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07-Feb-2019
Masco Corp. (MAS)
Q4 2018 Earnings Call
Masco Corp. (MAS) Q4 2018 Earnings Call
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CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
David Chaika Vice President, Treasurer & Investor Relations
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
OTHER PARTICIPANTS
Kenneth R. Zener KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.
Michael Jason Rehaut JPMorgan Securities LLC
Michael Wood Nomura Instinet
Scott Schrier Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.
Justin Andrew Speer Zelman & Associates
Nishu Sood Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Stephen Kim Evercore Group LLC
Michael Dahl RBC Capital Markets LLC
Matthew Bouley Barclays Capital, Inc.
Susan Maklari Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION SECTION
David Chaika Vice President, Treasurer & Investor Relations
FINANCIAL MEASURES ................................................................................................................................................................................................
Our statements will also include non-GAAP financial measures
Our references to operating profit and EPS will be as-adjusted, unless otherwise noted
We reconcile these adjusted measurements to GAAP in our earnings release and presentation slides,
which are available on our website under Investor Relations ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
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Q4 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS ................................................................................................................................................................................
Sales
Turning to slide 4, in Q4, our top line increased 11% excluding the impact of currency, driven by strong
growth in our North American plumbing operations, the benefit of our Kichler acquisition, and strong
growth in paint
o Excluding the impact of currency, acquisitions and divestitures, sales grew 5%
Operating Profit and Margins
Operating profit grew $58mm or 23% due to increased volume, continued cost control, and improved
price realization
o As a result, operating margins for the quarter expanded 150BPS to 15.4%
EPS and Share Repurchases
Our EPS increased 56% due to improved operating earnings, a lower tax rate, and lower share count
We repurchased 9.6mm shares for $300mm in the quarter, a significant increase in our repurchase
activity compared to prior quarters
We were pleased with our fourth quarter performance
FY2018 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS ...................................................................................................................................................................
Turning to slide 5, for the full year of 2018, we overcame significant inflation and delivered strong sales,
operating profit, and EPS growth for the full year
This growth was driven by solid consumer demand, healthy end markets, and our continued focus on
executing our growth and capital allocation strategies to deliver shareholder value
Sales
Sales for 2018 increased 9%
Excluding the impact of currency, acquisitions, and divestitures, sales grew 5%
This growth was driven by record sales years for five of our business units:
o Behr Paint
o Delta Faucet
o Hansgrohe
o Watkins Wellness
o And Liberty Hardware
Operating Profit and EPS
Operating profit grew 6% despite significant inflationary headwinds, demonstrating our ability to manage
our costs and successfully implement price to offset raw material and other inflation
EPS increased 29% in 2018 due to a lower tax rate of 25%, increased operating earnings, lower share
count, and lower interest expense
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SEGMENT HIGHLIGHTS ............................................................................................................................................................................................
Plumbing
Turning to our segments, Plumbing continued its strong performance in 2018
Delta gained share with its Brizo brand in showrooms, its opening price point Peerless brand at retail, and
we saw strength across all channels of distribution including:
o Wholesale
o Retail
o And e-commerce
Notably, Delta achieved a record year and successfully implemented a company-wide ERP system
Hansgrohe’s success was driven by growth in China and Germany, offsetting softer conditions in certain
other countries
Watkins, our leading spa business, had an outstanding year with strong performance in its core dealer
network and retail channel, and healthy sales of its aquatic fitness systems
Decorative Architectural Products
In our Decorative Architectural Products segment, the acquisition of Kichler Lighting early in the year
significantly increased sales
We’ve integrated Kichler into our Masco enterprise and we’ll continue to drive value in 2019 by leveraging
Kichler’s product portfolio with existing and new customers, realizing further operational improvements
and optimizing its brand and go-to-market capabilities
Our pro paint initiative grew high-single digits for the full year, and we continued to invest in this large
opportunity along with our partner, The Home Depot
o Pro paint now represents about 25% of our coatings revenue, and we expect to continue to drive
high-single digit growth in the pro paint market in 2019
In the DIY market, we are well-positioned with the leading brand, the highest quality products, and a great
team of people, and expect to continue to outgrow the DIY market in 2019
Cabinetry
Turning to Cabinetry, we returned to top line growth in 2018 with strong 7% growth excluding the
divestiture of Moores
Our repair and remodel cabinet business grew double digits in 2018, aided significantly by our new
program win with Menards
This growth, together with our business shift over the past several years, has resulted in 70% of our sales
in this segment now driven by the repair and remodel market, up from approximately 60% two years ago
Windows Business
In our Windows business, sales grew 1% for the full year excluding currency and our divestiture of Arrow
Fasteners
We achieved mid-single digit growth in our U.S. business, while our UK business was challenged with
lower demand
o We took action in the UK to restructure and right-size our operations during the year to match the
current level of demand
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CASH FLOW AND BALANCE SHEET SUMMARY ..........................................................................................................................
From an overall Masco perspective, our strong growth generated over $800mm of FCF, for a more than
100% FCF conversion rate
Strong cash flow is a hallmark of Masco enabling us to drive shareholder value through reinvesting in the
business, selectively pursuing acquisitions with the right fit and return
o And returning cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends
Capital Deployment and Shareholders Return
We deployed nearly $1.5B of capital during the year, consistent with our balanced capital allocation
strategy
We returned $654mm to shareholders through share repurchases, we deployed $549mm for the
acquisition of Kichler Lighting, and we increased our dividend for the fifth consecutive year all while
reducing debt by $106mm
o With this debt reduction and continued earnings growth, we finished 2018 with a very strong
balance sheet
Our net debt-to-EBITDA at year end was approximately 1.7 times
RECOGNITION.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Before turning to 2019, I’d like to thank our more than 26,000 employees, both here in North America
o As well as across the globe, for all of their efforts to help make 2018 another successful year for
Masco
2019 PROSPECTS ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Repair and Remodel Market
Now, turning to 2019, I’d like to share with you our view of the markets for the year
Consistent with many industry forecasters, we expect the repair and remodel market to grow in the mid-
single digit range in 2019, though slower than the rate of growth in 2018
New Construction and International Markets
For new construction, we are assuming a low-single digit growth rate due mainly to labor constraints and
affordability concerns, understanding that recent declines in mortgage rates could help alleviate some of
the affordability pressure
And for our International markets, principally Europe, we’re expecting a low-single digit growth
environment
Tariffs
With regards to tariffs, our assumption is that the List 3 Tariffs will increase to 25% on March 1
We previously shared with you that the impact of these tariffs on Masco is less than the raw material and
other inflation we effectively dealt with in 2018
As a reminder, the 25% tariffs represent approximately $150mm of annual inflation or approximately 2.7%
of cost of goods sold
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o However, it remains to be seen what the impact these subsequent price increases will have on
consumer demand
Sales, Margins and EPS
Based on these assumptions, we expect:
o Sales growth in the range of 3% to 5% excluding currency
o Margins to be similar to 2018 as we offset tariffs with supply chain initiatives, other internal
productivity measures and price
o And EPS to be in the range of $2.60 to $2.80
Capital Deployment
With our strong balance sheet, we will continue our balanced capital allocation strategy and intend to
deploy approximately $600mm towards share repurchases in 2019 ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President
Q4 P&L RESULTS ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................
As Dave mentioned, most of my comments will focus on adjusted performance excluding the impact of
rationalization charges, the inventory step-up related to purchase accounting for the Kichler acquisition,
and other one-time items
Sales
Turning to slide 7, we finished the year strong
Fourth quarter sales increased 10% or 11% in local currency
o Excluding acquisitions and divestitures, sales increased 4% or 5% in local currency
Currency translation unfavorably impacted sales in the quarter by approximately $19mm
In local currency, North American sales increased 14% in the quarter or 6% excluding acquisitions and
divestitures
o In local currency, international sales matched prior year in the quarter and increased 2%
excluding our divestiture of Moores in Q4 2017
SG&A Operating Income and Margins
SG&A as a percent of sales decreased 190BPS to 16.9% in Q4 due to leverage on volume, lower
promotional spend, and cost containment
We delivered solid bottom line performance, as operating income increased 23% in the quarter and
margins expanded 150BPS to 15.4%
EPS
For Q4, our EPS increased 56% to $0.64
I would like to note, this performance was calculated based on a normalized tax rate of 25% vs. the
previously guided 26% tax rate
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o This change in our tax rate was driven by the issuance of recent IRS regulatory guidance
regarding certain provisions of the new tax code
Due to this change, we have provided restated adjusted EPS numbers for each quarter of 2018 in the
appendix on slide 23
Fourth quarter EPS was favorably impacted more than expected by approximately $0.05, consisting of an
approximately $0.03 benefit from the pull-forward of sales in the Plumbing and Decorative segments,
$0.01 due to the lower normalized tax rate of 25%, and $0.01 due to the gain on an asset sale in the
Decorative segment
FY2018 P&L RESULTS......................................................................................................................................................................................................
Sales
Turning to the full year 2018, sales increased 9%
o Excluding the acquisitions and divestitures, full-year sales increased 5%
Currency translation favorably impacted the full-year results by $47mm
In local currency, North American sales increased 11% for the full year or 6% excluding acquisitions and
the Arrow divestiture
Our North American teams executed well, driving solid revenue growth, as our strong brands, innovative
products, and broad product assortment continued to resonate with designers and consumers
In local currency, international sales declined 2% for the full year or increased 1% excluding the Moores
divestiture
o While we experienced some international market softness in 2018, mainly in the UK, our
international Hansgrohe Plumbing business continued to drive growth
SG&A and Operating Income
Our SG&A as a percent of sales decreased 90BPS to 17.7% for the full year, as we continued to leverage
our volume and control our costs
Full-year operating income increased $67mm or 6%, with operating margins of 15.1%
EPS
Lastly, our EPS increased 29% to $2.50 for the full year
Compared to our prior 2018 EPS guidance, the $2.50 in EPS includes the aggregate $0.04 EPS benefit
of the sales pull-forward and the gain on the sale of the building in Q4, and $0.03 full-year EPS benefit
from the normalized tax rate of 25%, down from our previously guided 26% tax rate
o Our adjusted EPS calculation will continue to assume a 25% normalized tax rate for 2019
PLUMBING SEGMENT BUSINESS ....................................................................................................................................................................
Q4 Results
SALES
Turning to slide 8, our Plumbing segment had a strong finish to the year, and sales in the quarter
increased 6% excluding the impact of currency
o This was driven by strong growth in our faucet, shower, and spa businesses
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Q4 benefited from approximately $10mm of pull-forward sales from Q1 of 2019, while currency negatively
impacted sales by approximately $16mm in the quarter
North American sales increased 8% in local currency, as we experienced strong demand from our
wholesale, retail, dealer, and e-commerce customers
o Additionally, our spa business continued to outperform by achieving a record fourth quarter with
its innovative new products and industry-leading brands
Our international sales in Q4 grew 3% in local currency, rebounding from a soft third quarter
Hansgrohe’s focus on key markets drove this performance, as they experienced strong growth in
Germany and China
OPERATING PROFIT
Operating profit in the quarter increased 11% due to incremental volume, lower spending, and a neutral
price/cost relationship
FY2018 Results
SALES
Turning to the full year 2018, sales increased 6% in local currency
This strong growth was driven by record years at Delta, Hansgrohe, and Watkins
North American sales grew 8% in local currency, as we experienced strong growth across all channels
and price points during the year
Our international Plumbing sales increased 2% in local currency, as Hansgrohe’s performance continued
to benefit from their investments in brand, design, and innovation
OPERATING PROFIT
Full-year operating profit grew 3% due to volume growth, partially offset by the price/cost lag we
experienced in the first three quarters of the year, mix, and other expenses such as ERP spending
Business Outlook
For 2019, we expect the Plumbing segment’s sales growth to be in the 3% to 5% range excluding
currency, with margins similar to 2018, as we implement price to offset the impacts of the proposed tariffs
o Also, given year-end currency exchange rates, we expect 2019 revenue will be unfavorably
impacted by approximately $65mm, principally in the first and second quarters
o This unfavorable currency exchange results in negative EPS impact of approximately $0.01 per
quarter in each of Q1 and Q2 2019
In addition, depreciation and amortization in this segment will approximate $20mm per quarter due to
increased capital investments in 2018
We also anticipate an additional $5mm of expense in Q1, as we will be exhibiting at ISH, the large
biennial European plumbing trade show
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DECORATIVE ARCHITECTURAL PRODUCTS RESULTS ....................................................................................................
Q4 Results
SALES
Turning to slide 9, the Decorative Architectural Products segment grew 30% in Q4
Excluding the acquisition of Kichler, sales grew 8%, as we experienced strong double-digit growth in our
core DIY products and high single-digit growth in pro
Behr’s strong DIY performance was aided by approximately $20mm of sales pulled forward from Q1 2019
due to increased year-end customer purchases to achieve incentives
OPERATING INCOME
Operating income increased 42% in the quarter, aided by the Kichler acquisition, increased volume, an
improvement in the price/cost relationship, cost control, and $4mm gain on the sale of a building
FY2018 Results
SALES
Full year sales grew 20%
o Excluding the acquisition of Kichler, sales grew 5%
The solid performance was driven by our Behr pro initiative as we achieved high-single digit growth and
continued to grow share with the pro
o While this pro growth is slightly lower than our previously guided double-digit growth expectation,
we are pleased with this performance considering the slowdown in the overall coatings market
Together with The Home Depot, we will continue to invest in and capitalize on this significant growth
opportunity
The solid sales growth in 2018 was also attributable to Liberty Hardware’s continued share gains from
successful new product introductions and program wins in the retail channel
OPERATING INCOME
Full year operating income increased 13%, principally due to the acquisition of Kichler, and improvement
in a – and improvement in the price/cost relationship and lower spending
Q1 2019 Guidance
For Q1 2019, we expect segment operating margins to be down approximately 200BPS
This margin erosion in Q1 is driven by:
o The $20mm of sales pulled forward into Q4 2018, both sequential and y-over-y commodity
inflation
o Additional investment in our pro paint initiative
o The full quarter impact of Kichler
o And an increase in depreciation and amortization to approximately $12mm per quarter
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FY2019 Guidance
For the full year 2019, we expect sales growth in this segment to be in the 4% to 6% range including the
benefit of approximately two months from the Kichler acquisition
o And operating margins to be between 17% and 18%
CABINETRY BUSINESS ..................................................................................................................................................................................................
Q4 Results
Turning to slide 10, in the Cabinetry segment, excluding the Moores divestiture, sales increased 4% in Q4
and 7% for the full year
This solid performance was driven by our industry-leading brands, as we experienced double-digit growth
in our repair/remodel business in 2018
The Cardell program at Menards is performing well and we are pleased with its first year performance
o In addition, our new home construction business matched 2017
Segment profitability declined $1mm in the quarter and declined $8mm for the full year
Q4 performance was driven by increased logistics costs and mix, as we discussed on our third quarter
call
Full Year Profitability
Full year profitability was also impacted by logistics costs and mix in addition to the ramp-up costs related
to the Menards win
2019 Guidance
For 2019, we expect flat to low-single digit sales growth due to lower demand in the cabinet market
o And expect segment margins will be similar to 2018
WINDOWS BUSINESS RESULTS ........................................................................................................................................................................
Q4 Results
Turning to slide 11, in our Windows segment, sales decreased 1% in Q4 and declined 2% for the full year
o Excluding the sale of Arrow Fastener in Q2 2017 and FX, sales increased 1% for the full year
This performance was driven by Milgard, our leading Western U.S. Window business which grew low-
single digits in the quarter and mid-single digits for the full year
Milgard’s growth was due to favorable pricing and a positive mix shift toward our premium window and
door products
o This growth was partially offset by our UK window operation which continues to experience
market softness
Segment profitability in Q4 increased $4mm, but decreased $15mm for the full year
Fourth quarter profit (sic) [fourth quarter profit grew], due to favorable price/cost and mix
FY2018 Results
Full year performance was primarily driven by restructuring actions taken in the UK, and the increase in
Milgard’s warranty-related costs and inefficiencies in both the North American and UK operations
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In Q1 2019, we will be implementing the ERP system at Milgard’s largest California facility
o As a result, we expect a modest operating loss due to lower volumes and the incremental ERP
costs in Q1
For full year, we expect low-single digit sales growth for this segment, excluding currency, with modest
margin improvement
BALANCE SHEET ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Turning to slide 12, our year-end balance sheet was strong with approximately $600mm of balance sheet
liquidity, as well as full availability of our $750mm revolving credit facility
Working Capital
Working capital as a percent of sales finished the year at 14%
While slightly higher due to the acquisition of Kichler, this performance continues to be some of the best
results in the industry
Shareholders Return
During 2018, we repurchased 18.6mm shares for approximately $654mm
We increased our quarterly dividend by 14% to $0.12 per share
We took further action in 2018 to strengthen our balance sheet by reducing debt by $106mm
o In addition, we now hold an investment-grade credit rating at Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, and
Moody’s
2019 GUIDANCE......................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Capital Allocation
Going into 2019, our disciplined capital allocation strategy is unchanged
We continue to prioritize investments in our businesses to drive organic growth
We will balance acquisitions with the right strategic fit and returns with share repurchases, and we will
maintain an appropriate dividend
We expect to deploy another $600mm for share repurchases in 2019 subject to market conditions
We are assuming a 290mm average share count for 2019
FCF
We generated $803mm of FCF in 2018, and expect to sustain our better than 100% FCF conversion rate
in 2019
EPS
Lastly, as Keith mentioned earlier, our 2019 EPS estimate is $2.60 to $2.80 per share
I’ve provided a lot of detail on our 2019 expected performance for each segment during my prepared
remarks.
o Please see slides 27 and 28 in the appendix of our earnings deck for a list of these assumptions ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
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Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
2019 BUSINESS OUTLOOK .........................................................................................................................................................................................
Looking at 2019, while we believe that growth may moderate in 2019, the fundamentals of our business in
our core repair and remodel market are healthy
Consumer confidence and wages are growing
o This increases a consumer’s willingness to invest in their home
Home prices continue to appreciate
o This is highly correlated with repair and remodel spending
The age of the housing stock is increasing, with 50mm owned homes greater than 30 years old
o This drives increased remodeling spending
And household formations have steadily increased throughout 2018, driven by the millennial demographic
o This trend is projected to continue, fueling housing demand for the next decade
With our continued focus on executing our strategy, including investing in our leading brands, innovation
leadership, and operational excellence, coupled with our strong balance sheet and liquidity position, we
will continue to create shareholder value ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
QUESTION AND ANSWER SECTION
Kenneth R. Zener KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Q The 8% growth we saw in North America Plumbing, I was wondering if you could maybe expand on that a little bit.
And I’m just thinking of your Analyst Day in the past where you looked at faucets and shower heads, non-
decorative and other wellness, I just wanted to see how much dispersion there was between those different end
markets, if you could do that for the quarter and for the year just so we can get a sense of how those different
initiatives are working. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A When you look at our North American plumbing market growth of 8%, we’re very pleased with that and we believe
that, that growth is higher than the overall market, so we think we are taking share there. So, we feel good about
that. When you think about our International Plumbing business, that’s an extremely diverse set of demands
spread over 135 countries, and it’s difficult to really nail down the market growth with that kind of aggregation. But
when you look at how Hansgrohe is performing, particularly in Central Europe, we’re happy with that. So, when
you look across the Plumbing group’s overall performance and where that growth was driven, there were some
good geographic dispersion, which we’re pleased with.
And then when you look further, as it relates to price point, we had some very good growth in the opening price
point driven the way we want it driven, meaning we launched new products to specifically address that price point:
the Peerless brand, for example; we’re seeing very good sales in our bathing and toilet categories, which tend to
be more opening or entry price point. But we also saw strong growth in our high-end brands of Axor and Brizo for
Delta and Hansgrohe, respectively. And we saw very good growth, as we talked in our prepared remarks, in our
spa business and our hot tub business. So, we’re seeing strong dispersed growth across both geographies, price
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points, and across our full continuum of the portfolio. So, feel good about the growth and feel good about 2019 in
that segment. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Kenneth R. Zener KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Q Good. And then I was just looking at – the DIY paint seemed to grow – I mean grew low double digits. Was that
including the pull-forward, because I think there was some other commentary from some other producers about it
being kind of challenging, and it seems like you didn’t have the issue, if you could just expand on that? Thank you
very much. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A Ken, it’s John. No, first of all, the low-double digit growth rate does reflect or include the $20mm of sales that were
pulled forward out of Q1 and into Q4. So, yeah, that does help aid that growth rate a little bit. That said, we do
think that the overall coatings market in 2018 did slow a little bit. And so, we do feel like we’ve probably picked up
a little bit of share gain on the DIY side, not a ton. If you look at our overall growth rate for the full year, it was
definitely low-single digit. So, a little bit of tailwind there in Q4, but for the full year, low-single digit growth. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Michael Jason Rehaut JPMorgan Securities LLC Q Congrats on the quarter and the year. The first question I had was, looking out to 2019, your sales growth outlook
of 3% to 5%. Obviously, by segment, you continue to execute a lot of market share gaining initiatives, such as pro
paint, your expansion in Plumbing et cetera. I was curious, it looked though that like the 3% to 5% was more of in
line with your market growth assumption. So, if that is indeed correct, I was just curious about how you think
about share gain opportunity in 2019 and if that’s reflected at all in your outlook. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A Mike, one of the things that did impact our guidance for the full year on the top line, the 3% to 5%, is effectively
we did have some of the pull-forward sales that impacted Q4. So, that $30mm we would have typically anticipated
hitting into 2019 pulled forward into 2018. But if you consider the markets that we are in, both the R&R market
which is growing kind of mid-single digit, 4% to 6% range, and kind of low-single digits for both new construction
and International, and if you consider the fact that, in particular, our Decorative Architectural segment we’ve got
growing low single digits. If you put that all together, there is some share gain baked in there. And so we do think
we’re growing ahead of markets. But overall, the markets are slowing a little bit for 2019. So I hope that captures
the essence of your question. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A Mike, we’re seeing some good share gain opportunities to continue in our pro paint segment for sure. We have
real solid momentum in Plumbing and expect that to continue. And our offering as it relates to in-aisle service
product and brand, et cetera, we feel good about that in the DIY space. While that market is a little softer, we
believe it will be a little softer going into 2019. So there is share gain baked into our thinking. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Michael Jason Rehaut JPMorgan Securities LLC Q
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No, that’s good to hear. Thank you for that. I guess secondly, you mentioned that the List 3 25% tariffs are baked
into your outlook for the year, your EPS guidance. I just wanted to clarify that it still represents $150mm of
incremental headwind. And more broadly, if you could, just remind us of the overall outlook for incremental raw
material and tariff inflation in 2019 and how you expect to offset that between – if it’s possible to break it down
between price, productivity, and whatever other offsets you have. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A That $150mm impact, Mike, is the right number, and we’ve talked about that before. Of course, there’s a
significant amount of moving parts and potential variability there. The 10% – does that stay, how much the 25%
goes in if everything – when it goes in, so I think it’s best to think about that as a very dynamic situation. And as
more certainty is revealed over time, we’ll be sure to share that with you and reflect that in our updates.
In terms of raws, without a doubt, tariff is the biggest uncertainty for 2019. We are assuming in our forecast that
the tariffs do jump up to 25% in March. When we look at other significant commodities, like copper and zinc, for
example, in plumbing, that has started to moderate in the back half of 2018. And we think that the level we’re at,
and we’re assuming that the level we are at in copper and zinc will continue into 2019, so there might be a
modest benefit there as we move on through the year.
In coatings, while TiO2 has moderated a bit, we are continuing to see significant pricing pressures in resins. And
in cabinets, plywood distribution and logistics, they remain elevated, but we think those are moderating. We think
those will hold where they are currently.
In terms of how we’re addressing it, certainly we’re making significant moves and decisions and doing a lot of
work on our supply chain. For example, we’ve reallocated, if you would, and moved over $30mm of plywood
purchases in our cabinet business to address countervailing duties and tariffs and the like. That’s just one
example. We’re looking at value engineering and cost out. We’re looking at productivity. We’re certainly looking at
other opportunities to move to other low-cost countries, and then price. And I think we’ve demonstrated the ability
to execute on all of those. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Michael Wood Nomura Instinet Q First question, I just wanted to ask for some more color on the DIY gallon growth, and if you have any point-of-
sale trends that you could share with us in Q4. It looks like, as you mentioned, you’ve outperformed the market.
And if you could, provide some more color in terms of what’s driving some of that relative strength. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A So, Mike, in terms of – we really can’t get into POS. That’s not ours. We can’t give you too much of a read-
through. That said, gallon growth was flat to low single digits in Q4, so that’s where we stand there. We feel good
about that overall, meaning that’s a combination of both pro and DIY. So we continue to grow the pro side. The
DIY has been a little bit sluggish, but that’s been the case all of 2018, so that’s not necessarily new news. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A I think in terms of what’s driving that DIY growth in the aisle, it’s a number of things. There’s no one silver bullet
there. Certainly, a big driver of it is our strong partnership with The Home Depot and the work we’re doing in the
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aisle to convert foot traffic to cash paying sales to the consumer. The brand of Behr is extremely strong in the DIY
space and well-known. Our service levels, both in the store and in terms of delivery, are extremely strong. So that
combination of brand and service and a continued steady innovation pipeline is all part of our success in DIY. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Michael Wood Nomura Instinet Q Great. Then some other building product companies that have reported have seen some destocking in fourth
quarter, notably Europe and U.S. retail. Did you see that in any of your segments? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A There’s always a fluctuation with inventories at our customers. We did see a little bit of destocking in plumbing
wholesale, where we’ve had tremendous success, and that did slow down in that channel little bit in Q4. So there
was a little bit of destocking there. But then, we also had significant pull-ahead volume, which would obviously
equate to restocking. We talked about that $30mm impact over and across paint and plumbing. So really we did
not see what I would characterize as, any material destocking in our channels. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Scott Schrier Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Q I’m wondering if you could talk a little bit about if there was any impact on margins this quarter that might have
come from you pushing price to offset tariffs, and then we has the tariff delays, so if there’s any lag there that
caused a little bit of a margin tailwind there.
And then understanding that’s pretty uncertain, if tariffs don’t materialize or things turn out to be better than what
we hoped for, can you speak to the elasticity of pricing that you might have for some of those price increases that
you’re putting through? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A Sure, Scott. As it relates to the impact in the quarter due to pricing related to tariffs on margin, specifically to your
question, recall that what we’re trying to do or what we’re pursuing with price when we pursue price to offset the
tariff impact is just to recover the dollar amount of the tariff. So there’s not any incremental margin as a result of
the tariff pricing that we’re putting into place. And if anything, because we’re only recovering the dollar value of the
tariff, there actually is a slight potential for margin to decline because of that. So really no margin benefit there. I
forget the second part of the question. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A Elasticity. In terms of elasticity, Scott, that’s really difficult to nail down when you look at the environment that
we’re in. Typically, the elastic studies that we do and information we have is based on – in the constant
environment if a particular product line goes up or down. With this kind of broad-based inflation across our
markets, it’s difficult to really peg that down specifically, but we are expecting that there would be some pull-back
in terms of demand in the categories that are affected. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Scott Schrier Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Q
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Got it. And then in the last couple of quarters, I believe that you’ve mentioned that you are seeing strong trends in
terms of your ticket sizes. I’m curious if you anticipate that continuing or consistent with your comments about
some moderation in 2019 you would expect to see some – even ticket sizes moderate in an environment where
you have some uncertainty. And if so, is that built into your guidance? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A Mix is a good story for us, Scott. We’re seeing good high-end growth in our higher priced bigger ticket items. I
talked a little bit about it in terms of some very high-end shower systems at Hansgrohe continued to do well. Our
spa business had a record year this year. So the high-end’s very strong, and it continues to be strong for us and
we expect that continuing into 2019.
We’re also increasing our revenue and our growth rate in the opening price point or in the low-end, and that’s by
design where we’ve launched specific products. I talked about Peerless, we’ve talked about bathing and some of
our toilets and vitreous China products. So, we’re also seeing growth there, and I think that’s a good story when
you have that kind of bimodal dispersion in your growth. The market is strong and new entries and new
homeowners are forming households, driving some of that opening price point, and we have products to cover
that. And then there’s the move-up phenomenon, we have products on the high-end. Now, while our lower-end
products tend to be a little bit lower margin over time, we’ve done work to close that gap, but they are lower
margin. And when you factor it all in how we’re looking at 2019, we’re really not anticipating mix being a material
impact. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Justin Andrew Speer Zelman & Associates Q I had a couple of questions. One, just the broader corporate level SG&A, the management in the quarter was
excellent. And I just wanted to understand how much of that is temporal in nature and how to think about SG&A
as a percentage of revenues on a go-forward basis embedded in your guidance? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A A portion of that favorability in SG&A this year is what we talked about in terms of the gain on sale on the DAP
segment, so that was about $4mm. And we did lap some investments in Q4 of 2017 tied to some pretty significant
resets and program wins in decorative hardware with Liberty in the shower door program. So there was a bit of an
easy comp, if you would. We also had good cost control throughout the year, and we did push certain investments
into 2019 to mitigate inflationary pressures for example.
In 2019, we expect total SG&A for the company to be up slightly from 2018 as a percent of sales as we pick up
some of those investments that were pushed out to 2019. We’re going to continue to invest strategically for
growth, such as marketing spend in plumbing and additional headcounts in deco to support our pro initiative. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Justin Andrew Speer Zelman & Associates Q Okay. And then the next question, it’s a two-part question, particularly as it pertains to the Plumbing business.
You’re looking for flat margins there. You included a 25% tariff. First question is, do you already have the price in
hand for that 25% tariff? And the second question is, how do margins for that business flex around a more
sanguine R&R market backdrop, let’s say, low single or flat as opposed to your 5% view? And how do they look
under a 10% or no-tariff scenario?
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Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A I think in terms of do we have price in hand for the 25? No, we do not. We obviously had significant conversations
and pricing actions. For the 10%, we feel we’re with a combination of the price and the cost-outs that we’ve driven
there, we’re in good shape on the 10%. But more conversations would be required for sure should we see this go
to 25%. Justin, could you repeat that second part of your question for me? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A It’s on margin flex in a low-growth environment vs. a no-tariff scenario. So, Justin, as I think about that, assuming
that commodities are constant, so let’s put that initially, we don’t have any commodity impact. I would say that we
should see some modest margin expansion just given our leverage on incremental volume, and so that should
help us out. And to the extent that the tariffs don’t go into effect and that has a good impact or a favorable impact
on consumer demand, we would typically see incremental margins off of volume in this segment in the high 20%
to 30% range. So we should see some again some modest margin expansion in that scenario as well. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Justin Andrew Speer Zelman & Associates Q But in a flat world assuming a 25% tariff does go into fruition, that would potentially risk your guidance since
you’re looking for modest growth there? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A It could have a little bit of an impact on it only because with 25% tariffs, we are going to be – again, the same
answer I gave a couple of minutes ago, we won’t be getting the dollar impact of that recovery on those tariffs. So
that, if anything, could present a little bit of a headwind to margins in that scenario, Justin. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Justin Andrew Speer Zelman & Associates Q Thank you. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A I think I may have heard you say something along the lines of the 25% tariff risking our guidance. Just to be clear,
we have incorporated into our guidance the expectation of 25% on March 1. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Nishu Sood Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Q I wanted to ask first about the assumed moderation in demand that you’re baking into your 2019 forecast. So, on
the housing side, we clearly have some indicators that housing has slowed down. And I imagine you would expect
that to begin to impact some of your businesses in the next quarter or two. On the R&R side, the assumed
slowdown, is that something you’ve seen already in Q4, or are you just assuming that it happens given the
slowdown on the new side? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
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Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A We did see a little bit of a slowdown in Q4. I think in our coatings business, we saw it a little bit. I talked a little bit
about our Plumbing business in the trade and wholesale, so there’s little bit of slowness there. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Nishu Sood Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Q Got it, got it. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A And, Nishu, I would also say that we saw a little bit of slowdown in our cabinets and to a degree our Windows
business. We grew low-single digit for Q4 in Windows, grew mid-single digits for the full year there. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Nishu Sood Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Q Got it. Just shifting gears to cabinets and Other Specialty. In terms of the kind of margin turnaround there, kind of
getting those back to double-digit. Low-single digit revenue growth there seems pretty good given their greater
exposure to new construction. On the margin side though, we’re expecting flat for the year. They have less, I
would imagine, tariff impact based on your tables there and less commodities as well. So, why only flat? When
can we expect further improvement in margins on those two businesses? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A When you look at cabinets, we had a full year margin north of 9% and when you compare that to the competition,
we think we’re doing pretty good there. We’ve got certainly some good dropdown that can come from that. We
also experienced some inflation in plywood that we’ve dealt with. There’s still little bit more of that that could be a
drag on margins.
In terms of our Windows business, we’ve got ERP spend that we’re going to continue to make into the quarter,
which, our experience shows us, will have an impact on both the top line as well as the actual expense of that
ERP system. So when you combine those things together, that’s what’s really led to our guidance as it relates to
margin. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Stephen Kim Evercore Group LLC Q Good quarter. I wanted to follow up on the cabinet conversation a little bit. Menards, I think you had indicated that
it was going to be running at a run rate of about $80mm or so on an annualized basis by the end of this year – or
the end of last year. I am guessing that maybe you recognized about half of that in 2018. And if that were to be
the case, that would suggest that Menards alone would add about 400BPS to your sales next year. But you’ve
guided 0% to 3%. And so, I’m kind of wondering if you could talk about what you’re seeing in the market
environment that underlies that guidance. Or is there anything that you’re seeing in terms of the sales
environment that is depressing things that is worth calling out, whether it be regionally or price point-wise or
anything like that? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
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John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A So, Stephen, with respect to the Menards business, while we won’t break out specific customer sales, we’re
probably doing a little bit better than that $40mm run rate that you suggested. So, the impact for 2019 is good as
you’ve laid out there.
That said, as we go into 2019 and as we consider a little bit of the deceleration we saw in 2018 and the impact of
the tariffs and the pricing, particularly on a big-ticket item like cabinetry, we do expect to see a little bit more of a
market slowdown in Cabinetry going into 2019, and so that definitely weighs on our forecast for 2019.
That said, even though we did see some of this deceleration, we do expect just some modest growth in this
because we have seen nice growth on the R&R side of our business, and we’ve gotten back to flat sales for our
new construction business. So, not a lot of growth, but we do see a little bit of deceleration in that area for 2019. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Stephen Kim Evercore Group LLC Q Okay, that’s helpful. But just to clarify, you’re expecting some modest growth excluding or in addition to the
Menards win? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A Given the fact that we’ve baked in some headwinds, given the tariffs and the deceleration – or the overall market
demand, I’d say, it’d be kind of flat to very low-single digit growth ex-Menards. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Stephen Kim Evercore Group LLC Q Ex-Menards? Okay, got it. And then you talked about the outlook for housing starts I think being kind of low-single
digit growth for the year. At this point, that seems like it’s reasonably conservative, but also there’s a lot that’s still
up in the air in terms of what the housing market’s going to do as we just enter the spring selling season this
week.
And so I was curious if you see upside to this housing starts figure that you laid out of low-single digit growth, is
there anything about your strategy that would change? And are there any particular segments that we should be
expecting you would be able to generate outsized sales or profit growth as a result of housing starts specifically? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A If rates start to go down a little bit, then obviously that could be an upside for us. In terms, Stephen, of your direct
question, if we see upside in our guidance, I would say no. I think we’ve put our guidance right where we think it
would be and where we expect to come out based on what we know now.
With regards to our specific strategy and would we change anything in our strategy should there be an increase in
housing demand, no, not really. We’ve got our capacities in a good spot where we need to fulfill the demand.
We’ve purposefully moved our portfolio to a less cyclical, higher-margin, more stable state because we think
that’s the right thing to do for shareholder value. We talked a little bit about doing that in our cabinet business,
how we shifted it now to close to 70% of our business coming from repair and remodeling rather than new
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construction. Obviously, going back, we spun off our services businesses, and we’re continuing to drive our Paint
and Plumbing business and our Lighting business particularly into the R&R space. So that’s our strategy. We
think that strategy is sound and it’s working. So I would not say that we would have any material strategic change
should we see housing pick up in 2019. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A And, Stephen, I’d just remind you that housing as a percent of our total revenue is now down to about 15%. So it’s
really, to add to Keith’s point, because of the strategic repositioning that we’ve done over the years, it’s really a
very minor impact to the overall part of our sales or our business. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Michael Dahl RBC Capital Markets LLC Q I wanted to just go back to some of the commentary around sales and thinking about the cadence of things. You
guys have called out a couple things that are idiosyncratic about the pull-forward in the Paint and Plumbing
segments with respect to the impact on Q1. You pointed out some margin headwinds in Q1. But I guess at a
higher level, when we think about that 3% to 5% organic sales growth, how should we think about that playing out
Q1-Q2 vs. H2? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A We’ve talked about some of the pressure that we’re seeing in Q1 as it relates to margin and also on top line with
the pull-forward that we experienced in Paint and Plumbing, so that would be a factor on Q1. When we look at
that from H1 to H2, we certainly will see a pickup in Q2 as those first quarter headwinds don’t exist with regards to
the pull-forward, and then H2 to be somewhat similar to H1. So we’re maybe a little bit stronger in the back half,
but really pulling out the effect of the pull-forward out of Q1 into Q4 of 2018, really not a significant change beyond
that. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Michael Dahl RBC Capital Markets LLC Q Okay, got it. And then my follow-up question, just looking at the Decorative segment in particular with respect to
the 2019 guidance, I was hoping to drill down on Kichler a bit more because clearly that’s a business that has
potentially outsized exposure from a tariff standpoint. You’ve expressed some conservatism broadly speaking
around what potential demand impacts could be should the 25% go into effect. So I guess on Kichler specifically,
what are you guys embedding from a growth and margin standpoint to the extent you can give us a little more
detail there? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A I won’t break it down into specific details for Kichler. But in terms of speaking more in general terms, you may
recall, we had 10 months of Kichler in 2018, starting basically in March. So we’ll have the full quarter in Q1 of
Kichler. And just on face value, Kichler, that would be a margin drag as Kichler’s margins are lower than the
average in the segment, but particularly in Q1. That’s seasonally a weaker quarter for Kichler. So that will put
some drag on the segment as we look at the performance in Q1, and that’s part of our guidance, some of our
prepared remarks with regards to margin in that segment.
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Very happy we continue to build out the team down in Kichler, have an outstanding leader that’s demonstrated
performance across a number of our businesses and a number of functions. As I interact with the dealerships and
get more exposure to our customers, I’m really seeing a strong brand, and I’m also seeing an opportunity for us to
bring some of our MOS [Masco Operating System] operational skills and some of our purchasing power to that
area. We have an outstanding ability and opportunity to bring e-business capabilities to that business. So we’re
very happy with the Kichler acquisition. And we’re going to continue to drive performance throughout the year,
understanding that given the full year – or full quarter ownership of Kichler and the fact that Q1 is a seasonally
weaker quarter, that will be a little bit of a margin drag on the segment. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A Mike, maybe just to add on to Keith’s comment just a bit, if you think about how we look at the Lighting business
and what we talked about when we acquired the business, we really don’t see the fundamental market for lighting
shifting dramatically from when we initially talked about it. It should grow at the same rate as the overall R&R
market, in that mid-single-digit, 4% to 6% range, as you might call it.
That said, you raised the point about the tariffs and the tariff impacts. Could that have a little bit of a headwind on
that? Yes, that could, without a doubt. So something we need to look at and see how the tariffs actually roll out
and see how that plays. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Matthew Bouley Barclays Capital, Inc. Q I just wanted to follow up on the discussion earlier around how you would flex margins depending on different
market assumptions. Because you gave a point estimate for both Plumbing and cabinets margins in 2019 in light
of obviously a lot of moving pieces around tariffs and commodities. So I guess just what gives you confidence in
such precise estimates? And then, would you be able to give, I guess, a more specific range or a bracket around
those margin estimates? Thank you. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A I think the specificity comes from being able to identify the pull-forward, for example. I think that’s a significant bit
of it. We wanted to get some more detail in those segments because there were so many moving parts. I think
historically, we understand how those businesses operate. And the effect of Kichler as it relates to a seasonally
slower point in time and the fact that we own it three out of three months instead of one out of three months there.
So that was straight math, and we wanted to make sure that we talked about that so we could be more precise in
that specific quarter.
With regards to more detail, I think we’ve laid out the detail that we’re prepared to lay out with regards to our
margin performance for the year. And with respect to the impact of tariff, which is obviously the big moving piece
here that we’re talking about, that would have – if those were to go away, that would move us up towards the
higher part of our range, and we’ll leave it at that, and we’ll provide more detail as we get more certainty around
the number or the dates, et cetera. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Matthew Bouley Barclays Capital, Inc. Q Okay, I appreciate that detail. Thank you. And then just the margin guidance, specifically for Decorative,
understanding the larger impacts in Q1, it still suggest that you’re expecting a lower margin y-over-y from Q2 to
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Q4. So, is there any additional color on why that may be in light of oil prices obviously moving lower? I guess, how
much of that would be the Kichler headwind from tariffs? Is mix of pro a meaningful part of that, just any additional
color on why the conservatism on margins there? Thank you. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A Sure. Well, Kichler is a big mover there with the – that we’ve already talked about. We do expect some
price/commodity headwind in H1 2019. We are going to continue to invest in hub stores and pro reps. And recall
that we don’t anniversary our 2018 pro rep additions until Q3. So, when you look at Kichler, you look at what we
expect to be commodity headwinds, particularly in the resin area that we’ll be facing early in the year, we look at
our growth investments in hub stores and pro reps and the fact that we don’t anniversary some of those additions
we made in 2018 until late in the year, those all combined to put our guidance in that 17% to 18% range. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A The one other thing I would add to that list of items that Keith just called out is our depreciation and amortization
in the segment. I called that out in my prepared remarks, will be up compared to what we’ve experienced
historically, Matthew. So that’s another margin headwind a little bit. But from an EBITDA perspective, we’re
probably EBITDA – no impact on EBITDA whatsoever. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Susan Maklari Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Q My first question is just around, you’ve done a fair amount of work on the working capital side over the last year or
so, how much more do you think you can do there, and how should we think about that potentially adding to some
of the cash generation that you expect? ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
John G. Sznewajs Chief Financial Officer & Vice President A Certainly. You’re right, Susan. Thank you for noticing the fact that we’ve been working on our working capital.
Indeed the businesses have been working hard at it. It has actually elevated a little bit from where we’ve been
historically. A large part of that has to do with the Kichler acquisition as they carry higher working capital than
most of our businesses – core businesses typically have done.
That said, we are working with the Kichler team. They know that they see opportunity to reduce their working
capital in their business. So that could be a little bit of a tailwind for us going forward. And as you may know, we
have all of our businesses focused on working capital. So, while we’re happy with what we’ve posted so far, we
always strive to get better than where we’ve been. So, I think there’s an opportunity to grind out a little bit better
working capital as we go into 2019.
That said, the one thing that will be a bit of a headwind for us in working capital is the tariffs, because the tariffs
you have to pay the government in very short period of time. I believe it’s seven days. And so, that will impact our
working capital a little bit as we go into 2019. ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Susan Maklari Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Q Okay. And then my next question is just – now that Kichler is integrated, how are you thinking about M&A going
forward? Can you give us any color on what you’ve been seeing in terms of the pipeline there?
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Keith J. Allman President, Chief Executive Officer & Director A We have not changed our strategy in M&A. Our pipeline remains solid. We are focused on identifying spaces, if
you will, that we think have good fundamental growth and tailwinds and good pricing power, and then we identify
specific targets and then start our cultivation activity, and we have a pipeline process. And I’m pleased with the
level of the pipeline. We really are not changing our strategy. We have a strong balance sheet that affords us the
ability to do the kind of deals that we want to do, as well as allocate capital on a balanced approach towards
share repurchases, dividends and, of course, we’re going to continue to fund our brand and innovation in new our
existing core business. So, we like what we’re seeing, and we’re going to continue to drive it, and when we are
ready to announce a deal, we’ll do that.
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