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8/7/2019 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia - November 2010
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Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, SpainPhone: +34 932 651 040
Fax: +34 932 650 804
FocusEconomics 2010ISSN 2013-4940
E c o n o m i c F or e c a s t s f r o m t h e Wo r l d s Le a d i n g E c o n o m i s t s
CONSENSUS FORECAST
FOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICSFOCUSECONOMICS
AsiaAsiaAsiaAsiaAsiaContentsContentsContentsContentsContents
Summary .................................... 3
Calendar .................................. 1 4
China ........................................ 1 5
Hong Kong ............................... 2 6
India.......................................... 3 5
Indonesia ................................. 4 4
Korea ........................................ 5 3
Malaysia .................................. 6 3
Philippines............................... 7 2
Singapore ................................ 8 1
Taiwan ..................................... 9 0
Thailand ................................... 9 9
Vietnam ................................. 109
Notes .......................................112
Order Form .............................113
Arne PohlmanChief Economist
ngel TalaveraSenior Economist
Keith CatlinSenior Economist
Armando CiccarelliSenior Economist
Gerardo MornSenior Economist
Ricardo AcevesEconomist
Marcos Felipe CasarinEconomist
Joan Enric DomeneEconomist
November 2010
Publication date: 26 October 2010
Information available:up to and including 25 Oct. 2010
Forecasts collected: 19 - 22 October 2010
Next edition: 23 November 2010
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Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 2
Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual average variation in %
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011World 4.0 1.8 -1.9 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.6 0.9 2.6 2.6
United States 1.9 0.0 -2.6 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.8 -0.4 1.6 1.4
Euro area 2.8 0.6 -4.1 1.5 1.4 2.1 3.3 0.3 1.5 1.6
Asia 7.0 4.0 2.1 6.6 5.9 2.6 4.5 0.0 2.3 2.5Japan 2.4 -1.2 -5.2 2.9 1.4 0.1 1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.3
Asia (ex Japan) 9.7 7.0 6.1 8.8 7.6 4.1 6.2 0.8 3.9 3.6China 13.0 9.6 9.1 9.9 8.9 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.1 3.0
India 9.2 6.7 7.4 8.3 8.4 4.7 7.3 3.5 7.9 5.5
Asean 6.6 4.3 1.4 7.5 5.5 3.9 8.6 2.7 4.2 4.5Indonesia 6.3 6.0 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.0 9.8 5.0 5.2 6.1
Malaysia 6.3 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.2 2.0 5.4 0.6 1.9 2.6
Philippines 7.1 3.7 1.1 6.6 5.1 2.8 9.3 3.2 3.9 4.0
Thailand 4.9 2.5 -2.2 7.4 4.4 2.2 5.4 -0.9 3.3 3.1
Vietnam 8.5 6.2 5.3 6.6 6.9 8.3 23.0 6.9 9.1 8.2
NIEs 5.8 1.9 -0.9 7.4 4.3 2.3 4.6 1.4 2.4 2.6Hong Kong 6.4 2.2 -2.8 5.9 4.5 2.0 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0
Korea 5.1 2.3 0.2 6.0 4.2 2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.0
Singapore 8.5 1.8 -1.3 13.7 4.9 2.1 6.5 0.6 2.8 2.5
Taiwan 6.0 0.7 -1.9 8.3 4.2 1.8 3.5 -0.9 1.2 1.5
Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011World -0.7 -2.3 -6.9 -6.4 -5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -1.1 -3.2 -10.0 -9.3 -7.9 -5.1 -4.7 -2.7 -3.3 -3.5
Euro area -0.6 -2.0 -6.3 -6.4 -5.3 0.1 -1.7 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1
Asia -0.5 -2.7 -5.4 -4.9 -4.2 6.2 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.3Japan -2.5 -5.8 -9.8 -9.1 -8.5 4.8 3.2 2.8 3.5 3.6
Asia (ex Japan) 0.6 -1.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 7.0 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.1China 0.7 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 11.0 9.4 6.0 4.8 4.1
India -2.6 -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -5.1 -1.4 -2.5 -3.3 -2.8 -2.5
Asean 0.3 -0.4 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 8.3 4.9 6.9 5.3 4.5Indonesia -1.2 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 2.6 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.7
Malaysia -3.2 -4.8 -7.0 -5.4 -4.6 15.7 17.5 16.7 13.5 12.1
Philippines -0.2 -0.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.2 4.4 2.2 5.3 4.5 4.0
Thailand -1.7 -1.1 -4.4 -3.0 -2.9 6.4 0.6 7.7 3.6 2.7
Vietnam -1.8 -2.1 -4.5 -6.2 -4.9 -9.8 -11.8 -7.7 -8.3 -7.1
NIEs 3.9 1.1 -1.9 -1.1 -0.4 6.2 5.1 8.6 6.2 5.2Hong Kong 7.7 0.1 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 12.3 13.6 8.7 8.4 8.3
Korea 3.5 1.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.0 0.6 -0.6 5.1 2.3 1.4
Singapore 12.1 5.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 27.6 19.2 19.1 17.5 15.8
Taiwan -0.4 -0.9 -4.0 -2.8 -2.3 8.8 7.2 11.1 8.5 7.0
Current Account, % of GDPFiscal Balance, % of GDP
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
World United
States
Euro area Japan Asia (ex
Japan)
China India
2008 2009 2010 2011
-4
0
4
8
12
World United
States
Euro area Japan Asia (ex
Japan)
China India
2008 2009 2010 2011
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Asia
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Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 3
Summary
Keith Catlin
Senior Economist
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages
Recent data from the third quarter confirm the notion that growth in
most Asian economies has begun to slow, as the favourable base
effect fades away.
Consensus Forecast panellists have raised their estimate for ex-Japan
Asian growth this year by 0.1 percentage points for the second
consecutive month to the current 8.8% forecast. In 2011, panellists
see the regional economy growing 7.6%.
Despite persistent upward price pressures, Consensus Forecast
panellists have left their inflation estimates unchanged at last months
3.9% estimate. In 2011, regional inflation will moderate to an average
of 3.6%.Note: Data refer to GDP-weighted Asian (ex Japan) average based onmarket exchange rates. For details see note at end of publication.
2000-04 2005-015 2010-14
GDP growth (%) 6.8 7.9 7.8Inflation (%) 2.3 3.4 3.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -1.0 -1.6
Current Account (% of GDP) 3.3 5.7 2.9
-0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2
China
Indonesia
Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan)
India
Vietnam
Korea
Hong Kong
Asean
NIEs
Thailand
Singapore
Philippines
Taiwan
Regional outlook improves
Forecast Changes over last Month
Change in 2010 GDP Growth Forecast
Note: Change between November and October 2010 in percentage points.Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Change in 2010 Inflation Forecast
Note: Change between November and October2010 in percentage points.Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5
Vietnam
Philippines
India
Taiwan
Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan)
China
Hong Kong
Thailand
NIEs
Korea
Asean
Singapore
Indonesia
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Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 4
Panellists raised their 2010 growth forecasts for most of the smaller counties while
leaving the forecasts for the major economies unchanged.GDP 8.8 7.6 =
Despite upward price pressures in the two largest economies in the region, China
and India, panellists left their forecasts for both countries unchanged over last
month's estimates for this year and next.
Inflation 3.9 = 3.6 =
On 18 October, state media reported that Vice-President Xi Jinping was selected
vice-president of the Central Military Commission, thus cementing his position as
Hu Jintaos likely successor, once Hu steps down from the presidency in 2013.
Economic growth slowed in the third quarter to 9.6% year-on-year, as a result of a
higher base effect as well as concerted government policies aimed at slowing
growth.
GDP 9.9 = 8.9 =
Inflation rose from 3.5% in August to 3.6% in September. Inflation 3.1 = 3.0
Robust domestic demand due to improving labour market conditions continues to
fuel economic growth. Recent data from the retail sector corroborate this notion, as
retail sales rose a strong 14.7% over the same month last year.
GDP 5.9 4.5 =
Inflation dropped from 3.0% in August to 2.6% in September. Inflation 2.7 = 3.0
The end of a good monsoon season augurs for a generous autumn harvest this
year, with government estimates projecting it to be approximately 10% larger than
the previous year. The good harvest bodes well for GDP growth, as agriculture is
an important sector.
GDP 8.3 = 8.4 =
Wholesale price inflation accelerated a notch to 8.6% in September, thus ending
the downward trend in place since May.Inflation 8.1 5.5 =
Recent data are showing mixed signals but, on balance, continue to point towards
sustained growth in domestic demand in the third quarter. Moreover, the robust
domestic sector along with a low dependence on external demand would shield
the country in the event of a global economic deceleration.
GDP 6.0 = 6.2
Inflation fell to 5.8% in September, easing for the first time in six months. Inflation 5.1 6.1
Economic growth is likely to have moderated in the third quarter amid slowing
industrial activity. Moreover, consumer confidence continues to slide, suggesting
weaker private consumption in the months ahead.
GDP 6.0 = 4.2 =
Inflation jumped from 2.6% in August to 3.6% in September. Nevertheless,
monetary authorities halted the tightening cycle and left rates unchanged at
2.25%, surprising market analysts who had expected the Bank to raise rates.
Inflation 2.8 3.0
On 15 October, the government unveiled its 2011 budget, targeting a fiscal deficit
of 5.4% of GDP, only a notch below this years 5.6% target. The budget was well
received by the markets, despite delaying the fiscal consolidation measures
needed to achieve the governments objective of cutting the deficit to 3.0% by
2015.
GDP 7.1 = 5.2 =
Inflation decelerated to 1.8% in September, finally breaking the upward trend in
place since the beginning of the year.Inflation 1.9 = 2.6 =
Preliminary data suggest that the economy decelerated in the third quarter.
However, merchandise exports continue to grow at a robust pace, expanding at a
double-digit pace for the ninth consecutive month in August. In addition, overseas
Filipino workers remittances, which account for more than 10% of GDP, were
9.8% higher than in the same month last year, which should buttress private
consumption in the months ahead.
GDP 6.6 5.1
In September, inflation fell to 3.5% from 4.0% in August. Inflation 4.2 4.0 =
China
Hong Kong
India
Asia
ForecastsCurrent Developments
2010 2011
Indonesia
Korea
Philippines
Malaysia
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Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 5
In the third quarter, economic growth slowed to 10.3% from 19.6% annual growth
in the second quarter. The deceleration reflected a slowdown in manufacturing,
due to the characteristic volatility of the pharmaceutical sector. As a result of the
strong economic activity, monetary authorities tightened the policy stance on 14
October, which was aimed at curbing incipient inflationary pressures.
GDP 13.7 4.9
Annual inflation jumped from 3.3% to 3.7% in September. Inflation 2.8 = 2.5 =
Economic growth is likely to remain solid, as rising payrolls should buttress
domestic demand. In addition, exports remain robust but are decelerating amid a
less favourable comparison base.
GDP 8.3 4.2 =
Inflation bounced back from minus 0.5% in August to 0.3% in September. Inflation 1.2 = 1.5
Industrial manufacturing increased 8.7% in August, returning to single-digit growth
for the first time in eight months. Moreover, the resilient export growth may fade, as
the currency continues to appreciate and external demand slumps.
GDP 7.4 4.4 =
Inflation fell to 3.0% in September from 3.3% in August, prompting the Central
Bank to pause the monetary tightening cycle in its 20 October meeting.Inflation 3.3 = 3.1
Industrial output expanded 15.1% annually in September, supported by healthy
domestic demand and strong exports. Meanwhile, despite recent drops in unofficial
exchange rate rates, Governor Nguyen Van Giau has stated that the State Bank
does not plan further exchange rate adjustments following on Augusts
devaluation.
GDP 6.6 6.9
Inflation rose from 8.9% in September to 9.7% in October. Inflation 9.6 8.2
Forecasts
2010 2011
Singapore
Vietnam
Current Developments (continued)
Taiwan
Thailand
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Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 6
Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2010
Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Alldata for India refer to fiscal year ending in March.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
Notes and sources
GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2010
Note: GDP per capita in current USD.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 9.6 9.1 9.9 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1
Hong Kong 2.2 -2.8 5.9 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0
India 6.7 7.4 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.5 8.5
Indonesia 6.0 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.5
Korea 2.3 0.2 6.0 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.0
Malaysia 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.2 5.7 5.6 5.5
Philippines 3.7 1.1 6.6 5.1 5.4 4.9 4.7Singapore 1.8 -1.3 13.7 4.9 5.3 4.8 4.6
Taiwan 0.7 -1.9 8.3 4.2 4.7 4.8 4.8
Thailand 2.5 -2.2 7.4 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.0
Vietnam 6.2 5.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9
Asia (ex Japan) 7.0 6.1 8.8 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.8
Asean 4.3 1.4 7.5 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.7
NIEs 1.9 -0.9 7.4 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 3,406 3,664 4,155 4,813 5,525 6,265 7,171
Hong Kong 30,694 29,991 31,982 33,886 35,766 37,844 40,120
India 1,049 1,087 1,339 1,570 1,788 2,004 2,242
Indonesia 2,127 2,320 2,768 3,123 3,435 3,758 4,138
Korea 19,162 17,078 21,086 24,124 25,953 27,243 28,637
Malaysia 7,992 6,763 7,589 8,442 9,110 9,899 10,977
Philippines 1,847 1,747 1,951 2,156 2,298 2,419 2,599
Singapore 38,904 35,514 40,709 44,350 46,778 49,189 52,096
Taiwan 16,630 16,775 18,366 20,088 21,366 22,371 23,860
Thailand 4,135 3,971 4,326 4,756 5,102 5,437 5,824
Vietnam 1,050 1,056 1,157 1,266 1,442 1,665 1,776
Asia (ex Japan) 2,835 2,912 3,359 3,844 4,320 4,798 5,368
Asean 2,831 2,785 3,184 3,537 3,837 4,151 4,510NIEs 20,576 19,172 22,427 25,059 26,790 28,152 29,754
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
VietnamIndia
Philippines
Indonesia
Asean
Asia (ex Japan)
China
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
Korea
NIEs
Hong Kong
Singapore
4 6 8 10 12 14
Hong Kong
Korea
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
Malaysia
ThailandNIEs
Asean
Taiwan
India
Asia (ex Japan)
China
Singapore
0
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
-4
0
4
8
12
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
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Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 7
Private Consumption, annual variation in % Private Consumption Growth, 2010
Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Datafor China are based on FocusEconomics estimates.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
Notes and sources
Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2010
Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Datafor China refer to nominal urban investment in fixed assets.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.5 9.2
Hong Kong 2.4 -0.4 5.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0
India 6.8 4.3 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.1
Indonesia 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.7
Korea 1.3 0.2 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.7
Malaysia 8.5 0.8 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.7 6.7
Philippines 4.7 4.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.8Singapore 2.7 0.4 6.7 5.1 5.2 4.8 4.6
Taiwan -0.6 1.5 3.1 3.1 4.0 3.3 3.3
Thailand 2.7 -1.1 4.9 4.0 4.1 4.6 4.3
Vietnam 9.3 3.7 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.6 7.3
Asia (ex Japan) 6.7 6.2 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.6
Asean 5.1 2.5 5.5 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
NIEs 1.2 0.5 4.5 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 26.1 30.5 25.1 22.0 21.8 20.7 21.8
Hong Kong 0.8 -1.8 9.9 8.1 5.0 4.9 5.2
India 4.0 7.2 11.6 12.2 12.5 12.9 12.5
Indonesia 11.9 3.3 8.8 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.4
Korea -1.9 -0.2 6.7 4.4 5.0 4.8 4.8
Malaysia 0.8 -5.5 8.5 6.6 5.9 6.8 7.4
Philippines 2.9 -3.5 10.6 5.7 6.3 6.8 6.5
Singapore 13.6 -3.3 10.2 7.6 6.7 6.7 6.9
Taiwan -11.2 -11.8 17.2 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.6
Thailand 1.2 -9.0 10.1 6.8 6.8 8.9 8.1
Vietnam 3.8 8.7 7.9 7.5 8.0 7.9 8.0
Asia (ex Japan) 14.6 16.9 18.1 15.7 15.8 15.5 16.2
Asean 6.8 -1.4 9.3 8.0 8.0 8.5 8.6NIEs -2.0 -3.5 9.9 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1
0 3 6 9 12
Taiwan
Korea
NIEs
Thailand
Indonesia
Philippines
Hong KongAsean
Malaysia
Singapore
India
Vietnam
Asia (ex Japan)
China
0 8 16 24 32
KoreaVietnam
Malaysia
Indonesia
Asean
NIEs
Hong Kong
Thailand
Singapore
Philippines
India
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan)
China
0
2
4
6
8
10
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
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Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 8
Unemployment, 2010
Note: End-of-year unemployment rate. China end-of-year urbanunemployment. India has no official unemployment statistics.Sources: National statistical institutes.
Notes and sources
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2010
Note: Fiscal balance in % of GDP.Sources: National statistical institutes, finance ministries andAsian Development Bank (ADB) for China.
Notes and sources
Unemployment, % of active population
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2
Hong Kong 4.1 4.9 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8
India - - - - - - -
Indonesia 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.6
Korea 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Malaysia 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1
Philippines 6.8 7.1 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1Singapore 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1
Taiwan 5.0 5.7 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.0
Thailand 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2
Vietnam 4.7 4.6 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.0
Asia (ex Japan) 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Asean 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6
NIEs 3.7 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.5 -1.3 -0.7
Hong Kong 0.1 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.7 1.8 2.4
India -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -5.1 -4.5 -3.6 -3.4
Indonesia 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8
Korea 1.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.6
Malaysia -4.8 -7.0 -5.4 -4.6 -3.9 -3.6 -3.4
Philippines -0.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.2 -2.7 -2.4 -2.2
Singapore 5.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.9
Taiwan -0.9 -4.0 -2.8 -2.3 -1.4 -1.6 -1.4
Thailand -1.1 -4.4 -3.0 -2.9 -2.7 -1.7 -1.6
Vietnam -2.1 -4.5 -6.2 -4.9 -3.4 -3.0 -3.2
Asia (ex Japan) -1.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -1.8 -1.5 -1.1
Asean -0.4 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 -1.7 -1.5 -1.3NIEs 1.1 -1.9 -1.1 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5
0 2 4 6 8
Thailand
Singapore
Korea
Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan)
NIEs
Hong Kong
China
Asean
Vietnam
Taiwan
Indonesia
Philippines
-8 -6 -4 -2 0
VietnamIndia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Asia (ex Japan)
Taiwan
Asean
China
Indonesia
NIEs
Korea
Singapore
Hong Kong
2
4
6
8
10
Asia (ex
Japan)
China NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
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Summary November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS
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Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2010
Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %.China: 12-month lending rate.Hong Kong: 91-day Hong Kong interbank offered rate(HIBOR).India: RBI repurchase rate.Indonesia: Overnight BI rate.Korea: Bank of Korea base rate.Malaysia: Overnight policy rate.Philippines: 91-day Treasury bill rate.Singapore: 3-month Singapore interbank rate (SIBOR).
Taiwan: CB discount rate.Thailand: 1-day repurchase rate.Vietnam: Base rate.Sources: National central banks.
Notes and sources
Inflation, annual average variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2010
Note: Annual average variation of consumer price index in %.Data for India refer to wholesale price index (WPI).Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 5.9 -0.7 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1
Hong Kong 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.1
India 7.3 3.5 7.9 5.5 4.8 4.4 4.3
Indonesia 9.8 5.0 5.2 6.1 5.6 5.7 5.2
Korea 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1
Malaysia 5.4 0.6 1.9 2.6 2.6 3.0 2.6
Philippines 9.3 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.5 4.8 4.5Singapore 6.5 0.6 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.6
Taiwan 3.5 -0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9
Thailand 5.4 -0.9 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.6
Vietnam 23.0 6.9 9.1 8.2 7.3 6.7 6.1
Asia (ex Japan) 6.2 0.8 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.4
Asean 8.6 2.7 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.3 3.9
NIEs 4.6 1.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7
0 3 6 9 12
Taiwan
Malaysia
NIEs
Hong Kong
Singapore
Korea
ChinaThailand
Asia (ex Japan)
Philippines
Asean
Indonesia
India
Vietnam
-4
0
4
8
12
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
0 2 4 6 8 10
Hong KongSingapore
Taiwan
NIEs
Thailand
Korea
Malaysia
Philippines
Asean
Asia (ex Japan)
China
India
Indonesia
Vietnam
0
2
4
6
8
10
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 5.3 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.8 7.3
Hong Kong 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.0
India 5.0 5.0 6.4 7.1 7.1 6.8 7.0
Indonesia 9.3 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6
Korea 3.3 2.0 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8
Malaysia 3.3 2.0 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8
Philippines 6.1 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.3
Singapore 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.5 2.6
Taiwan 2.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5
Thailand 2.8 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.0
Vietnam 8.5 8.0 8.6 9.3 9.9 9.3 9.2
Asia (ex Japan) 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5
Asean 5.6 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.7NIEs 2.4 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.3
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Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2010
Note: Current account balance as % of GDP.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.China: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
Notes and sources
Nominal Depreciation vs. USD, in % Depreciation versus USD, 2010
Note: Nominal depreciation of national currencies versusUSD in %. Positive number means currency is losing valueagainst USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicativeinformation.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.China: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China -6.9 -0.1 -3.2 -4.8 -2.7 -1.8 -4.1
Hong Kong -0.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
India 21.6 -12.9 -1.9 -4.1 -2.1 0.0 -1.1
Indonesia 15.1 -17.0 -11.7 -3.2 0.4 1.7 0.9
Korea 25.7 -8.2 -6.8 -5.6 -3.4 -0.3 -0.1
Malaysia 4.5 -1.2 -5.6 -6.6 -1.7 0.5 -0.2
Philippines 12.8 -2.4 -6.1 -3.7 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6Singapore -0.1 -2.6 -5.5 -2.1 -2.1 1.8 -0.4
Taiwan 1.3 -2.6 -2.9 -2.2 -1.1 0.3 -1.3
Thailand 3.4 -4.7 -9.3 -1.5 -0.9 0.8 0.6
Vietnam 6.1 8.7 5.4 2.5 -4.2 -1.4 8.9
Asia (ex Japan) 3.6 -3.9 -4.0 -4.3 -2.3 -0.8 -2.4
Asean 8.4 -7.5 -7.9 -3.0 -0.9 0.9 0.9
NIEs 14.1 -5.1 -4.9 -3.8 -2.4 0.1 -0.4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 9.4 6.0 4.8 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6
Hong Kong 13.6 8.7 8.4 8.3 7.8 7.6 5.9
India -2.5 -3.3 -2.8 -2.5 -2.1 -1.9 -1.8
Indonesia 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3
Korea -0.6 5.1 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6
Malaysia 17.5 16.7 13.5 12.1 10.7 11.1 10.6
Philippines 2.2 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.7 2.7 2.4
Singapore 19.2 19.1 17.5 15.8 15.2 13.5 13.6
Taiwan 7.2 11.1 8.5 7.0 6.5 6.6 6.5
Thailand 0.6 7.7 3.6 2.7 3.2 2.5 2.3
Vietnam -11.8 -7.7 -8.3 -7.1 -7.0 -6.2 -5.9
Asia (ex Japan) 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7
Asean 4.9 6.9 5.3 4.5 4.2 3.7 3.5NIEs 5.1 8.6 6.2 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.5
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Indonesia
Thailand
Asean
Korea
Philippines
Malaysia
SingaporeNIEs
Asia (ex Japan)
China
Taiwan
India
Hong Kong
Vietnam
-10 0 10 20
VietnamIndia
Indonesia
Korea
Thailand
Asia (ex Japan)
Philippines
China
Asean
NIEs
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Malaysia
Singapore
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
-4
0
4
8
12
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
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Export Growth, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2010
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exportsSources: National statistical institutes and central banks.China: Customs Department.
Notes and sources
Import Growth, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2010
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports.Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.China: Customs Department.
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 17.4 -16.0 24.7 14.3 6.1 5.3 4.4
Hong Kong 5.6 -11.9 17.0 9.8 6.0 7.8 8.4
India 13.7 -7.8 19.5 16.6 13.3 10.9 11.7
Indonesia 18.3 -14.4 23.5 12.4 11.3 12.0 9.1
Korea 14.2 -13.7 22.3 9.9 10.6 9.4 8.7
Malaysia 13.1 -21.1 21.4 11.9 10.7 9.1 7.0
Philippines -2.2 -22.3 22.3 10.1 5.9 5.4 5.1Singapore 12.7 -20.2 24.7 12.2 10.3 12.8 14.2
Taiwan 3.4 -20.2 30.5 9.5 10.8 8.4 9.1
Thailand 16.8 -13.9 22.0 9.1 12.7 11.7 8.7
Vietnam 29.1 -9.7 21.3 17.7 13.0 17.5 15.1
Asia (ex Japan) 13.7 -15.7 23.6 12.5 8.6 8.3 7.8
Asean 14.4 -17.8 23.4 11.9 11.0 11.8 10.7
NIEs 9.4 -16.0 23.2 10.4 9.4 9.6 10.1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 18.5 -11.2 34.2 17.1 7.1 6.5 6.7
Hong Kong 6.2 -10.2 18.9 11.1 5.1 6.3 8.5
India 21.2 -9.6 24.4 16.7 10.2 10.7 12.4
Indonesia 36.9 -27.7 34.2 16.7 11.4 13.7 13.2
Korea 21.8 -25.7 32.6 12.6 11.6 9.3 8.7
Malaysia 6.5 -21.0 29.3 14.0 10.5 12.7 7.6
Philippines 6.2 -24.1 19.7 11.4 8.3 6.6 7.0
Singapore 21.3 -23.1 23.5 12.9 10.0 12.9 18.1
Taiwan 9.4 -26.9 39.2 11.6 11.4 8.7 9.7
Thailand 26.4 -24.9 32.3 11.1 10.2 9.1 9.1
Vietnam 28.6 -14.7 21.3 15.5 11.8 15.9 14.6
Asia (ex Japan) 17.5 -17.0 28.9 14.6 8.7 8.7 9.4
Asean 20.7 -23.0 26.7 13.4 10.4 12.2 12.9NIEs 14.7 -20.9 27.0 12.0 9.2 9.2 11.0
15 20 25 30 35
Hong Kong
India
Vietnam
Malaysia
Thailand
Korea
PhilippinesNIEs
Asean
Indonesia
Asia (ex Japan)
China
Singapore
Taiwan
15 20 25 30 35 40
Hong KongPhilippines
Vietnam
Singapore
India
Asean
NIEs
Asia (ex Japan)
Malaysia
Thailand
Korea
China
Indonesia
Taiwan
-30
-15
0
15
30
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
-50
-25
0
25
50
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
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International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2010
Note: International reserves as months of imports.Sources: Central banks.
Notes and sources
External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2010
Note: External debt as % of GDP.Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks andfinance ministries.
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 20.6 28.6 23.9 22.3 18.5 22.7 21.9
Hong Kong 5.6 8.8 8.2 8.1 7.7 8.1 8.0
India 9.9 12.2 10.1 9.4 8.6 9.4 8.6
Indonesia 5.3 9.4 8.4 7.9 7.8 7.0 6.4
Korea 5.7 10.2 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.2 7.8
Malaysia 7.5 9.9 8.2 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.1
Philippines 7.4 11.0 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.6Singapore 6.6 9.2 8.6 8.4 8.6 7.8 6.7
Taiwan 14.8 24.2 19.0 18.3 17.9 17.4 16.7
Thailand 7.6 12.6 10.9 10.8 11.2 10.1 8.9
Vietnam 3.6 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0
Asia (ex Japan) 11.9 17.5 15.0 14.2 12.6 13.9 13.2
Asean 6.6 9.5 8.5 8.3 8.4 7.7 6.9
NIEs 7.4 11.8 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014China 8.3 8.6 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3
Hong Kong 308 319 303 255 211 173 139
India 18.5 19.9 16.4 15.3 14.0 13.8 12.8
Indonesia 31.9 32.2 25.8 22.8 21.8 20.8 19.6
Korea 40.6 48.3 39.4 35.7 32.2 30.9 29.5
Malaysia 30.8 35.7 28.1 24.7 22.9 21.4 20.2
Philippines 32.3 33.1 30.8 27.6 25.4 24.4 22.7
Singapore 216 235 212 210 207 204 202
Taiwan 23.6 21.1 21.5 21.0 17.7 19.1 18.9
Thailand 24.0 26.6 23.0 20.6 19.9 20.1 19.6
Vietnam 28.9 30.3 29.0 28.6 24.7 24.3 23.6
Asia (ex Japan) 28.8 29.2 25.3 22.3 19.8 18.2 16.4
Asean 54.4 58.3 50.8 47.5 45.5 44.0 42.1NIEs 89.6 99.1 87.8 78.8 70.2 65.0 59.8
0 5 10 15 20 25
Vietnam
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Korea
Indonesia
Asean
SingaporeIndia
NIEs
Thailand
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan)
Taiwan
China
0 10 20 30 40
China
India
Taiwan
Thailand
Asia (ex Japan)
Indonesia
Malaysia
Vietnam
Philippines
Korea
0
8
16
24
32
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
0
25
50
75
100
125
Asia (ex
Japan)
China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
2008 2009 2010 2011
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Quarterly Data | Economic Growth and Inflation | Q1 2008 - Q4 2010
Gross domestic productannual var. in % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4China 11.3 10.7 9.9 7.5 6.5 8.2 9.5 11.1 11.9 10.3 9.6 8.6
Hong Kong 8.6 5.6 2.6 -1.2 -7.7 -3.8 -2.4 2.5 8.0 6.5 5.7 4.3
India 8.6 7.8 7.7 5.8 5.8 6.0 8.6 6.5 8.6 8.8 7.8 8.8
Indonesia 6.2 6.4 6.4 5.3 4.5 4.1 4.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.2
Korea 5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3 -4.3 -2.2 1.0 6.0 8.1 7.2 4.3 4.5Malaysia 7.6 6.5 4.9 0.1 -6.2 -3.9 -1.2 4.4 10.1 8.9 5.8 4.7
Philippines 3.9 3.7 4.6 2.8 0.5 1.2 0.2 2.1 7.8 7.9 5.8 4.8
Singapore 7.4 2.7 0.0 -2.5 -8.9 -1.7 1.8 3.8 16.9 19.6 10.3 10.7
Taiwan 6.9 5.4 -0.8 -7.1 -9.1 -6.9 -1.0 9.1 13.7 12.5 7.1 3.0
Thailand 6.4 5.2 2.9 -4.2 -7.1 -4.9 -2.7 5.9 12.0 9.1 6.5 3.5
Vietnam 7.5 6.7 6.5 5.6 3.1 4.5 6.0 6.9 5.8 6.2 6.5 7.2
Asia (ex Japan) 9.2 8.3 7.3 4.2 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.7 10.6 9.6 8.2 7.5
Asean 6.4 5.4 4.5 1.4 -1.3 0.3 1.5 4.9 9.1 9.0 6.7 6.0
NIEs 6.4 4.6 1.9 -3.8 -6.4 -3.5 0.2 6.1 10.4 9.8 5.8 4.9
2008 2009 2010
Yoy change of quarterlyavg. CPI % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4China 8.0 7.8 5.3 2.5 -0.6 -1.5 -1.3 0.7 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.5
Hong Kong 4.6 5.7 4.6 2.3 1.7 -0.1 -0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.8
India 6.0 9.0 11.1 8.6 3.6 0.5 0.3 4.3 9.5 10.6 9.0 6.3
Indones ia 7.6 10.7 13.5 12.6 9.2 5.7 2.8 2.6 3.7 4.4 6.2 6.1
Korea 3.0 3.6 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.2 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.2
Malaysia 2.6 4.9 8.4 5.9 3.7 1.3 -2.3 -0.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3
Philippines 5.5 9.7 12.2 9.7 6.9 3.2 0.3 2.9 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.4
Singapore 6.6 7.5 6.6 5.4 2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 0.9 3.1 1.6 3.7
Taiwan 3.6 4.2 4.5 1.9 0.0 -0.8 -1.3 -1.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.1
Thailand 5.1 7.5 7.3 2.2 -0.3 -2.8 -2.2 1.9 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.9
Vietnam 11.1 15.5 20.2 23.0 22.4 17.4 11.0 6.9 5.2 5.9 7.3 8.2
Asia (ex Japan) 6.5 7.3 6.6 4.4 1.6 0.1 -0.3 1.5 3.4 4.1 4.2 3.9
Asean 6.2 9.0 10.9 9.0 6.4 3.2 1.0 2.0 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.5
NIEs 3.7 4.4 4.7 3.8 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.7
2008 2009 2010
GDP, year-on-year variation in %
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10
Asia (ex Japan) China
India Korea
Consumer Prices, year-on-year variation in %
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10
Asia (ex Japan) China
India Korea
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November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia
Economic Release Calendar
Date Country Event
27 October Korea Q3 2010 National Accounts
28 October Korea September Balance of Payments
29 October Indonesia September Merchandise Trade
Korea October Industrial Production
Singapore Q3 2010 Unemployment
Thailand September Industrial Production
Thailand September Merchandise Trade
1 November China October PMI
Hong Kong September Retail Sales
India October Merchandise Trade
Indonesia October Consumer Prices
Korea October Consumer Prices
2 November Thailand October Consumer Prices
3 November Malaysia September Merchandise Trade
5 November Philippines October Consumer Prices
Taiwan October Consumer Prices
Taiwan October Producer Prices
8 November Taiwan October Merchandise Trade
10 November Korea October Unemployment
Malaysia September Industrial Production
Philippines September Merchandise Trade
11 November China October Consumer Prices
China October Fixed Asset Investment
China October Retail Sales
China October Industrial Production
India September Industrial Production
Indonesia September Industrial Production
12 November Hong Kong Q3 2010 National Accounts
India September Industrial Production
14 November India October Wholesale Prices
15 November Korea October Merchandise Trade
16 November Singapore October Merchandise Trade
Indonesia Q3 2010 Balance of Payments
18 November Indonesia Q3 2010 National Accounts
19 November Malaysia Q3 2010 National Accounts
20 November Taiwan Q3 2010 Balance of Payments
22 November Hong Kong October Consumer Prices
Taiwan October Unemployment
23 November Korea Q3 2010 External Debt
Singapore October Consumer Prices
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China November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia
According to official media, the government currently expects the economy to
grow 9.5% this year. Currently, panellists have left their projections unchanged
over the previous month and expect the economy to expand 9.9%. For next
year, panellists expect the economy to expand 8.9% which is unchanged over
last months Consensus.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production slows in September
In September, industrial production expanded 13.3% over the same month
last year. The reading came in below the previous months 13.9% expansion
and undershot market expectations, which had seen industrial production
strengthening to a 14.0% expansion.
One of the primary drivers behind the monthly deceleration was transport
equipment, which slowed from 16.6% year-on-year in August to 14.4% in
September. In addition, electronic equipment manufacturing also slowed,
moderating to 11.6% annually (August: +14.9% yoy).
As a result of the September reading, industrial production growth weakened
to 13.5% in the third quarter, down from the 15.9% expansion recorded in thesecond quarter. Meanwhile, annual average growth in industrial production
moderated for the first time in a year, falling a notch from 16.9% in August to
16.8%.
Consensus Forecast participants expect industrial output to grow 15.0% this
year, which is 0.3 percentage points down from last months estimate. For
2011, the panel expects industrial production growth to moderate to 13.6%.
REAL SECTOR | Retail sales pick up speed
In September, nominal retail sales added 18.8% over the same month last
year. The figure came in above the 18.4% increase tallied in August and overshotmarket expectations, which had seen retail sales accelerating only a notch to
an 18.5% increase.
The pick-up in retail was, in part, the result of stronger sales for foodstuffs,
which accelerated from 28.1% year-on-year growth in August to 31.9% in
September. Meanwhile, car sales, which had previously been an important
driver in the surge in retail sales, slowed over the previous month (August:
+35.2 yoy; September: +29.7% yoy).
Despite the strong September reading, nominal retail sales added 18.4% in
the third quarter, down a notch from the second quarters 18.5% reading. On
the other hand, annual average retail sales continued to rise, improving from
17.7% in August to 18.0%, which is the highest level since July 2009.
Consensus Forecast panellists expect retail sales to grow 18.9% this year,
which is 0.2 percentage points down over last months forecast. For 2011, the
panel anticipates retail sales to slow to 17.1%.
REAL SECTOR | Investment slows again
In the first nine months of the year, nominal urban fixed-asset investment
increased 24.5% over the same period last year. The reading was down from
the 24.8% figure tallied in the first eight months of the year and undershot
market expectations by a notch, which had seen investment slowing to 24.6%.
Based on the nine-month growth rate published by the National Statistical Office
(NBS), urban fixed-asset investment grew 23.2% year-on-year in September,
which was down from the previous months 23.9% reading.
35.1
31.6
24.3
20.5
26.6 26.6 26.325.4 25.4
24.9
22.3
23.923.2
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
%
Year-on-year
Annual Average
Nominal Urban Fixed Investment | variation in %
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of nominal urban fixed in-vestment in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year,January and February data are reported together.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomicscalculations.
15.5
16.215.8
17.5
15.2
22.1
18.018.5 18.7 18.3
17.918.4
18.8
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
%
Year-on-year Annual Average
Nominal Retail Sales | variation in %
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of retail sales in %. Janu-ary and February data are affected by to seasonal factors related to theLunar New Year.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomicscalculations.
Industrial Production | variation in %
Note: Year-on-year and annual average var. of industrial production in %.Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, January and Feb-ruary data are reported together.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomicscalculations.
13.9
16.1
19.218.5
20.7 20.7
18.1 17.8
16.5
13.7 13.413.9
13.3
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
%
Year-on-year Annual Average
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China November 2010FOCUSECONOMICS
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia
Consensus Forecast participants expect urban fixed-asset investment growth
to accelerate to 25.1% for the full year 2010, which is 0.2 percentage points up
from last months estimate. For 2011, the panel expects investment to moderate
to 22.0%.
OUTLOOK | PMI jumps in September
The September Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the National Bureau
of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFPL)rose by 2.1 percentage points to 53.8%. The figure beat market forecasts,
which had seen the index rising only to 52.0%. With the September reading,
the index has now tallied more than a year and a half above the 50% threshold
after plummeting far below that level in November 2008. A reading above 50%
indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below
50% implies a contraction.
The improvement was broad-based, as nine of the 11 components composing
the index rose over the previous month. That said, the category that experienced
the most marked increase was input prices, which could indicate an increase
in price pressures going forward.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises again in September
In September, consumer prices rose for the third consecutive month to reach
3.6% annually. The figure came in a notch above the 3.5% year-on-year increase
registered in the previous month, but was in line with market expectations.
Furthermore, the reading represented the highest level in nearly two years.
The main drivers behind the increase were higher prices for food. As a result of
the September figure, annual average inflation rose from the 1.9% registered
in August to 2.3%, the highest level in over a year.
Producer prices, in contrast, were flat over the previous month. In September,the producer price index (PPI) added a more-than-expected 4.3% annually,
which mirrored the previous months reading. More moderate producer prices
may feed into lower consumer prices going forward.
On 20 October, Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan warned that inflation
risks could increase going forward. Currently, the government maintains a 3.0%
inflation target for this year. Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation
to average 3.1% in 2010, which is 0.1 percentage points down from last months
estimate. For 2011, the panel expects inflation to moderate a notch to 3.0%.
MONETARY SECTOR | PBOC surprises market by raising interest ratesAfter the close of business on 19 October, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC)
surprised the market by lifting both the 1-year deposit rate and the headline 1-
year lending rate by 25 basis points, from 2.25% to 2.50% and from 5.31% to
5.56%, respectively. The decision took effect on 20 October. monetary policy
makers had left interest rates unchanged since December 2008.
The hike came on the heels of the 11 October decision to raise the reserve
requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points. Currently, the RRR stands at 17.5%
for the countrys largest lenders. The hike represented the fourth time this year
that the PBOC increased the RRR, with the last move taking place in May.
These measures signal that the countrys policy makers are firmly committed
to keeping inflation expectations under control. Furthermore, a tighter monetary
policy corroborates the notion that Chinese leaders are not concerned about a
global double-dip recession.
-0.8-0.5
0.6
1.9
1.5
2.72.4
2.83.1
2.9
3.33.5 3.6
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
%
Year-on-year
Annual Average
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
Note: Annual and annual average variation ofconsumer price index in %.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).
Purchasing Managers Index
Note: Purchasing Managers Index from the National Bureau of Statistics ofChina (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).A reading above 50 shows an increase while a value below 50 shows adecrease.Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and the China Federa-tion of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
%
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
%
Monetary Policy Rate | in %
Note: One-year lending rate in %.Source: Peoples Bank of China (PBOC).
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Merchandise Trade | USD bn
Note: Monthly exports, imports and trade balance in USD billion.Source: General Administration of Customs of the Peoples Republic of Chinaand FocusEconomics calculations.
-50
0
50
100
150
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Trade Balance Exports Imports
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Export growth moderates further
In September, exports added 25.1% over the same month last year to reach
USD 145.0 billion. The figure came in below the 34.4% expansion in August
and undershot market expectations, which had seen exports growing 26.0%.
The reading represented the fourth consecutive month of slowing export growth.
Meanwhile, imports grew 24.1% year-on-year (August: +35.2% yoy) to reach
USD 128.1 billion. As a result, the trade surplus shrunk from USD 20.1 billion
in August to USD 16.9 billion in September.
Despite the moderation in September, the three-month average in exports
reached USD 143.3 billion, which is well above the USD 136.0 billion pre-crisis
peak reached in September 2008. Consensus Forecast panellists estimate
year exports to grow 24.7% this year and 14.3% in 2011.
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Economic Indicators | 2005 - 2014
Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Real Sector Population (million) 1,322 1,314 1,323 1,331 1,340 1,365 1,374 1,382 1,391 1,400
GDP per capita (USD) 1,685 2,032 2,564 3,406 3,720 4,184 4,838 5,578 6,358 7,293
GDP (USD bn) 2,228 2,671 3,391 4,535 4,984 5,711 6,646 7,711 8,845 10,211
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 10.4 11.6 13.0 9.6 9.1 9.9 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) 12.0 9.8 10.7 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.5 9.2
Nom. Fixed Urban Invest. (ann. var. in %) 26.0 23.9 25.8 26.1 30.5 25.1 22.0 21.8 20.7 21.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. in %) 16.3 16.4 18.0 12.9 11.1 15.0 13.6 13.1 12.8 12.7
Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 12.9 13.7 16.8 21.7 15.5 18.9 17.1 17.6 18.2 19.0
Unemployment (% of active population) 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -0.7 0.7 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.5 -1.3 -0.7
Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 in %) 11.8 17.5 21.4 8.6 32.4 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.6 2.8 6.5 1.2 1.9 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) 1.8 1.5 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 3.2 3.0 5.4 -1.1 1.7 - - - - -
12-Month Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.58 6.12 7.47 5.31 5.31 5.55 5.95 6.12 6.85 7.33
Stock Market (SSE comp. var. in %) -8.3 130 96.7 -65.4 80.0 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 8.07 7.82 7.30 6.83 6.83 6.61 6.31 6.15 6.04 5.80
Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, average) 8.18 7.94 7.59 6.93 6.83 6.72 6.46 6.23 6.09 5.92
External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 7.2 9.4 11.0 9.4 6.0 4.8 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 161 250 372 426 297 272 274 299 339 364
Trade Balance (USD bn) 102 177 262 297 196 176 164 158 147 116
Exports (USD bn) 763 969 1,218 1,430 1,202 1,505 1,720 1,825 1,922 2,006
Imports (USD bn) 660 792 956 1,133 1,005 1,330 1,557 1,667 1,775 1,894
Exports (annual variation in %) 28.4 27.1 25.7 17.4 -16.0 24.7 14.3 6.1 5.3 4.4
Imports (annual variation in %) 17.7 19.9 20.7 18.5 -11.2 34.2 17.1 7.1 6.5 6.7
International Reserves (USD bn) 819 1,066 1,528 1,946 2,399 2,654 2,899 2,574 3,353 3,450
International Reserves (months of imports) 14.9 16.2 19.2 20.6 28.6 23.9 22.3 18.5 22.7 21.9
External Debt (USD bn) 281 323 374 375 429 386 396 442 496 540
External Debt (% of GDP) 12.6 12.1 11.0 8.3 8.6 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3
Quarterly Data Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 9.5 11.1 11.9 10.3 9.6 8.6 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0Industrial Production (ann. var. in %) 12.3 17.9 19.6 15.9 13.5 12.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.5
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) -1.3 0.7 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.4
12-Month Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.55 5.76 5.94 6.01 5.95
Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.79 6.70 6.61 6.54 6.47 6.36 6.31
Monthly Data Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10Nom. Fixed Urban Invest. (ann. var. in %) 20.5 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.4 25.4 24.9 22.3 23.9 23.2
Industrial Production (ann. var. in %) 18.5 20.7 20.7 18.1 17.8 16.5 13.7 13.4 13.9 13.3
Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 17.5 15.2 22.1 18.0 18.5 18.7 18.3 17.9 18.4 18.8
PMI (50.0%-point threshold) 56.6 55.8 52.0 55.1 55.7 53.9 52.1 51.2 51.7 53.8
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.9 1.5 2.7 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.6
Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.79 6.78 6.80 6.70
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-6
0
6
12
18
1995 2000 2005 2010
ChinaAsia (ex Japan)
World
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
ChinaAsia (ex Japan)World
0
5
10
15
1995 2000 2005 2010
China
Asia (ex Japan)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1995 2000 2005 2010
China
Asia (ex Japan)
6
8
10
12
14
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
6
8
10
12
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
8
9
10
11
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2010
2011
20
22
24
26
28
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2010
2011
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts
5 | Consumption | % variation 6 | Investment | % variation
Real GDP growth in %2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts
General:Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All realsector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS),Asian Development Bank (ADB) and FocusEconomics estimates. See be-low for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Fore-cast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.Source: NBS.
3 GDP, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: FocusEconomicsestimate.
6 Nominal urban fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last18 months.
8 Nominal urban fixed investment, change in 2010 and 2011 forecastsduring the last 18 months.9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.10 Urban unemployment, % of active population. Source: NBS.11 Balance of central government, % of GDP. Source: ADB.12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during thelast 18 months.13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18months.14 Balance of central government, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts
during the last 18 months.
Notes and sources
1 | Real GDP | 1995 - 2014 | % variation
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011Allianz 10.0 9.0
ANZ 10.2 9.6
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 10.0 9.0
Capital Economics 10.0 8.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 9.5 8.8Core Pacific-Yamaichi 9.5 8.8
Credit Suisse 9.7 8.8
Daiwa Capital Markets 9.8 8.6
DBS Bank 10.0 9.5
Deutsche Bank 9.6 8.6
Goldman Sachs 10.1 10.0
Hang Seng Bank 9.5 9.0
HSBC 10.0 8.9
ING 10.0 9.0
JPMorgan 9.8 8.6
Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 9.5 8.7
Morgan Stanley 10.0 9.5
RBC Capital Markets 9.7 8.8
Standard Chartered Bank 10.0 8.5UBS 10.0 8.7
United Overseas Bank 10.0 8.3
Wing Hang Bank 10.2 -
SummaryMinimum 9.5 8.0
Maximum 10.2 10.0
Median 10.0 8.8
Consensus 9.9 8.9History30 days ago 9.9 8.9
60 days ago 10.0 8.9
90 days ago 10.1 8.9
Additional Forecasts
IMF (Oct. 2010) 10.5 9.6ADB (Sep. 2010) 9.6 9.1
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0
6
12
18
24
1995 2000 2005 2010
China
Asia (ex Japan)
2
3
4
5
1995 2000 2005 2010
China
Asia (ex Japan)
-8
-4
0
4
1995 2000 2005 2010
ChinaAsia (ex Japan)World
10
12
14
16
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
20102011
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
20102011
-4
-3
-2
-1
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
20102011
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts
9 | Industry | % variation
13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst
10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011Allianz - - - - - - - - -2.7 -2.3
ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 9.8 9.4 26.0 21.5 16.6 16.0 4.3 4.0 -3.0 -1.5
Capital Economics - - - - - - - - -3.0 -2.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 9.0 9.5 - - 14.5 12.7 4.1 4.0 -2.7 -2.4
Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - - - - - - - - -
Credit Suisse 9.6 9.7 - - - - - - - -
Daiwa Capital Markets - - - - 12.3 12.5 - - -1.1 1.3
DBS Bank - - 24.5 23.5 - - - - -2.8 -2.5
Deutsche Bank 9.0 9.0 21.0 20.0 13.5 12.0 - - -2.5 -2.0
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -2.0 -
Hang Seng Bank - - - - 14.0 12.0 - - - -
HSBC 9.5 9.2 26.0 20.0 15.5 13.2 4.3 4.3 -2.8 -2.6
ING - - 28.0 25.0 17.8 17.0 4.2 4.2 -2.8 -2.4
JPMorgan - - - - 15.9 13.6 - - -2.1 -1.8
Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 9.2 9.7 - - - - 4.3 4.2 - -
Morgan Stanley - - - - - - - - -3.0 -3.0
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - - - -2.3 -1.1
Standard Chartered Bank - - - - - - - - - -UBS 9.7 9.0 - - - - - - -3.5 -2.0
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - - - -2.7 -1.9
Wing Hang Bank - - 25.0 - 15.0 - - - - -
SummaryMinimum 9.0 9.0 21.0 20.0 12.3 12.0 4.1 4.0 -3.5 -3.0
Maximum 9.8 9.7 28.0 25.0 17.8 17.0 4.3 4.3 -1.1 1.3
Median 9.5 9.4 25.5 21.5 15.0 13.0 4.3 4.2 -2.7 -2.0
Consensus 9.4 9.4 25.1 22.0 15.0 13.6 4.2 4.1 -2.6 -1.9History30 days ago 9.4 9.4 24.9 22.0 15.3 13.6 4.3 4.2 -2.6 -1.9
60 days ago 9.4 9.3 25.0 21.7 15.3 13.6 4.3 4.2 -2.6 -1.9
90 days ago 9.4 9.3 25.0 21.7 15.3 13.6 4.3 4.2 -2.6 -1.8
Fiscal Balance% of GDP
Industry% variation
Unemployment% of active pop.
Consumption% variation
Investment% variation
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0
2
4
6
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
MaximumConsensusMinimum
0
2
4
6
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
MaximumConsensusMinimum
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1995 2000 2005 2010
China
Asia (ex Japan)
-4
0
4
8
12
Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
China
Asia (ex Japan)
0
10
20
30
40
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
-5
0
5
10
2000 2003 2006 2009
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
Monetary Sector | Inflation, Money, Producer Prices and Stock Market
19 | Producer Prices | % var.
15 | Inflation | 1995 - 2014 | in % Inflation | annual avg. var. of consumer price index in %
17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst
21 | MSCI Broad China Index 22 | Stock Market | SSE
20 | Money | % variation
18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst
16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in %
General:Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China(NBS) and Peoples Bank of China (PBOC). See below for details. Fore-casts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
15Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in%. Source: NBS.16 Quarterly inflation, average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in%. Source: NBS.17Inflation, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.18Inflation, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.19Producer price index, annual variation in % (eop). 2000-2009.Source: NBS.20Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: PBOC.21Daily MSCI Broad China index in USD. From Jan. 2008 until end ofprevious month. Source: MSCI Barra.22Daily index levels, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index(SSE). Jan. 2008 until end of previous month. Source: Shanghai Stock
Exchange.
Notes and sources
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011Allianz 3.2 3.0
ANZ 2.9 3.0
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 3.5 2.8
Capital Economics 2.8 2.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 3.0 3.7Core Pacific-Yamaichi 2.6 3.0
Credit Suisse 3.0 4.3
Daiwa Capital Markets 3.5 2.5
DBS Bank 4.0 3.0
Deutsche Bank 3.0 2.5
Goldman Sachs 2.4 1.3
Hang Seng Bank 3.0 2.5
HSBC 2.9 2.5
ING 2.5 2.5
JPMorgan 2.8 2.7
Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 3.8 4.4
Morgan Stanley 2.8 3.0
RBC Capital Markets - -
Standard Chartered Bank 2.5 4.0UBS 3.0 3.5
United Overseas Bank 3.9 4.7
Wing Hang Bank 4.0 -
SummaryMinimum 2.4 1.3
Maximum 4.0 4.7
Median 3.0 3.0
Consensus 3.1 3.0History30 days ago 3.1 3.1
60 days ago 3.2 3.1
90 days ago 3.3 3.1
Additional Forecasts
IMF (Oct. 2010) 3.5 2.7ADB (Sep. 2010) 3.2 3.2
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4
6
8
10
12
14
1995 2000 2005 2010
5
6
7
8
Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
4
5
6
7
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
MaximumConsensusMinimum
4
5
6
7
8
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
MaximumConsensusMinimum
5
6
7
8
9
1995 2000 2005 2010
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
MaximumConsensusMinimum
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
MaximumConsensusMinimum
Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
29 | CNY/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst
27 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD
23 | Interest Rate | 1995 - 2014 | in % 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in %
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst
30 | CNY/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts
Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
General:Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. Allmonetary and external sector data are from the National Bureau of Statis-tics of China (NBS), the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), State Adminis-tration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and General Administration of Cus-toms of the Peoples Republic of China (Customs). See below for details.
Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
23Interest rate, 12-month Lending Rate in % (eop). Source: PBOC.24 Quarterly interest rate, 12-month Lending Rate in % (eop). Source:PBOC.
25Interest rate, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.26Interest rate, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.27Exchange rate,CNY per USD (eop). Source: SAFE.28 Quarterly exchange rate, CNY per USD (eop). Source: PBOC.29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months.30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: SAFE.32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: Customs.33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: PBOC.34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecastsduring the last 18 months.35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: Customs.
36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: SAFE.
Notes and sources
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011Allianz - - 6.60 6.30
ANZ 5.85 - 6.62 6.21
Bank of China (Hong Kong) - - 6.40 6.20Capital Economics 5.31 6.12 6.68 6.50
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. - - 6.65 6.40
Core Pacific-Yamaichi 5.49 6.03 6.78 6.57
Credit Suisse 5.58 6.12 6.70 6.47
Daiwa Capital Markets 5.58 5.58 6.45 6.20
DBS Bank 5.58 - 6.63 -
Deutsche Bank - - 6.65 6.40
Goldman Sachs - - 6.56 6.24
Hang Seng Bank 5.30 5.60 6.60 6.25
HSBC 5.31 5.31 6.67 6.54
ING - - 6 .50 6.00
JPMorgan 5.85 5.85 6.60 6.20
Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 5.60 6.90 6.61 6.38
Morgan Stanley - - - -
RBC Capital Markets 5.58 6.12 6.60 6.20
Standard Chartered Bank 5.31 5.85 6.64 6.36
UBS - - 6.55 6.20
United Overseas Bank 5.85 - 6.77 -
Wing Hang Bank 5.56 - 6.65 -
SummaryMinimum 5.30 5.31 6.40 6.00
Maximum 5.85 6.90 6.78 6.57
Median 5.58 5.94 6.62 6.28
Consensus 5.55 5.95 6.61 6.31History30 days ago 5.54 5.99 6.66 6.38
60 days ago 5.61 5.95 6.64 6.36
90 days ago 5.66 6.01 6.64 6.36
Interest Rate Exchange Rate% CNY per USD
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-5
0
5
10
15
1995 2000 2005 2010
China
Asia (ex Japan)
0
600
1,200
1,800
2,400
1995 2000 2005 2010
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
1995 2000 2005 2010
China
Asia (ex Japan)
5
10
15
20
25
30
1995 2000 2005 2010
China
Asia (ex Japan)
0
15
30
45
60
1995 2000 2005 2010
China
Asia (ex Japan)
250
300
350
400
450
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
20102011
External Sector | Current Account, Trade and International Reserves
34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
33 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
36 | External Debt | % of GDP35 | Exports | annual variation in %
32 | Trade Balance | USD billion31 | Current Account | % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011Allianz 210 204 150 130 1,550 1,730 1,400 1,600 2,650 2,900
ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 267 301 200 208 1,346 1,556 1,146 1,348 2,685 2,861
Capital Economics 320 380 220 - 1,680 - 1,460 - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 290 309 173 191 1,547 1,771 1,374 1,581 2,650 2,975
Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - - - - - - - - -
Credit Suisse 321 334 230 245 1,495 1,630 1,265 1,385 - -
Daiwa Capital Markets 139 175 92 76 1,370 1,507 1,278 1,431 2,635 2,859
DBS Bank 245 210 144 109 1,622 1,947 1,478 1,838 2,550 2,700
Deutsche Bank 227 190 167 135 1,562 1,781 1,395 1,646 2,550 2,850
Goldman Sachs 321 - - - - - - - - -
Hang Seng Bank - - 158 121 1,526 1,831 1,368 1,710 - -
HSBC 250 260 175 180 1,502 1,720 1,327 1,540 2,550 2,700
ING 228 231 101 93 1,467 1,746 1,366 1,653 2,700 2,900
JPMorgan 278 276 269 273 1,519 1,756 1,250 1,484 2,766 3,146
Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. - - - - - - - - - -
Morgan Stanley 343 304 - - - - - - - -
RBC Capital Markets 338 326 - - - - - - - -
Standard Chartered Bank 331 303 - - - - - - - -UBS 321 361 182 204 1,490 1,669 1,308 1,465 2,800 3,100
United Overseas Bank 200 220 - - - - - - - -
Wing Hang Bank - - 200 - 1,400 - 1,200 - - -
SummaryMinimum 175 175 92 76 1,346 1,507 1,146 1,348 2,550 2,700
Maximum 380 380 269 273 1,680 1,947 1,478 1,838 2,800 3,146
Median 288 288 174 157 1,510 1,738 1,347 1,560 2,650 2,881
Consensus 274 274 176 164 1,505 1,720 1,330 1,557 2,654 2,899History30 days ago 272 273 174 161 1,511 1,723 1,337 1,562 2,654 2,899
60 days ago 267 268 161 147 1,492 1,702 1,330 1,555 2,690 2,956
90 days ago 264 268 159 144 1,490 1,699 1,331 1,555 2,690 2,956
Int. ReservesUSD bnUSD bn USD bn
Exports ImportsCurrent Account Trade BalanceUSD bn USD bn
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FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia
India
37%
Other
10%
Indonesia
7%
Malaysia
1%Korea
2%
China
43%
India
15%
Other
14%
Malaysia
2%Korea
10%
China
53%
Indonesia6%
OtherAsia
15%
Other
25%Hong
Kong &
Macao14%
USA18%
Japan8%
EU-2720%
Other
45%OtherAsia22%
Hong
Kong &Macao
3%
USA
7%
Japan
12%
EU-2711%
Manufactur
es
93%
Agricultural
products
3%
Fuels and
mining
products
4%
Manufact
ures
65%
Fuel and
mining
products28%
Agricultural
products
8%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
WeaknessesStrengths
Political Data
Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
ImportsExports
Exports Imports
Trade Structure
Primary markets | share in %
Primary products | share in %
Economic StructureEconomic Infrastructure
General Data China in the Region
Fact Sheet
Lack of comprehensive infra-structure
Nascent legal system
Financial system vulnerability
Huge domestic market
Large workforce
Competitive labour costs
Official name: People's Republic of China
Capital: Beijing (13.3 m)
Other cities: Shanghai (19.2 m)
Chengdu (11.0 m)
Chongqing (5.2 m)
Area (km2): 9,596,960
Population (million, 2009 est.): 1,338
Pop. density (per km2, 2009 est.): 139
Pop. growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 0.7
Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 73.5
Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 9.1
Language: Mandarin Chinese and other
Measures: Metric & local systems
Time: 8 hours ahead of GMT
Prime Minister: Hu Jintao
Last elections: 15 March 2008
Next elections: March 2013
Chairman of the PBOC: Zhou Xiaochuan
Telecommunication (2009)
Telephones - m ain lines (per 100 inhabitants ): 23.3Telephones - m obile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 55.5
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 28.5
Broadband Subs cribers (per 100 inhabitants): 7.7
Energy (2007) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 70,796
Prim ary Energy Cons um ption (trillion Btu): 77,808
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 3,041
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 2,835
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,912
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 7,582
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 6,247
Transportation (2009) Airports: 482
Railways (km): 77,834
Roadways (km): 3,583,715
Waterways (km): 110,000
Chief Ports: Shanghai, Canton, Ningbo
Agency Rating OutlookMoodys: A1 Positive
S&P: A+ Stable
Fitch Ratings: A+ Stable
Services38%
Agriculture
16%
Industry46%
1999
Industry
48%
Agricultur
e
11%
Services41%
2009
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REAL SECTOR | Retail sales continue to grow at a strong pace in August
In August, retail sales rose 14.7% over the same moth last year in volume
terms. The figure was down from the revised 16.2% increase recorded in
July (previously reported +16.0%), but overshot market expectations, which
had seen retail sales slowing to 13.2%. Augusts reading represented the
seventh consecutive month of double-digit growth, thus, reflecting a strong
consumer sentiment.
The August expansion was broad-based. That said, the main drivers behind
the rise were sales of consumer durable goods, which increased by 28.0%
year-on-year, as well as jewellery, watches and valuable gifts, which rose
29.6%.
Seasonally adjusted figures corroborate the strong growth suggested by theannual data, as retail sales increased 2.2% in the three-month period ending
in August, compared to the previous period ending in May. Moreover, the trend
continues to point up, as annual average growth in retail sales increased
from 11.2% in July to 12.6% in August.
A government spokesman stated that, looking ahead, positive developments
in the labour market and income prospects, together with robust inbound
tourism should continue to support retail businesses in the near term.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy will expand 5.9%
this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last months forecast. For
2011, the panel expects the economy to expand 4.5%.
Hong KongOutlook improves
Joan Enric DomeneEconomist
Robust domestic demand due to improving labour market conditions
continues to fuel economic growth. Recent data from the retail sector
corroborate this notion, as retail sales rose a strong 14.7% over the
same month last year. Furthermore, in spite of concerns regarding
slowing global demand, exports continue to steam ahead, adding 35.7%
in USD terms in August.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy will expand
5.9% this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last months
forecast. For 2011, the panel expects the economy to expand 4.5%.
Inflation dropped from 3.0% in August to 2.6% in September. However,
the government expects inflation to experience upward pressures in
the coming months. Panellists expect inflation to average 2.7% this
year, which is unchanged from last months projection. In 2011, the
panel expects inflation to rise to 3.0%.
Hong Kong
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14Population (million): 6.7 6.9 7.2
GDP (USD bn): 165 200 264GDP per capita (USD): 24,430 28,791 36,934
GDP growth (%): 4.4 4.0 4.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.4 2.7 0.8
Inflation (%): -2.3 2.0 2.9
Current Account (% of GDP): 7.5 11.6 7.6
External Debt (% of GDP): 188 300 216
-0.9
1.2
8.310.0
11.4
3.2
31.5
17.3
12.4
16.3
11.9
16.214.7
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
%
YoY Annual average
Retail Sales | variation in %
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation in %.Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong and FocusEconomics cal-culations.
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0.7
2.1
0.10.4
0.1
1.0
-0.4
0.4
-0.2
0.1
-1.4
-0.1
0.3
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
%
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
%
Monthly (lef t scale) Annual (r ight scale)
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation moderates in September
In September, consumer prices rose 0.3% over the previous month, which
contrasted the 0.1% drop recorded in August. The increase was the result of
higher prices for food (+0.9% month-on-month), housing (+0.5% mom) as
well as clothing and footwear (+1.7% mom), which more than offset lower
prices for electricity, gas and water (-0.3% mom).
Despite the monthly price increase, annual inflation dropped from 3.0% in
August to 2.6%, undershooting market expectations, which had seen inflation
remaining at 3.0%. The decline in inflation was mainly due to the lower
comparison base in August last year when the one-off electricity subsidy was
paid by the government. However, annual average inflation inched up from
1.9% in August to 2.0%.
A government spokesman stated that consumer prices are subject to upward
pressures, as wages and rentals continue to rise in tandem with the
economic recovery. Higher import prices due to rising global food prices and
a weaker US dollar, owing to the USD-HKD peg, may further fuel inflation.
The government sees inflation averaging 2.3% this year.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate inflation to average 2.7% this year,
which is unchanged from last months forecast. For 2011, the panel expects
annual average inflation to rise further to 3.0%.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong.
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Economic Indicators | 2005 - 2014
Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Real Sector Population (million) 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2
GDP per capita (USD) 25,999 27,488 29,783 30,694 29,991 32,334 34,503 36,814 39,249 41,769
GDP (USD bn) 178 190 207 215 211 229 245 263 282 302
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) 7.1 7.0 6.4 2.2 -2.8 5.9 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.0 5.9 8.5 2.4 -0.4 5.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 4.1 7.1 3.4 0.8 -1.8 9.9 8.1 5.0 4.9 5.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 2.5 2.2 -1.4 -6.7 -8.3 1.7 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.4
Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 5.2 4.4 3.4 4.1 4.9 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.0 4.0 7.7 0.1 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.7 1.8 2.4
Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M1 money in %) -10.3 13.1 25.4 4.7 39.6 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.4 2.3 3.8 2.1 1.3 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) 1.0 2.0 2.0 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 0.7 2.2 3.0 5.6 -1.7 - - - - -
91-day HIBOR (%, eop) 4.23 3.90 3.45 0.95 0.14 0.42 0.93 1.80 2.64 2.97
Stock Market (variation of HSI in %) 4.5 34.2 39.3 -48.3 52.0 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (HKD per USD, eop) 7.75 7.77 7.80 7.75 7.76 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79
Exchange Rate (HKD per USD, average) 7.78 7.77 7.80 7.79 7.75 7.78 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79
External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 11.4 12.1 12.3 13.6 8.7 8.4 8.3 7.8 7.6 5.9Current Account Balance (USD bn) 20.2 22.9 25.5 29.3 18.3 19.2 20.3 20.6 21.6 17.7
Trade Balance (USD bn) -7.6 -14.0 -19.7 -23.1 -26.9 -37.8 -46.9 -44.4 -42.4 -53.8
Exports (USD bn) 290 318 346 365 322 377 414 438 473 512
Imports (USD bn) 297 332 366 388 349 414 461 484 515 558
Exports (annual variation in %) 11.2 9.7 8.9 5.6 -11.9 17.0 9.8 6.0 7.8 8.4
Imports (annual variation in %) 10.2 11.6 10.2 6.2 -10.2 18.9 11.1 5.1 6.3 8.5
International Reserves (USD bn) 124 133 153 183 256 283 310 311 349 373
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.6 8.8 8.2 8.1 7.7 8.1 8.0
Quarterly Data Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) -2.4 2.5 8.0 6.5 5.7 4.3 4.1 5.1 4.5 4.1
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) -0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8
91-day HIBOR (%, eop) 0.22 0.14 0.15 0.57 0.33 0.42 0.41 0.46 0.57 0.93
Monthly Data Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 11.4 3.2 31.5 17.3 12.4 16.3 11.9 16.2 14.7 -
Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.2
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.3
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.3 1.0 2.8 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 1.3 3.0 2.6
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-8
-4
0
4
8
12
1995 2000 2005 2010
Hong KongAsia (ex Japan)World
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
Hong KongAsia (ex Japan)World
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
1995 2000 2005 2010
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)
-20
-10
0
10
20
1995 2000 2005 2010
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)
0
2
4
6
8
Jun Sep Dec Mar
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
0
2
4
6
8
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
0
2
4
6
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2010
2011
0
4
8
12
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2010
2011
Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts
5 | Consumption | % variation 6 | Investment | % variation
Real GDP growth in %2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts
General:Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All realsector data are from the Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong(C&SD) and the Treasury of Hong Kong (Treasury). See below for details.Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: C&SD.3 GDP, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last18 months.8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during thelast 18 months.9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: C&SD.11 Consolidated fiscal balance, % of GDP. Source: Treasury.12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during thelast 18 months.13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18months.14 Consolidated fiscal balance, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts
during the last 18 months.
Notes and sources
1 | Real GDP | 1995-2014 | % variation
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011ANZ 5.3 4.3
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 5.8 4.5
Capital Economics 6.5 4.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 5.5 4.7
Core Pacific-Yam aichi 5.5 4.6
Credit Suisse 5.3 4.3
Daiwa Capital Markets 3.5 2.5
DBS Bank 7.0 4.5
Deutsche Bank 6.2 5.0
Goldman Sachs 6.0 5.0
Hang Seng Bank 6.0 4.5
HSBC 5.4 4.7
ING 6.2 5.8
JPMorgan 6.6 4.1
Morgan Stanley 6.0 4.0
Standard Chartered Bank 6.0 5.0
UBS 6.0 4.3
United Overseas Bank 5.5 4.5
Wing Hang Bank 7.0 -SummaryMinimum 3.5 2.5
Maximum 7.0 5.8
Median 6.0 4.5
Consensus 5.9 4.5History30 days ago 5.7 4.5
60 days ago 5.6 4.5
90 days ago 5.4 4.6
Additional ForecastsGovernment (Sep. 2010) 5.0-6.0 -
IMF(Oct. 2010) 6.0 4.7
ADB (Sep. 2010) 5.8 4.3
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-6
-3
0
3
6
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
20102011
3
4
5
6
7
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
20102011
-4
-2
0
2
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
20102011
-20
-10
0
10
20
1995 2000 2005 2010
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)
2
4
6
8
1995 2000 2005 2010
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)-10
-5
0
5
10
1995 2000 2005 2010
Hong KongAsia (ex Japan)World
Real Sector | Additional forecasts
14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts
9 | Industry | % variation
13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst
10 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011ANZ - - - - - - - -
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 5.6 5.3 10.5 9.8 4.0 3.5 - -
Capital Economics 5.5 4.4 6.5 4.0 - - -1.0 0.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.5 3.7 9.3 4.5 4.5 4.1 0.5 1.0
Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - - - 4.2 4.0 - -Credit Suisse 4.8 4.2 8.1 6.9 4.0 3.8 -1.4 -0.7
Daiwa Capital Markets 4.6 3.7 12.7 12.0 - - -2.1 -1.6
DBS Bank 6.3 4.6 14.1 9.8 4.0 3.5 - -
Deutsche Bank 6.8 4.6 9.5 15.9 4.5 4.0 2.3 1.9
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - -
Hang Seng Bank 5.2 4.0 13.0 7.8 4.0 4.0 - -
HSBC 5.0 4.0 9.0 7.0 4.0 4.2 -1.4 -0.3
ING 4.7 5.5 7.6 7.1 4.9 4.5 - -
JPMorgan - - - - - - -1.5 -0.7
Morgan Stanley 4.8 4.0 9.7 5.7 - - - -
Standard Chartered Bank - - - - - - - -
UBS 5.2 4.5 9.4 6.6 - - -1.4 -1.5
United Overseas Bank - - - - 4.2 3.8 0.8 0.5
Wing Hang Bank 8.0 - 9.9 - - - - -
SummaryMinimum 4.5 3.7 6.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 -2.1 -1.6
Maximum 8.0 5.5 14.1 15.9 4.9 4.5 2.3 1.9
Median 5.2 4.3 9.5 7.1 4.1 4.0 -1.4 -0.3
Consensus 5.5 4.4 9.9 8.1 4.2 3.9 -0.6 -0.2History30 days ago 5.3 4.3 9.5 8.1 4.4 4.0 -0.5 -0.2
60 days ago 5.1 4.3 9.1 7.5 4.4 4.0 -0.5 -0.1
90 days ago 5.2 4.4 8.4 6.8 4.4 4.0 -0.5 -0.1
Consumption% variation
Investment% variation
Fiscal Balance% of GDP% of active pop.
Unemployment
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-5
0
5
10
15
1995 2000 2005 2010
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)
-3
0
3
6
9
Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)
-3
0
3
6
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
MaximumConsensusMinimum
0
3
6
9
Jun Sep Dec Mar