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FORESIGHT
Ashvin Parekh - Managing Partner, APAS
Season’s greetings, We have Ms. Chanda Kochhar – MD & CEO, ICICI Bank discussing the future of Indian banking. Due to substantial demographic advantage and a fresh emphasis on infrastructure and manufacturing the financial services will expand at a higher rate. Technology, intensified competition and regulations will play a key role in shaping the banking industry. We are thankful to Ms. Kochhar for providing her valuable insight for the newsletter readers. BFSI Vision and APAS have instituted CSR awards for the BFSI sector. Eminent jury members – Mr. A. K. Agarwala, Mr. Y. M. Deosthalee, Mr. Deepak Satwalekar, Dr. R. B. Barman, Mr. M. V. Nair, Mr. Sundar Rajan and Mr. M. V. Tanksale have evaluated the nominations. The awards are proposed to be given away to the winners on December 18th, 2014 by Smt. Rajashree Ji Birla at BSE Hall, Mumbai. On the macroeconomic front, the PMI index for services declined to 50.0 from 51.6 in the previous month. IIP during the month decreased by 1.4%. On an annualized basis consumer durables and capital goods decreased by 15% and 11.3% respectively. Inflation indicators suggest an appreciable mellow down. The CPI was at 6.46% and WPI declined sharply to 2.38%. Vegetables and food indices suggest a sharp reduction. In the insurance sector there were two noticeable matters during the month. The select committee of the Upper House (Rajya Sabha) is examining the possible consolidation of 4 public sector general insurance companies. In the investment guidelines for the insurance companies, equity derivatives may find a place soon.
We welcome your inputs and thoughts and encourage you to share them with us.
Ashvin Parekh
Volume No. 10 October 2014
May, 2014 December 2, 2013
Table of Contents
Guest’s Column
The Future of Indian Banking by
Ms. Chanda Kochhar – MD & CEO
– ICICI Bank
Economy
PMI update – Oct
Core sector update – Sep
IIP update – Aug
Inflation update – Aug
Insurance Sector
House panel looking at merger
proposal of 4 PSU insurers
Irda Panel Favors 49% FDI in
Insurance Intermediaries
IRDA looking to allow insurers
to deal with equity derivatives
Capital Markets
FPIs Can Invest in 1-Year Gov.
Bonds under $5-Billion Limit
Infrastructure Sector
Asian Nations launch $100 bn Infrastructure Bank
Smart City project to be developed under PPP model
Capital Market - Snapshot Economic Data Snapshot
Contact Us 022-6789 1000
www.ap-as.com
The Future of Indian Banking
Ms. Chanda Kochhar – MD & CEO – ICICI Bank
The last two decades have been a period of
phenomenal growth for Indian banking.
Financial intermediation by the banking sector
has deepened manifold. Credit as a proportion
of GDP grew from around 20-25% during the
1990s to 53% in fiscal 2014. Bank deposits
similarly grew from 33% of GDP in 1990 to 68%
in fiscal 2014. The key drivers of this rapid
growth were: India’s demographic profile & the
aspirations of the consuming class; increased
investment in the infrastructure & industrial
sectors; extensive use of technology; and
greater competition. This growth has taken
place under the purview of a prudent and
pro-active regulatory environment.
In the years ahead, these forces of change will
intensify and accelerate. The combination of
India’s fundamental strengths and a strong,
growth-oriented government will create
significant opportunities for banks.
India enjoys a demographic advantage
in terms of a young population and a
dependency ratio that is expected to
decline for the next three decades. The
expanding workforce, rising incomes
and increasing urbanization will give
rise to greater demand for financial
services.
India has vast potential for investment in
both infrastructure and manufacturing.
The infrastructure investment potential is
well-known, and with the right policy &
administrative environment, this
investment would be inherently viable as
it would meet an existing deficit rather
than just pump-prime the economy. The
national initiative to develop India as a
global manufacturing hub through the
“Make In India” campaign will create
further financing opportunities for banks,
as also indirectly support growth in
consumer lending through job creation.
Technology will continue to change
rapidly and adapting to the change has to
be a continuous effort for banks.
Technology is creating new platforms in
areas such as payments, and bringing
about the convergence of financial
services and social media. Greater
connectivity and digitization are giving
organizations the opportunity to improve
efficiency as well as enhance the
customer experience.
Competition in banking in India will
intensify, both through expansion of
existing players and the entry of new
players. The growth potential of the
market and the opportunity to create
new business models by leveraging
technology will attract new players to the
sector.
Regulation will continue to play a key role
in influencing the evolution of the sector,
with its emphasis on higher capital &
liquidity, early recognition & proactive
handling of asset quality stress and fair &
transparent dealings with customers.
Guest Column
To sum up, the potential for growth is vast and
the drivers of change are many. As Niall
Ferguson wrote in in his book, The Ascent of
Money: “there really is no such thing as ‘the
future’, singular. There are only multiple,
unforeseeable futures, which will never lose
their capacity to take us by surprise.” What we
do know is that there are exciting times ahead,
with diverse growth opportunities driven by
both investment & consumption, emerging new
business models driven by technology, greater
competition and an increasingly stringent
regulatory environment. Success will come to
those players who are able to anticipate change
and proactively leverage the opportunities it
brings with it.
PMI update – Oct
Service PMI
Growth in India’s dominant service industry
stalled last month as new orders came in at a
weaker pace, adding to pressure on the
government to drive through economic
reforms, a business survey showed last month.
The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI),
compiled by Markit, fell to 50 in October from
September’s 51.6, the lowest in six months and
right on the break-even point between growth
and contraction.
New business growth slowed a five-month low
but continued to expand at a modest pace.
Still PMI showed services firms were only able
to increase their prices a bit faster last month,
pointing to sluggish consumer demand. The
prices charged sub-index only nudged up to
50.7 from September’s near four-year low of
50.6.
Manufacturing PMI
India's manufacturing sector output picked up
modestly during October, driven by strong
demand conditions and rise in new order flows.
The headline HSBC India Purchasing Managers'
Index (PMI), a composite gauge designed to
give a single-figure snapshot of manufacturing
business conditions, rebounded from
September's nine-month low of 51.0 to 51.6 in
October. Amid reports of stronger demand,
production at Indian manufacturers rose for the
twelfth successive month in October.
Manufacturing activity picked up modestly amid
stronger output and new order flows,
particularly from overseas clients. New business
also increased for the twelfth month in a row in
October, largely owing to the general
improvements in demand situation. In addition,
export orders received by Indian manufacturers
rose in October, extending the current
sequence of growth to 13 months. However,
firms continued to trim purchases and refrained
from aggressive inventory accumulation, the
report said. On prices, it said that inflationary
pressures remained muted in October. While
input prices eased further, the improvement in
growth allowed firms to raise margins by
increasing output prices slightly.
Economy
Core Sector Update – Sep
Activity in India’s eight core sectors, as
measured the core index, increased 1.9%
year-over-year in the month of September.
Compared to this, the index had grown by 5.8%
in the previous month.
The eight sectors, which contribute about 38%
to the closely-watched index of industrial
production (IIP) data, are coal (weightage:
4.38%), crude (5.22%), natural gas (1.71%),
petroleum (5.94%), fertilizers (1.25%), steel
(6.68%), cement (2.41%) and electricity
(10.32%). Sectors that led the overall output
growth were coal (up 7.2%) and the
heavyweight electricity (up 3.8%), apart from
steel and cement (up 4% and 3.2%,
respectively). While activity in crude oil (-1.1%),
natural gas (-6.2%), petroleum (-2.5%) and
fertilizers (-11.6%). Output in all four sectors
had contracted in the previous month as well.
Index of Industrial Production (IIP) update – Aug
Sources: APAS BRT, IIP for July has been rvised down to 0.41
The index of industrial production (IIP) rose
0.4% in August, with both capital goods and
consumer goods logging negative growth. IIP for
July was also revised downwards to 0.41% from
the provisional estimates of 0.5% released in
September.
During the April-August period of 2014-15, IIP
grew at 2.8%, as against flat production in same
period in the previous fiscal.
According to the IIP data, manufacturing --
which constitutes over 75% of the index --
contracted by 1.4% in August, compared to
0.2% decline in output a year ago. For
April-August, the sector grew at 1.8%,
compared to 0.1% contraction in the year-ago
period.
The consumer goods output contracted by 6.9%
in August against 0.9% decline logged a year
ago. For April-August, the segment showed
contraction of 4.9%, compared to a decline of
1.6% in the same period of 2013-14.
The consumer durables segment declined by
15% in August, as against a dip of 8.3% a year
ago. For April-August, it declined 12.9% as
against a dip of 11.2% in the five month period
of last fiscal.
Consumer non-durable goods output too
declined by 0.9% in August, compared to 5.4%
growth in same month last year. During
April-August, the segment grew by 0.9%
compared to 6.8% growth in same period last
fiscal. Overall, 11 of the 22 industry groups in
manufacturing showed positive growth in
August.
The production of capital goods, a barometer of
demand, contracted by 11.3% in August, against
2% decline in same month of last year. The
mining sector grew by 2.6% in August against a
dip of 0.9% a year ago. Power generation,
however, increased by 12.9% in the month
under review compared to 7.2% growth a year
ago. Production of intermediate goods
expanded by just 0.3% in August, compared to
3.8% growth a year ago. Basic goods output
grew 9.6% in August against a growth of 0.9% a
year ago.
Inflation update – Sep
Consumer Price Index (CPI):
Sources: APAS BRT
Sources: APAS BRT
The consumer price inflation for the month of
September has declined to its all-time low of
6.46%, the lowest since India started computing
consumer price index (CPI) in January 2012, led
by lower food prices and fuel costs. The August
CPI inflation has been revised to 7.73% from
7.8%.
The food inflation trimmed down to 7.67%
against 9.42% month-on-month. The vegetable
price inflation lowered significantly to 8.59%
versus 15.15% from August.
The inflation data further revealed that retail
inflation was 6.34% in urban India and 6.68% in
rural parts of the country against 7.04% and
8.27% respectively in August.
Indian central bank, RBI has kept the interest
rates elevated to fight persistently high inflation
in the economy. RBI is targeting retail inflation
of 8% by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016.
Now since the inflation has declined sharply in
September and is likely to fall further in coming
months, it can make a case for RBI to soften the
interest rate regime, in its next monetary policy
on December 2nd.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI):
Inflation data based on Wholesale Price Index
(WPI) for September eased to 5-year low at
2.38 percent against 3.74% on a
month-on-month basis on lower food and fuel
prices.
Food inflation, which came in at 33-month low,
stood at 3.52% against 5.15%, while the fuel
and power group inflation came in at 1.33%
against 4.54% on a month-on-month basis.
Manufactured products inflation came in at
2.84% against 3.45%. The July WPI inflation has
been revised to 5.41% from 5.19%.
Sources: APAS BRT
House panel looking at merger proposal of 4 PSU insurers
The Select Committee of the Upper House
(Rajya Sabha), which is vetting the Insurance
Bill, is considering a proposal for the merger of
four PSU general insurance companies which
will enable them to consolidate their market
share and prevent them from becoming sick.
Several representations have already reached
the Committee and the finance ministry for the
merger of four PSU insurers.
Employee unions of the four companies — New
India Assurance, National Insurance, United
India Insurance and Oriental Insurance had met
finance minister and proposed a merger to form
a single general insurance behemoth to
strengthen their market share and become
more profitable. The four have a cumulative
asset base of over ₹ 1 lakh cr.
“With the opening of the market and entry of
private sector companies in non-life insurance
and the ensuing real competition, continuing
with the four PSUs appears meaningless. PSUs
are rapidly losing their market share, signaling
that the competition in the sector is in full
swing. In a decade’s time, the private sector has
captured over 40% market share. In sheer
desperation in the quest for top line (volume),
the four PSUs are in cut-throat competition
amongst themselves, trampling their overall
profitability,” said a former Member of
insurance regulator Irda. He added that they are
on their way to become sick if this trend
continues. “There is a strong case for merger of
the four and a chance for them to live”.
Currently, the general insurance market is
served by more than 20 private players. The
General Insurance Business (Nationalization)
Act can be amended to effect the merger.
When the general insurance industry was
nationalized in 1971, the four PSU companies
were set up to create some form of
competition.
“The cost saving in merging the
brick-and-mortar offices will be huge. Virtually
every state capital has an administrative office,
for each of the four. Merger will bring down the
administrative costs tremendously. Robust
computerization also will help. LIC is a case in
point,” the member added further.
IRDA Panel Favors 49% FDI in Insurance Intermediaries
An internal committee of the Insurance
Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA)
has recommended hiking foreign direct
investment (FDI) in all insurance sector
intermediaries like brokers, surveyors,
third-party administrators (TPAs) and web
aggregators to 49% from the current 26%.
According to reliable industry sources, the
panel, headed by joint director Suresh Mathur,
has submitted its report to chairman of
insurance sector regulator IRDA.
"FDI cap can be increased to 49% for the
intermediaries to begin with," an industry
source said. The report has also charted a
three-year roadmap to see how FDI can be
raised to 100% for intermediaries.
The report comes at a time when the Insurance
Amendment Bill, which seeks to increase FDI to
49% from 26%, is pending with the House select
committee. The committee is likely to submit its
report this month.
Insurance Sector
The 10-member sub-committee was formed by
chairman T S Vijayan in January to find out if the
hike in FDI be permitted for the sectoral
intermediaries to 100% from the current 26%.
At present, a foreign company cannot hold
more than 26% shares in an insurance
company. But, in case of insurance
intermediaries there is no such restriction.
There was also a consistent demand for
increasing the foreign shareholding in insurance
brokers from the existing limit of 26% to 100%.
The aforesaid proposed change would not
require any modification in the Insurance Act.
But, in case of increasing foreign shareholding
in an insurance intermediary like TPAs, the law
has to be amended.
IRDA looking to allow insurers to deal with equity derivatives
The Insurance Regulatory and Development
Authority (IRDA) is looking to allow insurance
companies to deal with equity derivatives. This
could be considered for unit-linked portfolios, in
particular.
IRDA has already allowed insurers to deal in
rupee interest rate derivatives, including
Forward Rate Agreements (FRAs), Interest Rate
Swaps (IRS) and Exchange Traded Interest Rate
Futures. The regulator had earlier said
participants could undertake different types of
plain vanilla FRAs or IRS. IRS having
explicit/implicit option features are prohibited.
The regulator may also look at Real Estate
Investment Trusts (REITs) and if it is viable, they
might discuss with markets regulator Security
and Exchanges Board of India to see if this could
be used as an investment opportunity by
insurers. REITs are expected enable easier
access to funds for cash-strapped real estate
players.
On the risk management and mitigation front,
the regulator was studying the catastrophe or
cat bond market to see if such an instrument
would have investor appetite in India.
Catastrophe bonds are used to fund claims after
a catastrophic incident. These bonds help
re-insurers transfer the financial risk of a
devastation in a year to investors.
India's sole re-insurer General Insurance
Corporation of India is also actively looking at
CAT bonds and their viability. Industry players
say a combination of Indian rupee and US dollar
denomination would be the best-suited model.
FPIs Can Invest in 1-Year Government Bonds under $5-Billion Limit
The Securities and Exchange Board of India
(Sebi) on Oct 9th said long-term foreign portfolio
investors (FPIs) such as sovereign wealth and
foreign central banks can invest in government
bonds having a minimum residual maturity of
one year within $5 billion category.
"...all investments by long-term FPIs (sovereign
wealth funds, multilateral agencies, endowment
funds, insurance and pension funds and foreign
central banks) in the $5 billion government debt
limit shall continue to be made in government
bonds having a minimum residual maturity of
one year," the market regulator said in a
circular.
Capital Markets
Sebi had in July tweaked the investment limits
for FPIs in government securities by increasing
the threshold for general investors from $20
billion to $25 billion. At the same time, it has
reduced sub-limit for longer time FPIs such as
sovereign funds by $5 billion as there was less
demand in this category. The overall cap remain
unchanged at $30 billion. The previous cap of
$10 billion had been utilized by only about 20%
in this category. The $20 billion limit for general
FPIs has been always fully exhausted. FPIs are
allowed to invest in the $25 billion government
debt limit till the overall investment reaches
90% after which the auction mechanism can be
initiated for allocation of the remaining limits.
The debt auction quotas give overseas investors
the right to invest in debt up to the limit
purchased.
Earlier this year, the limit for long-term
investors for investment in government
securities was raised from $5 billion to $10
billion within the total limit of $30 billion
available to them.
Asian Nations launch $100 bn Infrastructure Bank
India along with 20 other countries on Oct 24th
signed an agreement to become founding
members of the China-backed Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to aid the
infrastructure development in the Asian region
and reduce the dependence on
Western-dominated World Bank and IMF.
Usha Titus, a joint secretary at the economic
affairs division of the Ministry of Finance,
signed the MoU on behalf of India at a
ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in
Beijing. China's Vice Finance Minister Jin Liqun,
who was also the former Vice-President of the
Asian Development Bank, has been appointed
as the Secretary General of AIIB.
The bank, to be headquartered in Beijing, is
expected to be operational by next year. The
MoU specifies that the authorized capital of
AIIB is $100 billion and the initial subscribed
capital is expected to be around $50 billion.
The paid-in ratio will be 20%. Voting rights are
to be decided after consultations among the
members over fixing the bench marks which
were expected to be combination of GDP and
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).
Based on this formula, India will be second
largest shareholder of the bank after China.
Elaborating on decision to participate in AIIB,
Titus said India's view is that the new bank
provides rich resource capital base for
infrastructure financing, which is good for the
regional development. Chinese Foreign Ministry
spokesperson Hua Chua Chunying welcomed
India's participation in new bank.
China regards India's support as a major boost
to the bank's formation which was largely seen
as an effort to enlarge funding for the Asian
countries reducing the dependence on ADB and
other Western-dominated global financial
institutions like World Bank and IMF.
China was keen about India's participation and
an invitation in this regard was extended by
Chinese President Xi Jinping during his first
meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on
the sidelines of BRICS summit in Brazil in July.
Infrastructure Sector
The AIIB is in addition to the BRICS (Brazil,
Russia, India, China and South Africa)
Development Bank formed this year, which will
be based in Shanghai. It is set to commence its
operations with an Indian as its President.
Besides India and China, other AIIB members
are Vietnam, Uzbekistan, Thailand, Sri Lanka,
Singapore, Qatar, Oman, the Philippines,
Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia,
Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Lao PDR, Malaysia,
Mongolia and Myanmar.
The IMF and the World Bank are accused by
many countries of leading policies that do not
serve economic interests of Asian, African and
Latin American countries. Many also see them
as institutions serving Western policies. In a
speech to delegates after the inauguration, the
Chinese president said the AIIB's operation
needs to follow multilateral rules and
procedures.
"We have also to learn from the World Bank
and the Asian Development Bank and other
existing multilateral development institutions in
their good practices and useful experiences," Xi
said.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) President
Takehiko Nakao, who was in Beijing, said he did
not think the AIIB was a threat to the ADB's
role.
China has a 6.5% stake in the ADB, while the US
and Japan have about 15.6% each. The ADB,
created in 1966, offers grants and
below-market interest rates on loans to lower
to middle-income countries. At the end of 2013,
its lending amounted to $21.02 billion, including
co-financing with other development partners.
According to a joint study by the ADB and Asian
Development Bank Institute, the infrastructure
finance gap in Asia alone is somewhere in the
range of $8 trillion for the next decade.
In India itself current requirement for
infrastructure development is estimated to be
over $1 trillion.
Smart City project to be developed under PPP model
Government has said its ambitious Smart City
project will be developed with active private
participation and some hilly regions will be part
of the scheme.
New government's first budget has announced
a mega project of developing 100 smart cities
with modern amenities over the years.
Banking on private investment, the project will
be executed in PPP model and the government
will contribute as viable gap funding (VGF) for
the project.
Greenfield projects are new factories, power
plants or airports which are built from scratch
while facilities which are modified or upgraded
are called Brownfield projects.
Smart City entails facilities like continuous
water supply, modern sewerage system, solid
waste management and infrastructure
development among other advanced facilities.
The total estimate of investment requirements
for providing these services is estimated to be
around ₹7.5 lakh cr. over 20 years which means
it requires ₹35,000 cr. in a year.
Urban local bodies (ULB) are also being asked to
introduce reforms to generate additional
revenue to be part of the Smart City project.
The key headline indices Nify and BSE Sensex
had witnessed heavy selling pressure around
previous expiry cycle, due to fear of declining
global liquidity and same was contunied with
the start of october expiry cycle for the similar
reasons and dissapointing August-IIP numbers.
Sources: BSE, APAS Business Research Team
Nifty went down to as low as 7748 but bounced
backed since mid october as 7750 has been a
very strong support for the index.
Sources: NSE, APAS Business Research Team
Federal Reserve of the US has concluded their
bond buying program which would certainly put
a brake on easy money from the country.
However assessing at the situation europe it is
clear that European Central Bank (ECB) would
contunue its current stumulus program and
would take more measures to stimulate the
european economy further. Recent stimulas
announced by the Japan is also going to
contribute the global liquidity position. Thus
offsetting the withdral of bond buying program
of Fed.
Yields on the 10 year benchmark gilt has been
fallen consistantly during the month on
expectation of a cut in interest rate by the
central bank due to easing inflation.
Sources: APAS Business Research Team
The vilatitlity traded around 13 as key headline
indices traded in a narrow range for most part
of the month except near the expiry as they
gained significant momentum and headed
towards their all time high.
Sources: NSE, APAS Business Research Team
Falling crude oil is the biggest boon for India at
this point of time as crude imports make a large
sum of country’s import bill and also a
significant contributor to the inflation both
directly and indirectly. Thefore a substantial
amount of fall was winessed in inflation in the
month’s print. Overall this would keep the
Current Account Defict (CAD) well within the
grip and may help the government to meet its
fiscal deficti target of 4.1% for the financial
year.
Sources: APAS Business Research Team
Capital Market Snapshot
Evaluation of Performance of Global Assets Classes and BRICS Nations
It is evident from the table below that equity as
asset class has outperformed the other asset
classes under current scenario. Accommodative
monetary policies in the US, Europe, UK and
Japan has infused significant liquidity that has
improved the risk taking ability of the investor
and they shifted their investment allocation
from safe asset classes (as, Gold, US treasury
bills, USD) to equities.
Sources: APAS Business Research Team
Global equity indices have be buoyed due to
accommodative policies to stimulate the
respective economies. Largely this liquidity has
found place in equities of emerging markets in
search of better yield. Indian equities have
performed far better than other countries in
the world as well as asset classes.
Sources: APAS Business Research Team
Currencies of most of the emerging economies
have weakened against the US Dollar owing to
significant recovery in the US and internal
macroeconomic issues in these economies. This
has deteriorated their current account balance
and fiscal situation and put further pressure on
their currencies. South Africa and Brazil are
worst affected among the BRICS nations.
Brazilian economic situation has been
worsening for time as its GDP has been
declining, industrial production has been
disappointing, interest rate in the economy is
very high, and inflation is rising.
Growth of the Russian economy has been
largely affected by the geopolitical situation.
Key indicators such as business cycle, money
supply, loans growth, exports, new orders, and
fixed assets investments forecast a slowdown in
Chinese economy.
Problems of India are lesser than other BRICS
nations. Its GDP is showing strength, Current
Account Deficit is well within its grip, exports
are improving and fiscal deficit target is
achievable. Thus Indian currency most probably
will remain stable in comparison to other
emerging nations.
Inflation in India has started declining
significantly which can prompt the central bank
to cut the interest rate and fuel the growth.
Indian being the net-commodity-importer
country is the biggest beneficiary of falling
global commodity prices.
Sources: APAS Business Research Team
Countries GDP CPI Current Account
Balance Budget Balance
Interest Rates
Latest 2014* 2015* Latest 2014* % of GDP, 2014* % of GDP, 2014* (10YGov), Latest
Brazil -0.9 Q2 0.4 1.4 6.7 Sep 6.3 -3.6 -3.9 12.4
Russia 0.8 Q2 0.4 0.6 8.0 Sep 7.5 2.6 0.4 10.1
India 5.7 Q2 6.0 6.5 6.5 Sep 8.0 -2.0 -4.9 8.32
China 7.3 Q3 7.3 7.0 1.6 Sep 2.1 2.0 -2.9 3.57^
S Africa 1.0 Q2 1.6 2.9 5.9 Sep 6.0 -5.2 -4.4 7.67
USA 2.6 Q2 2.2 3.0 1.7 Sep 1.8 -2.5 -2.8 2.35
Canada 2.5 Q2 2.3 2.5 2.0 Sep 1.9 -2.6 -2.4 2.06
Mexico 1.6 Q2 2.3 3.6 4.2 Sep 3.8 -1.7 -3.6 5.78
Euro Area 0.8 Q2 0.8 1.3 0.3 Sep 0.6 2.3 -2.6 0.90
Germany 1.3 Q2 1.5 1.7 0.8 Sep 1.0 6.8 0.4 0.90
Britain 3.0 Q3 3.1 2.7 1.2 Sep 1.7 -4.2 -4.5 2.54
Australia 3.1 Q2 3.0 2.8 2.3 Q3 2.6 -2.5 -1.9 3.30
Indonesia 5.1 Q2 5.2 5.6 4.5 Sep 6.3 -3.0 -2.4 Na
Malaysia 6.4 Q2 6.0 5.4 2.6 Sep 3.1 5.7 -3.5 3.82
Singapore 2.4 Q3 3.5 3.9 0.6 Sep 1.5 20.2 0.5 2.28
S Korea 3.2 Q3 3.5 3.5 1.1 Sep 1.5 5.5 0.5 2.71
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warranty with respect to the sufficiency, accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of the information set
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