FOARAM Neg

T

1NC – Exploration/DevelopmentBefore we get into the substance of this debate, we will begin by discussing the stock issue of Topicality, or whether or not the affirmative falls under the bounds of the resolution. The resolution for this year is as follows: Resolved: The United States federal government should substantially increase its non-military exploration and/or development of the Earth’s oceans.The affirmative plan clearly does not meet this resolution—monitoring is not explorationSarah Grimes, program manager at the Perth Regional Programme Office of UNESCO's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, 12[Sarah, 2/15/2012, SciDev.Net, “Ocean science for sustainable development: Facts and figures”, http://www.scidev.net/global/fisheries/feature/ocean-science-for-sustainable-development-facts-and-figures-1.html. Accessed 7/5/2014 CK]Even so, much of the ocean remains unexplored in spite of our growing recognition of its role in sustainable

development. Since the early 1990s, governments and researchers in both developed and developing countries have made strong commitments to ongoing ocean monitoring — especially of physical measures such as temperature and salinity and, more recently, the biological components.

They also do not meet the definition of exploration – it must be open endedMcNutt, President And Chief Executive Officer, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute 2006 - (Marcia, Prepared Testimony, UNDERSEA RESEARCH AND OCEAN EXPLORATION: H.R. 3835, THE NATIONAL OCEAN EXPLORATION PROGRAM ACT OF 2005 AND THE UNDERSEA RESEARCH PROGRAM ACT OF 2005, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-109hhrg28758/html/CHRG-109hhrg28758.htm)

Ocean exploration is distinguished from research by the fact that exploration leads to questions, while research leads to answers. When one undertakes exploration, it is without any preconceived notion

of what one might find or who might benefit from the discoveries . Research, on the other hand, is undertaken to test a certain hypothesis, with the clear understanding of the benefits of either supporting or refuting the hypothesis under consideration. Often novel discoveries are made accidentally in the process of performing hypothesis-driven research, but with a purposeful exploration program, those discoveries are more likely to be appreciated for what they are, properly documented, and followed-up. Here is a concrete example. One of the greatest surprises in oceanography in the 20th century was the discovery of the hot-vent communities, deep-sea oases that thrive in sea water geothermally heated to several hundred degrees centigrade. These animals form an entire ecosystem completely independent of the sun's energy, and their existence opens up huge new possibilities for how life might be sustained elsewhere in the universe. This discovery led to a host of new research questions. What is the energy source for this new style of community? How do proteins fold at such high temperatures? By what reproductive strategy do deep-sea vent organisms manage to find and colonize new, isolated vent systems as the old ones die? These are important questions, but ones that we would not know enough to even ask had the discovery not happened. And it almost didn't. The shipboard party involved was entirely geologists and geophysicists. There wasn't a single biologist on board to appreciate the significance of what was to become the most important discovery in marine biology. Ever. Lacking basic biological supplies, the geophysicists had to sacrifice all of their vodka to preserve the novel specimens they collected. Such discoveries don't need to be rare, accidental, or potentially unappreciated with a strong, vigorous, and systematic ocean exploration program. I created a graphic (Figure 1) to show how NOAA's OE program might ideally relate to the broader ocean research agenda and to the NURP program. The

upper box is meant to represent NOAA's Ocean Exploration program. New discoveries are made by exploring new places, and/or by deploying new tools which ``see'' the ocean in new dimensions. With roughly 95 percent of the ocean still unexplored, and new tools that image the physics, chemistry, biology, and geology of the ocean at all scales being developed constantly, the opportunities for discovery are virtually limitless. The greatest strength of having a federal organization such as NOAA leading this effort is

the fact that it can undertake a systematic, multi-disciplinary exploration of the ocean. However, if I had to identify NOAA's weakness in terms of being the lead agency for this effort, it is the fact that NOAA is not widely known for its prowess in developing new technology. For this reason, I support the provision in H.R. 3835 that establishes an interagency task force which includes NASA and ONR to facilitate the transfer of new exploration technology to the program.

Topicality is an a-priori stock issue that must always come first when making your decision – if they are not topical, the affirmative is not fulfilling their job of proving the resolution to be true, and should therefore lose.

Inherency

1NC – Other AgenciesA multitude of agencies are already spending vast resources on ocean acidification research – the affirmative is wholly unnecessaryUnited States Government Accountability Office 2014 [“OCEAN ACIDIFICATION”, September 2014, http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/665777.pdf] TYBG

In addition to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Science Foundation, and the National Aeronautics

and Space Administration (NASA), eight other federal agencies are part of the interagency working group on ocean acidification but were not required by the Federal Ocean Acidification Research and Monitoring Act of 2009 (FOARAM) to take specific steps related to ocean acidification.1 • Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. The bureau has conducted research and monitoring of ocean acidification conditions in areas of the outer continental shelf where there are ongoing or proposed energy development projects, including in the Arctic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico . Nonetheless, these agencies have taken a variety of actions

to support the federal response to ocean acidification. For example: 2 • Department of State. The department has contributed funding to help establish an international coordination center for ocean acidification, housed at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s environmental laboratories in Monaco. The center is

intended to support international monitoring systems and research. The department has also worked to share technical expertise with other countries . For example, it cosponsored a workshop with the government of New Zealand that brought

together shellfish experts from both countries to share their experiences with ocean acidification. • Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). EPA has issued final regulations and proposed other regulations under the Clean Air Act to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, including the carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to ocean acidification.3 EPA has also issued guidance to help states address ocean acidification under the Clean Water Act.4 • U.S. Department of Agriculture. The department has funded research related to ocean acidification, including research to better understand the effects of ocean acidification on shellfish aquaculture and how to adapt aquaculture operations to minimize those effects. In addition, EPA is conducting research in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, to better understand the contributions of nutrient pollution to ocean acidification in estuarine and

coastal environments. 5 It also administers agricultural conservation programs that provide billions of dollars in assistance to farmers to reduce nutrient pollution—one of the factors contributing to ocean acidification—and achieve other conservation objectives.6 • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The service has updated its planning requirements to include ocean acidification as a potential factor to consider in drafting conservation plans and vulnerability analyses

for marine and coastal national wildlife refuges.7 • U.S. Geological Survey. The Geological Survey has researched ocean acidification and its effects by collecting data on ocean chemistry at different locations and studying the effects of acidification on certain species. For example, one of the areas the agency has focused on is the West Florida Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, where it has studied spatial and temporal variations in carbon chemistry and the effects of ocean

acidification on the growth of calcifying organisms. The agency, in conjunction with the U.S. Coast Guard, also monitored ocean chemistry in the Arctic Ocean from 2010 through 2012, documenting that about 20 percent of the area was undersaturated with respect to aragonite, according to an agency official. In addition, it is considering establishing coral reefs located in national wildlife refuges, which are often in remote areas and experience little human disturbance, as “sentinel sites” where the service can monitor the effects of ocean acidification . 8 • U.S. Navy. The Navy has monitored research on ocean acidification conducted by others to assess any potential implications for naval operations. One implication for naval operations described in the research and monitoring plan is the potential for ocean acidification to threaten the food supply in areas of the world that are heavily dependent on marine resources for food, which, in turn, could lead to increased political instability in those regions.9 The Navy has also helped fund research on the effects that ocean acidification might have on how sound travels through water, because of its potential impact on sonar systems, which are important to naval operations.

1NC – NOAANOAA is already making a concerted effort to resolve acidificationKelly House, Writer for the Oregonian, 2014 [“NOAA offers $1.4 million to help shellfish growers track ocean acidification”, December 17th 2014, http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2014/12/noaa_offers_14_million_to_help.html] TYBG

That National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is ponying up $1.4 million to help West Coast shellfish growers and scientists address ocean acidification . The new three-year grant will help commercial shellfish growers find ways to adapt their oyster and mussel-rearing businesses to keep the animals from dying when waves of carbon dioxide-saturated water come through. High levels of carbon dioxide throw the water’s chemistry out of balance, making it difficult for bivalves to form their shells. The phenomenon has contributed to

massive shellfish die-offs throughout the Northwest. Burke Hales, an Oregon State University professor who developed a machine that detects chemical changes in the water, will be the leading expert on the project . Shellfish growers will learn how to monitor ocean acidification levels, and will collaborate with Hales and other scientists along the West Coast to develop more affordable, accurate sensors that measure changes in ocean’s chemistry . The grant announcement is the latest development in NOAA’s ongoing effort to combat carbon dioxide’s damaging effects on ocean life. Earlier this fall, the agency announced the launch of a new web-based tool that tracks ocean acidification along the West Coast. The announcement follows Oregon State University researchers’ discovery this fall that ocean acidification isn’t caused by carbon dioxide alone, but the imbalance created when carbon dioxide rises without a concurrent rise in seawater calcium carbonate levels.

Acidification Advantage

1NC – NOAA-GateNOAA is a fraudulent agency that produces inaccurate scientific dataMarta Noon, executive director for Energy Makes America Great Inc., 2014 (Noon, Marta, 12/22/14, " What if Obama’s Climate Change Policies are based on pHraud?", Heartland,news.heartland.org/editorial/2014/12/22/what-if-obamas-climate-change-policies-are-based-phraud, accessed 1/15/14)

“Ocean acidification” (OA) is claimed to be a phenomenon that will destroy ocean life—all due to mankind’s use of fossil fuels. The claim of OA

is a critical scientific foundation to the full spectrum of climate change assertions. Dr. Richard A. Feely is a senior scientist with the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)—part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA) . His four-page report: Carbon Dioxide and Our Ocean Legacy, offered on the NOAA website, contains a chart titled “Historical & Projected pH & Dissolved Co2,” which shows a decline in seawater pH (making it more acidic) that appears to coincide with

increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Mike Wallace is a hydrologist with nearly 30 years’ experience, who is now working on his Ph.D. in nanogeosciences at the University of New Mexico. In the course of his studies, he

uncovered something that he told me: “eclipses even the so-called climategate event.” Feely’s work is based on computer models that don’t line up with real-world data —which Feely acknowledged in email communications with Wallace. Feely , and his coauthor Dr. Christopher L. Sabine, PMEL Director, omitted 80 years of data, which incorporate more than 2 million records of ocean pH levels . The Feely chart began in 1850, which caught Wallace’s attention since similar charts all began in 1988. Needing the historic pH data for a project, he went to the source. The NOAA paper with the chart lists Dave Bard, with Pew Charitable Trust, as the contact. Wallace sent Bard an email: “I’m looking in fact for the source references for the red curve in their plot which was labeled ‘Historical & Projected pH & Dissolved Co2.’ This plot is at the top of the second page. It covers the period of my interest.” Bard responded and suggested that Wallace communicate with Feely and Sabine—which he did over a period of several

months. Wallace asked again for the “time series data (NOT MODELING) of ocean pH for 20th century .” Sabine responded by saying that it was inappropriate for Wallace to question their “motives or quality of our science,” adding that if he continued in this manner, “you will not last long in your career.” He then included a few links to websites that Wallace, after spending hours reviewing them, called “blind alleys.” Sabine concludes the email with: “I

hope you will refrain from contacting me again.” But communications did continue for several more exchanges. In an effort to obtain access to the records Feely/Sabine didn’t want to provide, Wallace filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request . In a May 25, 2013 email, Wallace offers some statements, which he asks Feely/Sabine to confirm: “…it is possible that Dr. Sabine WAS partially responsive to my request. That could only be possible however, if only data from 1989 and later was used to develop the 20th century portion of the subject curve.” “…it’s possible that Dr. Feely also WAS partially responsive to my request. Yet again, this could not be possible unless the measurement data used to define 20th century ocean pH for their curve, came exclusively from 1989 and later (thereby omitting 80 previous years of ocean pH 20th century measurement data, which is the very data I'm hoping to find).” Sabine writes: “Your statements in italics are essentially correct.” He adds: “The rest of the curve you are trying to reproduce is from a modeling study that Dr. Feely

has already provided and referenced in the publication.” In his last email exchange, Wallace offers to close out the FOIA because the email string “clarified that your subject paper (and especially the ‘History’ segment of the

associated time series pH curve) did not rely upon either data or other contemporary representations for global ocean pH over the period of time between the first decade of 1900 (when the pH metric was first devised, and ocean pH values likely were first instrumentally measured and recorded) through and up to just before 1988.” Wallace received no reply, but the FOIA

was closed in July 2013 with a “no document found” response. Interestingly, in this same general timeframe, N OAA reissued its World Ocean Database. Wallace was then able to extract the instrumental records he sought and turned the glass electrode pH meter data into a meaningful time series chart, which reveals that the oceans are not acidifying . Regarding the chart in question, Wallace concluded: “They replaced that (historical) part of their curve through the execution of an epic data omission—which was apparently the only way that ocean scientists have been able to assert that the oceans are acidifying.”

1NC – AdaptationNo impact to ocean acidification – it’s over-exaggerated and species can adaptRidley, British Scientist and Journalist, 12 (Matt, Jan 7, “Taking Fears of Acid Oceans With a Grain of Salt”, Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052970203550304577138561444464028, Tang)Coral reefs around the world are suffering badly from overfishing and various forms of pollution. Yet many experts argue that the greatest threat to them is the acidification of the oceans from the dissolving of man-made carbon dioxide emissions. The effect of acidification, according to J.E.N. Veron, an Australian coral scientist, will be "nothing less than catastrophic.... What were once thriving coral gardens that supported the greatest biodiversity of the marine realm will become red-black bacterial slime, and they will stay that way." Humans have

placed marine life under pressure, but the chief culprits are overfishing and pollution. John S. Dykes This is a common view. The Natural Resources Defense Council has called ocean acidification "the scariest environmental problem you've never heard of." Sigourney Weaver, who narrated a film about the issue, said that "the scientists are freaked out." The head of the

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls it global warming's "equally evil twin." But do the scientific data support such alarm? Last month scientists at San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other authors published a study showing how much the pH level (measuring alkalinity versus acidity) varies naturally between parts of the ocean and at different times of the day, month and year. "On both a monthly

and annual scale, even the most stable open ocean sites see pH changes many times larger than the annual rate of acidification, " say the authors of the study, adding that because good instruments to measure ocean pH have only recently been deployed, "this variation has been under-appreciated." Over coral reefs, the pH

decline between dusk and dawn is almost half as much as the decrease in average pH expected over the next 100 years. The noise is greater than the signal. Another recent study , by scientists from the U.K., Hawaii and Massachusetts, concluded that "marine and freshwater assemblages have always experienced variable pH conditions," and that "in many

freshwater lakes, pH changes that are orders of magnitude greater than those projected for the 22nd-century oceans can occur over periods of hours ." This adds to other hints that the ocean-acidification problem may have been exaggerated . For a start, the ocean is alkaline and in no danger of becoming acid (despite headlines like that from Reuters in 2009: "Climate Change Turning Seas Acid"). If the average pH of the ocean drops to 7.8 from 8.1 by

2100 as predicted, it will still be well above seven, the neutral point where alkalinity becomes acidity. The central concern is that lower pH will make it hard er for corals, clams and other "calcifier" creatures to make calcium carbonate skeletons and shells. Yet this concern also may be overstated . Off Papua New Guinea and the Italian

island of Ischia, where natural carbon-dioxide bubbles from volcanic vents make the sea less alkaline, and off the Yucatan, where underwater springs make seawater actually acidic, studies have shown that at least some kinds of calcifiers still thrive—at least as far down as pH 7.8. In a recent experiment in the Mediterranean, reported in Nature Climate Change, corals and mollusks were transplanted to lower pH sites, where they proved "able to calcify and grow at even faster than normal rates when exposed to the high [carbon-dioxide] levels projected for the next 300 years." In any case, freshwater mussels thrive in Scottish rivers, where the pH is as low as five. Laboratory experiments find that more marine creatures thrive than suffer when carbon dioxide lowers the pH level to 7.8. This is because the carbon dioxide dissolves mainly as bicarbonate, which many calcifiers use as raw material for carbonate. Human

beings have indeed placed marine ecosystems under terrible pressure, but the chief culprits are overfishing and pollution. By comparison, a very slow reduction in the alkalinity of the oceans, well within the range of natural variation, is a modest threat, and it certainly does not merit apocalyptic headlines.

1NC – Natural VariabilityOcean acidification isn’t a thing – natural variability is higher and other natural functions cancel them out NIPCC, international panel of peer reviewed nongovernment scientists and scholars, 2014[Non-governmental Internal Panel on Climate Change, March 2014, Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts, “6.3.1.1 Assessing and Projecting Changes in Oceanic pH”, Pg 823-826, JFBased on four theoretical constructs—a geochemical model, an ocean general-circulation model, an IPCC CO2 emissions scenario for the twenty-first century, and a projected logistic function for the burning of Earth’s post-twenty-first century fossil-fuel reserves —Caldeira and Wickett (2003) calculated the atmospheric CO2 concentration could approach 2,000 ppm around the year 2300, leading to a surface seawater pH reduction of 0.7 unit, a change they describe as being much more rapid and considerably greater “than any experienced in the past 300 million years.” This long time interval makes the phenomenon sound truly catastrophic, especially as IPCC claims this “ocean acidification”

phenomenon will impede the process of calcification in corals and other marine life. In judging the plausibility of this scenario, it is important first to know whether the acidification phenomenon is really severe and unprecedented. In a special issue of Oceanography published in December 2009, Feely et al. (2009) review what is known about the current pH status of the world’s oceans and what can likely be expected by the end of the current century. The three researchers write, “estimates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change business-as-usual emission scenarios suggest that atmospheric CO2 levels could approach 800 ppm near the end of the century,” and “corresponding biogeochemical models for the ocean indicate that surface water pH will drop from a preindustrial value of about 8.2 to about 7.8 in IPCC A2 scenario by the end of this century.” They warn, as a result, “the skeletal growth rates of calcium-secreting organisms will be reduced” and conclude, “if anthropogenic CO2 emissions are not dramatically

reduced in the coming decades, there is the potential for direct and profound impacts on our living marine ecosystems.” In the same issue of Oceanography, Tans (2009) presents a much different take on the subject. He begins by noting the anthropogenic component of the air’s CO2 concentration “depends primarily on the total amount emitted, not on the rate of emissions ,” Figure 6.3.1.2. Past and projected trends of oceanic pH based on fossil-fuel carbon utilization estimates from Tans (2009) and IPCC’s A2 scenario. Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts 824 and “unfortunately,

IPCC reports have not helped public understanding of this fact by choosing, somewhat arbitrarily , a rather short time horizon (100 years is most commonly used) for climate forcing by CO2.” “Instead of adopting the common economic point of view, which, through its emphasis on perpetual growth, implicitly assumes infinite Earth resources,” Tans notes the cumulative extraction of fossil-fuel carbon currently stands at about 345 gigatons of carbon (GtC), and there appears to be another 640 or so GtC of proven reserves, yielding a total original reserve of about 1,000 GtC , from which he proceeds with his analysis. The past and projected history of fossil-fuel carbon utilization, together with historical and projected atmospheric CO2 concentrations out to the year 2500, as calculated by Tans, is presented in Figure 6.3.1.1 above.

According to the data presented there, Tans shows the air’s CO2 concentration peaking well before 2100 at only 500 ppm , as compared to the 800 ppm Feely et al. take from IPCC . By the year 2500, the air’s CO2 concentration drops back to about what it is today , according to Tans’ analysis. Based on his more modest projections of

future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, Tans finds the projected pH reduction of ocean waters in the year 2100 to be only one-half of the 0.4 value calculated by Feely et al., with a recovery to a reduction of slightly more than 0.1 pH unit by 2500 , which is less than the range of pH values typical of today’s oceans (8.231 in the Arctic Ocean minus 8.068 in the North Indian Ocean equals 0.163, according to Feely et al.). Graphical data presented by Pelejero et al. (2010) depict interannual pH variations in the North Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda ranging from a high of approximately 8.18 to a low of about 8.03 at various times over the years 1984 to 2007 (Bates, 2007), further demonstrating large pH variations are occurring in some ocean basins

as a result of seasonal seawater variability. Ev en greater natural pH variability is evident on both shorter and longer time scales in still other of Pelejero et al.’s graphs. Over a mere two days in July 2001 on a Molokai (Hawaii) Reef flat, for example, seawater pH ranged from a high of 8.29 to a low of 7.79 (Yates and Halley, 2006). Over a period of about a decade in the mid-twentieth century, the pH at Arlington Reef in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef system ranged

from a high of approximately 8.25 to a low of about 7.71 (Wei et al., 2009). These natural and recurring pH declines (0.50 and

0.54) are greater than the 0.3 to 0.4 decline IPCC expects to occur between now and the end of the century , and much greater than Tans’ estimate of about 0.2. Hofmann et al. (2011) state “natural variability in pH is seldom considered when effects of ocean acidification are considered,” and they suggest this omission is disturbing because “natural variability may occur at rates much higher than the rate at which carbon dioxide is decreasing ocean pH,” which is about 0.0017 pH unit per year, according to Dore et al. (2009) and Byrne et al. (2010). They contend “ambient fluctuation in pH may have a large impact on the development of resilience in marine populations,” noting

“heterogeneity in the environment with regard to pH and pCO2 exposure may result in populations that are acclimatized to variable pH or extremes in pH.” Hofmann et al. recorded continuous highresolution time series of upper-ocean patterns of pH variability with autonomous sensors deployed at 15 locations from 40.7303°N to 77.8000°S latitude and from 0 to 166.6712°E longitude and 0 to 162.1218°W longitude, over a variety of ecosystems ranging from polar to tropical, open ocean to coastal, and kelp forest to coral reef. The 18 researchers report their measurements revealed “a continuum of month-long pH variability with standard deviations from 0.004 to 0.277 and ranges spanning 0.024 to 1.430 pH units.” This variability was “highly site-dependent, with characteristic diel, semi-diurnal, and stochastic patterns of varying amplitudes.” Hofmann et al. write, “these biome-specific pH signatures disclose current levels of exposure to both high and low dissolved CO2, often demonstrating that resident organisms are already experiencing pH regimes that are not predicted until 2100.” These facts suggest the current real-world heterogeneity of the world’s oceans with regard to pH and pCO2 exposure may already have “result[ed] in populations that are acclimatized to variable pH or extremes in pH,” such as those that have been

predicted to be the new norm in 2100. Lower ocean pH levels may therefore not mature in the way projected by IPCC, a conclusion Loaiciga (2006) shares, having written years earlier, “on a global scale and over the time scales considered (hundreds of years), there would not be accentuated changes in either seawater salinity or acidity from the rising concentration of atmospheric CO2.” Marine photosynthesis may also reduce CO2- induced lowering of ocean pH levels lower ocean pH levels, as it tends to increase surface seawater pH, countering the tendency for pH to decline as the air’s CO2 content rises, as demonstrated by Lindholm and Nummelin (1999). This phenomenon has been found to dramatically increase the pH of marine bays, Aquatic Life 825 lagoons, and tidal pools (Gnaiger et al., 1978; Santhanam, 1994; Macedo et al., 2001; Hansen, 2002) and significantly enhance the surface water pH of areas as large as the North Sea (Brussaard et al., 1996). Middelboe and Hansen (2007) studied a waveexposed boulder reef in Aalsgaarde on the northern coast of Zealand, Denmark, plus a sheltered shallowwater area in Kildebakkerne in the Roskilde Fjord, Denmark. As one would expect if photosynthesis tends to increase surface-water pH, the two researchers found “daytime pH was significantly higher in spring, summer and autumn than in winter at both study sites,” often reaching values of 9 or more during peak summer growth periods vs. 8 or less in winter. They also found “diurnal measurements at the most exposed site showed significantly higher pH during the day than during the night,” sometimes reaching values greater than 9 during daylight hours but typically dipping below 8 at night, and “diurnal variations were largest in the shallow water and decreased with increasing water depth.” In addition to their own findings, Middelboe and Hansen cite Pearson et al. (1998), who found pH averaged about 9 during the summer in populations of Fucus vesiculosus in the Baltic Sea; Menendez et al. (2001), who found maximum pH was 9 to 9.5 in dense floating macroalgae in a brackish coastal lagoon in the Ebro River Delta; and Bjork et al. (2004), who found pH values as high as 9.8 to 10.1 in isolated rock pools in Sweden. Noting “pH in the sea is usually considered to be stable at around 8 to 8.2,” the two Danish researchers conclude “pH is higher in natural shallow-water habitats than previously thought.” Liu et al. (2009) note, “the history of ocean pH variation during the current interglacial (Holocene) remains largely unknown,” and it “would provide critical insights on the possible impact of acidification on marine ecosystems.” Working with 18 samples of fossil and modern Porites corals recovered from the South China Sea, the nine researchers employed 14C dating using the liquid scintillation counting method, along with positive thermal ionization mass spectrometry to generate high-precision δ11B (boron) data, from which they reconstructed the paleo-pH record of the past 7,000 years, as depicted in Figure 6.3.1.1.2. As the figure

illustrates, there is nothing unusual, unnatural, or unprecedented about the two most recent pH values. They are not the lowest of the record, nor is the rate of decline that led to them the greatest of the record. This strongly indicates these recent values have little to do with the nearly 40% increase in the air’s CO2 concentration that occurred over the course of the Industrial Revolution. As for the prior portion of the record, Liu et al. note there is also “no correlation between the atmospheric CO2 concentration record from Antarctica ice cores and δ11B-reconstructed paleo-pH over the mid-late Holocene up to the Industrial Revolution.” Further insight comes from the earlier work of Pelejero et al. (2005), who developed a more refined history of seawater pH spanning the period 1708– 1988 (depicted in Figure 6.3.1.1.3), based on δ11B data obtained from a massive Porites coral from Flinders Reef in the western Coral Sea of the southwestern Pacific. These researchers also found “no notable trend toward lower δ11B values.” They discovered “the dominant feature of the coral δ11B record is a clear interdecadal oscillation of pH, with δ11B values ranging between 23 and 25 per mil (7.9 and 8.2 pH units),” which they say “is synchronous with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.” Figure 6.3.1.1.2. Reconstructed pH history of the South China Sea. Created from Table 1 of Liu et al. (2009). Figure 6.3.1.1.3. Reconstructed pH history of Flinders Reef of the Western Coral Sea of the Southwestern Pacific. Adapted from Pelejero et al. (2005). Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts 826 Pelejero et al. also compared their results with coral extension and calcification rates obtained by Lough and Barnes (1997) over the same 1708–1988 time period. As best as can be determined from their graphical representations of these two coral growth parameters, extension rates over the last 50 years of this period were about 12% greater than they were over the first 50 years, and calcification rates were approximately 13% greater over the last 50 years. Wei et al. (2009) derived the pH history of Arlington Reef (off the north-east coast of Australia). Their data show a 10-year pH minimum centered at about 1935 (which

obviously was not CO2-induced) and a shorter, more variable minimum at the end of the record (which also was not CO2-induced). Apart from

these two non-CO2-related exceptions, the majority of the data once again fall within a band that exhibits no long-term trend. Numerous scientific studies have demonstrated atmospheric CO2 enrichment stimulates pH-boosting photosynthesis in marine micro- and macro-algae (see Sections 6.3.2 and 6.5.1). This phenomenon suggests anything else that enhances marine photosynthesis— such as nutrient delivery to the waters of the world’s coastal zones (i.e., eutrophication)—may do so as well, as Borges and Gypens (2010) have found. Employing an idealized biogeochemical model of a river system (Billen et al., 2001) and a complex biogeochemical model describing carbon and nutrient cycles in the marine domain (Gypens et al., 2004), the two researchers investigated “the decadal changes of seawater carbonate chemistry variables related to the increase of atmospheric CO2 and of nutrient delivery in the highly eutrophied Belgian coastal zone over the period 1951–1998.” They

write, “the increase of primary production due to eutrophication could counter the effects of ocean acidification on surface water carbonate chemistry in coastal environments,” and “changes in river nutrient delivery due to management regulation policies can lead to stronger changes in carbonate chemistry than ocean acidification,” as well as

changes “faster than those related solely to ocean acidification.” They add, “the response of carbonate chemistry to changes of nutrient delivery to the coastal zone is stronger than ocean acidification.” Given its failure to account for the

full spectrum of important phenomena that affect ocean acidification, IPCC’s current assessment of potential impacts on aquatic life should be considered far more uncertain and much less extreme than IPCC claims it to be.

1NC – Shipping Lanes Alt CauseAlt cause to acidification – sulphur and nitrogen oxides from shipping create irreversible acidificationBeijer 13 [Cathrine, editor at Sustainability, “Sulphur from shipping causes just as much ocean acidification as increasing carbon emissions”, http://sustainability.formas.se/en/Issues/Issue-4-December-2013/Content/Articles/Sulphur-from-shipping-causes-just-as-much-ocean-acidification-as-increasing-carbon-emissions/ 8/9] TYBG

Heavily trafficked shipping routes give rise to as serious acidification effects as do the increasing carbon emissions. This has been demonstrated by research at the University of Gothenburg and Chalmers University of Technology.

Researchers hope that the new results will contribute to further emissions controls on shipping. Exhaust gases from ships contain high levels of sulphur oxides and nitrogen oxides. When they are emitted into the air, they can be transformed into sulphuric acid and nitric acid. These acids can react with water present in the atmosphere and locally form acidic water droplets which fall into the ocean . Monthly results Researchers have now concluded that during certain seasonal periods, foremost in coastal areas in the northern hemisphere, ship emissions may cause just as much acidification as do annual carbon emissions. Earlier models for judging the acidification effects of shipping were based on an annual

globally averaged acidification. In this new study, a new model has been created which reveals the numbers for each month. This has given quite different results. – We have been able to localise areas with intensive shipping traffic where the surface water is quite thin during the spring and summers and the mixing of surface and deeper waters is minimal. Whatever is deposited from the atmosphere is not mixed down into deeper waters, which makes the effect on surface waters much greater, explains David Turner,

professor of Marine Chemistry at the University of Gothenburg. Effects on living organisms As opposed to carbon dioxide, sulphuric acid and nitric acid are two very strong acids . According to David Turner, shipping emissions may therefore entail quite different consequences for our oceans than carbon dioxide emissions. – When the oceans take up carbon dioxide, the acidification which takes place is reversible . In other words, if the amount of carbon dioxide in the air is decreased, the acidification process can reverse. But strong acids cause an acidification which cannot be reversed . This means that the water is affected in the long

term, since it decreases the water’s buffer capacity. Yet it still remains uncertain which consequences the acidification caused by shipping may have on the living organisms in the oceans. – There have been studies on the acidification effects of carbon dioxide, where one has determined that organisms which need calcium carbonates find it more difficult to

build their skeletons and shells, which is a threat to large coral reefs, for example. In the case of strong acids, the effects will most likely be similar to the effects that carbon dioxide has in the short run. But if a large amount of very strong acids are deposited, the consequences in the long run may be different.

AT: Coral ReefsOcean acidification is decreasing and reefs have proven to be resilientCO2 Science, January 5th 2015 (1/5/15, " Reef Calcifiers Resisting Ocean Acidification", CO2 Science, www.co2science.org/articles/V18/jan/a3.php, accessed 1/5/15)

In a paper published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B, Comeau et al. (2014a) write that in spite of "pessimistic projections forecasting the disappearance of most coral reefs before the end of the current century," a compilation of laboratory studies produced by Chan and Connolly (2013) suggests it is more likely that "coral calcification will decline approximately 10-20% (rather than ceasing) for a doubling of present-day partial pressure of CO2." In addition, they note that "more subtle responses to ocean acidification [OA] have also been shown in recent studies reporting signs of resistance to OA for some reef calcifiers," citing the work of Takahashi and Kurihara (2013), Comeau et al. (2013) and Comeau et al. (2014b). And they add that "field observations at underwater CO2 vents in Papua New Guinea and sites with high seawater pCO2 in Palau have also shown that some reef calcifiers can persist in naturally acidified conditions," referencing the studies of Fabricius et al. (2011) and Shamberger et al. (2014). In their own study of two coral taxa and two calcifying algae - which they conducted in Moorea (French Polynesia), Hawaii (USA) and Okinawa (Japan) - Comeau et al. found that for three of the four calcifiers "there was no effect of pCO2 on net calcification" at any of the three locations, which led them to suggest that this finding "may represent a constitutive and geographically conserved capacity to resist some of the effects of OA." And, therefore, evidence continues to accumulate in support of the view that the vast bulk of the pessimistic projections of the world's climate alarmists relative to future ocean acidification effects on calcifying organisms will likely never come to pass.

Solvency

1NC – Private Solvency SuggestionInstead of pouring more resources into government based acidification programs, a more effective course of action would be too use current funding to create acidification competitions for private companiesBrad Shannon, writer for the News Tribune, 2014 [“Kilmer advocates for competition to reduce ocean acidification”, 5/13/14, http://www.thenewstribune.com/2014/05/13/3192748_kilmer-advocates-for-competition.html?rh=1] TYBG

Facing a Congress that rarely is able to act on contentious topics, U.S. Rep. Derek Kilmer thinks he has found a way get more research done on ocean acidification without forking out new taxpayer dollars. Kilmer’s solution, which the Gig Harbor Democrat intends to introduce next week in the House, is to let federal agencies use existing dollars devoted to research on the topic — which he estimates at nearly $30 million a year — for research competitions. He thinks this can encourage competitors to put other private dollars to work on the ocean acidity proble m, which is tied to carbon dioxide emissions that scientists also link to climate change. By Kilmer’s

estimate, the proposal could generate “four to 10 times more value than the amount of the prize’’ — or up to $50 million for a $5 million prize, based on testimony he’s heard during hearings in the House science committee on other research competitions . “There are clear questions here — will ocean acidification affect the salmon that we are working very hard to recover?” Kilmer said Monday during a press conference at Northern Fish, a food company based in South Tacoma. “Will it affect other species of fish and crabs that our economy is dependent on? … We’ve got a lot to learn about ocean acidification.” Northern Fish President John Swanes and vice president Ross Swanes both said they had seen a drop-off in shellfish supplies along the coast in recent years. “This is a big deal for our industry and for Lilliwaup, a little town I live in, there aren’t a lot of jobs,’’ said Lissa James, retail and marketing manager for the Hama Hama Co., which raises shellfish in Hood Canal. James said the availability of oyster seed is

the challenge and that demand for products is not a problem. Scientists say the Pacific Ocean is absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, shifting the acidity of the seas and making it harder for oyster growers to produce baby oysters, or “seed,” naturally from larvae. Research shows waters off the coast and in Puget Sound are prone to the upwelling of more acidic waters. But lately acidic waters are present far more frequently, harming organisms at the base of the food chain such as plankton and tiny snails called pteropods, as well as oysters higher up on the chain, according to Terrie Klinger and Jan Newton, co-

directors of the Washington Ocean Acidification Center at the University of Washington. “We have more information needs and we simply don’t have the tools we need,” Klinger added.

1NC – Data FailsThe American Political system is already over-saturated with data about environmental damage in the ocean – the affirmative’s strategy of “observation” and “data gathering” will never be able to influence policy makers, rather we should direct our resources toward material change and changing human behaviorStarr 14 - psychologist, journalist, and professor emeritus at the City University of New York, Brooklyn College (Bernard, “Our Oceans Are Dying: Mobilizing an Indifferent Public to Confront This Crisis,” Huffington Post, 6-27-14, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bernard-starr/our-oceans-are-dying_b_5533322.html) //

After an eighteen-month investigation, the Commission , made up of former heads of state, government officials, and prominent business leaders concluded that our oceans are dying from climate change, pollution , and over-fishing. The Commission proposes an eight point program to rescue the oceans over the next five years. Why should we be concerned? José María Figueres, Co-chair of the Commission and former president of Costa Rica, has summed up the dire situation with these words: "The ocean provides 50 percent of our oxygen and fixes 25 percent of global carbon emissions. Our food chain begins in that 70 percent of the planet." He added that "a healthy ocean is key to our well-being, and we need to reverse its degradation." He warned: "Unless we turn the tide on ocean decline within five years, the international community should consider turning the high seas into an off-limits regeneration zone until its condition is restored." A Commission video states the crisis even more starkly: "No ocean,

no us!" In his brief talk at the reception, David Miliband, also co-chair of the Ocean Commission and former UK Foreign Secretary, urged politicians , scientists, journalists, and ordinary citizens to rally behind the salvation of our oceans and the planet -- and to get the message out to others. Will getting the message out turn the tide in the battle to save the planet? I doubt it. We are swimming in information and messages . Earlier the this year leading scientists declared that we are fast approaching the critical point of no return for climate change -- a point with predictable devastating consequences . But who is listening? The public

continues to be frighteningly indifferent . Who among the public is willing to place the salvation of the planet over immediate personal concerns? That question was dramatically called to my attention recently when I presented a list of critical issues to a group of seniors enrolled in a life-long learning program and asked them which one they would place first. The list included: terrorism and national defense, global warming, jobs, vanishing icebergs, protecting Social Security, income inequality, ocean pollution, sustaining Medicare, protecting the Amazon rain forests, reducing fossil fuel emissions, regulating Wall Street and the banks, stopping fracking (shale gas drilling), protecting wildlife (elephants, lions, whales, etc.), eliminating genetically modified foods (GMOs), campaign finance reform, free college education for all, national healthcare (Medicare for all). I was particularly interested in the seniors' answers since popular wisdom says that seniors are more concerned than other age groups with the welfare of children, grandchildren, and future generations. And no issue is more vital for the well-being of future generations than the viability of life on the planet. Psychologist Erik Erikson called this concern of older adults "generativity." But the seniors defied conventional wisdom. Jobs, Social Security, and income inequality topped their listings. Only one person, toward the end of the discussion, cited climate change -- and his response seemed almost gratuitous in recognition that we were about to screen a documentary on the melting of icebergs. Perhaps I should not have been surprised.

Politicians avoid talking about environmental issues for fear of losing favor with their constituents , who are clamoring for jobs, mortgage relief, and financial security. During the 2012 presidential debates between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney

environmental issues took a far back seat; in fact, they were barely mentioned. Both candidates knew instinctively that in the throes of an economic crisis placing the salvation of the planet high on the national agenda would not generate votes. It might even take away votes from people who feared the candidate would be indifferent to their personal struggles. So where does this leave us? If more environmental studies and more alarming news will not mobilize leaders and the public for an all-out commitment to the preservation of our small vulnerable corner of the universe, what will? Perhaps we need to shift our focus from information to changing human behavior. Let's enlist leading behavioral scientists and psychological associations to address how to awaken the public to the urgency of protecting the planet. Let's launch a campaign to make this the number-one priority. And let's adopt these mantras: No

planet, no jobs; no planet, no Social Security; no planet, no mortgages; no planet, no corporate bonus packages. No planet, no us.

1NCNow we’ll address the stock issue of the disadvantage, or the negative consequences of the affirmative team’s plan. The affirmative plan mandates that the United States federal government should spend large and wasteful amounts of money on <the plan>. While this may seem like a good idea, this spending doesn’t tackle the real cause of the problem. Instead, the money could be better directed towards improving other more efficient projects.They said in cross examination that the plan costs 50-100 million dollars Because the plan is already happening in the current system as per our inherency arguments, this risky and repetitive spending is needless and harmful to our economy. Just after exceeding the debt ceiling and enduring the government shut down last year, the last thing the US and its economy needs is more reckless spending

I/L – Spending Destroys EconNew spending destroys the economy – research is conclusiveRomina Boccia, Assistant Director for the Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, writes in 2013 (She holds a master’s degree in Economics at George Mason University, “How the United States’ High Debt Will Weaken the Economy and Hurt Americans”, Heritage Foundation, 2/13/13, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/02/how-the-united-states-high-debt-will-weaken-the-economy-and-hurt-americans)//js

U.S. federal spending in 2013, combined with depressed receipts from a weak economy, is on track to result in a deficit of $850 billion . Publicly held debt in the United States will exceed 76 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013, and chronic deficits are projected to push U.S. debt to 87 percent of the economy in 10 years.[1] Debt is projected to grow even more rapidly after 2023. Recent economic research, especially the work of Carmen Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff, confirms that federal debt at such high levels puts the United States at risk for a number of harmful economic consequences, including slower economic growth, a weakened ability to respond to unexpected challenges, and quite possibly a debt-driven financial crisis. [ 2] The federal government is quickly exhausting its ability

to manage its bills, with debt having already reached the statutory debt ceiling. The resulting debate should focus on the need to reduce federal spending immediately and over the long term by making necessary and prudent reforms to

the nation’s major entitlement programs, and thus reduce the continued buildup of debt and the expected harmful consequences increasingly confirmed by academic research.