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FORESIGHTING THE C|A|S|E OF MOBILITY TO FUEL FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH CONNECTED AUTONOMOUS SHARED ELECTRIC
Alexandar Williams
Director, Future Economy
Department of Economic
Development
Govt. of Dubai
20 Oct 2021
Perspective of Dubai
Source: IMF, World Bank, GulfNews, Frost & Sullivan analysis
• Over 54% of the World’s population lives in cities,
expected to rise to 67% by 2050; urbanisation exceeds
80% in OECD countries
• More concentrated density
• Limited space
• Increased mobility demand
• Unbalanced Supply & Demand
• Drivers spend 50 hours per year in congestion which stifles the
economy of 1% of GDP
• 7 million lives are lost prematurely each year due to air quality; mobility is the largest sector contributor
• Unproductive time spend
• Inconvenience & high costs
• Opportunity for innovation in new
mobility services
• Private cars are utilised 4% of the
time and account for 29% of transport trips on average, but
account for 85% of our mobility expenditure
• Inconsistent Transport Provisions
• Multiple apps & fragmented markets
with several providers
• Fixed, inflexible routes
• Lack of information, integration &
user experience
Factors Impact To Mobility
• UAE is extremely urbanized with >
86% of population living in cities
• That makes cities like Dubai an
ideal test best for urban mobility
solutions
• >70% of trips in Dubai are made
using personal car.
• RTA has proactively launched
initiatives to diversify & integrate
transport modes
Urbanization
Travel Problems
Insufficient Solutions
Cities are faced with..
Leads to..
• Drivers spend around 80 hours in
traffic jams in Dubai per year
(compared to 50 hours in Abu
Dhabi)
DRIVERS SHAPING THE NEW MOBILITY ECONOMY
Pre - pandemic drivers were already shaping new types of mobility services globally.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
2
ECONOMICS OF
C.A.S.E
AUTONOMOUSDevelopment of the roadmap
to fully automated vehicles
CONNECTEDDevelopment of the next generation of
digitally connected car services
ELECTRICElectrification of vehicles (EVs) and
alternative powertrains
SHAREDRise of the Transport Sharing Economy
(
Source: KPMG Mobility 2030 analysis
The Economics of C.A.S.E : Global Revenues to Reach ~$1.8 Trillion by 2030
3
FIVE Key Emerging Themes .....
5G AND HIGH-
SPEED VEHICLE
CONNECTIVITY
1
(V2V/V2X)
MARKETPLACE
2
(on-route mobility
services)
FEATURES/
FUNCTIONS ON
DEMAND
3
(Customer
Personalization)
IOT PLATFORMS IN
VEHICLES
4
(V2V, V2X)
DATA IS
THE FUEL
5
(Monetization,
Cyber Security)
CONNECTED MOBILITYConnected mobility along with new technologies & a maturing infrastructure opening new avenues
Source: Frost & Sullivan 4
MO
BIL
ITY
SE
RIV
ICE
S
VE
HIC
LE
SE
RIV
ICE
SP
ER
IPH
ER
AL
SE
RIV
ICE
S
LO
GIS
TIC
S
SE
RIV
ICE
S
HUB-HUB GOODS
DELIVERY
Build, Own, Operate,
Maintain [BOOM]
PARKING
SERVICESREFUSE & RECOVERY
CURBSIDE
DELIVERY
ON DEMAND
FEAUTURE UPDATES
ON DEMAND/ USER
INSURANCE
AUTONOMOUS
TAXIS
VEHICLE DATA SERVICESAUTONOMOUS
SHUTTLES
AUTONOMOUS MONO
PODS
PREDICTIVE/AUTO
MAINTANENCE
Source: Frost & Sullivan
AUTONOMOUS MOBILITYAutonomous Driving Services will account for 65% of Overall Autonomous Market in 2030
5
3 2 0
309
1
421
16 8 10
465
289
1012
Traditional Carsharing P2P Carsharing Corporate Carsharing Rental & Leasing Dynamic Shuttle Taxi Services
2018 2030
• In 2021, Global shared mobility market potential estimated $251 billion• Revenue from the taxi cluster alone expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2030
Source: Frost & Sullivan
SHARING MOBILITY Shared Mobility Market Potential (In Bn) : 2018,2030
6
120 845 201 068
327 608
511 734
851 174
1 440 797
1 687 608
89 577
122 835 218 904
283 731 415 668
644 711
586 183
-
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
57,4%
42,6%
BEV PHEV
54.0%
68.9%
45.8%
59.2%
64.5%
8.8%
Y-o-Y Growth →
Key: FCEVs have been excluded in the pie chart.
69,0%
30,9%
67.3%
32,7%
59,9%
40.1%
62.1%
37,9%
64.3%
35.7%
210,422 323,903 546,512 795,465 1,266,842 2,085,508 2,273,791Total EV Sales
Share in PC
0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.5% 2.3% 2.9%
74.5%
25,7%
Un
it S
ales
Source: Frost & Sullivan
ELECTRIC MOBILITY Expanding Electric Vehicle Market: Historic EV Sales, Global, 2013–2019
BEV = Battery Electric VehiclesPHEV = Plug in Hybird Electric Vehicles 7
DIRECT EXPOSURE
INDIRECT EXPOSURE
LIMITED EXPOSURE
STRATEGIC
BEYOND COVID-19
RING = CAPEX INTENSIVE
BUBBLE SIZE = GDP
WO
RK
FOR
CE
CO
NTR
IBU
TIO
N
26.40%
7.20%
6.40%
9.20%
10.20%
12.30%
5.10%
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transport &Logistics
Financial Services (BSFI)
Manufac.
RealEstate
Accommodation & Food
1500K
1000K
500K
250K
100K
50K
25K
10k
0
Social Serv.
Education
Health
Mining
Agriculture
BFIS = Banking Financial & Insurance services Source: Dubai Economy, DSC
Construction
COVID 19: Dubai’s Priority Sectors Transport is second largest contributor to Dubai’s Economy and directly impacted by Covid
8
8
COVID 19: CHOICE OF TRASPORTATION MODEReducing risk of infection has become primary reason to chose a mode of transport today
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility 9
COVID 19: LASTING CHANGES ON MOBILITYRecent changes in mobility restrictions will have lasting repercussions
CUSTOMER PREFERENCES TECHNOLOGY REGULATION
New emphasis on safety and health: reducing risk of infection is now the top consideration when choosing transport; recent hygiene improvements in public
transit and shared mobility are viewed as effective.
Growing Micro-mobility: use of bicycles isexpected to increase 5 percentage
points, and shared micro-mobility isexpected to increase 3 percentage
points after the pandemic.
Rising Digital Sales: more than80 percent of car buyers use online
Sources.
Renewed focus on partnershipsand collaborations: the industry willcontinue to consolidate. More than
420 partnershipsconcluded in 2020 compared with110 in 2015 (major OEMs only)
Investments in innovation:investments in mobility startups
are accelerating; with about$45 billion invested in 2020
Emerging technologies: Urban-air mobility, 5G, and quantum
computing could transform mobility; thesoftware and electronics market isexpected to double in size by 2030
City redesign for alternative transportmodes: during the pandemic, many cities
announced new mobility regulations, such as the creation of bike lanes; more than 150 cities globally have restricted access for
private vehicles
Electric vehicle surge & Electric grid infrastructure: the European
Union has proposed raising CO2 targetsfrom the current 40 percent to
55 percent in 2030; California willban the sale of new cars with internal
combustion engines
10
C|A|S|E INVESTMENT: CONTINUED DURING THE PANDEMICCOVID-19 didn’t erase all other mobility disruptions. It just made investors choosier
51bnBy end of 2020**
39
11
C|A|S|E INVESTMENT: PARTNERSHIPS ARE GROWING MULTIFOLDSLast decade seen a 40-fold increase in CASE partnerships ( esp in electrification and shared)
Source: McKinsey Moves Database; press search 12
F
Source : McKenney Growth Analysis – Horizon Scan; CapitalIQ; Pitchbook;
INVESTMENT: REALITY CHECKInvestors have poured over US$330bn into more than 2,000 CASE mobility opportunities.
13
POLICY RESPONSES: LEVERAGING MOMENTUM TO NEW MODES Framing and enabling actions for sustainable, resilient and human-centric mobility systems
Source : Arthur D. Little Future of Mobility lab and UITP 14
GUIDANCE FOR DEVELOPING THE C|A|S|E ECONOMY
1 2 3
4 5
Review & Reform Continuously
Need to continuously review & reform the mobility sector with the evolving changes in technology and markets to ensure top mobility experiences.
Develop Test Bedding Capabilities for CASE
Develop Mobility test bed for CASE including production capabilities for selective high end manufacturing of automobile parts (e.g. sensors/semi-conductors) and be part of the OEM value chain
Restructure forEfficiency
Restructure the mobility sector to ensure efficient market (separate policy & regulatory control and market operations)
Develop Digital Mobility Transformation Map
Develop a mobility digital transformation map covering next –gen infrastructure, technology, datarization & valorization , skills/talent and new business models)
Develop Mobility Playbook
Develop a Mobility Playbook for building new SOPs, engagement with businesses & mobility users, governance of new market relationships with service providers, overall capabilities of mobility sector and next –gen tech partners end to end)
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