Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit

Somalia

Post Gu 2011

17th August 2011

Gedo Region

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

Information for Better Livelihoods

Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

Normal access in all districts and livelihoods except pockets in Elwaq

and Garbaharey districts, which are the

frontline of the two warring parties

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

• 2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Southern agropastoral and Gedo-Bay agropastoral high potential) Southern agro-pastoral are more pastoral than agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of

livestock & livestock products, self-employment (fodder and bush products sales); main sources of food: purchase and own production

Gedo-Bay agropastoral are more agriculturalists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; main sources of food: own crop production and purchases.

• Riverine Livelihood (Juba riverine pump irrigation) are agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of crops and labour; main sources of food: purchase and own crop production.

Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income

• 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southern Inland and Dawa Pastoralists) Primary sources of income of poor: sale of

livestock & livestock products Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and

own production Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle

and sheep/goat

Overall statement:

The overall performance of the season was erratic and below normal in most parts of the region.

•Start of Season: started on time (2nd dekad of April in most southern parts of the region and Luq district in the north.

•Temporal and Spatial Distribution: 2-3 days of rain were received in most parts of the region with poor intensity and moderate distribution.

•Poor Rains: all livelihoods in Gedo have received poor rains between 2nd dekad of April and 3rd dekad of May.

•No Rains: Localized areas of Garbaharey and Belethawa districts have received no rains. Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term

mean)

ClimateGu 2011 Seasonal Performance

ClimateVegetation Conditions

Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

Civil Security Situation:

• Increased political confrontation and military clashes over the last 6 months

• Increased number of military bases and road blocks

Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:

• Increased population displacement towards refugees camps in Kenya and Ethiopia

• Imposed restrictions on trade movement in Gedo

• Asset losses, e.g. burning houses and vehicles.

• Limited pastoral mobility and restricted access to pasture and water points.

Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

Civil Insecurity

Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates

Districts

Gu 2011 Production in MT

Total Cereal

Gu 2011 as % of Gu

2010

Gu 2011 as % of Gu

PWA(1995-2010)

Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average

(2006-2010)Maize Sorghum

Baardheere 401 0 401 9% 9% 19%

Belet Xaawo 6 0 6 4% 3% 15%

Ceel Waaq 0 0 0 0% 0% 0%

Dolow 91 0 91 24% 36% 89%

Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo

118 0 118 18% 33% 63%

Luuq 77 0 77 11% 22% 41%

Gedo Gu 2011 Total

693 0 693 11% 13% 26%

AgricultureTrends in Regional Gu Cereal Production Trends

Gu Cereal Production

Trends (1995 – 2011)

Annual Cereal Production

Trends (1995 – 2011)

Agriculture Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates

Districts Livelihood Zone

Tomato Watermelon Cowpea Sesame Onion

Total (Mt)

Production (Mt)

Production (Mt)

Production (Mt)

Production (Mt)

Production (Mt)

Bardere Riverine 25 10 40 0 600 675

Garbaharey Riverine 10 5 6 0 240 261

Luuq Riverine 0 0 15 0 280 295

Beled haawo Riverine 15 0 2 0 0 17

Dolow Riverine 0 4 0 300 304

Total region Riverine 50 15 67 0 1,420 1,552

Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos

Failed sorghum production. Tubaako, Baardera, July 2011

Complete crop failure. Habadeer, Baardera, July 2011

Harvested palm leaves Surguduud, Dolo, July 2011

Nursery stage onion crop. Taaganey, Luuq, July 2011

Agriculture

Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow

AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices

Regional Trend in

Sorghum Prices

(S.Gedo - Bardhere)

Regional Trend in

Sorghum Prices

(N.Gedo - Luuq)

AgricultureRegional Trends in Daily Labour Wages

Regional Trend in

Daily Labour Rate (Bardhere)

Regional Trend in

Daily Labour rate (Luuq)

Factors Influencing Wage Labour:

• South Gedo: High labour in-migration into riverine areas for cash crop activities, resulting in increased competition and reducing wage rates.

• North Gedo: wage rates slightly increased in July due to low supply of labour resulting from escalated conflict in Luuq district

AgricultureRegional Trends in Terms of Trade

Regional Trend in

Daily labor rate /Sorghum

(Bardhere)

Regional Trend in

Daily Labor Rate/Sorghum

(Luuq)

Contributing Factors :

• In South: decline of labour wage rate and increased sorghum price reducing the ToT.

• Northern districts: Slight increase of labour wage rate, hence slight increase in the ToT.

• Below average rangeland conditions across the region

• Average water conditions, except in catchment area of Elwaq and Belethawa.

• Poor livestock body condition for cattle and goats and average for camel.

• Abnormal migration: Most of the camel migrated to Juba, while cattle migrated to Somali Region of Ethiopia

LivestockRangeland Conditions, Water and

Livestock Migration Gu 2011

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Region Livelihoods Conception (Gu ’11)

Calving/kidding (Gu ‘11)

Milk production (Gu ‘11)

Expected calving/ kidding Jul – Dec ‘11

Trends in Herd Size Projected in (Dec ‘11)

Gedo Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: low

Cattle: noneSh/goat: low

Camel: lowCattle: noneSh/goat: none

very low

Camel: lowCattle: noneSh/goat: low

Camel: decreasing trend( Below Baseline)Cattle: decreased (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline)

Dawo pastoral

Camel: low Cattle: noneSh/goat: low

Camel: lowCattle/sh/goat: none

very low

Camel: lowCattle: noneSh/goat: low

Camel: decreased (Below Baseline)Cattle: decreased (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline)

Southern Agro-pastoral

Camel: low Cattle: noneSh/goat: low

Camel: lowCattle/Sh/goat: none

very low

Camel: lowCattle: noneSh/goat: low

Camel: decreased (Below Baseline)Cattle: decreased (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline)

MarketsLivestock Prices

LivestockRegional Trends in Terms of Trade

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade between local goat/red sorghum

(Bardhere)

Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices

(Luuq)

LivestockGu 2011 Assessment Photos

Poor camel condition .Garsaal, Ceelwaaq, Gedo, July 2011.

Early migration camel to Juba. Irida , Belethawa, Gedo, July 2011.

Poor water availability. Haadfuul Belethawa, Gedo, July 2011.

Cattle hand fed. Sarinley, Baardera, Gedo, July 2011.

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices

Prices of most of the import commodities increasing (last six months)

Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices:

•Increasing global prices

• Restricted trade movements due to conflicts.

• Increased transport costs between Mogadishu and Gedo due to increased taxation, road blocks and fuel prices

Markets

Region Nutrition Surveys (July 11)

Rapid MUAC Screening (%

<12.5cm %%<11.5cm)

Health Information

System

TFC/OTP/SFC

Other relevant information – Key driving

factors

Summary of analysis and change from Deyr

’10/11

Gedo

Gedo PastoralGAM =24.7 (21.0 – 28.8) SAM = 7.1 (5.2- 9.7) (FSNAU & partners, Junly’11 R=1)

Gedo RiverineGAM = 48.1 (38.6 – 57.8) and SAM = 25.2 (18.9- 32.9) (FSNAU & partners, July ‘11, R=1)

Gedo Agro-pastoralGAM = 51.3 (41.0- 61.5) and SAM= 19.1 (13.6-26.0) (FSNAU & partners, July’11, R=1)

MUAC <12.5 = 24

MUAC <11.5 = 5

High and Increasing number of acutely malnourished children reported in facilities in pastoral and agro-pastoral and riverine livelihoods ( Source: TROCARE, AMA, SRCS , HIRDA HIS Data , Jan-June’11 R=3)

OTP admission show with high and increasing number of severely malnourished children admitted in OTP in the riverine facilities (TROCARE, HIRDA, AMA- Jan-June’11, R=3)

Gedo Pastoral – Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’10/11 and theNutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration

Gedo Riverine: Critical- No change from Deyr’10/11. and the Nutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration

Gedo Agro-pastoral No change from Deyr’10/11 and the Nutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration

NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings

GEDONutrition Situation Estimates

Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011

Aggravating factors: Impact of failed Gu 2011 rains affecting crop and livestock production and resulting in limited access to milk and

poor diet quality in agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones High morbidity (AWD and suspected measles) and poor health seeking behaviors Limited access to safe water, sanitation and health facilities Poor infant and young child feeding practices

Mitigating factors Access of milk and milk products to the pastoral livelihood zone Increased charcoal burning for income to buy food (but with long-term negative impact on the environment) Sale of fodder among the riverine communities generating income for food and non-food items

Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)

GEDOSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation

Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep)

Urban Population:• 75%P in HE; 25%P in AFLC; 25%M in AFLC

Rural Population:• Southern Agropastoral (100% P-HE; 50% M-HE; 50% M- AFLC)• Agropastoral High Potential (50% P- Famine; 50%P - HE; 100% M -HE)• Riverine (100% P – HE; 50% M- HE ;50% M – AFLC)• Southern Inland Pastoral (25% P-HE; 75% P – AFLC)• Dawo Pastoral (25%P - HE; 75%P – AFLC)

Acute Malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorateFood Access: Populations in HE (severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100

kcalppp day) while those in AFLC (lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset Stripping)

Water Access: Populations in HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day - human usage only); in AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping)

Destitution/Displacement: Populations in HE (concentrated; increasing); in AFLC (emerging; diffuse)

Coping: Populations in HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); in AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing

Livelihood Assets: Populations in HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); in AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access

MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation

MAP 1: IPC, April 2011

GEDOMain Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation

Aggravating Factors : 1. Poor Gu 2011 rainfall performance (40-60% of normal) leading to:

Significantly reduced cereal production (13% of PWA) with a complete sorghum failure (riverine maize 13% of PWA, sorghum 0% of PWA)

Absence of cereal stocks due to several consecutive seasons of poor crop production/failure Poor pasture and water access/availability Reduced herd size for all species of livestock, particularly cattle, sheep and goats Decrease of livestock reproduction and low milk production Low livestock prices mainly due to deteriorated body conditions (June 2011 prices: Camel 72%,

cattle 56% and goats 71% of June 2010 levels in Bardera and Luuq markets) Reduced access to saleable animals Increased cereal prices and deteriorated terms of trade 40% (from 10kg to 4kg daily labor rate to

red sorghum) and 24% (from 100kg in June 2010 -24kg of sorghum/goat in June 2011) Abnormal livestock migration and family splitting (towards Juba and Somali Region of Ethiopia)

and reduced milk availability2. Civil insecurity (military skirmishes since March in the districts of Beled Hawa, Luuq, Garbaharey and

Elwak) resulting in displacements and trade disruption from inland to the border markets;

Mitigating Factors : Limited agricultural labour opportunities in the riverine (Dolow , Luuq and Bardhere) High holding of camel although below the baseline levels (77% of BL in SIP) Cereal supply through cross-border trade with Ethiopia (Dolow) and Kenya (Belet Hawa) Improved humanitarian interventions Social support

GedoRural Population in Crisis by District

Gedo - Affected Districts UNDP 2005 Rural Population

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

Deyr2010/11 Gu 2011

Acute Food and

Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Acute Food and Livelihood

Crisis(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)Famine

Baardheere 80,628 9,000 0 11,000 31,000 9,000

Belet Xaawo 42,392 11,000 1,000 10,000 9,000 0

Ceel Waaq 15,437 0 0 3,000 1,000 0Doolow 20,821 5,000 1,000 5,000 5,000 0

Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo 39,771 10,000 1,000 12,000 14,000 0

Luuq 48,027 9,000 1,000 10,000 14,000 0

SUB-TOTAL 247,076 44,000 4,000 51,000 74,000 9,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 48,000 134,000

GedoRural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone

Gedo Region and Affected Livelihood Zones

Estimated Population of

Affected Livelihood Zones

Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE

Deyr 2010/11 GU 2011

Acute Food and Livelihood

Crisis(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Famine

Bay-Bakool Agro-Pastoral 26,607 9,000 0 0 15,000 9,000

Dawa Pastoral 81,654 27,000 0 23,000 13,000 0

Juba Pump Irrigated Riverine 31,236 2,000 0 8,000 19,000 0

Southern Agro-Pastoral 31,751 6,000 4,000 11,000 23,000 0

Southern Inland Pastoral 75,828 0 0 9,000 4,000 0

SUB-TOTAL 247,076 44,000 4,000 51,000 74,000 9,000

TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 48,000 134,000

GedoUrban Population in Crisis

DistrictUNDP 2005

Total Population

UNDP 2005 Urban

Population

Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergenc y (HE)

Total in AFLC or HE as %of

Urban population

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency

(HE)

Total in AFLC or HE as % of

Urban population

Gedo

Baardheere 106,172 25,544 8,000 3,000 43 5,000 8,000 51Belet Xaawo 55,989 13,597 3,000 0 22 3,000 4,000 51Ceel Waaq 19,996 4,559 1,000 0 22 1,000 1,000 44

Doolow 26,495 5,674 1,000 0 18 1,000 2,000 53Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo

57,023 17,252 5,000 2,000 41 3,000 5,000 46

Luuq 62,703 14,676 3,000 0 20 3,000 4,000 48Sub-Total 328,378 81,302 21,000 5,000 32 16,000 24,000 49

The End