Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005 ECMWF medium range forecasts and products Model...

Forecast users meeting Reading, 15-17 June 2005

ECMWF medium range forecasts and products

Model changes (Medium Range)

Forecast performance

New products/ Future developments

F. Lalaurette, ECMWF, Met’Ops


Changes to the medium range forecasting system 29 June 2004: Cy28r2 (early delivery suite)

By shifting the 12h 4Dvar data assimilation window by 6h, and running an early additional, uncycled 6h 4Dvar, operational products are disseminated around 4h earlier without any noticeable impact on the forecast quality.

29 September 2004: Cycle 28r3

Revised convection scheme numerics and calling of the cloud scheme , use of tangent linear and adjoint of vertical diffusion in the 1st minimization of 4D-Var , Reduction of radiation frequency to 1 hour in the high-resolution forecasts , Improved numerics of surface tile coupling

New Radiative Tranfer code (RTTOV-8) , minor revisions to ATOVS and AIRS usage , assimilation of MSG clear-sky radiances, of GOES 9 BUFR AMVs and of SCIAMACHY ozone products from KNMI , Correct error in AMSU-B usage over land , Activate EARS data

Blacklist SYNOP humidity data at local night time , Increased use of radiosonde humidity: use RS90 to -80C, RS80 to -60C, other sensors to -40 C. Proper cycling of the assimilation of the wave altimeter and land surface data (FG moved from 00 and 12 UTC to 06 and 18 UTC)

EPS Gaussian sampling for extra-tropical singular vectors, instead of selection and rotation, revision of tropical cyclones (TC) perturbations (extension from 25 S 25 N to 40 S 40 N, orthogonalisation with respect to extra-tropical singular vectors, optimisation regions based on predicted TC tracks from previous EPS run)


Changes to the medium range forecasting system 7 October 2004

Monthly forecasts are run operationally on a weekly basis (Thursdays).

9 November 2004:

All four BC-project analyses use background fields generated from the latest operational 4D-var analysis

16 March 2005:

Tropical Cyclone tracks from the Deterministic and EPS forecasts are disseminated on the GTS in BUFR format;


Changes to the medium range forecasting system 5 April 2005: Cy29r1

New moist boundary layer scheme (more stratocumulus clouds in subtropical highs and more low level clouds in some extratropical winter conditions);

Wavelet formulation introduced in the representation of background error statistics (Jb), the tuning of which has been based on Data Assimilation ensemble runs;

Revised use of surface pressure observations: METAR are activated; all surface pressure data are subject to an adaptative bias correction; observation error are reduced; PAOB observations are not used any more;

MODIS winds from AQUA are activated (only TERRA before); AQUA winds observation error is reduced; 10 AIRS channels are blacklisted (pb strato. Humidity);

Bugfix in the first time step of the semi-Lagrangian treatment of the physics was fixed; snow cover tile coupling has been revised; a new dissipation source function has been introduced for the oceanic wave modelisation;

several technical implementation for the assimilation of rain, of GPS data and for the variational bias correction of satellite radiances introduced but not activated

Nonlinear Normal Mode Initialisation for the EPS has been discontinued.





Long term evolution

Winter performance

Tropical Cyclones and Heavy Rain




EPS spread/ Error

12UTCEurope Lat 35.0 to 75.0 Lon -12.5 to 42.5

500hPa GeopotentialTime series curves

MAR2005

APR MAY JUN0

20

40

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ENSTD T+24 Mean forecast



ENSMN T+24 Root mean square error forecast




EPS spread/ Error

12UTCN.hem Lat 20.0 to 90.0 Lon -180.0 to 180.0

500hPa GeopotentialTime series curves

MAR2005

APR MAY JUN0

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Time series (N.Extratropics)

N.HEM LAT 20.000 TO 90.000 LON -180.000 TO 180.000

ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST

500hPa GEOPOTENTIAL

ECMWF FORECAST VERIFICATION 12UTC

Forecast Day MA = 12 Month Moving Average

19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320044.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

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7.5

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SCORE REACHES 60.00

SCORE REACHES 60.00 MA


Time series (Europe)

EUROPE LAT 35.000 TO 75.000 LON -12.500 TO 42.500


500hPa GEOPOTENTIAL

ECMWF FORECAST VERIFICATION 12UTC

Forecast Day MA = 12 Month Moving Average

19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320044

5

6

7

8

9

10

SCORE REACHES 60.00

SCORE REACHES 60.00 MA


Winter 2005 vs 1998-2004 (Europe, Z500, ANC)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

0

20

40

60

80

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120

140

160MDATE = 20041201 TO 20050228

AREA=EUROPE TIME=12 MEAN OVER 90 CASES

ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST

500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL

FORECAST VERIFICATION 2004-20052003-20042002-20032001-20022000-20011999-20001998-19991997-1998

MAGICS 6.9.1 leda - mom Fri Mar 11 03:41:51 2005 Verify SCOCOM

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

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100%DATE = 20041201 TO 20050228

AREA=EUROPE TIME=12 MEAN OVER 90 CASES






Winter 2005 vs 1998-2004 (ET NH, Z500, ANC)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

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20

40

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140MDATE = 20041201 TO 20050228

AREA=N.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 90 CASES

ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST




0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

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100%DATE = 20041201 TO 20050228

AREA=N.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 90 CASES






Winter 2005 vs previous wintersT511 vs EPS Mean (Europe, T850, Day 7)

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

2005

Year

0%

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40%

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100%

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ANCF < -40%-40 to -10-10 to 1010 to 2020 to 3030 to 4040 to 5050 to 6060 to 7070 to 8080 to 90ANCF > 90 %

FORECAST VERIFICATION - EUROPE - OPERANCF T 850 Step 168 1201 - 0228

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

2005

Year

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30%

40%

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60%

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90%

100%

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ANCF < -40%-40 to -10-10 to 1010 to 2020 to 3030 to 4040 to 5050 to 6060 to 7070 to 8080 to 90ANCF > 90 %

FORECAST VERIFICATION - EUROPE - ENSMNANCF T 850 Step 168 1201 - 0228


Gains - ECMWF(Z500 cumulated skill – ref. is average from other centres)

09-08-200308-11-2003

08-02-200409-05-2004

08-08-200408-11-2004

07-02-200509-05-2005

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

24

72

120

Z 500 EUROPE OPER GAINS vs BRAKL WASHN OFFNB MONTL TLOUS TOKYO 20030610 - 20050609 (REF)


Gains - Exeter (Z500 cumulated skill – ref. is average from other centres)

09-08-200308-11-2003

08-02-200409-05-2004

08-08-200408-11-2004

07-02-200509-05-2005

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

24

72

120

Z 500 EUROPE EXETER GAINS vs OPER WASHN OFFNB MONTL TLOUS TOKYO 20030610 - 20050609 (REF)


Gains - NCEP(Z500 cumulated skill – ref. is average from other centres)

09-08-200308-11-2003

08-02-200409-05-2004

08-08-200408-11-2004

07-02-200509-05-2005

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

24

72

120

Z 500 EUROPE WASHN GAINS vs OPER BRAKL OFFNB MONTL TLOUS TOKYO 20030610 - 20050609 (REF)


Gains - DWD (Z500 cumulated skill – ref. is average from other centres)

09-08-200308-11-2003

08-02-200409-05-2004

08-08-200408-11-2004

07-02-200509-05-2005

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

24

72

120

Z 500 EUROPE OFFNB GAINS vs OPER BRAKL WASHN MONTL TLOUS TOKYO 20030610 - 20050609 (REF)


Predictability variations (courtesy M. Köhler and A. Ghelli)


Waves vs other centres (Courtesy J. Bidlot)

J97 a j o J98 a j o J99 a j o J00 a j o J01 a j o J02 a j o J03 a j o J04 a j o J05

months

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SI

(%)

SCATTER INDEX FOR W AVE HEIGHT (3 month running average (+-1))

ECMWF t+096ECMWF t+048ECMWF t+000

UKMO t+096UKMO t+048UKMO t+000

FNMOC t+096FNMOC t+048FNMOC t+000


New web pages (TCs)


2003-2004 TC history

F2003

M A M J J A S O N D J2004

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Period: 200301 to 200412Monthly distribution of TC forecasts. T511 at +0h

WMO Tropical Cyclone Regions01

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TC Verification 2004 (Atlantic ocean)

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

0

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98

147

Ca

ses

Sample Size

oper ctrl eps

Period: 2004080112 to 2004102900Tropical Cyclones: Atlantic Ocean

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

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200

300

400

500

km

Direct Position Error

oper ctrl eps

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

20

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hP

a

Core Pressure Error

oper ctrl eps

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

-50

-25

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km

Cross Track Error

oper ctrl eps

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

kmAlong Track Error

oper ctrl eps


TC Verification (2004, all basins)

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

484

726

968

Ca

ses

Sample Size

oper ctrl eps

Period: 2004010100 to 2004120600Tropical Cyclone Deterministic Verification

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

103

206

309

412

515

km


oper ctrl eps

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

12

18

24

30

36

hP

a

Core Pressure Error

oper ctrl eps

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

-17

0

17

34

51

km

Cross Track Error

oper ctrl eps

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

-220

-176

-132

-88

-44

kmAlong Track Error

oper ctrl eps


TC Verification (2003, all basins)

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

174

348

522

696

Ca

ses

Sample Size

oper ctrl eps

Period: 2003010612 to 2003123112Tropical Cyclone Deterministic Verification

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

121

242

363

484

605

km


oper ctrl eps

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

5

10

15

20

25

30

hP

a

Core Pressure Error

oper ctrl eps

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

-28

-14

0

14

28

42

km

Cross Track Error

oper ctrl eps

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120Step (hours)

-300

-240

-180

-120

-60

kmAlong Track Error

oper ctrl eps2004 vs 2003:•Reduced gap T255 vs T511•Except for pressure?


TC Probabilities verification

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Forecasted probability

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90

100

Observ

ed fre

quency

Reliability

0 20 40 60 80 1000

20

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100

August 2003 to October 2003 August 2004 to October 2004

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1FAR

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

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0.6

0.7

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PO

D

>=0%

>0%

>10%

>20%

>30%

>40%

>50%

>60%>70%

>80%>90%

Probability of detection vs. False alarm ratio

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

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1

August 2003 to October 2003 August 2004 to October 2004


Extreme Forecast Index Verification (1% extreme events defined with respect to EUMETNET/ECSN Climate Atlas of Europe data)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1False Alarm Rate

0

0.1

0.2

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0.5

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0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Pro

babi

lity

of D

etec

tion

ROC curvesEFI(Annual verification, Min=20mm or 20/100 th of Upper Monthly Quintile)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

6-30 54-78 102-126 ?

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1Probability of False Detection

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Pro

babi

lity

of D

etec

tion

Modified ROC curves

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

6-30 54-78 102-126 ?


Probability >20mm verification(1% extreme events defined with respect to EUMETNET/ECSN Climate Atlas of Europe data)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1False Alarm Rate

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Pro

babi

lity

of D

etec

tion

ROC curvesProb(Annual verification, Min=20mm or 20/100 th of Upper Monthly Quintile)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

36 72 120 ?

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1Probability of False Detection

0

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0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Pro

babi

lity

of D

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Modified ROC curves

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

36 72 120 ?


Verification summary

Outstanding performance from previous years is confirmed

Some problems with low level clouds

First steps in verifying Severe Weather forecasts

Tropical Cyclone forecasts have improved significantly last year

• Still core pressure is underestimated• Slow biais• Some over-confidence in Strike Probability Maps; useful guidance

First steps towards EFI verification have been taken








Seamless system

The planned merge at increased resolution of the EPS and Monthly forecast system in 2005/06 will mean some re-thinking () of the product generation

Unified EPSgrams

More “weather-related” monthly forecast maps

“Monthly-forecast-like” hindcasts for the medium-range


2003-2004 TC history

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Extended EPSgram (courtesy Mark Rodwell)


Extended EPSgram (courtesy Mark Rodwell)


New Monthly forecast maps (courtesy F. Grazzini)

L

L

5.0m/s - -

13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 25 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: 2 m et r e t em per at ur e/ Sur f : 10 m t r v

- -

13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 19 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height

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13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- r ange I ndicat or not yet im plem ent ed t + VT: 15 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion

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13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 19 Januar y 2005 500hPa geopot ent ial height

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13 Januar y 2005 5UTC ECM WF Tim e- range I ndicat or not yet im plement ed t + VT: 15 Januar y 2005 Sur f ace: sunshine dur at ion

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Day 5-11 Day 12-18


New Medium range Hindcasts (“à la Monthly”)

Running an additional EPS control suite in dynamical adaptation mode (48h forecast)

Initial conditions from ERA40 (1971-2000)

Use latest resolution/ physics

Same post-processing as for EPS (surface + a few pressure and PV levels)

Cost is only like adding six 10-days Control runs per day

Will allow a quick adaptation of the EFI to the increased EPS resolution in autumn, and an extension of the EFI (and other calibrated probabilistic products) to other parameters than rain, T2m and wind


New EPS Control climate (Reading, 15/1) (courtesy E. Zsóter)

-4 0 4 8 12 16 200

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

EPS forecast(black),2005.01.20 00 UTC; tstep=108hOld EPS climat (2003-2004-2005) is dashed bluecentered around the EPS forecast date (mmdd)

15=red, 31=blue days each year(1971-2000),New EPS climat with 1=yellow, 3=green, 7=orange,

READING

EPS Forecast

Current EPS climate

30-years 48h hindcasts (+/-15 days)


Global EFI maps


Tropical Cyclogenesis: 1) Karl

0° 0°

10°N10°N

20°N 20°N

30°N30°N

40°N 40°N

50°N50°N

70°W

70°W 60°W

60°W 50°W

50°W 40°W

40°W 30°W

30°W 20°W

20°W 10°W

10°W

CYCLONE LIFETIME : 20040916 TO 20040924OBSERVATION TRACKING FOR KARL (12L)

1 (TD) 2 (TS) 3 (STS) 4 (TYP/HUR)


Tropical Cyclogenesis: 1) Karl 1st strike probability map (17/9)

0

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°Wtracks: black=OPER, green=CTRL, blue=EPS numbers: observed positions at t+..hProbability that KARL will pass within 120km radius during the next 120 hours

20040917 12 UTC

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Tropical Cyclogenesis: 2) Karl D5 forecast Valid 1709 12UTC

H

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1016

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20°N20°N

40°W

40°W

OBSERVATION POSITION and STRENGTHSEVERE TROPICAL STORM KARL ( 12L ) Estimated Core Pressure 994 hPa

20040912 12UTC ECMWF FC t+120 VT: 20040917 12UTC Surf:msl/10v (Exp: 0001 )

1 (TD) 2 (TS) 3 (STS) 4 (TYP/HUR)


Tropical Cyclogenesis: 3) Karl “Feature tracking” (no seed, Hodges, 1994)

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

80°W

80°W 70°W

70°W 60°W

60°W 50°W

50°W 40°W

40°W 30°W

30°W 20°W

20°W 10°W

10°W 0°

0°

Cyclone 1, number of tracks: 17Extratropical Cyclone Tracking: 20040915 00UTC

244872

96120

144

168

192

216

240

Observation (24/9)


FRANCES (25/8-7/9)

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

90°W

90°W 80°W

80°W 70°W

70°W 60°W

60°W 50°W

50°W 40°W

40°W 30°W

30°W

CYCLONE LIFETIME : 20040825 TO 20040907OBSERVATION TRACKING FOR FRANCES (06L)

1 (TD) 2 (TS) 3 (STS) 4 (TYP/HUR)


Frances: 1st strike probability map (26/9)

-12

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W

tracks: black=OPER, green=CTRL, blue=EPS numbers: observed positions at t+..hProbability that FRANCES will pass within 120km radius during the next 120 hours

20040826 00 UTC

5

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Frances verification (D4 forecast)

H

L

L

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

40°W

40°W

OBSERVATION POSITION and STRENGTHTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES ( 06L ) Estimated Core Pressure 1005 hPa

20040822 00UTC ECMWF FC t+96 VT: 20040826 00UTC Surf:msl/10v (Exp: 0001 )

1 - 1.9 2 - 2.9 3 - 3.9 4 - 4.9


FRANCES Feature tracking

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

90°W

90°W 80°W

80°W 70°W

70°W 60°W

60°W 50°W

50°W 40°W

40°W 30°W

30°W

Cyclone 1, number of tracks: 17Extratropical Cyclone Tracking: 20040826 00UTC

24

48

7296

120144

168

192

216

240


And more…

Data monitoring

New verification package


[email protected]


[email protected](from 1.9.2005)


Date post:	27-Mar-2015
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