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Forecasting of employment in Russian interindustry model The Institute of Macroeconomic The Institute of Macroeconomic Forecasting Forecasting Mironova Elena 2008 2008
Forecasting of employment in Russian interindustry modelThe Institute of Macroeconomic ForecastingMironova Elena2008
The problem definitionThe growth of investment activity resulted in increase the production scale requiring the additive production resources,Total population declines resulted in reduction the population of working age, the basic state of formation the labor force supply, The labor force constrains could prevent further expansion of production potential, The problem can be solved by two ways: by increasing the labor productivity and by involving in production process unengaged labor force including foreign workers. The Institute of Macroeconomic Forecasting
The main foundation of workThe set of tools:Inter-industry model (CONTO)Dynamic inter-industry model (RIM)Quarter model (QUMMIR)
The set of data:The series of input-output tables in current and constant prices for 44 economic activities structure since 1980 to 2006The series of capital investment in constant pricesThe series of industrial employment
The Institute of Macroeconomic Forecasting
Model CONTO: the building of conforming forecast of the main macroeconomic characteristics to 2030. The calculation is performed on iterative procedures routing thought a process modified inter-industry model solution
Model QUMMIR: (hold the secondary function) the block of labor force and demography in inter-industry models was based upon the same in the quartermodel. Indeed the QUMMIR model allows to estimate the main elasticity and calculate the number of additional parameters using in CONTO compilationModel RIM (statistic base): calculation of the regressions for employment (in 44 economic activities structure)The Institute of Macroeconomic Forecasting
The main explanatory variablesProduction factors (endogenous)The industrial gross output values in constant pricesThe investment in fixed capital values in constant pricesThe relative industrial wages for employee The relative industrial prices
Demographic factors (exogenous)The population of working ageThe economically active population (labor force)
The Institute of Macroeconomic Forecasting
The example of the equation (the oil-extracting industry)emp2 = -2.06 + 0.03*poptrudT - 0.004*kv2emp2 the sector employment (mln. person),poptrudT the population of working age (mln. person),kv2 the investment in fixed capital value in constant prices (ths. rub.) SEE = 0.02 RSQ = 0.8568 RHO = -0.30 Obser = 9 from 1998.000SEE+1 = 0.01 RBSQ = 0.8091 DW = 2.60 DoFree = 6 to 2006.000MAPE = 3.83Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta0 emp2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.35 - - -1 intercept -2.06270 80.6 -5.85 6.98 1.002 poptrudT 0.02789 95.8 6.99 1.19 88.33 1.1593 kv2 -0.00014 8.9 -0.14 1.00 358.31 -0.297
The Institute of Macroeconomic Forecasting
The example of the equation (food industry)mp7 = 0.02*poptrudT + 0.09*out7_p 0.002*time 0.112*dum7emp7 the sector employment (mln. person),out7_p the industrial gross output value (ths. rub.),time the time variable,dum7 the dummy variable, has 1 in 1998. SEE = 0.03 RSQ = 0.9035 RHO = 0.07 Obser = 27 from 1980.000 SEE+1 = 0.03 RBSQ = 0.8860 DW = 1.86 DoFree = 22 to 2006.000 MAPE = 1.11 Variable name Reg-Coef Mexval Elas NorRes Mean Beta 0 emp7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1.60 - - - 1 poptrudT 0.01884 463.5 1.01 21.49 85.34 2 outR7_p 0.09269 8.6 0.06 16.44 0.97 0.203 3 dum7 -0.11219 23.7 -0.00 1.04 0.04 -0.240 5 time -0.00200 2.0 -0.02 1.00 13.00 -0.176The Institute of Macroeconomic Forecasting
The main exogenous variables (average annual index, mln. person)The Institute of Macroeconomic Forecasting
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