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Fomc 20030325 Material

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Appendix 1: Materials used by Messrs. Kos and Reinhart March 25, 2003 10 of 29
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Page 1: Fomc 20030325 Material

Appendix 1: Materials used by Messrs. Kos and Reinhart

March 25, 2003 10 of 29

Page 2: Fomc 20030325 Material

Exhibit 1Treasury Securities Market

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.2

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9Percent Percent

03/13 03/14 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/21 03/24

8:00 Deadline

Two- and Ten-year Treasury Yields

Note. Treasury yield shown is that of the on-the-run issue.

Five-minute intervals

Two-year(right scale)

Ten-year(left scale)

1/4 2 5 10 301

2

3

4

5

6Percent

Treasury Yield Curve

March 19, 2003 4:00 pm

March 24, 2003 4:00 pm

Maturity in YearsJan. Feb. Mar.

2003

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2Percent

Ten-year TIPS Yield

+

Daily

+ denotes today’s observation (taken at approximately 4:45 pm).

Selected Treasury Yields

Nominal

Indexed

4. Ten-year

1. Two-year

2. Five-year

3. Ten-year

1.66

2.94

3.97

1.72

2.97

3.98

-6

-3

-1

2.12 2.10 2

Today3/24/03*

(1)

Wednesday3/19/03

(2)Change(1)-(2)

-basis points-

-basis points-

* Quotes taken at approximately 4:00 pm.

March 25, 2003 11 of 29

Page 3: Fomc 20030325 Material

Exhibit 2Equity Market

100

102

104

106

108

110

112 3/13/03 9:30 am = 100

03/13 03/14 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/21 03/24

Major Stock Indexes

Five-minute intervals

NasdaqWilshire 5000

S&P 500

33

34

35

36

37

38

39 Percent

03/13 03/14 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/21 03/24

S&P 100 Implied Volatility (VIX)

Five-minute intervals

Selected Equity Market Quotes

Major Indexes

Option-Implied Volatility

4. S&P 100 (VIX)

1. Wilshire 5000

2. S&P 500

3. Nasdaq

8180.39

864.36

1370.23

8258.42

874.02

1397.08

-0.9

-1.1

-1.9

34.96 35.74 -0.78

Today3/24/03*

(1)

Wednesday3/19/03

(2)Change(1)-(2)

-percent-

-percentage points-

* Quotes taken at approximately 4:00 pm.

March 25, 2003 12 of 29

Page 4: Fomc 20030325 Material

Exhibit 3Monetary Policy Expectations

+ denotes today’s observation (taken at approximately 4:00 pm).

1.15

1.16

1.17

1.18

1.19

1.20

1.21

1.22

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6 Percent

03/13 03/14 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/21 03/24

Interest Rate Futures

Five-minute intervals

Apr. 2003 Fed FundsFutures (left scale)

Mar. 2004 EurodollarFutures (right scale)

Mar. July Nov. Mar. July Nov. Mar. July2003 2004 2005

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0Percent

March 24, 2003 3:30 pm

March 19, 2003 3:30 pm

Expected Federal Funds Rates*

*Estimates from federal funds and eurodollar futuresFeb. Mar.

2003

20

30

40

50

60PercentShort-term Eurodollar Implied Volatility*

+

Daily

*Contract with approximately 3 months to expiration.

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120 Percent

03/13 03/14 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/21 03/24

Probability of 1.00% target as opposed to 1.25% target*

*Based on May 2003 federal funds futures contract.

Five-minute intervals

March 25, 2003 13 of 29

Page 5: Fomc 20030325 Material

Exhibit 4Selected Credit Market Indicators

+ denotes today’s observation (taken at approximately 4:00 pm).

41

42

43

44

45

46

47 Basis Points

03/13 03/14 03/17 03/18 03/19 03/20 03/21 03/24

Ten-year Swap Spread

Five-minute intervals

Stock Prices and Credit Default Swap Premia for Selected Financial Intermediaries

1. Bank of America

2. Citigroup

3. Goldman Sachs

4. Lehman Brothers

5. Merrill Lynch

68.82

35.72

70.01

58.20

36.30

69.50

35.46

70.27

59.69

36.74

-1.0

0.7

-0.4

-2.5

-1.2

31.0

32.0

55.0

50.0

57.0

31.0

34.0

56.8

54.2

56.8

0.0

-2.0

-1.8

-4.2

0.2

Stock Prices CDS PremiaToday

3/24/03*(1)

Wednesday3/19/03

(2)Change(1)-(2)

Today3/24/03*

(3)

Wednesday3/19/03

(4)Change(3)-(4)

-percent- -basis points-

* Quotes taken at approximately 4:00 pm.

Feb. Mar.

2003

26

27

28

29

30

31

32PercentSwaption Implied Volatility (Ten-year Swap Rate)

Three-months ahead

One-year ahead+

+

Daily

March 25, 2003 14 of 29

Page 6: Fomc 20030325 Material

Exhibit 5Other Indicators of Market Stress

+ denotes today’s observation (taken at approximately 4:00 pm).

Foreign Exchange Rates

Dollar/Euro

Yen/Dollar

Dollar/Pound

Swiss Franc/Dollar

1.0631

120.8350

1.5734

1.3859

1.0559

120.4700

1.5643

1.3943

0.7

0.3

0.6

-0.6

Today3/24/03*

(1)

Wednesday3/19/03

(2)Change(1)-(2)

-percent-

* Quotes taken at approximately 4:00 pm.

Feb. Mar.2003

28

30

32

34

36

38

40US $

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Spot Price

+

Daily

Feb. Mar.2003

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40US $

Apr. 2003

Jun. 2003

Dec. 2003

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures Prices

++

+

Daily

Feb. Mar.

2003

330

340

350

360

370

380

390US $Gold Spot Price

+

Daily

March 25, 2003 15 of 29

Page 7: Fomc 20030325 Material

Appendix 2: Material used by Ms. Johnson

March 25, 2003 16 of 29

Page 8: Fomc 20030325 Material

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CLASS II-FOMC

Recent Developments in International Financial Markets

March 24, 2003

March 25, 2003 17 of 29

Page 9: Fomc 20030325 Material

Chart 1 03-24-03

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

Jan Feb Mar

Daily

FOMC Mar 12 FOMC

Indexes of Trade-Weighted Value of the Dollar

Major currencies

Other importanttrading partners

Broad

Change since 3/12Major curr.BroadOITP

2.3% 1.1% -0.3%

Index, March 12, 2003 = 100

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

Jan Feb Mar

Daily

FOMC Mar 12 FOMC

Selected Exchange Rates(Foreign currency per dollar)

Yen

Euro

Sterling

Canadian dollar

Swiss franc

Change since 3/12Can. dollarSwiss francEuroYenSterling

0.5% 4.0% 3.6% 3.0% 2.4%

Index, March 12, 2003 = 100

March 25, 2003 18 of 29

Page 10: Fomc 20030325 Material

Chart 2 03-24-03

Selected Yield Curves

0

1

2

3

4

3-Month Eurocurrency Futures Rates

J S D M J S D M2003 2004 2005

March 24, 2003March 17, 2003March 12, 2003

YenPercent

2

3

4

5

6

J S D M J S D M2003 2004 2005

March 24, 2003March 17, 2003March 12, 2003

EuroPercent

2

3

4

5

6

J S D M J S D M2003 2004 2005

SterlingPercent

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

J S D M J S D M2003 2004 2005

DollarPercent

2004 2006 2008 2010 20120

1

2

3

4

1-Year Forward Rates Derived From Swaps

March 24, 2003March 17, 2003March 12, 2003

YenPercent

2004 2006 2008 2010 20122

3

4

5

6

EuroPercent

2004 2006 2008 2010 20122

3

4

5

6

SterlingPercent

2004 2006 2008 2010 20121

2

3

4

5

6

7

DollarPercent

March 25, 2003 19 of 29

Page 11: Fomc 20030325 Material

Chart 3 03-24-03

Stock Market Indexes

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Jan Feb Mar

(Ratio scale, Index, March 12, 2003 = 100, daily data)

FOMC Mar 12 FOMC

DJ Euro

DJ Euro Tech

DJ Euro Bank

Change since 3/12 DJ EuroDJ Euro TechDJ Euro Bank

12.6% 16.1% 13.3%

Euro Area

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Jan Feb Mar

FOMC Mar 12 FOMC

FTSE-350 FTSE-techMark

FTSE-Bank

Change since 3/12FTSE-350FTSE-TechFTSE-Bank

12.9% 7.7%

14.0%

United Kingdom

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Jan Feb Mar

FOMC Mar 12 FOMC

TOPIX

TOPIX-EM

TOPIX-Bank

Change since 3/12TOPIXTOPIX-EMTOPIX-Bank

6.3% 8.8% 7.3%

Japan

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Jan Feb Mar

FOMC Mar 12 FOMC

S&P 500

NASDAQ

S&P Banks

Change since 3/12S&P 500NASDAQS&P Bank

7.3% 7.0%

11.6%

memo: United States

March 25, 2003 20 of 29

Page 12: Fomc 20030325 Material

Chart 4 03-24-03

Crude Oil Futures Prices

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

Jan Feb Mar

Daily

WTI May

Brent May

WTI May -$7.63Brent May -$6.91

Change since 3/12

March 12 FOMC FOMC

$/barrel

Implied Distributions from Oil Futures OptionsMarch 21, 2003

May 2003 WTI

Dec 2003 WTI

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

F F

$/barrel

March 25, 2003 21 of 29

Page 13: Fomc 20030325 Material

Appendix 3: Materials used by Mr. Stockton

March 25, 2003 22 of 29

Page 14: Fomc 20030325 Material

March 25, 2003

NONFINANCIALDEVELOPMENTS

March 25, 2003 23 of 29

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March 25, 2003 24 of 29

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March 25, 2003 25 of 29

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March 25, 2003 26 of 29

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March 25, 2003 27 of 29

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March 25, 2003 28 of 29

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March 25, 2003 29 of 29


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