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©2011 Dr. Nares Damrongchai 1
Foresight Activities in Thailand and the Asia-Pacific RegionDr. Nares DamrongchaiExecutive DirectorAPEC Center for Technology Foresight
@ The 4th International Conference on ForesightTokyo, 9 March 2011
Photograph from iStockphoto.com
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 2
APEC Member Economies
APEC Official Observers• Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat• Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC)• Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) © 2008 APEC Secretariat
1
Low-Carbon Society
Beyond 2050
Nares DamrongchaiAPEC Center for Technology Foresight
Futures of Low Carbon SocietyNares Damrongchai
Real-time Delphi
• 78 from 5 regions (Af, Am, As, Eu, Oc) invited
• 23-28 from 3 regions (28.2 - 35.9 %) answered
• Asia 21.8 - 26.9 %• Thailand 7-9 out of 23-28• Gender (male 15-19,
female 6-9)
5Photograph from iStockphoto.com
Futures of Low Carbon SocietyNares Damrongchai
Climate change and its impact
Migration, rural life, and natural resources
Society and health
Trade of goods and services
Housing, construction, urban life, transportation
http://www.lcs2050.com/
Participating member economies
1. Hong Kong, China2. Malaysia3. Korea4. Indonesia5. Philippines6. New Zealand7. Canada8. Japan9. Australia10. Vietnam11. Chinese Taipei12. Singapore13. China14. Russia15. Thailand16. United States
• Macao, China• United Kingdom• Germany
APEC
Non-APEC
2
ASEAN’s Future of Science, Technology, and Innovation: 2015 and Beyond
Source: World Bank, 2010
ASEA
N ASEAN’sKnowledgeEconomyIndex
No. of votes
Pre-workshop vote for prioritization
05
101520253035404550 47 46
39
29
1915 15
10
Krabi Initiative 2010:Science Technology and Innovation (STI) for a Competitive , Sustainable and Inclusive ASEAN
STI Enculturation
Public-Private Partnership
Platform
Bottom-of-the -Pyramid (BOP)
Focus
Youth-focused Innovation
STI for Green Society
Organisational restructure for a meaningful delivery of STI agenda in ASEAN
ASEAN Innovation for Global Market
Green Technology
Digital Economy, New Media & Social Network
Science and Innovation for Life
Biodiversity for Health & Wealth
Energy Security
Water Management
Food Security
Thematic Tracks
Develop mechanisms to pursue partnerships and cooperation with other stakeholders in STI
Paradigm Shifts
ASEAN 2015 – Vision of ASEAN Leaders
Rationale Roles of STI – A Balance between Competitiveness and Human Development (People-oriented STI)
Reinventing ASEAN Scientific Community for a Meaningful Delivery of STI Agenda in ASEAN
Courses of Action
Enhance ASEAN Plan of Action on S&T for 2012-2015 and leverage the recommendations of the Krabi Retreat for development of future APAST beyond 2015
Implement monitoring and evaluation mechanism for the implementation of STI thematic tracks
Source: National Science Technology and Innovation Policy Office - Thailand, December 2010
Krabi Initiative 2010
• Adopted by ASEAN’s Science Ministers in Krabi, Thailand on 17 December 2010• Set the basis for the region’s work plan from 2015- on science, technology and innovation (STI) for a competitive , sustainable and inclusive ASEAN
Photo from Flickr.comAll rights reserved by faha_ska
focusing on bottom-of-the-pyramid,youth, and green society
3
Future Innovative Cities in ASEAN
Urban Innovation:
• Urban hubs and local links (NESTA)
City, Innovation, and Sustainable Development
• Innovation and Cities (Johnson)
Economic geography of Innovation• Geography of Hi-tech firms (Maryann
Feldman)
Still these models are limited to
western, developed economies
No insight into many other aspects of
innovations in cities in developing
economies
But in reality, innovations are everywhere in
cities
The Project in a Nutshell
Jakarta, Indonesia
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Bangkok, Thailand
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Manila, Philippines
Singapore
Phase 1 PAST
Phase 2 Present
Phase 3 Future
Evolution of innovation system in Southeast
Asian context
City innovation system in the contemporary
Southeast Asian Megacities
City innovation foresight, paradigm and
policy development
Designing “City Innovation System”
CISIndividualSocial group
KnowledgeWisdom
SpaceCognitive
Physical
Information
Framework conditionsLegislation
From “OpenSpace” Workshop, Bangkok
From “OpenSpace” Workshop, Bangkok
From “OpenSpace” Workshop, Bangkok
4
APEC Center for Technology Foresight 22
Thailand in 2020
APEC Center for Technology Foresight 23
Traditional Thai Mackerel
Dynamic Mekong Shrimp
Violent Meat Soup
LessonsLearned
“People-to-people interaction is as important as the
analysis of data and patterns”
“Importance of proper
knowledge management
and capacity building”
“Different generations
respond differently to the future”
Informal and inclusive scenarios approach could be a potentially innovative and productive
The End