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Flood Risk in relation to Climate Change and Adaptation in the Netherlands
• Leonie Bolwidt•Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management•Rijkswaterstaat•Centre for Water Management
Toronto May 2008
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Climate change scenarios, 2050
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Sea level Rise (2100)
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Consequences Sea level rise
• The sea level continues to rise, also after 2100!
• Increase in coastal erosion
• Increase salt intrusion• Maintain coastal defence• Discharging river water to the sea becomes increasingly difficult
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
jan feb mrt apr mei jun jul aug sep okt nov dec
afv
oe
r R
ijn (
m3
/s)
+1 +2
G G+
W W+
Rhine discharge at Lobith (2050)
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Extreme discharges on the Rhine
Currently 16.000 m3/s
2100G - G+ about 18.000 m3/sW - W+ 19.000-20.000 m3/sLimitation of the discharge capacity, due to flooding in Germany
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Subsidence in 2050
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Land use in 2050
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Increase in flood risk
from sea from the large rivers Increasing upward seepage Increase in economic value of (low parts) of the Netherlands
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The National Adaptation Strategy (ARK)
Combined forces of 4 Ministries (Departments)Association of Provincial Authorities Association of Netherlands Municipalities Association of Water BoardsNon governmental organisationsPrivate sector- branch org. and “champions”Individual Provinces, cities, water boards etc.
Goal: Impuls to climate proofing the Netherlands
Focus here on floods/high water
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The ARK ProgrammeLooking back: the milestonesTriggered by Senate March ’05
Start and political backing: conference with Prime Minister Nov. ’05
ARK Programmedoc. approved by Council of Ministers March ’06
Consultation first draft strategy at three government levels Oct. ’06
Draft strategy (incl. first outline agenda) March ’07
Consultation Stakeholders – over 50 regular meetings Apr.-Jn ’07
Final strategy in Council of Ministers Nov. ’07
Strategy in Parliament and Senate Nov. ’07
Second national congress Nov. ’07
• end of the strategy phase
• start of the agenda phase
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The ARK process…Positioning the strategy
Pisano
Talenti
Giotto
Cathedral of Florence 1296-1887(bell tower)
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Giotto
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Pisano
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Talenti
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Goal: • Robustness Wide dikes
• Flexibility Easy to reboot electr.generators
• Adaptability Rapid proced., reserved space
The National Adaptation Strategy Analysis and leading principles - 1
Situation:• Probable trends Rise of sea level and
temperat.
• Extreme events Storms, high river dischargesCombinations of events
• Fundamental uncertainty Validity of statistics
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The National Adaptation Strategy Analysis and leading principles - 2
Risk management - Absolute safety does not exist- Prevention + reduce effects- Adjust risk & cost-benefit analysis for long term
investmentsNatural systems- Use natural functions of soil, water and air,- Restore natural systems en buffering functions- Create win-win situations for large scale spatial
structures (nature, water safety, tourism, landscape, economic activities)
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The National Adaptation StrategyGeneral actions
Start a public campaign for raising awareness Promote leading principles & stimulate research programs
Adjust procedures for decision making large scale developm. Assess projects in progress Review existing instruments (financial, legal)
Develop new instruments (revolving funds, stim. progr.) Small scale interventions (“climate buffers”) and “icons”
Monitor & evaluate the “transitions”
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1. Open debate
Not: ‘for and by governments’ or a technocratic problem
The National Adaptation StrategyChoices made in the process...
2. Ongoing, planned, future investments, plans, policies
Not: just new investments and programmes
5. Mainstream in 10 years
Not: blueprint or series of projects for the coming 50 years
4. Adaptation mainly by ‘combining work with work’
Not (yet): megaprojects just for adaptation
3. Innovation parallel to practice
Not: sequential; first research, than policyframes, laws, implementation
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The National Adaptation StrategyMainlines and theme-specific
actions KNMI-scenario’s: no major shift in investmentplans in West Nl.
We will take up the challenge NOW on ALL major effects:
1. Safety: spatial reservat. (long term) and speed up investments (short term)
Damage: more storagecapac.; experim. design, urban floodmngt; compart.
3. Quality of life/public health: green/blue veins in towns, subsid. restructr.
4. Nature: National Ecological Network: connect, transparent coat, EU-rules
2. Economy: reliable networks transport, electr.,water; key econ. areas access
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Examples (innovative) solutions?Super dike in Japan
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Examples (innovative) solutions?Climate robust spatial planning laws England
Levensduur bouwwerk
(jaar)
Zeespiegelstijging
10 0.1025 0.2050 0.40
100 0.85200 1.70
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Examples (innovative) solutions?Freeways: high (compartments)
or deep (landscape)
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Examples (innovative) solutions? Amphibian living
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Examples (innovative) solutions?
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Last comments..
We must start with anticipating on the coming changes instead of reacting after disasters!Examples from other countries of anticipating to climate change?Interested in the reports? Leave your email address with me!
Thank you for your attention!