Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR)

Foresight for ‘Beyond business as usual’

Team D:Alessandro Pinheiro (Brazil)Simone Ehrenberg-Silies (Germany)Annelie Eriksson Helmersdotter (Sweden)Kil Woo Lee (South Korea)

Pacific EgdeHigh fertility, low economic growth

• High unemployment, Low GDP, government budget constraints

• Less resources for S&T, education, health care etc. • Infant mortality is high, tensely situation for childrens

health, greater demand for childrens healthcare• Social tensions, possible segregation in society, • Low environment protection• Xenophopbia, emphasis on security• Constraints on cultural values, i.e. Family living• Demand for creativity & flexibility in policy making.• Data protection not yet thoroughly discussed

Illustration of the scenario, Peter 49, Hampsted

• High income, CEO, • Single, gated community, depressive• Gets medical treatment by travelling to different

countries• Uses private healthcare• Easyjet offering flights to bring rich people to places

which offers treatment they want Peter does not rely on NHS

Wang 46 and Lisa 42, children Bob and Sarah, Manchester

• Middleclass, Wang and Lisa are divorce, Allowance to Lisa

• Wang is engineer, working for a construction company, spends most of his time at the desk

• Wang is afraid of unemployment, there fore he is suffering from high blood pressure

• No time for excersise, problems with obesity• High expenses for childrens education (private schools) Wang needs personlized prevention to avaoid costs of

real severe deseases like heart deseases, diabetes etc

Nora, 35, unemployed, 5 children, Newcastle

• Single, teenage mother, previously loosing two other children due general state of health, no regular contact with hospital care

• Can not afford nursery• Many children deseases (pandemias are common)• Pandemias also threat to adults

Wang needs personlized prevention to avaoid costs of real severe deseases like heart deseases, diabetes etc

Recommendations

Personalized prevention to deal with infant mortality (different risk groups exists), varying according to income, type of occupation, diet

More knowledge on children diseases and their effects on adults should be accumulated right now

Plans to deal with pandemias should be developed More medicine products designed for children Concentrate research on medicines’ effect on children Special personalized prevention programs for children

with a strong social dimension

Core recommendations

• Carefulness about personlized medicine based on genetic data banks

• Need for investment in childrens health research

• Personlized prevention

Model – an overview

Growth of populationGrowth of population

Science & technologyScience &

technology

Demography

Individuals mobility

Individuals mobility

EconomyEconomy

Social factorsSocial factors

Model – a more detailed picture

Growth of populationGrowth of population

Science & techniqueScience & technique

MortalityMortality

ImmigrationImmigrationGDP growthGDP growth

FertilityFertilityAgeingAgeing

Education Health

Welfare stateWelfare state

RegulationsRegulations

Climate changeClimate change

War & conflictsWar &

conflicts

Strong beliefs in religion

Strong beliefs in religion

EmmigrationEmmigration

How we got there

• UK never recovered from the Financial crisis in 2008

• Reasons: Britons in 2009 has 1/3 of the private debts of all EU citizens

• thus, it was not possible to push the economy by increasing private spending

• Effect: the UK became less and less attractive for highly skilled immigrant workers

• Immigration from other countries however continues or even increases because of the effects of climate change in Southern countries

• Because of the cultural background of immigrants the birth rate is quite high

• Because of the severe contraints on public spending there was never a chance of building up a genetic databank as a basis for personalised medicine

Methodology

1. Scanning2. Modelling3. Expert panels4. Stakeholder interaction5. SWOT6. Sceanarios

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33 4455

66

11

Black Swans

• Baby boom (frequent surveys)• Pandemia (WHO alert system)• War • Immigration boom • Emmigration booms (caused by i.e. natural

disaster)• Increase in terrorism activity

Drivers ranking

Most uncertain

EconomyEnvironment/social

OpennessFamily living

Ageing population

Most unpredictable

ScenariosEconomy

+

Economy-

Environment/fertility-

Environment/fertility+

A BB

CDD

DatacollectionS Diet, Choice of work /workplace, demography,

diseases etcstatistics, psychological and working life science

T Technical innovation, dispersion of techniques Innvation reserach and evaluations

E Production and/or demand for special health products, ageing society

? And statistics

E Chemical wasteNeed more resourcesEcological footpring

Innovation surveys, Interviews with experts,Document, research etc

P IP laws, labour policy Interviews with gov repr, government bills etc, statistics on working sectors

V Fear of discrimination, data protection Survey of individuals

Scenario B and DSenario B” Gold coast” Scenario D ”Pacific edge”

Increasing GDPDecreasing unemploymentMore tax for treasuryMore resources for S&TMore immigrationElderly populationEducation resourcesHigher energy consumptionImpact of pollution will increaseFamily values (individualism)Longevity

High unemplyment, Low GDP, goverrnment budget constraintsLess resources for S&T, education, healthcare etc. Infant mortality is high, Childrens health situation, childrens products, greater demand for childrens healthcareSocial tensions, possible segregation in society, Low environment protectionXenophopbia, emphasis on securityConstraints on cultural values, i.e. Family livingDemand for creativity & flexibility in policy making.