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Migration in Demographic

Perspective

Overview provided by

Sally E. FindleyRapporteur

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My Objectives

Summarize critical theoretical premises inPatterns and Processes of International Migrationin the 21st Century (Massey)

Show how the Regional papers address orilluminate these premises Have Migration Patterns Changed in post-Apartheid

South Africa-Posel

Urbn and Internal Migration Patterns in Latin America-

Cerrutti & Bertoncello Bridging the Gap: Internal Migration in Asia-Guest

Identify queries that will help us collectivelydevelopAfrican perspectives on migration and urbanization

that adapt these premises and lessons

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Theoretical Premise #1(Massey)

International migration is structured byeconomic globalization

4 historical periods of international migration:

mercantile, industrial, limited migration, post-industrial

Migration flows originally dominated byEuropean economic expansion

Current international migration patterns isstructured around the extensive cross-nationalflows of capital, materials, and information

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The Emergence of Dominant

Migration Poles in the 21st Century Two basic immigration systems (cf. Figure 2)

Diversified, globally networked flows

North America and Western Europe 80% of immigrants from own region

South Africa is included in this group as a hub ininternational migration for Africa

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Theoretical Premise #2:

Development causes migration International migration is stimulated by thedevelopment of markets, specifically whentraditional and command economies are

incorporated into global trade & informationnetworks

Caveat: Initiation of migration does not equalperpetuation of migration; ongoingtransformations in the economy of sendingand receiving nation-states will conditionfuture migration patterns

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Theoretical Premise #3: Marketfailure is more important than

market success

Failures in capital, credit, and insurance

markets are more important than wagedifferentials

Segmentation of the labor market

underpins long-term demand forimmigrant labor in core/pole regions

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Theoretical Premise #4: Network

expansion perpetuates migration

Globalization involves social, political,information and communications integrationacross borders

Migration networks provide social capital tosubsequent migrants

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Theoretical Premise #5: Migration

tends toward permanence Most migrants dont intend to stay

permanently, but many factors lead migrants

to prolong their stay Even if migrants dont stay put, they may

stay out.

However, in the aggregate a specificmigration system may be of limited duration.

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Theoretical Premise #6:

State policies influence migrationsystems

States have political and ideological

reasons to articulate restrictive policies Explicit immigration policies often at odds

with macro-economic policies

Dual labor market w/in pole is mirrored by dualimmigration policy

Widening gap between immigration policy goalsand the actual outcomes

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Caveat to Theoretical Premise #6:

States can only go so far inregulating international migration

Global economy is not controlled by theState

Repression of migrants is politically difficult

Tendency to symbolic policies with only theappearance of control

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Implications for international

migration policies in the 21st century

Unilateral State efforts to restrict and control

immigration are doomed to fail. Need to work multilaterally to manage

international migration flows more effectivelyas a vital and positive dimension of economicglobalization

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Where do African nations fit into this

international migration system? Africans participate in migrations to the four majorpoles (and South Africa) Half a million net emigrants from region in 2000

20% of all emigrants from resource poor regions African nations also are linked together in intra-

continental migration flows 16 million immigrants in Africa in 2000

Higher immigration rate than Asia or Latin America Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Tanzania are in the top 20nations receiving migrants 1990-2000

Mali, Somalia, Congo, Burundi and Sierra Leoneamong the top 20 sending nations

23% of all immigrants in resource-poor regions

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Perspectives from Latin America

and Asia Most African nations are far less urbanized than

most nations in Latin America or Asia, but sharewith them important patterns of international and

internal migration Most international migrants move w/in the region

International migration is encompassed w/in a largermigration system with much more important rural-urbanand urban-urban migration flows

How do Latin American and Asianinternational/internal migration systems differ from

African patterns? Which subregions in eachcontinent share similar patterns?

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Queries about African

International Migration Patterns What is the African international migration

system? Which countries serve as poles for this

system, e.g., South Africa and others?

How can this model of African migrations beadapted to allow for varying stages of economic

integration into the global economy? What lessons

from the Latin American or Asian experiences?

How can the international migration system outlinedby Massey be expanded to incorporate internal

migration flows?

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SAP: The heavy toll of globalization Debt is the corollary of global economic growth.

By 1995, African nations had over $300 billion indebt. Over a dozen African nations are severelyindebted low-income countries.

Structural Adjustment Programs (SAP)are inplace throughout Africa to structure debtrepayment.

SAP undercuts agricultural sector earnings,wages, and health and social services

Migration Catch-22 of SAP: Disinvestmentsdemanded by SAP are precisely in thingsmigrants seek.

SAP has been associated with escalatingemigrations

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Latin American SAP Perspectives(Cerrutti and Bertoncello)

Latin American nations also heavily indebted andalso suffer from SAP

Increased dependence on agro-industry drives

youth out of rural areas but tighter regional labormarkets and cutback in metropolitan publicservices spreads migrants to secondary cities

Latin America is the only region with a reduction

in migrant stock 1990-2000 How has SAP undercut State capacity, and inturn affected international migration systems as itappears to have in Africa?

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Asian SAP Perspectives (Guest)

Economic crises of the late 1990s has increasedurban unemployment, leading to migrationturnaround with men returning home to rural

areas in Thailand and Indonesia Bridging the Gap: Female migrants key in helpingThai rural families cope with their increased poverty

Is Bridging the Gap also Bridges over SAP?

How has SAP changed urban growth patterns? Inthe more urbanized States, is there reduced

primacy and increased growth of secondary cities?

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South African Perspectives (Posel)

No explicit discussion of SAP Notes rise of intra-African migrations with

lifting of apartheid reflects the patternidentified by Massey re. South African

migration pole Increased undocumented migration may also

be evidence of the response of other Africansto SAP in their countries

In what ways does South Africa conform tothe post-industrial pole and how doescontinued circular migration related to miningindustry suggest a different model?

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Global economics: Realities for

African nations African nations are enormously different in their

degree of insertion into the global economy

Dual economies are present in African nations butspatial and demographic mix is reversed: Only the minority of the society and economy is directly

linked to global capital or trade

T

he majority are in primary agricultural andsecondary/informal sectors, with low capitalization andserving in an exploited capacity relative to thefirst/formal sector economies

Spatial concentration of global economic linkages in the

cities in most African nations

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Perspectives from Latin Americaand Asia

Failure of import substitution industrializationpolicies in Latin America, with shift to primaryproduction for export Mechanization of agriculture in Argentina was

accomplished by urban, not rural, labor force No reduction in rural outmigration

East and SE Asian countries have promotedexport-led development w. free trade zones

Increased female rural-urban migration Female migrants are more likely than males to settle in

urban areas

Males are making temporary urban-rural migrations until

they can re-establish in an urban area

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African Queries re. Globalization

Which elements of the linkage between theglobal economy and national economicstructures shift migrants into the international

circuits and which into the internal circuits? To what extent will international migrants

continue the circular patterns of previous

decades, even if with different destinations?What features of integration into the globaleconomy most facilitate the rise of femalemigration?

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African migrants do not all go bychoice

Many of the major sending countries also havelarge involuntary/forced migration flows. Half of all African countries harbored African refugees in

1996

4 million African refugees residing in other Africannations in 1996

22% of all immigrants to African nations are forcedmigrants

For every refugee there are 4 more internally displaced

migrants Many non-economic forces underpin these

involuntary migrations: weak States, ethnicconflicts, environmental degradation and drought

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Latin American Perspectives onEthnic/Political Conflict

Political control continues to influencemigration Violence in Colombia and Guatemala continue to

push people to relative safety of cities

Consolidation of economic and political commandfunctions in metropolises has strengthened theirmigration attraction

Revitalization of metropolises as smallercities near megacities benefit fromcommunications and transportationimprovements Primacy declined 1990-2000 in 6 nations

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Asian Perspectives on Ethnic Factors No explicit discussion of forced migration.

Focus is on gendered migration expectations

Rising expectations by and for women:

More education and higher status but alsocontinued cultural expectation that daughters willsupport parents

Agricultural economic restructuring has reduced

female labor force opportunities for women inrural areas

Result: More female migrants remitting fromurban jobs in Thailand

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South African Perspectives onEthnic Influences

Apartheid built into South Africa a racially-basedlabor circulation Men could not bring families

Non-South Africans required to return every two years to

homelands Social and familial controls against female migration

Post-apartheid removed the racial constraints onmigration, but did not reduce circulation

More households have temporary labor migrants Female migration has increased

More rural households are receiving remittances

Insecure labor market dictates that more individualsmigrate and retain return to rural home as fall-back

option

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Queries re. Ethnic conflict and

African migrations How does ethnicity and ethnic conflict furtherconstrain and mold the influence of globaleconomic forces on international migration?

Which ethnic conflicts result in internally displacedrather than international refugees?

In what ways does post-industrial globalizationperpetuate ethnic inequalities established duringthe colonial and industrialization period ofmigration?

How does ethnic conflict mold beliefs aboutimmigration and immigration policies?

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Drought as another migrationforce

Asian perspective: Drought of 1999 pushesmany men back to Bangkok, even thoughemployment situation has not improved

South Africa: Can dramatic increase inremittance income in 1997-98 be related tothe drought associated with the 1997-98 El

Nino? Adepoju and Findley have noted drought as

a major regional destablizer in the Sahel,especially multi-year and severe droughts

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Queries regarding drought,

environment and African migration How are drought and environmental shocks

incorporated into our models of internationalmigration?

Which features of the global economy willaccentuate international migration during adrought/environmental crisis, and which will propelinternal displacements?

How are involuntary environmental migrantsunlike other international migrants e.g. periodicity,insertion into local economy, remittances,networks?

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Demographic Structures: Confoundersin the effects of ethnicity, drought, and

globalization Latin American and Asian perspectives:

Despite significant fertility declines in recent

decades, globalization maintains highpressure on rural communities to divestthemselves of their young. In Latin America, 33% of rural children

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Queries re. Demographics ofAfrican migrations

Fertility is high in many African nations. 16 African nations out of 17 which had not started the

fertility transition by 2000

African countries have the highest proportions of children

0-14 in 2000. What do Latin American and Asian perspectives tell

us about pressure for rural out-migration, giventhese demographic realities in Africa?

How will African demographic realities furtheraccentuate the impact of ethnicity andenvironmental vulnerability on migrations?

How will the HIV/AIDS epidemic further complicate

the influence of age structure on migrations?

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Migration Networks: All networkmembers may not be the same

For many Africans, ethnicity is primary for theconstruction of migrant networks. This will produceethnically segmented networks, thereby ethnicallysubdividing job, housing, information, and capitalnetworks, which in turn can further polarizecommunities and labor markets.

Migration networks may not perpetuate the same

migration. Indeed, the migration network may bemore important to support social and culturalopportunism. To enable the migrant to be ready toGo with the flow

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Asian and South AfricanPerspectives on Networks

In Asia networks are described as enablingmore women to engage in unsupervisedmigrations

In South Africa, the remittance income istangible evidence of the importance ofmaintaining migrant-home linkages

In both settings the concept of retaining ahome base with family at origin may be justas important as the network facilitatingmigration

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Queries on networks andinternational migration

How do networks alter the effect of globalization onAfrican migration patterns?

How are networks of internal and international

migrants linked: through their origin homes andcommunities? Through the labor market?

In what way do networks promote onwardmigrations and enable migrants to be

opportunists? How do networks facilitate the stabilization and

integration of internally displaced and refugees?

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State is only one influence onmigration: Migration as business

Adekanye highlights weak national governments aspart of the reason for high rates of conflict andforced migration in Africa

In the absence of a strong State, the private sectorhas a freer hand for influencing migration.

John Salt has an intriguing theory that internationalmigration can be viewed as a business, involvingboth private and public sectors, as well asconsumers, namely the migrants Big business manipulates the formal sector of the

dual/segmented labor market model

Big business also informally regulates migration in the

secondary sector of the dual labor market

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Queries on Immigration Policiesin the African Context

How can the international migration systembuild in not only the impact of the global

economy on labor migrations but also on

informal regulations and operations whichmay act contrary to the official immigration

policies of the State?

H

ow can greater consistency be achievedbetween private and governmental sector

influences on migrations, particularly

international migrations?

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Conclusions Doug Masseys overview and the perspectives of

the regional papers in this session provide a veryuseful starting point for our discussions this week.

I have tried to outline the questions that I think willhelp us all focus on the aspects of this meeting that

make it unique: Partnership that cuts across the usual migration and

urbanization disciplinary boxes

Partnership based in Africa that reaches out and

embraces global perspectives May we have energetic, passionate, and fruitful

discussions that advance that partnership on behalfof the millions of Africans who move in hopes of abetter life for themselves and their families.