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Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: What do we know and what can we do about it? Sohail J. Malik Hina Nazli Asma Shahzad Amina Mehmood December 8, 2014
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Page 1: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: What do we know and

what can we do about it?

Sohail J. Malik

Hina Nazli

Asma Shahzad

Amina Mehmood

December 8, 2014

Page 2: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms
Page 3: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Food Security, Consumption, and Nutrition

Foo

d S

ecu

rity

Availability

Production + Stocks

Income

Imports-exports

Accessibility Prices

Income

Utilization

Consumption

Water, sanitation and Hygiene (WASH)

Nutritional status

Nutritional status

Sustainability Variability in availability, accessibility, utilization Resilience

Poverty

Page 4: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

World Hunger Facts – What do we know?

• About 842 million people in the world do not eat enough to be healthy

(FAO, 2013)

• Most of the world’s undernourished people are still to be found

in Southern Asia, closely followed by sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Asia.

(FAO, 2013)

• A third of all deaths in children under the age of five in developing

countries are linked to under-nutrition. (IGME, 2011)

• In the developing world, one child in four is stunted, meaning that their

physical and mental growth is impaired because of inadequate nutrition.

(The Lancet, 2013)

Page 5: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

The Global Hunger Index GHI=(PUN+CUW+CM)/3 PUN=Under-nutrition CUW=Child underweight CM=Child mortality

IFPRI

Page 6: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Global Hunger Index – Pakistan Borderline Alarming in 2014

19.1 17.8

16.4

19.1

15.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

GH

I

Page 7: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Food Security in Pakistan - Availability

Page 8: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Percentage share of agriculture in GDP is declining overtime

Source: Economic Survey (various issues)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1999-00 2005-06 2009-10 2013-14

Agriculture Major Crops Minor Crops Livestock Fishing

Pe

rce

nta

ge S

har

e(%

)

Page 9: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Growth rates in Agriculture are Declining and Low

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1990-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2000-2010 2010-2014

Gro

wth

rat

e (

%)

Agriculture Important Crops Other Crops Livestock

Source: Economic Survey (various issues)

Page 10: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Shares of important crops are constant

Source: Economic Survey (various issues)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1999-00 2005-06 2009-10 2013-14

Rice Wheat Cotton Sugarcane Maize

Pe

rce

nta

ge S

har

e(%

)

Page 11: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Yield per hectare of Major Crops are low and stagnant - except Maize

Source: Economic Survey (various issues)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1999-00 2005-06 2009-10 2013-14

Kg

/hec

tare

Rice Wheat Cotton Maize

Page 12: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Share of Labor in Agriculture is high and not declining as share of Agriculture in GDP declines (%)

Source: Economic Survey (various issues)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2005 2010 2013

Share of agriculture in GDP (FC) %age of Labor force in Agriculture

Per

cen

tage

Sh

are(

%)

Page 13: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

The Total Number of Under 5 Acres Farms has More than Tripled since 1960

19.0

57.7 64.7

44.3

28.2 24.8 23.8

8.8 6.8 9.0 3.9 2.6 3.3 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2

4.9 million

6.6 million 8.3 million

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

1960 2000 2010

Pe

rce

nta

ge (

%)

Years

under 5.0 5.0 to 12.5 12.5 to under 25.0

25.0 to under 50.0 50.0 to under 150.0 150.0 and above

Page 14: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Limited Diversification in Crop Agriculture across all farm sizes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Gra

ins

Wh

eat

Co

tto

n

Pu

lses

Suga

rcan

e

Oils

eed

Fod

der

Veg

etab

les

Orc

har

ds

Oth

er c

rop

s

% s

har

e in

to

tal f

arm

are

a

Farms less than 5 Hectares

1990 2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Gra

ins

Wh

eat

Co

tto

n

Pu

lses

Suga

rcan

e

Oils

eed

Fod

der

Veg

etab

les

Orc

har

ds

Oth

er c

rop

s

% s

har

e in

to

tal f

arm

are

a

Farms 20 Hectares and above

1990 2010

Source: Agriculture Census of Pakistan (1990; 2010)

Page 15: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Large variability of Crop Yields across Agro-climatic Zones in Pakistan 2010-11

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Wheat Rice Maize

Yiel

d (

Kg

/ha)

Barani Punjab Rice/Wheat Punjab Mixed Punjab Cotton/Wheat Punjab Low Intensity Punjab

Cotton/ Wheat Sindh Rice/ Other Sindh Southern KPK KPK Plains/Foothills Balochistan

Wheat Rice Maize

Coefficient of Variation (%) 31.39 38.16 77.35

Mean 2,584 (811)

2,088 (797)

2,721 (2105)

Source: Computed from HIES (2010-11)

Page 16: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Pure Farm Households are a small proportion of Rural Households in 2014 (%)

2.6

64.1

33.3

Farm house holds

Nonfarm house holds

mixed house households

Page 17: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Food Availability in Pakistan

Page 18: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Food Prices are Rising in Pakistan

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Wheat flour Basmati rice Moong Sugar Milk

Rs/

kg

2000-01 2004-05 2009-10 2013-14

Page 19: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Average Supply of Calories per capita per day is only marginally higher than minimum subsistence requirement

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Cal

ori

es/c

apit

a/d

ay

Page 20: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Food Accessibility in Pakistan

Page 21: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Share of Food expenditure of Poor Households is Very High

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001-02 2004-05 2005-06 2007-08 2010-11

% h

ou

seh

old

s

Botton quintile Highest quintile

Source: HIES (various issues)

Page 22: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Share of food expenditure increased by 5 percentage points during 2007/08 – 2010/11

55

59

36

40

44

49

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2007-08 2010-11

% h

ou

seh

old

s

Botton quintile Highest quintile All households

Source: Report of HIES 2007-08, Table 15, available at http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/social_statistics/publications/hies07_08/table15.pdf Report of HIES 2010-11, Table 15, available at http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/pslm/publications/hies10_11/tables/table15.pdf

Page 23: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Differences in the Consumption Patterns of Poor and Non-poor (Pakistan 2010-11)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Wheat Rice Pulses Sugar Fats Meat Milk Fruits & Vegs

Kg

/cap

ita/

mo

nth

Bottom quintile Highest quintile

Source: HIES 2010-11

Page 24: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

On Average more than 70% of food expenditure is spent on energy dense food (2010-11)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Energy dense food Pulses Fruits & vegs Other

% s

har

e in

fo

od

exp

end

itu

re

Overall Non-poor Poor

Source: HIES 2010-11

Page 25: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Poor Spend more on wheat and non-poor on Dairy (2010-11)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dairy Wheat Oils Sugars Meats

SHA

RE

OF

FOO

D E

XP

END

ITU

RE

(%)

Pakistan

Non-poor Poor

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dairy Wheat Oils Sugars Meats

SHA

RE

OF

FOO

D E

XP

END

ITU

RE

(%)

Urban areas

Non-poor Poor

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dairy Wheat Oils Sugars Meats

SHA

RE

OF

FOO

D E

XP

END

ITU

RE

(%)

Rural areas

Non-poor Poor

Source: HIES 2010-11

Page 26: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Calorie Consumption Differs very little across Poverty Status in Rural Areas (based on Official Data)

Source: HIES 2010-11

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Poor Nonpoor

CA

LOR

IES/

AE/

DA

Y

Urban Rural Pakistan

Page 27: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Dietary Diversity in Rural Pakistan 2014: (% households reporting type of food items consumed in last 24 hours - PSSP)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Wheat flour

Rice

Other cereals

Dairy products

Ghee/butter/oil

Sugar

Pulses

Dark green leafy vegetables

Vitamin A-rich vegetables

Tomato, onion, egg plant etc.

Roots and tubers (potatoes, turnip)

Fresh meat

Poultry

Eggs

Vitamin A-rich fruits

Other fruits

Spices, condiments

Source: RHPS (2014)

Page 28: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Food Frequency Reported in last seven days 2014 (% of hholds - PSSP)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Wheat flour

Rice

Other cereals

Dairy products

Ghee/butter/oil

Sugar

Pulses

Dark green leafy vegetables

Vitamin A-rich vegetables

Tomato, onion, egg plant etc.

Roots and tubers (potatoes, turnip)

Fresh meat

Poultry

Eggs

Vitamin A-rich fruits

Other fruits

Spices, condiments

Source: RHPS (2014)

Page 29: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Wheat is the major source of energy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Wheat Oils Dairy Sugars Meats

% S

HA

RE

IN T

OTA

L C

ALO

RIE

S

Overall Non-Poor Poor

Source: HIES 2010-11

Page 30: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Trends in the Prices of Food Items

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Wheat flour Basmati rice Moong Sugar Milk

Rs/

kg

2000-01 2004-05 2009-10 2013-14

Page 31: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Sharp Increase in the Price of Wheat since 2007-08

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Rs/

KG

Source: GOP (2014), Economic Survey 2013-14

Page 32: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Decreasing ability to access: Kilograms of Wheat Flour that one Day’s Wages can Buy declining

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Kilo

gram

s o

f Fl

ou

r p

er d

aily

wag

e (K

gs)

Skilled Isamabad

Skilled Karachi

Skilled Lahore

Unskilled Islamabad

Unskilled Karachi

Unskilled Lahore

Page 33: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Calories consumed and the cost of calories – (PSSP Study)

Region or Population Group

Total Calories

(per AE/day)

Food Expenditure

(per AE/day) (Rs)

100 Calories cost Overall

Food (Rs)

Calories from wheat

(per AE/day)

Expenditure on Wheat

(per AE/day) (Rs)

100 Calories cost from

Wheat (Rs)

Rural Poor 1,882 36.8 1.95 1,007 8.2 0.81

Rural Non-Poor 2,664 67.0 2.52 1,208 7.7 0.64

Urban Poor 1,782 40.1 2.25 881 9.2 1.04

Urban Non-Poor 2,289 74.8 3.27 872 7.3 0.83

Pakistan 2,260 57.0 2.52 1,041 7.3 0.70

Source: Malik et al (2014), estimated from HIES (2010-11)

Page 34: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Change in Prices and Income and Demand for Wheat 2010-11: (PSSP Study)

Budget share on wheat

Expenditure elasticity

Own price uncompensated

elasticity

Own price Compensated

elasticity Wheat-rice elasticity

Rural areas 18.6 0.79 -0.32 -0.209 0.006

Poor 22.9 0.84 -0.35 -0.165 -0.005

Non-poor 15.8 0.75 -0.35 -0.227 0.023

Urban areas 15.1 0.74 -0.31 -0.123 0.006

Poor 20.0 0.92 -0.36 -0.155 -0.001

Non-poor 11.8 0.67 -0.20 -0.107 -0.002

Pakistan 17.5 0.77 -0.32 -0.179 0.010

Poor 22.0 0.81 -0.21 -0.163 -0.012

Non-poor 14.5 0.76 -0.39 -0.173 0.021

Source: Malik et al (2014), estimated from HIES (2010-11)

Page 35: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Estimates indicate that Increase in Wheat Price has possible adverse implications for other essential Human Development Indicators

• An increase in the price of wheat may not result in substitution with other food items

• However, substitution with non-food items is possible

• A substitution with health and education may worsen the already low human development indicators and may have adverse effect on already high levels of poverty in the country

• Serious implications especially for current nutritional status and productivity of future generation

• A reduction in the purchasing power of the wage earners can aggravate this situation further.

Page 36: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Food Utilization: Dietary patterns impact on nutritional status

Page 37: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Malnutrition among Women – Only 53 % are normal (BMI -official data)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Underweight (<18.5) Normal (18.5-24.9) Overweight (25-29.9) Obese (>29.9)

% W

OM

EN (

15

-49

YEA

RS)

Pakistan Urban Rural

Source: NNS 2010-11

Page 38: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Micronutrient Deficiency among Women (2001-2011 -official data)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Prevalence of Anemia Vitamin A Deficiency Zinc Deficiency%

WO

MEN

(1

5-4

9 Y

EAR

S)

Pakistan

2001 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Prevalence of Anemia Vitamin A Deficiency Zinc Deficiency

% W

OM

EN (

15

-49

YEA

RS)

Urban areas

2001 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Prevalence of Anemia Vitamin A Deficiency Zinc Deficiency%

WO

MEN

(1

5-4

9 Y

EAR

S)

Rural areas 2001 2011

Source: NNS 2010-11

Page 39: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Nutritional Intake among Women (24 hours food recall -official

data)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Energy(K.cal)

Protein (gm)

Fats (gm)

Carbohydrate (gm)

Calcium (mg)

Phosphorus (mg)

Iron (mg)

Zn (mg)

Vit.C (mg)

Pakistan

Pakistan Recommended Allowance

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Energy(K.cal)

Protein (gm)

Fats (gm)

Carbohydrate (gm)

Calcium (mg)

Phosphorus (mg)

Iron (mg)

Zn (mg)

Vit.C (mg)

Urban areas

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Energy(K.cal)

Protein (gm)

Fats (gm)

Carbohydrate (gm)

Calcium (mg)

Phosphorus (mg)

Iron (mg)

Zn (mg)

Vit.C (mg)

Rural areas

Source: NNS 2010-11

Page 40: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Undernourished Females – Implications for Future Generation (World Bank Study, 2006)

• A malnourished woman is at higher risk of giving birth to an anemic or an underweight child (less than 2.5 kg)

• Such children have five times the risk of death in the first year and a high risk of growth failure during childhood

• Low birth weight may result in greater chronic diseases as an adult

• Severe iron deficiency anemia causes deaths during pregnancy and childbirth

• Iodine deficiency in pregnancy causes the birth of mentally impaired children

• Human and economic potential can be at risk by malnutrition

Page 41: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

For Pakistan Malnutrition Results in:

• Child mortality • Low birth-weight babies (31.6% of live births in 2007) rank 3rd in 183 countries • Under five mortality rate (89 per 1000 live births, 2008-2012) • Infant mortality rate (74 per 1000 live births, 2008-2012) • Neonatal mortality rate (55 per 1000 live births, 2008-2012)

• Disability • About 2.65 % population was disabled in 2012 (based on the projections on 1998

Census), 2.54% was in 1998 • Of these, 43% are children (1-15 years) • Of total disabled, 8.2% are blind, 7.5% deaf, 14% mentally retarded, 8.3% have

multiple disabilities

• Probability of falling sick, loss in work days and income

Source: PDHS 2012-13 Source: UNICEF, State of the World's Children, Childinfo, and Demographic and Health Surveys by ICF International Source: Helping Hands for Relief and Development (2012). Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) Statistics in Pakistan 2012

Page 42: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Protein-Energy Malnutrition among Children official data (< 5 years of age - official data)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1977 1985-87 1990 1990-94 2001 2011

% c

hild

ren

Underweight Stunted Wasted

Source: NNS 2010-11

Page 43: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Micronutrient Deficiency among Children (2001-2011 -official data)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Prevalence of Anemia Vitamin A Deficiency Zinc Deficiency%

CH

ILD

REN

Pakistan

2001 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Prevalence of Anemia Vitamin A Deficiency Zinc Deficiency

% C

HIL

DR

EN

Urban areas

2001 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Prevalence of Anemia Vitamin A Deficiency Zinc Deficiency%

CH

ILD

REN

Rural areas

2001 2011

Source: NNS 2010-11

Page 44: Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in …pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PBAAB565.pdf ·  · 2014-12-10Food security, consumption, poverty and nutrition in Pakistan: ... Kilograms

Nutritional Intake among Children 0-23 months (24 hours food recall - official data)

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Energy(K.cal)

Protein (gm)

Fats (gm)

Carbohydrate (gm)

Calcium (mg)

Phosphorus (mg)

Iron (mg)

Zn (mg)

Vit.C (mg)

Urban areas

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Energy(K.cal)

Protein (gm)

Fats (gm)

Carbohydrate (gm)

Calcium (mg)

Phosphorus (mg)

Iron (mg)

Zn (mg)

Vit.C (mg)

Pakistan

Pakistan Recommended Allowance

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Energy(K.cal)

Protein (gm)

Fats (gm)

Carbohydrate (gm)

Calcium (mg)

Phosphorus (mg)

Iron (mg)

Zn (mg)

Vit.C (mg)

Rural areas

Source: NNS 2010-11

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Low Levels of Mothers’ Knowledge about Child Nutrition (PSSP data)

23.59 25.59

14.06

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Iron deficiency Iodine Rich Food Drinking Water Treatment

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Source: RHPS (2012)

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High and Variable Prevalence of Malnutrition (<–2SD) by Province and Rural Pakistan (2013 - PSSP Study)

40

46

23

35

41

22

52

59

28 31

38

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Underweight Stunting Wasting

% C

HIL

DR

EN

All Pakistan Punjab Sindh KPK

Source: Shahzad et al. (2013)

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Comparison of malnourished children in NNS 2011 and RHPS 2013 (PSSP Study)

33

46

16

40

46

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Underweight Stunted Wasted

% C

HIL

DR

EN

NNS 2011 RHPS 2013

Source: Shahzad et al. (2013)

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Logistic Regression Analysis (PSSP Study)

• Dependent variables: HAZ, WAZ, WHZ =1 if malnourished (z-score <-2), 0 otherwise

• Child characteristics: age and gender

• Mother Characteristics: age at child birth, literacy

• Household characteristics: number of siblings, nuclear family, farm household, flush toilet, and poverty status

• Community characteristics: distance from BHU, LHV/LHW

• Location characteristics: Sindh and KPK

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Results of Logistic Regression (PSSP Study)

• Incidence of malnutrition among children under five is highest in Sindh

• Improving hygienic conditions appear important to reduce long term malnutrition (toilet facility and safe drinking water)

• Access to health care services plays a significant role in reducing the short-term nutrition (LHW)

• Mother’s education improves the general state of nutrition among children under five

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And child malnutrition is high across all expenditure quintiles (PSSP Study)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Underweight Stunting Wasting

% C

HIL

DR

EN

1st quintile 2nd quintile 3rd quintile 4th quintile 5th quintile

Source: Shahzad et al. (2013)

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Results Indicate the Need for:

• Identification of malnourished population based on scientific method (mapping exercise)

• Strong and accessible database for analysis; consistency in measuring indicators

• Moving towards nutrition-sensitive agriculture

• Agricultural value chain

• Kitchen gardening

• Better storage facilities/techniques for agricultural products

• Improved infrastructure and well functioning institutions (credit, marketing, etc)

• Fortification and bio-fortification

• Creating awareness about nutritious diet (in schools and homes through media)

• Role of local institutions (e.g., LHW)

• Strengthen PINS and SUN through appropriate monitoring and evaluation

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Malnutrition better indicator of Poverty

• Overall levels of poverty are high and calorie consumption is low across the board

• Children in all expenditure categories are equally affected

• Average calories intake of 80 percent households (bottom 4 quintiles) is 2211 when recommended allowance is 2350 calories

• Poverty and malnutrition are determined by the same variables

• Malnutrition indicators are often used as a proxy for poverty in international studies (Reinhard and Wijayaratne, 2002; Setboonsarng, 2005; Heltberg, 2009; Klaver. 2010)

• United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals first goal “eradicate extreme poverty and hunger.” Undernourishment and malnutrition are amongst the indicators for this goal

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Malnutrition better indicator of Poverty (contd.)

• Nutritional Status is a more direct measure of the welfare of a people

• It can be measured directly and in physical terms

• not indirectly and through assumption based analysis such as those for

money-metric measures of poverty which have proved very controversial in

Pakistan

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Summing up

• High prevalence of malnutrition in the country: • Poverty - Lack of resources at the household level to maintain the minimum

daily allowance of essential nutrients; and

• Lack of awareness about balanced diet and maintaining good health

• Focus of previous research on estimating numbers only

• Food Security not fully understood or integrated into policies • Little work on understanding the linkages between food security,

consumption behavior and nutritional outcomes and variations across socio-economic groups and regions

• Need re-prioritization and evaluation of any previous policies and programs

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Summing up • Limited Dietary Diversity: Cereals, fats, sugars, and dairy products are the main

sources of calories and macro-nutrients

• The consumption of micronutrient rich foods is very low (vegetables and fruits)

• Average calorie consumption is lower than the recommended level of 2350 and

unbalanced in terms of micro-nutrients

• Wheat is the main source of calories, carbohydrate and fiber

• Current policy focused on availability of wheat tonnage through production and

import. Little diversification away from four major crops.

• Lesser focus on accessibility, sustainability and safety.

• Wheat consumption is price inelastic (implications for dietary diversity and

household expenditures on education, health care, etc.?)

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Implications for Poverty Reduction

• Addressing this alarming situation requires:

1. Urgent development and implementation of appropriate multi-

dimensional policies for poverty reduction emphasising Food

Security (with greater emphasis on access and utilization aspects),

education (especially female), health and nutrition

2. More urgent awareness building about the gravity of the situation.

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Some Comments on the Multidimensional Poverty Index

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Pakistan is in the process of adopting a Multidimensional Poverty Index – this is an adapted and expanded version of the UNDPs Human Development Index

The MPI is the product of two components:

• Incidence: the percentage of people who are poor (or the headcount ratio, H);

• Intensity: the average share of indicators in which poor people are deprived (A).

MPI = H x A

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Dimension

Indicator

Deprived if….

Relative Weight

Education

Years of Schooling No household member has completed five years of schooling. 1/6

Child School Attendance Any school-aged child is not attending school up to the age at which they would complete class 8.

1/6

Health Child Mortality Any child has died in the household. 1/6 Nutrition Any adult or child for whom there is nutritional information is

malnourished. 1/6

Living Standard

Electricity The household has no electricity. 1/18 Improved Sanitation The household’s sanitation facility is not improved (according to

MDG guidelines), or it is improved but shared with other households.

1/18

Safe Drinking Water Water The household does not have access to safe drinking water (according to MDG guidelines) or safe drinking water is more than a 30-minute walk from home, roundtrip.

1/18

Flooring The household has a dirt, sand or dung floor 1/18

Cooking Fuel The household cooks with dung, wood or charcoal. 1/18

Assets The household does not own more than one radio, TV, telephone, bike, motorbike or refrigerator and does not own a car or truck.

1/18

Indicators of Multidimensional Poverty Index and Weights assigned to them

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Multiplicity of available data sources with very variable quality

• Demographic and Health Surveys

• Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey

• Household Income and Economic Surveys

• WHO Health Surveys

PLEASE FOCUS ON THE HUGE VARIABILITY IN NUTRION ESTIMATES FROM THREE DIFFRERENT SURVEYS IN 2001 IN THE NEXT SLIDE

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Data source

Percent

Underweight Percent Stunted Percent Wasted

MNS 1976 - 42.9 8.6

MNS 1985 51.5 41.8 10.8

PDHS 1990 40.4 50.2 9.2

NNS 1998 38.8 60.1 9.5

NNS 2001 42.3 32.5 11.2

PSES 2001 51.4 52.7 -

PRHS 2001 56.6 64.4 18.4

PPHS 2010 39.8 64.5 17.2

NNS 2011 33.3 46.3 16.1

Pakistan’s available data leave much to be desired Levels of Malnutrition in Pakistan (1976 to 2013)

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Why Not a Happiness Index for Pakistan?

• Economic Wellness:

• Environmental Wellness:

• Physical Wellness

• Mental Wellness:

• Workplace Wellness:

• Social Wellness

• Political Wellness

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Why is Pakistan not using the available BISP Poverty Scorecard Indicators Data – it has all the multidimensional information needed

• Demographics • Number of dependents – (age Less than 18 or greater than 65 and above)

• Education • Head education

• The number of children from 5 to 16 years old currently attending to the school

• Household Characteristics • Room ratio

• Kind of toilet

• Assets • At least one refrigerator, freezer or washing machine

• At least one air conditioner, air cooler, geyser or heater

• At least one cooking stove, cooking range or microwave oven

• At least one TV

• One car or one car with one moto

• One moto (but no car)

• One buffalo or bullock and at least one cow or goat or sheep

• Neither buffalo, bullock nor cow, goat or sheep

• Some agricultural land but less or equal than 12.5 acres

• More than 12.5 acres of agricultural land

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Pakistan Needs

• Simple Robust Real Time Measures

• Comparable over time and Space to capture changes over time and vast disparities across space.

• Minimal Data Requirements

• Easily Understood and applicable Methodology

• Confidence in the Measures

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Thank you so much


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