FCERM strategic direction – evidence base part 2
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Flood and coastal management interventions
Questions that informed the evidence base part 2
What interventions can be implemented in response (to the previously identified flood and coastal erosion risk management (FCERM) risks)?
What interventions have we got (both resistance and resilience), how technically effective are they and what do they cost?
How are interventions used and managed and how does this impact on flood risk?
What additional evidence and analysis do we need to inform our future strategic direction?
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Intervention context and overview
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Avoiding inappropriate development in areas at risk of flooding and coastal change
Planning policy development and implementation
Identifying the problem and enabling interventions
Risk assessments, mapping, modelling, strategies and plans
Taking action to reduce flooding and coastal erosion
Combinations of structural defences, natural flood management (NFM) and relocation of
communities
Flood incident management and recovery
Flood forecasting and warning, emergency planning
Managing residual risk
Property level resistance and resilience measures, infrastructure resilience
Avoiding inappropriate development in areas at risk of flooding and coastal erosion
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Avoiding inappropriate development
• National Planning Policy Framework
• Local Development Plans, Combined Authority Strategic Frameworks, Neighbourhood Plans
• Environment Agency statutory consultee role
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Source: Draft s.18 report
Progress in managing risk
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• 2016 to 2017, over 98% of residential units in planning decisions were in line with Environment Agency advice
• 151 of 160 local authority-led development plans incorporated a sequential approach to development of sites within the floodplain
Source: Draft s.18 report
96% of final planning decisions during 2016 to 2017 were in line
with Environment Agency Planning advice
Development in flood risk areas
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• 9% of new dwellings in high flood risk areas (2015-16)
• 11% of new homes built in flood risk areas since 2000
• 17,000 houses built in flood risk areas 2015-16
• NB: flood risk areas defined by EA flood map for planning that does not include defences
Source: Environment Agency (2017) Spatial
planning FCRM evidence slides (data from DCLG)
Identifying the problem and enabling interventions
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Developing the evidence base to understand flood risk challenges
• Local detailed models cover 76% of the fluvial and coastal floodplain in Englandmodels used to support the development of FRM schemes and to better define the Flood
Zones used for spatial planning (£100m invested)
• Risk assessment methods/tools to understand residual risk in defended areas (£25m invested)underpin National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA) and national investment planning
• Combining risks from all sourcesRisk of Flooding from Multiple Sources – fluvial, coastal and surface water
ongoing R&D into groundwater flood mapping
• Next generation NaFRANaFRA2 - better utilises trusted local model information where it is available
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Developing the evidence base to understand coastal erosion challenges
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• National Coastal Erosion Risk Management Map first published on the Environment Agency website in 2012 provides the first consistent assessment of coastal erosion in England using
local authority verified data
• Updated 2015-17 and will continue to be maintained and regularly updated
• Open data, and can be found at www.data.gov.uk
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Identifying flood risk and ways of working –Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs)
• FRMPs set out how risk management authorities (RMAs) will work together and with communities to manage flood risk
• FRMPs produced alongside the second cycle of river basin management plans (RBMPS) – where applicable, the two plans take account of the objectives of each other
• Updated RBMPs published in February 2016
• Set out priorities to protect and improve the quality of the water environment achieving benefits for wildlife, the economy and health and wellbeing Progress of implementation of
FRMP measures 2016 to 2017 –
draft s.18 report
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• Flood and Water Management Act 2010 requires Lead Local Flood Authorities (LLFAs) to develop, maintain and monitor LFRMSs
• These describe flood risk in an area and set out the actions that will be taken to manage it
• They help prioritise investment decisions
• They provide a starting point for LLFAs to engage with communities
Identifying actions to reduce flood risk through local flood risk management strategies (LFRMS)
LLFA progress in delivering local flood risk management
strategies as at 31 March 2017 – draft s.18 report
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Providing the long term management framework for coastal flood and erosion risks
Summary results of Environment Agency study to
assess risk to delivery of SMP management policies
(CH2M 2017, unpublished) – draft s.18 report
• 20 Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) produced between 1995 and 1999 and updated between 2006 and 2012
• Managed and implemented by coastal groups - coastal authorities, Environment Agency and other stakeholders
• National assessment of SMPs - March 2017 identified management policy units where special attention ('be aware') or a change in approach ('consider further') may be needed
RMAs work together to manage multiple sources of flood risk
Environment Agency is responsible for flooding from main rivers, reservoirs, estuaries and the sea
Other RMAs manage related aspects and work collaboratively with the Environment Agency to manage cumulative risk in catchments and communities
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Source: Southern
Water
Working together to maintain FCERM assets
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
• Public Sector Cooperation Agreements (PSCA) between Environment Agency and other RMAs
• Focus on flood maintenance works• 69 confirmed PSCAs in place
59 with IDBs 9 with local authorities 1 with a navigation authority
Source: Environment Agency, 2017
Taking action to reduce flooding and coastal erosion
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Interventions usually applied in combination
• FCERM challenges rarely addressed through single intervention schemes but through a combination of measures e.g. structural defences to manage immediate risk, NFM to manage longer
term impacts and adapt to climate change
• Catchment approaches combine a variety of interventions often to resolve multiple sources of risk
• FCERM challenges are context-specific site constraints, source of risk, velocity/depth etc. require different
approaches in different locations
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Using a combination of measures to achieve optimal solutions and multiple benefits
Source: Acclimatise (2017)
Climate change adaptation by
design: A guide for sustainable
communities
Timing of interventions to take account of climate change
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Source: Defra (2009) Appraisal of flood and
coastal erosion risk management: a Defra
policy statement
• Managed adaptive approaches provide an opportunity to respond flexibly to future change
• Enable schemes to maintain their standard of protection as flood risk increases as a result of climate change and deterioration of assets
• 48% of major schemes reviewed for ASC project on long term resilience of recent FCERM schemes (2017) included an adaptive approach but most did not identify clear adaptive pathways
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Interventions in place
Source: Environment
Agency (2016) AIMS
inventory
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Source: Draft
s.18 report
FCERM Achievements 2011-2017Impact of interventions over the last 6 years
Asset management – lessons learnedPerformance assessment of defence assets after every major flood event since 2007
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Earth embankment defence – Cumbria
Winter 14/15 – note wrack mark
Defence failure and breach river Torne, near Doncaster (Summer 2007)
Defence failure and breach river Douglas, Croston, Lancashire (December 2014)
Source: Environment
Agency, 2017
Asset management – lessons learned since 2007
• Summer floods 2007approximately half (500km) of tested defences were overtoppedasset review revealed only 4 cases of flood defence breach
• Winter floods 2013/1483 structural failures – 38were defences owned by the Environment Agency
Occurred during 5/6 December 2013 storm surge - defence failures occurred during the 5th/6th
December 2013 storm surge and were associated with overtopping of historic levees not
designed to modern-day standards or by failures at transitions
• Winter floods 2014/15exceedance of daily rainfall historic records at many locationsnumber of flood defence breaches was very small in proportion to the scale of the event
• Defence system is resilient and performs well under extreme conditions
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
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Source: Environment Agency (2017)
Working with Natural Processes Evidence
Directory
On average NFM can reduce flood risk by between 5 -25%, depending on the type and location of the intervention and the size of the catchment
Benefits can be achieved from a range of NFM measures
NFM helps make space for water by connecting the floodplain to the channel/sea
.
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Source: Environment
Agency (2017) Working
with Natural Processes
Evidence Directory
Working with natural processes (WWNP) to reduce coastal erosion risk
• Coastal WWNP measures reduce the risk of coastal erosion by reducing wave and tidal energy in front of defence
• Saltmarshes help to trap sediment and resist erosion. The degree of risk reduction will depend on the cause of risk in any one location.
• Beach nourishment can reduce erosion in the short to medium term. It enhances natural recovery and it has a 1 to 10 year life before first major recharge.
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Source: Environment Agency (2017) WWNP
Evidence Base and Scottish Natural Heritage
(2000) A guide to managing coastal erosion in
beach/dune systems
Water company interventions
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Role of water companies and scale of challenge
•Role to provide, improve and extend public sewers to ensure that the area served is, and continues to be, effectually drained
•Return ~10 billion litres of treated wastewater a day safely to the environment
•Over 22,000 permitted Combined Sewer Overflows (CSOs) in UK
•Between 1989 and 2020, around 8,000 will have been improved (England and Wales)
•Last year, 5,690 properties flooded with sewage
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Why we needed a new approach
•Legacy issues within our sewerage network
•Population growth and urbanisation•Climate change over next 25–50 years•UWWTD Infraction risks•Affordability & resilience – key for customers
•Supporting economic growth•The need to move to longer term planning
•The need to plan holistically across the drainage landscape
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Challenges we face
Complex:
•Institutional arrangements•Funding arrangements•Regulatory standards•Technical advice
Partnership approach needed – we can’t solve challenge on our own
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Where we are on the journey
•Better shared understanding through work of 21st Century Drainage – a partnership approach with more than forty members from UK governments, regulators, local authorities, eNGOs, professional bodies
•About to embark on developing improved long term planning framework – Drainage and Wastewater Management Plans
•Wish to work with a wide range of stakeholders and to co-ordinate with the activities of others
Investment in FCERM interventions
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
FCERM
funding
mechanisms
Central Government Funding Other sources of funding
Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management
Source: Defra
(2017) Central
Government
Funding for FCERM
in England
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Investment overview
2015/16 – 2020/21 £2.5bn investment
programme is intended to protect a further
300,000 properties and reduce overall
flood risk by 5%Source: Central Government Funding for Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk
Management in England (September 2017)
Source: Flood and coastal erosion risk management in
England investment programme 2015 to 2021 infographic
– updated March 2017
Projected benefits from 2015-2021 programme
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£22.3
£29.4
42%
58%
£5.0
£22.3
£29.4
42%
58%
£5.0
Source: FCERM in
England investment
programme 2015 to 2021
infographic – updated
March 2017
Benefits for the economy, the environment and households: 2015-2021
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Source: FCERM in England
investment programme 2015 to
2021 infographic – updated March
2017
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Planned investmentInvestment and a decrease in the cost of building and maintaining defences will reduce overall flood and coastal erosion risk
• Forecast reduction in overall flood and coastal erosion risk by 2021 is 5% compared to present day assuming performance of current assets and incident management service are maintained at current levels
• Planned FCRM investment for 2015-21 (£2.3bn) is closely aligned with the optimum long-term investment level providing £600m contributions (current target is £350m)
Source:
Environment
Agency (2015)
Long Term
Investment
Scenarios briefing
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Future investment levelInvestment need will increase over time
• Annual investment need is expected to rise by over £100 million over the next 50 years.
• Best estimate is that it will rise to £850 to £900 million from the mid 2020s to the 2050s and then £900 to £950 million in the mid 2050s to 2060
• Between 2015 to 2065, this averages to £860 million per yearSource: Environment Agency (2015)
Long Term Investment Scenarios briefing
Property level resilience
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Residual risk
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Properties remaining at high risk after 50 and 100 years even with optimal investment
Source: Environment
Agency (2015) Long
Term Investment
Scenarios briefing
Projections to 100 years in the future are highly uncertain but the LTIS evidence suggests properties at high and medium risk should decrease after the 2060s due to substantial investments in FCERM achieving a faster rate of risk reduction
Flood resilient development can help manage residual risk
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Source: Environment
Agency, 2017
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Source: Flood resilience
measures
(knowyourfloodrisk.co.uk
Examples of the range of resistance and resilience measures that are available
Property level resilience: current take up and effectiveness
• More than 3,000 homes in over 100 communities have property level flood protection in place
• 2012 Evaluation – PLP successfully mitigated flooding in 84% of properties
• Investment of £5 million will fund installation at a further 1,500 properties by 2021
• Environment Agency has set up mechanisms to make it easier for people to apply for government funding for property level schemes, alongside community defence schemes
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Source: Defra, 2012
and Environment
Agency, 2015
Property Level Resilience
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Increasing the uptake rate of households installing property level protection (PLP) could mean more properties are moved out of high risk
Source: Environment
Agency (2015) Long
Term Investment
Scenarios briefing
• Significant increase in uptake could lead to PLR benefiting an additional 63,0000 properties at risk
• 50% uptake of PLP scenario would have cash costs of £300 million, spread over several decades, and a benefit to cost ratio of 3:1
• Results of 'what if’ analysis based on a step change in take up of PLP
Flood insurance
• Current home insurance Flood cover available in high risk areas
but premiums are uncapped
• Flood Re scheme A not-for-profit reinsurance body
Will help make flood insurance affordable for households at high flood risk in the United Kingdom
Promote the use of flood resistant/resilient repairs
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Infrastructure resilience
• Current approaches to ensure the resilience of infrastructure:Industry guidance (ETR138) requires electricity substations to achieve a
Standard of Protection of 0.1% Gas assets inherently resilient as largely underground - climate change
allowances built into design and planning of major above ground assetsICT system has built in resilience and redundancy due to multiple providers
and technological developments meaning short design livesRail infrastructure is designed to withstand hazards likely to occur as a result
of climate changeHighways England has metrics and design requirements aiming to ensure
resilience of its assets to extreme weather and climate changeWater industry reviewing the resilience of all relevant water assets (clean and
waste) serving > 10,000 people following the National Flood Resilience Review
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Flood incident management and recovery
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Flood incident management: proposed interventions 2015-22
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Source: Flood Incident
Management Plan
2015-2022
Flood incident management commitments following the National Flood Resilience Review, 2016
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Communicating and responding to flood risk
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Raising Awareness • ‘Sciencewise’ – increasing the effectiveness of public
communications to improve Government policy on science and technology
• Range of community involvement approaches
Only 5-8% of people are sure they are at risk and over half of people at risk don’t think they are
Source:
Environment
Agency, 2017
Supporting Winter Readiness 2016/17
Source:
Environment
Agency
presentation
to ICE, 2017
Flood technology innovation enabling improved detecting, forecasting, warning and informing
Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Source: Environment Agency, 2017
Overview of evidence sources and gaps
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Evidence reviewed
• Key evidence: Section 18 Report, National Flood Resilience Review, National Flood Risk Assessment, UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, NaFRA, Environment Agency flood maps, WWNP Evidence Base, Long Term Investment Scenarios, Central Government Funding for Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management in England
• Sources include:Environment Agency
Committee on Climate Change
Defra
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Emerging evidence• Environment Agency
Updating Long Term Investment Scenarios and developing an alternative approach focused on the trade off between investment and protection – reporting 2018
• DefraEvaluation of Partnership Funding – reporting imminently
• Committee on Climate Change studies – all reporting August 2018Assessment of the impact of future land use scenarios to 2050 and beyond
Research to define metrics for measuring progress in surface water flood risk management
Research to assess the economics of coastal change management in England and to determine potential adaptation pathways for a sample of exposed communities
Exploring the economics of land use change for increasing resilience to climate change in England
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Additional evidence being sought…
• Community resilience over multiple floods• Cost-effectiveness of different measures• Development, infrastructure and operational resilience• Effects of flooding on children and young people (Lancaster University)• FCERM contribution to economic development and regeneration• Making the business case – including wider benefits• NFM effectiveness of implementation• Overseas approaches to increasing resilience e.g. Australia and USA• Rural flood risk and interaction between land management and run off• SuDS effectiveness
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Working together to manage flooding and coastal change
Working collaboratively to address flood and coastal erosion risk
• What evidence themes would you like to see as part of the evidence base?
• What evidence sources should we include and could you share those with us?
