Economic & Market Research
Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season
Florida Agricultural Commodity & Policy Outlook Conference November 15, 2012
www.fdocgrower.com
Matthew J. Salois Director, Economic & Market Research Florida Department of Citrus
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Florida Citrus Outlook
2012-13 Season
Available on-line at:
http://www.fdocgrower.com/economics/economic-research/outlook-florida-citrus/
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Florida Orange Utilization
Item 10-11 11-12 12-13f
- - - - - - - million boxes - - - - - - -
Fresh 4.5 4.6 5.0
FCOJ 50.3 63.9 66.7
COJ 82.6 75.5 79.3
Non-Certified 1.5 1.5 1.5
Other 1.6 1.1 1.4
TOTAL 140.5 146.6 154.0 Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Country Shares of World OJ Production, 2008-12 Average
Brazil 57%
U.S. 31%
Other 12%
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Florida & Brazil Comparative Utilization of Round Oranges
Season
FLORIDA BRAZIL
Produc- tion
Utilization Produc- tion
Utilization
Fresh Proc. Fresh Proc.
- - - - - - - - - - million 90-lb. boxes - - - - - - - - - -
08-09 162.5 6.9 155.6 413 124 289
09-10 133.7 5.9 127.8 417 130 287
10-11 140.5 4.5 134.5 378 119 259
11-12 146.6 4.6 140.5 530 150 380
12-13f 154.0 5.0 147.5 467 153 314
Change 7.4 0.4 7.0 -63 3 -66 Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Florida & Brazil OJ Availability Item
July-June Season Chg % Chg
10-11 11-12 12-13f - - - - - - - - million SSE gallons - - - - - - -
FLORIDA Beg. Inventory 779 591 659 +68 +11.5
Production 864 927 955 +28 +3.0
Availability 1,643 1,518 1,614 +96 +6.3
BRAZIL Beg. Inventory 178 21 286 +265 +1,261.9
Production 1,525 2,054 1,755 -299 -14.56
Availability 1,703 2,075 2,040 -35 -1.69
TOTAL Beg. Inventory 958 612 944 +332 +54.25
Production 2,389 2,981 2,710 -271 -9.1
Availability 3,346 3,593 3,654 +61 +1.7 Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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FL OJ Availability, Movement & Inventory
Item 10-11 11-12 12-13f - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - million SSE gallons - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
Beg. Inventory 548.5 391.2 433.5
Production 864.0 926.6 955.2
Imports 102.6 109.3 90.3
Availability 1,515.0 1,427.1 1,479.1
Movement 1,123.8 993.6 1,077.6
End. Inventory 391.2 433.5 401.5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - million SSE gallons - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
Carryover 18.1 22.7 19.4
Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Nielsen OJ Gallon Sales Vs. U.S. OJ Consumption Nielsen: 96/97 – 09/10, FDM; All Outlets Combined thereafter
450550650750850950
1050115012501350145015501650
mil
sse
ga
l
Nielsen Retail US Consumption
Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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► Prices are critical variables for the various
economic projections in this report.
► Economic relationships between price trends and
other factors have been identified from which price
and volume forecasts can be developed.
► In the following slides, grower price, retail price
and market prices trends are shown.
► Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing,
nor Florida Department of Citrus staff opinion on
optimal pricing.
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Retail OJ Pricesa
$5.78
$5.94 $5.91
$5.53
$6.22 $6.11
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$ p
er
sse
ga
l
aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Nielsen OJ Prices Season FCOJ NFC RECON Other TOTAL
- - - - - - - - - - $ per SSE gallon - - - - - - - - - -
08-09 4.66 6.61 4.56 6.74 5.61
09-10 4.57 6.53 4.41 6.95 5.51
10-11 4.59 6.84 4.82 7.42 5.89
11-12p 4.75 7.18 5.05 8.41 6.23
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PROJECTIONSa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
12-13 low 4.36 6.87 4.37 9.25 5.78
12-13 mid 4.49 7.08 4.50 9.53 5.94
12-13 high 4.63 7.29 4.64 9.82 6.11 aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Nielsen OJ Sales Season FCOJ NFC RECON Other TOTAL
- - - - - - - - - million SSE gallons - - - - - - - - -
08-09 45 314 264 5 629
09-10 37 308 260 3 608
10-11 37 326 250 3 616
11-12p 32 315 220 2 569
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PROJECTIONSa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
12-13 low p. 33 354 244 2 632
12-13 mid p. 32 334 235 1 603
12-13 high p. 30 316 227 1 575 aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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U.S. OJ Supply & Consumption
Season Beg. Inv.
Fla Prod.
Other U.S.
Prod.
U.S. End. Inv.
Presumed Consumption
IMP EXP TOTAL Per
Capita
- - - - - - - - - - - - million SSE gallons - - - - - - - - - - - - Gallons
08-09 680 1,035 32 317 125 722 1,217 4.0
09-10 713 806 41 328 147 588 1,153 3.7
10-11 588 864 56 265 214 422 1,138 3.7
11-12p 422 927 39 238 150 474 1,002 3.2
12-13f 474 955 43 229 141 437 1,123 3.6
Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Florida Grapefruit Utilization
Item 10-11 11-12 12-13f
- - - - - - - - - million boxes - - - - - - - - - -
Fresh 7.7 7.2 8.0
FCGJ 7.0 6.9 7.2
CGJ 4.2 3.8 4.1
Non-Certified 0.7 0.7 0.7
Other 0.2 0.2 0.2
TOTAL Utilized 19.8 18.9 20.3
- - - - - - - million SSE gallons - - - - - - - -
GJ Availability 103.6 93.5 100.5 Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Fresh Grapefruit Shipments
Season Dom. Canada Europe Far
East Total
Exports Total
- - - - - - - - - - - - million cartons - - - - - - - - - - - - mil.
boxes
08-09 6.0 1.1 3.9 6.3 11.3 17.4 8.7
09-10 6.1 1.2 3.5 6.7 11.3 17.4 8.7
10-11 5.4 1.1 3.1 5.8 10.1 15.5 7.7
11-12 5.5 1.0 2.8 5.2 9.0 14.5 7.2
12-13f 5.8 1.1 3.2 6.0 10.2 16.0 8.0
Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Florida GJ Availability, Movement & Carryover
Item 10-11 11-12 12-13f
- - - - - - - - million SSE gallons - - - - - - - -
Beg. Inventory 42.1 33.1 36.5
Production 61.5 60.4 64.1
Availability 103.6 93.5 100.5
Movement 70.5 57.0 58.7
Domestic 40.8 35.4 34.0
Export 29.7 21.7 24.7
End. Inventory 33.1 36.5 41.8
GJ - - - - - - - - - - weeks supply - - - - - - - - - -
Carryover 24.4 33.2 37.1 Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Nielsen GJ Prices
Season FCGJ Refrig.
NFC
Refrig.
RECON
Shelf
Stable TOTAL
- - - - - - - - - $ per SSE gallon - - - - - - - -
09-10 4.48 6.66 4.92 6.03 6.34
10-11 4.53 6.98 5.55 5.80 6.50
11-12p 4.50 7.30 6.00 5.77 6.70
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PROJECTIONSa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
12-13 low 4.33 6.99 5.74 5.57 6.43
12-13 mid 4.46 7.20 5.92 5.74 6.62
12-13 high 4.60 7.42 6.09 5.92 6.82 aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Nielsen GJ Sales
Season FCGJ Refrig.
NFC
Refrig.
RECON
Shelf
Stable TOTAL
- - - - - - - million SSE gallons - - - - - - -
09-10 .5 12.3 .7 7.3 20.1
10-11 .5 12.6 .6 6.5 20.2
11-12p .4 11.5 .6 6.0 18.7
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - PROJECTIONSa - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
12-13 low p. .4 12.0 .6 6.3 19.4
12-13 mid p. .4 11.7 .6 6.1 18.9
12-13 high p. .4 11.4 .6 6.0 18.4 aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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U.S. GJ Supply & Consumption
Season
Florida Other U.S.
Prod.
U.S. FL End. Inv.
Presumed Consumption
Beg. Inv.
Prod. IMP EXP TOTAL Per
Capita
- - - - - - - - - - - - million SSE gallons - - - - - - - - - - - - Gallons
08-09 59 66 11 .5 34 47 57 .18
09-10 46 61 11 .6 23 42 54 .17
10-11 42 62 14 .4 30 33 56 .18
11-12p 33 61 11 .5 22 37 47 .15
12-13f 37 64 11 .6 25 42 46 .15
Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Specialty Citrus Utilization
Variety / Season Fresh Proc. Non-Cert. TOTAL
- - - - - - - - - million boxes - - - - - - - - -
Tangelos
2011-12p 0.34 0.72 0.10 1.15
2012-13f 0.40 0.70 0.10 1.20
Tangerines
2011-12p 2.55 1.45 0.30 4.30
2012-13f 2.60 1.50 0.30 4.40
TOTAL
2011-12p 2.89 2.17 0.40 5.45
2012-13f 3.00 2.20 0.40 5.60 Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Estimated 2012-13 Processed On-Tree Pricesa
Variety Del-In Price
Juice Yield
Del-In Price
Pick & Haul Cost
On-Tree Price
$/ps ps/box - - - - - - $/box - - - - - -
E & M 1.39 6.14 8.54 2.50 6.04
Valencia 1.49 6.46 9.63 2.70 6.93
White Gft. 1.35 5.08 6.83 2.96 3.86
Red Gft. 1.44 5.08 7.31 3.01 4.30
aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Processed Orange On-Tree Pricesa
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$ p
er
bo
x
Early-Mids Valencias
aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Processed Grapefruit On-Tree Pricesa
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$ p
er
bo
x
White Red
aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Estimated 2012-13 Fresh On-Tree Pricesa
Variety FOB Price
Packing Cost
Del-In Price
Pick & Haul Cost
On-Tree Price
- - $/carton - - - - - - - - - $/box - - - - - - -
Navels 14.50 5.60 17.80 2.60 15.20
E & M 11.75 5.60 12.30 2.60 9.70
Valencia 12.00 5.60 12.80 2.80 10.00
White Gft. 12.60 5.48 14.24 2.20 12.04
Red Gft. 11.70 5.38 12.64 2.25 10.39
Tangelos 11.75 5.83 11.84 2.75 9.09
Early T. 13.00 6.70 12.60 3.55 9.05
Honey T. 15.60 6.70 17.80 3.55 14.25 aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Florida Fresh Orange On-Tree Pricesa
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$ p
er
bo
x
Early-Mids Valencias Navels
aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Florida Fresh Grapefruit On-Tree Pricesa
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
$10.00
$12.50
$15.00
$17.50
$20.00
$22.50
$ p
er
bo
x
White Red
aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Florida Fresh Specialty On-Tree Pricesa
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
$ p
er
bo
x
Tangelos Early Tangerines Honey Tangerines
aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Florida On-Tree Revenuea
Item Fresh Processed TOTAL
11-12p 12-13f 11-12p 12-13f 11-12p 12-13f
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - million dollars - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Oranges 64.1 72.1 1,102.7 954.7 1,166.8 1,026.8
Grapefruit 84.4 92.7 51.0 48.0 135.4 140.7
Specialty 37.0 37.0 12.6 5.1 49.7 42.1
TOTAL 185.5 201.8 1,166.3 1,007.8 1,351.9 1,209.6
aAn analysis of economic trends that are likely to affect price suggests the ranges indicated. Nothing herein is meant to imply minimum pricing, nor Florida Department Of Citrus staff opinion on optimal pricing; Source: Florida Citrus Outlook 2012-13 Season, Working Paper 2012-1.
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Changes Between 2010-11 and 2011-12
• Total processed orange production-cultural costs increased 6% between 2010-11 and 2011-12.
• There was no significant changes in the total fresh market grapefruit production-cultural costs.
• Costs to manage citrus canker and HLB-greening and fertilizer and foliar nutrient costs account for 60% of total cultural costs
• Fertilizer prices increased more than 8.2% from 2011 to 2012.
• Spray chemical prices increased 2.7%.
• Labor & equipment application costs increased 2.6%.
Production/Cultural Costs
Source: Ron Muraro, UF-CREC, Lake Alfred.
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Executive Summary
• Projections for the 2012-13 season include:
–Increases in availability.
–Lower market prices.
–Increases in consumption.
–On-tree revenues remain at historically high levels.
