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A Framework for DiscussingU.S. Joint Force Structures duringthe Next Administration
12 November 2008
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Multiple (Competing) $T demands upon the Federal Budgetfor FY09 (and beyond)
DEFENSE
HOMELAND SECURITY
RECORING OFNUCLEAR POWER
HIGHWAY INFRASTRUCTURE
RETIREMENT &
HEALTH CARE
Wall Street BailWall Street Bail--OutOut
2008
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How w ill budget demands upon the Federal Budget be “Resolved?”
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Denis McDonough Chairman JCS Rep. Barney FrankPresident Bush
Competing Views of Future Defense Budgets (FY10-FY16)
Obama Administration’s Range of Alternatives?
Option 4 10% Growth: Resetting the force & Defense as a middle class jobs program to support economic recovery
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US Defense Budget Alternatives
It is the integral under the FYDP curve that matters(!)
Constant 2008 Dollars
Obama Term #1 Obama Term #2?
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
FY09Supp’ls
Option 4
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What’s NOT in the DOD Budget?Factors NOT included in POM/POR
$-
$50,000,000,000
$100,000,000,000
$150,000,000,000
$200,000,000,000
$250,000,000,000
$300,000,000,000
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Ground Force RequipSCN Overr uns
POR Acquisit ion Overr uns
Fuel
Health Care
DOD Supplemental Levels
~$1.2T Cumulative Shortfall
+ + + + +
2007 Data
Mar 2008 GAO ReportsMar 2008 GAO Reports50% higher numbers50% higher numbers
>$1.5T
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1. A SMALLER Force Structure1. A SMALLER Force Structure
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Joint Building Block Comparison(Force Structure Alternatives)
11
9
2 2
3
6
3
8
7
3
4
5
C S G
E S G
T A G
M P S - F
M P S - E
M E B
S - S A G
T A M D
L C S r o n
M C M r o n
S S G N / S O
S U B r o n
B C T - H
B C T - M
B C T - L
A V B - H
A V B - M
F i r e s B
M E ( E )
S B ( M T )
M E ( A D )
B F S B
U E x
U E y
U E z
C S S G
3
17
6
12
6
8
10
8
10
6
5
12
55
2
10
7
4
2
10
5
E A F - X
B M W
F R W
S R W
A T B M S
S A W
E A F - X X
Naval Forces Ground Forces Air Forces
POM 08(What we wanted)
POM 08 Program of Record
•
313 ship Navy
•
6 MEB Marine Corps
•
43 Maneuver Bde
Army
•
10 EAF Air Force
Joint Force Structure Taxonomy
How do we cut by:Option 4
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What is your going-in position?
•
“Equal Pain” (a la
Colin Powell)
•
“Disproportionate
Cuts” (data driven)Army
25.0%
DON
28.8%
USAF
29.5%
DOD
16.6%
FY08 Service Splits of DoD TOA
Keep the Service Splits Change the Service Splits
USAF & USN ~60% of Budget
• Most expensive platforms• Highest O&S costs
USA & USMC forces are having
the greatest influence in CENTCOM• SASO/SSTR are ground operations
O ti 4
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Let the Debate Begin…
1 5 % C U T
2 0 % C U T
3 0 % C U T
4 5 %
C U T
DoD Reduction (Level I)•
260 ship Navy
•
6 MEB Marine Corps
•
40 Maneuver Bde
Army
•
10 EAF(-) Air Force
DoD Reduction (Level II)
•
220 ship Navy
•
5 MEB Marine Corps
•
38 Maneuver Bde
Army
•
9 EAF Air Force
DoD Reduction (Level III)
•
190 ship Navy
•
4 MEB Marine Corps
•
35 Maneuver Bde
Army
•
7 EAF Air Force
DoD Reduction (Level IV)
•
150 ship Navy
•
4 MEB Marine Corps
•
35 Maneuver Bde
Army
•
4 EAF Air Force
• End Strength (~1.2M Active, 362K Reserves)• Rationale Thematic: Equal pain• Implications: Reduced Surge Capacity
• End Strength (~1.1M Active, 340K Reserves)• Rationale Thematic: Air-Land Favoritism• Impacts: Reduced surge capacity &
additional dependence on FWD basing
-210KActive
-285KActive
-420KActive
-625K
Active
> 30% Cuts will lead sacrificing missions
~ 30% Cuts implies heavy dependence upon multinational coordination
• End Strength (~0.7M Active, 234K Reserves)•
Rationale Thematic: Disproportional cutsto “high cost of ownership”
forces
• Impacts: Reduced surge capacity, additionaldependence on FWD basing, dependence oncoalition responses in any/all contingencies
2
10
7
4
2
10
5
3
17
6
12
6
8
10
8
10
6
5
12
55
11
9
2 23
6
3
87
34
5
C S G
E S G
T A G
M P S - F
M P S - E
M E B
S - S A G
T A M D
L C S r o n
M C M r o n
S S G N / S O
S U B r o n
B C T - H
B C T - M
B C T - L
A V B - H
A V B - M
F i r e s B
M E ( E )
S B ( M T )
M E ( A D )
B F S B
U E x
U E y
U E z
C S S G
E A F - X
B M W
F R W
S R W
A T B M S
S A W
E A F - X X
• End Strength (~0.9M Active, 298K Reserves)•
Rationale Thematic: Disproportional cuts to “highcost of ownership”
forces• Impacts: Reduced surge capacity, additional
dependence on FWD basing, dependence on
coalition responses in medium scale contingencies
2
10
7
4
2
10
5
3
17
6
12
6
8
10
8
10
65
12
55
11
9
2 23
6
3
87
34
5
C S G
E S G T A G M P S
- F
M P S
- E
M E B
S - S A
G
T A M
D
L C S r
o n
M C M r o n
S S G N
/ S O
S U B r o n
B C T - H
B C T - M
B C T
- L
A V B - H
A V B - M
F i r e s
B
M E ( E )
S B ( M
T )
M E ( A
D )
B F S
B
U E x
U E y
U E z
C S S
G
E A F - X
B M W F R W S
R W A T B M
S
S A W E A F - X X
Option 4
2
10
7
4
2
10
5
3
17
6
12
6
8
10
8
10
65
12
55
11
9
2 23
6
3
87
34
5
C S G
E S G
T A G
M P S - F
M P S - E
M E B
S - S A G
T A M D
L C S r o n
M C M r o n
S S G N / S O
S U B r o n
B C T - H
B C T - M
B C T - L
A V B - H
A V B - M
F i r e s B
M E ( E )
S B ( M T )
M E ( A D )
B F S B
U E x
U E y
U E z
C S S G
E A F - X
B M W
F R W
S R W
A T B M S
S A W
E A F - X X
2
10
7
4
2
10
5
3
17
6
12
6
8
10
8
10
6 5
12
55
11
9
2 23
6
3
87
34
5
C S G
E S G
T A G
M P S - F
M P S - E
M E B
S - S A G
T A M D
L C S r o n
M C M r o n
S S G N / S O
S U B r o n
B C T - H
B C T - M
B C T - L
A V B - H
A V B - M
F i r e s B
M E ( E )
S B ( M T )
M E ( A D )
B F S B
U E x
U E y
U E z
C S S G
E A F - X
B M W
F R W
S R W
A T B M S
S A W
E A F - X X
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Level -
I
2
10
7
4
2
10
5
3
17
6
12
6
8
10
8
10
6
5
12
55
11
9
2 23
6
3
8
7
3
45
C S G
E S G
T A G
M P S - F
M P S - E
M E B
S - S A G
T A M D
L C S r o n
M C M r o n
S S G N / S O
S U B r o n
B C T - H
B C T - M
B C T - L
A V B - H
A V B - M
F i r e s B
M E ( E )
S B ( M T )
M E ( A D )
B F S B
U E x
U E y
U E z
C S S G
E A F - X
B M W
F R W
S R W
A T B M S
S A W
E A F - X X
Naval Forces Ground Forces Air Forces
15% CutDoD Reduction (Level I)
•
260 ship Navy
•
6 MEB Marine Corps
•
40 Maneuver Bde
Army
•
9 EAF(-) Air Force
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Level -
II 20% Cut
DoD Reduction (Level II)
•
220 ship Navy
•
5 MEB Marine Corps
•
38 Maneuver Bde
Army
•
8 EAF Air Force
2
10
7
4
2
10
5
3
17
6
12
6
8
10
8
10
6
5
12
55
11
9
2 23
6
3
8
7
3
45
C S G
E S G
T A G
M P S - F
M P S - E
M E B
S - S A G
T A M D
L C S r o n
M C M r o n
S S G N / S O
S U B r o n
B C T - H
B C T - M
B C T - L
A V B - H
A V B - M
F i r e s B
M E ( E )
S B ( M T )
M E ( A D )
B F S B
U E x
U E y
U E z
C S S G
E A F - X
B M W
F R W
S R W
A T B M S
S A W
E A F - X X
Naval Forces Ground Forces Air Forces
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Level -
III 30% Cut
DoD Reduction (Level III)
•
190 ship Navy
•
4 MEB Marine Corps
•
35 Maneuver Bde
Army
•
7 EAF Air Force
2
10
7
4
2
10
5
3
17
6
12
6
8
10
8
10
6
5
12
55
11
9
2 23
6
3
8
7
3
45
C S G
E S G
T A G
M P S - F
M P S - E
M E B
S - S A G
T A M D
L C S r o n
M C M r o n
S S G N / S O
S U B r o n
B C T - H
B C T - M
B C T - L
A V B - H
A V B - M
F i r e s B
M E ( E )
S B ( M T )
M E ( A D )
B F S B
U E x
U E y
U E z
C S S G
E A F - X
B M W
F R W
S R W
A T B M S
S A W
E A F - X X
Naval Forces Ground Forces Air Forces
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Level -
IV 45% Cut
DoD Reduction (Level IV)
•
150 ship Navy•
4 MEB Marine Corps
•
35 Maneuver Bde
Army
•
4 EAF Air Force
2
10
7
4
2
10
5
3
17
6
12
6
8
10
8
10
6
5
12
55
11
9
2 23
6
3
8
7
3
45
C S G
E S G
T A G
M P S - F
M P S - E
M E B
S - S A G
T A M D
L C S r o n
M C M r o n
S S G N / S O
S U B r o n
B C T - H
B C T - M
B C T - L
A V B - H
A V B - M
F i r e s B
M E ( E )
S B ( M T )
M E ( A D )
B F S B
U E x
U E y
U E z
C S S G
E A F - X
B M W
F R W
S R W
A T B M S
S A W
E A F - X X
Naval Forces Ground Forces Air Forces(Smaller Squadrons)
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•
Low-Density, high-demand functions
and features must be protected – Minor cut-back(s) can lead to the
deactivation of large capabilities(!)
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2. A DIFFERENT Force Structure2. A DIFFERENT Force Structure
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National Defense StrategySecurity Challenge Descriptions
• Traditional challenges are largely represented by states employing legacy andadvanced military capabilities and recognizable military forces, in long established,well known forms of military competition and conflict.
• Irregular challenges are unconventional methods adopted and employed by non-state and state actors to counter stronger state opponents.
• Catastrophic challenges involve surreptitious acquisition, possession and possibleterrorist or rogue employment of WMD or methods producing WMD-like effects.
• Disruptive future challenges are those likely to emanate from competitorsdeveloping, possessing, and employing breakthrough technological capabilitiesintended to supplant an opponent’s advantages in particular operational domains.
Shift in policy Shift in priorities Shift in investments
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COCOMs
Classic Kinetic Assessment Methodology
GAP A
GAP B
GAP C
GAP D
Joint ForceStructure
Assumptions Joint GlobalForwardPresence
Policy Joint GlobalForceResponse
PlanDefense Planning Scenario(s)
ForceArrival
Sequence
WeaponsLoadout
Assumptions
EnemyTargetSets
DefensePlanningGuidance
Weapon-TargetPairing
NetOutcomes
Insights&
Recommendations
B
u i l d i n g B l o c k s
B u i l d i n g B l o c k s B
u i l d i n g B l o c k s
B u i l d i n g B l o c k s
Conops
Architecture
COCOMs &Warfighters
MOEs, MOMs& MOPs
OLD
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Modified Performance Assessment Methodology
GAP A
GAP B
GAP C
GAP D
DoD
Force
StructureAssumptions DoD
Global
ForwardPresence
Policy DoD
GlobalForce
ResponsePlan
Coalition Planning Scenario(s)
ResourceArrival
Sequence
ResourceAvailability
Assumptions
Problems,Challenges
& Issues
Multi-NationalInteragency
PlanningContexts
Resource-ChallengePairing
NetOutcomes
B
u i l d i n g B l o c k s
B u i l d i n g B l o c k s B
u i l d i n g B l o c k s
B u i l d i n g B l o c k s
Conops
Architecture
Coalition InteragencyTask Force, Lead
MOEs, MOMs& MOPs
DOD GUIDANCETO FOCUS
ON “SOFT POWER”
NEW
OGO’s
NGO’sCoalition Partners
OGO’sNGO’s
Coalition Partners
OGO’sNGO’s
Coalition Partners
DODD 3000.05, Military Support for Stability, Security,Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) Operations
4.1. Stability operations
are a core U.S. military mission that the
Department of Defense shall be prepared to conduct and support.They shall be given priority comparable to combat operations
and
be explicitly addressed and integrated across all DoD
activities
including doctrine, organizations, training, education, exercises,materiel, leadership, personnel, facilities, and planning.
Insights&
Recommendations
Preventing War
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Not “Either-Or,” Rather “What the
Balance Ought to Be?”
Old SchoolCold War StyleForce-on-Force ThreatCorrelation of Forces
New School
Persistent SASO/SSTR Threats
NOT a “LesserIncluded Case” (!)
How Should The Joint Forces be Trained, Equipped & Organized?
99% : 1%60% : 40%50% : 50%
33.3% : 66.6%
25% : 75%
Application of forceDeath & Destruction
Prevention of Conflict“Hearts & Minds”
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Operational Maneuver
Warfare Forces
Counterinsurgency Forces
SSTR &MOOTW Forces
Forcible Entry Forces
Sea-Air-Land Forces
SASO
Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) Operations
Expeditionary
They come,they do violent acts,they leave
They stay
Expeditionary Destroying enemy force structure, and (if needed) change of government (or identity)
•
Forcible Entry Forces –
profoundly combined arms forces, optimized for rapid deployment
and
employment when theater access is denied or non-existent•
Operational Maneuver Warfare Forces –
heavy mechanized firepower intensive forces designed to
destroy enemy military units (designed for deployment to theaters once access has been gained andassured, and employed to destroy major enemy forces, conquer territory, impose regime change (or identity change))
Security & Stability Operations (SASO) Competitive Governance: Protect populations & isolate populations from enemy influence
•
Counterinsurgency Forces –
to support and enhance the capabilities for governance and military
operations of a ruling coalition partner to suppress, defeat, neutralize an insurgent element, either locally or externally supported
•
SSTR & MOOTW Forces –
military diplomacy and furthering political engagement aimed at
conditioning a future battlespace
by enhancing the capabilities of potential allies and opposition units
(not all are state actors) --
prevent crisis & conflict (if possible)
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Operational Maneuver
Warfare Forces
Counterinsurgency Forces
SSTR &MOOTW Forces
Forcible Entry Forces
Sea-Air-Land Forces
SASO Expeditionary
They come,they do violent acts,they leave
They stay
USA: 8 Div USMC: 1.5 DE
0 USA: 1 Div
USMC: 0.7 DE USA: 1.3 Div
USMC: ~0.5 DE*
ArmyNG: 8 Div
USMC: 0.5 DE
ArmyNG: 1
USMC: 0
USARes: 1
USMC: 0
USA: 0
USMC: 0.5 DE
2001
ACTIVE
2001
Reserves
USA: ~10.3 Divisions (Active)USMC: 8 RCT Equiv/s (Active)
* Enough lift for only 1 Division Equivalent
~ 13 Div Equ. (Active) + ~11 DE (Reserves) = 24 Division Force Structure
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Operational Maneuver
Warfare Forces
Counterinsurgency Forces
SSTR &MOOTW Forces
Forcible Entry Forces
Sea-Air-Land Forces
SASO Expeditionary
They come,they do violent acts,they leave
They stay
USA: 2 Div USMC: 0.5 DE
USA: 8 DE USMC: 1.5 DE
USA: 1 Div USMC: 0.5 DE
USA: 0.8 Div USMC: ~0.5 DE*
ArmyNG: 3 Div
USMC: 0.5 DE
ArmyNG: 5
USMC: 0.5 DE
USARes: 1
USMC: 0
USA: 0
USMC: 0
2007
ACTIVE
2007
Reserves
USA: ~11.8 Divisions (Active)USMC: ~8 RCT Equiv/s (Active)
There is a lot of artillery operating as infantry…(USA/ANG: may be 3 or 4 Div heavier in Counterinsurgency forces)
~ 14.8 Div Equ. (Active) + ~10 DE (Reserves) = ~24.8 Division Force Structure
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Operational Maneuver
Warfare Forces
Counterinsurgency Forces
SSTR &MOOTW Forces
Forcible Entry Forces
Sea-Air-Land Forces
SASO Expeditionary
They come,they do violent acts,they leave
They stay
USA: 3 Div USMC: 1 DE
USA: 9 DE USMC: 1.1 DE
USA: 1 Div USMC: 0.7 DE
USA: 1 Div USMC: 0.5 DE
ArmyNG: 3 Div
USMC: 0.5 DE
ArmyNG: 5
USMC: 0.5 DE
USARes: 1
USMC: 0
USA: 0
USMC: 0
2010
ACTIVE
2010
Reserves
USA: ~14 Divisions (Active)USMC: ~10 RCT Equiv/s (Active)
~ 17.3 Div Equ. (Active) + ~10 DE (Reserves) = ~27.3 Division Force Structure
There is a lot of artillery operating as infantry…(USA/ANG: may be 3 or 4 Div heavier in Counterinsurgency forces)
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Operational Maneuver
Warfare Forces
Counterinsurgency Forces
SSTR &MOOTW Forces
Forcible Entry Forces
Sea-Air-Land Forces
SASO Expeditionary
They come,they do violent acts,they leave
They stay
USA: 4 Div USMC: 1 DE
USA: 7 DE USMC: 0.5 DE
USA: 2 Div USMC: 0.7 DE
USA: 0.8 Div USMC: 1 DE
ArmyNG: 2 Div
USMC: 0.5 DE
ArmyNG: 5
USMC: 0.5 DE
USARes: 2
USMC: 0
ArmyNG: 0
USMC: 0
2010
ACTIVE
2010
Reserves
USA: ~4.8 Div (Active)USMC: ~6 RCT Equiv/s (Active)
~ 17 Div Equ. (Active) + ~10 DE (Reserves) = ~27 Division Force Structure
What do we re-set the ground forces to be? … (2012 to 2020 horizon)
USA: 9 Div (Active)USMC: ~4 RCT Equiv/s (Active)
Take Artillery out of the infantry, but give them a secondary mission of “Civil Affairs”
link to lift & re-use requirements
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Summary & Conclusion (Part A)
•
Implications for next DoD
Analytic Agenda
– Reflect the (1) Smaller and (2) Different Forces•
Air-Land Combat Scenarios (1 to 3)
–
We must retain a cutting-edge military able to defeatconventional adversaries
•
New Scenarios to reflect “pockets of exploitation”
(3 to 8)
–
Smaller Military, means less forward presence
–
Smaller Military, means fewer missions (new or existing)
–
Smaller Military, means disengagement
–
Significantly more cooperative peacetime operations
How can the Joint forces do “more with less?”
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A Once-in-a-Century Opportunity…A Once-in-a-Century Opportunity…
1998
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Programmatic Ebbs & Flows
1998
1998
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NULL
Window of Opportunity
1998
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Air-Land Combat Recapitalization (Circa 2000)
2000 2010 2020 2030
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0997 98 99 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
1990
JSF-MAV-8B
F/A-18C/D
CH-46MV-22
CH-53
KC-130
EFV/AAAV VariantsAAV-7A1
AAAV
M1A2
STRIKER/LAV IILAV
MRAP/HMMWV(R)/LTMVHMMV
5-Ton Family
LVS IILVS (Mk 48)
M198 TH
PI
PIJTR/MATTA
AAWS-HTOW
JAVELINDragon
AT-4
SMAWPREDATOR
120mm RF SP Mortar LAV II
155mm LTH
5+ years of combat ≈ 16-20+ years of peacetime ops
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NOTE: GAO’s 2008 Report is 50% worse(!)
DOD Budget plans/estimates
Actual Costs to Execute
Across the board: 100% over budget, 8+ year delays
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Summary & Conclusion (Part B)
•
DoD
Force Structure
– Virtually a “clean slate” – New DoD leadership can begin the process of
doing whatever they want
–
The Obama administration has the
opportunity to set the stage for US Militaryforces for the next 50-100 years (!)
Does JFCOM seek to be “reactive?” or “proactive?”
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Questions?
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Industry
Government
$ 2 0 B N A V S E A O p e r a t i n g B u d g e t
$185K/year $220K/year $250K/year $280K/year $350K/year
$120K/year $140K/year $180K/year $220K/year $240K/year
70,270 65,455 62,400 57,857 49,143
58,333 40,000 24,444 17,273 11,667
Over 20 years: Industry labor rates will have increased ~90%, Labor force will have contracted by ~42%Government labor rates will have increased ~100%, Labor force will have contracted by ~83%
Industry Labor Rates (Journeyman)
Government Labor Rates (Journeyman)
“Acquisition Reform”
I:G Ratio
1.2I:G Ratio
4.2
J i t B ildi Bl k C iPOM 08 Program of Record
VIEWGRAPH
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Joint Building Block Comparison(Force Structure Alternatives)
11
9
2 2
3
6
3
8
7
3
4
5
8
7
1
C S G
E S G
T A G
M P S - F
M P S - E
M E B
S - S A G
T A M D
L C S r o n
M C M r o n
S S G N / S O
S U B r o n
6 6
4
5
8
5
4
15
9
5
6
8
6
4
10
2
B C T - H
B C T - M
B C T - L
A V B - H
A V B - M
F i r e s B
M E ( E )
S B ( M T )
M E ( A D )
B F S B
U E x
U E y
U E z
C S S G
3
17
6
12
6
8
10
8
10
6
5
12
55
4
2
10
7
4
2
10
5
8
E A F - X
B M W
F R W
S R W
A T B M S
S A W
E A F - X X
6
8
4
Naval Forces Ground Forces Air Forces
POM 08(What we want)
What we can afford
g
•
300 ship Navy
•
6 MEB Marine Corps
•
43 Maneuver Bde
Army
•
10 AEF Air Force
Affordable Objectives?•
190 ship Navy
•
5 MEB Marine Corps
•
35 Maneuver Bde
Army
•
8 AEF Air Force
RED indicates unitsthat may be eliminatedfrom the force structure
This level/degree of contraction is inevitable, unless we take actions to prevent it.
VIEWGRAPHGENERATEDIN DEC 2005
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Level -
II 20% Cut
2
10
7
4
2
10
5
3
17
6
12
6
8
10
8
10
6
5
12
55
11
9
2 23
6
3
8
7
3
45
C S G
E S G
T A G
M P S - F
M P S - E
M E B
S - S A G
T A M D
L C S r o n
M C M r o n
S S G N / S O
S U B r o n
B C T - H
B C T - M
B C T - L
A V B - H
A V B - M
F i r e s B
M E ( E )
S B ( M T )
M E ( A D )
B F S B
U E x
U E y
U E z
C S S G
E A F - X
B M W
F R W
S R W
A T B M S
S A W
E A F - X X
Naval Forces Ground Forces Air Forces
DoD Reduction (Level II)
•
220 ship Navy
•
5 MEB Marine Corps
•
38 Maneuver Bde
Army
•
9 EAF Air Force
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Four Phases of Resolution
•
Phase 2
– The Hunt for Funds (Passing the Hat)
Billions
Millions
Thousands
X
X
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End Strength
•
Army –
2008: This year the President approved accelerating the end-strength of the Army’s Active Component to547,000 and the Army National Guard to 358,200 by 2010.
•
Navy –
–
2008 (332,436): With the Navy’s Fleet of the future established, and seeing cost-savings platforms beingdelivered to the Fleet, the Navy announced Feb. 5 2007 the plan to reach an end strength number of 328,4000 for active duty and 67,800 for reserves in 2008, reaching a floor of approximately 322,000 for active duty and 68,000 for reserves in 2013.
•
Air Force – –
2008: of the Air Force Michael W. Wynne said, "I must stand by the 316,000" figure in USAF’s
budget
request. A few minutes later, he declared, "We really would prefer to hedge our bet at 330,000."
–
At which point Chairman Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) sighed, "I kind of feel like Mark Twain, [who once said], ‘Themore is explained to me, the more I don’t understand it.’ "
–
He’s not alone. We know that USAF today has 329,000 airmen. Whether
that end strength is going up or
down, though, is a topic snarled in the arcana
of federal budgets and Pentagon politics.
–
Wynne himself is not confused. Far from it. He is simply trapped
by what he officially must say.
–
Where did 316,000 come from? At the end of 2004, USAF had 376,600 actives. Service leaders,desperately seeking funds to support recapitalization, laid plans to cut 60,000 airmen, leaving 316,600. Thelast increment of 13,000 airmen was to go in 2009.
•
USMC – –
2008 (194,000): We continue to retain Marines at unprecedented levels in order to grow the Marine Corps’
end strength to 202,000. Retention goals were substantially increased in mid-fiscal year 2007 and willcontinue to increase through fiscal year 2011 to support the continued growth of our force. The dynamics of the Corps’
manpower system must match the required skills and grades to stand up and staff additional unitsto enable a 1:2 deployment-to-dwell time ratio.
2007 Data
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$0.00
$10,000,000,000.00
$20,000,000,000.00$30,000,000,000.00
$40,000,000,000.00
$50,000,000,000.00
$60,000,000,000.00
$70,000,000,000.00$80,000,000,000.00
$90 000 000 000 00
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Impending Fiscal Realities
$0.00
$100.00
$200.00
$300.00
$400.00
$500.00
$600.00
$700.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Army
25.0%
DON
28.8%
USAF
29.5%
DOD
16.6%
Will Supplementals Continue?
POM-08
Factors NOT included in POM/POR
~$380B Cumulative Shortfall
+ + + + +
>$1.5T