Force Readiness Modeling & Simulation

Ray Nason, Ph.D.

Max Green

Booz Allen Hamilton

October 25, 2016

2

Overview

• The World We Live In…

• U.S. Response to Wounded Warrior Needs

• IDES…An Effective But Complex Solution

• Managing IDES Performance

• IDES Simulation Model

• Demonstration

• Questions

Artic Land Right Disputes

Cyber attacks on

critical Infrastructure

Cuba Instability

Support to Civil

Authorities

Destabilizing

TCOs Haiti in Crisis

Columbia

Insurgency

Venezuela

Instability

Peru

Insurgency

Counter-narcotic

Operations

Terrorist WMD

threat Natural

Disasters

Unaccompanied

Minors

Wildfires Border

Security

Ebola

Military-Military

Partnerships

COCOM Theater

Security Cooperation

Program

Egypt

Balkan

Instability

Pakistan

Tensions

Territorial

Disputes Piracy

Afghanistan

Ukraine/Russia

Tensions

China/India

Rivalry Israeli/ Palestinian

Tension

Boko Haram Yemen

Instability

ISIL/ISIS

EU Friction

Domestic

Terrorist threats

Libya

Humanitaria

n Crisis

Governance

Challenges

Corruption

Sudan

Conflict Somalia

SE Asia

Tensions

PDRK

WMDs

China India

Famine

The World We Live In…

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4

“Apart from the war itself, this department and I have no higher priority.”

Defense Secretary Gates, May 2007

The World We Live In…

5

Dis

abili

ty S

yste

m

Overarching Integrated

Product Team

(OIPT)

Full-time staff

and VA Detail

Incoming from other commissions

Press Releases

Congress & Media

TB

I/PT

SD

Cas

e M

anag

emen

t

Do

D/V

A D

ata

Sh

arin

g

Fac

iliti

es

AB

C W

IIP

Leg

isla

tio

n &

Pu

blic

Aff

airs

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Senior Oversight Committee (SOC) Co-Chairs:

DEPSECDEF and DEPSECVA

U.S. Response to Wounded Warrior Needs

Pay

an

d P

erso

nn

el

7

6

Dis

abili

ty S

yste

m

Overarching Integrated

Product Team

(OIPT)

Full-time staff

and VA Detail

Incoming from other commissions

Press Releases

Congress & Media

TB

I/PT

SD

Cas

e M

anag

emen

t

Do

D/V

A D

ata

Sh

arin

g

Fac

iliti

es

AB

C W

IIP

Leg

isla

tio

n &

Pu

blic

Aff

airs

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Senior Oversight Committee (SOC) Co-Chairs:

DEPSECDEF and DEPSECVA

U.S. Response to Wounded Warrior Needs

Pay

an

d P

erso

nn

el

7

• November 2007, the U.S. Departments of Defense (DoD) and Veterans

Affairs (VA) created IDES, a new disability evaluation process • Pilot a joint process to evaluate disabilities of seriously wounded, ill or injured Service

members to return to duty or separate

• Share medical examinations and ratings

• Pay separating Service member benefits

within 30 days of separation

• September 2016, Global enterprise – Disability decisions to 162,738

– Currently evaluating 20,920

– Gained 2,291 / Completed 2785

– 225 days from referral to benefits

IDES…An Effective But Complex Solution

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8

Managing IDES Performance

• Many Performance Management tools

• Supply chain methods manage current “production”

• Simulation modeling to predict system performance

Discrete-Event

Simulation Data

Analysis & Visualization

PM

Methods

Cost & Budget

Estimation Process & Resource

Optimization Supply

Chain & Logistics

War- Gaming

Exercises

9

IDES Simulation Model

Inputs:

• Personnel Staffing

• Service member cases

• Processes and process times

Outputs:

• Speed

• Case production

• Inventory

• Staff utilization

• Diagnostics

A discrete-event simulation that models the flow of Service member disability cases

10

IDES Simulation Model

Includes a dynamic, simulation model-based dashboard that animates IDES performance over time.

• Dashboard can visualize any model performance output

• Can drill-down to see the performance at any location

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IDES Simulation Model

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IDES Simulation Model

Simulation Demonstration