FORUM FOR SENIOR REPRESENTATIVES OF EMPLOYERS’
ORGANIZATIONS IN THE ENGLISH- AND DUTCH-SPEAKING CARIBBEAN
ON FACILITATING PARTICPATION OF CARIFORUM CIVIL
SOCIETY IN REGIONAL DEVELPOMENT AND INTEGRATION PROCESSES
Accra Beach ResortBarbados
22 – 24 June 2015 16/18/2015 U Trotz CCCCC 24.06.15
Climate Change & Employers
1. Brief overview of climate change and likely scenarios of future climate change.
2. Climate Change & the Caribbean – possible impacts 3. Regional responses to date :
1. Adaptation.2. Mitigation
4. Some implications of climate change for employers.
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The Greenhouse Effect
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The Global Climate Projections Unequivocal evidence that the earth’s temperature is rising and
attributable to anthropogenic activities – Green House Gases
Projected trends through 2100
Rise in global temperatures of between 2 – 4.5oC
Sea level rise of between 11 -77 cm
Changed weather patterns
More intense extremes –drought ,floods
More intense hurricanes
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Caribbean Initiatives
–Regional Heads have endorsed:•Liliendall Declaration.•A Regional Framework For Achieving Development Resilient To Climate Change.
•An Implementation Plan for the Framework
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CARIBBEAN INITIATIVES• Suite of activities designed to determine:
– The extent of risk arising from climate change to which region will be exposed in future.
– The vulnerability of the region’s natural and socio-economic systems to climate change.
– The impacts of CC on the natural and socio-economic systems of the region.
– Regional response to mitigate those impacts and costs for implementing.
– Implementation of mitigative actions ( ADAPTATION)– Building regional capacity to carry out the above actions
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REASES Projected Temperatures for the Caribbean
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Projected Rainfall for the Caribbean.fo the Caribbean% CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION
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IMPACTS
Consequences of: Higher TemperaturesSea Level RiseSea Surface Temp. RiseChanged Weather Patterns
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Impact of 2oC rise on Agriculture in Belize
Preliminary studies on the impact on the staples -corn, beans and rice for 2oC warmer and +/- 20% change in precipitation
Crop Scenario Name
Season Length (days)
Temperature Change (oC)
% Change in
precipitation
Yield (kg/ha)
% change in Yield
Dry beans C3
Baseline Carib A
87 85 85
0 +2 +2
0 +20 -20
1353.6 1163.7 1092.6
-14% -19%
Rice C3
Baseline Carib A
124 113 113
0 +2 +2
0 +20 -20
3355.5 3014.4 2887.5
-10% -14%
Maize C4
Baseline Carib A
104 97 97
0 +2 +2
0 +20 -20
4510.6 3736.6 3759.4
-22% -17%
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SLR IMPACTS – 1m• Global temperatures and the SLR are linked• SLR in the Caribbean has paralleled global trends over the last 40 years• With a +1.50 C in mean global temperatures, the magnitude of SLR may
slow versus recent observations• +20 C in mean global temperature, the rapid increase in SLR will
continue• Gravitational and geophysical factors will lead the region to be more
seriously affected by SLR than most areas of the world– SLR in northern Caribbean may exceed global average by up to 25%
• Impact of tropical storms and hurricanes on coastlines, even at present levels, will be intensified as sea level rises
• SLR will continue for centuries after 2100, even if global temperatures are stabilized at 1.5C or 2.0C
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IMPACT OF WARMER SEA TEMPERATURE
More frequent episodes of Coral Bleaching since the 1980s
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Dolphin fish Habitat becomes less favourable
+1°C
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Increased incidences of unusually heavy rainfall
One of many flood events inGeorgetown, Guyana (2005, 2006and 2007)
August 31, 2007 Belize City, BelizeTropical wave dumped over 11 inchesof rain in less than 9 hours
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Increasing Resilience To Climate Change
ADAPTATION
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PV and SWRO Systems -Bequia
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Grid connected PV SystemSWRO System
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WATER RECYCLING
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RECYCLED WATER USE
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USE OF RAINWATER HARVESTED.
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Increasing Resilience To Climate Change
MITIGATION
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MITIGATION IN THE CARIBBEAN• All CARICOM countries except T&T net energy importers.• Strong dependence on fossil fuel – potential to reverse
developmental gains achieved over the last 2-3 decades.• Regional scenario of limited resources & >> cost of energy
putting a severe drain on limited financial resources– 116 Mb in 1985 costing US $ 530 m– 160 Mb in 2004 costing US $6.5 B– At 2008 prices US $15b – in some cases requiring
countries to devote 50% of foreign exchange earnings to purchase fuel
• W.R.T to CC mitigation region contributes << 1% to global GHG budget however opportunity to place the regional energy sector on a more sustainable footing
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MITIGATION (ENERGY)
• Region economy highly Carbon intensive & not as competitive as it can be.
• Heavy outflow of foreign ex. to meet escalating energy bill.
• Endogenisation of regional energy sources coupled with effective demand and supply side management practices regarded as essential part of region’s adaptive strategy.
• Mitigation is now an essential part of the region’s adaptation strategy.
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LILIENDALL DECLARATION
7. Strong determination to overcome technical, economic and policy barriers to facilitate the development, diffusion and deployment of appropriate and affordable low- and zero-emission technologies and renewable energy services; We also recognise the need for energy efficiency and conservation and the need for increased technical and financial support for the development of renewable energy in the Caribbean;
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REGIONAL RE INITIATIVES
• Solar water heating – Barbados • W20.7 MW Wigton Wind Energy Farm –Jamaica• 33 MW wind energy farm Dominican Republic a
$100 million wind power project built by public and private investors and Vestas’ wind turbines, began operating earlier this month (October)
• 30 MW wind energy farm at Vader Piuet –Aruba• Geothermal development in Nevis, Saint Lucia,
Dominica.
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ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• Regional Energy Efficiency Program (PEER)– GEF financed – UNDP Implementation /BUN –CA
Execution
• Investment - $5.7 M US in more efficient equiqment and adoption of best practices :– 183 companies saved $ 4.2 M US in electricity
use between 2006 & 2011.– Reduction in electricity consumption of 22066
MWh– Avoid emission of 31,000 tons Carbon Dioxide
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New Business OpportunitiesNew job opportunities in the energy sector:– Solar water heating, photovoltaics – manufacture, installation &
servicing.– Wind energy – manufacture, installation, operation , servicing
and maintenance– Hydroelectricity & geothermal.– Biomass conversion – waste to energy e.g biogas, cogeneration
(woodwaste, bagassse, rice husks), Arundo donax (wild cane)– Biofuels – waste oil (Restaurants), indigenous feedstock (cohune,
kokerite, coconut)– Energy efficiency – energy audits, retrofitting, architectural
modifications
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Employer’s Concerns Worker well-being
Work place safety Work place comfort Prevalence of vector borne diseases and likelihood of greater
incidence of workers on sick leave.
Resilience of business plant (infrastructure etc.) to emerging climate risks – flood, water scarcity, sea level rise, extreme weather events.
Adjusting operational modality to suit changing conditions e.g. fishing.
New business opportunities Supply Chain disruption e.g. farmer’s supply to food
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SUPPLY CHAINS
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Extreme weather events and climate variability can affect businesses through their supply chains; impacts at the national/regional level can also have significant impacts for global supply chains.
The following infographic produced by Acclimatiseillustrates the multi-tiered disruptions that the flooding in Thailand in 2011 had for transport, agriculture and manufacturing (from an economic perspective) and thus disruptions to global supply chains delivering rice and agricultural products, cars and hard drives.
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The significant financial impact that the event had on multiple businesses demonstrates that addressing climate risks in supply chains makes business sense. As businesses spot and address climate challenges they will be more competitive and better positioned for success.
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“Greenhouse gases already released into the atmosphere will, no matter what reductions in emissions occur in the coming years, make at least some level of climate change inevitable. […]
Many of the essential conditions on which businesses rely are changing, leading to increasing prices, as well as shortfalls in the quality and supply of goods and services provided to customers”.
Steven TebbeManaging Director , CDP
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Snapshot on supply chains
CDP Supply Chain Report (2013-2014)
• 72% of companies identified a current or future risk related to climate change
• More than half the companies cite water scarcity as the greatest water-related concern
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There are also now a wealth of mechanisms that businesses can use to help them build climate resilience through their supply chains in ways that reflect their business interests and needs - helping them to identify climate related risks, especially hidden risks emerging from the interdependencies in which their engage with the companies they invest in or insure to manage risks, maximise returns and minimize future losses
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Snapshot of the
business value chain
Snapshot of the
business value chain
Business-ADAPT:Five step guide to building climate resilience
Partnership for Resilience and Environmental Preparedness
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Here is another example.This is a graphic showing the structure of the Climate Ready Supply Chain Guidance developed by Acclimatise on behalf of the UK Environment Agency for UK businesses. It introduces a 5 step framework for large and small businesses to understand what climate change and extreme weather means to them and help them think of new risks and opportunities within their supply chain and how to respond dynamically to increase their resilience.
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Assessing and managing climate change risks in supply chains
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Acknowledgement
Supply Chain information supplied by UK, USA and Barbados based Risk
Management firm Acclimatise
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Let’s Connect!
Dr Ulric TrotzDeputy Director and Science Advisor
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