Four  Real-­‐World  Randomised  Controlled  Trials  Evalua6ng  Innova6ve  Programmes  Designed  to  Prevent  Children’s  Pathways  

into  Crime      Nick  Axford1,  Tim  Hobbs1,  Sarah  Heilmann1,  Georgina  Warner1,  Catherine  Erskine1,  Luke  Timmons1,  Laura  Whybra1,  Tom  Wilkinson1,  VashC  Berry2  and  Obioha  Ukoumunne3    1  The  Social  Research  Unit  at  DarCngton  2  PenCLAHRC  Peninsula  Medical  School  (Plymouth  University  Peninsula  Schools  of  Medicine  and  DenCstry)    3  University  of  Exeter  Medical  School    

The  Social  Research  Unit  (SRU)  

 •  Specialist  research  charity    based  in  DarCngton,  Devon,    with  offices  in  London    and  Glasgow      •  Mission:  to  bring  science    and  evidence  to  bear    on  policy  and  pracCce    related  to  children  and    young  people.                

•  Intensive  Supervision  and  Support  Programme  (ISSP)  for  persistent  young  offenders  

 

•  Youth  at  Risk  programme  for  young  people  displaying  anC-­‐social  behaviour  

 

•  AtlanCc  Philanthropies  (internaConal  foundaCon)  –  advised  on  evaluaCon  strategy  for  Ireland  à  funded  20  RCTs  

 

•  Three  RCTs  for  Birmingham  City  Council:  Triple  P  and  Incredible  Years  parenCng  programmes  and  school-­‐based  PromoCng  AlternaCve  Thinking  Strategies  (PATHS)  programme  

 

•  KiVa  –  school-­‐based  trial  of  anC-­‐bullying  programme  in  Wales  

SRU’s  previous  experience  with  RCTs  

•  Funded  by  the  BIG  LoQery  Fund  (£25m  investment  over  5  years)  

•  Building  the  evidence  base  for  what  works  to  prevent  youth  offending    

•  Replica6on  of  intervenCons  with  either  proven  or  preliminary  evidence  of  impact  

•  25  interven6ons  designed  to  divert  8-­‐14  year  olds  away  from  pathways  into  crime  

•  SRU  supports  programmes  by  means  of  interven6on  refinement  and  rigorous  evalua6on.    

•  Four  intervenCons  selected  for  evaluaCon  by  RCT  

•  Contribute  to  building  the  evidence  base  of  early  intervenCon  programmes  in  the  UK  

Four  Real-­‐World  Randomised  Controlled  Trials    

Reconn

aissance  +  

Refin

emen

t  Protocol  

Ethics  

Baseline  

Delivery  

Final  follow-­‐up  

Analysis  

Final  rep

ort  

Chance  UK    mentoring  YMCA  ‘Plusone’  mentoring  Malachi  parent  programme  Ariel  Trust    ‘Face-­‐Up’  

Trial  progress  

SHORT&TERM:

Improved&behaviour

IN&LATER&LIFE:

Reduced&involvement&in&an?social&behaviour&and/or&the&criminal&jus?ce&system

Achieving&poten?al&and&contribu?ng&posi?vely&to&society

Higher'self+esteem

Higher'self+efficacy

Improved'posi7ve'coping'skills

Improved'social'and'rela7onship'skills

Improved'decision+making'skills

Improved'ability'to'regulate'emo7ons'and'behaviour

Higher'aspira7ons

Mentoring)rela,onship

Behaviourmanagement

Parent5focused)work

&)

Joint)&groupsessions

ImagineProblem5free)talk

)encouragestrengths

Solu,on5focused)approach

Iden,fy!))Posi,ve

feedback

a)beAerfuture

Broadeninghorizons

Interac,vetasks)with

a)purpose

seCng)&Goal5

goal)work

MEDIATING OUTCOMES

OUTCOMES

CORE COMPONENTS

Theory of change Chance UK mentoring

Chance  UK  mentoring  

YMCA  Scotland  ‘Plusone’  mentoring    

Malachi  Community  Trust  Paren6ng  Programme  

Ariel  Trust  ‘Face-­‐Up’  school  based  programme    

Increased !Confidence!

•  To employ communication skills!

•  Ask for help!

Increased !Knowledge!

•  Safe & appropriate / risky behaviour!

•  people and resources to turn to for help!

Intermediate!Outcomes!

Improved norms about what is acceptable behaviour!

(respect, value opinions)!

Increased likelihood of bystanders to

effectively intervene!

INOK Intervention !Inputs!

Improved Communication !

Skills!

•  Positive expression!

•  Refusal skills!•  Negotiation skills!•  How to ask for

help!

Mechanisms!

Video exercises – analysis of unwanted

behaviour!

Character profiles & videos – developing

strategies to resist peer pressure!

Debate – Practicing skills associated with assertiveness!

Character profiles & videos –  developing  strategies  to  resist  peer  

pressure  !

Debate –  PracCcing  skills  associated  with  asserCveness  

Ask Emma – minimising harm & reducing risk!

Research / Presentation – where to

get advice & support!

Ultimate!Outcomes!

Reduced inappropriate sexual language, behaviour

& exploitation!

Workshops  and  webinars  for  chari6es    

1.  Developing  IntervenCon  manuals  

2.  Serving  the  right  people  

3.  Developing  a  logic  model  

4.  Defining  IntervenCon  AcCviCes  

5.  Monitoring  IntervenCon  Fidelity  

6.  Specifying  resources  needed  for  intervenCon  

Challenges  and  lessons  from  real-­‐world  trials  

•  Securing  Buy-­‐in  

•  Gefng  the  logic  model  clear  

•  Refining  the  intervenCon  

•  Balancing  the  numbers  

•  OperaConal  issues  

•  Managing  expectaCons  

The  benefits  of  real-­‐world  trials  

•  Increase  capacity  to  replicate  interven6ons  (manuals,  logic  models,  fidelity  tools,  evidence-­‐base  of  what  works)  

•  Building  knowledge  and  capacity  of  delivering  evidence-­‐based  interven6ons  

•  Help  to  reach  a  high  standard  of  evidence  about  the  impact  on  young  people’s  lives  

•  Agract  funding  to  enable  replicaCon    •  To  ulCmately  reach  more  children  and  allow  them  to  realise  

their  ambiCons!  

Contact  Details:  •  Nick  Axford  –  Principal  InvesCgator  for  the  trials  (naxford@darCngton.org.uk)    

•  Sarah  Heilmann  –  Trial  Manager  for  YMCA  Scotland  and  Ariel  Trust  (sheilmann@darCngton.org.uk)    

•  Georgina  Warner  –  Trial  Manager  for  Chance  UK  and  Malachi  (gwarner@darCngton.org.uk)    

 

Websites:  •  Social  Research  Unit:  hgp://darCngton.org.uk    •  PrevenCon  AcCon:  www.prevenConacCon.org    •  Journal  of  Children's  Services:  hgp://darCngton.org.uk/projects/jcs