FLOODING FROM THE RED RIVER THREATENS THE FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA
AREA AGAIN
RECORD- TO NEAR-RECORD FLOOD LEVELS THREE YEARS IN A ROW
SUNDAY, APRIL 9, 2011
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
FLOOD DISASTER RISK FLOOD DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONREDUCTION
•PREVENTION/MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA: 2011
National Guards walk the levee protecting Fargo from the rising Red River, which reached 39 feet on April 9th, short of the 2009 record
RISK ASSESSMENT: FLOODING FROM RED RIVER: APRIL-MAY 2011
• WHEN, WHERE, AND WHY WILL THE FLOODING OCCUR?
• HOW HIGH IS THE RIVER’S FLOOD STAGE?
• WHAT IS AT RISK?• VULNERABILITIES?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN
FLOODS
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER
WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)
EROSION AND MUDFLOWS
CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER
CAUSES OF RISK
CASE HISTORIES
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION
• REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES • MAPS: 100-YEAR AND
500-YEAR FLOODS• FLOOD DISASTER
SCENARIOS• DRONE PLANES• HAZMAT
MANAGEMENT
NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICALEVACUATION IS TYPICAL
FLOODS
HURRICANES
TYPHOONS
TSUNAMIS
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
WILDFIRES
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY
GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAYOF HARM’S WAY
LEARNING FROM THE PAST
PREPARATION WAS DIFFERENT IN 2011
• Both Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, MN., with a combined population of nearly 200,000, now have permanent and temporary dikes and levees reaching to at least 41 feet.
PREPARATION WAS DIFFERENT IN 2011
• The cities placed more than a million sandbags in advance.
• National Guard members were assigned to patrol all the flood defenses, augmented by un-manned drones.
PREPARATION WAS DIFFERENT IN 2011
• Fargo and Moorhead had reduced their vulnerability to floods by buying out homes in flood-prone areas, and purchasing miles of quick-install diking systems.
A BRIEF LOOK AT THE RECORD FLOODING OF
2009
LOOKING BACK• The record flood of 2009 forced
thousands to evacuate, inundated about 100 homes and caused an estimated $100 million in damage as the river crested at 40.84 feet.
• In 2010, the river crested at 36.99 feet, the sixth-highest crest on record
RECORD FLOODING THEN AND NOW WAS CAUSED BY
RAPID MELT OF A HEAVY SNOW PACK
MARCH 28-30, 2009