1

Fixed Income Market Trends and Perspective

Blocking and Tackling

Taxes Matter – Municipal Bonds have been a sound investment

Balanced Portfolios – Fixed income serves a role in a diversified portfolio

Global Growth Model

Growth Matters

Emerging Market Debt example

Market Environment

Since late 2002, risk has been rewarded

Valuations appear rich

The challenge of mean reversion evaluation

Structural Market Change

WIN – Whip Inflation Now – Did we win ?

How about the rest of the world ?

Globalization and convergence

Key Players and Impact

Derivative Instruments

Conclusion

Heraclitus and his takeaway

2

Blocking and Tackling – fundamentals review

• In an environment where many market prognosticators have forecast a low

return environment, after tax investment considerations become important

• After adjusting for taxes, municipal bonds have been a sound investment outright

Tax Adjusted Total Returns vs. Volatility

10 Years ending 9/30/06

Credit

US TreasuriesHigh Yield

Municipals

Municipal HY

Agg

S&P 500 (15.45%)

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1

Annualized Standard Deviation

Annualiz

ed R

etu

rn

Credit is represented by the Lehman Brothers (LB) U.S. Credit Index, U.S. Treasuriesare represented by the LB Treasury Index, High Yield is represented by

the LB High Yield Index, Municipal High Yield is represented by the LB LB Tax Free High Yield Index. Municipal returns have been adjusted based on a 35%

income tax bracket assumption. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.

3

100% Stocks

50%/50% Stocks/Bonds

100% Taxable Bonds

Stocks = S&P 500 Stock Index, Taxable Bonds = Lehman U.S. Aggregate Bond Index

Source: Lehman Brothers, Bloomberg

September 30, 1996-September 30, 2006

50/50 Stock/Bond returned 91% of the all-stock return with 50% of risk; 75/25 Stock/Bond returned almost 97% vs. all-stock with 75% of the risk.

4

6

8

10

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Risk (Standard Deviation, %)

Retu

rn (

%)

Blocking & Tackling – fundamentals review

Fixed Income plays a key role in diversified portfolios

4

Blocking & Tackling – fundamentals review

Commodities

U.S. Rates

China Exports

U.S.

Current Account

Japan,

China etc.

•With its voracious appetite for commodities, China (akin to late 19th

century America) is a global growth engine.

•With its 7% / GDP current account deficit largely funded with foreign

fund flows, the U.S. is a global growth engine.

•Europe and India also play key roles

The Global Growth Model

5

Blocking & Tackling – fundamentals review

GDP Growth vs. High Yield SpreadsMarch 30, 1990 - June 30, 2006

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

03/30/9

0

03/30/9

1

03/30/9

2

03/30/9

3

03/30/9

4

03/30/9

5

03/30/9

6

03/30/9

7

03/30/9

8

03/30/9

9

03/30/0

0

03/30/0

1

03/30/0

2

03/30/0

3

03/30/0

4

03/30/0

5

03/30/0

6

Real

GD

P %

ch

an

ge

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

Sp

read

(b

asis

po

ints

)

Annualized Real GDP Growth Credit Suisse High Yield Index Spread

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Credit Suisse

Growth Matters

6

Blocking & Tackling – fundamentals review

EMB spreads and oil prices

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Dec

-93

Dec

-94

Dec

-95

Dec

-96

Dec

-97

Dec

-98

Dec

-99

Dec

-00

Dec

-01

Dec

-02

Dec

-03

Dec

-04

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

EM

B s

pre

ads

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Oil

pri

ces

EMB spreads (L) Oil prices (R)

Source J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index (EMB)

A strong commodity run has been a catalyst for emerging

countries and contributed toward “convergence”

7

Market Environment

Risk-Return Table

January 2003 - December 2006: Annualized Stats

Return Std Dev Sharpe Ratio

MSCI EM (EMERGING MARKETS) 36.89 16.8 2.03

JPM EMB Global Index (jpmrg) 14.33 7.01 1.67

Credit Suisse High Yield Index 13.15 4.38 2.40

Credit Suisse High Yield CCC/Split CCC 19.97 8.26 2.09

Russell 2000 Value 23.26 13.35 1.54

NASDAQ Composite 16.74 13.71 1.03

S&P 500 14.74 8.28 1.46

Lehman US Aggregate Bond Index 3.80 3.75 0.34

Since 2002 risk has generally been handsomely rewarded

Source: Zephyr Style Advisor

8

Market Environment

EMD Yield Spread Over U.S. Treasuries

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

12/3

1/9

0

12/2

8/9

2

12/2

8/9

4

12/2

6/9

6

12/3

0/9

8

12/2

9/0

0

01/0

3/0

3

01/0

6/0

5

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

1/2/04 3/22/04 6/10/04 8/29/04 11/17/04 2/5/05 4/26/05 7/15/05 10/3/05 12/22/05 3/12/06 5/31/06 8/19/06 11/7/06

1

JPM Global HY Index & LB Aggregate – Spreads

January 11, 2004 through January 11, 2007

Source: Bloomberg and Lehman Point

JP Morgan Emerging Market Debt Spreads over US

Treasuries – December 1990 through January 2007

Source: JP Morgan

Valuations appear rich

9

Market Environment

% Investment grade

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06

% I

nv

es

tme

nt

Gra

de

% Investment grade

Historic spread analysis does not capture qualitative or structural change

In the case of EMD, a favorable commodity cycle in conjunction with:

Fiscal discipline Change in ownership base – pension funds

Abandonment of fixed exchange rate regimes Convergence

Global search for yield

The challenge of mean reversion analysis

10

Structural Market Change – WIN

• Whip Inflation Now – it looks like the inflation war has been won in the US

Annual Growth Rate of CPI

0%

5%

10%

15%

1975 1985 1995 2005

Source: International Monetary Fund

11

Structural Market Change – What about the rest of

the world ?

World Inflation Rates

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Source: International Monetary Fund

12

Structural Market Change – Globalization & Convergence

“ In a nutshell, I believe that the factors of globalization, deregulation, and financial

innovation, arising partly in response to episodes of high inflation, have effectively

eroded the central bank monopoly on the provision of monetary services and have

enhanced global competition among currencies. These changes have, in turn, altered the

incentives for central banks to behave badly and for finance ministries to use central

banks as "piggy banks" to finance their fiscal policies. The resulting constraint on

monetary policy, combined with increased public understanding of the costs of inflation,

have led to institutional changes in central bank governance that bolster their credibility

for maintaining price stability in the future. Improved central bank performance and

credibility, thus, are the consequences of this combination of factors.”

Source: Remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Randall S. Kroszner

At the Cato Institute Monetary Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

November 16, 2006 “The Conquest of Worldwide Inflation

13

Structural Market Change – Globalization & Convergence

A global trading club (with rules):

• European Union – Economic guidelines for entry

• Global standards for trade - International Organization

Standards (ISO) - together with IEC (International Electrotechnical

Commission) and ITU (International Telecommunication Union) - has built a

strategic partnership with the WTO (World Trade Organization) with the

common goal of promoting a free and fair global trading system

Source: http://www.iso.org

14

Structural Market Change – Key Players and Impact

• Hedge Funds – Lehman Brothers research estimates there are currently 9,000 hedge funds

managing approximately $1.7 trillion in assets

• Private Equity – Strong flows into private equity in conjunction with the willingness of private

equity players’ to “partner” has increased the pace and scale of LBO activity.

In the 18 months prior to August 2006, nine of the ten largest buyouts

in history have been announced or completed. (source T. Rowe Price)

• Pension Funds – The Pension Protection Act passed in July 2006 directly impacting

approximately $1.6 trillion in DB pension assets. Although different than the US, it is generally

believed that the inversion of the yield curve in the U.K. has largely been attributable to a version

of pension reform

• Tender Option Bond (TOB) Programs – Structurally designed to provide institutional clients with

yield by essentially borrowing short, investing long and adding a degree of leverage to amplify the

yield. Is generally believed to be a strong contributor to flatness of today’s municipal curve

15

Structural Market Change – Derivatives

Not a dirty word

When used in moderation, derivatives can increase the efficiency of the

portfolio management process and aid in risk management

Instruments that fall under this label include:

• Futures – can be used to manage interest rate risk. Favorable on certain bonds that have a

degree of illiquidity, but concerned with near term valuation, a short interest rate futures trade can provide a hedge

• Options – In international portfolios, can be long on a currency option to hedge interest rate risk at the country level

• Credit Default Swaps – A tool for managing risk at security specific and market levels. Other practical applications as well

16

Conclusion – What can we learn from Heraclitus

In an age of abundant data, historical information provides an invaluable frame of

reference for making investment decisions today. Qualifying an historical perspective

with an understanding of how the world today is unique relative to the past is an even

more potent formula for success. As the French found out in the late 1930’s, while a

formidable structure, the Maginot Line was not built for the type of warfare that unfolded

during the Second World War.

Heraclitus - A Greek philosopher of the late 6th century

BC, who said, “You can never step into the same river;

for new waters are always flowing on to you."

17

Final appendix

• Past performance cannot guarantee future results.

• All charts are for illustrative purposes only and not meant to represent an investment in any particular security. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

• Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

• Risks:

• Interest Rate risk: This is the decline in bond prices that usually accompanies a rise in interest rates. Longer-maturity bonds typically decline more than those with shorter maturities.

• Credit risk: This is the chance that any fund holding could have its credit rating downgraded, or that a bond issuer will default (fail to make timely payments of interest or principal), potentially reducing the fund's income level and share price.

• High-Yield Investing A fund investing in high-yield corporate bonds, often called "junk bonds," could have greater price declines than funds that invest primarily in high-quality bonds.

• Emerging market Risk: Investments in emerging markets are subject to abrupt and severe price declines, and should be regarded as speculative. The economic and political structures of developing nations, in most cases, do not compare favorably with the U.S. or other developed countries in terms of wealth and stability, and their financial markets often lack liquidity.

• Derivatives: Investing in derivative instruments may involve substantial risk. The risks of investing in derivatives should be carefully weighed as it is possible to lose more than the amount invested.