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The Nine “I’s” of Program Success
For any program to succeed, there are Nine Integration activities that must be in place and connected.
Glen B. Alleman PrimePM
Rick Price Lockheed Martin
Tom Coonce Institute for Defense Analyses
Government PMO Perspective Prime Contractor Perspective
1
The CPM Mission Statement …
2
Share, promote, and advance the best of planning, control, and performance management for projects of all sizes and complexity.
… Is Our Mission As Well
The basis of this Mission are delivered through the Nine I’s
We’re not here to show you HOW
We’re here to show you WHY
Program Success
Program success is accomplishing the required objectives defined in the SOW on time and on cost
A program is a System Of Systems both technically and programmatically
Programmatic architecture, risk, and execution are just as important as technical performance
4
All the world's’ a system
All the parts are separate
All the parts are connected
Practices Connect The
Parts 5
Start with the end in Mind
6
Our sample program is a “sample return” program – Stardust to visit Comet Wild 2
We need the capability to …
Primary: collect dust particles from the comet
Secondary: Take pictures of the comet …
– During our closest encounter, and
– Get a picture of the nucleus
Secondary: Cometary Interstellar Dust Analyzer (CIDA) and Dust Flux Monitor Instrument (DFMI) – store the science data
Secondary: Analyze engineering and Doppler data
7
What could possibly go wrong? Capturing and safely stowing particles Surviving mission environments (including launch,
comet encounter, and reentry) Returning sample capsule to earth for scientific
analysis Must launch within 26 day launch window
8
Unrealistic Performance Expectations missing Measures of Effectiveness (MoE) and Measures of Performance (MoP)
Unrealistic Cost and Schedule estimates based on inadequate risk adjusted growth models
Inadequate assessment of risk and unmitigated exposure to these risks without proper handling plans
Unanticipated Technical issues without alternative plans and solutions to maintain effectiveness
Increasing the
Probability of Program Success
IMP,
IMS,
an
d, I
nte
grat
ed
R
isk
Man
age
me
nt
Removing the Root Causes of Poor Program Performance
Diagram “borrowed” from Gary Bliss
9
The Nine “I’s” of Program Success
1. Integrated Master Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (IMP) 2. Integrated Master Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (IMS) 3. Integrated Risk Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . (IRM) 4. Integrated Baseline Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (IBR) 5. Integrated Team Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (ITS) 6. Interface Control Document . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (ICD) 7. Integrated Program Management Report . . (IPMR) 8. Integrated Business Rhythm . . . . . . . . . . . . . (IBizR) 9. Integrated Supply Chain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (ISC)
10
Let’s Start With Some Hard, Cold Facts
11
FACT EVM is necessary but not sufficient for success
EVM measures cost and schedule performance
FACT The ANSI-748-B variance analysis guidance
doesn’t speak to technical performance
Measures of Effectiveness (MoE), Measures of Performance (MoP), Key Performance Parameters (KPP), and Technical Performance Measures (TPM) are all Systems Engineering terms, not found in EVM Guidance
12
FACT WBS is Paramount† – it shows:
– what deliverables are needed for program success
– who is needed to perform the work (Integrated Team Structure)
– but not the Risk by itself, we need to add risk
The IMP is the glue between the needed capabilities and the program implementation
The IMP shows what “done” looks like through measures of increasing maturity
13
† Borrowed from Gordon Kranz
FACT All the programmatic parts are connected, just
like the technical parts
The Programmatic Architecture is a System-of-Systems
You have to “breakdown” the problem in the “Right way” – because everything is connected to everything else.
14
FACT Risk management is how adults manage
programs – Every “problem” in the past was either an
unidentified or unmitigated risk
Everything has to be risk adjusted
Uncertainty drives Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance
There are two types of uncertainty – Reducible (Epistemic) – Irreducible (Aleatory)
Not knowing the difference between these is a risk itself
15
PRINCIPLES
Why we should be doing the Right thing
Risk Management
The Structure of the Nine “I’s” SOW SOO
ConOps WBS
Techncial and Operational Requirements from SOW, SOO, ConOps
CWBS & CWBS Dictionary
Integrated Master Plan (IMP)
Integrated Master Schedule (IMS)
Earned Value Management System (EVMS)
Objective Status and Essential Views to support the proactive management processes needed to keep the program GREEN
Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB)
Measures of Effectiveness
(MoE)
Measures of Performance
(MoP)
Measures of Progress
JROC Key Performance Parameters
(KPP)
Program Specific Key Performance Parameters
(KPP)
Technical Performance Measures (TPM)
17
Steps to Building a Risk-Tolerant Plan (PMB and Total Plan)
Capture All Activities defined in the SOW, SOO, and CDRLs 1
2
3
4
5
Build the Integrated Master Plan
Sequence the activities form the IMP into the IMS
Build a Risk Register and quantify all the uncertainties
Set Management Reserve based on reducible uncertainties
Estimate the duration of each activity
Assign resources to the Integrated Master Schedule
7
6
Adjust the PMB all uncertainties – reducible and irreducible 8
9
18
Adjust PMB for Significant Risks
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WBS Program
KPPs TPMs
EVM ETC EAC
Irreducible uncertainty in reference
classes
Schedule Margin in 81861
Cost Margin?
Risk retirement in PMB
MR and SR to cover unretired risk
MoE
MoP
Technical and Programmatic Risks
PE
SA
AC
KPP
IMP
IMS
Connecting the Dots Between IMP, IMS, and Risk
Reducible uncertainty held in Risk Register
Physical Percent Complete WP
IMP
Principles of the Integrated Master Plan
21
Sow SOO
ConOps WBS
Techncial and Operational Requirements
Integrated Master Schedule (IMS)
Techncial Performance Measures
Earned Value Management System
Performance Measurement Baseline
CWBS & CWBS Dictionary
Integrated Master Plan (IMP)
The Integrated Master Plan (IMP) is an event-based plan consisting of a hierarchy of program events, with each event being supported by specific accomplishments, and each accomplishment associated with specific criteria to be satisfied for its completion. The IMP is normally part of the contract and thus contractually binding. The IMP is a narrative explaining the overall management of the program.
Objective Status and Essential Views to support the proactive management processes needed to keep the program GREEN
The Integrated Master Plan Tells Us Where The Program Is Going
The Integrated Master Plan Is The Execution Strategy For The Successful
Completion Of The Project 22
The IMP Demonstrates our understanding of the program’s requirements and the soundness of the approach represented by the plan
The IMP is the single most important document to a
program’s success
23
The IMP / IMS Structure
24
IMS
IMP
Describes how program
capabilities will be
delivered and
how these
capabilities will
be recognized
as ready for
delivery
Supplemental Schedules
Work Packages and Tasks
Criteria
Accomplishment
Events or
Milestones
IMP PRACTICES
Define increasing maturity for each program deliverable
IMP Building is a Full Contact Sport
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Some Guidance
27
INCOSE VEE and the IMP Combine DT&E/O Demonstration`
System to Specified User Needs and Environmental Constraints
Interpret User Needs, Refine System Performance Specifications, and Environmental Constraints
SRR
Develop System Functional Specifications and System Verification Plan
SFR
Evolve Functional Performance Specifications into CI Functional (Design To) Specification and CI Verification Plans
PDR
System DT&E, Verify System Functionality & Constraints Compliance
to Specifications TRR
Integrated DT&E, Verify Performance Compliance to Specifications CI
Verification DT&E
Evolve Functional Performance Specifications into Product (Build To) Documentation and Verification Plans
CDR Fabricate, Assemble, Unit Test to Build To Documentation
Individual CI Verification DT&E
ASFUT GSFUT
System Integration System Demonstration
System Development and Demonstration
SVR PRR
28
Program Event (PE) – A PE assess the readiness or completion as a measure of
progress – First Flight Complete
Significant Accomplishment (SA) – The desired result(s) prior to or at completion of an event
demonstrate the level of the program’s progress – Flight Test Readiness Review Complete
Accomplishment Criteria (AC) – Definitive evidence (measures or indicators) that verify a
specific accomplishment has been completed – SEEK EAGLE Flight Clearance Obtained
29
F-22 Example
Quick View of Step-By-Step IMP
Identify Program Events (PE)
Identify Significant Accomplishments (SA)
Identify Accomplishment Criteria (AC)
Identify Work Packages needed to complete the Accomplishment Criteria
Sequence the Work Packages (WP), Planning Packages (PP), Summary Level Planning Packages (SLPP) in a logical network.
Adjust the sequence of WPs, PPs, & SLPPs to mitigate major risks.
30
1
2
3
4
5
6
PEs assess the maturity of the program’s deliverables
31
Program Events are maturity assessment points in the program
They define what levels of maturity for the products and services are needed before proceeding to the next maturity assessment point
The entry criteria for each Event defines the units of measure for the successful completion of the Event
The example below is typical of the purpose of a Program Event
The Critical Design Review (CDR) is a multi-disciplined product and process assessment to ensure that the system under review can proceed into system fabrication, demonstration, and test, and can meet the stated performance requirements within cost (program budget), schedule (program schedule), risk, and other system constraints.
1
SAs define the entry criteria for each Program Event
32
Preliminary Design Review Complete
2
ACs are the Exit Criteria for Work Packages that produce outcomes
33
Critical Design Review Complete
3
IMS PRINCIPLES
The IMS shows how the work is sequenced to deliver the requirements
35
Sow SOO
ConOps WBS
Techncial and Operational Requirements
Techncial Performance Measures
Earned Value Management System
Performance Measurement Baseline
CWBS & CWBS Dictionary
Integrated Master Plan (IMP)
Integrated Master Schedule (IMS)
The Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) is an integrated, networked schedule containing all the detailed discrete work packages and planning packages (or lower level tasks or activities) necessary to support the events, accomplishments, and criteria of the IMP. The IMP events, accomplishments, and criteria are duplicated in the IMS. Detailed tasks are added to depict the steps required to satisfy criterion. The IMS should be directly traceable to the IMP and should include all the elements associated with development, production or modification, and delivery of the total product and program high level plan.
Objective Status and Essential Views to support the proactive management processes needed to keep the program GREEN
Integrated Master Schedule (IMS)
The IMS describes the horizontal sequence of work activities performed to increase the maturity of the deliverables.
When each deliverable reaches it’s needed maturity it is considered complete.
The IMS functions as the program’s “GPS”
– Can we rely on what it’s telling us to get where we want to go?
36
The IMS is Our GPS for Navigating the Program
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwkaZTLpQ_c
The IMP/IMS provides Horizontal and Vertical traceability of progress to plan Vertical traceability AC SA PE
Horizontal traceability WP WP AC
Program Events Define the maturity of a Capability at a point in time.
Significant Accomplishments Represent requirements that enable Capabilities.
Accomplishment Criteria Exit Criteria for the Work Packages that fulfill Requirements.
Work Package
Work Package
Work Package
Work Package
Work Package
Work Package
Work package
38
IMS PRACTICES
The IMS starts with vertical traceability, and only then links work packages horizontally
Steps to build the IMS
Identify Program Events
Identify Significant Accomplishments
Identify Accomplishment Criteria
Identify Work Packages needed to complete the Accomplishment Criteria
Sequence the Work Packages (WP), Planning Packages (PP), Summary Level Planning Packages (SLPP) in a logical network.
Adjust the sequence of WPs, PPs, & SLPPs to mitigate major risks.
40
1
2
3
4
5
6
Work is done in “packages” that produce measureable outcomes
41
4
Sequence Work Packages (AC’s) into an IMS for each Program Event
42
5
The Previous 6 Steps Result In A Credible IMP/IMS
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The IMP is the “Outer Mold Line”, the Framework, the “Going Forward” Strategy for the Program.
The IMP describes the path to increasing maturity and the Events measuring that maturity.
The IMP tells us “How” the program will flow with the least risk, the maximum value, and the clearest visibility to progress.
The IMS tells us what work is needed to produce the product or service at the Work Package level.
A well integrated IMS provides accurate forecasting.
Our Plan Tells Us “How” We are Going to Proceed
The Schedule Tells Us “What” Work is Needed to Proceed
Horizontal and Vertical Traceability of the IMP/IMS
Integrated Master Schedule Work sequenced to produce outcomes
for each WP.
Vertical traceability AC SA PE
Horizontal traceability WP WP AC
Program Events Define the maturity of a Capability at a point in time.
Significant Accomplishments Represent requirements that enable Capabilities.
Accomplishment Criteria Exit Criteria for the Work Packages that fulfill Requirements.
Work Package
Work Package
Work Package
Work Package
Work Package
Work package
Work Package
Work Package
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RISK PRINCIPLES
Risk management is how adults manage projects – Tim Lister
Why Should We Care About Risk?
Deterministic plans (Performance Measurement Baselines) are ALWAYS WRONG … and usually woefully underestimated! Evidence
– NASA has experienced and average schedule growth of 65% from PDR
– NASA has experience an average cost growth of 35% from PDR
If we want to meet technical, cost, and schedule targets, we must adjust our plans for risk
46
Copyright, Hugh Macleod, www.gapingvoid.com
Integrated Risk Management (IRM)
Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects – Tim Lister
Risk is created through Uncertainty, which has two forms:
– Irreducible Uncertainty – the natural variations in the underlying processes of the work activities and the technical performance.
– Reducible Uncertainty – probabilistic events with consequences that impact the cost, schedule, or techncial performance of the deliverables.
48
Integrated Risk Management (IRM) means Risks are Integrated with the Integrated Master
Plan (IMP) and Integrated Master Schedule (IMS), Vertically and Horizontally
Photo by, Col. Chris Hadfield, Mission Specialist STS-74. Commander ISS Expedition 35 49
IRM
Risk Management is how Adults manage programs
The 1st Principle of Integrated Risk Management (IRM)
51
Start identifying programmatic and technical risks in the WBS
Connecting Risk Retirement with the work activities in the IMS
52
“Buying down” risk is planned in the IMS.
MoE, MoP, and KPP defined in the work package for the critical measure – weight.
If we can’t verify we’ve succeeded, then the risk did not get reduced.
The risk may have gotten worse
Risk: CEV-037 - Loss of Critical Functions During Descent
Planned Risk Level Planned (Solid=Linked, Hollow =Unlinked, Filled=Complete)R
isk S
core
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Conduct Force and Moment Wind
Develop analytical model to de
Conduct focus splinter review
Conduct Block 1 w ind tunnel te
Correlate the analytical model
Conduct w ind tunnel testing of
Conduct w ind tunnel testing of
Flight Application of Spacecra
CEV block 5 w ind tunnel testin
In-Flight development tests of
Damaged TPS flight test
31.M
ar.
05
5.O
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3.A
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06
3.J
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15.S
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1
Weight risk
reduced from
RED to Yellow
Weight confirmed
ready to fly – it’s
GREEN at this point
Beware the Black Swan
53
Hands ON
Let’s put these Principles and Practices to work on Stardust Program
IMP
Hands On
IMS
Hands On
The Integrated Master Schedule
57
STARDUST S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
1996 1997 1998 1999
S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
Program Milestones
ARR
Risk Rvw
Ship to Site
Presidents RvwMis Success Rvw
PDR/C/D ATP
Flt Sys CDR
Start ATLO
Integ Sys Test
Environ Test Compl
Launch
Systems Engineering Requirements/ICDs Specs Released Verification
System Design/Analy LEGEND:
Critical PathsSchedule MarginATLO Need
Final FSCD
SpacecraftStar Cam EDUACS
IMUPeer Rvw
ACS & ACS S/W Integ & Test
Star Cam
To ATLO
Telecom Peer RvwTo ATLO
Flt w/o Test
Complete
C&DHATUPeer RvwEDU To ATLO
FlightComplete
EPS/Avionics
ATU
Solar ArraysTest Batteries
PCA
SASU
Harness
Flt BatteriesPeer Rvw
To ATLOPIU
Thermal Control Peer Rvw
Flt Substrate
Louvers O/DLouver ATPTCS & MLI Installation
To Propulsion
CompleteStructures
SRC Sep Qual
Peer RvwTo ATLOComplete
Mechanisms To ATLO
Peer Rvw
Peer RvwComplete
PropulsionTo ATLOComplete
Software 2.01.1Peer Rvw
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.44.0
CompleteComplete
Complete
Kick Off(1/18) CRR(6/11) EPS PDR
S/A PDRLaunch
IRM
Hands On
ATLO Comparisons
59
61
Integrating the Nine “I’s” with the information used by the program during its planning and execution processes provides visibility into the probability of success in
ways not found by simply reporting data during review meetings
1. Earned Value Management (EVM) provides visibility to the efficiency and effectiveness in the execution of work through the allocated budget for planned work. Measures of physical percent complete are used to forecast future performance of that budget.
2. Integrated Risk Management (IRM) starts with defining the classes of uncertainty involved in the work activities. These included naturally occurring
variances (aleatory uncertainty) and event based uncertainty (epistemic). Both uncertainties create risk to the program. Aleatory uncertainty is
handled through margin. Epistemic uncertainty is handled through risk retirement or management reserve. When these two risk types are
combined with the three handling method an integrated view of programmatic and technical risk is available.
Ale
ato
ry a
nd
Ep
iste
mic
Un
cert
ain
ty d
rive
s ri
sk f
or
cost
, sch
edu
le, a
nd
tec
hn
ical
per
form
ance
Earn
ed V
alu
e M
anag
emen
t m
etri
c re
cord
pas
t p
erfo
rman
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f p
lan
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wo
rk
3. TPMs are attributes that determine how well a system or system element is satisfying or expected to satisfy a technical requirement or goal by predicting the future value of a key technical performance parameter of the higher-level end product under development based on current assessments of products lower in the system structure.
4. KPPs represent the capabilities and characteristics so significant that failure to meet them can be cause for reevaluation, reassessing, or termination of the program. This include JROC KPPs and integrated program KPPs.
Tech
nic
al P
erfo
rman
ce
Mea
sure
s
5. MoPs characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions.
Key
Per
form
ance
Par
amet
ers
6. MoEs are operational measures of success that are closely related to the achievements of the mission or
operational objectives evaluated in the operational environment, under a specific set of conditions.
Mea
sure
s o
f Ef
fect
iven
ess
Mea
sure
s o
f
Per
form
ance
Nine Integrated Processes and their Artifacts needed to Increase the Probability of Program Success (PoPS)
1. Integrated Master Plan (IMP) – defines the measures of the increasing maturity of the deliverables and the processes needed to deliver them P P P P
2. Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) – defines the sequence of work needed to deliver the planned level of maturity for each deliverable P P P P P
3. Integrated Risk Management (IRM) – identified and handles aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the program through margin, risk retirement activities, and management reserve P
4. Integrated Baseline Review (IBR) – confirms the program has a credible Performance Measurement Baseline, integrated risk management process, and risk management P
5. Integrated Team Structure (ITS) – enables horizontal and vertical integration of the work performed by functional elements across the product structure. P
6. Interface Control Document (ICD) – defines the technical, operational, and interfaces between each component or subsystem P
7. Integrated Program Management Report (IPMR) – reports physical process to plan using Earned Value Management and Estimates At Completion P P
8. Integrated Business Rhythm (IBizR) – assures all process functional correctly on a monthly, or weekly basis P P P P P
9. Integrated Supply Chain (ISC) –assures all suppliers of subsystems and components adhere to technical and operational specifications, in a timely manner, within budget. P P P
These Nine “I’s” Integrated With The Six Measures Of Performance Provide Line Of Sight Visibility To Program Performance
62
Identify the Program Events
63
Actors Processes Outcomes
Systems Engineer
Define the process flow for product production from contract award to end of contract
Confirm Program Events represent the logical process flow for program maturity
Program Manager Confirm customer is willing to accept the process flows developed by the IMP
Engage with contracts and customer for PE definition
Project Engineer Identify interdependencies between program event work streams
Identify Value Stream components at the PE level before flowing them down to the SA level
IMP/IMS Architect Capture Program Event contents for each ITS or work stream
Establish foundation for a structure to support the description of the increasing mature as well as the flow to needed work.
Copyright © 2012, Glen B. Alleman, Niwot Ridge, LLC
1
Identify the Significant Accomplishments (SA) for Each PE
64
Actors Processes Outcomes
System Engineer Identify Integrated Team Structure (ITS) responsible for the SA’s
Define the boundaries of these programmatic interfaces
Define technical and process risk categories and their bounds
Technical Lead Confirm the sequence of SA’s has the proper dependency relationships
Define the product development flow process improves maturity
Define technical risk drivers
Project Engineer Confirm logic of SA’s for project sequence integrity
Define the program flows improves maturity
Control Account Manager
Validate SA outcomes in support of PE entry conditions
Confirm budget and resources adequate for defined work effort
IMP/IMS Architect
Assure the assessment points provide a logical flow of maturity at the proper intervals for the program
Maintain the integrity of the IMP, WBS, and IMS
2
Identify Accomplishment Criteria for each Significant Accomplishment
65
Actors Processes Outcomes
CAM
Define and sequence the contents of each Work Package and select the EV criteria for each Task needed to roll up the BCWP measurement
Establish ownership for the content of each Work Package and the Exit Criteria – the Accomplishment Criteria (AC)
Project Engineer
Identify the logical process flow of the Work Package to assure the least effort, maximum value and lowest risk path to the Program Event
Establish ownership for the process flow of the product or service
Technical Lead Assure all technical processes are covered in each Work Package
Establish ownership for the technical outcome of each Work Package
IMP/IMS Architect
Confirm the process flow of the ACs can follow the DID 81650 structuring and Risk Assessment processes
Guide the development of outcomes for each Work Package to assure increasing maturity of the program
3
Identify the Work for Each AC in Work Packages
66
Actors Processes Outcomes
Control Account Manager
Identify or confirm the work activities in the Work Package represent the allocated work
Define bounded work effort defined “inside” each Work Package
Technical Lead Confirm this work covers the SOW and CDRLs
Define all work effort for 100% completion of deliverable visible in a single location – the Work Package
Confirm risk drivers and duration variances
IMP/IMS Architect Assist in the sequencing the work efforts in a logical manner
Develop foundation of the maturity flow starting to emerge from the contents of the Work Packages
Earned Value Analyst
Assign initial BCWS from BOE to Work Package
Confirmation of work effort against BOEs
Define EVT for measures progress to plan
4
Sequence Work Packages for each Significant Accomplishment (SA)
67
Actors Processes Outcomes
Control Account Manager
Define the order of the Work Packages needed to meet the Significant Accomplishments for each Program Event
Define the process flow of work and the resulting accomplishments.
Assure value is being produced at each SA and the AC’s that drive them
IMP/IMS Architect
Assure that the sequence of Work Packages adheres to the guidance provided by DCMA and the EVMS System description
Begin the structuring of the IMS for compliance and loading into the cost system
Program Controls Staff
Baseline the sequence of Work Packages using Earned Value Techniques (EVT) with measures of Physical Percent Complete
Develop insight to progress to plan with measures of physical progress for each Work Packages (EVT)
5
Assemble Final IMP/IMS
68
Actors Processes Outcomes
IMP/IMS Architect
Starting with the AC’s under each SA’s connect Work Packages in the proper order for each Program Event
Establish the Performance Measurement Baseline framework.
Identify MoE and MoP points in the IMP
Program Manager Confirm the work efforts represent the committed activities for the contract
Review and approval of the IMS – ready for baseline.
Review and approve risk drivers and duration variance models
Project Engineer Assess the product development flow for optimizations
Review and approval of the IMS – ready for baseline.
Identify risk drivers and their mitigations
Systems Engineer Confirm the work process flows result in the proper products being built in the right order
Confirm risk drivers and duration variances.
Review and approval of the IMS – ready for baseline
6
Basic Themes for this Morning
Managing with “eye wide open” There are more problems than solution
– The 9 I’s provide a comprehensive, structured plan of attack
Learning this requires hands on – Leave them with hands on material
Building the IMP and IMS is straight forward – but don’t short change the effort – Lack of risk assessment that is the root cause of
disappointment – This means quantified risks in the Risk Register (use the IDA
report picture) – Start building some risk that impact the IMS (cost and
schedule)
69
Exit Criteria for this Morning
Learning Objectives
– Understand the everything is connected as a “system.”
– We have to decompose the work starting with the WBS, to the IMP, to the IMS, …
– How do build “credible” elements of the system
70
Timing
1st session – Principles
– Practices
– Show the hands on for 1st ties both principles and practices in the coming session • Handouts
• Teams built
• Homework assigned
2nd session – Do the homework assigned to the teams
71
Take Homes for the Participants
We need Schedule Reserve just like Management Reserve
The current PMB is as good as it gets – Faster or slower costs money
Everything is a system – No disconnected data
You can (can’t?) do this without an IMP – This tells you want “done” looks like
IMS is the reflection of the entire program – If the initial steps are not done right, it’s down hill from here
– The IMS is the GPS for the program (All State Ad)
72
The Importance of the IMP
The program uses the IMP/IMS to provide:
– Up Front Planning and commitment from all participants
– A balanced design discipline with risk mitigation activities
– Integrated requirements including production and support
– Management with an incremental verification for informed program decisions
73
Analogies
Baseball team
F-111 Illusion of Choice
Compatibility – not
The IMS is the reflection of everything else – once we get the WBS, the IMP, and the measures in place, the IMS is the GPS – can you trust your
Is everything risk adjusted – we don’t spend enough time identifying risk – especially the programmatic risks
74
processes
Teams with rotation of the leaders
3 threads
– Choose 3 products
– Brief for each of the steps
– Swap leaders
Connect the 6 “I’s” through risk
75
Steps to Building a Risk-Tolerant Plan (PMB and Total Plan)
Capture All Activities 1
2
3
4
5
Sequence These Activities
Estimate Activity Durations and Associated Resources (Initial PMB)
Build a Risk Register and Adjust PMB for Significant Risks and Uncertainties
Set Management and Schedule Reserve
Verify Schedule Is Traceable Horizontally And Vertically
Confirm Valid Critical Path – schedule matches program
7
6
Assure that ECD and Cost both have at least 50% probability of success
8
Assure that ECD and Total Cost both have at least 70% probability of success 9 76
To Implement This Integrated Proposal
1. Mandate IMP
2. Create more specific examples on how TPMs can be integrated into the IMP/IMS
3. Change IPMR DID and/or Implementation Guide to
a) Require PMBs be based (at least initially) on a resource-loaded schedule
b) Require initial PMBs to be adjusted for uncertainty and to communicate probabilities of meeting cost and schedule targets (in proposals and semi-annually)
c) Require MR and SR be based on a Monte Carlo simulation and to communicate probabilities of meeting cost and schedule targets (in proposals and semi-annually)
d) Require the contractor to electronically submit a risk register (initially and semi-annually)
e) Add probability statements to EACs and ECDs within monthly reports
77
How Success Program Principles Should Be Applied on DoD Programs
Principles Practices Processes
Where are we going? Integrated Master Plan WBS, OBS, CAP, RMP
How do we get there? Integrated Master Schedule Sequence and budget the work
Do we have enough resources?
Resource loaded IMS PMB
What impediments will we encounter?
Risk adjusted IMS Risk register content assigned to the IMS
How do we measure progress
Earned Value Management Technical Performance
Measures Measures of Effectiveness Measures of Performance Technical Performance
Parameters
MoE, MoP, KPP, TPMs embedded in the IMS
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The State of DoD Program Management Data Flow Today
Contract Requirements
Accounting
and EVM
System
Systems
Engineering
System
Government Program Management Office
Contract Ceiling Systems Engineering
Requirements and KPPs
Scheduling
System
Manual
Sanity Checks
to Ensure
BCWS
consistent
with IMS
Ad-Hoc Manual
Sanity Checks
IMS Schedule
Status and
Performance
Data, e.g., BEI
and SRA
Results
Technical Progress on
Key Performance Parameters
EVM
Performance,
Variance and
Forecast Data
Risk
Management
System
Cost, Schedule and Technical Risks
Risk 5 x 5 Matrix
Completion Date
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Questions Which the IPMR Should Answer for the PM to “Keep it Green”
1. At a summary level, what is the time-based networked plan of activities to provide required deliverables and end items?
2. What are the technical performance measures by WBS?
3. What are the interim technical performance criteria that permit assessments that technical scope of the program is being completed as planned?
4. What is the Work Breakdown Structure and does it cover all the required work?
5. What is the monthly manpower spend plan to deliver according to the Statement of Work?
6. What is the monthly Program Management Baseline that coincides with IMS after it has been adjusted for cost and schedule uncertainties?
7. What is the contractor’s projected probability of meeting the initial cost and schedule targets after taking into account known uncertainties?
8. What is the contractor’s initial probability of meeting initial Total Cost At Completion and its initial Management and Schedule Reserve taking into account known discrete risks that have not been mitigated?
9. What is the contractor’s initial probability of meeting the completion date taking into account known discrete risks that have not been mitigated?
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Questions Which the IPMR Should Answer (Continued)
10. On a monthly basis, how has the contractor performed against his plan, specifically:
How did the contractor perform against his IMP/IMS?
– Planned vs Actual Programmatic Deliverables (Program Events and Significant Accomplishments and Accomplishment Criteria)
– Planned ranges vs actual TPM
– Monthly BEI and CEI over time
– Cumulative SPIt
How has the contractor performed against his original manpower spending plan (hours or FTE planned vs. monthly actuals)?
How has the contractor performed against his current financial plan, i.e., monthly and cumulative, BCWS, BCWP, ACWP, CPI, and SPI
– Summary Level
– At any indenture of the WBS
– By Organization Breakdown Structure
Where has the contractor experienced problems?
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Questions Which the IPMR Should Answer (Concluded)
11. On a semi-annual basis:
What is the projected cost and schedule outcomes to deliver required final end items, assuming future performance is the same as the past
What is the probability of meeting both cost and schedule targets to deliver the final end items given items on the risk register?
– Best Case cost at completion and completion date assuming low probabilities that risks within the risk register occur and/or successful risk mitigation strategies;
– Worst Case cost at completion and completion date assuming high probabilities that risks within the risk register occur and/or un-successful risk mitigation strategies;
– Most Likely cost at completion and completion date assuming “realistic” probabilities that the risks within the risk register will occur and a moderate number of risk mitigation strategies
What items on the risk list have the highest probability and associated impact that could jeopardize the program from meeting technical, cost and schedule objectives?
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STARDUST A Lesson in Managing Risk To achieve Mission Success
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Douglas Isbell Headquarters, Washington, DC November 22, 1995 (Phone: 202/358-
1753) RELEASE: 95-209
COMET SAMPLE RETURN MISSION PICKED AS NEXT DISCOVERY FLIGHT
A spacecraft designed to gather samples of dust spewed from a comet and return the
dust to Earth for detailed analysis has been selected to become the fourth flight mission
in NASA's Discovery program.
Science
•Collect Dust Particles
•Images
•Closest Encounter
•Transmit Real Time One Image as Near as Possible to
Nucleus
•Image Size is 150x150 pixels
•72 Images Centered At Time Of Closest Approach
•CIDA and DFMI - Store Science Data
•Dynamics Science - Analyze Engineering and Doppler Data
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Common Risk Sources
Misunderstood or Poorly-defined Requirements
Requirements Changes (Creeping)
Non-Stable WBS (Chasing the Req. Changes)
Polishing the Cannonball (“Better is the enemy of good-
enough”)
Straining Existing Capability (“Watch your Margins”)
Unrealistic/Optimistic Expectations (“Murphy Lives”)
Personnel Shortfalls (“Many hands make light work”)
Poor Metrics (“Ignorance is Bliss”)
Not Watching Cost-to-Complete
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Mission Risks
Must launch within 26 day launch window
Risk of Spacecraft/SRC single point failures
2.72 AU on solar power
Risk to capturing and safely stowing particles
Surviving mission environments (including launch, comet encounter, and reentry)
Returning sample capsule safely to earth for scientific analysis (high-speed reentry, SRC ballistic instability, parachute operations, recovery ops)
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Risk Mitigation Strategies
Margins (technical, cost, & schedule)
Use of heritage components & design redundancies
Mission design flexibility (primary science sacred…secondary science tradeable)
Design for survivability
Test early, test often, “test-like-you-fly”, pay for test units
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Original “Toaster Drawer” Design
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Workshop Exercise
1) Choose a risk from the “Mission Risk List”
2) Choose affected WBS elements
3) Select event as a “prior to” for risk mitigation
4) Write a SOW paragraph (subcon) and simple ICD
5) Develop risk retirement plan
6) Develop appropriate IMP/IMS entries
7) Integrate KPPs, MOEs, MOPs into IMP/IMS criteria
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“Clam Shell” Design
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Test Schedule (insert)
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Survivability Design (Kevlar) “Whipple Shields”
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Survivability Hyper-velocity Test
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