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Forecasting Workbench in PRMSTM
Master Production Schedule
Material Requirements Plan
Scheduling
Workbench
by
Production
Line
Work Order/
FPOMaintenance
Pick SlipPrint
Stage Request
Consolidated
Pick
SHOP
FLOOR
CONTROL
Soft BillMaintenance
Auto Allocation to
Lots
RMS/PresentVersion 3.4
A Product ofMXB - Managing the Business
100 N. Freeman RoadTucson, AZ 85748
(520) 886-5914www.ElectricEd.com
RMS/Teachkit PRMSTM Forecasting Workbench
Table of ContentsSample Agenda iAttendance Sheet iiForecasting Workbench Overview 1
What it Does 4Definitions 8
Forecasting Methods 15Forecasting Techniques 16
Simple Moving Average 18Exponential Smoothing 20Exponential Smoothing with Trend 22Exponential with Seasonality 24Exponential with Seasonality/Trend 26User Enter and Locked 28Focus ForecastingTM 30
This Year/Last Year Next Quarter 32Last Year Quarter = Next Quarter 34
Product Group Forecasting 36Four Methods of Safety Stock 40
Safety Stock Methods Compared 42Exception Reporting 44
Forecasting Product Configuration 47Forecasting Product Classifications 48Mass Parameter Maintenance 52
Forecasting Environments 55Single Plant 56Multi Plant 58DRP 60
VMI 9.0
62Forecast Transfer Program 64
File Transfer Structure 66Purchased Finished Goods 68
Simple Order Point 68Time Phased Order Point 68
Setting Up and Operations 71System Control 72Product Master Maintenance 84Warehouse Inventory Maintenance 86Seasonal Profiles 86
C MXB, 1998 Printed in the United States
All Rights ReservedPRMS is a trademark of Acacia Technologies, a division of Computer Associates Inc.
RMS/Teachkit PRMSTM Forecasting Workbench
Table of ContentsMass Parameter Maintenance 90Forecast Information Maintenance 102Forecast Profiles 116Creating the Calendar 118
Shop Calendar Maintenance 118Forecast Period Maintenance 118Generate Calendar 118Update Calendar (Holidays) 118Post Calendar Updates 120Print Calendar 120Calendar Inquiry 120
Entering Forecasts - Forecast Update 122
Forecasting Reports 125Forecasting Inquiries & Reports 126
Inquiries 126Seasonal Profiles Inquiry/Where Used 126Forecast Profiles Inquiry/Where Used 128Forecast Information Inquiry 128Time Phased Order Point Inquiry 130TPOP Calendar Inquiry 130Sales Forecasting Inquiry & Retrieval 132Product Group Explosion/Implosion 132Product Group Model Inquiry 134
Reports 134Forecast Performance Report 134Excess/No Move Inventory Report 136Forecast and Parameter Exception Report 136Forecast Explosion Report 138Forecast and Demand History Report 138Forecast Transfer Report 140Calendar Print 140
Period End 143Log Current Forecast to History 144Generate Forecast Parameters 146
Appendix 149Forecasting Files List iCreating Forecast Models and Structures ii
IM0100 Product Group Model iiiIM0120 Forecast Structure iiiIM0160 Model Propagation v
C MXB, 1998 Printed in the United States
All Rights ReservedPRMS is a trademark of Acacia Technologies, a division of Computer Associates Inc.
Sample Agenda
Day 1Morning
OverviewForecast Methods
Forecast TechniquesForecast Models and StructuresSafety Stock CalculationsException Reporting
AfternoonForecasting Product Configuration
Product ClassificationsMass Parameter Maintenance
Interfaces to DRP and MPS and other Environments
Day 2Morning
Setting UpRegular Maintenance
AfternoonReports and InquiriesMonth EndAdditional Subjects
Page i
Name (printed) Job Function Day 1 Day 4Day 3Day 2check (x)
Course Title
Course Dates
RMS/TeachkitForecasting Workbench
Page ii
Forecasting Workbench Overview
Master Production Schedule
Material Requirements Plan
Scheduling
Workbench
by
Production
Line
Work Order/
FPOMaintenance
Pick SlipPrint
Stage Request
Consolidated
Pick
SHOP
FLOOR
CONTROL
Soft BillMaintenance
Auto Allocation to
Lots
RMS/Teachkit
Page 1
AccountsReceivable
CustomerOrder
Processing
Master Production Scheduling
Material Requirements Planning
Shop FloorControl
Warehouse Replenishment
Orders
General
Ledger
Interface
RoughCut
CapacityPlanning
CapacityRequirements
Planning
MXB,2000
PlanningExecution
ForecastingWorkbench
DistributionRequirements
Planning
Vendor Managed Inventory9.0
Product Structure
ShopData
Purchasing/Receiving
AccountsPayable
Payroll/Human
ResourcesPhysical Inv./Cycle Count
QualityControl
InventoryControl
PRMS TM
PRMS is a trademark of interBiz, a division of Computer Associates, Int'l
Page 2
Forecasting Workbench
What it Does
Generates or Accepts Input for
Shipment Forecasts at the
Product/Warehouse LevelSPECIFICALLY, AN ESTIMATED SHIPMENT FORECAST
BY WAREHOUSE
How many warehouses do you ship from and should that impact theforecast in total?
BASIS FOR PROJECTIONS IS MONTHLY "DEMAND"FROM WAREHOUSE INVENTORY FILE (INWIP100)
Misses to Shipment Schedule will result in a lower base to calculatefuture forecasts
Calculates Safety Stock Values
ONE OF FOUR METHODS
Transfers Safety Stock and Forecasts to
MPS, DRP, VMI 9.0 or RequisitionEntry for execution
Provides Performance Reporting and
Exception Reporting for Process Management
Page 4
Forecasting Workbench
What it Does
End Item ManagementMULTIPLE FORECAST METHODS INCLUDING
SIMULATION
PRODUCT GROUPS FOR MANAGING FAMILIES AND
GEOGRAPHIC MODELS
CLASSICAL ORDER POINT AND TIME PHASED ORDER
POINTInterface to Requisition Entry (PO0010) forPurchased Finished Goods
Combined Item ManagementPLANNING AND TRACKING OF INDEPENDENT
PORTION OF COMBINED DEMAND
MULTIPLE SAFETY STOCKING METHODS
MASS PARAMETER MAINTENANCE TO SIMPLY
CONFIGURE CUSTOMER SERVICE GOALS
INTEGRATION TO MRP FOR COMBINED DEMAND
PLANNINGVia Auto Accept MPS
Page 6
Forecasting Workbench
Definitions
Primary Database File - IMSFP100
Suggested ForecastGenerated by the forecast month end
Not maintainable
Current ForecastAt beginning of month, the same as suggestedforecast
Maintainable
Management OverrideA quantity which may replace or be added to acurrent forecast to generate a resultant forecast
UA - User Add (+ or -)UR - User Replace
Management Override quantities are retained by the month endprocess
Resultant ForecastForecasted Demand
Current Forecast + User Add Management Override = Resultant
User Replace Management Override = Resultant
Page 8
Forecasting Workbench
Definitions
Mean Average Deviation (MAD)Measurement of Forecast Accuracy
Quantity Shipped / Forecast
Forecast/Actual Demand Period
450-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6
1275 500 925 11001025 15001500 150015001500150010001000
@MADSP Mean Absolute Deviation Smoothing
Assigns weight to previous period deviation
* Forecast - Sales( )
+
(System Control, Forecast Workbench Options)
Previous Period
.1 25
.1 100
2.5
90
(1 - )* Old Mad
92.5
MAD Defined
@MADSP Mean Absolute Deviation Smoothing
Page 10
Forecasting Workbench
Definitions
BiasMeasurement of Forecast Accuracy withConsideration for Positive and Negative Deviation
Negative Bias infers that Forecasts are less thanActual Orders
Tracking SignalHow well the forecast is tracking to Actual Orders
Between +1.0 and -1.00 is goodWarning Messages issued after +/- .55Tracking Signal = New Bias/New Mad
OutliersActual Demand outside acceptable minimum andmaximum quantities
Forecasting calculations and inventory parameters are not re-calculated. Forecast and parameters remain as previouslyestablished.
Limits established in System Control with aConstant (L)Upper Large Demand Quantity (LDQ) = Old Forecast+ (L * New MAD)Lower LDQ = Old Forecast - (L * New MAD)
Page 12
Forecasting Methods
Master Production Schedule
Material Requirements Plan
Scheduling
Workbench
by
Production
Line
Work Order/
FPOMaintenance
Pick SlipPrint
Stage Request
Consolidated
Pick
SHOP
FLOOR
CONTROL
Soft BillMaintenance
Auto Allocation to
Lots
RMS/Teachkit
Page 15
Forecasting Methods
Forecasting Techniques
Simple Moving AverageLAST "N" PERIODS / "N"
Exponential SmoothingWEIGHTED AVERAGE OF SALES TO FORECAST
Exponential with TrendSYSTEM CALCULATED LONG TERM OR PLANNER
SPECIFIED
Exponential with SeasonalityEXPONENTIAL WITH TREND AND SEASONALITY
User Entered and LockedROLLING 12
Focus ForecastingBASED ON BOOK FOCUS FORECASTING, BY BERNARD
SMITH
"BEST OF" STRATEGIES AS MEASURED BY LAST THREEPERIODS
Product Group ForecastingAPPLICATION OF TECHNIQUES TO "STRUCTURES"
Page 16
Forecasting Methods
Quantity Shipped / Forecast
Forecast/Actual Demand Period
450-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6
1275 500 925 11001025101710171017101710171017
500
1000
MXB, 1998
Simple Moving Average
(925 + 1100 + 1025) / 3 = 1017
# PERIODS USED DEFINED AT
PRODUCT/WAREHOUSE LEVEL (IM0007) OR SYSTEM
CONTROL (WCMANT-IMFCST)
Page 18
Forecasting Methods
Quantity Shipped / Forecast
Forecast/Actual Demand Period
450-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6
1275 500 925 110010251002
500
1000
MXB, 1998
Exponential Smoothing
Alpha = .10, old forecast = 1000
10021002100210021002
Forecast = (Alpha * Last Period Sales) + ((1-A) * Old Forecast)
(.10 * 1025) + (.9 * 1000) = 1002
PROVIDES BASE FOR TREND AND SEASONALITY
Page 20
Forecasting Methods
Quantity Shipped / Forecast
Forecast/Actual Demand Period
450-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6
1275 500 925 110010251102
500
1000
MXB, 1998
Exponential Smoothing w/Trend
Alpha = .10, old forecast = 1000, Trend = +100
12021302140215021602
Forecast = (Alpha * Last Period Sales) + ((1-A) * Old Forecast)
(.10 * 1025) + (.9 * 1000) = 1002
Page 22
Forecasting Methods
Quantity Shipped / Forecast
Forecast/Actual Demand Period
450-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6
1275 500 925 11001025 511
500
1000
MXB, 1998
Exponential Smoothing w/Seasonality
1453 571 105212521172
.51 1.45 .57 1.05 1.25 1.17
Pattern Value = Period Sales / ((Sum Sales by Period)/ # Periods)
Level = 1002 Profile = MXB
PROFILES OF PATTERNS MAY BE BASED ON
HISTORICAL OR USER DEFINED AND APPLIED TO
GROUP OR PRODUCT/WAREHOUSE
Page 24
Forecasting Methods
Quantity Shipped / Forecast
Forecast/Actual Demand Period
450-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6
1275 500 925 11001025 561
500
1000
MXB, 1998
Exponential Smoothing w/Seasonality & Trend
1503 621 110213021222
.51 1.45 .57 1.05 1.25 1.17
Trend = 50
Level = 1002 Profile = MXB
SEASONALITY IS FIRST CALCULATED, THEN TREND
APPLIED
Page 26
Forecasting Methods
Quantity Shipped / Forecast
Forecast/Actual Demand Period
450-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6
1275 500 925 11001025 1500
500
1000
MXB, 1998
User Entered & Locked
1500 1500150015001500
Period End Rolls Forecast into Current Periods
Page 28
Forecasting Methods
Focus ForecastingTM
Best of Three Provided StrategiesPAST THREE MONTHS AVERAGE DEMAND = NEXTTHREE MONTHS DEMAND
THIS YEAR/LAST YEAR NEXT QUARTER
LAST YEAR QUARTER AVERAGE = NEXT QUARTER
AVERAGE
User Defined Strategies may beProgrammed and Integrated
Focus Forecasting is a registered trademark of IBI exclusively licensed to Bernard T. Smith
Page 30
Forecasting Methods
This Year/Last Year Next Quarter
Last Year Demand
4501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1275 500 925 11001025 890 11001300 900 11501450
Last Year/This Year Change
500
1000
MXB, 1998
Next Quarter is Change from Last Year Previous Quarter and Last Quarter * Average of Last Quarter
Quantity Shipped
/ ForecastThis Year Demand
9251 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
11001025
2225 / 3050 = 1.37 (37%) 3050 / 3 = 1017 * 1.37
139313931393
Page 32
Forecasting Methods
Last Year Quarter = Next Quarter
Last Year Demand
4501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1275 500 925 11001025 890 11001300 900 11501450
Last Year Quarter = Next Quarter
500
1000
MXB, 1998
Next Quarter is Average of Last Year Last Quarter
Quantity Shipped
/ ForecastThis Year Demand
9251 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
11001025
2225 / 3 = 742
742 742 742
Page 34
Forecasting Methods
Product Group Forecasting
Grouping of Products According toProduct Line or Distribution Point
FORECASTS ARE ENTERED FOR THE "PARENT" AND
EXPLODED THROUGH AND BY THE PERCENTAGES OF
THE "CHILDREN"
Percentage Assignments cannot be greater than 100
Forecast ModelFORECAST STRUCTURE WITHOUT DESIGNATION OF
WAREHOUSEUsed to Propagate a Standard Forecast Structure toMultiple WarehousesMay or May Not Include PercentagesMay be Multi Level
Forecast StructureSTRUCTURE OF CHILDREN WITH PERCENTAGES AND
SPECIFIC FOR A WAREHOUSEMay be Multi Level
Page 36
Forecasting Methods
Product Group Forecasting
MXB, 1998
ForecastWhse
A
ForecastWhse
B
ForecastWhse
C
Product Family Product Family Product Family
Forecasting Model ManagementProduct Family
Product 1Product 2Product 3
Product Family Product 1Product 2Product 3
Product Family Product 1Product 2Product 3
Product Family Product 1Product 2Product 3
Product 1 20%Product 2 35%Product 3 45%
Product 1 65%Product 2 25%Product 3 10%
Product 1 50%Product 2 20%Product 3 30%
Forecast Structure Maintenance (IM0120)
(IM0100)
Model Propagation (IM0160)
FORECAST AND/OR PLANNING PARAMETER
MAINTENANCE AT STRUCTURE LEVEL OR
INDIVIDUAL PRODUCT/WAREHOUSE LEVEL
Page 38
Forecasting Methods
Four Methods of Safety Stock
Calculated and optionallytransferred for DRP, MPS or VMI9.0
Warehouse Inventory (INWIP100) or Product Master (MSPMP100)Safety Stock value is overwritten
% Fill Rate from StockFILL RATE SPECIFIED BY A, B, C CATEGORIZATION
SAFETY FACTOR MULTIPLIED BY MEAN AVERAGEDEVIATION
Specification of Safety Stock Level
Weeks of Supply
% of Demand During Lead TimeSPECIFIED IN VENDOR MASTER FILE
Page 40
Forecasting Methods
Safety Stock Methods Compared
Quantity Shipped / Forecast
/Actual Demand Forecast
450-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1
1275 500 925 11001025
Safety Stock Methods
1017
500
1000
MXB, 1998
Forecast = Simple Moving Average% Fill Rate = 98Weeks of Supply = 4% Demand Over Lead Time = 50% Lead Time = 20 Days
Safety Stock Method% fill rate
weeks supply
% demand
1017 5091072
Page 42
Forecasting Workbench
Exception Reporting
Forecast and Parameter ExceptionReport (IM0004)
Identifies the configuration of the drivers to the forecast and safetystock calculations including warnings for out of bounds conditions
TRACKING SIGNAL EXCEEDS +/-.55Run Selection
Warehouse, Product, Vendor
OutputWarehouse VendorProduct Forecasting ClassificationABC Safety Stock MethodTracking Signal MADPrevious Forecast Suggested ForecastDemand History Smoothing FactorsReorder Min Reorder MultTrend Profile
Working Document to Analyze andMaintain Forecasts
GENERATED AS RESULT OF MONTH END PROGRAMOption available to run without updating forecasts
Page 44
Forecasting Product Configuration
Master Production Schedule
Material Requirements Plan
Scheduling
Workbench
by
Production
Line
Work Order/
FPOMaintenance
Pick SlipPrint
Stage Request
Consolidated
Pick
SHOP
FLOOR
CONTROL
Soft BillMaintenance
Auto Allocation to
Lots
RMS/Teachkit
Page 47
Forecasting Workbench
Forecasting Product Classifications
System ControlledSYSTEM GENERATED FORECASTS AND INVENTORY
PLANNING PARAMETERSForecasts GeneratedEOQ, Order Point and Safety Stock are CalculatedForecast Performance is Calculated
Short & Long Term Trend, MAD, TrackingSignal, Large Demand Quantities
Planner ControlledSimple Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Only
INVENTORY PLANNING PARAMETERS ARE REVIEWEDAND ESTABLISHED BY PLANNER
P1Forecasts Calculated, Not UsedEOQ, Order Point, Safety Stock and Order QuantitySpecifiedForecast Performance is Calculated
Short & Long Term Trend, MAD, TrackingSignal, Large Demand Quantities
P2Exponential and Moving Average ForecastsCalculatedOrder Point and Order Quantity Specified in Weeksof SupplyForecast Performance is Calculated
Short & Long Term Trend, MAD, TrackingSignal, Large Demand Quantities
Page 48
Each one of our RMS/Teachkit courses and training presentations are available for your selection.Choose the full color, 'Present' format for self-review or your presentation document for the class throughyour projection system. If you would like to print student manuals, select '+ Print' format. In addition toreceiving the 'Present', you will receive an additional file specifically configured and optimized fortwo-sided student workbook production. Submit to your own laser printer or send outside. If you prefer,you can choose the 'Present' format only and order the student manuals from us! All our printing is crisp,laser printing, two-sided, soft bound and delivered on time 100% of the time.
Present + Print Present + Print
Education & Reference
General ManufacturingWelcome to PRMS 99.00 199.00 Product Definition 199.00 349.00
PRMS Overview 199.00 349.00 Manufacturing Planning 199.00 349.00
Version 9 Enhancements 99.00 199.00 Shop Floor Control 199.00 349.00
'Canned' Reports & Inquiries 99.00 199.00 Router Training 149.00 299.00
Distribution InventoryForecasting Workbench 149.00 299.00 Inventory Control 99.00 199.00
Customer Order Processing 199.00 349.00 Cycle Count & Phys. Inv. 99.00 199.00
Order Entry Training 149.00 299.00 Lot Control 99.00 199.00
RGA's & C/D Memos 149.00 299.00 FinancialReplenishment Orders 99.00 199.00 Standard Costing 149.00 299.00
Purchasing & Receiving 199.00 349.00 Accounts Payable 149.00 299.00
Online TutorialsThe Keyboard & PRMS 99.00 Navigating PRMS 99.00
Purchasing Overview 99.00 Requisition Processing 99.00
Measuring ExecutionPerformance 99.00
Contact us: [email protected] u.s.800-304-5914, 520-886-5914, fax 520-298-5525