Forest Governance for Multiple Benefits

Ashwini Chhatre University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Forests at the intersection of three global debates: Poverty, Biodiversity, and Climate Change

Tree Species Richness, Woody Biomass, and Forest-Based Livelihoods

114 forests in 11 countries

Latin America – Mexico, Bolivia, Guatemala (22 cases)

Sub-Saharan Africa – Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Madagascar (32 cases)

South Asia – Bhutan, Nepal, India (60 cases)

-20

24

-20

24

Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia Total

Tree Diversity Woody Biomass Local Livelihoods

Graphs by Region

Bivariate Distributions

Low levels of bivariate correlations

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24

Bas

al A

rea

-2 0 2 4Tree Diversity

Spearman's Rho = 0.31; p = 0.0006

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24

Tree

Div

ersi

ty

-2 0 2 4Local Livelihoods

Spearman's Rho = 0.15; p = 0.1009

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24

Loca

l Liv

elih

oods

-2 0 2 4Basal Area

Spearman's Rho = 0.02; p = 0.82

010

2030

40D

issi

mila

rity

Mea

sure

(L2;

Euc

lidia

n)

G1n=11

G2n=3

G3n=4

G4n=6

G5n=7

G6n=8

G7n=5

G8n=6

G9n=10

G10n=10

G11n=1

G12n=4

G13n=14

G14n=7

G15n=18

Dendrogram: Forest Benefit Clusters

Number of observations = 114 Statistic Value F(df1, df2) = F Prob>F -----------+-------------------------------------------------- Wilks' lambda 0.0554 12.0 283.4 46.85 0.0000 Pillai's trace 1.8113 12.0 327.0 41.52 0.0000 Lawley-Hotelling trace 5.1545 12.0 317.0 45.39 0.0000 Roy's largest root 2.5097 4.0 109.0 68.39 0.0000

Hierarchical Cluster Analysis

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24

Multiple Carbon Diversity Livelihoods Degraded Total

Subsistence Benefits Tree Species Richness Basal Area

Stan

dard

ized

Val

ues

Patterns of Benefits from Human-Dominated Forests

N=31 N=19 N=25 N=21 N=18 N=114

Avoiding Degraded Forests Relative Risk Ratios Carbon Forests Diversity Forests Livelihood

Forests Log of forest size 2.28 (.006)

Level of Rule Compliance

0.28 (.014)

Perceived strictness of access rules

0.28 (.027) 0.24 (.019)

Number of user groups

1.81 (.05)

Log of number of individuals

0.4 (.001)

Food self-consumption

0.8 (.003)

Distance to forest from habitation

0.15 (.001)

Promoting Forests with Multiple Benefits Relative Risk Ratios

Carbon Forests Diversity Forests

Livelihood Forests

Log of forest size 0.48 (.001) 0.64 (.013)

Rulemaking participation 0.29 (.039)

Management interventions

0.44 (.008)

Log of number of individuals

1.6 (.025) 0.64 (.024)

Number of subsistence benefits

0.68 (.004) 0.62 (.001) 0.74 (.01)

Distance to forest 3.7 (.038)

Future Directions

Multiple benefits produced simultaneously Patterns: Clusters of benefits in multiple dimensions Drivers: Process behind the patterns of clustering Designing interventions intelligently

Thank you for your attention!

Woody Biomass as Carbon Storage Basal area per hectare Calculated from all stems>32cm girth at 137cm from ground level Mean = 19.16 sq.m./ha; Median = 17.06 Four highest cases

– Bolivia (58.17) – Mexico (56. 62) – Bhutan (47.7) – Nepal (46.64)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4D

ensi

ty

0 20 40 60Basal Area (sq.m. per hectare)

Tree Species Richness

Non-parametric Chao-1 estimator Mean # of tree species = 38.81; Median # of tree species = 37.81 Three highest cases

– India (132 spp) – Bolivia (108 spp) – Madagascar (100 spp)

0.0

05.0

1.0

15D

ensi

ty

0 50 100 150Tree Species Richness

Contributions to Local Livelihoods Proportion of fodder, firewood, and timber requirements met from the forest (last 5 years)

Averaged across user groups; weighted by population

Mean = 41%; Median = 40%

Three cases with 100% contributions to local livelihoods (Bolivia, India)

Nine cases with no contributions (Mexico, Bolivia, Tanzania, Kenya, Nepal)

0.0

05.0

1.0

15.0

2D

ensi

ty

0 20 40 60 80 100Contributions to Local Livelihoods

Fodder

Firewood

Timber

0

50

100

0 50 100

0

50

100

0 50 100

0

50

100

0 50 100

Association with Known Drivers

-.11-.07-.07

-.01.26

-.02

.07.13.15

.06

.06.09

-.12.08

.16

.2.23

.43

.12.11

-.09

.02

.02-.23

.25-.11-.08

.41-.04

.13

-.15.22

.28

-.120

-.41

-.02.19

.11

.21-.21

-.06

-.11-.07-.06

.05.01

.06

-.4 -.2 0 .2 .4 -.4 -.2 0 .2 .4 -.4 -.2 0 .2 .4 -.4 -.2 0 .2 .4

Collective Action Frequency Commercial Value Distance to Admin Center Distance to Market

Food Self-consumption Forest Patch Size Grazing Intensity Level of Compliance

Management Interventions No. of Benefits No. of User Groups No. of Users

Rulemaking Participation State Ownership Strictness of Rules Years of Settlement

Tree Diversity Woody Biomass Local Livelihoods

Graphs by Factors Associated with Forest Outcomes

Spearman's Rank Correlation

Associations with Clusters

Demographic Factors

Sustainable Forests

Plantation Forests

Conservation Forests

Livelihood Forests

Degraded Forests

Number of user groups – – +ve -ve – Number of households – +ve -ve – – Number of individuals – +ve -ve – +ve

Demographic factors

Households vs. individuals

Possible effects on tree diversity and woody biomass

Multiple pathways of influence

Plantation vs. Conservation Forests Number of Households

0.1

.2.3

.4.5

Pre

dict

ed P

roba

bilit

y2 3 4 5 6 7

Log of Number of Households

Plantation Forests Conservation Forests

Sustainable Forests

Plantation Forests

Conservation Forests

Livelihood Forests

Degraded Forests

Level of compliance with rules – – -ve – – Participation in rulemaking – – – -ve – No. of management interventions +ve – -ve +ve – Strictness of rules for access to forest – – – – +ve

Associations with Clusters

Institutional Factors

Associations with Clusters

Socio-economic Factors

Sustainable Forests

Plantation Forests

Conservation Forests

Livelihood Forests

Degraded Forests

No. of subsistence benefits +ve – -ve – – Food self-consumption – – +ve -ve – Distance to forest from villages – +ve – -ve +ve Distance to admin. center – – +ve – -ve

MONETARY VALUATION

RELE

VAN

T S

CALE

G

loba

l Lo

cal

Easy Difficult

Firewood & fodder

Vegetation diversity

Carbon storage

Spiritual & Religious

Water quality

Endemic species

Recreation & Tourism

Flood & fire regulation

Erosion control

Wildlife corridors

Aesthetic values

Benefits from a Human-dominated Forest

MONETARY VALUATION

RELE

VAN

T S

CALE

G

loba

l Lo

cal

Easy Difficult

Firewood & fodder

Vegetation diversity

Carbon storage

Spiritual & Religious

Water quality

Endemic species

Recreation & Tourism

Flood & fire regulation

Erosion control

Wildlife corridors

Aesthetic values

Associations with Clusters Size of forest patches

Sustainable vs. Degraded Forests Plantation vs. Conservation Forests

0.1

.2.3

.4P

redi

cted

Pro

babi

lity

2 4 6 8 10Log of Forest Size

Sustainable Forests Degraded Forests0

.1.2

.3.4

.5P

redi

cted

Pro

babi

lity

2 4 6 8 10Log of Forest Size

Plantation Forests Conservation Forests

Plantation activity in the Forest in the last ten years

Spatial division of forests into management units

Other improvement activities: Thinning, weeding, fencing, etc.

Number of Different Management Interventions by Local Communities

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

Pre

dict

ed P

roba

bilit

ies

0 1 2 3No. of Management Interventions

Sustainable ForestsConservation ForestsLivelihood Forests

Factors associated with Sustainable Forests

1. The number of different subsistence benefits derived from the forest

2. The size of the forest patch

3. Number of different management interventions

0.2

.4.6

Pre

dict

ed P

roba

bilit

y-2 -1 0 1 2 3

Standardized ValuesNumber of Subsistence BenefitsLog of Forest SizeManagement Interventions

Sustainable Forests