Strictly Private and Confidential
Citi Markets & Securities Services – Business Advisory Services
10th January 2019
Four Trends Re-Shaping Investment Management Presentation for the Economic Club of Florida
For Institutional Clients Only
Citi Business Advisory Services
Global: Sandy Kaul, 212-723-5118 [email protected]
EMEA: Robert Crossley, +44 (0) 207 986 9255 [email protected]
US: Matt Kummell, 212-723-2848 [email protected]
Agenda
2
Improved Factor Understanding Drives New Thinking About Portfolio Construction
Investors Demonstrate a Significant Shift to Passive Over Actively Managed Funds
Actively Managed Funds Re-Align to High Conviction, Thematic & Alternatives
Emerging Technologies Offer Potential to Democratize Access to Real Assets
1
Rethinking Asset Class Diversification
3
Equities
Bonds
Alternatives
Exposure to
Companies
Common Factor
Exposures
Volatility
Inflation
Growth
Momentum
Geography
Sector
Equities
Credit
Rates
Hedge Funds
Private Equity
Real Assets
Common Factor
Exposures
Inflation
Growth
Liquidity
Currency
Geography
Sector
Co
mp
an
ies
Real Assets
Rates
Diversified
Asset
Class
Exposures
Since the late 1950s, investors have sought to build diversified portfolios of asset class
exposures that seek to balance risk and reward, but our understanding of risk is evolving
• By diversifying across asset
classes, investors should be
able to find the best possible
return for the least possible risk
• Asset classes are not mutually exclusive units
• Many are comprised of exposure to a set of
companies that share common risks
• Real assets and rate-linked
investments also share many
common risk factors, several of which
overlap with company risk factors
Evolving Understanding of Portfolio Diversification
Source: Citi Business Advisory Services
2
Risk Balancing
4
Equities
Bonds
Alternatives
0
Over-
Exposed
Desired Range
Asset Class Fund Allocations
Volatility
Inflation
Growth
Momentum
Liquidity
Duration
Credit Risk
Real Rates
Emerging
Markets
Factor Exposures
To ensure diversification without disrupting their existing fund allocation, some institutions go long
or short specific factor exposures outside their desired range to balance their portfolio holdings
Aggregate
Exposures
Adjusting for Factor Exposures at a Portfolio Level
Buy
Exposure
Sell
Exposure
Under-
Exposed
• Many sophisticated institutional investors look to manage their unintended
factor exposures, but there is significant debate as to whether this practice
undermines the value of the core allocations Source: Citi Business Advisory Services
3
Re-Categorizing Allocations Based on Return Profile
Equities
Bonds
Alternatives
Asset Class
Low
Volatility
Bond-
Like
Returns
Higher
Volatility
Equity-
Like
Returns
Illiquid
Limited
Mark-to-
Market
Returns
Quant
Long-
Short EQ
Emerging
Markets
Equity
Distressed
Bonds
G-10
Rates
Fund
Systematic
Macro
Return Profile
Other investors are re-thinking whether asset classes are the best way to categorize and diversify
their portfolio—many are beginning to re-assign strategies based on their return profile
Re-Assigning Strategies Based on their Return Profile • A wide variety of sub-strategies can be
found within the Equity, Bond and
Alternatives buckets
• Sub-strategies offer highly divergent
return profiles:
•
• ,Some align to low volatility bond-
like returns
• Some align to higher volatility
equity-like returns and
• Others are illiquid and very long-
term in nature and are thus only
occasionally marked-to-market to
track their contribution
• Some institutions have now begun to re-
categorize these various sub-strategies
and group them more effectively to reflect
the types of risks and return streams they
offer to the portfolio
• This is seen as helping ensure better
diversification and more effective risk
control according to participants in
proprietary Citi surveys
Source: Citi Business Advisory Services
4
Re-Thinking Sources of Investment Returns
Improved risk technologies allow investors to slice and dice portfolios to look more deeply into
what is the driver of returns and thus better isolate and target the specific sources of returns
Sources of Investment Returns
Source: Citi Business Advisory Services
Technical
Factors:
Idiosyncratic
Exposures
Momentum
Volatility
Duration
Liquidity etc.
Style
Factors
Growth
Value
Quality
Credit Grade etc.
Risk
Factors
Sector
Exposures
Geographic
Exposures
Financials
Automotive
Energy
Consumer Goods etc.
Local Market
Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
Specific Countries etc.
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Credit Risk—Ability to Repay
Equity Risk—Earnings on Cash
Inflation Sensitivity etc.
Asset
Selection
& Capacity
Fund or Portfolio
Return Attribution
5
Increasing Use of Index Exposures in Portfolio Construction
Technical
Factors
Style
Factors
Risk
Factors
Sector
Exposures
Geographic
Exposures Asset
Allocation
EQ B A
External
Active
Managers
Active
Index
Selection
External
Active
Managers
A more precise view of the various sources of return for the portfolio allows investors to replace
many expensive active managers with low cost indices for much of their exposures
Shifting Approach to Portfolio Construction Traditional Approach Emerging Approach
Idiosyncratic
Exposures
Source: Citi Business Advisory Services
6
Agenda
Improved Factor Understanding Drives New Thinking About Portfolio Construction
Investors Demonstrate a Significant Shift to Passive Over Actively Managed Funds
Actively Managed Funds Re-Align to High Conviction, Thematic & Alternatives
Emerging Technologies Offer Potential to Democratize Access to Real Assets
7
Impact of Rising Index Offerings
Technology is enabling managers to dynamically identify and construct indices or baskets of
securities to provide exposure to specific factors, shifting factor-related returns from alpha to beta
Reclassification of Outperformance to Beta
Source: Citi Business Advisory Services. *“What’s Behind the Falling Number of Public Companies?”, Vanguard.com,
https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/advisor/researchcommentary/article/IWE_InvResBhndFallPublCompanies
*1995: 32 Stocks to
Each Tradable Index
2016: 1.2 Tradable Indices
To Each Stock
• The ever-expanding variety of tradable index offerings are allowing investors to directly access sources of return
that used to only be available through active management and that were considered to be “outperformance”
• Now those return sources can be captured as an alternate type of market return or “beta”, helping to explain why
increasingly, investors are only viewing idiosyncratic returns as alpha-generating
8
Drivers of New Portfolio Construction Approach
28
59
37
14
4 6 6
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
US Large Cap US Small/MidCap
Non-US EQ US FI (Core)
Active Managers Passive Funds
Actively Managed vs. Passive Fund Fees
Actual Paid by Institutional Investors: 2016
Ba
sis
Po
ints
*Data as of 2017. Sources: Left-hand Chart: Citi Business Advisory Services analysis based on proprietary data subscriptions to SimFund and eVestment. US Mutual fund data from
www.ici.org. Right hand chart: Callan 2017 Investment Management Fee Survey. Active fees are for the largest category of investor (cheapest fees) and passive fees represent average
across all investor bands. https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Callan-2017-Investment-Manager-Fee-Survey.pdf
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Nu
mb
er
of F
un
ds
Growth in Number of Passive Fund Offerings
ETFs & US Index Funds
1,667
7,593
The number of index offerings increased 4.5X between 2007 and 2017—the growing variety of
index offerings and cost advantage is helping drive the move away from actively managed funds
AUM Growth by Category
2007-Q3 2018:
Equity ETFs: +5.7X $3.9T
Bond ETFs: +13.4X $823B
Int’l ETFs: +7.2X $767B
Asian ETFs: +8.6X $508B
US Index MFs: +3.9x $3.4T*
• The number of passive fund offerings has expanded
dramatically in the past decade
• Growth has occurred across a wide range of categories,
boosting the variety of indices that investors can choose
to gain exposure
• Smart Beta funds that isolate specific technical and style
factors are further expanding investor options
+4.5x
• Fee advantages are a major reason that many investors
are choosing to utilize low-cost ETFs and indices
• The largest institutional investors that can command the
lowest fees paid between 14 bps for US Core Fixed
Income and 59 bps for US Small/Mid-Cap actively
managed funds in 2016 according to Callan
• By contrast, the range for passive funds was 4-6 bps
9
Decisive Shift to Passive Fund Exposures
37
786 531
190
-432 -549
679
-145
424
515
461
647
640 927
1,263
282
564
-290
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18
Investo
r F
low
s
(US
D b
illio
ns)
Passive
Active
Passive Funds
2011-H1 2018 : $5.2T
2015-H1 2018: +$3.1T
Active Funds
2011-H1 2018: +$1.1T
2015-H1 2018: -$447B
Comparison of Net New Flows into Actively Managed vs. Passive Funds
Since 2011,net new investor flows into passive funds has outstripped flows into actively managed
funds by nearly 5X – with flows into active managers showing a net negative since 2015
• Net investor flows into passive funds topped $5.0 trillion between 2011 and H1 2018, a figure 4.7X larger than the
net new flows into actively managed funds
• Active fund managers have in particular struggled since 2015 as both the financial press and global regulators have
been vocal in their views about how fees negatively impact long-term returns. Since 2015, actively managed funds
have registered outflows of $447 billion through H1 2018
10
Source: Citi Business Advisory Services based on proprietary data subscriptions to Morningstar, eVestment and Simfund
Improved Factor Understanding Drives New Thinking About Portfolio Construction
Investors Demonstrate a Significant Shift to Passive Over Actively Managed Funds
Actively Managed Funds Re-Align to High Conviction, Thematic & Alternatives
Emerging Technologies Offer Potential to Democratize Access to Real Assets
Agenda
11
Select
Cross-
Universe
Securities
Shifting Goals for Actively Managed Funds
Performance / Benchmark
Benchmark Universe Benchmark Universe
Benchmark
High Conviction Sub-Set Full Set of Securities
Benchmark
Universe
Benchmark
Universe
Benchmark
Universe
Traditional Active Funds
Active managers with returns too close to a benchmark that can be replicated through a cheaper
index fund are becoming more active in their security selection to generate differentiated returns
High Conviction Funds Thematic Funds
Performance Performance
Actively-Managed More Actively-Managed
• Traditional actively managed funds
overweight or underweight securities
across the entire benchmark universe to
outperform—this makes for returns
tightly clustered around the benchmark
• High conviction funds choose a sub-set
of securities, concentrating their bets
across a fewer number of names so
that correct choices can outperform the
benchmark by a more significant degree
• Thematic funds choose securities
across several benchmark universes,
uniting those choices by a common
characteristic in the pursuit of
uncorrelated opportunistic returns
Source: Citi Business Advisory Services
12
Market Share Changes
2008 to H1 2018
Growth Accelerates in New Active Fund Categories
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Active Core Specialty Long (Ex-ESG)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 H1 2018
Active Core Specialty Long (ex-ESG)
27% 35%
65% 73%
AUM Growth 2008 to H1 2018
+$8.6T
+$7.6T
• Specialty long funds that include
high conviction strategies added
nearly as much AUM as active
core funds over the past decade
• Specialty long funds grew by
115% between 2008 and H1
2018,rising from $6.6 trillion to
$14.2 trillion and gaining 8%
market share over active core
• Active core grew 47.5% in the
corresponding period from $18.0
to $26.6 trillion—losing 8% share
Though AUM in traditional long only active core funds rose over the past decade, the pace of
growth trailed those funds that offer more specialized or thematic strategies
Bill
ions o
f D
olla
rs
350
550
750
950
1,150
1,350
1,550$1.4T
$639B
Growth in ESG / Impact Funds
Bill
ions o
f D
olla
rs
• The most widely recognized category of thematic funds are those
that isolate companies that lead their industries in environmental,
societal or governance practices (aka ESG or impact funds)
• Total AUM has more than doubled in these funds over the past
decade, rising to $1.4 trillion in H1 2018
• In our proprietary surveys, Institutional investors cite their belief that
these companies will outperform their peers over time due to already
existing practices and investments whereas retail and wealth
investors focus on these funds as a way of impacting the world with
their investment dollars
+48% +115%
Sources: Top charts: Citi Business Advisory Services analysis based on the Boston Consulting Group Global Asset Management Study 2018, https://www.bcg.com/en-
us/publications/2018/global-asset-management-2018-digital-metamorphosis.aspx Bottom Chart: Citi Business Advisory Services analysis based on proprietary data subscriptions to
Morningstar and eVestment 13
More Opportunities & Interest in Private Markets More foundational issues exist in the publicly traded markets beyond a shifting approach to active
management and the move to passive--more and more activity is occurring in the private markets
Source Left Hand Chart: Citi Business Advisory Services Analysis based on proprietary subscription to Preqin. Source Right Hand Chart: Citi Business Advisory Services based on
Dealogic data to 30 June 2017
• Ready availability of private capital is allowing more companies to forego the public markets – especially small firms
with valuations below $50 million; more growth opportunities are now only to be found in the private markets
• Many private companies express concern about short-termism in the public markets; institutional investors also see the
focus on short-term financial results as out of sync with what is required to sustain long-term growth
• While cash may be available, staying private makes it harder for their employees to monetize their wealth tied up in
these companies and boxes investors unable to meet suitability thresholds out of many growth opportunities
Dry Powder in Private Equity Investments Downward trend in US & European IPOs
14
190
-432 -549
679
-145
647 640
927
1,263
282
880 907
812
1,043
433
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18
(US
D B
illio
ns)
Alternative Flows Dominate, Focus on Most Illiquid
Total Industry Net Flows: Active, Passive & Alternative
2014 to H1 2018
Source left hand chart: Citi Business Advisory Services based on proprietary data subscriptions to Morningstar, eVestment, Simfund, HFR, and Preqin.
Right hand chart: Citi Business Advisory Services based on proprietary data subscriptions to Simfund, Preqin and HFR..
Net inflows into Alternative products outstripped passive flows in recent years with 79% of that
money going to the industry’s most illiquid assets in private equity, real estate & infrastructure
• Global flow data shows that investors have moved into
illiquid funds and private markets in their search for yield
and diversification
• While flows into passively traded funds from 2014 to H1
2018 totaled $3.8 trillion, alternative fund flows were +8%
larger at $4.1 trillion in the corresponding period. These
figures compare to a net outflow of -$257 billion from
actively managed funds
• Flows have not just been directed to alternatives as a
whole, but into the two most illiquid portions of the
alternatives space
• Private equity inflows totaled $2.0 trillion between 2014
and H1 2018 (49%) and real estate and infrastructure
accounted for $1.2 trillion (30%)
Alternatives: +$4.1T
Passive: +$3.8T
Active: -$257B
Private Equity $2,006 B
49%
Infrastructure & Real Estate
$1,221 B 30%
Private Debt $467 B
12%
Liquid Alts $323 B
8%
Hedge Funds $58 B
1%
Breakdown of Inflows into Alternatives 2014 - 1H18 ($4.1Tn)
15
79%
80.1% 74.2%
97%
16.9% 22.2%
0%
50%
100%
Corp DB Public DB IRAs
Cash
Alternatives
Equities & Bonds
Demographic Challenges for Industry
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$6.6T
$2.1T
$5.3T
Baby Boomer Retirements
Assets Managed for Institutions Less
Assets Managed for Individuals (US)
Accelerating Baby Boomer retirements are shifting the industry to one where individuals will be
left to manage more of their own money, resulting in less robust and diverse portfolios
2017 Portfolio Allocation
U.S. Corporate & Public DB Plans vs. IRAs
Individuals limited
to equity & bonds
• The bulk of professionally managed U.S. assets are
invested on behalf of institutions that can use their
more sophisticated status to access a wider array of
illiquid and sophisticated investment options
• With Baby Boomers retiring and pulling their money
out of defined benefit and defined contribution plans,
there is a shift underway—by the early 2020s, more
of the industry’s assets are going to be managed on
behalf of individuals, not institutions
• Institutional investors have shifted a significant share of
their portfolio into alternative investments
• These alternative investments offer both an illiquidity
premium and the potential to access cash flows
uncorrelated to listed companies
• Individuals are limited to such public companies in their
investment options and most are over-exposed to only
one real asset—their home
Sources: Left hand chart: Citi Business Advisory Services analysis based on proprietary data subscription to Cerrulli Associates. Right hand chart: Citi Business Advisory Services analysis
based on proprietary data subscription to Cerulli Associates and on Willis Towers Watson Global Pension Assets Study 2017, https://www.willistowerswatson.com/en/insights/2017/01/global-
pensions-asset-study-2017, proprietary subscriptions to Hedge Fund Research (HFR), Morningstar, eVestment, SimFund, and Preqin, http://investments.yale.edu/about-the-yio/
16
Improved Factor Understanding Drives New Thinking About Portfolio Construction
Investors Demonstrate a Significant Shift to Passive Over Actively Managed Funds
Actively Managed Funds Re-Align to High Conviction, Thematic & Alternatives
Emerging Technologies Offer Potential to Democratize Access to Real Assets
Agenda
17
Understanding the Architecture Underlying Digital Assets
Blockchain / Distributed Ledgers
Smart Contracts
Big Data & AI Analytics
Pro
du
ct
Arc
hit
ec
ture
Cryptocurrencies Coin Offerings
Ne
w P
rod
uc
ts
• New digital assets have garnered many headlines and
resulted in highly volatile and unregulated parallel capital
markets activity
• Regulators are looking into establishing rules for these
markets, but their future is uncertain
• The architecture that these products are built upon,
however, can be levered to create registered investment
products that may democratize access to alternatives
Early digital assets such as Bit Coin have been greeted with widespread skepticism by many but
the architecture underlying such assets may help democratize access to alternative investments
Digital Assets & their Underlying Architecture
• Big Data & AI Analytics: New technologies developed
by Google allow for the processing of huge, unstructured
data sets and the application of “smart” toolkits such as
machine learning and natural language processing
• Smart Contracts: New digital contracts code in the
terms of execution, link such terms to specific data-driven
triggers that can be monitored using Big Data & AI
analytics and allow for the self-execution of those terms
when a trigger is activated
• Distributed Ledgers: Distributed ledgers record
transactions but have 3 advantages over traditional
ledgers: 1) all interested parties can simultaneously see
transactions; 2) each transaction is secured by two
independently verified crypto-keys; 3) the entire history of
each transaction is contained in each entry Source: Citi Business Advisory Services
18
New Shared Ownership Models for Access to Real Assets
Carve Out Minority
Share of a Real
Asset
Divide Minority
Share of Asset Up
into Individual Units
Access Natural
Level of Demand by
Fractionalizing Unit
• Co-investing in real assets
features a majority asset owner
“sharing” their ownership
stake with either an outside
entity or the crowd
• Unitizing assets entails
breaking up the shared
investable pool into a pre-
determined number of fixed
pieces
• Tokenizing each investable unit
allows demand be adjusted down
to fractional bits that can meet
trading interest from both large
and small investors
Tokenization might enable today’s models around crowd-investing and unitization for ownership of
real assets to extend to a more democratized set of investors with smaller liquidity thresholds
MAJORTY
SHARE OF
REAL ASSET
MINORITY
SHARE OF
REAL ASSET
MINORITY
SHARE OF
REAL ASSET
UNITS OF
REAL ASSET
OWNERSHIP
TOKENS OF
REAL ASSET
OWNERSHIP
FRACTIONAL UNITS
IDENTICAL
SMART
CONTRACTS
DESCRIBING
OWNERSHIP
RIGHTS SEPARATE
CONTRACT
DESCRIBING
MINORITY
OWNERSHIP RIGHTS
SEPARATE STANDARDIZED
CONTRACTS DESCRIBING
UNIT OWNERSHIP RIGHTS
BLOCKCHAIN LEDGER
ABILITY TO REASSEMBLE
FRACTIONAL UNITS BACK
TO ORIGINAL WHOLE
Source: Citi Business Advisory Services
19
Opportunity for Financial Instrument Innovation Survey participants in our Industry Revolution report envision new real asset models and the
blueprint underlying cryptocurrencies to create a new investment instrument--Ownits
• Expand the “shared ownership” model to a broad set of
real assets
• Make this approach affordable by dividing these assets up
into units
• Create a new registered digital token using smart
contracts that define the rights of the unit owners and embed
the contracts into the blockchain
• Facilitate fractionalization and secondary liquidity
• Leverage existing primary and secondary market
transmission mechanisms
New Solution:
New Liquid
Ownership Units
(Ownits)
Source: Citi Business Advisory Services
20
Ownits as New Investment Vehicles
Ownits would create the ability to have a listed ownership unit that offers the owner both financial
and non-financial rights to the underlying asset as well as a set of utilization rights
Model of an Ownit
Ownits may offer a series of financial and non-
financial rights in the underlying asset:
• Financial Rights: Total return investment,
including both cash flow participation and
long-term appreciation of the underlying
asset
• Ownership Rights: The Ownit owner can list
Ownits on their financial statement, pass the
Ownit on to their heirs or choose to transfer
ownership to another holder
• Utilization Rights: Ownit holders could partake
in the utilization of their asset via incentives
such as discounted rates and preferential
consideration for use or access
Source: Citi Business Advisory Services
21
Ownits Might Be Used to Solve Many Investor Problems
Institutional Investor
Frees Up Liquidity in
Existing Real Asset Holding
Pension Plan Supplements
Liability Shortfall via
Extension of
Utilization Rights
Individual Business Owner
Finances Capital
Improvements Through
Shared Ownership Model
Use Cases to Highlight Potential of New Investment Template
• Problem: Institutional investor
currently owns a real asset such as a
shopping mall but they need some
liquidity and do not wish to sell their
entire stake and/or other investors are
against any overall asset sale
• Solution: Investor might carve out a
minority share of their investment and
sell the right to participate in their
investment to the crowd via a
tokenized offering
• Benefit: Incoming cash for the
institution and an ability for individuals
to both own a portion of the property
and participate in its revenue-
generation and appreciation
• Problem: Pension does not have
sufficient assets to meet their full
liability to members
• Solution: Pension might invest in
an asset that individuals could
utilize such as a housing
community and offer members
“credits” via tokens to use the
asset/ live in the community to
offset owed liabilities
• Benefit: Long-term asset that
should generate income and
appreciate for pension fund and
utilization benefit for retired
pension member to offset any
benefit shortfall
• Problem: Individual owner
needs capital to expand or
improve their business but does
not want to take on additional
debt or partners
• Solution: Individual could allow
local institutions or a pool of
individuals to take on a minority
ownership in their business via a
tokenized offering
• Benefit: Incoming cash for the
individual business owner and an
incentivized pool of local owners
to support their business and
exposure to a new asset and
potential cash flow for investors
Both institutional and individual investors may find benefits through the use of real asset tokens
that could both democratize access to new types of investments and support more localization
Source: Citi Business Advisory Services
22
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