FM-S101-Climate Risks in the Philippines by Nathaniel Servando

7/30/2019 FM-S101-Climate Risks in the Philippines by Nathaniel Servando

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/fm-s101-climate-risks-in-the-philippines-by-nathaniel-servando 1/47

NATHANIEL T. SERVANDO Administrator, PAGASA

Depa rtment of Science and Technology Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Philippine Flood Management Knowledge Sharing Forum4-5 December 2012

Manila

Climate Risks in the

Philippines Angat Dam

The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the AsianDevelopment Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracyof the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may notnecessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_1/wiki/New_Orleans


http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.nidm.net/images/flood6.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.nidm.net/flood5_ii.asp&h=317&w=498&sz=16&tbnid=xQsMwHR6MnYJ::&tbnh=83&tbnw=130&prev=/images?q=flood+disaster+pics&usg=__OxfdyzuXcEc7in4yM2hADUqjZi8=&sa=X&oi=image_result&resnum=2&ct=image&cd=1




Outline of Presentation

1. PAGASA in a nutshell2. Philippines’ vulnerability to extreme

climate/flood events

3. Brief Climatology, Trends and Projections4. Initiatives and Current projects to improve

PAGASA’s early warning services

5. Challenges, opportunities and WAY FORWARD



PAGASA in a Nutshell

Philippine, Atmospheric, Geophysical &Astronomical Services Administration

(PAGASA) - Presidential Decree No. 78 (Dec.

1972) as amended by PD No. 1149 (June 1977)

PAGASA Headquarter

Agham Road, Diliman, QC.

The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized body of the United Nations.

The PAGASA Administrator is the Permanent Representative with WMO.

PAGASA is a Member of the NDRRMC.

PAGASA is an attached agency of the Departmentof Science and Technology (DOST)

The nation’s meteorological &

hydrological service (NMHS)To provide weather, flood, climate and astronomical

products & services to promote the people’s safety and

well-being, and contribute to national development





PAGASA in a Nutshell

Operational Division

PAGASA in a Nutshell: OrganizationalChart

weather Dry

spell/droughtsfloods




NETWORK OF PAGASA STATIONS

EXISTING MONITORING

WEATHER STATIONS1. Synoptic Stations (Manual) 58

2. Agromet Stations (Manual) 21

3. CLIMAT Rain Stations (Manual) 75

4. Upper Air Stations 6

5. Automatic Weather Stations (10 m windmast) AWS(ASTI) - 2 meter wind mast

73

80

6. Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG) - PAGASA

Automatic Rain Gauge - ASTI – PREDICT

87

100/91

7. Marine Bouy 2

8. Wind profiler 1

9. RADAR Stations (Existing 10



Existing telemetered gauging stations in major riverbasins & reservoirs

River basin / dam RR WL Date1. Pampanga river basin 17 10 1973

2. Agno river basin 12 9 1983

3. Bicol river basin 11 7 1983

4. Cagayan river basin 5 5 1983

5. Pasig-Marikina-LagunaLake

EFCOS (MMDA)

KOICA (PAGASA)

ASTI (DOST)

7

17

11

16

33

1993

2012

6. Angat dam 4 2 19865. Pantabangan dam 5 1 1986

6. Binga/Ambuklao dam 6 2 1992

7. San Roque dam 3 2 2003

8. Magat dam 6 2 1992

9. Ipo/La Mesa dam 2 2 2011

Monitored telemetered major reservoirs

Monitored telemetered major river basins (5)



2Philippines’

Vulnerability toExtreme Climate/Flood

Events



The nature of hazards in the Philippines

Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster

http://e/antipolo/Users/PAGASA/wiki/2002



Why is the Philippines prone toflooding?

Meteorological factors:

The climate of the PH is

influenced by thecomplex interactions ofvarious factors such as :

Philippine Geography andTopography

Linear systems

Principal Air Streams

Semi-permanent cyclonesand anti-cyclones

Tropical Cyclones

ENSO (El Niño/La Niña)

Ocean currents



Extreme flood / flash flood events in the PH

1. 1972 flood in Central Luzon – due to 4 storms in July to August

2. 1979 flood in Bulacan due to unprecedented spill of Angat dam

3. 1991 flash flood in Ormoc City due to Typhoon Uring

4. 2004 flood in Pangasinan & Pampanga and flash floods in

Infanta & Quezon provinces due to passages of Typhoons

Violata, Winnie and Yoyong

5. 2006 floods/flashflood in Albay due to passage of TyphoonReming (Durian)

6. 2008 floods/flashflood in Panay Island due to passage of

Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)

7. 2009 floods in Metro Manila & surrounding provinces &

Pangasinan due to spill of San Roque dam8. 2011 floods in Central Luzon (Typhoons Pedring & Quiel) and

Cagayan de Oro and Iligan cities (Tropical Storm Sendong)

9. 2012 floods in Metro Manila & surrounding provinces due to

the surge of the Southwest monsoon



Aug 2004 floods in Pangasinan & Pampanga and flashfloods in Infanta & Quezon provinces

Mosaic of

Dingalan

town and

vicinityshowing

flood/

flashflood

hazard

analysis.(Data: 2005

aerial

photographs,

courtesy of

ICDAI) Source: Cruz, et al, 2005



29 Nov 2006 flood/flashflood in Albay province

DeadAffected

populationTotal

Damage

734 2.0M P5.5B

TY Reming



June 2008 flood/flash flood in the Iloilo province



26 Sep 2009 flooding in Metro Manila & surroundingprovinces

Bankoff (2003) described that Metro Manila’s vulnerability to flooding has

evolved as a result of the degree of interplay between climate, topography,

resource use, and culture over time.

TS Ondoy



Causes of flooding in Metro Manila and surrounding areas on

26 September 2009 – due to passage of TS Ketsana

Insufficient carryingcapacities

Intense rainfall

High/dense population

High rate ofurbanization

Deforestation

Informal settlers

Unabated/rampantdevelopment

Insufficient warnings

09 O b 2009 fl d i P i d h ill




09 October 2009 floods in Pangasinan due to the spillof San Roque dam

TY Pepeng



Sep - Oct 2011 floods in Central Luzon (Typhoons Pedring & Quiel)

Fl h fl d i C d O & Ili iti 16 D



Flash flood in Cagayan de Oro & Iligan cities on 16 Dec2011 due to passage of TS Washi (Sendong)



Hourly Rainfall at Science Garden during the passage of TS Ondoy & Habagat

R a i n f a l l ( m m )

Comparison with TS Ondoy

The big volume of rainfall (500mm) brought about by TS Ondoy increased

abruptly over 24 hours whereas during Habagat the 500mm of rainfall was

accumulated gradually over 48 hours.

300 mm in 6hrs

(TS Ondoy)

300 mm in 22 hrs

Habagat



HABAGAT DAMAGES (As of 14 August 2012-NDRRMC)

AffectedPopulation

Casualties Infrastructure Agriculture FloodedAreas

825,018

families /

3,742,674

persons

Dead: 95 P 639,128,230.00 P

1,624,410,815.14

56 Cities/

Municipalities

from NCR,

Reg. 3 &

IV-A

Wh i h Phili i d h ?



Why is the Philippines prone to droughts?IMPACTS OF SELECTED EL NIÑO EVENT ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL

1997-98, About 70% of the

Philippines experienceddrought

1987-88, moderate drought

impacts

1977-88, total loss of 7.5 x105 MT of rice & corn

production1977-88, loss of 6.4 x 10 5 MT of rice & corn production; insurance claims P38M; Hydropower generation loss P316M

ALL DROUGHT OCCURRENCES ARE ENSO-RELATED (El Niño)

2007 D ll



2007 Dry spell

• Cordillera Autonomous Region

(CAR)

• Region I

• Region II

• Central Luzon

• Metro Manila

Affected Areas: (2007 Dry spell)

State of calamity in La UnionPhilippine Star Jul 31, 2007

Ñ



EL NIÑOManifestations

Tropical Cyclones During August 2004 El Niño

During El Niño, there are cases where tropical cyclones are not rain-effective



The last El Niño

episode started June2009 and ended May2010

EL NIÑO IMPACTS ANGAT DAM



3

Brief Climatology, Trends

and Projections



Seasonal Rainfall Distribution in the PhilippinesAVERAGE RAINFALL

APRIL-SEPTEMBER(1951-2000First

semestral

AVERAGE RAINFALLOCTOBER-MARCH

(1951-2000Second

semestral

Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the



Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in thePhilippines

Tropical cyclone statistics in PH



Tropical cyclone statistics in PHDISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE

(TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:1970-2010

TC NAME Date of OccurrenceTotal damage

in Billion PhP

TY_PEPENG (Parma)Sep 30 - Oct 102009 27.296722

TY PEDRING SEP 24- 28, 2011 15.552000

TY FRANK

(Fengshen) Jun 18 – 23, 2008 13.500000

TY JUAN (Megi) Oct16 – 21, 2010 11.500000

TS_ONDOY(Ketsana) Sep 24 – 27, 2009 10.952198

TY_RUPING NOV 8-14, 1990 10.846000

DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE

Number of Casualties > 300

TC NAME Date of Occurrence Casualties

TS Uring * Nov 1-6, 1991 5101

TS Sendong (Washi) * Dec 15-17, 2011 1268

TY Nitang Aug 31 – Sep 4, 1984 1029

TY Trix Oct 17-23, 1952 995

TY Amy Dec 6-11, 1951 991

TY Rosing Oct 30-Nov 4, 1995 936

MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC

TC NAMEMaximum

Wind (kph)

Date of

Occurrence

TY Reming 320 (Virac) Nov 30, 2006

TY Loleng 287 (Virac) Oct 21, 1998

TY Anding 280 (Virac) Nov 27, 1981

TY Sening 276 (Virac) Oct 13, 1970

TY Wening 269 (Aparri) Oct 27, 1974

TY Trining 269 (Masbate) Dec 15, 1987

MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC

TC NAMEMaximum 24-hour

rainfall (mm)

Date of

Occurrence

TY Feria 1085.8 (Baguio) July 4, 2001

TY Iliang 994.6(Baguio) Oct 14, 1998

TY Trining 979.4 (Baguio) Oct 17, 1967

TY Susang 781.4 (Baguio) Oct 11, 1974

TY Trining 760.0 (Baguio) Oct 27, 1991

TY Ditang 730.3(Baguio) May 15, 1980

*The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong werecharacterized by flashfloods.

Increasing cost of Damage

Trends & impacts of flooding in Metro Manila



Trends & impacts of flooding in Metro Manila

Source: HMD, PAGASA

Metro Manila’s regional GDP in 2008

was 468 billion PHP (NationalStatistical Coordination Board).Damage costs range from 3% of GDP

(SQ-EX-10) to 24% (A1FI-EX-100).

Climate change costs represent 1%(1-in-10 flood), 6% (1-in-30 flood) &10% (1-in-100 flood) of GDP.

Source: Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities: A Synthesis Report, 2010, ADB, JICA, WB

WithoutCC

With CC

Impacts of flooding



Impacts of flooding

There is no single description for ‘floods’. Rather there are

different situations such as flash floods, monsoon flooding and

wind storms such as tropical cyclones. The scale of floods in

the Philippines is increasing, as is the number of floods.

Source: Office of Civil Defense

CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS



Observed mean temperature has increased by 0.64 ºC during the last 60 years (1951-2010). Projected increase of 1 to 2.0ºC under a medium emission scenario is expected by 2020 & 2050 and 0.7 to 1.7 ºC increase under a high emissionscenario. The figure shows that it is only after 2050 that the temperature increase showing the climate response to high ormedium range scenarios will start to diverge. This is due to the fact that Ghg gases already in the atmosphere have longlifetimes and will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize.





Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall(%)

Dry seasons

becoming drier.

Wet seasons

becoming wetter.

Medium-range Emission Scenario

2020 2050

Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) -0.4 to 54.3 % -0.1 to-25.1-%

Mar-Apr-May (MAM) -0.2 to -33.3% -1.4 to -39.8%Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) -0.4 to 43.1% -0.7 to 72.5%

Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) -0.4 to 30.0% -0.5 to 39.0%





0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

R a i n f a l l A m o u n t ( m m )

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0

Davao

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0





Hinatuan

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0



Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0

Casiguran

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0





Dumaguete

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0



Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0

Baguio

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0




under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0Iloilo

OBS

2020

2050

Monthly Rainfall Projections for Medium-range emissionscenario (A1B) By Climate type


POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE



POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE



4.Current initiatives and projects

to improve PAGASA’s early

warning services



“tracking the sky…helping the country”

Integrated High Performance Computing System (iHPCS)

Rolling-out of Climate Change Projection Scenarios Information

Redundant Communication System

Warning System for Marine and Air Navigation and Transport

Rolling-out of Automated Weather Stations, Raingauges, andWater Level Sensors

IEC on hydrometeorological hazards

Mapping of Real-Time/Historical Hazard Events

E h f R d k

http://www.atrexx.com/images/aktuelles/Image/BGAN_Mobile_Broadband_400.jpg



Enhancement of Radar network

TAGAYTAY

SUBIC BALER

BAGUIO

TAMPACAN

APARRI

MACTAN

GUIUAN

HINATUAN

VIRAC

BUSUANGA

ILOILO

QUEZON

ZAMBOANGA

UPDATES:

Operational

Baguio

Subic

Tagaytay

Virac

Mactan

Hinatuan

Construction – On-going

Guiuan

Under testing &commissioning

Aparri, Tampacan

Under bidding process

Busuanga, Iloilo, Quezon &Zamboanga

Mobile Doppler Radar

ENSO VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE




Rolling-out of Climate ChangeProjection Scenarios Information

Seasonal Climate Forecast

ENSO/Drought Monitoring

Agrometeorological forecasts andimpact assessments

ENSO VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGEADAPTATION MEASURES

Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services




Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services



Thunderstorm Warning System:

be

website

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

Challenges opportunities & WAY FORWARD



Challenges, opportunities & WAY FORWARD

1. Establishment of FFWS Centers (buildings) in the other 13 major

river basins in the country

2. Assist NOAH project in the installation of 1000 monitoring stations(rainfall & water level gauges in major river and principal river

basins)

3. Operationalization of the KOICA2 Project

4. Enhancement of flood forecasts showing the extent or limits of

inundation – NOAH program (DOST)

5. Continue flood hazard mapping activities (1:10K)

6. Integration and harmonization of activities under various local &

foreign- assisted project which will are on-going and to be

implemented in 2013

7. Adoption of the newly upgraded Dam & Flood warning protocols

8. Promotion of Community Based Flood Early Warning System(CBFEWS)

9. Develop/ adopt new methods for long-term /seasonal forecast (i.e.

combined statistical and dynamical approach)

Establishment of FFWS Centers in 13 Major River



Establishment of FFWS Centers in 13 Major RiverBasins in 2013 - PAGASA

18 Major river basins River Basin Location Area, km2

1 Abulog Luzon 3,372 2 Abra Luzon 5,125

3 Panay Visayas 1,843

4 Jalaur Visayas 1,503

5 Ilog-Hilabangan Visayas 1,945

6 Agusan Mindanao 10,621

7 Agus-Lake Lanao Mindanao 1,645

8 Cagayan de Oro Mindanao 1,521

9 Tagum-Libuganon

Mindanao 3,064

10 Davao Mindanao 1,623

11 Buayan-Malungun

Mindanao 1,434

12 Taglaoan Mindanao 1,704

13 Mindanao Mindanao 23,169

National Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH)




National Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH)Project – DOST and UP

Operationalization of the KOICA2 Project: Establishment of




p j Establishment ofEarly Warning & Monitoring System for Metro Manila

EFCOS Monitoring & Warning system- 7 rainfall stations- 10 water level stations

- 9 Warning posts (Manggahan Floodway

KOICA2 Project

KOICA Monitoring & warning system- 7 rainfall stations & 10 water level stations

- 4 automatic weather stations (AWS)- 19 warning posts in Pasig-Marikina & Nangka rivers

Integration of existing & proposed monitoringsystems – Resilience project (UNDP-CIDA)

Various projects for implementation in 2013



Various projects for implementation in 2013No. Project Title Study/Pilot Area/Basin Donor Duration

1 Establishment of FFWS Centers in 13 major river

basin (”RIVER CENTERS” Project)

4-5 Centers in 2013; the rest in

2014

GoP (2013 GAA) 2013 - 2014

2 GMMA Risk Assessment Project (RAP) GMMA AusAID/GA 2010-2013

3 Strengthening of Flood Forecasting and Warning

System in the Bicol River Basin (“BICOL Project”)

Bicol River Basin Government of

Japan (GoJ)

2010-2013

4 Strengthening of Flood Forecasting and Warning

System on Magat Dam and downstream

communities (“Norad Project”)

Magat watershed Norad 2010 - 2013

5 Building Community Resilience and Strengthening

Local Government Capacities for Recovery and

Disaster Risk Management (“Resilience Project”)

GMMA UNDP/ CIDA 2010 - 2013

6 UNDP Ready for GMMA Project Laguna, Rizal, Cavite & Bulacan UNDP/ AusAID 2010 - 2013

7 Applying Remote Sensing Technology in River Basin

Management in Philippines

Cagayan River Basin ADB/ JAXA 2013

8 Supporting Investments in Water-Related Disaster

Management

Cagayan River Basin ADB/ ICHARM 2013

9 Ecotown Demonstration Framework on Vulnerability

and Adaptation Assessment (V&A) of Vulnerable

Areas to Climate Change

Siargao Island and Palawan GGGI/CCC 2012 - 2013

10 Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate

Change Adaptation (DRR/CCA) in Local development

Planning and Decision-making Process

Al l 13 Regions and 82 provinces UNDP/ AusAID &

NZAP /NEDA

2012 - 2013

11 Enabling the Cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan to

Cope with Climate Change (“Project Climate TwinPhoenix ”)

Cagayan de Oro and Mandulog

river basins

UNDP/AusAID 2013 - 2014

Various projects for implementation in 2013



Various projects for implementation in 2013No. Project Title Study/Pilot Area/Basin Donor Duration

12 Establishment of a Pilot Automatic Warning System

(AWS) in Cagayan de Oro River Basin

CDO river basin NDMI / MOPAS,

Korea

2013

13 Resilience Capacity Building for Cities andMunicipalities to Reduce Disaster Risks from Climate

Change and Natural Hazards (“ReBUILD Project”)

Regions 2 (CRB), 3 (PRB)and 6 (Jalaur, Aklan,

Panay, Ilog-Hilabangan)

UNDP/ NZAP 2013 - 2015

14 Counterplan for Extra-ordinary Flood Pampanga river basin UNESCAP/

WMO/ TC / KICT

2012 - 2014

15 Data Collection Survey on Situation of nationwide

Flood Forecasting and Warning System

All major river basins;

Mandulog river basin

JICA 2013

16 Operationalization of KOICA2 Project Pasig-Marikina river basin KOICA 2013

17 Disaster Preparedness & Response Project Benguet, Cagayan,

Laguna, & Sorsogon

UN-WFP 2013

18 FAO-A MICAF Project (Modeling System for

Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)

FAO/Gov. of

Japan thru DA

2012-2013

19. Philippine Climate Change Adaptation Project

(PhilCCAP)

Region 2, Region 6 World Bank 2011-2015

20.



The source of man's unhappinessis his ignorance of Nature.

- Paul Henry Thiry d'Holbach

www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph


Date post:	04-Apr-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	adbwaterforall
View:	219 times
Download:	0 times

FM-S101-Climate Risks in the Philippines by Nathaniel Servando

Documents