Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Jun 09

8/14/2019 Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Jun 09

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Cambodia Economic Flash Report June 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute Page 2

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percent fall, while expenditure on wages rose by 13 percent.

In April, Phnom Penhs overall consumer prices decreased

by 3.9 percent from the same month last year. The price of

food and non-alcoholic beverages shrank by 4.1 percent,

and the cost of housing and utilities fell by 8.7 percent,while medical care and clothing and footwear items jumped

by 3.1 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively.

In May, the prices of gasoline and diesel increased by 4.3

percent and 4.4 percent, respectively, from the precedingmonth. Gasoline traded at an average of 3424.7 riels/; and

diesel, 3024.7 riels/. In May, of the four selected goods prices in the six provinces, rice prices in Battambang,

Kompong Cham, and Siem Reap were up, while those in

Svay Rieng (S. Rieng) marked falls. The price of fish wasunchanged in Kompong Speu and Kampot, but dropped in

Kompong Cham. The price of pork fell in most of the

selected provinces, except for Kampot and Siem Reap,

where prices were stable.

In April, rice exports from Thailand to the world market

were priced at USD 565.9 per tonne. The rubber price wasUSD 1327.6 per tonne, and the maize price was USD 507.0

per tonne. Vietnams rice export price was USD 489.5 per

tonne; rubber, USD 1454.6 per tonne; and cashew nuts,USD 4500 per tonne.

In March, total goods exports by the US slowed by

approximately 3.0 percent from the previous month, while

those of the Euro zone and Japan increased by 3.3 percent

and 10.7 percent, respectively. During the same month, the

values of Japans four main goods exports showed marked

declines from the same month last year. Exports ofmanufactured goods, electrical machinery, machinery, and

transport equipment dropped by 33 percent, 39 percent, 43

percent, and 55 percent, respectively. Malaysias tradesurplus increased by 3.4 percent from the previous month;

therein, total exports were up by 9.0 percent, and total

imports increased by 11 percent.In April, the price of overall consumer goods and services

in the USA and Japan declined by 0.7 percent and 0.1

percent, respectively, from the same month last year,whereas overall consumer prices in the Euro zone rose by

0.6 percent. The overall prices in Asian countries namely

China, Thailand and Singapore fell by 1.5 percent, 0.9percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, while those in Hong

Kong, Malaysia and S. Korea rose by 0.6 percent, 3.0

percent, and 3.6 percent, respectively.

In May, the value of Korean won, the Euro, Singapore

dollar, Thai baht, and Japanese yen appreciated against the

US dollar, while the value of the Hong Kong dollar

remained stable against the US dollar.

In April, the prices of soybean, maize, and palm oil at the

international market increased by 3.9 percent, 4.0 percentand 17 percent, respectively, from the previous month. In

May, the spot price of crude oil rose by 7.6 percent from

last month, reaching USD 53.5/barrel. Diesel traded at UScents 39.0/, a rise of 7.7 percent, while US Gulf Coast

gasoline sold at US cents 43.8/, an increase of 23 percent.


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sanPaBGRtabrR)ak; nig CMnYyGPivDn_BIeRkARbeTsExchange Rates and External Development Assistance

Riels per US Dollar

March 2008May 2009

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Riels per THB & VND

March 2008May 2009

Source:National Bank of Cambodia

Monetary Survey

January 2008March 2009


Domestic Credit



Monetary Operations



External Development Assistance Disbursement:

Transportation

20002007

Source: Cambodia Aid Effectiveness Report 2007, CDC

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

USDm

4009

41044132

3993

4087 4115

3900

3950

4000

4050

4100

4150

4200

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Market rat e

Official rate120

116

126

23.3

23

.2

24.9

114

116

118

120

122

124

126

128

130

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

KHRperBaht

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

KHRperVD

N100

Thai baht (left)

Vietnamese dong (right)

-30%

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

150%

180%

210%

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

Annualised growth rate (M2)

Annualised gro wth rate (M1)Growth o ver the previous 12 mo nths (M2)

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

130%

150%

Annualis ed cha nge in dom es tic credit (left)

Annualis ed cha nge in private s ec to r credit (left)P revious 12 mo nths ' gro wth in do mes tic credit (right)

-6000

-4000-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

KHRbn

Liquidity Net Foreign AssetsP rivat e Sect or Credit Government Deposit sOther


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BaNiCkmeRkARbeTs nig karGnuvtfvikaCatiExternal Trade and National Budget Operations

Imports: Cigarettes & Construction Materials


Source:Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Cambodia: Main Exports


Source:Economic & Monetary Statistics,NBC

Imports: Petroleum ProductsJanuary 2008March 2009

Source:Economic & Monetary Statistics,NBC

Current Budget OperationsJanuary 2008March 2009

Source: MEF Bulletin

Current Budget Revenue


Source: MEF website

Current Budget Expenditure


Source: MEF website

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

USD

m

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

USD

m

Total exports (left) Garments (left)

Rubber (right) Fish (right)

15.5

65.5

32.4

18.8

12.8

19.115.0

12.6

62.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

KHRbn

Cigarett es Cement St eel

89.69

5.4

78.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

KHRbn

131

283

2

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

KHRbn

308

207295

91

67

114

45

75

92

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

KHRbn

Non-tax

Import and Export t axes

Domestic taxes313

162

45

105

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

K

HRbn

Other servicesSubsidies and social assistanceWagesCurrent expenditure


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GRtabrR)ak; nig fTMnijelITIpSarGnrCatiExchange Rates and Commodity Prices in World Markets

KRW & HKD per USD

May 2008May 2009 (monthly average)

7.72

7.74

7.76

7.78

7.80

7.82

7.84

7.86

7.88

7.90

7.92

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

HKD

910

970

1030

1090

1150

1210

1270

1330

1390

1450

1510

KRW

HKD (left scale)

KRW (right scale)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

EUR & JPY per USDMay 2008May 2009 (monthly average)

0.60

0.63

0.66

0.69

0.72

0.75

0.78

0.81

0.84

0.87

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

EUR

90

94

98

102

106

110

114

118

122

126

JPY

EURO(left scale)

JPY (right scale)


THB & SGD Per USD

May 2008May 2009 (monthly average)

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

THB

1.35

1.38

1.41

1.44

1.47

1.50

1.53

1.56

SGD

THB (left scale)

SGD (right scale)


Rice: International Prices Index & Export Prices

March 2008March 2009

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

USD/tonneFOB

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

IPO

USA 2/4

Thai 100% B

IP O

Sources: Osiriz/InfoArroz and InterRice.

Prices: Soybeans, Maize & Palm OilApril 2008April 2009

0

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

USD/tonneFOB

0

4 0 0

8 0 0

1 2 0 0

1 6 0 0

2 0 0 0

2 4 0 0

Soybeans: US No.1 , Yel low ( le f t sca le )

Maize : US No.2 , Yel low ( le f t sca le )

Pa lm O il : c rude (r ight sca le )

Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation

Prices: Crude Oil, Gasoline & DieselMay 2008May 2009

20

30

40

50

6070

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

USD

20

30

40

50

6070

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

US

Cent

Crude oil: OPEC spot -USD/barrel

Gasoline: US Gulf Coast - UScents/litre (right scale)

Diesel: low sulphur No.2 - UScents/litre (right scale)

Source: US Energy Information Administration


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BtmanesdkicEconomic News

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Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Jun 09

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