State DOT

National Weather Service

Emergency Managers, Local

Agencies

Private Sector

Provider

It’s all about collaboration!

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The Evolution of Pathfinder2002

Winter Olympics

2013 Development and Pilot Deployment

2017 - 2018FHWA EDC-4

Initiative

2019 - onwardFHWA Road

Weather Program

Idea born from Utah DOT/NWS Collaboration

Successes

Official Pathfinder Initiative implemented

Push for national deployment via EDC

Program

Becomes part of road weather “toolbox”

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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States Using Pathfinder Strategies

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

Source: FHWA

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Pathfinder Uses

Winter Weather

Hurricanes

Dust Storms

Flooding

Wildfires

Special Events

and more…

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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Key Takeaways• Collaboration (new and existing relationships)• Consistent, impact-focused messaging• Wide range of uses• Community experience and support

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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Why Pathfinder?

• Mobility• About 25% of non-recurring delays are due to weather• Congestion costs about $9.5B/year for 85 urban areas*

• Productivity• Weather-related delays add about $3.4B/year to freight

costs

• Environment• Chemicals used for anti-icing affect watersheds, air

quality and infrastructure

*Source: 2015 Urban Mobility Scorecard http://mobility.tamu.edu/ums/

Impacts of Adverse Road Weather

Source: FHWA

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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Pathfinder Strategies

Source: Georgia DOT

Pathfinder Communication strategies can help agencies inform travelers ahead of, during, and after adverse road weather conditions.

Intended Outcome - Drivers are well-informed and able to make safe and efficient travel decisions

Improving Communications• Source credibility• Source familiarity• Message consistency• Message specificity• Message certainty

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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Improving Communications• Source credibility• Source familiarity• Message consistency• Message specificity• Message certainty

Pathfinder Communication Strategies

• Forecast and Weather Impact sources– Personal – 59%– Local TV – 57%– Local radio – 43%– Government sources – 27%

• Objective: Create a high level of trust in messages and warnings from official sources, specifically the NWS, DOT, and other government sources.

• 511• VMS/CMS• HAR• Social Media

Message Certainty

Massage Specificity

Message Consistency

• Traditional Media• Traveler Info Websites• Mobile Apps

Multiple Mediums of Communications

Source: National Weather Service

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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Improving Communications• Source credibility• Source familiarity• Message consistency• Message specificity• Message certainty

Pathfinder Communication Strategies

• Most travelers do not take action based on first indication of risk.

– Wait for, or seek, additional information

– True for a variety of hazard types

• Access to two or more sources conveying the same information significantly increases likelihood of self-protective actions

• More likely to delay or take no action, if messages conflict

• Key component of Pathfinder is to develop common messaging

• NWS offices should direct users to DOT webpages for additional road weather info

• DOTs can link to NWS web pages or forecasts

• Sharing each other’s content is a powerful tool

– Tweets, Facebook posts, etc.– Endorse another trusted voice

Challenge Solution

Source: National Weather Service

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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NOTE: Road sign is not real and does not conform to the MUTCD

Improving Communications• Source credibility• Source familiarity• Message consistency• Message specificity• Message certainty

Pathfinder Communication Strategies

• Provide as much specificity as reasonably possible– “Snowfall is expected to begin accumulating

on roads in the Minneapolis area between 5:00 and 7:00 AM”

• Include specific route information and icons for impacted routes based on collaborated impacts

Source: National Weather Service

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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Improving Communications• Source credibility• Source familiarity• Message consistency• Message specificity• Message certainty

Pathfinder Communication Strategies

• Sharing information on certainty is important in generating response

• One way to do this is with impact or confidence graphics

• Consistent statements, social media as well, etc.

“When I ask local officials to characterize their uncertainty

needs, the conversation almost immediately turns into this

statement, "We want to know how confident the forecaster feels." -

Gina Eosco, Social ScientistSource: National Weather Service

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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Key Takeaways

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

• NWS and DOTs are trusted sources and jointmessaging is effective in generating behaviorchange

• Message consistency, specificity and certainty are key factors to effectivecommunication

• Well-informed motorists make better, safer decisions.

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Implementing Pathfinder Strategies

Relationships Communication

Weather Events Messaging

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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Pathfinder Implementation Roadmap• Build upon existing relationships

• Document how things work(primary contacts and backups and operations)

• Clarify roles, responsibilities, and resources

(triggers for communication, expectations, sharing data and messaging)

• Define Communication • Between agency partners• To traveling public

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

• Resilient relationships

• Deep relationships - Better understanding of weather and impacts:

Determine roadway impacts from weather events

Develop consistent, impact-based messages and dissemination approaches

• Clear definition of how to collaborate

NWS Chat

Conference calls, ad-hoc “calls” to discuss situations and solutions

• Commitment to continually improving processes

After-event debriefs; lessons learned, what can be improved

Source: Top-National Weather Service, Bottom-blueridgeparkway.org

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Pathfinder Technical AssistanceFHWA provides technical assistance for agencies interested in:

• Awareness/understanding• Implementation• Information exchange

Case Studies and Fact Sheets

Pathfinder Toolkit

Webinars

Workshops

Peer-to-Peer Technical Assistance

Demonstration Site Visits/Peer Exchanges

Videos

Pathfinder Resources are available at https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy

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Pathfinder Project Guidance Workbook

Pathfinder Resources are available at https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy

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Example Pathfinder Workshop Agenda

Pathfinder Resources are available at https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy

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Pathfinder Toolkit

Access the toolkit from FHWA’s Road Weather Management

Exchange Website!

https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy

Pathfinder Resources are available at https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy

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Pathfinder Toolkit

Pathfinder Resources are available at https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy

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Pathfinder Resources• Pathfinder Implementation Guide

• 8-steps for deployment• Webinars

• #1 – DMS Weather Messaging• #2 – Effective Weather Messaging

• Fact Sheets and Case Studies• Pathfinder Overview• Initiating and Growing Pathfinder in Your

State• WSR Benefits and Costs• Implementation Recommendations

• Peer Exchanges• 2018 Summit - Salt Lake City, UT• 2020 Summit - Virtual

• Case Studies• Colorado’s Pathfinder Process• Managing the Total Solar Eclipse –

Wyoming DOT Case Study• Pathfinder at the Local Level – Truckee,

CA• Pathfinder videos

• The Power of Pathfinder• Implementing Pathfinder in Your State• Pathfinder Coordination with NWS• Coordination with Idaho DOT• Coordination with Wyoming DOT

….and more!

Pathfinder Resources are available at https://go.usa.gov/xnSqy

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ContactsFederal Highway Administration• David Johnson, Road Weather Management Team Lead [email protected]• Tony Coventry, Transportation Specialist [email protected]• Ray Murphy, ITS Specialist [email protected]

National Weather Service• Roham Abtahi, Surface Transportation Program Manager [email protected]

23Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Road Weather Management Program (RWMP)

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TRB Webinar: Finding the PathMessaging Before, During and After Weather Events

October 28, 2020PANEL

Lisa Worthington, Caltrans HQExternal Liaison – Fire/Fuels/Forest Management

[email protected] 530-613-7332 office 916-657-4767

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Case Study: Ferguson FirePREPARE for Winter After Wildfire

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Incident # 5927

Yosemite National Park ‘Arched Rock’ entrance

Midpines MtceStation

Ferguson landslide

El Portal

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Ferguson Fire FACT SHEET Ignition spotted July 13th 2018 9:36 pm – Hwy 140 Hite Cove near El Portal

37 days, 96,901 acres 2 firefighter fatalities, 10 structures

closed Yosemite National Park for 9 days between August 5th -14th

height of summer vacation season 100% contained August 18th

4 Million international visitors per yearNational Wild and Scenic Merced River Canyon

12 miles SR 140 in Mariposa County in District 10 Caltrans Scenic Highway

Sierra & Stanislaus National Forest

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PREPARE actions

WEATHER forecasting

ASSESS watershed

TRIAGE highway

WILDFIRE incident response

Burn Area Response =

PREPARE

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PART 1 WILDFIRE (39 days)

PART 2 TRIAGE (5 days)

PART 3 ASSESS (2 weeks)

PART 4 WEATHER (30 days)

PART 5 PREPARE (3-5 years)

PREPARE has 5 Parts

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PREPARE actions

WEATHER forecasting

ASSESS watershed

TRIAGE highway

WILDFIRE incident response

PREPAREonly works if:

• Messaging occurs reliably before, during

and after weather events

• Interagency partners trust each other in

their line of work

• PREPARE actions are rehearsed enough to

be a springboard for real life decisions

(“Semper Gumby”)

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PART 1 – WILDFIRE

PREPARE actions

WEATHER forecasting

ASSESS watershed

TRIAGE highway

WILDFIRE incident response

• Burn Area Response – no current policy• Wildfire incidents follow ICS• Agency representatives = “Collaborators”• Caltrans should participate at IC base camp• Planning Cycle (daily AM/PM)• If asked, “Can Caltrans do this?” the Agency

representative shall have:o Delegated authority to make decisionso Situational awarenesso Forward-thinking abilityo Diplomacyo Sensitivity to human impactso Watershed-scale trainingo Maintenance or Construction staff ready to go

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PART 2 – TRIAGE

PREPARE actions

WEATHER forecasting

ASSESS watershed

TRIAGE highway

WILDFIRE incident response

• Reset assets• Open and safe• Patrols

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PART 3 – ASSESS

PREPARE actions

WEATHER forecasting

ASSESS watershed

TRIAGE highway

WILDFIRE incident response

• Watershed assessment• Expertise on the front edge of BAER/WERT • Intense, short commitment 2-3 weeks• Lead a tour to share historical knowledge• Request focused modeling of road assets• Prevent delays in mitigation investment• Director’s Orders scope much more focused• Strengthen inter-agency decision making

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What type of assessmenthappens at 80-100%

fire containment?

BAER or WERT … or both?

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BAERThe objective of BAER is to identify imminent post-

wildfire threats to human life and safety, property,

and critical natural or cultural resources on National

Forest System lands and downstream ‘values at risk,’

take immediate actions, as appropriate, to manage

unacceptable risks.

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BAER Measuring soil hydrophobicity in a high-severity burn area on the Ferguson Fire. After creating different depths in the soil, the geologists pour droplets of water onto each depth to determine the extent of how much water soaks into it(hydrophilic) or rolls off of it (hydrophobic).

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BAER

USGS website data when accessing each drainage for debris flow potential. https://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/postfire_debrisflow/

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WERTWhen wildfire-induced threats to life and safety

are present, a state team of civil engineers,

engineering geologists, hydrologists and

California Department of Forestry and Fire

Protection (CAL FIRE) staff are assembled into a

Watershed Emergency Response Team (WERT)

to evaluate potential life-safety and property

hazards from post-fire debris flows, hyper-

concentrated flows, and flood flows.

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WERT

The primary goal of WERT is to provide a rapid

evaluation of post-fire hazards to

downslope/downstream values-at-risk (VARs),

make recommendations to reduce life safety and

property exposure to these post-fire hazards, and

transfer this mapped information to responsible

local agencies tasked with emergency planning.

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USGS - debris flow potential

https://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/postfire_debrisflow/

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PART 4 – WEATHER

PREPARE actions

WEATHER forecasting

ASSESS watershed

TRIAGE highway

WILDFIRE incident response

• Weather Decision Tiers• Risk levels change for each fire• Partner with NWS office• Rain threshold!

Presentation continues with a hand-off to Kristian Mattarocchia, NWS

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National Weather Service Hanford, CA & Ca lifornia Depa rtment of Tra nsporta tion:

Colla bora ting to Protect Motorists with PREPARE a nd Pa thfinder

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Ferguson Briceburg Burn Scar Unified Messaging

Pictured: October 3, 2018 Mudslide at Highway 140 towards Yosemite before the one lane bridge across the Merced River

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Lisa Worthington Forest Management Program Manager – CalTrans HQNWS Hanford Forecasters and ITO

Kris Mattarochia NWS Hanford, Science & Operations OfficerChris Smith Chief, Emergency Operations Branch – CalTrans HQ

Dennis T. Agar Director (Former) – District 10Willie Kuhl Chief, Traffic Management Branch - District 10

Steve Takigawa Deputy Director, Maintenance and Operations – CalTrans HQTyler Comerford Weathernet Operations Manager – Narwhal Group

Greg Stock Yosemite National Park – GeologistKevin Packard Mariposa County Sheriff's Office – OES

Rick Lindgren California Highway Patrol Lieutenant – Mariposa AreaRosemarie Smallcombe District 1 Supervisor – Mariposa County

PREPARE Leadership Team

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Timeline

CalTrans PREPARE meeting Agencies work on an easy to understand

plan of action

October 2018

November 2018Weather Decision Tiers Finalized.

June 2019Weather Decision Tiers

Summer VersionFinalized.

October 2019After Action Review of 2018-19.

Weather Decision Tiers re-written for Year 2

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Weather Decision Tiers First Guess

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Debris Flow Risk

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Possible Trouble Spots Along Hwy 140 (From Greg Stock YNP)

Numbers of high sediment delivery locations.

711

13

3619 20

One Lane Bridge

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Weather Decision Tiers Final Draft

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Weather Decision Tiers Forecast

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Weather Decision Tiers Forecast

• Pre-emptive closures of Hwy 140 were made based on this forecast.• The road was closed about 10hrs before HIGH was indicated.• This kept vehicles off the road hours before the worst conditions. CHP Rick Lindgren

• "On Nov. 28 through 29, 2018, Caltrans initiated a 34-hour pre-emptive closure based on Level 3 (high risk) weather predictions of hazardous conditions that would result in impassable sections of SR 140. Four major mudslides occurred and crews hauled out about 2,000 cubic yards of rock, mud, and debris."

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Weather Decision Tiers

From Lisa Worthington – CalTrans HQ, “$3 million saved in 2019 because of

reduced OT staffing in Traffic Management Center and

Emergency Operations Center. These amounts were verified by the

California Auditor General.”

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Weather Decision Tiers Changes for 2019-20

Weathernet/Narwhal Group will be installed another 15 min rain gauge near the top of Feliciana Mountain, paid for and requested by CalTrans.

This will be the only gauge that reports 15 min rainfall rates every 15 minutes.

Weathernet give access to this data as part of thePathfinder initiative. They worked extensively with UDOT and the Salt Lake City office when Pathfinder was beginning.

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NWS Winter Storm Severity Index + CalTrans Operation Snowflake

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Christmas 2019I-5/ Hwy 58

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Questions?

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Utah Pathfinder Collaboration

Federal Government

State Government

Private Sector

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About Jeff Williams• B.S. Atmospheric Sciences, University of Northern Colorado

• National Weather Service (SLC), Intern

• DayWeather, Forecast Services Manager

• NorthWest Weathernet, Regional Manager

• UDOT, Weather Program Manager

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Weather and Travel Time Reliability

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Economic Impact of Road Weather EventsEconomic impact in Utah for a 24 hour statewide winter storm

Total Economic Impact$66.36 million

• Wages & Salaries• $42.81 Million

• Retail Sales • $18.26 million

• Federal Taxes• $3.32 million

• State and Local Taxes• $1.98 million

Source: American Highway Users Alliance performed by IHS Global Insight (2009)

Statesandprovincescoveredbythestudyinclude:Illinois, $400 million lost per dayIndiana, $157 million lost per dayIowa, $70 million lost per dayKentucky, $96 million lost per dayMaryland, $184 million lost per dayMassachusetts, $265 million lost per dayMichigan, $251 million lost per dayMinnesota, $167 million lost per dayMissouri, $162 million lost per dayNew Jersey, $289 million lost per dayNew York, $700 million lost per dayOhio, $300 million lost per dayPennsylvania, $370 million lostUtah,$66millionlostperdayVirginia, $260 million lost per dayWisconsin, $149 million lost per dayOntario, $474 million lost per dayQuebec, $250 million lost per day

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Collaboration“Not how much snow will fall but how that snow will impact the roads”

What When Where

Overarching Message

Type of storm and

how intense

When will it impact the

state

Highlight specific areas

of travel concern

Provide tools to influence safe

traveling behavior

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Collaboration Rules of Thumb- Focus on the “message”, not the meteorology.

• “First, it should be understood that forecasts possess no intrinsic value. They acquire value through their ability to influence the decisions made by users of the forecasts.” – Allan Murphy

- Don’t instruct the public. Give them tools to make the best decision.

- Detail road specific impacts concerning timing and intensity

- Share plans of action• UDOT (outreach, products, etc.)• NWS (suite of information services)

- Monitor how the media has represented the event

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Challenges with Criteria- ½” of road snow during the evening commute can create a greater impact than 4”

overnight

- NWS watch and warning times will likely not match road weather impact times

- Direction of winds are crucial to UDOT while speeds meet NWS criteria

- Criteria for standing water/flooding, rockfall, fog/reduced visibilities, mudslides, blowing dust/snow may not align between UDOT and NWS

- Construction concerns usually begin well below watch/warning criteria

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Utah Pathfinder Benefits- Unified Message

• Informed travelers• Cohesive weather impact statements enable drivers to make better decisions regarding whether or when to

travel• Optimize mobility

• Decrease congestion• Increase snow plow effectiveness

- Sharing Resources• Share weather observations

• NWS Weather Spotters• Snow plow reports• Citizen Reporter program• Traffic cameras

• Shared tools• NWS high resolution local modeling• UDOT pan/tilt/zoom camera access• Portable RWIS trailers• Satellite communications

- Improved Safety, Mobility, and Economy- Negligible Costs

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January 2013 Case Study

Study of Driver Awareness and Response to Winter StormsPartnered by UDOT, NWS, and the University of Utah

Barjenbruch et al. 2016 (Weather, Climate, and Society)

• Two events were surveyed• Heavy snow, PM commute (January 10)• Freezing rain, AM commute (January 24)

• 400 surveys completed per event• Awareness of weather forecast• Sources of weather and road information• Modification of travel plans

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January 2013 Case StudyMany indicated that they modified their travel plans

Most heavily utilized sourcesPersonal sources – 59%

Local TV – 57%Local radio – 43%

Government sources – 27%

Type of Change PercentChanged schedule Changed route Did not travel Used mass transit

62%26%13%6%

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Actual Behavior ChangePM Commute Travel Data Comparison – Salt Lake County

Jan 10th, 2013 (Snow Event) vs Jan 17th, 2013 (Dry Conditions)

Blue – Snow Event Red – Dry Conditions

Weather ConditionsOn Snow Event Day

Noon: 49 F, dry and partly

sunny

2 PM: 36 F, dry conditions

5 PM: 2” per hour snowfall

rates

Key Observations:• Commute peak shifted by

2 hours • 43% less volume during

typical peak• Peak occurred before it

began snowing!

• Predictor of behavior change:

• Gov’t & personal sources

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President’s Day Holiday Weekend

7MajorSkiResorts-All within 40 minutes of SLC airport -2nd Busiest Ski Holiday-Estimated 50% increase comparedto normal ski weekends

St.George,Utah-3-4 hour drive from Salt Lake-Las Vegas Climate

St. George

SLC

Scipio

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2017 vs. 2018 President’s Day Weather2018

Large winter storm from late Sun through Tue morning- Up to 25” of snow ski resorts and valley benches

- St. George weekend weather: Highs 60s, sunny and dry

2017Unorganized and mild winter storm

- High mountain road snow impacts, valley rain showers- St. George: Highs 50s with rain showers

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Pre-Storm VMS Signs Posted(2-3 days prior to storm)

Expired: Sunday 6:00 PM

Expired (for R2): Sunday 12:00 PMExpired (for R3): Sunday 3:00 PM

Expired: Sunday 9:00 AM

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Friday – Saturday “Vehicle Miles Traveled”Wasatch Front Metro to St. George

8%15% 16% 27% 8%

20%

20%

25%

17%

17%

18%

23%

26% 17%14%

20%13% 16%

17%

13% 37%

24%

5%

9%

8%

16%20% 33% 19%

34%

32%

34%

28%

27%

23%4%

11% 21%12% 18%

17% 15%

24%

16%

19%

22%

21%

19%15%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0:00

1:00

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4:00

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6:00

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0

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VMT

Friday-Saturday

President's Day Weekend 2017 vs. 2018Friday and Saturday Southbound Travel

I-15 SB MP 250 (Scipio) - MP 0 (St. George)

2017 2018

Friday+18.3%

Saturday+17.1%

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Sunday – Tuesday “Vehicle Miles Traveled”St. George to Wasatch Front Metro

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0:00

1:00

2:00

3:00

4:00

5:00

6:00

7:00

8:00

9:00

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011

:00

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:00

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:00

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:00

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:00

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:00

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:00

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:00

0:00

VMT

Sunday-Monday-Tuesday

President's Day Weekend 2017 vs. 2018Sunday-Tuesday Northbound Travel

I-15 NB MP 0 (St. George) - 250 (Scipio)

2017 2018

Sunday+50.1%

Monday (holiday)-5.4%

Tuesday+61.8%

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Utah Burn Scar Statistics

- 19 burn scars have impacted UDOT roads since 2012• Road closures have occurred on several occasions• Fatalities have occurred due to blowing dust and crashes due to debris

on the road• Mitigation efforts can be significant

- Typically requires 3 to 5 years for burn scars to heal• 1 burn scar has healed for debris flows, but not for avalanches• Avalanche paths are treated as permanent burn scars in Little

Cottonwood Canyon

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Utah Debris Flow Assessment- NWS and NFS hydrologists and Utah Geological Survey

• Assess burn scar on-site• Via hiking, helicopter, or drones

• Assess fire intensity• Identify critical infrastructure that could be impacted• Establish debris flow rainfall rates for entire burn scar• Sediment types and rock fall hazards• “A new burn scar can produce flooding of 10-20 times the 100-year flood • event”

– Richard Giraud (Utah Geological Survey)

- UDOT Weather Program• Use fire intensity maps• Follow the drainages no matter how far the origin is from the road!• Assess capability of infrastructures• Assess transportable ash and fire debris• No fire is too small to cause impacts• Establish rainfall rates specifically for UDOT roads

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Utah Debris Flow Resources

- Weather Station Deployment• Coordinate with NWS and NFS• NWS can deploy Utah Dept of Public Safety tripod weather stations• UDOT mobile weather stations

• 6 tripod weather stations• Designed to be deployed for 3 to 5 years

• 5 RWIS trailers• Cameras are very valuable where radar coverage is poor

• Weather station automatic alerting• UDOT UPLAN – Burn Scar Monitoring• UDOT Emergency Management

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Fire Intensity Maps

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Jeff WilliamsUDOT Weather Program Manager

[email protected]

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Presenter Information#TRBWebinar

• Moderator: Jack Stickel, Tempestas Enterprises• Tony Coventry, FHWA• Lisa Worthington, California DOT• Kris Mattarochia, National Weather Service• Jeff Williams, Utah DOT

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Get Involved with TRB

#TRBwebinarReceive emails about upcoming TRB webinarshttps://bit.ly/TRBemails

Find upcoming conferenceshttp://www.trb.org/Calendar

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Get Involved with TRB

Be a Friend of a Committee bit.ly/TRBcommittees– Networking opportunities

– May provide a path to Standing Committee membership

Join a Standing Committee bit.ly/TRBstandingcommittee

Work with CRP https://bit.ly/TRB-crp

Update your information www.mytrb.org

#TRBwebinar

Getting involved is free!

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TRB’s Annual Meeting Registration is Open!

• 100th TRB Annual Meeting is fully virtual in January 2021

• Continue to promote with hashtag #TRBAM• Registration is open!• Check our website for more information

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#TRB100


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