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Global Futures& Foresight
First we do things differently...
David SmithChief Executive
Global Futures and ForesightCopyright © 2017 Global Futures and Foresight Limited
Global Futures& Foresight
David SmithChief Executive
Global Futures and ForesightCopyright © 2017 Global Futures and Foresight Limited
...then we do different things
Global Futures& Foresight
Innovation
48 Years
1810 1858Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener
Global Futures& Foresight
New approach to advice & service• 72% say improving
customer experience is top priority.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/shephyken/2017/01/07/10-customer-service-and-customer-experience-cx-trends-for-2017/#5da3c68275e5
http://www4.avaya.com/cala/comms/cem-spa/assets/25/img/ch4-article3-image.jpgCompanies lose $62bn due to poor customer service (US).
Global Futures& Foresight
Future of retail• Digital to unlock $3tn
in value over 10 years in the US.
• 20% to 25% of U.S. malls will close by 2022. Credit Suisse
http://time.com/money/4801225/malls-closing-2022-credit-suisse/ https://newsroom.accenture.com/news/retailers-and-consumer-goods-companies-could-unlock-2-95-trillion-in-value-over-the-next-decade-accenture-strategy-study-finds.htm
http://www.brianvellmure.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/future-of-retail-shooper-marketing.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Crossover• Amazon launches
a shoppable social network.
...and now sees the value of stores.
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-amazon-spark-social-network-works-2017-7
http://www.futureland.ae/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/amazongo.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Context for future advice• Engagement
technologies creates different virtual, physical & digital experiences.
• Technologies will bring personalisation and predictive analytics.
https://go.forrester.com/wp-content/uploads/Forrester-2017-Predictions.pdf
http://blog.neosperience.com/hs-fs/hub/411533/file-2255567076-jpg/digital_marketing_trends.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Global Futures& Foresight
With change comes risk• Root causes of declines in public companies’:
• 60% strategic risks.• 30% operational risks. • 10% financial risks.
Source: Society of Actuaries (2013) : Enterprise Risk Management: Looking Forward0
"the assumptions on which the organization has been built and is being run no longer fit reality.“ Peter Drucker
Digital models account for disappearance of half of the Fortune 500 since 2000.
Source: World Economic Forum, 2016
Global Futures& Foresight
1. Globalisation2. Technology3. Demographics & people4. Energy and Transport5. Changes in work 6. Consumption7. Environment
Mega trends
http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/
Global Futures& Foresightwww.watchblog.com Source:PopulationResearchBureauwww.prb.org
Global population growth
Global Futures& Foresight
“The size of the world economy will tripleover the next four decades as emerging-market economies wield increasing power”
“World GDP to double within two decades”
Global Futures& Foresight
Global middle class• In 5 years, 400m
people added to middle class
• 2/3 of the 4.9bn people to come from Asia-Pacific.
http://hotelmarketing.com/index.php/content/article/10_things_you_need_to_know_about_the_future_of_tourism
http://s213.photobucket.com/user/bujin_photos/media/_MG_8043.jpg.html
Global Futures& Foresight
Ageing populations
Percentage of Global population over 60
700m
1.9bn
Global Futures& Foresight
Global wealth’s silver liningBy 2020.• 40% of
consumption from over 65’s.
• Spending power of $12tn.BNP Paribas
http://bruegel.org/2017/04/embracing-the-silver-economy/
Global Futures& Foresight
Millenials• By 2020.
– Wealth of $24tn. – Due to inheritance, income
growth, & entrepreneurial activities.
• 87% say corporate success is not only financial.
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-investment-office/features/millennials.html
http://unothegateway.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/millennials-in-charge-640x302.png
Global Futures& Foresight
Global Urban Consumption• To 2030:
– 9 consumer groups generate 75% of growth.
• Top 3 = 50%:1. Developed economies retirees.2. China’s working age pop’n.3. N.America’s working age.
McKinsey
http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/urbanization/urban-world-the-global-consumers-to-watch?cid=other-eml-alt-mgi-mck-oth-1603
https://assets.weforum.org/project/image/small_8ypi0X77vqfCQITGhYtQmBRytgOXrsyqSnUNvx-VHCo.jpeg
Global Futures& Foresight
Automation revolution‘…happening 10 times faster and at 300 times the scale, or roughly 3,000 times the impact,’ of the Industrial Revolution.McKinsey
http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700761-after-many-false-starts-artificial-intelligence-has-taken-will-it-cause-mass
https://s.financesonline.com/uploads/2016/06/autom.jpg
Global Futures& ForesightChange is coming
TECHNOLOGY & COMMUNICATIONS
Global Futures& Foresight
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Global Futures& Foresight
• 54% are very cynical about new technology, with consumers stating:
‘business growth or greed/money are the real impetuses behind innovation.’ Edelman
http://www.brandingstrategyinsider.com/2016/01/lies-and-the-declining-trust-in-brands.html#.VuloreIrLIU
http://www.ethandeceuster.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/sparkle.jpg
Demonstrating customer value is essential to any digital transformation.
Global Futures& Foresight
Technological impact• By 2020 47% of revenue influenced by digital Forrester
• 87% believe digital tech will disrupt their industry.
Only 44% feel prepared. MIT Sloan
Global Futures& Foresight
Consumers are more disruptive than businesses
• Consumers’ technology means they will constantly be faster at adapting than organisations.
https://www.digitalpulse.pwc.com.au/eight-trends-driving-digital-innovation-consumers-savvy-organisations/
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=disruptive+consumers&espv=2&biw=1440&bih=775&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0CAcQ_AUoAmoVChMI0bvB0bSzyAIVSFsUCh3WmgIp#tbm=isch&q=consumers+technology&imgrc=4ogzWkRcNiyioM%3A
Global Futures& Foresight
A new economy
Digital tech – including automation- could render 40% of companies in the world today irrelevant in 10 years.
http://www.businessinsider.com/former-cisco-ceo-500-billion-connected-devices-by-2025-2015-11
http://chrisriddell.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/RC_BusinessDisruption.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
First we do things differently
Global Futures& Foresight
Then we do different things
Global Futures& Foresight
DisintermediationDigital Platforms• Music– itunes – Spotify
• Hotels– AirBnB
• Retail– Ebay, Amazon, Bought by many.
• Travel Agency– Trip Adviser – book hotels/not packages
• Lending/borrowing money– Zopa – direct to lender/cut out banks
• Insurance– Friendsurance & Guevara - P2P insurance
• Real Estate– Purplebricks, emoov, Tepilo, Zoopla
... And Uber for taxis of course
Global Futures& Foresight
Three horizons
Global Futures& Foresight
Horizon 1 Technologies maturing now
• Social• Telematics• Internet of Things• Wearables• Big data and analytics• Artificial Intelligence• AR and VR• Avatars• 3D printing• Blockchain• Zero UI
Global Futures& Foresight
A.I. interfaces replace
smartphones by 2020
Semantic searchnatural queries, past behaviour and multiple data points.
... and Smart Agents and Virtual Personal Assistants handle 40% of mobile interactions
Heralds the end of the Apps economy…
Global Futures& Foresight
The end of the smartphone era?
• 85% say wearable electronic assistants common in 5 yrs.
• Less need to touch a screen. • 50% say holographic screens
mainstream within 5 years.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/ai-will-replace-smartphones-within-5-years-ericsson-survey-suggests
https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*RDB7q2UG9KdBIANWiA0kgA.jpeg
Global Futures& Foresight
Conversational commerce• By 2021 - Virtual
assistant installation exceeds 7.5bn.
• Could bots be the future commerce platform?– Conversational
commerce?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelarthur/2017/07/19/conversational-commerce-ebay-ai-chatbot/#464040d81efbhttps://betanews.com/2017/05/19/digital-assistants-outnumber-people/
http://68.media.tumblr.com/2cbe391b009d24c729bc800688ac42c0/tumblr_inline_o5ubq0y4Hv1roucwv_500.png
Global Futures& Foresight
“When you put on the goggles, it’s different from anything I have ever experienced in my life,”
Mark Zuckerberg
Global Futures& Foresight
“When you put on the goggles, it’s different from anything I have ever experienced in my life,”
Mark Zuckerberg
Global Futures& Foresight
“When you put on the goggles, it’s different from anything I have ever experienced in my life,”
Mark Zuckerberg
Global Futures& Foresight
Zero UI: computing without screens
• 50% of paid searches could be voice activated by 2020.
• New user experiences need:‒ A new set of design principles. ‒ A new marketing paradigm. ‒ Understanding are customers
involved at all stages.
https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/301084/half-of-paid-searches-voice-activated-by-2020.html
Global Futures& Foresight
Next phase of mobile
• AR and VR could form a $150bn market, disrupting mobile by 2020.
• 1.3bn mobile AR apps by 2019.
http://techcrunch.com/2015/04/06/augmented-and-virtual-reality-to-hit-150-billion-by-2020/http://www.wareable.com/ar/13-billion-mobile-ar-apps-in-use-by-2019-1015
http://www.overdigital.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/augmented_reality2.png
Global Futures& Foresight
Mobility in everything
• By 2020 40% of wearables are forecast to have evolved into a viable alternative to smartphones.
https://wtvox.com/2015/06/consumers-expect-wearables-to-provide-full-healthit/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/internet-of-things-opportunities-and-challenges/
Global Futures& Foresight
Ambient tech• By 2025• The global wearable
market to reach $22.3bn.
• By 2028 – 1 bn AR and VR.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170227005663/en/Enterprise-Wearable-Market-Reach-22-Billion-2025http://www.networkworld.com/article/3181889/consumer-electronics/how-ar-and-vr-can-reach-a-billion-users-before-2028.html
Global Futures& Foresight
Internet of Things• Links people, process,
data and objects.
• £12tn value by 2022.• 100 x consumer data.
http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/docs/innov/IoE_Economy_Insights.pdf
https://developer.ibm.com/bluemix/2015/11/23/future-of-cognitive-computing/http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/if-you-think-big-datas-challenges-are-tough-now/
Channels a blend of AR, VR, online, IoT, haptic and physical
Global Futures& Foresight
Social becomes architecture• Social media could form
new retail platforms.• Adviser, search engine
and booking agent.• Personalise the
experience based on your circumstances.
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/the_future_of_the_internet_is_converged_services.php
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2017/04/13/fashion/13STORE/13STORE-master768.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
The mobile customer in context• Where am I?• What do I want?• Who’s around me?• Where am I going?• What would help me?
– Where– What– Who
Global Futures& Foresight
Data• By 2020
– Digital universe grows to 507zb.
• The data-as-a-service business model is on the horizon.
https://www.meritalk.com/articles/year-2025-an-age-of-machine-learning-and-data-on-demand/http://www.digitalistmag.com/executive-research/bring-your-robot-to-work
https://2s7gjr373w3x22jf92z99mgm5w-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/shutterstock_streaming_data_diagram_-Toria.jpg
The speed of analytics to multiply 30-fold by 2030. SAP
http://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2016/03/15/17-predictions-about-the-future-of-big-data-everyone-should-read
Global Futures& Foresight
Data is the life-blood of commerce• 50% say they don’t
have the digital skills they need.
• Only 30% of the value in data has been captured.
https://hbr.org/2017/07/nearly-half-of-companies-say-they-dont-have-the-digital-skills-they-needhttp://www.business-standard.com/article/international/data-storage-demand-to-multiply-four-fold-by-2025-117070500271_1.html
https://ncit.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/styles/main-image/public/service/photo/data-analytics-img.jpg?itok=yXca3DgC
Global Futures& Foresight
Data implications‘By 2027 a significant proportion of personal income is likely to derive from the data people generate.’ Nicole Immorlica, Microsoft
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinmurnane/2016/12/07/future-tech-seventeen-microsoft-researchers-on-the-technology-of-2017-and-2027/#7a744a7c160e
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/teradata/files/2014/11/monetize1.jpg?width=960
An economy based on generating data through daily living results in a redistribution of wealth
Global Futures& Foresight
Data implications• Shifts how consumers find
products.• Create opportunities for
‘trusted advisers’.• Armed with data insights,
consumers become ‘immune’ to traditional marketing.
http://www.afr.com/business/media-and-marketing/big-data-will-shift-the-way-consumers-find-products-says-deloittes-john-hagel-20160731-gqhz24
http://j-arellano.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/trusted-advisor.jpg
3 billion more people online 2016-2020
Global Futures& Foresight
Digital transformations’ achilles heel?• Only 25% of companies
treat cyber-risk as a significant risk.
• Data breaches expected to total $2.1tn in 2019.
• Brand trust could easily be destroyed.
http://www.digitalistmag.com/executive-research/future-of-cybersecurity-trust-as-competitive-advantage
https://betanews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Broken-trust-600x397.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
3D PrintingThe next trillion $ industry
• Airbus - 3D printed planes by 2050. • First “printed homes” built. • Commercial buildings will follow.• Transform manufacturing, insurance, pharmacy
distribution, logistics, retailing, food, surgery …
Source: Futurist Speaker, http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2012/05/transforming-the-future-of-the-insurance-industry/?goback=%2Egde_145854_member_118622940
Global Futures& Foresight
3D printed merchandise• 3D printers:
– Lowe’s uses technology to offer items no longer produced.
• Eg: door knobs and fixtures,
https://www.constellationr.com/content/nrf16-store-strikes-back
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-ID899_LOWES3_E_20150429135714.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles
Global Futures& Foresight
Transport options of the future
• It could be 10 times cheaper to take electric robo-taxis than to own a car by 2030.
http://bit.ly/2rB2Th9
https://media.treehugger.com/assets/images/2011/10/robo_taxi_passengers.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Horizon 2 Technologies maturing within 10 years
• Holographics• Automation• Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles• Cognitive computing• Parallel Computing• Instant language translation• Haptic technology• Humanoid Robots• Vocal health diagnostics via ‘devices’• Next generation neuropharmacology
Global Futures& Foresight
New co-workers
Acroid 1 Shakira 2 Clooney 1
Global Futures& Foresight
Decentralized Autonomous Corporations
• Fully automated companies.
• Raise huge sums of money without traditional intermediaries.
http://qz.com/695499/is-the-future-of-business-a-company-without-workers-managers-or-a-ceo/
https://webonanza.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/hands_code.jpg?w=529&h=332&crop=1
The ROI of an automated organisation could be 3-10 times the cost.
http://bit.ly/2rIJRoS
Global Futures& Foresight
Horizon 3 Emerging technologies of 10yrs+
• Quantum computing• Prescriptive analytics• Smart dust• Programmable material• Neuroprosthetics• Brain-to-computer interfaces• Brain-to-brain interfaces• Geoengineering• Microscale 3D printing• Anti ageing interventions
Global Futures& Foresight
Global Futures& Foresight
Customer experience• 86% of marketers say
they will own the end-to-end customer experience by 2020.
• Only 5% of marketers say they can adapt and predict the customer journey.
http://www.business2community.com/customer-experience/86-marketers-will-customer-experience-2020-heres-need-know-01589610#c6M8IdTpewB4DURA.97http://www.the-future-of-commerce.com/2016/07/11/personalization-marketing-strategy/
https://pixabay.com/en/matrix-network-data-exchange-1013612/
Global Futures& Foresight
Positive CX essential
89% of consumers will jump straight into the arms of a competitor when they have a negative experience.
https://medium.com/brand-experience/whitepaper-the-future-of-retail-2710ec75f088#.1subdpem9
http://d3olfrdxinh85x.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/5-tips-for-communicating-with-unhappy-customers.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Data and trust
https://www.cognizant.com/perspectives/return-on-trust-the-new-business-performance-indicator
2/3 of consumers believe their date is valuable and most expect some value in exchange.
Global Futures& Foresight
Consumer care experience
82% of Asian execs expect on-demand customer service to be available by 2020.
https://www.eiuperspectives.economist.com/strategy-leadership/service-demand/infographic/service-demand-infographic
http://www.cleverbusinesswebsites.co.uk/images/resources/business-thinking/Customer_Service_today_adn_future.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Social customer engagement• Of Social Media:
– 63% of Millennials use it to update brand knowledge.
– 46% for online purchases. – 86% of B2B use it during the
purchasing process.• Social main channel for
engaging customers by 2020.
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/241268http://www.digitalistmag.com/executive-research/live-business-live-customer-experiences-for-the-digital-economy
http://www.business2community.com/customer-experience/86-marketers-will-customer-experience-2020-heres-need-know-01589610#Ev8EqUXkCqQcPt6P.99
http://cdn.rightoninteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/customer-engagement.png
Global Futures& Foresight
Distributed social video• By 2019
– 85% of net traffic via video
– 50% of commerce via mobile.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveolenski/2017/05/15/with-mikmak-latest-move-brands-can-expedite-path-to-purchase-instagram-snapchat/#44611fa445ee
Global Futures& Foresight
Social VR• 75% to use
social VR apps at least once a week.
• Fusing of the online and physical.
https://www.fastcompany.com/40421014/survey-two-thirds-of-people-want-vr-to-be-social
http://img.sxsw.com/2015/spg_images/IAP43701.pnghttps://vrscout.com/news/facebook-oculus-avatars-social-vr/
Global Futures& Foresight
AI to shape customer interactions• Only 28% of UK CEOs
considering the impact of AI on their businesses.
• By 2025 AI could be powering 95% of all customer interactions.
http://pwc.to/2jxcRuMhttp://contact-centres.com/ai-will-power-95-customer-interactions-2025-says-servion/
http://www.itnewsafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/artificial_intelligence_benefits_risk-300x225.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Personalisation• 89% of millennials
want personalistion when they visit stores.
• Only 18% see it from retailers today.
http://banknxt.com/59119/happy-miles/http://www.slideshare.net/FITCH_design/retail2020-pdf
http://cached.imagescaler.hbpl.co.uk/resize/scaleWidth/450/offlinehbpl.hbpl.co.uk/news/TIC/Eventprofs_Chat_Personalisation-20160519095727201.jpg
New models and markets
Global Futures& Foresight
Value based pricing• Payment according
to use and circumstances, rather than flat-rate pricing, becoming the norm.– i.e Netflix and Spotify.
https://marketingweek.imgix.net/content/uploads/2015/06/Product_personalisation.png?auto=compress,format,&crop=faces,entropy,edges&fit=crop&q=60&w=980&h=600
Global Futures& Foresight
Flexible models
• By 2019, 50%+ of all industries will price & package their offerings as services with flexible pricing models.
http://bit.ly/2qQUZ2J
http://www.avestatechnologies.com/img/business-model.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Sharing economy• By 2025:
– UK’s 5 key sharing economy sectors grow from £7bn to £140bn
http://bit.ly/29bVFYK
https://www.thersa.org/globalassets/images/blogs/sharing-economy-group-people-graphic-600.jpg
X20
Global Futures& Foresight
Tomorrow’s consumer: an algorithm
• Business algorithms will be making the offers, while consumer algorithms will be making the buying decisions.
http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20130708113252-17102372-the-consumer-of-the-future-will-be-an-algorithm
http://www.xcubelabs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/xSoMoBi2-01-copy.png
Global Futures& Foresight
Post sales service ripe for automation• 60% of contact centre
leaders believe calls will fall over 5 years.
• 40% say it may fall to zero over the next 10 years. McKinsey
https://www.mckinsey.it/idee/winning-the-expectations-game-in-customer-care
https://www.mycustomer.com/sites/default/files/styles/banner/public/artificial%20intelligence%20customer%20service.jpg?itok=ImIZQ8r2
Global Futures& Foresight
The rise of the trusted advisor• Convergence of advanced
analytics and context-specific data.
• Proactive recommendations, supporting the client’s goals.
http://techonomy.com/2016/12/a-future-of-trusted-advisors-loyalty-to-the-customer-not-customer-loyalty/
http://lakeforestgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Trusted-Advisor.jpg
Not just meeting expressed needs.
Global Futures& Foresight
Advice subscription packages• A monthly fee acts as a
gateway to a more direct and personal advice service.
• A paid-for starter service is not that far-fetched –consider Netflix.
http://citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/news/why-a-monthly-fee-will-make-more-people-pay-for-advice/a991131
https://lemonstand.com/resources/ls2-production-website/images/subscriptions/FlexibleSubscriptionBillingPlans.png?1498688505
Global Futures& Foresight
Sales (advice) as a Service• Pepper (a robot)
starts a conversation and assist you in buying products.
• In 2020, the first stores could open with this service.
http://www.the-future-of-commerce.com/2016/09/28/in-2020-customer-experience-will-look-like-this/
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/kCFYw8mIqcc/maxresdefault.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Self service• Many customers will pay
more for convenience.– 20% according to HBR
study.• 70% of consumers
expect self-service for handling questions and complaints.
https://www.salesforce.com/blog/2017/05/self-service-future-customer-service.htmlhttps://www.fastcompany.com/3013177/why-the-future-of-customer-service-is-self-service
https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/AAEAAQAAAAAAAAhWAAAAJDc1OWI3MzMzLTkyMTAtNGI2Zi1iNDIxLTY0YTJiMGI4ZmJkNA.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Proactive XS is the new black• Leverage the IoT and
predictive analytics.• Increase customer
satisfaction by ensuring service levels are met.
• Machine learning to provide contextual and effective customer service.
http://www.digitalistmag.com/customer-experience/2017/06/12/proactive-customer-service-is-new-black-05138987
https://www.mycustomer.com/sites/default/files/styles/banner/public/istock_hong_li_social_service.jpg?itok=zZAWnA9g
Global Futures& Foresight
Proactive advice• Faster than real-time• 51% of consumers expect
that by 2020 companies will anticipate their needs and make relevant suggestions.
https://www.salesforce.com/blog/2016/12/consumers-want-more-personalized-marketing.html
https://c1.sfdcstatic.com/content/dam/blogs/us/August2015/fast.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Digital consumers equal disruption
• Digital models account for disappearance of half of Fortune 500 since 2000.
• We need to be able to learn blindingly fast and produce with agility.
Source: World Economic Forum, 2016, Bloomberg, 2014,
http://robllewellyn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/digital-business-model-1024x597.jpg
Global Futures& Foresight
Future business models
‘Future winners will actively disrupt current business models, including their own.’
WEFhttps://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/06/whats-the-future-of-pharmaceuticals/
Global Futures& Foresight
If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead
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