0

Fiscal Monitor Incorporating the Exchequer Statement

January 2020

Prepared by the Economics Division

Department of Finance

finance.gov.ie

1

Contents

Summary 2

Revenue 3

2.1 Direct Taxes 3

2.2 Indirect Taxes 3

2.3 Capital Taxes 3

2.4 Other Taxes 3

2.5 Non-Tax Revenue 4

2.6 Capital Receipts 4

Expenditure 7

3.1 Gross Voted Expenditure 7

3.2 Net Voted Expenditure 7

3.3 Non-Voted Expenditure 8

3.4 Debt Servicing Costs 8

Appendices 9

4.1 Exchequer Statement 9

4.2 Analytical Exchequer Statement 13

4.3 Analysis of Taxation Receipts 14

4.4 Analysis of Net Voted Expenditure 15

4.5 Analysis of Gross Voted Expenditure 16

4.6 Exchequer Borrowing Requirement 2003-2019 17

All figures in this document are provisional. Final figures, as audited by the Comptroller and

Auditor General, will be available in the Finance and Appropriations Accounts 2020.

Rounding may affect totals throughout this document.

2

Summary

An Exchequer surplus of €1,666 million was recorded to end-

January 2020. This compares to a surplus of €1,643 million in the same

month last year. The €23 million year-on-year improvement is driven by

an increase in tax revenues, and somewhat offset by increases in both

current and capital voted expenditure.

Tax revenues of €5,907 million in January were ahead year-on-year by

10.0%, or €537 million.

Total net voted expenditure in the month, at €4,575 million, was up €360

million, or 8.5% in year-on-year terms, comprised of a 6.6% increase in

current spending and a 43.8% increase in capital spending.

Combined receipts from non-tax revenue and capital receipts of €995

million were down €85 million year-on-year.

Non-voted expenditure of €661 million increased year-on-year by €69

million, or 11.7%.

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Total Taxes

Income Tax

VAT

Corporation Tax

Excise Duties

Other

€ millions

Tax Receipts in January 2020

2020 outturn

3

Revenue

Tax revenues of €5,907 million were collected in January. This was up 10.0%, or €537 million, on 2019. Combined non-tax revenue and capital resources were €995 million, bringing total Exchequer revenues to €6,902 million, which represents a 7.0% or €452 million annual increase.

2.1 Direct Taxes

Income Tax receipts of €2,198 million were collected in-month, up on the 2019 performance by €315 million, or 16.7%.

Corporation Tax returned €116 million for the month or €218 million more than this period last year. It should be noted that January 2019 yielded a net negative total following repayments.

2.2 Indirect Taxes

Excise Duty receipts of €512 million were collected in January which was ahead of the 2019 performance by €48 million, or 10.4%.

January is a VAT due month and the largest collection month of the year for this tax head. Receipts of €2,702 million were €28 million, or 1.0% behind 2019.

2.3 Capital Taxes

Stamp Duty receipts of €144 million were collected in January, which was up year-on-year by €3 million.

Capital Gains Tax receipts for the month of €68 million were €5 million down on last year.

Capital Acquisitions Tax receipts of €23 million were collected in January, €9 million up on last year.

2.4 Other Taxes

Motor Tax receipts of €91 million were collected in January, which was down on the 2019 performance by €4 million.

Customs receipts of €24 million were collected in January, €3 million down on last year.

4

2.5 Non-Tax Revenue

Non-tax revenue to end-January amounted to €10 million, down €344 million on 2019. This annual change is mainly attributable to a non-recurring January 2019 repayment from the Paymaster General.

2.6 Capital Receipts

Capital receipts to end-January amounted to €985 million, up €260 million on 2019 as a result of technical loan repayments. These repayments benefit the Exchequer Balance but not the General Government Balance.

5

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

€m

illio

ns

Total Exchequer Tax Receipts

Jan-19 Jan-20

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

€m

illio

ns

Income Tax Receipts

Jan-19 Jan-20

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

€m

illio

ns

Corporation Tax Receipts

Jan-19 Jan-20

6

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

€m

illio

ns

VAT Receipts

Jan-19 Jan-20

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

€m

illio

ns

Excise Receipts

Jan-19 Jan-20

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

€m

illio

ns

Other Tax Receipts

Jan-19 Jan-20

7

Expenditure

Exchequer expenditure in January 2020 totalled €5,236 million, consisting

of net voted and non-voted expenditure of €4,575 million and €661 million

respectively.

3.1 Gross Voted Expenditure

Total gross voted expenditure this year of €5,634 million was 9.7%,

or €499 million, ahead of 2019.

Gross voted current expenditure this year of €5,313 million was

8.2%, or €401 million, ahead of 2019.

Gross voted capital expenditure this year of €322 million was

43.8%, or €98 million, ahead of 2019.

3.2 Net Voted Expenditure

Total net voted expenditure this year of €4,575 million was 8.5%, or

€360 million, ahead of 2019.

Net voted current expenditure this year of €4,253 million was 6.6%,

or €262 million, ahead of 2019.

Net voted capital expenditure this year of €322 million was 43.8%,

or €98 million, ahead of 2019.

8

3.3 Non-Voted Expenditure

Non-voted current expenditure, excluding debt servicing costs, was €472 million to end-January, up €89 million year-on-year, or 23.3%.

3.4 Debt Servicing Costs

Exchequer debt servicing costs in January were €189 million. This compares to €209 million in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of €20 million, or 9.6%.

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500

€ million

End-January Gross Voted Current Expenditure Year-on-Year Change

Total Other Education and Skills Health Employment Affairs & Social Protection

0

50

100

150

200

250

€m

illio

n

Debt Servicing Year-on-Year Comparison

2019 Outturn 2020 Outturn

9

Appendices

4.1 Exchequer Statement - End-January 2020

1 January to 31 January 2019

1 January to 31 January 2020

Receipts and Expenditure - Current €000 €000

Receipts

Tax Revenue Note 1 5,369,880 5,906,823

Non-Tax Revenue Note 2 354,273 10,076

Total 5,724,153 5,916,899

Expenditure

Voted (Departmental Expenditure Voted Annually by the Dáil)

Note 4 (3,991,060) (4,253,102)

Non-Voted Non-discretionary Expenditure charged directly on the Central Fund

Note 5 (592,073) (661,355)

Total

(4,583,133) (4,914,457)

Surplus / (Deficit) on Current Account 1,141,020 1,002,442

Receipts and Expenditure - Capital

Capital Receipts

Total Note 3 725,538 985,229

Expenditure

Voted (Departmental Expenditure Voted Annually by the Dáil)

Note 4 (223,620) (321,646)

Surplus / (Deficit) on Capital Account 501,918 663,583

EXCHEQUER SURPLUS / (DEFICIT) 1,642,938 1,666,024

Source and Application of Funds

Total (Borrowing) / Repayment Note 7 (7,557,039) (10,336,929)

Total Increase / (Decrease) in Exchequer Deposits and Other Balances

Note 8 9,199,977 12,002,954

10

Note 1 Tax Revenue 2019 2020

€000 €000

Tax Head Customs 26,900 23,800

Excise Duty 463,855 511,968

Capital Gains Tax 72,599 67,571

Capital Acquisitions Tax 14,467 23,180

Stamps 140,968 143,626

Income Tax 1,883,147 2,197,999

Corporation Tax (102,006) 115,914

Value Added Tax 2,729,975 2,701,541

Unallocated Tax Receipts 45,055 29,989

Motor Tax 94,920 91,235

Total 5,369,880 5,906,823

Note 2 Non-Tax Revenue 2019 2020

€000 €000

Interest on Loans Other Advances 161 164

Other Receipts

Property Registration Authority Fees 6,950 6,450

Motoring Fines 648 0

Other Receipts collected by Departments etc. 85,855 462

Miscellaneous 260,659 3,000

Total 354,273 10,076

Note 3 Capital Receipts 2019 2020

€000 €000

Loan Repayments FEOGA Intervention 725,000 750,000

Repayment of loans to Insurance Compensation Fund 0 50,000

Repayment of advances to supply account section 4 Appropriation Act 2018

0 185,000

Other Capital Receipts

Miscellaneous Capital Receipts 538 229

Total 725,538 985,229

11

Note 5 Non-Voted Current Expenditure 2019 2020

€000 €000

Service of National Debt Interest (178,883) (158,574)

Other Debt Management Expenses (30,217) (30,508)

Other Non-Voted Expenditure

Contribution to EU Budget (340,957) (402,781)

Election Expenses (155) (5,858)

Payments to Political Parties under the Electoral Acts

(2,208) (2,610)

Salaries, Pensions and Allowances (3,303) (3,566)

Oireachtas Commission (9,198) (11,861)

IDA & ADF - Payments under Development Banks Acts, 2005

(26,460) (29,912)

Pensions Insolvency Payment (Amendment) Scheme 2011

(420) (401)

Payments under Credit Institutions (Financial Support) Act 2008

(98) 0

Securities Market Programme related payment 0 (14,890)

Payments to DSP under S48B of Pensions Act 1990

(174) (395)

Total (592,073) (661,355)

Note 4 Voted Departmental Expenditure (Current and Capital) 2019 2020

€000 €000

Vote Group

Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (114,958) (141,261)

Culture, Heritage and the Gaeltacht (16,665) (18,066)

Communications, Climate Action and the Environment

(20,216) (25,100)

Defence (68,744) (70,270)

Education and Skills (851,429) (1,097,180)

Business, Enterprise and Innovation (52,579) (61,325)

Housing, Planning and Local Government (77,594) (153,222)

Finance Group (39,088) (44,964)

Foreign Affairs and Trade (47,949) (55,623)

Health (1,393,079) (1,301,240)

Justice Group (205,427) (231,075)

Employment Affairs and Social Protection (947,699) (980,357)

Taoiseach's Group (incl Legal Votes) (14,376) (15,116)

Transport, Tourism and Sport (106,640) (101,575)

Public Expenditure and Reform (69,906) (62,089)

Children and Youth Affairs (162,050) (188,291)

Rural & Community Development (26,281) (27,994)

Total (4,214,680) (4,574,748)

12

Note 7 Source and Application of Funds - (Borrowing) / Repayments 2019 2020

€000 €000

Borrowing from Min. Funds (27,241) (22,110)

Irish Government Bonds (4,255,123) (3,952,457)

Short Term Paper (3,406,082) (6,215,837)

SPEM Surplus (Non NTMA) 176,727 (89,365)

State Saving Schemes (45,321) (57,160)

Total (7,557,039) (10,336,929)

Note 8 Source and Application of Funds - Increase / (Decrease) in Exchequer Deposits and Other Balances

2019 2020

€000 €000

Inc/(Dec) in Exchequer Balance 9,202,618 11,841,405

Inc/(Dec) in Deposits, Notes & Treasury Bills (2,641) 161,549

Total 9,199,977 12,002,954

Note 6 Non-Voted Capital Expenditure

13

4.2 Analytical Exchequer Statement - End-January 2020

End-Jan

2020 Outturn

End-Jan

2019 OutturnY-on-Y €m Y-on-Y %

REVENUE1. Tax Revenue and Appropriations-in-Aid (A-in-As) 6,967 6,290 676 10.8%

- Tax Revenue 5,907 5,370 537 10.0%

Income tax 2,198 1,883 315 16.7%

VAT 2,702 2,730 -28 -1.0%

Excise duties 512 464 48 10.4%

Corporation tax 116 -102 218 213.6%

Stamp duties 144 141 3 1.9%

Motor tax 91 95 -4 -3.9%

Customs 24 27 -3 -11.5%

Capital gains tax 68 73 -5 -6.9%

Capital acquisitions tax 23 14 9 60.2%

Other 30 45 -15 -33.4%

- A-in-As 1,060 920 139 15.1%

Fund receipts ( PRSI ) - see memo items 927 760 167 22.0%

Fund receipts (NTF) - see memo items 0 47 -47 -100.0%

Other A-in-As (inc. Departmental Balances) 133 114 19 17.0%

2. Other Revenues 10 355 -345 -97.1%

- Non-tax Revenue 10 354 -344 -97.2%

Other 10 354 -344 -97.2%

- Capital Resources 0 1 0 -57.4%

Other 0 1 0 -57.4%

(A) REVENUE 6,977 6,645 332 5.0%

EXPENDITURE

1. Current Primary 5,815 5,324 491 9.2%

- Gross Voted Current 5,313 4,911 401 8.2%

Employment Affairs and Social Protection 1,924 1,723 201 11.7%

Health 1,292 1,384 -92 -6.6%

Education and Skills 1,062 871 191 21.9%

Other 1,034 934 101 10.8%

- Non-Voted Current Primary 502 413 89 21.6%

Debt management expenses 31 30 0 1.0%

Oireachtas Commission 12 9 3 29.0%

EU Budget Contribution 403 341 62 18.1%

Other 57 33 25 75.3%

2. Capital

- Gross Voted Capital1

322 224 98 43.8%

Transport, Tourism and Sport 43 21 21 99.7%

Education and Skills 56 35 21 59.7%

Housing, Planning and Local Government Group 53 30 23 78.3%

Other 169 137 32 23.4%

3. Interest on National Debt 159 179 -20 -11.4%

(B) EXPENDITURE 6,295 5,727 568 9.9%

681 918 -237 -25.8%

Non general government impacting transactions

Revenue - Capital Resources 985 725 260 35.9%

Feoga 750 725 25 3.4%

Supply account 185 0 185 100.0%

Other 50 0 50 100.0%

Expenditure - Non Voted Current 0 0 0 127.0%

Other 0 0 0 127.0%

985 725 260 35.9%

(E) = (C+D) EXCHEQUER BALANCE 1,666 1,643 23 1.4%

Memo items

Exchequer primary balance 1,824 1,822 2 0.1%Excess PRSI receipts over expenditure 102 163 -61 -37.3%Excess NTF receipts over expenditure 0 15 -15 -100.0%

Notes

1 The main transactions with no general government impact have been removed from the first section of this document. Their removal

allows better visibility of the day-to-day receipts into and expenditure from the Exchequer account.

(C) = (A-B) Balance excluding transactions with

no general government impact 2

(D) Transactions with no general government

Rounding may affect totals

14

4.3 Analysis of Taxation Receipts – End-January 2020

Year-on-Year Performance - Cumulative Year-on-Year Performance - Monthly

Exchequer Tax Receipts End-January 2020 Outturn

€m

End-January 2019 Outturn

€m

Y-on-Y Change

€m

Y-on-Y Change %

End-January 2020 Outturn

€m

End-January 2019 Outturn €m

Y-on-Y Change

€m

Y-on-Y Change %

Income Tax (including USC) 2,198 1,883 315 16.7% 2,198 1,883 315 16.7%

VAT 2,702 2,730 -28 -1.0% 2,702 2,730 -28 -1.0%

Corporation Tax 116 -102 218 213.6% 116 -102 218 213.6%

Excise 512 464 48 10.4% 512 464 48 10.4%

Stamps 144 141 3 1.9% 144 141 3 1.9%

Capital Gains Tax 68 73 -5 -6.9% 68 73 -5 -6.9%

Capital Acquisitions Tax 23 14 9 60.2% 23 14 9 60.2%

Customs 24 27 -3 -11.5% 24 27 -3 -11.5%

Levies 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 -

Motor Tax 91 95 -4 -3.9% 91 95 -4 -3.9%

Unallocated Tax Deposits 30 45 -15 - 30 45 -15 -33.4%

Total 5,907 5,370 537 10.0% 5,907 5,370 537 10.0%

Note: Rounding may affect totals

15

4.4 Analysis of Net Voted Expenditure – End-January 2020

Source: Department of Public Expenditure and Reform.

MINISTERIAL VOTE GROUP

Year-on-Year

Variance

%

AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND THE MARINE 114,958 141,261 26,303 22.9%

Current 72,318 85,888 13,570 18.8%

Capital 42,640 55,373 12,733 29.9%

CULTURE, HERITAGE AND THE GAELTACHT 16,665 18,066 1,401 8.4%

Current 14,186 15,961 1,775 12.5%

Capital 2,479 2,105 -374 -15.1%

CHILDREN AND YOUTH AFFAIRS 162,050 188,291 26,241 16.2%

Current 161,551 187,413 25,862 16.0%

Capital 499 878 379 -

COMMUNICATIONS, CLIMATE ACTION AND ENVIRONMENT 20,216 25,100 4,884 24.2%

Current 10,438 13,220 2,782 26.7%

Capital 9,778 11,880 2,102 21.5%

DEFENCE 68,744 70,270 1,526 2.2%

Current 67,517 63,764 -3,753 -5.6%

Capital 1,227 6,506 5,279 -

EDUCATION & SKILLS 851,429 1,097,180 245,751 28.9%

Current 816,157 1,040,720 224,563 27.5%

Capital 35,272 56,460 21,188 60.1%

BUSINESS, ENTERPRISE & INNOVATION 52,579 61,325 8,746 16.6%

Current 22,547 26,947 4,400 19.5%

Capital 30,032 34,378 4,346 14.5%

HOUSING, PLANNING & LOCAL GOVERNMENT 77,594 153,222 75,628 -

Current 47,687 99,900 52,213 -

Capital 29,907 53,322 23,415 -

FINANCE 39,088 44,964 5,876 15.0%

Current 38,741 44,346 5,605 14.5%

Capital 347 618 271 78.1%

FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE 47,949 55,623 7,674 16.0%

Current 47,915 55,411 7,496 15.6%

Capital 34 212 178 -

HEALTH 1,393,079 1,301,240 -91,839 -6.6%

Current 1,369,391 1,277,877 -91,514 -6.7%

Capital 23,688 23,363 -325 -1.4%

JUSTICE & EQUALITY 205,427 231,075 25,648 12.5%

Current 193,483 206,325 12,842 6.6%

Capital 11,944 24,750 12,806 -

PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND REFORM 69,906 62,089 -7,817 -11.2%

Current 59,676 56,701 -2,975 -5.0%

Capital 10,230 5,388 -4,842 -

EMPLOYMENT AFFAIRS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION 947,699 980,357 32,658 3.4%

Current 947,433 980,322 32,889 3.5%

Capital 266 35 -231 -

TAOISEACH'S 14,376 15,116 740 5.1%

Current 14,376 15,116 740 5.1%

Capital - - - -

TRANSPORT, TOURISM AND SPORT 106,640 101,575 -5,065 -4.7%

Current 85,230 58,823 -26,407 -31.0%

Capital 21,410 42,752 21,342 -

RURAL AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT 26,281 27,994 1,713 6.5%

Current 22,414 24,368 1,954 8.7%

Capital 3,867 3,626 -241 -6.2%

Total Net Cumulative Voted Spending 4,214,680 4,574,748 360,068 8.5%

Current 3,991,060 4,253,102 262,042 6.6%

Capital 223,620 321,646 98,026 43.8%

End January

2019

End January

2020

Year-on-Year

Variance

16

4.5 Analysis of Gross Voted Expenditure – End-January 2020

Source: Department of Public Expenditure and Reform.

MINISTERIAL VOTE GROUP

Year-on-Year

Variance

%

AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND THE MARINE 119,341 144,322 24,981 20.9%

Current 76,701 88,949 12,248 16.0%

Capital 42,640 55,373 12,733 29.9%

CULTURE, HERITAGE AND THE GAELTACHT 16,970 18,259 1,289 7.6%

Current 14,491 16,154 1,663 11.5%

Capital 2,479 2,105 -374 -15.1%

CHILDREN AND YOUTH AFFAIRS 164,054 189,876 25,822 15.7%

Current 163,555 188,998 25,443 15.6%

Capital 499 878 379 76.0%

COMMUNICATIONS, CLIMATE ACTION AND ENVIRONMENT 38,630 43,357 4,727 12.2%

Current 28,852 31,477 2,625 9.1%

Capital 9,778 11,880 2,102 21.5%

DEFENCE 70,475 71,386 911 1.3%

Current 69,248 64,880 -4,368 -6.3%

Capital 1,227 6,506 5,279 -

EDUCATION & SKILLS 906,657 1,118,932 212,275 23.4%

Current 871,305 1,062,472 191,167 21.9%

Capital 35,352 56,460 21,108 59.7%

BUSINESS ENTERPRISE & INNOVATION 52,579 61,325 8,746 16.6%

Current 22,547 26,947 4,400 19.5%

Capital 30,032 34,378 4,346 14.5%

HOUSING, PLANNING & LOCAL GOVERNMENT 82,834 153,382 70,548 -

Current 52,927 100,060 47,133 -

Capital 29,907 53,322 23,415 -

FINANCE 42,409 47,833 5,424 12.8%

Current 42,062 47,215 5,153 12.3%

Capital 347 618 271 78.1%

FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE 53,086 61,418 8,332 15.7%

Current 53,052 61,206 8,154 15.4%

Capital 34 212 178 -

HEALTH 1,407,541 1,315,505 -92,036 -6.5%

Current 1,383,853 1,292,142 -91,711 -6.6%

Capital 23,688 23,363 -325 -1.4%

JUSTICE & EQUALITY 224,759 258,330 33,571 14.9%

Current 212,815 233,580 20,765 9.8%

Capital 11,944 24,750 12,806 -

PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND REFORM 84,858 80,920 -3,938 -4.6%

Current 74,628 75,532 904 1.2%

Capital 10,230 5,388 -4,842 -47.3%

EMPLOYMENT AFFAIRS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION 1,723,018 1,924,019 201,001 11.7%

Current 1,722,752 1,923,984 201,232 11.7%

Capital 266 35 -231 -

TAOISEACH'S 14,634 15,448 814 5.6%

Current 14,634 15,448 814 5.6%

Capital - - - -

TRANSPORT, TOURISM AND SPORT 106,958 102,157 -4,801 -4.5%

Current 85,548 59,405 -26,143 -30.6%

Capital 21,410 42,752 21,342 -

RURAL AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT 26,352 28,025 1,673 6.3%

Current 22,485 24,399 1,914 8.5%

Capital 3,867 3,626 -241 -6.2%

Total Gross Cumulative Voted Spending 5,135,155 5,634,494 499,339 9.7%

Current 4,911,455 5,312,848 401,393 8.2%

Capital 223,700 321,646 97,946 43.8%

End January

2019

End January

2020

Year-on-Year

Variance

17

4.6 Exchequer Borrowing Requirement 2003-2019

From 2003 to 2007, the Exchequer account was broadly in balance, that is, outgoings were broadly in-line with

revenue. From 2008 onwards, tax revenues decreased sharply, and a substantial deficit opened up on the

Exchequer account. The underlying EBR increased significantly, peaking at over €20 billion (on a 12-month rolling

sum basis) at end-2009 (these figures exclude the impact of banking support provided through the Exchequer).

The Exchequer account recorded an annual surplus of €99 million in 2018, the first underlying surplus since 2006,

and a successive annual surplus in 2019 of €647 million.

Figures presented as a 12-month rolling sum and exclude one-off expenditure and receipts related to the financial sector.

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Dec-0

3

Jun

-04

Dec-0

4

Jun

-05

Dec-0

5

Jun

-06

Dec-0

6

Jun

-07

Dec-0

7

Jun

-08

Dec-0

8

Jun

-09

Dec-0

9

Jun

-10

Dec-1

0

Jun

-11

Dec-1

1

Jun

-12

Dec-1

2

Jun

-13

Dec-1

3

Jun

-14

Dec-1

4

Jun

-15

Dec-1

5

Jun

-16

Dec-1

6

Jun

-17

Dec-1

7

Jun

-18

Dec-1

8

Jun

-19

Dec-1

9

Exchequer Borrowing Requirement, € billions

18

Tithe an Rialtas. Sráid Mhuirfean Uacht,

Baile Átha Cliath 2, D02 R583, Éire.

Government Buildings, Upper Merrion Street,

Dublin 2, D02 R583, Ireland.

T:+353 1 676 7571

@IRLDeptFinance

www.finance.gov.ie