5
FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE 2019 RESEARCH
FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE2019
RESEARCH
FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE 2019
3KNIGHT FRANK RESEARCH2 RESEARCH KNIGHT FRANK
Averagesale price
Prime monthlyasking rent,2 bed flat
Averagesale price
Upper quartile monthly asking rent, 2 bed flat
WalthamstowCentral
£440,771
£1,500
BlackhorseRoad
£418,832
£1,469
TOTTENHAM HALE
£405,162
£1,650
SevenSisters
£462,999
£1,495
FinsburyPark
£546,539
£1,907
Highbury &Islington
£718,902
£2,492
King’s CrossSt Pancras
£905,927
£2,817
WalthamstowCentral
BlackhorseRoad
TottenhamHale
SevenSisters
FinsburyPark
Highbury &Islington
King’s CrossSt Pancras
Euston WarrenStreet
OxfordCircus
GreenPark
Victoria Pimlico Vauxhall Stockwell Brixton
£440,771 £418,832 £418,832 £462,999 £546,539 £718,902 £905,927 £636,448 £870,378 £1,397,724 £1,419,071 £1,628,579 £961,448 £1,047,973 £551,179 £512,588
£1,500 £1,469 £1,650 £1,495 £1,907 £2,492 £2,817 £2,817 £3,900 £7,800 £10,833 £4,767 £3,467 £3,358 £1,887 £1,907
BlackhorseRoad
TottenhamHale
SevenSisters
FinsburyPark
Highbury &Islington
King’s CrossSt Pancras
Euston WarrenStreet
OxfordCircus
GreenPark
Victoria Pimlico Vauxhall Stockwell
Zone 3 Zone 2 Zone 1 Zone 2
Euston
£636,448
£2,817
OxfordCircus
£1,397,724
£7,800
GreenPark
£1,419,071
£10,833
Pimlico
£961,448
£3,467
Stockwell
£551,179
£1,887
Brixton
£512,588
£1,907
WarrenStreet
£870,378
£3,900
Vauxhall
£1,047,973
£3,358
£1,628,579
£4,767
Victoria
The strategy, also encouraged by the previous administration, has underpinned a wave of large-scale regeneration projects both established and nearing fruition in locations including King’s Cross, Victoria and Battersea.
Tottenham Hale, already a key transport hub, is one of the first locations in the next phase of this strategy. Plans for redevelopment have been accelerated by Tottenham Hale’s selection as a key interchange on the proposed north to south Crossrail 2 route.
As of the first quarter of 2019, almost 40 large residential developments of at least 50 private units have approval within 3 kilometres of Tottenham Hale station compromising more than 10,000 new homes, to be delivered over the next decade. Significant commercial regeneration is also
underway, and a £1 billion redevelopment of
Tottenham Hotspur’s football stadium opened
in Spring 2019.
The new housing and amenity will cater
to the growing population of the borough
of Haringey, which is set to expand 7%
in the coming ten years, according to
official forecasts.
This report is intended to assist decision
making by prospective house purchasers
and developers looking to invest in land. It
examines local market dynamics, including
affordability compared with nearby and
similarly well-connected locations, the depth
of the rental market, Tottenham Hale’s position
amid London’s changing infrastructure
landscape and its expanding housing supply.
A central theme of London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s strategy to ease the capital’s housing shortage is to “intensify” the use of land close to existing or planned tube and rail connections by building thousands of new homes.
FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE
PRICES & AFFORDABILITY: Source: Land Registry
FIGURE 3 Average house prices Resales market
Source: Rightmove
PMS 5425 PMS 2905
5.7Average weeks onmarket, 2 bed flat for rent in London
3.6Average weeks onmarket, 2 bed flat forrent in Tottenham Hale
5.7Average weeks onmarket, 2 bed flat for rent in London
3.6Average weeks onmarket, 2 bed flat forrent in Tottenham Hale
Average weeks onmarket, 2 bed flat for rent in London
Average weeks onmarket, 2 bed flat forrent in Tottenham Hale
5.7 3.6
FIGURE 4 Average time spent on the market, rental properties
FIGURE 2 House prices and rents on the Victoria Line Year to December 2018
+19% Change in average
house prices, Tottenham Hale,
2016-2018
House prices in Tottenham Hale have climbed 19% since 2016, outperforming the wider London market, according to analysis of Land Registry data. Despite this growth, the area performs well in terms of affordability compared to locations both in the immediate
vicinity (fig 3) and compared with other stations along the Victoria Line.
The average price of a home in Tottenham Hale is £405,162, the least expensive of all stations along the line that runs from Walthamstow Central, through Oxford Circus,
to Brixton in the south (fig 2). The area also scores favourably when compared with other locations a comparable distance from central London. A breakdown of property transactions within 750 meters of the 147 zone 3 stations during Q3 2018 indicates 80%
of stations have higher average sale prices than Tottenham Hale.
Prime monthly asking rents for a two bedroom flat in Tottenham Hale average £1,650, according to a study of the top 25% of listings by value. Analysis of the rental market shows the average
two bedroom apartment spends just 3.6 weeks on the market before being let, compared to 5.8 weeks in Greater London. The time on the market drops to three weeks within 750 meters of Tottenham Hale station, highlighting the importance of access to transport links to tenants.
RENTS15.9%+
HOUSE PRICES9.2%+
Note: Price forecasts are for existing homes. Property values in the new-build market may perform differently.
FIGURE 1 Forecasts, Greater London 2019-2023
Source: Knight Frank Research
4
FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE 2019
RESEARCH KNIGHT FRANK 5KNIGHT FRANK RESEARCH
BONDSTREET
20 MINS
STANSTED
14 MINS
LIVERPOOLSTREET
26 MINS
CANARYWHARF
37 MINS
CANARY WHARFLIVERPOOL STREETBOND STREET STANDSTED AIRPORT
37MINS
26MINS
20MINS
14MINS
TOTTENHAM HALEJOURNEY TIMES
Tube changes Rail changes
CHANGES
Tube Rail
CANARY WHARFLIVERPOOL STREETBOND STREET STANDSTED AIRPORT
37MINS
26MINS
20MINS
14MINS
TOTTENHAM HALEJOURNEY TIMES
37MINS
26MINS
20MINS
14MINS
CANARY WHARF
37MINS
TOTTENHAM HALEJOURNEY TIMES
TOTTENHAM HALEJOURNEY TIMES
OXFORD CIRCUS
15MINS
KINGS CROSS
10MINS
LIVERPOOL STREET
14MINS
STANSTED HEATHROW
37MINS
50MINS
HOUSING SUPPLY
CONNECTIVITY
Much of Tottenham Hale already carries Transport for London’s highest rating for transport accessibility (fig 5). The station is connected to central London via the Victoria Line and Stansted Express trains run to the airport every 15 minutes. Stansted airport is just 37 minutes away via train, and both Liverpool Street and Oxford Circus can be reached in about fifteen minutes.
The area’s connectivity is to be augmented further if the proposed north to south Crossrail 2 route is approved. The Mayor of London has submitted a strategic business case to government for the project, which is anticipated to be operational by 2033. Developers in April began paying the new Community Infrastructure Levy 2 in order to assist in funding the project.
Crossrail 1, the east to west connection now known as the Elizabeth Line, is scheduled to open in 2020. Property values within a ten minute walk of stations along the line have outperformed their local markets by 4% since the project was given Royal Assent in 2008.
Tottenham Hale sits in the Lee Valley Opportunity Area which itself occupies a strategic position in the London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough growth corridor, according to the draft London Plan. Tens of thousands of homes will be built in the Lee Valley over the coming decade and beyond as upgrades to infrastructure underpin regeneration.
Annual housing supply in Haringey has risen steadily from a low of 133 in 2014-15 to 1,200 in 2017-18. The borough needs a minimum of 1,148 additional homes every year to meet basic housing requirements, according to official estimates of housing need.
The area around Tottenham Hale station is to become a focal point for new residential development. Almost 40 large projects have been approved within 3 kilometres of Tottenham Hale station, compromising more than 10,000 private units, to be delivered over the next decade.
FIGURE 5 Public transport accessibility map*
Source: TFL. * Each area is graded between 0 and 6b, where a score of 0 is very poor access to public transport, and 6b is excellent access to public transport.
4% Total average outperformance of
property prices within a ten minute walk of Elizabeth Line (Crossrail 1) stations
since the project was approved in 2008.
FIGURE 8 Housing Supply, Haringey
FIGURE 7 London transport upgrades planned and in progress
Source: MHCLG
Net
add
ition
al d
wellin
gs
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2017-182016-172015-162014-152013-142012-13
Minimum housing requirement2016-2026 1,148
Bromley
Barnet
Hillingdon
Bexley
Ealing
Brent
Harrow
Hounslow
Redbridge
Merton
Greenwich
Newham
Lewisham
Haringey
LambethSouthwarkWandsworth
Camden
Waltham Forest
Richmond Upon Thames
HackneyIslingtonBarking & Dagenham
Kin
gsto
n U
pon
Tham
es
Tower Hamlets
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o
Hayes
Bromley
Catford
Lewisham
New Cross Gate
Elephant & Castle
N ineElms
Battersea
EustonSt. PancrasOld Oak
Common
ActonM ainlineWest
Ealing
Tottenham Hale
NewSouthgate
AlexandraPalace
TurnpikeLane
SevenSisters
DalstonJunction
Angel
Victor ia
King's RoadChelsea
ClaphamJunction
TootingBroadway
W imbledon
MotspurPark
Teddington
TottenhamCour t Road
Paddington
HamptonCourt
Kingston
AbbeyWood
WestDrayton
HeathrowTerminal 4
Surbiton
Angel Road
Langley
ChadwellHeath
Kennington
HeathrowTerminal 5
HeathrowTerminals 2 & 3
WorcesterPark
Shepperton
Sunbury
Stratford
Orpington
ElmersEnd
FinsburyPark
TulseHill
LondonBridge
Charlton
Hendon
Cricklewood
M ill HillBroadway
London CityAirport
GatwickAirport
StanstedAirport
Farringdon
HS2 Proposed (2026 – subject to approval)
Crossrail 1 (late 2019)
Crossrail 2 (2033)
Crossrail 2 Proposals
Northern Line Extension (2020)
Bakerloo Line Existing
Bakerloo Line Proposed (2030 – subject to approval)Thameslink (£7bn upgrades complete 2019)
TOTTENHAM HALE
FIGURE 6 Travel times
Source: TFL
Delivery of housing in Haringey has picked up from a low of just 133 additional dwellings in 2014-15.
BRUCE GROVE
SEVEN SISTERS
SOUTH TOTTENHAM
TOTTENHAM HALE
BLACKHORSEROAD
7
FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE 2019
KNIGHT FRANK RESEARCH6 RESEARCH KNIGHT FRANK
DEMAND DRIVERSDemand for housing in Tottenham Hale is likely to be underpinned by more than just its relative affordability and high levels of connectivity. Easy access to high-quality education will also be a factor. Haringey has 12 primary schools and six secondary schools rated outstanding by Ofsted, the schools watchdog.
London’s world-class universities, including University College London, London School of Economics and King’s College are all between 20 and 35 minutes away by tube.
In addition, the population of Haringey is set to grow by 7% over the coming decade, in line with population projections for Greater London. As a result of the factors outlined in this report, many young people are migrating to the borough, according to official figures. Some 8,771 people aged 20-29 moved to the borough during 2017, making them the largest cohort. More than 6,000 people aged 30-39 moved to the borough during the same year.
Source: ONS
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 1,0000
0 - 9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100+
Age
FIGURE 11 Who moved to Haringey? 2017
Source: TFL, Times Higher Education
FIGURE 12 Travel times from Tottenham Hale to universities with 2019 UK ranking
FIGURE 10 Office for Standards in Education ratings in Haringey
FIGURE 9 Development pipeline Schemes of 50+ private units within 3km of Tottenham Hale Station
WALTHAMSTOWRESERVOIRS
TOTTENHAM HALE
TOTTENHAM HALE
SOUTHTOTTENHAM
SEVEN SISTERS
STAMFORD HILL
HARINGEYGREEN LANES
MANOR HOUSE
WHITEHART LANE
SEVEN SISTERS
BLACKHORSEROAD
WALTHAMSTOWCENTRAL
WALTHAMSTOWQUEENS ROAD
ST JAMESSTREET
NORTHUMBERLANDPARK
TOTTENHAM
HIGHAM HILL
STAMFORD HILL
CRAVENWALK
WESTGREEN
HARINGEYSOUTH
TOTTENHAM
TOTTENHAMHOTSPURSTADIUM
Source: Ofsted
7%TEN YEAR POPULATION GROWTH FORECAST,
HARINGEY
3RD
UNIVERSITY COLLEGELONDON
20MINS 48TH
SOASUNIVERSITY
22MINS =43RD
CASS BUSINESSSCHOOL
21MINS
5TH
LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS ANDPOLITICAL SCIENCE
29MINS =43RD
CITYUNIVERSITY
29MINS 7TH
KING’SCOLLEGE
35MINS
Source: Molior
NUMBER OF PRIVATE UNITS INCLUDES BUILD TO RENT
50 – 100 101 – 200 201 – 400 Over 400
12
6 5
41PRI
MAR
YSE
COND
ARY
OUTSTANDINGGOOD
Important Notice
© Knight Frank LLP 2019 – This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which it appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names.
Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide including developers, investors, funding organisations, corporate institutions and the public sector. All our clients recognise the need for expert independent advice customised to their specific needs.
Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com/ResearchIf you’re thinking of buying or selling, or would just like some property advice, please do get in touch.
Get in touch
Edward Robinson +44 207 718 5211 [email protected]
TH
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EA
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RE
PO
RT
2019
The global perspective on prime property and investment
The Wealth Report 2019
Eastern Opportunities2019
EASTERN OPPORTUNITIES 2019
Knight Frank/ UCAS Student Housing Survey - 2018/19
STUDENT ACCOMMODATION
SURVEY 2018/19
STUDENT ACCOMMODATION
SURVEY 2018/19
Focus on: The Lower Lea Valley - 2018/19
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
FORECASTSCONNECTIVITY DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
FOCUS ON: PARSONS GREEN 2016
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
FOCUS ON: THE LOWER LEA VALLEY2018/19
RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONSRESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT LAND INDEX
Average greenfield development land prices declined 0.6% in Q4 2018, down from 2.6% growth in Q3, paring annual growth to 0.6%. Labour costs continue to edge up and the relatively weak pound has made imported building materials more costly for housebuilders.
Anecdotally, site visitor numbers remain robust, though customers are taking longer to commit to purchases, particularly in the south of England. In the resale market during the first nine months of this year, when compared with 2016, the average time taken from listing a home to sale agreed in the East of England, the South East and London climbed more than 30%, according to Rightmove data. By contrast, the time taken from listing to sale agreed over the same period declined by 5.6% in the East Midlands, 11.4% in the West Midlands and 9.9% in the North West.
These risks, alongside economic uncertainty over Britain’s impending departure from the European Union, have prompted developers to increase their margins, which is suppressing growth in greenfield land values.
Urban brownfield land values declined by 0.5% during 2018, also for the reasons
outlined above. That’s the first annual decline since Knight Frank began tracking Urban Brownfield land values in Q4 2015.
Values edged up 1.0% during the quarter, however, following a 2.3% decline in Q3, led by gains in Birmingham City Centre sites.
Birmingham remains undersupplied when it comes to housing, according to official data, though heightened activity in the land market during the past three years has meant a high quality pipeline is emerging. Developers are likely to be increasingly selective when purchasing land during the coming quarters.
In Prime central London, land values declined 2.8% in Q4, taking the annual decline to 5.6%. Values have dropped almost 20% since the peak of the market in Q3 2015, and with the weak sterling, some notable buyers have decided Prime central London land now represents good value.
Sites of all types are transacting, though volumes remain low. The central London land market is also susceptible to negative sentiment relating to Brexit and land owners are in many cases choosing to wait for more clarity before choosing to sell.
RISING COSTS AND UNCERTAINTY CURB LAND VALUE GROWTH Increasing build costs, patchy house price growth and increased economic uncertainty are, to different degrees, weighing on land values in urban brownfield, greenfield and Prime central London locations.
Key Facts Q4 2018 Average greenfield development land prices declined 0.6% in Q4, taking the annual growth to 0.6%
Urban brownfield development land prices returned to growth, climbing 1.0% during the quarter. The annual change was -0.5%
Prime central London development land values declined 2.8%, taking the annual decline to 5.6%
-12.5%
-10.0%
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q42016 2017 2018
Prime Central London English Greenfield
Urban Brownfield
Source: Knight Frank Research
FIGURE 2
Annual change in average land values
Source: Knight Frank Research
FIGURE 1
Residential development land prices Rebased 100 = Sep 2011 (Urban Brownfield = Dec 2014)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
20182017201620152014201320122011
Ind
ex
Prime Central London English Greenfield
Urban Brownfield
PATRICK GOWER Associate, UK Residential Research
“ Labour costs continue to edge up and the relatively weak pound has made imported building materials more costly for housebuilders.”
@patrickgower
UK Res Dev Land Index – Q4 2018
The London Review – Spring 2019
PENT-UP DEMAND BUILDS ASKING PRICES ADJUSTOUTPERFORMANCE VERSUS
OTHER ASSET CLASSES
LONDON RESIDENTIAL REVIEWSPRING 2019
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
London Residential Development H1 2019
LONDON RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT H1 2019
RESEARCH
The UK Tenant Survey – 2019
MULTIHOUSING 2019
PRS RESEARCH
Sector update | Tenant Survey 2019: Results | Investor Survey
“ PLANS FOR REDEVELOPMENT HAVE BEEN ACCELERATED BY TOTTENHAM HALE’S SELECTION AS A KEY INTERCHANGE ON THE PROPOSED NORTH TO SOUTH CROSSRAIL 2 ROUTE.”
Patrick Gower, Residential [email protected]
If you would like further insight into residential markets please get in touch.
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