J. P. (Hamish) J. P. (Hamish) KimminsKimmins

Professor of Forest Ecology,Professor of Forest Ecology,

Canada Research Chair, Ecosystem Management Canada Research Chair, Ecosystem Management ModellingModelling,,

Department of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Forestry,

University of British Columbia,

Vancouver, B.C.

Forest Ecosystem ManagementForest Ecosystem Management

An Environmental necessity,An Environmental necessity,

but but

Is it a Practical Reality or Simply an Is it a Practical Reality or Simply an EcotopianEcotopian

Ideal?Ideal?

3 billion 3 billion

more more

peoplepeople

Population doubledPopulation doubled

Population peak: Population peak:

9 9 –– 10 billion in 10 billion in

20702070 --21002100

40 years40 years

3 3 -- 4 billion more 4 billion more

peoplepeople

People People –– the ultimate problemthe ultimate problem

Pogo: Pogo: ““We have been out and seen the enemy, and they are usWe have been out and seen the enemy, and they are us””

People Pressure: Some ExamplesPeople Pressure: Some Examples

ChinaChina

IndonesiaIndonesia

ThailandThailand

BrazilBrazil

AfricaAfrica

IndiaIndia

CanadaCanada

The TakeThe Take--home Message From My Talkhome Message From My Talk

�� Forest ecosystems are complex, but are frequently Forest ecosystems are complex, but are frequently

managed simplisticallymanaged simplistically

�� Management for individual values rarely sustains all Management for individual values rarely sustains all

valuesvalues

�� Forests should be managed as ecological systems Forests should be managed as ecological systems –– by by

ecosystem managementecosystem management

A problem is an issue that does not get solved.A problem is an issue that does not get solved.

An issue that gets solved quickly is not a problemAn issue that gets solved quickly is not a problem

Problem issues often persist because they are Problem issues often persist because they are

complex, but only simple solutions are offeredcomplex, but only simple solutions are offered

Success in managing forests requires that Success in managing forests requires that

the biological, physical and human social the biological, physical and human social

complexities be addressedcomplexities be addressed

William of William of OccamOccam::

Do not posit complexity more than necessary,Do not posit complexity more than necessary,

oror

As simple as possible, but as complex as necessaryAs simple as possible, but as complex as necessary

OccamOccam’’ss RasorRasor

Einstein:Einstein:

As simple as possible, but no simplerAs simple as possible, but no simpler

Forest Ecosystem ManagementForest Ecosystem Management

What is it and how do we achieve it?What is it and how do we achieve it?

•What is forestry and what is FEM?

• Elements of FEM

• Prerequisites for FEM

• FEM planning tools

�� Conclusions:Conclusions: Practical reality or Practical reality or ecotopiaecotopia??

ForestryForestry

The art (skill), practice, science and business The art (skill), practice, science and business

of managing forest stands and landscapes to of managing forest stands and landscapes to

sustain an ecologically possible and socially sustain an ecologically possible and socially

desirable balance of values over appropriate desirable balance of values over appropriate

spatial and time scalesspatial and time scales

The Two Responsibilities of ForestryThe Two Responsibilities of Forestry

1.1. To change the way in which a forest is managed as the To change the way in which a forest is managed as the

desired balance of values and environmental services desired balance of values and environmental services

from that forest changes.from that forest changes.

2.2. To reject current practices and resist proposed new To reject current practices and resist proposed new

practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and

sociology of the desired values and services over sociology of the desired values and services over

ecologically appropriate temporal and spatial scales.ecologically appropriate temporal and spatial scales.

How do we judge what is consistent with the How do we judge what is consistent with the

ecology of the values?ecology of the values?

Forestry is about peopleForestry is about people-- their values, needs and desirestheir values, needs and desires

It is also about sustaining the ecosystems on which It is also about sustaining the ecosystems on which

these values, needs and desires are dependentthese values, needs and desires are dependent

WoodWood

NonNon--wood productswood products

WaterWater

WildlifeWildlife

EmploymentEmployment

Economics Economics -- wealth creation wealth creation

Energy Energy -- fuelfuel

Spiritual valuesSpiritual values

Environmental protectionEnvironmental protection

AestheticsAesthetics

RecreationRecreation

Biological conservationBiological conservation

Ecosystem processesEcosystem processes

World urban population: World urban population:

32% in 1955; estimated that 32% in 1955; estimated that

it will be 60% in 2025it will be 60% in 2025

Cairo: >19 million by day

Shanghai: 17 million

Urbanization:Urbanization: it is it is

changing attitudes changing attitudes

towards, and values towards, and values

desired from, forests.desired from, forests.

So forestry must changeSo forestry must change

When people want cheap When people want cheap

wood and wealthwood and wealth

What is the What is the

relative relative

sustainability of sustainability of

these two these two

approaches? approaches?

IT DEPENDSIT DEPENDS

Timber exploitation Timber exploitation

–– high gradinghigh grading

Variable Variable

retention retention

harvestingharvesting

When people When people

want other valueswant other values

Partial harvestingPartial harvesting

Ecosystem Condition (Seral Stage)

TT

II

MM

EE

What is Forest Ecosystem Management?What is Forest Ecosystem Management?

•• Managing forests as ecosystems for multiple valuesManaging forests as ecosystems for multiple values

•• FocussingFocussing on what ecosystem structures and processes to maintainon what ecosystem structures and processes to maintain

•• Managing across spatial scalesManaging across spatial scales –– managing for both stand and managing for both stand and

landscape valueslandscape values

•• Accepting disturbance and change as a natural and necessary partAccepting disturbance and change as a natural and necessary part of of

forest ecosystemsforest ecosystems

•• Using different management practices in different types of Using different management practices in different types of

ecosystemecosystem

Elements of Forest Ecosystem ManagementElements of Forest Ecosystem Management

SustainabilitySustainability

Sound ecological understandingSound ecological understanding

Recognizes complexity and connectednessRecognizes complexity and connectedness

Dynamic character of ecosystemsDynamic character of ecosystems

Context and scaleContext and scale

Humans asHumans as ecosystem componentsecosystem components

Adaptability and accountabilityAdaptability and accountability

Prerequisites for Ecosystem ManagementPrerequisites for Ecosystem Management

Appropriate tenure systemsAppropriate tenure systems

Establish long term objectives Establish long term objectives –– a desired forest futurea desired forest future

Adequate inventoryAdequate inventory

Acceptance of the dynamic nature oAcceptance of the dynamic nature of forest ecosystemsf forest ecosystems

Basing FEM on the concept Basing FEM on the concept of of ecological rotationsecological rotations

Prerequisites for Ecosystem ManagementPrerequisites for Ecosystem Management

Appropriate tenure systemsAppropriate tenure systems

Establish long term objectives Establish long term objectives –– a desired forest futurea desired forest future

Adequate inventoryAdequate inventory

Acceptance of the dynamic nature oAcceptance of the dynamic nature of forest ecosystemsf forest ecosystems

Basing FEM on the concept Basing FEM on the concept of of ecological rotationsecological rotations

Economic sustainabilityEconomic sustainability

Use of ecologicallyUse of ecologically--based forest planning, communication and public based forest planning, communication and public

involvement toolsinvolvement tools

How to Evaluate Sustainability: The How to Evaluate Sustainability: The

Concept of Ecological RotationConcept of Ecological RotationEcosystem Condition

Ecosystem Condition

TimeTime

DisturbanceDisturbance

Short ecological rotationShort ecological rotation

Intermediate ecological rotation

Long ecological rotation

The Concept of Ecological RotationThe Concept of Ecological Rotation

Ecosystem Condition

Ecosystem Condition

TimeTime

1. Rotation too short1. Rotation too short

HarvestHarvestSustainable

Non-sustainable

The Concept of Ecological RotationThe Concept of Ecological Rotation

Ecosystem Condition

Ecosystem Condition

TimeTime

2. Ecosystem recovery too slow2. Ecosystem recovery too slow

HarvestHarvestSustainable

Non-sustainable

The Concept of Ecological RotationThe Concept of Ecological Rotation

Ecosystem Condition

Ecosystem Condition

TimeTime

3. Degree of disturbance too great 3. Degree of disturbance too great

HarvestHarvestSustainable

Non-sustainable

Ecosystem Management ModelsEcosystem Management Models

Necessary Planning, Communication and Necessary Planning, Communication and

DecisionDecision--support Toolssupport Tools

EcosystemEcosystem--based, multibased, multi--value hybrid simulation models as a value hybrid simulation models as a

necessary tool for:necessary tool for:

-- the assessment of ecosystem managementthe assessment of ecosystem management

-- assessment of Criteria and Indicators of sustainable forest manassessment of Criteria and Indicators of sustainable forest managementagement

-- scenario analysisscenario analysis

-- value tradeoff analysisvalue tradeoff analysis

-- communication to multiple stakeholderscommunication to multiple stakeholders

Paradigms for a Paradigms for a NewNew ForestryForestry

•• Ecosystem managementEcosystem management

•• Adaptive management and monitoringAdaptive management and monitoring

•• ZonationZonation

•• Variable retentionVariable retention

•• Emulation of natural disturbance or Emulation of natural disturbance or

natural range of variationnatural range of variation

•• ResultsResults--based based vs.vs. regulationregulation--basedbased

All All

needneed

forecastingforecasting

toolstools

Three Categories of Model In Three Categories of Model In

ForestryForestry

•Historical Bioassay - projection of the past

(experience) into the future

• Process simulation - knowledge-based

forecasting

• Hybrid simulation – combination of experience and

knowledge as the basis for prediction.

What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?

Stand level ecosystem management models:

AVIGATOR : FORECAST User InterfaceAVIGATOR : FORECAST User InterfaceNNFORECASTFORECAST

Non-spatial ecosystem

management stand model

Effect of Douglas-fir over-story on shrub biomass

Timber management table:

Stand-level Visualization

Dispersed retentionDispersed retention

Aggregated retentionAggregated retention

e.g. Variable retention e.g. Variable retention

designsdesigns

What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?

Stand level ecosystem management models:

FORCEEFORCEE

Spatially-explicit,

individual tree,

ecosystem

management model

What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?

Landscape level ecosystem management model:

LLEMSLLEMS

Local landscape

ecosystem

management model

for complex cut block

design – under

development

LLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator

Trees Ecotone Open

* Is this a clearcut?

* What will the future

forest species composition be?

* How will Douglas-fir

compete with western

hemlock?

* Will shade tolerant

hardwoods be able to grow?

What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?

Spatial, structural and functional complexity at the small to

medium-size watershed landscape scale, with polygon

(stand ) interactions

POSSIBLE FOREST

FUTURES:

Multiple value, watershed-

scale, forest landscape

management and

scenario analysis/ value

tradeoff model

POSSIBLE FOREST

FUTURES:

watershed landscape

management model

LLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator

Trees Ecotone Open

* Is this a clearcut?

* What will the future

forest species composition be?

* How will Douglas-fir

compete with western

hemlock?

* Will shade tolerant

hardwoods be able to grow?

LLEMS: complex

cutblock simulator

FORCEE:

Individual tree,

complex stand model

FORECASTFORECASTNon-spatial ecosystem

management stand model

Visualization

software – stand and

landscape

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: Modelling FrameworkModelling Framework

Merchantable Merchantable

VolumeVolume

Ecosystem C Ecosystem C

StorageStorage

Snags (>25cm Snags (>25cm dbhdbh))

Early Seral Shrub Early Seral Shrub

Cover (%)Cover (%)

ProjectionProjection InterpretationInterpretation

StandStand--level Modellevel Model

(FORECAST)(FORECAST)

ForestForest--level Timber Supply Modellevel Timber Supply Model

(ATLAS)(ATLAS)Wildlife Habitat Supply ModelWildlife Habitat Supply Model

((SimForSimFor))

Visualization Visualization

SoftwareSoftware

PolygonPolygon--

BasedBasedRasterRaster--

BasedBased

ATLAS: forest-level model

FORECAST: stand-level,

ecosystem management model

SIMFOR : wildlife

habitat model

VISUALIZATION:

stand & landscape level

POSSIBLE FOREST

FUTURES: watershed

landscape management

model

LLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator

Trees Ecotone Open

* Is this a clearcut?

* What will the future

forest species composition be?

* How will Douglas-fir

compete with western

hemlock?

* Will shade tolerant

hardwoods be able to grow?

LLEMS: complex

cutblock simulator

Overall System of Ecosystem Management ModelsOverall System of Ecosystem Management Models

FORCEE:

Individual tree,

complex stand model

Is FEM Possible?Is FEM Possible?

The Evolution of ForestryThe Evolution of Forestry

Sustainable Exploitation Sustainable Exploitation —— Passive Management Passive Management —— Active ManagementActive Management

Replaced byReplaced by

NonNon--sustainable exploitationsustainable exploitation

Leads toLeads to

Resource Resource

depletiondepletion

Administrative forestryAdministrative forestryVariable

results; often

single valueEvolves intoEvolves into

EcologicallyEcologically--based forestry, based forestry,

often initially timber biasedoften initially timber biased

Sustained Sustained

timber timber

productionproduction

Social forestry Social forestry –– ecologicallyecologically--based, based,

multimulti--value ecosystem management. value ecosystem management.

FOREST ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENTFOREST ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT

Application of social and biophysical Application of social and biophysical

sciences that respect the ecology sciences that respect the ecology

and sociology of desired valuesand sociology of desired values

Local people with Local people with

experienceexperience--based based

wisdomwisdom

NonNon--locals without locals without

local knowledgelocal knowledge

Pressure from Pressure from

ecologically ecologically

inappropriate inappropriate

belief systems belief systems

and incomplete and incomplete

knowledge about knowledge about

naturenature