Date post: | 07-Aug-2015 |
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Business |
Upload: | aleks-lynnyk |
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• I saw the future big problems with exchange rate UAH\$ in Feb13, as result the future falling of customers purchasing capacity and sales
• Regarding this my strategy suggestions to General Manager for FY 2013-2014 were:
• Avoiding big investment in business expansion
• Focus on efficiency of the current business
8 SIMPLE STEPS
The way to forecast the currency crisis in Ukraine
Україна
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Step 1
The National Budgetdeficit is on the same level (10-20 billion uahper year)
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Step 2
Decreasing the GDP growth
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Step 3
Increasing the Government & Guaranteed Debt
As result increasing theinterest payments
Step 4
Large increasing the External Debt
External Debt and GDP, million $Step 5
High ratio of the External Debt and GDP
10 000
15 000
5 000
0
01.03.2015
5,624
Step 6
Decreasing the NBU reserves
Step 7
Increasing balance of payments deficit
Source: http://www.kuchma.org.ua/ico/monitoring/10397/
GDP, mln UAH
Step 8
The weak Ukrainian economy (Steps 1-6), big deficit of balance of payments (Step 7) and exchange rate changing
Step 1 The National Budget deficit is on the same level (+\-)Step 2 Decreasing the GDP growthStep 3 Increasing the Government & Guaranteed Debt. As result
increasing the interest paymentsStep 4 Large increasing the External DebtStep 5 High ratio of the External Debt and GDPStep 6 Decreasing the NBU reservesStep 7 Increasing balance of payments deficitStep 8 The weak Ukrainian economy, big deficit of balance of
payments and EXCHANGE RATE CHANGING
The EuroMaidan, Russian aggression, financial speculations andcurrency panic are the additional factors that affect the UAH collapse, but THE MAIN 2 FACTORS ARE……
Why do we have bad financial performance in Ukraine?
1. Low efficiency of economy2. Huge corruption level
What should we do?
1. Stimulate Business Growth
2. Use the Georgia experience on corruption
Thank you for attention!
lynnyk.o(at)gmail.com