+ All Categories
Home > Documents > FIRST QUARTER 2021

FIRST QUARTER 2021

Date post: 16-Oct-2021
Category:
Upload: others
View: 3 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
23
FIRST QUARTER 2021 EARNINGS WEBCAST
Transcript
Page 1: FIRST QUARTER 2021

FIRST QUARTER 2021EARNINGS WEBCAST

Page 2: FIRST QUARTER 2021

2

Highlight

Today’s Speakers

Alejandro Elizondo

IRO

José Carlos Pons

CFO

José de Jesús Valdez

CEO

Page 3: FIRST QUARTER 2021

3

I. Financial Performance

II. Alpek 2031 Bond

III. Guidance

Topics for Today’s Webcast

Page 4: FIRST QUARTER 2021

4

Highlight

Integrated PET MarginsMargins increased by 36% QoQ due to strong demand

69 62 64 73122 110

155 14082 78 83 78 68 81

208165 159

192

260

214

214

164

145196

227

172 175

249

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015

304

US$/Ton

201820162014 2017 2Q

277

1Q 3Q 1Q 2Q

330

382

310

3Q 4Q

PET

PTA

1Q4Q

227 223

266

324

370

227

275250 242

+36%

China

2019 2020

Asian Margins (Px / MEG to PET)

2021

Page 5: FIRST QUARTER 2021

5

+

Feedstock

Prices• Natural Gas price with two-week spike, reaching

levels as high as US$400/MMBtu at one point

• Average Propylene price increased to 73cpp

Operations • USGC producers impacted by lack of Power,

Natural Gas and/or Feedstocks

• All Alpek sites continued operating as normal

• Producers of feedstocks (Ethylene, PGP, MEG,

Styrene) & finished goods (NG, PP, EPS) offline

Demand • Demand continued to be high, drawing

inventories to low levels

Texas Polar Vortex

Margins • PP Margins increased to 32cpp in 1Q21

• Alpek able to commercialize Natural Gas to 3rd

party customers in México during polar vortex

=

+

Page 6: FIRST QUARTER 2021

6

Highlight

1Q21 Financial Highlights

• Record high overall volume for any first quarter of 1.2 million tons (+4% YoY) on track with Guidance

• Highest quarterly Reported EBITDA ever of US$324 million excluding Badwill effect and/or asset sales (Cogen)

• Strong performance continued in 1Q21 with Comparable EBITDA of US$203 million (+38% YoY) from record 1Q

volume and higher-than-expected margins

• Successfully issued 10-year U.S. $600 million bond with record low annual coupon (3.25%) & spread (200 bps)

• Dividend to shareholders of U.S. $126 million approved at Annual Shareholders’ Meeting to be paid in 2Q21

• Leverage improved to 1.6x as Net Debt remained at U.S. $1,219 million and LTM EBITDA increased

• EBITDA Guidance revised to U.S. $675 million based on strong 1Q21 results & improving industry margins

Page 7: FIRST QUARTER 2021

7

Highlight

967 9331,026 992 996

217176

234 256 234

1,248

1Q20 3Q202Q20

Polyester

4Q20 1Q21

P&C

1,1841,109

1,260 1,230

+4%

Volume Evolution

Alpek Sales Volume (KTon)

• PET volume YoY increase largely

due to resilience of strong post-

COVID-19 demand

• P&C volume increased YoY from

acquisition of NOVA’s

Expandable Styrenics business

(flat YoY excl. NOVA)

Page 8: FIRST QUARTER 2021

8

Highlight

Feedstock Costs

Crude Oil and Paraxylene NA Propylene Contract Price

38 37 3835

31

26

35

41

73

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1Q4Q 2Q2Q

cpp

1Q 3Q 3Q 4Q 1Q

+77%Brent

US$/Bbl

NA Px

Contract

US$/Ton

1,165

955

876

590

658

20

40

60

80

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

3Q2Q1Q 4Q 1Q 4Q2Q 3Q

937

1Q

1,077

685

891

+30%

Crude Oil (Brent) Px

+36%• Crude oil price increased 36% as

global economy continues to

recover, OPEC production quotas

enforced, and demand for refined

products continues to rise

• Paraxylene price rose (+30%) in

line with Crude Oil price increase

• Strong increase to Propylene

prices (+77%) caused by polar

vortex in U.S. Gulf Coast, though

beginning to normalize

2019 20202019 2020 20212021

Page 9: FIRST QUARTER 2021

9

Highlight

EBITDA Breakdown

94 81 89

50 66

97

58

63

184

17

123

17

Carry-forward

Effect

3

1Q21 Reported

EBITDA

1Q20 Comparable

EBITDA

4

4Q20 Comparable

EBITDA

1Q21 Comparable

EBITDA

Inventory

Adjustment

Others

P&C

Polyester

147 151

203

324

+35%

1Q21 EBITDA (US$M)

• Comparable EBITDA of US$203M

(+35% QoQ) in 1Q21

• Polyester Comp. EBITDA of

US$89M (+10% QoQ) from strong

margins & volume

• P&C Comp. EBITDA of US$97M

(+48% QoQ) from higher PP

margins due to polar vortex

• Positive Carry-forward &

Inventory Adjustment effect as Px

and Propylene prices increased

Page 10: FIRST QUARTER 2021

10

Highlight

Free Cash Flow Generation

324

192

67

4430

23 2

Net Debt

Dec’20

TaxesNWCEBITDA Financial

Expenses

OthersCAPEX Dividends Net Debt

Mar’21

1,1851,219

US$M

FCF: US-9M

• NWC of -US$192M due to feedstock

prices increase caused by crude oil

(Px) & polar vortex (Propylene)

• Financial expenses of -US$67M due

to one-time tender cost of Alpek’s

2022 Bond totaling -US$42M

• FCF of -US$9M in 1Q21 as strong

EBITDA was offset by NWC and

Financial Expenses

Page 11: FIRST QUARTER 2021

11

Highlight

Net Debt & Leverage

LTM EBITDA (US$M) Net Debt/EBITDA (Times)

850 821735 719

565

778

624 601657

3Q20

789

2Q204Q19 4Q20

769

1Q20

701

1Q21

1.61.7

1.91.7

2.1

1.6

1.7

1.9

2.02.0

1.9

4Q19 3Q201Q20 4Q202Q20

2.0

1Q21

1,330

1,436 1,428

1,2351,185 1,219

4Q19 4Q203Q201Q20 2Q20 1Q21

+3%

Net Debt (US$M)

Comp. EBITDA Net Debt / Comp. EBITDA

Page 12: FIRST QUARTER 2021

12

Alpek 2031 Bond Emission

Principal Amount US$600M

Maturity Feb. 2031 (10 Years)

Coupon 3.25% (-1.00% vs.’29 Bond)

Spread 200bps (-55bps vs. ’29 Bond)

US 10 Yr T. 1.28% (vs. ~1.68% on April 1)

Order Book US$5.4B (9.0x Over-subscribed)

Other NotesStrong participation from

ESG-dedicated funds

Page 13: FIRST QUARTER 2021

13

Highlight

Revised 2021 Guidance & Key Assumptions

Market

Financials

Revised ‘21

Guidance

Previous ‘21

Guidance2020

Change

(% vs. ‘20)

Crude Oil US$/Bbl 63 48 42 48

Asia PTA/PET Margin US$/Ton 285 245 269 6

MXN / USD (Avg.) MXN 21.1 21.1 21.5 (2)

Reported EBITDA US$M 750 561 565 33

Comparable EBITDA1 US$M 675 561 601 12

(1) Excludes inventory adjustments and carry-forward effects

Page 14: FIRST QUARTER 2021

14

Highlight

Q&A

José de Jesús Valdez

CEO

José Carlos Pons

CFO

Page 15: FIRST QUARTER 2021

APPENDIX

Page 16: FIRST QUARTER 2021

16

Highlight

111

74

179

201

324

147 149 154 151

203

1Q213Q201Q20 2Q20 4Q20

35%

EBITDA (US$M)

EBITDA Evolution

• 1Q21 Comparable EBITDA of

US$203M (+35% QoQ)

• Increase largely due to better

polyester margins, solid EPS

performance and one-time

benefits to PP margins & natural

gas commercialization from polar

vortex

• Reported EBITDA of US$324M up

(+193% YoY) due to better Comp.

EBITDA and positive inventory

adjustment & carry-forward

effects vs. 2020

Comp. EBITDA Reported EBITDA

US$35M

Badwill

Wilton

Page 17: FIRST QUARTER 2021

17

Highlight

Breakdown of Extraordinary Effects

2021 2020 Delta

M dls 1Q 1Q 4Q 1Q 4Q

Reported EBITDA 324 111 201 214 123

Inventory Adjustment (63) 17 (9) (80) (54)

Carry-Forward Effect (58) 20 (9) (78) (49)

Others - - (33) - 33

Comparable EBITDA 203 147 151 56 52

Page 18: FIRST QUARTER 2021

18

Highlight

Relevant References: Crude OilPrice increased during 1Q21 as quotas met & demand for refined products rose

Brent Crude Oil Price

99

52

7180

0

40

20

60

100

120

US$/Bbl

4244

54

6461

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Page 19: FIRST QUARTER 2021

19

Highlight

Relevant References: ParaxylenePx prices increased by 30% in line with Crude Oil price (+36%)

1,7081,635 1,641

1,382

992876

954

1,174 1,1651,077

955 937876

590658 685

891

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2017

US$/Ton

20122011 20142013 2015 2016 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q2018

2019

NA Px Contract Price

2020 2021

Page 20: FIRST QUARTER 2021

20

Highlight

NA Propylene Contract Price (PGP) NA Polypropylene Margin (PP to PGP)

12 1213

15

24

27

19

22 21

1516

17

22

32

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

13 3Q1Q16

cpp

12 1511 14 17 18 19 2Q 4Q 1Q

76

60

6971

39

34

45

54

37

31

26

35

41

73

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

3Q1311

cpp

1712 1614 15 18 19 4Q1Q 2Q 1Q

2020

Relevant References: Propylene & PolypropyleneIncrease in both PGP contract prices and PP margins due to polar vortex

2021 2020 2021

Page 21: FIRST QUARTER 2021

21

Highlight

For Additional InformationEmail: [email protected] / Phone: +52 (818) 748-1146

• 9 Years at Alfa/Alpek

• Previously held roles in Human Capital, Talent & Culture at Alfa and Axtel

• BA in International Relations from ITESM

Alejandra

Bustamante

IR Manager

[email protected]

• 10 Years at Alfa/Alpek

• Previously held roles as Director of Logistics & Procurement at Indelpro, Director of Energy Markets at

Alfa, and Project Leader at The Boston Consulting Group

• BS in Industrial Engineering from Cornell University and MBA from Stanford Graduate School of Business

Alejandro

Elizondo

IRO

[email protected]

Page 22: FIRST QUARTER 2021

22

Highlight

Disclaimer

This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, “forward-looking

statements”. By their nature, forward looking statements involve risks and

uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may

or may not occur in the future. The future results of Alpek, S.A.B. de C.V. and its

subsidiaries may differ from the results expressed in, or implied by the forward-

looking statements set out herein, possibly to a material degree.

Page 23: FIRST QUARTER 2021

FIRST QUARTER 2021EARNINGS WEBCAST


Recommended