+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Fossil Fuel Option and Japan-US Cooperation

Fossil Fuel Option and Japan-US Cooperation

Date post: 28-Oct-2021
Category:
Upload: others
View: 3 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
12
Fossil Fuel Option and Japan-US Cooperation SPF-WWC Joint Seminar 31 October, 2012 Tsutomu Toichi The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)
Transcript

Fossil Fuel Option and

Japan-US Cooperation

SPF-WWC Joint Seminar

31 October, 2012

Tsutomu Toichi

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)

2

Higher Uncertainties of Oil & Gas Supply from the Middle East

-Spreading of “Arab Spring” from North Africa to the Middle East

-Qatar has become the world’s top LNG exporter

-Increasing geopolitical risks due to the Iran’s nuclear crisis

Geopolitical Risks in the Middle East

Possibility of military attack to Iran by Israel

Civil war in Syria

Conflict between North and South Sudan

Continuing violence and political instability in Iraq

Iran’s nuclear program and economic sanctions by US and EU

Libya Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Tunisia

Qatar UAE

Strait of Hormuz

3

Japan’s Fossil Fuel Dependence on Middle East

The share of Middle Eastern oil remains high at above 80%.

Middle Eastern LNG supply has significantly increased last year to make up for the lost nuclear power generation.

Japan’s crude oil imports by country

Source: METI; IEEJ

Japan’s LNG imports by country

27%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

'000 tons

Others

Australia

Russia

Indonesia

Malaysia

UAE

Oman

Qatar

Middle East %

86%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

mill

ion K

L

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Others

Indonesia

Russia

Oman

Kuwait

Qatar

Iraq

Iran

UAE

Saudi

Arabia

Middle

East %

4 4

Japan’s Power Generation by Supply Sources

21.3 21.6 21.2 21.0 21.5 22.3

23.0 23.6 24.4 24.232.3 35.2

12.2 10.5 6.6 7.3

13.617.222.5 23.1 26.0 25.5

9.5

11.1 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.9 12.6

1.8

11.211.210.710.810.39.8

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012

石炭

天然ガス

石油等

水力・再エネ

原子力

32% 33% 37% 36% 21% 13%準国産

電力シ ェ ア

自家発

( )内は太陽光・風力(0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.5)(0.3) (0.4)

68% 67% 63% 64% 79% 87%化石燃料シェ ア

Source: IEEJ, July 2012

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil

Renewables

Nuclear

Self-Generation

Fossil Fuel

Domestic Supply

5

Historical Trend of Japan’s LNG Imports by Country

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1969 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 11

×1000 Ton

その他

ロシア

赤道ギニア

ナイジェリア

オマーン

UAE

ブルネイ

カタール

オーストラリア

マレーシア

インドネシア

米国

83,183

54,157

36,077

16,965

182

70,562

Others

Russia

Guinea

Nigeria

Oman

UAE

Brunei

Qatar

Australia

Malaysia

Indonesia

US

Note: LNG imports in 2012 is estimated to be about 88 million ton by IEEJ.

fiscal year

6

Natural Gas Prices in Japan, EU and US

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Henry Hub

Japan

Russia-Germany (Border)

Japan LNG

US Henry Hub

Germany

($/MMBtu)

-Japan: LNG imported prices are linked to the Japan crude cocktail

-Germany: Border gas price from Russia is linked to prices of heating oil and heavy fuel

-US: Spot prices at the Henry Hub in the Gulf coast

7 Source: IEEJ

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

大西洋向け売主自社マーケティング

事業化検討中プロジェクト

SPA・HOA締結済プロジェクト

既存プロジェクト

高需要ケース

低需要ケース

100万トン

LNG Outlook in Asia and Middle East

High Demand

Low Demand

Existing Capacity

Divertible LNG from Atlantic

Planning

Projects with SPA/HOA signed

Million Ton

8

North American LNG Exports to Asia

Export Potential of

over 100 MT/year

Asian market

targeted due to

price difference

Export authorization

as an uncertainty

Sabine

(Cheniere, 18MT)Freeport

(Freeport LNG 11-22MT)

LNG,Corpus Christi

(Cheniere, 14MT)

Kitimat

(Apache/EOG/EnCana, 5-10MT)

Douglas Channel

(BC LNG Export, 2MT)

LNG Canada

(Shell/Mitsubishi/KOGAS/CNPC, 12MT)

Lake Charles

(Southern/BG, 15MT)

Jordan Cove

(Veresen, 9MT)

Cove Point

(Dominion, 8MT)

Cameron

(Sempra, 12MT)

Gulf Coast LNG

(Gulf Coast LNG, 22MT)

Alaska North Slope

(ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, BP)

24MT)

E

T

E

Project participated by Japanese companies

9

1. Diversification of supply sources - Traditional suppliers: ASEAN, Australia and Middle East

- North America: New business model for LNG imports

- Russia: LNG and pipeline gas in the long run

- Africa: New projects from East Africa

2. Diversification of fuels for power generation - Coal use with Clean Coal Technologies

- Restart of nuclear plants under the new safety regulation

3. Market reform of the electric power industry

- More competition by unbundling the power system

- Investment in power plants by LNG suppliers of

NOCs/IOCs

Measures for LNG supply security with affordable costs

10

11

Source: Kensuke Suzuki “Toshiba's Activity in Clean Coal and Carbon Capture Technology for Thermal Power Plants” presented at the APEC Clean Fossil Energy Technical and Policy Seminar, February, 2012

12

Energy Security and Japan-US Cooperation

1. Recent developments in the Middle East causes additional risks to Japan’s energy security. Both countries should prepare how to respond to oil and LNG supply disruption.

2. Post-Fukushima Japan will depend more on gas, at least for the short/medium-term. US DOE approval of LNG export to Japan is very useful for strengthening the natural resource alliance of both countries.

3. Diffusion of Clean Coal Technologies to Asian countries are effective to reduce CO2 emissions as well as to improve energy security in Asia. Two countries could cooperate to introduce the “Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism”.


Recommended