Five Years of SAS:The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly

Ephraim Feig, Ph.D

CTO & CMO, Kintera, Inc.

The technology is good

The technology will get better

Marketing and Biz-Dev will determine the winners

SAS: Shift the Risk

Shift the Risk-Time Distribution

SAS XAS

XAS Examples

• Rolls-Royce airplane engines

• Car leases1999 37%2001 33%2002 23%2003 20%2004 21%2005 22%

SAS is a natural evolution of consolidation

SAS is accelerating the adoption of SOA and Web Services

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

ASP Industry Directory

Companies (1711) Products (172)

http://linksmanager.com/aspnews/

2003

ASP Industry Directory

Companies (1745) Products (210)

http://linksmanager.com/aspnews/

Up 33 Up 38

2004

ASP Industry Directory

Companies (1814) Products (233)

http://linksmanager.com/aspnews/

Up 69 Up 23

2005

2004

Trends 1: CRM

• 1999: Siebel deployment was typically a $1M ordeal

• 2001: Salesforce.com hosted CRM applications– Standard edition for $65 per user per month

• $7,800 a year for 10 users

– Enterprise edition for $125 per user per year• $30,000 a year for 20 users2003

CRM (Cont.)

• 2002: Salesforce.com Team Edition– Slightly less functional– Only up to 5 users– $995 a year, fully hosted

2003

Salesforce.com

• IPO, June 23, 2004

• Pricing unchanged

• 2/10/2004: “1,000 developers are using sforce with about 10 percent of all traffic to Salesforce.com coming from API calls.”– http://www.eweek.com/print_article/0,1761,a=118827,00.asp

2004

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

CRM as a Service

• Core is becoming a commodity• Configuration management is limited

– Adds complexity to everyone• CustomForce

• ROI for very large solutions may not be competitive– Shift complexity to technical experts

• SForce

Some Perspective

Disruptive Technologies

Demand

Supply / Competition

Cost / Price

Clayton ChristensenThe Innovator’s Dilemma?

Disruptive Technologies

Disruptive Technologies

Disruptive TechnologyDisplaced / potentially displaced

technologysteam engines and internal-combustion engines

horses and humans (for powering machines)

automobiles horses (for transport)Hydraulic excavators Cable-operated excavatorsmini steel mills vertically integrated Steel millsminicomputers mainframes

Container ships and containerization "Break cargo" ships and stevedoresdesktop publishing traditional publishing

digital photography

originally, instant photography, now increasingly all chemical photography

personal computers minicomputers, workstations

Not all disruptions come from the bottom

Disruptive Technologies

• Christensen talks about tsunamis– Revolutionary

• Disruptions can also be ripples and waves – Evolutionary

Disruptive Technologies• Tsunamis

– Optimizing Compiler– PC– Internet

• Ripples and Waves– OOP– IDEs– SOA & Web Services

• Work Flow Engines• Biz Talk• Active Movie (Microsoft, 1996)

Disruptive Stimuli

• External Intervention

– Standards

– Government regulations

– Supply Chain requirements

Technology Adoption Curve

Disruptive Technologies

Disruptive Technologies

Demand

Supply / Competition

Cost / Price

Salesforce.com

• Pressured to move beyond salesforce automation– Contact Center– Marketing Automation– Analytics– Sforce– Customization via configuration

2005

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

IBM's Growth Engine Sputters

• Customers abandoning or changing deals– JP Morgan Chase– Cable & Wireless– U. Penn– Invensys– Equifax renegotiated

• Customers switching service providers– Piper Jaffray Unisys– Daimler Chrysler EDS– TUIUK Wipro– Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide HP– Deutsche Bank adds Accenture

Not all is bleak for SAS

• Aggressive growth in SMB

• And ….

SOX is the new Y2K

“X is the new Y”is part of the modern lexicon

Let’s measure this audience’s HCI (Hip Culture Index)

SOX is the new Y2K

• “Pink is the new …

… Red,” – Jossie and the Pussycats, 2001

• “Twelve is the new …

… Eleven,” – Ocean’s Twelve, 2004

• “Random is the new …

… Order,” – iPod Shuffle

Sarbanes-Oxley

• “Compliance costs average large company $7.8 million, 70,000 man hours, and countless headaches.”

• It will only grow before relaxing to a healthy level.

Sarbanes-Oxley

• The new Y2K– $6.1 Billion (AMR Research)

• Bitpipe lists 58 SOX compliance companies – HP: OpenView Compliance & SOA Managers– Computer Associates: Unicenter ServicePlus– EMC: Documentum Compliance Manager– IBM: Risk and Compliance Framework– Oracle: Compliance Architecture

SOX requires identity and access infrastructure that can both control and validate user-machine interactions as well as SOA-based machine-machine interactions.

SOA as COA

Compliance Oriented Architectures

RedMonk

Access control, analytics, archive/backup, auditing, collaboration, conflict resolution, destruction, disposition management, indexing, information integration, monitoring, notarization, policy engine, process registry, retention, retrieval, tagging, version control and workflow.

SERVICES COMMON TO COMPLIANCE

www.searchwebservices.com

Conclusion

• Enormous challenges– Complexity vs. Commoditization– On demand requirements– Competition

• Enormous opportunities– SOA and Web Services– Evolving regulations– Growing pool of talent