Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Jul 09

8/14/2019 Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Jul 09

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Cambodia Economic Flash Report July 2009

CDRI-Cambodias Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute Page 2

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sanPaBGRtabrR)ak; nig CMnYyGPivDn_BIeRkARbeTsExchange Rates and External Development Assistance

Riels per US Dollar

April 2008June 2009

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Riels per THB & VND

April 2008June 2009

Source:National Bank of Cambodia

Monetary Survey

February 2008April 2009


Domestic Credit



Monetary Operations



External Development Assistance Disbursement:

Community and Social Welfare20002007

Source: Cambodia Aid Effectiveness Report 2007, CDC

-30%

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

150%

180%

210%

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Annualised growth rate (M2)

Annualised gro wth rate (M1)

Growth o ver the previous 12 mo nths (M2)

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

KHRbn

Liquidity Net Foreign AssetsP rivat e Sect or Credit Government Deposit sOther

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

USDm

4083

4132

4151

4066

411

5

4

134

3900

3950

4000

4050

4100

4150

4200

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Market rate

Official rate

122

120

12

32

3.4

23.3

24.9

114

116

118

120

122

124

126

128

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

KHRperB

aht

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

KHRperVD

N100

Thai baht (left)

Vietnamese dong (right)

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

Annualised change in domestic credit (left)

Annualised change in private sector credit (left)P revious 12 mo nths ' growth in dom es tic credit (right)


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BaNiCkmeRkARbeTs nig karGnuvtfvikaCatiExternal Trade and National Budget Operations

Imports: Cigarettes & Construction Materials


Source:Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Cambodia: Main Exports


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

USD

m

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

USD

m

Total exports (left) Garments (left)

Rubber (right) Fish (right)

Source:Economic & Monetary Statistics,NBC

Note: revised data for June 08 & January 09

Imports: Petroleum ProductsFebruary 2008April 2009

Source:Economic & Monetary Statistics,NBC

Current Budget OperationsMarch 2008May 2009

Source: MEF Bulletin

Current Budget Revenue

March 2008May 2009

Source: MEF website

Current Budget Expenditure

March 2008May 2009

294

141

52

102

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

KHRbn

Other services

Subsidies and social assistance

Wages

Current expenditure

]

Source: MEF website

59.6

32.4

54.9

17.0

19.1

10.3

19.1

62.6

18.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

KHRbn

Cigaret tes Cement Steel

98.4

89.6

89.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

KHRbn

270

298338

9669

114 4551

50

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

KH

Rbn

Non-tax

Import and Export t axes

Domestic taxes

116131

85

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

KHRbn


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GRtabrR)ak; nig sanPaBfTMnijelITIpSarGnrCatiExchange Rates and Commodity Prices in World Markets

KRW & HKD per USD

June 2008June 2009 (monthly average)

7.72

7.74

7.76

7.78

7.80

7.82

7.84

7.86

7.88

7.90

7.92

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

HKD

910

970

1030

1090

1150

1210

1270

1330

1390

1450

1510

KRW

HKD (left scale)

KRW (right scale)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

EUR & JPY per USDJune 2008June 2009 (monthly average)

0.60

0.63

0.66

0.69

0.72

0.75

0.78

0.81

0.84

0.87

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

EUR

90

94

98

102

106

110

114

118

122

126

JPY

EURO(left scale)

JPY (right scale)


THB & SGD Per USD

June 2008June 2009 (monthly average)

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

THB

1.35

1.38

1.41

1.44

1.47

1.50

1.53

1.56

SGD

THB (left scale)

SGD (right scale)


Rice: International Prices Index & Export Prices

May 2008May2009

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

USD/tonneFOB

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

IPO

USA 2/4

Thai 100% B

IPO

Sources: Osiriz/InfoArroz and InterRice.

Prices: Soybeans, Maize & Palm OilMay 2008May 2009

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

USD/tonneFOB

0

4 0 0

8 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 6 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

S o y b e a n s : U S N o . 1 , Y e l l o w ( l e f t s c a l e )

M a i z e : U S N o . 2 , Y e l l o w ( l e f t s c a l e )

P a l m O i l : c ru d e ( r i g h t s c a l e )

Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation

Prices: Crude Oil, Gasoline & DieselJune 2008June 2009

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

USD

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

USC

ent

Crude oil: OPEC spot -

USD/barrel

Gasoline: US Gulf Coast - US

cents/litre (right scale)

Diesel: low sulphur No.2 - US

cents/litre (right scale)

Source: US Energy Information Administration


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BtmanesdkicEconomic News

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eGaydMeNIrkarRtYtBinitkarGnuvt):atg;enAkgtMbn; manPaBcuHsRmugKa . elak Adrian Cristobal Jr. GKnaykkariyalykmsiTbBaanRbeTshVIlIBIn(IP Philis.))anbBaak;tamryEpkkicshRbtibtikarRtYtBinit):atg;Gasan (Aspec) fa GkbegItfI nigshRKinnanaEdl)andak;BaksMu):atg;enARbeTshVIlIBIn GaceRbIlTplRtYtBinitBIkariyalyrbs;elakenATIenH edIm,Idak;BaksMu):atg;enARbeTssmaCikeTot . elakbneTotfa RbBnenHGacCYysnSMeBlevla nigFnFansMrab;;GkbegItf I kgkaresIsMu):atg;rbs;BYkeK . elak Crisobal

)anbEnmfa karRtYtBinitrbs; Aspec GnuvtEtelIkaresIsMu):atg;EdlRKan;EtCamYyPaKndMeNIrkarb:ueNaH b:uEnvaCakarcUlrYmcMENkdFMmYy kgkmviFIshKmn_esdkicGasan EdleRKagnwgcab;epImGnuvtenAqaM2015 . elak Cristobal bcb,nCa RbFanKNkmaFikarsMrbsMrYlkickarGasansMrab;eKalneya)aykmsiT ibBaa nigkicshRbtibt ikar )anR)ab;GkykBtmanfa {enHCakarcab;epImdlmYyedIm,IxwtxMbegItkicRBmeRBogkgtMbn; EdlnwgCYysMrYldl; GkcRbDitfIGkviTasaRs nigshRKinTaMgGs; kgkarTTYl)an):atg; . RbBnenHnwgkat;bnyfeFVIGaCIvkm ehIyeyIgsgwmfa vanwgTak;TajvinieyaKinbreTsmkvinieyaKkgtMbn;enH }. elak )anbnfa kgeBlbcb,nrbbeRbI):atg;kgtMbn; enAEtmanlkNtamRbeTs eBalKW Gkcg;)an):atg;enAkgRbeTsGasanNamYy RtUvdak;BaksMueTAsmtkickgRbeTsenaH . elak Cristobal )anbBaak;fa Aspec CaCMhanmYykgkarksagTMnukcitelIPaBsats Mrbs; mRnIxagkmsiTibBaakgtMbn;kgkarRtYtBinitBaksMu):atg; . CamYyKaenHEdr elak Cristobal)aneGaydwgfa yuTnakarRbqaMgkarlYccMlgxusc,ab; )annaM[mankarrwbGUsTMnijEkgbnMdRcInelIslb; EdlmantMlCag 3/3Ban;lan

R)ak;eb:sU cab;BIExmkra dl;mifuna 2009 . elak Cristobal elIkfayuTnakarRbqaMgkarlYccMlgxusc,ab; nwgjaMg[karrwbGUsGIv:an;EkgbnMkgqaM2009enH mantMlsrubelIsBI 3/5Ban;laneb:sU EdlCatMlnkarrwbGUs\v:an;EkgbnMsrub rYmbBalTaMgm:asuIncMlgbIeRKOgEdlmantMl):an;sansrubdl; 200laneb:sU sMerc)an kgGMLgeBleBjmYyqaM2008 .

Economic News Highlights:

ASEAN moving closer to single-patenting system:

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations ismoving closer to a single-patenting regime just like

in the European Union with the launch of initiativesto harmonize the examination process for patent

applications in the region. Adrian Cristobal Jr.,

Director-General of the Intellectual Property Office

of the Philippines (IP Phils.), said through the AseanPatent Examination Cooperation (Aspec), innovators

and entrepreneurs who applied for patents in the

Philippines can use the result of his examinationreports here in applying for patents in other member-

countries. He said this would save the innovatorstime and resources for their patent applications.

Cristobal said while Aspec only covers examinationof the patent application, which is just one part of the

process, it will be a big contribution to the AseanEconomic Community program that is slated to start

in 2015. Its a good start to try to set up a regional

arrangement that will make it easier for inventors,scientist and entrepreneurs to obtain patents. It cuts

the cost of doing business, and hopefully, also, this

will attract foreign investment into the region,

Cristobal, currently the chair of the AseanCoordinating Committee on Intellectual Property

Policy and Cooperation, told reporters. He said thepatent regime in the region will still be territorial for

now, which means those who want to seek patents inany Asean member-country will have to apply in

each jurisdiction. Still, Cristobal said the Aspec will

be a step to building confidence on the integrity of IPofficers in the region to examine patent applications.

Meanwhile, Cristobal reported that the campaign

against piracy has led to the confiscation of over 3.3billion peso worth of counterfeit items from January

to June this year. This, Cristobal said, means that the

haul for the anti-piracy campaign this year willsurely exceed the 3.5 billion peso worth of

confiscated items in the whole of 2008. Included in

the confiscated items are three replicating machineswith a total estimated value of 200 million peso.

Links to other economic news:1. Can ASEAN boost domestic-demand-led growth(http://www.1888pressrelease.com/sixth-asean-leadership-forum-asean-urged-to-boost-domestic-pr-128250.html)2. China-ASEAN investment deal to be sealed soon(http://meltwaternews.com/prerobot/sph.asp?pub=ST&sphurl=www.straitstimes.com//Asia/China/Story/STIStory_395975.html)3. Impending ASEAN-India FTA to be sealed inAugust (http://www.mediabuzz.com.sg/asian-channels/june-2009/489-impending-asean-india-fta-to-be-sealed-in-august-2009)


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Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Jul 09

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