Forward-looking statementsThis presentation contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results of
operations, and businesses of Card Factory plc. These statements and forecasts involve risk, uncertainty and
assumptions because they relate to events and depend upon circumstances that will occur in the future. There
are a number of factors that could cause actual results or developments to differ materially from those
expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made only
as at the date of this presentation. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit
forecast. Except as required by law, Card Factory plc has no obligation to update the forward-looking
statements or to correct any inaccuracies therein.
The financial information in this presentation does not contain sufficient detail to allow a full understanding of
the results of Card Factory plc. For more detailed information, please see the preliminary results
announcement for the year ended 31 January 2019 which can be found at www.cardfactoryinvestors.com.
Agenda
• Introduction & key messages Karen Hubbard (CEO)
• Financial review Kris Lee (CFO)
• Strategy update Karen Hubbard (CEO)
• In summary Karen Hubbard (CEO)
• Outlook
• Questions
• Card Factory grew market share in terms of both volume & value in the stable card market
• Achieved flat LFL sales despite the High Street footfall decline
• Strong seasonal card and non card performance underpinned by our innovation and design
• Extended our store footprint by opening 51 net new stores and tested new markets and formats through 3rd party partnerships
• Generating strong levels of cash with robust returns to shareholders
Financial highlights
FY19 FY18 Year-on-year change
Revenue £436.0m £422.1m 3.3%
Card Factory LFL growth
Store LFL growth
(0.1%)
(0.5%)
+2.9%
+2.6%
EBITDA £89.4m £94.0m (4.9%)
Margin 20.5% 22.3% (1.8ppts)
Profit before tax £74.6m £80.5m (7.3%)
Earnings per share 17.6p 18.9p (7.1%)
Total ordinary dividend per share (2) 9.3p 9.3p -
Dividend cover 1.89 x 2.03 x
Special dividend 5.0p / £17.1m 15.0p/£51.2m
Net debt (3) £141.3m £161.3m
Leverage 1.58 x 1.72 x
1. All figures shown on an
underlying basis
2. Total FY19 ordinary
dividend includes
recommended 6.4p final
dividend, subject to AGM
approval
3. Net debt excludes debt
issue costs
Robust performance in a challenging consumer environment
Divisional performanceStrong growth in core business impacted by high street footfall decline and NLW
1. All figures shown on an underlying basis
2. Card Factory includes both stores and online
FY19 FY18 Y/Y change
Revenue £419.7m £404.3m 3.8%
EBITDA £88.2m £91.1m (3.2%)
Margin 21.0% 22.5% (1.5ppts)
Revenue £16.3m £17.8m (8.4%)
EBITDA £1.2m £2.9m (58.6%)
Margin 7.4% 16.4% (9.0ppts)
Sales mix – Card Factory storesResilient card sales and success in growing complementary non-card product
53.7%44.0%
2.3%
53.1%44.6%
2.3%
Single cards Christmas Box cardsNon-card items
FY18 Sales MixFY19 Sales Mix
Note: Mix shown for Card Factory stores only 9
Underlying EBITDA bridgeGrowth of 2% excluding headwinds
Best-in-class marginsContinued focus on low cost business model
FY19 % of revenue FY18 % of revenue % of revenue
Movement
Cost of goods sold £142.1m 32.6% £138.0m 32.7% 0.1ppt
Store Wages £80.8m 18.5% £74.9m 17.7% (0.8ppt)
Store Property Costs £68.3m 15.7% £65.5m 15.5% (0.2ppt)
Other Direct expenses £21.3m 4.9% £18.6m 4.4% (0.5ppt)
Cost of Sales £312.5m 71.7% £297.0m 70.3% (1.4ppts)
Operating expenses £34.1m 7.8% £31.1m 7.4% (0.4ppts)
EBITDA £89.4m 20.5% £94.0m 22.3% (1.8ppts)
Strong cash generationTrack record of generating significant surplus cash
FY19
£’m
FY18
£’m
Y/Y
Change
Underlying EBITDA 89.4 94.0 (4.9%)
Non-underlying FX gain/(loss) 4.2 (7.6)
FX hedging reserve cash gain/(loss) - (3.4)
Loss on disposal and share-based payment accrual 0.7 (0.2)
Operating cash flow before working capital 94.3 82.8 13.9%
Net working capital movement (1) 4.8 6.9
Corporation tax (13.4) (17.0)
Net capital expenditure (11.9) (13.1)
Net interest paid (3.4) (2.6)
Free cash flow 70.4 57.0 23.5%
1. Including favourable short-term working capital timing difference
CapexLow, predictable and well controlled
⚫ FY19 spend
– Lower than the £14m guidance principally due to timing of
investment in vertical supply chain integration
⚫ Capex remains low as a proportion of operating cash flow
⚫ FY20 guidance - circa £18m, including:
– further investment in vertical supply chain integration;
– commercial initiatives;
– supply chain technology; and
– replatforming cardfactory.co.uk
FY19
£’m
FY18
£’m
One-off strategic projects
Vertical integration 1.7 -
EPOS/BI 1.3 4.3
Commercial initiatives 1.3 -
LED lighting - 0.9
Online personalisation 0.2 0.3
Other 0.2 0.1
4.7 5.6
Recurring
New Stores 3.7 3.6
Refurbs 0.5 -
Relocations 0.7 0.4
Other capex 2.5 3.5
7.4 7.5
Total CAPEX 12.1 13.1
Capital policy
The Board aims to maintain a capital structure that is conservative yet efficient in terms of providing returns to
shareholders. In considering such returns, the Board will review, inter alia, trading and market conditions, expected
cash generation and expected leverage.
• Our policy is to maintain year-end net debt in the range of 1.0 to 2.0x EBITDA
• Over the short-to-medium term, we are targeting year end net debt of 1.7x EBITDA
• Subject to the above considerations, surplus cash will be returned to shareholders annually via a special dividend
FY19
£’m
FY18
£’m
FY17
£’m
Free cash flow 70.4 57.0 68.8
Dividends paid (48.9) (82.9) (81.1)
Proceeds from new shares issued - 0.3 0.3
Debt issue costs (1.5) - -
Net debt movement 20.0 (25.6) (12.0)
EBITDA leverage (at year-end) 1.58 1.72 1.37
Remains unchanged
Dividends
2.3 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.9
15.0 15.0 15.0
5.04.5
6.0 6.3 6.4
6.4
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Dividends(pence per share)
Interim Special Final
• Special dividend
• 5.0 pence per share
• Cash return of £17.1m from organic cash generation
• Paid on 14 December 2018 to those on register on 9
November 2018
• Interim ordinary dividend
• 2.9 pence per share
• Paid on 14 December 2018 to those on register on 9
November 2018
• Total cash returns since May 2014 IPO
• Including recommended final dividend of 6.4 pence per
share:
• 93.0 pence per share and over £317m in aggregate
• Equivalent to over 41% of IPO issue price
IFRS 16 LeasesNo cash impact and limited impact on EPS All £’m (unless otherwise stated) Estimated
Impact
* Outcome
Range (+/-)
Restatement of Financial Position (as at 31 Jan 2018)
IFRS 16 right-of-use assets 127 10
IFRS 16 lease liabilities (145) 10
Net IFRS 16 lease recognition (18) 3
Remove operating lease related prepayments and accruals 6 1
Impact on net assets as at 31 January 2018 (12) 3
Restatement of Income Statement (FY19)
Remove operating lease charges (EBITDA increase) 43 1
Replace with IFRS 16 depreciation and finance charge (41) 1
FY19 PBT increase under IFRS 16 versus IAS 17 2 1
Current estimate of adjusted FY19 UL EBITDA (vs. £89.4m) 132.4 (+48%) 1
Current estimate of adjusted FY19 UL PBT (vs. £74.6m) 76.6 (+3%) 1
Current estimate of adjusted FY19 UL EPS (vs. 17.6p) 18.1p (+3%) 0.2p
• Operating leases represented by a fixed
(“right-of-use”) asset with corresponding
lease liability (notional debt)
• P&L operating lease expense replaced by
asset depreciation and notional interest
charge in relation to the lease liability
• The Group intends to apply a full
retrospective application and currently
anticipates the approximate impact to be
as presented (table to right)
* All numbers remain subject to further developments in
application practice, refinement of assumptions, further
detailed review and audit – accordingly an outcome range is
presented
FY20 guidance
⚫ LFL sales Target is to maintain LFL sales despite expected high street footfall decline
⚫ New store openings Targeting 50 net new store openings in the UK and ROI
⚫ Business efficiencies Plans in place to mitigate industry-wide cost pressures, from NLW in particular
⚫ Online Further growth expected in CF Online
Four pillars of growth
Other
⚫ Operating margins Profits expected to be broadly in line with FY19, based on delivering management’s sales forecast, margin mix assumptions, identified
business efficiencies and assuming limited adverse currency movement
⚫ Capex FY20 capex of c£18m – including further investment in vertical integration, warehouse technology and replatforming of cardfactory.co.uk
⚫ Leverage* FY20 year-end Leverage expected to be in line with short-to-medium term year-end target of c1.7x EBITDA
⚫ Special dividend A further return is currently expected to be made towards the end of FY20 - any such dividend will be dependent on trading and other
developments in the period from now until the time of the FY20 interim results
* excluding the effects of IFRS 16 Leases
Headwinds easing
Financial performance summary
Strong profit
margins
Revenue
growth
Surplus cash
returns
Highly cash
generative
• The Card Market remains resilient with single card volume in slight decline, with value broadly flat
• Card Factory continued to grow value & volume share, gaining from both the grocers, discounters and other High Street stores
• Card Factory has 32.4% share by volume and 19.3% share by value
• The online channel continues to grow (+c10% pa) and now accounts for 4.6% of singles greeting card volumes
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
I would always bring a birthday
card to a friend’s birthday party
I always send Christmas cards
to all my friends and family
I would always give my child a card
to take to their friend’s birthday
If I am attending a wedding I
will always bring a card
I always send a Valentine card
to my significant other
I will always send a card to
celebrate a friend’s achievement
(e.g. driving test, graduating...)
Drivers Of Market Growth Consumer Survey
Source: OC&C Online Consumer Surveys (2012-19), OC&C analysis
Customer Attitudes and Purchasing Behaviour
Attitudes to Card Purchasing by Occasion1,2
Card Buyers by Usage of Digital Greetings1
(% of Total Card Buyers)
19%
2015
18%
2016
6%
78%
2017
Replace Physical Card
With Digital Alternative
20%
Use Digital Greetings But Not As
Replacement For Physical Card
Don’t Use Digital Greetings
100%
16%23%
64%
14%
2014
18%
100% 100% 100%
9%
71%
2018
62%
100%
51%
31%
4.24.0
4.0
2.03.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.6
3.5
4.4
2.5
4.8
3.0
4.5
5.0
Wilko’s
Price1
Card Factory
Hallmark
99p Store
Cards Galore
Morrisons
Paperchase
Clintons
Asda
Simply Clintons
Card Market
WH Smith
B&M Bargains
Co-op
M&S
Sainsbury’s
Tesco
AldiPoundland
Home Bargains
Post Office
Quality1
Waitrose
Consumer Perceptions of Greeting Cards Value for Money - 20191,2
Average Rating On Scale 1-5
Str
on
ge
r P
erc
ep
tio
n o
f L
ow
Pri
ce
Stronger Perception of Quality
Source: OC&C Consumer Survey (February 2019), OC&C analysis
1% 1% 1% 2%
2017
Online Only
2018
41%
2019
40% Cross-Channel
59%
100
58%
37%
In-Store Only
100
39%
62%
2016
100
58%
100
Source: OC&C Consumer Survey 2016,2017, 2018, 2019, OC&C analysis
Online Penetration and Purchase Channel
Online penetration estimated
from volumes of known players
and survey market shares
Based on online survey, therefore likely to
be skewed towards online shoppers
Respondent Purchase Channel, 2016-19
(% Respondents)1
Estimated Online Penetration, 2015-17
(% Volume)
Weighted by SCV
2.5%
0.8%
2015 2016
1.0%
2.6% 2.8%
4.6%
1.4%3.3%
2017
1.6%
3.0%
Non-Personalised
2018
Personalised
3.7%
4.2%+0.4%
+0.5%
+0.4%
6.7%
17.1%
40.0%
3.6%
0.9%
5.2%
20.2%
42.7%
5.7%
2.1%
12.5%
13.6%
34.9%
6.5%
3.0%
8.1%
12.9%
32.4%
n/a
Funkypigeon.com
Card Factory
Supermarkets1
Moonpig.com
Amazon
2017
2015
2016
2018
Online Retailer Market Shares
% Volume
Card Factory based on known volumes.
Other retailers based on online survey
FY19 Like for Like Sales
Overall LFL -0.1%
Store LFL -0.5%
Further improvements in
card ranges and design
including new ED premium
Strong performance in
seasonal cards
Continued growth in
average basket value
Competitive quality and
price position maintained
FY19 New Store Roll Out
972 trading stores
51 net new stores opened
First franchise store
opened in Jersey
Strong pipeline of new
store opportunities
FY19 Business Efficiencies
EBITDA margins of 20.5%
Improved vertical integration
Targeted cost efficiencies &
buying margin achieved
Significant savings in
warehouse and supply chain
Tasks removed in store
making it “Easier for
Colleagues”, “Best for
Customers”, Labour savings
FY19 Online Development
Cardfactory.co.uk sales
increased by 56.3%
Growth from new customers on
products not sold in stores
Profit contributor to the Group
Gettingpersonal.co.uk sales
decline
Customer Acquisition &
Discount impact on EBITDA
FY20 Like for Like
Design & Innovation in
Everyday card ranges,
introducing Premium ranges:
• Age cards
• Misc. & New “Occasions”
• Open cards
Innovation in complementary
gifting & party ranges
Continual enhancement of
retail disciplines
EPOS data ensuring better
ranging decisions
FY20 New Store Roll Out
FY20 strong pipeline for 50
net new stores
Continual opening on retail
parks
Further stores in Republic of
Ireland
Regular review of estate for
relocations, extensions &
closures to locate where the
customers shop
FY20 Business Efficiencies
Repatriate card
manufacturing from Far
East to Printcraft
Install & commission new
manufacturing equipment
to reduce card production
costs
Testing of new production
techniques
Efficient planning of People:
right time, right place with a
Time & Attendance System
Removing tasks,
simplifying processes –
focus on customers
Replenishment – efficient
and improved availability
with Auto Replenishment
in stores
Introduction of
Voice picking
Warehouse consolidation
Productivity
improvements in
Warehouse & Logistics
Targeted rent savings at
renewals
Loss Prevention
targeting Stock & Cash
Loss
Ongoing focus on
operating cost reduction
Stronger supplier
management
Better buying and
sourcing
Better stock
Management
FY20 Online Development
FY20 – Online Development
• Everyday vs Seasonal
• New categories and
ranges
• GP mobile site
• Customer retention
Apple and Google pay
• International
• Amazon
• Getting Personal
Business
• New marketing
channels
Non Branded Impulse Card Units Branded Card Factory Concessions
Franchised Locations
International Concessions
• Confident that we will continue to grow Card Factory’s Market Share
• Continuing to innovate new and unique designs offering Quality & Value
• Online represents a significant opportunity and will be developed through a new platform and growth of our multi-channel offer
• We are exploring opportunities to extend our reach beyond 1,200 stores both in the UK and Internationally
• Our targeted Business Efficiency programme continues to deliver and we have identified ongoing opportunities in a multi-year programme
• We have had a satisfactory start to the new year with good performances in both Valentine’s & Mother’s Day
• FY20 outlook is for a broadly flat EBITDA based on a challenging consumer market
• Currently expect to announce Special dividend payment at interims
• Card Factory future growth strategy will be shared at a Capital Markets Day later in the year
914
437
2013
920 932
2014
387
902923
2015
365
907
411343
2017
Boxed
1,343
Singles
2012
464
1,379 1,3571,311
1,271 1,245
2016
1.3%
-2.0%
-2.5%
95
2013
110
1,3301,277
Boxed
1,3141,285
2012 2014
89
1,325
2015
Singles
1,387 1,386 1,409 1,414
2016 2017
1,412 1,409
1,328
84 79101
0.8%
0.3%
0.0%
2012-17
-6.3%
-0.3%
-5.9%
0.8%
2016-17
-5.9%
-0.5%
-5.9%
0.1%
UK Greetings Card Market Value (£m)Market Volume (Millions Cards)
Total UK Greetings Card Market Evolution, 2012-161
CAGR
CAGR
Source: GCA, Management Data, UK Trade Data, OC&C Consumer Surveys (2012-19), Kantar, Nielson, OC&C analysis
2012-17 2016-17
Market size restated versus last
year due to restated Kantar data
31.8% 32.0% 32.5% 31.9%
31.5% 32.1% 31.7% 32.4%
6.0% 5.8% 5.4% 5.3%
27.9% 27.0% 27.0% 26.8%
2015
2.2% 2.3%1.8%
2014
1.1%2.0%
1.1%
2016
1.1% 1.2%
2017
Other High Street
(Incl. discounters)
Online
Specialists
Paperchase
Clintons
Card Factory
Grocers
Historical Data Restated Given Kantar Revisions - Bottom Up View
Single Greeting Cards – Volume
(% Total)
14-17
Singles Greetings Cards Channel Share Evolution, 2014-17
37.9% 38.3% 38.7% 37.9%
17.8% 18.4% 18.9% 19.3%
10.1% 9.9% 9.4% 9.2%
4.8% 5.5% 6.1% 6.6%
27.7% 26.2% 25.0% 24.9%
1.8%1.8%
20162014
1.7%
2015
Other High Street
(incl. Discounters)
2.0%
2017
Online
Specialists
Paperchase
Clinton Cards
Card Factory
Grocers
Single Greet Cards – Value
(% Total)
4.2%
-5.0%
-2.4%
-0.2%
-0.9%
16-17
7.5%
1.6%
-2.3%
% Change
8.7% 5.1%
14-17
-3.0%
16-17
-0.2%
% Change
Source: GCA, Management Data, UK Trade Data, OC&C Consumer Surveys (2012-19), Kantar, Nielson, OC&C analysis
-1.3%
-2.1%6.8%
-2.8%
3.2%
0.5%
10.2%
2.2%
-2.0%
11.7% 8.2%
-2.1%