FOOD SECURITY AND GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

Mike BrklacichMike Brklacich

Carleton University, CanadaCarleton University, Canada

Inter-American Institute for Global Inter-American Institute for Global Environment Change, BrazilEnvironment Change, Brazil

[next]

OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

Food Security Research ThemesFood Security Research Themes Climatic Change & Agriculture: Climatic Change & Agriculture:

Two Generations of ResearchTwo Generations of Research Food Security & Global Environmental Food Security & Global Environmental

Change: Bridging the GapChange: Bridging the Gap

FOOD SECURITY DEFINEDFOOD SECURITY DEFINED

“ “ People having access to sufficient People having access to sufficient stocks and supplies of food to provide a stocks and supplies of food to provide a

nutritionally adequate diet”nutritionally adequate diet”

FOOD SECURITY DIMENSIONSFOOD SECURITY DIMENSIONS

FoodFood

SupplySupply

SpatialSpatial

ScalesScales

Global – Global –

NationalNational

MajorMajor

IssuesIssues

Food supplyFood supply

Stable mktsStable mkts

MajorMajor

ViewsViews

Adequate foodAdequate food

Self-sufficiencySelf-sufficiency

FOOD SECURITY DIMENSIONSFOOD SECURITY DIMENSIONS

FoodFood

SupplySupply

FoodFood

EntitlementEntitlement

SpatialSpatial

ScalesScales

Global – Global –

NationalNational

National –National –

CommunityCommunity

MajorMajor

IssuesIssues

Food supplyFood supply

Stable mktsStable mkts

Food accessFood access

NutritionNutrition

MajorMajor

ViewsViews

Adequate foodAdequate food

Self-sufficiencySelf-sufficiency

Food rightsFood rights

Economic accessEconomic access

FOOD SECURITY DIMENSIONSFOOD SECURITY DIMENSIONS

FoodFood

SupplySupply

FoodFood

EntitlementEntitlement

Food & Food & Human Human SecuritySecurity

SpatialSpatial

ScalesScales

Global – Global –

NationalNational

National –National –

CommunityCommunity

Community - Community - HouseholdHousehold

MajorMajor

IssuesIssues

Food supplyFood supply

Stable mktsStable mkts

Food accessFood access

NutritionNutrition

Coping mech.Coping mech.

Food choiceFood choice

MajorMajor

ViewsViews

Adequate foodAdequate food

Self-sufficiencySelf-sufficiency

Food rightsFood rights

Economic accessEconomic access

LivelihoodsLivelihoods

Household Household viabilityviability

KEY ATTRIBUTES OF FOOD SECURITYKEY ATTRIBUTES OF FOOD SECURITY

Multiple dimensionsMultiple dimensions Multiple scalesMultiple scales Beyond securing food, securing human Beyond securing food, securing human

livelihoodslivelihoods Environmental variability consideredEnvironmental variability considered Environmental change (esp GEC) not a Environmental change (esp GEC) not a

major focus major focus

ADDING GEC TO THE FOOD ADDING GEC TO THE FOOD SECURITY AGENDASECURITY AGENDA

““Adding GEC to the FS research agenda will Adding GEC to the FS research agenda will require an understanding and assessment of require an understanding and assessment of

the socio-economic context within which food the socio-economic context within which food systems are situated as well as GEC processes systems are situated as well as GEC processes

and impacts”and impacts”

CLIMATIC CHANGE & AGRICULTURE :CLIMATIC CHANGE & AGRICULTURE :TWO GENERATIONS OF RESEARCHTWO GENERATIONS OF RESEARCH

Macro-Climatic Change Scenarios

First-Order Impacts:(Regional Agro-climatic Properties)

Second-Order Impacts:(Agric. Land Suitability and Crop

Yields)

Higher-Order Impacts:(Farm and Regional Production)

FIRST GENERATION STUDIES:FIRST GENERATION STUDIES:IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGEIMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE

Macro-Climatic Change Scenarios

Impacts

Adaptation Nonresponse Mitigation

SECOND GENERATION STUDIES:SECOND GENERATION STUDIES:RESPONSES TO CLIMATIC CHANGERESPONSES TO CLIMATIC CHANGE

IIASA-FAO STUDYIIASA-FAO STUDY

Source: Fisher et al 2001

Source: Fisher et al 2001

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CEREAL YIELDSCEREAL YIELDS

Source: Fisher et al 2001

Scenario:HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s Country-level climate change impacts on rain-fed cereal production potential:

Source: Fisher et al 2001

11STST & 2 & 2NDND GENERATION CLIMATIC GENERATION CLIMATIC CHANGE AGRICULTURE STUDIESCHANGE AGRICULTURE STUDIES

RESEARCH ATTRIBUTESRESEARCH ATTRIBUTES Single stressorSingle stressor Slow, incremental GECSlow, incremental GEC Single scaleSingle scale Limited socio-economic changeLimited socio-economic change Vulnerability as a GEC residualVulnerability as a GEC residual

11STST & 2 & 2NDND GENERATION CLIMATIC GENERATION CLIMATIC CHANGE AGRICULTURE STUDIESCHANGE AGRICULTURE STUDIES

CONTRIBUTIONS TO FOOD SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS TO FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENTSASSESSMENTS

Effective assessment of food supply issuesEffective assessment of food supply issues Less able to address food entitlement, food Less able to address food entitlement, food

access and human livelihood perspectivesaccess and human livelihood perspectives

CLIMATIC CHANGE - AGRICULTURECLIMATIC CHANGE - AGRICULTURE & FOOD SECURITY RESEARCH: & FOOD SECURITY RESEARCH:

BRIDGING THE GAP BRIDGING THE GAP

INTEGRATING FOOD SECURITY & INTEGRATING FOOD SECURITY & CLIMATIC CHANGECLIMATIC CHANGE

Broaden Climatic Change Agriculture ContextBroaden Climatic Change Agriculture Context

Multiple stressorsMultiple stressors

Comprehensive scenariosComprehensive scenarios Vulnerability as a Food System Property not a GEC Vulnerability as a Food System Property not a GEC

ResidualResidual Understanding VulnerabilityUnderstanding Vulnerability

Who & what & why?Who & what & why?

Measuring differential vulnerabilityMeasuring differential vulnerability

INTEGRATING FOOD SECURITY & INTEGRATING FOOD SECURITY & CLIMATIC CHANGECLIMATIC CHANGE cont’dcont’d

GEC & Scale IssuesGEC & Scale Issues

Fast vs slow onsetFast vs slow onset

Scale integrationScale integration Science – Policy LinkagesScience – Policy Linkages

Interventions to reduce food system Interventions to reduce food system vulnerability/improve security vulnerability/improve security

Improve adaptive capacity - GEC Improve adaptive capacity - GEC mitigation couplingmitigation coupling

33RDRD GENERATION STUDIES: GENERATION STUDIES:FOOD SYTEM VULNERABILITY-FOOD SYTEM VULNERABILITY-

SECURITY FOCUSSECURITY FOCUS

GUIDING FACTORSGUIDING FACTORS Likelihood an individual or group will be Likelihood an individual or group will be

exposed to and impacted (positively or exposed to and impacted (positively or negatively) by GECnegatively) by GEC

Capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, Capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, recover from and if necessary adapt from recover from and if necessary adapt from GEC impactsGEC impacts

BUILDING A FRAMEWORK TO LINK BUILDING A FRAMEWORK TO LINK CLIMATIC CHANGE & FOOD SECURITYCLIMATIC CHANGE & FOOD SECURITY

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

Change in freq & mag of threats

GEC

Exposure

FOOD SYSTEM

SENSITIVITIES

BUILDING A FRAMEWORK TO LINK BUILDING A FRAMEWORK TO LINK CLIMATIC CHANGE & FOOD SECURITYCLIMATIC CHANGE & FOOD SECURITY

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

Change in freq & mag of threats

GEC

Exposure

FOOD SYSTEM VULNERABILITY

/SECURITY

Capacity to cope with &

adapt to GEC

SOCIETAL CHANGE

Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc

CONCLUDING POINTSCONCLUDING POINTS

Food Security DimensionsFood Security Dimensions

Supply, access & livelihoodSupply, access & livelihood Climatic Change Agriculture & Food SecurityClimatic Change Agriculture & Food Security

Supply focus to dateSupply focus to date Climatic Change Agriculture & Food Security Climatic Change Agriculture & Food Security

IntegrationIntegration

Explicit consideration of food systemExplicit consideration of food systemvulnerability and securityvulnerability and security