Fossil free road transport? Trends and ideas in Sweden

JOINT WORKSHOP WITH IEA BIOENERGY

Infrastructure Compatible Transport Fuels

Olle Hådell

Sustainable supply of energy to transportation is a crucial issue.

•  Transportation is a cornerstone in a modern

society.

•  But climate change is a real threat/ Use of fossil

fuels has to be reduced to a fraction of the

volumes today •  How can a 2-degree target be combined with

mobility worldwide?

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

An

nu

al

pro

du

cti

on

(G

b/y

r)

Annual productionEUR=1800 GbEUR=2000 GbEUR=2200 GbEUR=2400 GbEUR=2600 Gb

Source: EIA, Energy Information AdministrationEUR: Estimated Ultimately Recoverable (global oil)

Gb = Gigabarrel

Means of promoting EEC´s in Sweden (environmentally enhanced cars)

Incentives addressing the cars favoured ´  Tax exemption for 5 years for EEV´s Biofuels, efficiency, ´  Procurement of vehicles purchased by govermental authorities Biofuels, ´  Exemption from congestion taxes in Stockholm Biofuels ´  Free parking in bigger cities Biofuels, efficiency ´  Reduced taxation of car benefit Biofuels, electricity ´  Vehicle taxation based on CO2 emissions Efficiency ´  Obligation for fuelling stations to provide biofuels E-85

´  Incentives addressing the fuels ´  Exemption of energy- and CO2-taxation for biofuels Biofuels ´  Support to pilot plants Lignocellulose, gasification

Fossile free road transportation - is that possible ?

´ Yes, if you can combine:

´  More efficient vehicles

´  Biofuels

´  Electrification

´  Change of transportation modes

´  Development of the society

Olle Hådell

To achieve this, there is a need for comprehensive strategies!

Energy efficiency

Renewable energy

Transport efficient society

Source: SOU 2013:84

More efficient cars

Driving forces:

´ EU directives:

130 g CO2/km 2012 -2015; 95 g CO2/km 2020

´ Offers common rules for all companies selling cars in Europe. Efficiency has become a highly prioritized issue.

´ Behaviour of Swedish buyers: ´ Sweden can´t affect the type of cars produced. But Swedish

incentives affect the selection of cars sold in Sweden.

Olle Hådell

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

80 130 180 230 280 330

Shar

e of

tota

l veh

icle

s

Tail pipe CO2 emissions (g/km)/ e.g. fuel consumption

Sweden 2007 Sweden 2010

A radical shift in Swedish car sales….

… caused by incentives, technical progress and image

EU trends

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Kold

ioxi

du

tslä

pp

(g

/km

) Tyskland

Finland

Sverige

Storbritannien

EU-15

Frankrike

Danmark

Olle Hådell

”Sweden was the bad guy”

Germany

Finland

Sweden

UK

EU-15

France

Dennmark

Source: SOU 2013:84

To get more efficient trucks is more complicated..

40 ton vehicle in real life)

Continously reduced fuel consumption

No development in fuel consumption

Heavy vehicles are a real challenge !

Biofuels

All links in the whole chain from well to wheel must be considered

´  Access to sustainable feedstock

´  Efficient and economical viable production

´  Appropriate number of retail stations

´  Access to engines designed for the fuel

´  Acceptance from the end user

Olle Hådell

Substitution of fossile diesel oil is crucial!

•  Already shortage of Diesel oil in Europe

•  Higher share of dieselcars due to regulations of fuel consumption.

•  Aviation fuels and diesel oil are competitors

•  Environmental marine regulations will raise demand for diesel oil?

´ Biofuels ought to be be used

in heavy vehicles

´  Biomethane

´  Synthetic diesel oil

´  Dimethyleter (DME)

´ Electrification of roads….

Threats Solutions

Swedens attempt to develope an E-85 market has failed

´  The incentives were to costly

´  Producing ethanol from woodchips was a bad idea

´  The Swedish market is to small to maintain an development for E-85 engines

Olle Hådell

Main pathways for biofuel development

Low blends in gasoline

Flex fuel cars

Cellulosic

Gasification of

Black liqour

Ethanol

Veg. oils/ Lignine

HVO/ syndiesel Biomethane

DME

Heavy vehicles

Diesel blending

Gasification of biomass

Methanol

Olle Hådell

Source: SOU 2013:84

•  Battery costs are still a bottleneck

•  City buses will be the first adaptors

•  Carpooling and other local fleets comes next

•  Access to charging points is cruicial •  Can continous or intermittent

charging be realised?

Electrification

Olle Hådell

Olle Hådell

Reducing use of fossile fuels in road transport in Sweden

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2010   2030  modest   2030  op3mis3c  

Scenarios  2030  

Fossile  

Biofuels  

Electrifica3on  

Efficient  cars  

Development  of  society  

Source: SOU 2013:84

Conclusions ´  Shortage of diesel fuel is likely. Renewable dieselsubstitute is cruical

especially for heavy vehicles ´  Engine development is costly and need large harmonized markets

to be profitable. ´  The ability of the carfleets to absorbe dedicated fuels as ethanol,

methanol, DME etc. is limited. Drop in is a ”dream”. ´  Three types of biofuel production have to be developed:

´  Fuels from gasification ´ Drop in fuels from lignine

´ Ethanol from cellulose

´  A clear long term target is cruical. The development of biofuels have to be continous and comprehensive.

Olle Hådell

Thank you!

Olle Hådell

ollehadell@telia.com

+46 70 563 71 92

Olle Hådell

Means of promoting EEC´s in Sweden (environmentally enhanced cars) Incentives addressing the cars ´  Incentives for EEC´s bought by private car buyers ´  Tax exemption for 5 years for EEV´s ´  Procurement of vehicles purchased by govermental authorities ´  Exemption from congestion taxes in Stockholm ´  Free parking in bigger cities ´  Reduced taxation of car benefit ´  Vehicle taxation based on CO2 emissions ´  Obligation for fuelling stations to provide biofuels

´  Incentives addressing the fuels ´  Exemption of energy- and CO2-taxation for biofuels ´  Support to pilot plants

Means of promoting EEC´s in Sweden (environmentally enhanced cars) Incentives addressing the cars ´  Incentives for EEC´s bought by private car buyers ´  Tax exemption for 5 years for EEV´s ´  Procurement of vehicles purchased by govermental authorities ´  Exemption from congestion taxes in Stockholm ´  Free parking in bigger cities ´  Reduced taxation of car benefit ´  Vehicle taxation based on CO2 emissions ´  Obligation for fuelling stations to provide biofuels

´  Incentives addressing the fuels ´  Exemption of energy- and CO2-taxation for biofuels ´  Support to pilot plants